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Official Donald Trump for President thread (3 Viewers)

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Clinton should bring the last 10 Miss Universes with her and toss him a box of Tic-Tacs when they take the stage.  Trump will be too distracted imaging what it would be like to deliver some unwanted touching with his stubby little fingers to interrupt her answers.

 
If Hillary wins in a landslide, which I both expect and hope happens, her only mandate will be to repudiate Trump and Trumpism, whatever that is.   She's not leading in the polls due to any compelling message or charismatic leadership.
It's pretty hugely unlikely that the Democrats flip the House, so you probably don't have too much to worry about.

 
Clinton should bring the last 10 Miss Universes with her and toss him a box of Tic-Tacs when they take the stage.  Trump will be too distracted imaging what it would be like to deliver some unwanted touching with his stubby little fingers to interrupt her answers.
:lmao:

If she actually wanted to get down into the muck with him she could bring the Central Park Five.  Guaranteed to throw him off and get him talking about stuff that hurts him.  He can't seem to stop himself when it comes to those guys.  I assume she will just be playing it safe, though. No reason to start throwing haymakers when you're ahead on the scorecards.

 
Electoral map blues



How Trump has slumped in battleground polls


http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2016/10/electoral-map-blues

"Without Florida, Mr Trump’s chances of winning the presidency dwindle to 5%, reckons FiveThirtyEight, a data-journalism outfit."

"Betting-market odds that the Republicans lose control of the Senate have tracked Mr Trump’s polling slump, rising 28 percentage points in the last month and now standing at 72%."

Poll: Clinton up 5 points over Trump in Arizona

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/19/arizona-poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/92399780/

How Donald Trump Hacked the Politics of Foreign Policy

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/20/world/americas/donald-trump-foreign-policy.html

The Trump Afterlife

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/19/opinion/campaign-stops/the-trump-afterlife.html

 
We've all heard the line about how someone is playing checkers and his or her opponent is playing chess.  I think Hillary is playing checkers and Trump is playing Onslaught.  I'm not really sure anyone but him knows the rules, but I can't really look away.

 
:lmao:

If she actually wanted to get down into the muck with him she could bring the Central Park Five.  Guaranteed to throw him off and get him talking about stuff that hurts him.  He can't seem to stop himself when it comes to those guys.  I assume she will just be playing it safe, though. No reason to start throwing haymakers when you're ahead on the scorecards.
Part of me wants to see her go for it.  Make history.  Go for 73-9, even if it means risking blowing a 3-1 lead in the Finals.

Whoops.  Sorry.  Wrong thread.

 
We've all heard the line about how someone is playing checkers and his or her opponent is playing chess.  I think Hillary is playing checkers and Trump is playing Onslaught.  I'm not really sure anyone but him knows the rules, but I can't really look away.
:lmao:

Over the weekend an old friend of mine who supported Jeb Bush in the primaries and will vote for Gary Johnson summed it up similarly: "Hillary is running the wishbone, but Trump is playing Calvinball."

 
As someone who lives in Utah, no one has ever spoken with so much conviction about something they know so little about as Tonydead has in the last two pages about Utah voting.

Trump may very well win and is probably still the small favorite here, but mormons have exited from him en masse.  :lmao:ing the Deseret News a page back just shows he doesn't know wtf he's talking about.  The Deseret News is a huge deal here, particularly with mormons, and they have urged their readers (pretty much 100% of mormons) to not vote for Trump.  Pastors are out there in their congregations telling people not to vote for Trump, and these folks will generally do anything their pastors tell them.  The state's Republican congressmen and Republican governor have all unendorsed Trump.

It's true that Mormons are very unlikely to vote for Hillary and will go 3rd party instead.  But when you remove Mormons from the Republican side the state loses its red majority (most of the rural folks are Mormon), so it really comes down to whether a small percentage of mormons will still vote for Trump against their leader's wishes or whether a very small percentage of mormons will still vote for Trump against their leader's wishes.

 
@EmersonPolling


UTAH Topline @Evan_McMullin 31% @realDonaldTrump 27% @HillaryClinton 24% @GovGaryJohnson 5% Undecided 12%
 
Part of me wants to see Hillary stay out of the muck tonight. 

But another part of me would very much like her to ask Trump why he mocked deaf actress Marlee Matlin on his show and called her ######ed. 

 
No, but Trump is going to let her have it.  He is not going to just sit there and let talking points define him like Romney.  It will make for an entertaining evening.  Both candidates are a mockery to the Republic, so let's enjoy the ride.   
Meh.  Trump's takedowns are usually of the school recess 'poopy head, I know you are but what am I, she started it!!' variety.  

Hillary's allowed to speak as well, in case you forgot, and of the two people that are going to let the other one have it, one has significantly more ammo.

 
Part of me wants to see Hillary stay out of the muck tonight. 

But another part of me would very much like her to ask Trump why he mocked deaf actress Marlee Matlin on his show and called her ######ed. 


High above the mucky-muck, castