*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (12 Viewers)

[Doug B]

There was a 2-3 week period sometime in Feb/March in between OG Omicron and the first variant where transmission levels were extremely low. That's not even 6 months ago. What can't that be the bar we strive for before essentially telling people it's over?

Right -- between March 18 and April 6, 2022, the 7-day average of detected cases stayed below 30,000 (Worldometers).

My answer to your question in red is two-fold:

1) So far, detected COVID case counts have never gone down to a low level and stayed there -- they've always gone back up. I'd expect COVID to soon settle in to a seasonal pattern of some kind and that will mean there will always be a rise coming in the future. If we say that "OK, it gets down to 30,000/day, then we can relax" ... what happens when it rises back to 35,000-40,000 or more? In other words, there's no indication of what precisely that "time to relax" low level will be -- and how long it will need to be sustained to get to that "relax now" status.

But more importantly ...

2) Society at large is not waiting for anyone to tell them that "it's over". And IMHO, that's something that can't be changed. Furthermore, this was always the way societal response to the COVID pandemic was going to end. Not by an "all clear" from up on high, but from millions of individual decisions made at the ground level.

In March 2020, enough people felt unsafe so that there was a critical mass of individuals that were amenable to the closings and the restrictions and to masking and the various adjustments society made to the pandemic. Things have been changing progressively, going different paces in different places, ever since.

The CDC is made up of human beings, too, and their 2020-21 guidance memos were never meant to a set of forever conditions. Society at large will move past COVID, regardless of the presence of some number of people who don't feel ready at the individual level. I think the CDC recognizes this, and has thus started to shift guidance from the national and community levels to the individual level. From "protect society, the health care system, the vulnerable, etc." to "protect yourself and those you care about / do what's best for your situation".

 

[Doug B]

YLE's reaction to CDC's guidance update:

This is a fantastic article from Dr. Jetelina. Many money quotes peppered throughout, and here's one that gets at the heart of Scoresman's question:

Individual vs. population. The CDC continues to go down the path of individualization. In other words, people need to make their own decisions. This is a very medical perspective. This is a very American perspective. This is not a population health perspective. This will leave people behind.

Despite what I just wrote above ... I recognize that Jetelina is completely right about the part in red.

 

[humpback]

And IMO the new guidelines are fine for when there are low levels of transmission happening. Which is pretty much the opposite condition of what's happening right now.

Hard to be certain of this ... but it might be that the current level of COVID transmission is pretty much what "low levels" are going to be. Detected cases are gradually dropping now, as are hospitalizations and ICU admissions. The one metric left to follow is deaths.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're suggesting, but I disagree. I'm talking about the community transmission rates. There's no way this can be acceptable the "normal" levels going forward. Or I should say it shouldn't be. I mean, I don't see how it could be much higher than it is right now, to be honest. This is virtually the whole US currently showing as "High" transmission risk levels.
According to their criteria for that, that means (for their chart): New cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days >= 100 ---or--- Percentage of positive NAATs tests during the past 7 days >= 10% (*If the 2 indicators signal different levels, they take the higher of the two)

These rates were much lower before BA5. I don't remember when they flipped the map they were advertising and started looking at "Community Levels" but it was around the time just before BA5 hit, IIRC.

If we tested for the common cold I bet you we would have similar levels of transmission as covid right now.

Sure, but not sure how that's relevant here.

It isn't, some people just want to keep going down with the "it's just a cold" ship I guess.

 

[culdeus]

Kids school is allowing asymptomatic positives and symptomatic negatives to attend masked. Same for teachers. Will have rapid tests available for those that want them. So got that going for us.

 

[Scoresman]

Kids school is allowing asymptomatic positives and symptomatic negatives to attend masked. Same for teachers. Will have rapid tests available for those that want them. So got that going for us.

There's already a teacher shortage. Maybe they'll all wake up when there arent any teachers at all because they're all home sick with COVID.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

YLE's reaction to CDC's guidance update:

A reaction to the CDC guidance

Yesterday, the CDC released much anticipated guidance for COVID-19. In all, the guidance is much more “relaxed,” as headlines are detailing. It’s difficult to organize my million thoughts, but here are a few: 1. Goal. I appreciated that the CDC clearly defined their goal: reduce severe disease...

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

• Leave isolation after 5 days. We see strong evidence (here, here) that an Omicron infection lasts, on average, 8-10 days. Peak infectiousness is around day 4/5, as demonstrated from an FDA study released earlier this week. While the guidance did state to wear a mask after 5 days and/or avoid high-risk people, this narrative has already been lost.
• Community Levels map to mask. This map tells us when to take collective action so hospitals don’t surge. This does not tell us when to wear a mask for individual protection due to high transmission. If we are trying to prevent severe disease, those at most risk should know when they are at risk for infection.

The leaving isolation after 5 days without a test just makes zero sense. That’s the main thing I have an issue with. Because people are going back to work and school and won’t be perfect in masking and nobody around them will either. Just require a test to leave prior to 10 days.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Kids school is allowing asymptomatic positives and symptomatic negatives to attend masked. Same for teachers. Will have rapid tests available for those that want them. So got that going for us.

Crazy times. Our schools start end of this coming week or first of next week. As far as I can tell, zero prevention measures. I fully expect everyone who hasn't gotten it in the last 2 months or so to get it. We have decent remote learning capability, I am just hoping we can keep the teachers/staff in place for minimal disruptions to learning.

 

[culdeus]

Kids school is allowing asymptomatic positives and symptomatic negatives to attend masked. Same for teachers. Will have rapid tests available for those that want them. So got that going for us.

There's already a teacher shortage. Maybe they'll all wake up when there arent any teachers at all because they're all home sick with COVID.

I mean this may happen but ba5 is really a two or three day illness tops.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

https://twitter.com/sciencemagazine/status/1558287261594157058?s=21&t=_Y_cJnGmUNUYfnWLPOx8rw

Monoclonal antibody SW186 can neutralize all #SARSCoV2 variants of concern, including Omicron subvariants, and SARS-CoV-1, finds new @SciImmunology research in mice.

 

[:deadbevo:]

YLE's reaction to CDC's guidance update:

This is a fantastic article from Dr. Jetelina. Many money quotes peppered throughout, and here's one that gets at the heart of Scoresman's question:

Individual vs. population. The CDC continues to go down the path of individualization. In other words, people need to make their own decisions. This is a very medical perspective. This is a very American perspective. This is not a population health perspective. This will leave people behind.

Despite what I just wrote above ... I recognize that Jetelina is completely right about the part in red.

Time to be left behind.

 

[:deadbevo:]

It isn't, some people just want to keep going down with the "it's just a cold" ship I guess.

If you aren't over 60... pretty much.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

My great aunt survived COVID (pre-vaccine era) at age 102, so hopefully I have her genes.

 

[humpback]

Kids school is allowing asymptomatic positives and symptomatic negatives to attend masked. Same for teachers. Will have rapid tests available for those that want them. So got that going for us.

There's already a teacher shortage. Maybe they'll all wake up when there arent any teachers at all because they're all home sick with COVID.

I mean this may happen but ba5 is really a two or three day illness tops.

Incorrect, but even if it were true, what about the next variant, or the one after that, or....

It isn't, some people just want to keep going down with the "it's just a cold" ship I guess.

If you aren't over 60... pretty much.

I can't wait until you guys are finally correct about it being "just a cold". Sincerely.

 

[culdeus]

Kids school is allowing asymptomatic positives and symptomatic negatives to attend masked. Same for teachers. Will have rapid tests available for those that want them. So got that going for us.

There's already a teacher shortage. Maybe they'll all wake up when there arent any teachers at all because they're all home sick with COVID.

I mean this may happen but ba5 is really a two or three day illness tops.

Incorrect, but even if it were true, what about the next variant, or the one after that, or....

It isn't, some people just want to keep going down with the "it's just a cold" ship I guess.

If you aren't over 60... pretty much.

I can't wait until you guys are finally correct about it being "just a cold". Sincerely.

BA5 has barely pushed the hospital needle up at all, and the death rate is basically at March 2020 levels. If it wasn't a cold by now when do you say it is?

 

[Scoresman]

Kids school is allowing asymptomatic positives and symptomatic negatives to attend masked. Same for teachers. Will have rapid tests available for those that want them. So got that going for us.

There's already a teacher shortage. Maybe they'll all wake up when there arent any teachers at all because they're all home sick with COVID.

I mean this may happen but ba5 is really a two or three day illness tops.

Incorrect, but even if it were true, what about the next variant, or the one after that, or....

It isn't, some people just want to keep going down with the "it's just a cold" ship I guess.

If you aren't over 60... pretty much.

I can't wait until you guys are finally correct about it being "just a cold". Sincerely.

BA5 has barely pushed the hospital needle up at all, and the death rate is basically at March 2020 levels. If it wasn't a cold by now when do you say it is?

There's no such thing as "long cold". To me at least, that's the difference maker. Once effective treatments for long Covid come out, it's a hell of a lot closer to being just a cold.

 

[humpback]

Kids school is allowing asymptomatic positives and symptomatic negatives to attend masked. Same for teachers. Will have rapid tests available for those that want them. So got that going for us.

There's already a teacher shortage. Maybe they'll all wake up when there arent any teachers at all because they're all home sick with COVID.

I mean this may happen but ba5 is really a two or three day illness tops.

Incorrect, but even if it were true, what about the next variant, or the one after that, or....

It isn't, some people just want to keep going down with the "it's just a cold" ship I guess.

If you aren't over 60... pretty much.

I can't wait until you guys are finally correct about it being "just a cold". Sincerely.

BA5 has barely pushed the hospital needle up at all, and the death rate is basically at March 2020 levels. If it wasn't a cold by now when do you say it is?

When they're actually comparable- when the hospitalization rate, death rate, illness severity, longer term effects, or several other metrics are in the same ballpark as the common cold.

 

[PinkydaPimp]

Welp. Covid finally caught up to me. Just took my first pavlovid dose. Hoping this thing is mild. Just feel like im coming down with a cold at this point. No fever or anything.

 

[jobarules]

There was a 2-3 week period sometime in Feb/March in between OG Omicron and the first variant where transmission levels were extremely low. That's not even 6 months ago. What can't that be the bar we strive for before essentially telling people it's over?

At that time people like you were saying that wasn't good enough and transmission should be below 10k cases per day before we can say it's over.
It's never enough

 

[Doug B]

CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 825,929 on 1/13/2022, and was provisionally 124,206 on 8/1/2022. The U.S. had been on a steady case-count rise from June 20th, 2022 through late July. Starting the week of July 25, 2022, the 7-day case numbers have slowly started to decline. A 7-day average of around 132,500 has served as sort of a glass ceiling that case counts skirted, but did not manage to break through. The BA.4/BA.5 "surge" is still looking like a low hill and not a spike -- and furthermore it appears we are starting on the downside of that hill.

There is no doubt about the part in red anymore -- the case count 7-day averages are declining now and have been for over two weeks (since July 26th). It's no longer accurate to speak of 'surging cases' or 'rising cases', though I don't expect the popular media to let go of such characterizations just yet. EDIT: It is, so far, a slow decline ... though a decline all the same -- just not a spike-the-football decline, exactly.

COVID ICU admissions and general inpatient admissions have also declined in each of the last two weeks, as well -- and the week ending yesterday represented an increased pace of decline over the week ending August 7th.

All that's left to decline is deaths ...but they'd been moving in the wrong direction through the first week of August, with the 7-day averages knocking on the door of 500/day with recent adjustments. I am curious if any of the sustained death rates are being fueled by the waning effects of the third shots -- many under 50 years old are something like 10+ months past their most recent booster shot. Really hoping deaths start following the falling hospitalizations trend.

 

[Doug B]

There's no such thing as "long cold".

This is not true to my experience. I posted the following in this thread on May 26th:

Thinking about "long COVID" some:

All throughout adulthood, I have struggled to get over symptoms of any respiratory infection. People conceive of the ordinary common cold as "a few days and then you're over it". For me, though -- any time I caught a bug that made me cough, that coughing would linger for weeks. Post-nasal drip and coughing for a month or so was typical, even from something with otherwise mild symptoms. Admittedly -- never checked for allergies, but there was no seasonality and was always tied to an obvious respiratory infection.

So ... looking back on it, I guess I was suffering sometimes from "long rhinovirus infection", sometimes "long enterovirus infection", and other times "long coronavirus infection". Whatever was going around at the time.

After a COVID infection, if I kept coughing for 4-6 weeks after other symptoms subsided, that would be textbook "long COVID", right? And as annoying as coughing is, it's not necessarily life-impacting (I mean, it can be but IMHO that wouldn't be the default situation).

Anyway, this all a roundabout way of getting to the idea that "long COVID" right now is being treated as never-before-seen thing AND is serving as a catch-all for all kinds of lingering effects. And that "shapelessness" of "long COVID" in the public discussion gets in the way of understanding the risks.

I don't want to know merely a percentage of "people having long COVID symptoms for 30 days after infection". I want to know about degrees of severity. Level of infirmity. Life impacts. Length of symptoms.

And not at the anecdotal level (" ... I know someone with brain fog ..."). Heck, I think I have "brain fog" myself -- or I'm just old and tired. How could I tell?

Don't tell me "30% of COVID patients develop long COVID!" Tell me that "1 in 7 report difficulty performing their normal work tasks". "1 in 200 report being unable to drive a car". "1 in 15 experience disordered sleep."

Lay out those life impacts. When does long COVID matter to the sufferer, and how often?

I hate getting headaches as much as anyone ... but if the aftermath of COVID makes me have to pop Advil three times a week for a few months afterwards, I can't really say I have "long COVID", can I? I'd probably be readily lumped into the long COVID statistics, though, if I raised my hand and reported "lingering headaches".

This article is also worth a read -- for The Atlantic, it's a brief read:

It’s Not Just Long COVID​

Society has been underestimating the long-term consequences of viruses, bacterial infections, and parasites for ages. (The Atlantic, 8/12/2022)

 

[Scoresman]

There's no such thing as "long cold".

This is not true to my experience. I posted the following in this thread on May 26th:

Thinking about "long COVID" some:

All throughout adulthood, I have struggled to get over symptoms of any respiratory infection. People conceive of the ordinary common cold as "a few days and then you're over it". For me, though -- any time I caught a bug that made me cough, that coughing would linger for weeks. Post-nasal drip and coughing for a month or so was typical, even from something with otherwise mild symptoms. Admittedly -- never checked for allergies, but there was no seasonality and was always tied to an obvious respiratory infection.

So ... looking back on it, I guess I was suffering sometimes from "long rhinovirus infection", sometimes "long enterovirus infection", and other times "long coronavirus infection". Whatever was going around at the time.

After a COVID infection, if I kept coughing for 4-6 weeks after other symptoms subsided, that would be textbook "long COVID", right? And as annoying as coughing is, it's not necessarily life-impacting (I mean, it can be but IMHO that wouldn't be the default situation).

Anyway, this all a roundabout way of getting to the idea that "long COVID" right now is being treated as never-before-seen thing AND is serving as a catch-all for all kinds of lingering effects. And that "shapelessness" of "long COVID" in the public discussion gets in the way of understanding the risks.

I don't want to know merely a percentage of "people having long COVID symptoms for 30 days after infection". I want to know about degrees of severity. Level of infirmity. Life impacts. Length of symptoms.

And not at the anecdotal level (" ... I know someone with brain fog ..."). Heck, I think I have "brain fog" myself -- or I'm just old and tired. How could I tell?

Don't tell me "30% of COVID patients develop long COVID!" Tell me that "1 in 7 report difficulty performing their normal work tasks". "1 in 200 report being unable to drive a car". "1 in 15 experience disordered sleep."

Lay out those life impacts. When does long COVID matter to the sufferer, and how often?

I hate getting headaches as much as anyone ... but if the aftermath of COVID makes me have to pop Advil three times a week for a few months afterwards, I can't really say I have "long COVID", can I? I'd probably be readily lumped into the long COVID statistics, though, if I raised my hand and reported "lingering headaches".

This article is also worth a read -- for The Atlantic, it's a brief read:

It’s Not Just Long COVID​

Society has been underestimating the long-term consequences of viruses, bacterial infections, and parasites for ages. (The Atlantic, 8/12/2022)

OK, but a lingering cough is not akin to months long brain fog, organ damage, permanent loss of smell/taste and other symptoms of long COVID. I too deal with lingering coughs after a cold and it's not really close to what could happen with long COVID.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Moderna's adjusted vaccine has been approved as the next booster in the UK.

 

[Doug B]

Moderna's adjusted vaccine has been approved as the next booster in the UK.

This is a more important news than it might have looked at first blush. This is the first bivalent vaccine to reach approval in the UK (and thus, the world).

Moderna's latest vaccine - called Spikevax - targets both the original strain and the first Omicron variant (BA.1), which emerged last winter. It is known as a bivalent vaccine as it takes aim at two forms of Covid.

The UK's Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency has considered the evidence and given the vaccine approval for use in adults.

Dr June Raine, the regulator's chief executive, said: "What this bivalent vaccine gives us is a sharpened tool in our armoury to help protect us against this disease as the virus continues to evolve."

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Moderna's adjusted vaccine has been approved as the next booster in the UK.

This is a more important news than it might have looked at first blush. This is the first bivalent vaccine to reach approval in the UK (and thus, the world).

Moderna's latest vaccine - called Spikevax - targets both the original strain and the first Omicron variant (BA.1), which emerged last winter. It is known as a bivalent vaccine as it takes aim at two forms of Covid.

The UK's Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency has considered the evidence and given the vaccine approval for use in adults.

Dr June Raine, the regulator's chief executive, said: "What this bivalent vaccine gives us is a sharpened tool in our armoury to help protect us against this disease as the virus continues to evolve."

and what I was interested to see, although they don't give numbers:

Levels of antibodies that were able to stick to and disable Omicron (BA.1) were 1.7 times higher in people given the new vaccine. Tests against more recent Omicron variants (BA.4 and BA.5), which are causing the UK's current wave, also showed higher levels of protection with the updated vaccine.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Moderna's adjusted vaccine has been approved as the next booster in the UK.

This is a more important news than it might have looked at first blush. This is the first bivalent vaccine to reach approval in the UK (and thus, the world).

Moderna's latest vaccine - called Spikevax - targets both the original strain and the first Omicron variant (BA.1), which emerged last winter. It is known as a bivalent vaccine as it takes aim at two forms of Covid.

The UK's Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency has considered the evidence and given the vaccine approval for use in adults.

Dr June Raine, the regulator's chief executive, said: "What this bivalent vaccine gives us is a sharpened tool in our armoury to help protect us against this disease as the virus continues to evolve."

and what I was interested to see, although they don't give numbers:

Levels of antibodies that were able to stick to and disable Omicron (BA.1) were 1.7 times higher in people given the new vaccine. Tests against more recent Omicron variants (BA.4 and BA.5), which are causing the UK's current wave, also showed higher levels of protection with the updated vaccine.

All good news. So when can we get it in the USA?

 

[Doug B]

All good news. So when can we get it in the USA?

News that totally snuck under the radar over two weeks ago: Biden-Harris Administration Secures 66 Million Doses of Moderna’s Variant-Specific COVID-19 Vaccine Booster for Potential Use in Fall and Winter 2022 (HHS.gov, 7/29/2022)

The bivalent booster that's being released in the US is aimed at Omicron BA.4 and BA.5, so it's coming out later than the UK's bivalent vaccine (built in part on Omicron BA.1).

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

All good news. So when can we get it in the USA?

News that totally snuck under the radar over two weeks ago: Biden-Harris Administration Secures 66 Million Doses of Moderna’s Variant-Specific COVID-19 Vaccine Booster for Potential Use in Fall and Winter 2022 (HHS.gov, 7/29/2022)

The bivalent booster that's being released in the US is aimed at Omicron BA.4 and BA.5, so it's coming out later than the UK's bivalent vaccine (built in part on Omicron BA.1).

So we opted to force Moderna to alter their formula to target BA4/5 specifically, rather than using their existing and ready bilavent formula that has good results against those. So we are going to be delayed on these until November or December, meanwhile folks under 50 haven't been boosted for almost a year now with the original vaccine. They should be recommending that 4th shot for all now, so that antibodies are up, and then boost with this for the holidays -- with fingers crossed some other non-Omicron related variant doesn't take over in the meantime.

And why was this news swept under the carpet???

 

[belljr]

I cant speak for everyone but numbers are falling again and pretty much everyone has basically "moved" on.... you'll see a mask here and there but thats about it.

 

[Scoresman]

I cant speak for everyone but numbers are falling again and pretty much everyone has basically "moved" on.... you'll see a mask here and there but thats about it.

Just in time for school to start. I'm sure the numbers will stay down... right?

 

[belljr]

Numbers didn't go up during school 2 months ago and summer camp has been in full swing so numbers are well below the peak numbers in may during  tha t surge

 

[Doug B]

So we opted to force Moderna to alter their formula to target BA4/5 specifically, rather than using their existing and ready bilavent formula that has good results against those. So we are going to be delayed on these until November or December ...

Looks like some of the powers-that-be are thinking it will be a lot sooner than that:

Updated COVID boosters could be available in 3 weeks, White House predicts (ABC News, 8/16/2022)

Newly updated COVID-19 boosters tailored to target a dominant strain of the virus will be available in the next three weeks or so, assuming the Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention work through their processes for authorization as expected, White House COVID coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha's predicted on Tuesday.​

​

In late June, the FDA directed Moderna and Pfizer to make vaccines for the upcoming winter that targeted the more contagious BA.5 omicron subvariant, along with the original COVID strain. That work has been underway and the next step is for the FDA and CDC to review data from the companies, once they've received it.
...​

So far the U.S. has contracted for 105 million doses of the newly-updated boosters from Pfizer and 66 million doses from Moderna, the two leading COVID vaccine manufacturers for the country. ​

(The 105 million doses from Pfizer ... that's news to me, as well - db)

... meanwhile folks under 50 haven't been boosted for almost a year now with the original vaccine. They should be recommending that 4th shot for all now, so that antibodies are up, and then boost with this for the holidays -- with fingers crossed some other non-Omicron related variant doesn't take over in the meantime.

I agree with the bolded, though I'm sure the 95%+ seroprevalence in the U.S. (as far back as February 2022) has given public health leaders some cover as they're attempting to thread the needle here.

And why was this news swept under the carpet???

The HHS did put out a press release, and a Google News search reveals that major news outlets did report on the 66 million dose purchase from Moderna (and the 105 million from Pfizer). In general, though, COVID happenings are no longer front-page news. I'm not even sure they're even second-page news these days. I listen to news radio a lot in the car, and it's not unusual to hear no COVID news at all for several days running. And when something COVID-related comes on, it's usually really quick so that they can return to whatever's bigger in the news cycle at the moment.

 

[Doug B]

Just in time for school to start. I'm sure the numbers will stay down... right?

At the national level, school openings haven't been correlated with rising 7-day case counts. Counterintuitively, the 2021 Delta surge started in earnest a week after July 4th, and peaked around Labor Day.

 

[nirad3]

I cant speak for everyone but numbers are falling again and pretty much everyone has basically "moved" on.... you'll see a mask here and there but thats about it.

About 5% mask usage at John Wayne Airport in OC Cali. Will be in Denver on a layover and will update with my estimate there.

For all intents and purposes we are masking up "here and there" too. Still in doctor/dentist offices and on public transit.

 

[PinkydaPimp]

Welp. Covid finally caught up to me. Just took my first pavlovid dose. Hoping this thing is mild. Just feel like im coming down with a cold at this point. No fever or anything.

Man that paxlovid works really well. Took the first dose sunday night. i really never had any symptoms kick in. Very low grade fever here and there. Felt like a cold would kick in but that went away. A little itch in my throat that feels like it could turn into a cough but thats backing off. Seems like i got a very mild version. Either that or it was starting the paxlovid basically immediately after testing positive. I am still testing positive however.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Welp. Covid finally caught up to me. Just took my first pavlovid dose. Hoping this thing is mild. Just feel like im coming down with a cold at this point. No fever or anything.

Man that paxlovid works really well. Took the first dose sunday night. i really never had any symptoms kick in. Very low grade fever here and there. Felt like a cold would kick in but that went away. A little itch in my throat that feels like it could turn into a cough but thats backing off. Seems like i got a very mild version. Either that or it was starting the paxlovid basically immediately after testing positive. I am still testing positive however.

Just watch out for the rebound.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I've made very clear on multiple occasions in this thread that I don't get worked up about other people's mask choices. However, if you're sitting in a doctor's waiting room and pushing yours down below your nose ... so that you can pick it, well, that's where I'm going to draw the line.

 

[PinkydaPimp]

Welp. Covid finally caught up to me. Just took my first pavlovid dose. Hoping this thing is mild. Just feel like im coming down with a cold at this point. No fever or anything.

Man that paxlovid works really well. Took the first dose sunday night. i really never had any symptoms kick in. Very low grade fever here and there. Felt like a cold would kick in but that went away. A little itch in my throat that feels like it could turn into a cough but thats backing off. Seems like i got a very mild version. Either that or it was starting the paxlovid basically immediately after testing positive. I am still testing positive however.

Just watch out for the rebound.

yup. how long after can the rebound come? or i guess should ask when do i know im past the rebound window?

 

[Scoresman]

I've made very clear on multiple occasions in this thread that I don't get worked up about other people's mask choices. However, if you're sitting in a doctor's waiting room and pushing yours down below your nose ... so that you can pick it, well, that's where I'm going to draw the line.

I was almost one of those people you see on YouTube getting kicked off flights a few months ago when I was in the same row as a lady who kept lifting her mask up to sneeze in her hand. There are some truly dumb people out there.

 

[Doug B]

(NOTE: Recent figures in the Worldometers graphs get large adjustments as much as two weeks after they first drop. Accordingly, I've waited ten days to let the last-week Monday (August 8st) numbers settle in. They will rise a bit more by next week's update, but it should only be by a small amount.)

---

Updating numbers to see where things have been standing recently from a top-of-the-mountain view. All figures below are 7-day averages from Worldometers U.S. graphs here. In the United States:


CASES ON THU 08/18/2022
Thu 01/13/2022 - 825,929 <--OMICRON SURGE 2022 HIGH
Tue 02/01/2022 - 425,029
Thu 02/17/2022 - 116,616
Mon 02/28/2022 - 62,205
Mon 03/14/2022 - 32,900
Sat 04/02/2022 - 27,635 <--2022 LOW
Mon 04/18/2022 - 40,890
Mon 05/02/2022 - 61,070
Mon 05/09/2022 - 81,590
Mon 05/16/2022 - 100,359
Mon 05/23/2022 - 110,982
Mon 05/30/2022 - 110,500
Mon 06/06/2022 - 107,055
Mon 06/13/2022 - 107,799
Tue 06/21/2022 - 100,094
Mon 06/27/2022 - 113,329
Mon 07/04/2022 - 115,444
Mon 07/11/2022 - 120,720
Mon 07/18/2022 - 132,481
Sat 07/23/2022 - 132,904 <-- SPRING/SUMMER SURGE HIGH
Mon 07/25/2022 - 132,122
Mon 08/01/2022 - 125,352 (124,206 on 8/11/2022)
Mon 08/08/2022 - 111,783 (101,034 on 8/11/2022)
Mon 08/15/2022 - 92,485 <--provisional count


DEATHS ON THU 08/18/2022
Sun 01/29/2022 - 2,757 <--OMICRON SURGE 2022 HIGH
Fri 02/18/2022 - 2,196
Mon 02/28/2022 - 1,751
Mon 03/14/2022 - 1,137
Mon 03/28/2022 - 635
Mon 04/11/2022 - 487
Mon 05/02/2022 - 338
Mon 05/09/2022 - 298
Sat 05/14/2022 - 281 <--2022 LOW
Mon 05/16/2022 - 289
Mon 05/23/2022 - 324
Mon 06/06/2022 - 341
Mon 06/13/2022 - 365
Mon 06/20/2022 - 317
Mon 06/27/2022 - 353
Mon 07/04/2022 - 368
Mon 07/11/2022 - 390
Mon 07/18/2022 - 421
Mon 07/25/2022 - 441
Mon 08/01/2022 - 450 (427 on Thu 08/11/2022)
Fri 08/05/2022 - 487 <--SPRING/SUMMER SURGE HIGH
Mon 08/08/2022 - 468 (392 on Thu 08/11/2022)
Mon 08/15/2022 - 360 <--provisional count

---

CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 825,929 on 1/13/2022, and was provisionally 111,783 on 8/8/2022. The U.S. had been on a steady case-count rise from June 20th, 2022 through late July. Starting from a peak on July 23, 2022, the 7-day case numbers have been declining. This decline has continued -- in fact, it is accelerating. The BA.4/BA.5 "surge" is going to turn out to be a low hill and not a spike in the U.S.

DEATHS: The 7-day average had dropped for 79 consecutive days from 2,756 on 1/29/2022 to 350 on Tue 4/19/2022. With adjustments, the 8/8/2022 number was 468. The 7-day average deaths on 8/5/2022 is the new spring/summer high, now adjusted to 487. There is, just now, a trace in the data that indicates 7-day average deaths are finally peaking: Provisional 3-days-past counts dropped from 392 to 360 on consecutive Mondays (8/8 and 8/15). The current 8/8 figure of 468 has had 10 days of adjustments and is now unlikely to surpass the spring-summer surge high of 487 (on Fri 8/5). Additionally, the most recent Monday figure of 360 is low enough now that eventual adjustments taking it past 440-450 are unlikely.

---

For comparison: Low-water marks in the U.S. from summer 2021, 7-day averages after the initial thrust of vaccinations and before summer 2021's Delta surge.

CASES: 12,265 on 6/21/2021
DEATHS: 245 on 7/8/2021

 

[PinkydaPimp]

So question here. I’m at 6 days. No real symptoms maybe a cough now and then and some phlegm. The new cdc says 5 days isolation and then just wear a mask if no fever. But if I’m still positive on a rapid do i still run the risk of getting the rest of the house sick? Or do i stay isolated until I’m testing negative?

 

[Doug B]

The new cdc says 5 days isolation and then just wear a mask if no fever. But if I’m still positive on a rapid do i still run the risk of getting the rest of the house sick? Or do i stay isolated until I’m testing negative?

Wearing a mask around the house (when not in your isolation space) is how you help prevent others in your house from getting sick, even if you're still testing positive.
In your shoes, I wouldn't be pushing it, though. Meaning that I'd mostly still stay in isolation while testing positive, but still get stuff out of the kitchen and do other quick things while wearing a mask ... but I wouldn't be parking myself in the living room with others for a movie marathon just because I was wearing a mask.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Welp. Covid finally caught up to me. Just took my first pavlovid dose. Hoping this thing is mild. Just feel like im coming down with a cold at this point. No fever or anything.

Man that paxlovid works really well. Took the first dose sunday night. i really never had any symptoms kick in. Very low grade fever here and there. Felt like a cold would kick in but that went away. A little itch in my throat that feels like it could turn into a cough but thats backing off. Seems like i got a very mild version. Either that or it was starting the paxlovid basically immediately after testing positive. I am still testing positive however.

Just watch out for the rebound.

Or Paxlovid Mouth

 

[nirad3]

I cant speak for everyone but numbers are falling again and pretty much everyone has basically "moved" on.... you'll see a mask here and there but thats about it.

About 5% mask usage at John Wayne Airport in OC Cali. Will be in Denver on a layover and will update with my estimate there.

For all intents and purposes we are masking up "here and there" too. Still in doctor/dentist offices and on public transit.

Denver airport about 5% too.

 

[PinkydaPimp]

Welp. Covid finally caught up to me. Just took my first pavlovid dose. Hoping this thing is mild. Just feel like im coming down with a cold at this point. No fever or anything.

Man that paxlovid works really well. Took the first dose sunday night. i really never had any symptoms kick in. Very low grade fever here and there. Felt like a cold would kick in but that went away. A little itch in my throat that feels like it could turn into a cough but thats backing off. Seems like i got a very mild version. Either that or it was starting the paxlovid basically immediately after testing positive. I am still testing positive however.

Just watch out for the rebound.

Or Paxlovid Mouth

i totally had this. Was a pretty bad taste but worth it considering it got rid of my symptoms.

 

[PinkydaPimp]

The new cdc says 5 days isolation and then just wear a mask if no fever. But if I’m still positive on a rapid do i still run the risk of getting the rest of the house sick? Or do i stay isolated until I’m testing negative?

Wearing a mask around the house (when not in your isolation space) is how you help prevent others in your house from getting sick, even if you're still testing positive.
In your shoes, I wouldn't be pushing it, though. Meaning that I'd mostly still stay in isolation while testing positive, but still get stuff out of the kitchen and do other quick things while wearing a mask ... but I wouldn't be parking myself in the living room with others for a movie marathon just because I was wearing a mask.

Yea this was my stance but the wife is getting "overwhelmed" so i will see how i test tomorrow but likely i will go out of isolation in my house. Im smoking a brisket as a "thank you for taking care of me" gift

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

2/3 of people are still contagious after 5 days of infection.

Stay home and stay masked if you’re still testing positive after day 5.

 

[Doug B]

Updated COVID boosters could be available in 3 weeks, White House predicts (ABC News, 8/16/2022)

Newly updated COVID-19 boosters tailored to target a dominant strain of the virus will be available in the next three weeks or so, assuming the Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention work through their processes for authorization as expected, White House COVID coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha's predicted on Tuesday.In late June, the FDA directed Moderna and Pfizer to make vaccines for the upcoming winter that targeted the more contagious BA.5 omicron subvariant, along with the original COVID strain. That work has been underway and the next step is for the FDA and CDC to review data from the companies, once they've received it.
...So far the U.S. has contracted for 105 million doses of the newly-updated boosters from Pfizer and 66 million doses from Moderna, the two leading COVID vaccine manufacturers for the country.

A little more detail about how and when the bivalent boosters from both Pfizer and Moderna will be rolled out:

Omicron-specific Covid booster shots are just weeks away. Here’s who will—and won’t—be eligible (CNBC, 8/20/2022)

Newly updated Covid booster shots designed to target omicron’s BA.5 subvariant should be available within in the next three weeks. That begs an important question: Who’s going to be eligible to get them?

The short answer: Anyone ages 12 and up who has completed a primary vaccination series, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention spokesperson tells CNBC Make It. It’s unlikely to matter whether you’ve received any other booster doses or not before, the spokesperson says — but if you’re unvaccinated, you won’t eligible for the updated formula until you complete a primary series with the existing Covid vaccines.

The longer answer is somewhat more complex, because it depends on which booster shots get approved and when.

Pfizer’s “bivalent” shot, which targets both the original Covid strain and omicron’s BA.5 subvariant, is expected to authorized first. The CDC says it’ll likely come with a wide eligibility swath: The full group of vaccinated Americans ages 12 and up.

Moderna’s bivalent shot is expected to follow suit later, most likely in October. It’ll come with a somewhat narrower range of eligibility, at least at first: vaccinated people ages 18 and older. For both shots, younger pediatric age groups could become eligible later, the CDC says.

Those projections are tentative, at least for now. A person familiar with the matter told NBC News on Wednesday that it’ll hinge on how much supply Pfizer and Moderna are able to manufacture and roll out by next month. If that supply is limited, the shots could first be available to those most at risk, such as the elderly and immunocompromised.

 

[Doug B]

A lot of people said they were waiting on Novavax because it was closer to traditional vaccine technology. The emergency authorization for adults came out last month, and now:

FDA authorizes emergency use for Novavax Covid-19 vaccine for ages 12 to 17 (CNBC, 8/20/2022)

• Novavax announced on Saturday that its Covid-19 vaccine has been authorized for emergency use by the Food and Drug Administration for adolescents between the ages of 12 and 17.
• In July, Novavax’s two-dose Covid-19 vaccine for adults ages 18 and over got its emergency approval from the FDA.

I'm keeping an eye on this one. I'll get my next booster as one of the mRNA bivalent shots that are coming out this fall (for me, it will be shot #5). In the near future, 2023 or 2024 or thereabouts when COVID boosters settle into an annual or semi-annual pattern, I'm going to seek out Novavax (provided the data shows that it performs well) to kind of "mix it up" and gain greater breadth of immunological memory.

 

[Doug B]

"Long COVID" federal response ramps up, with an NIH trial of potential treatments starting this fall (CBS News, 8/19/2022)

The National Institutes of Health is now hoping to launch its first big clinical trials of potential treatments for patients experiencing long-term symptoms from COVID-19 as early as October, according to a top federal official overseeing the plans.

It's part of the Biden administration's response to the millions suffering from long COVID, with initiatives expected to ramp up over the coming months.

[Dr. Walter Koroshetz, director of the National Institute for Neurological Disorders and Stroke] is part of the team that has helmed the NIH's RECOVER initiative to study the wide constellation of lingering symptoms grouped as "long COVID" or "post-COVID" conditions.

Those symptoms can include fatigue, shortness of breath, cough, "brain fog," insomnia, diarrhea, or loss of smell.

Apart from the hoped-for trials of treatments for long COVID, RECOVER has already enrolled close to 7,000 volunteers — and conducted 50 autopsies — to build out an understanding of the lingering effects of the disease, Koroshetz told CBS News.

It's good to see also that these efforts are getting bipartisan support on Capitol Hill, spearheaded by Virginia Senator Tim Kaine:

Senator Tim Kaine, who has long been a proponent of funding long COVID efforts, said he was optimistic Capitol Hill might be able to devote more money to the issue – despite other long-stalled COVID-19 requests from the White House.

"In terms of the bipartisan nature of this, in the long COVID space, I feel like I've got really good support on both sides of the aisle, in both houses," the Virginia Democrat told CBS News earlier this month.

Kaine — who has spoken out about suffering from long COVID symptoms himself — was among three Democrats to introduce a bill to fund more long COVID efforts back in March. Kaine also cited the spending bills for next year, released last month by Senate Democrats, which include proposals to fund more research at the CDC and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

 

[Doug B]

What's behind the FDA's controversial strategy for evaluating new COVID boosters (NPR, 8/18/2022)

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is using a controversial strategy to evaluate the next generation of COVID-19 boosters ... For the first time, the FDA is planning to base its decision about whether to authorize new boosters on studies involving mice instead of humans.

...

The United Kingdom just approved a new booster that targets both the original strain of the virus and the original omicron variant, called BA.1 — a so-called bivalent vaccine.

But the FDA rejected BA.1 bivalent boosters last spring. Instead, the FDA told the vaccine companies that make the mRNA vaccines, Moderna and Pfizer and BioNTech, to develop bivalent vaccines that target the dominant omicron subvariants — BA.4 and BA.5 — in the hopes they will offer stronger, longer-lasting protection.

That's why the FDA decided to use a new, streamlined strategy for testing the new boosters. The agency is asking the companies to initially submit only the results of tests on mice. Regulators will rely on those results, along with the human neutralizing antibody data from the BA.1 bivalent booster studies, to decide whether to authorize the boosters.

The companies will continue to gather more data from human studies; those results probably won't be available until late October or early November.

...

The new [boosters] will be identical to the original vaccines except it will contain genetic coding for two versions of the protein the virus uses to infect cells — the protein from the original vaccine and proteins from the BA.4 and BA.5 omicron subvariants.

And some scientists say health officials know enough about how vaccines work to start handling the COVID-19 vaccines like the flu vaccines, which are changed every year to try to match whatever strains are likely to be circulating but aren't routinely tested again every year.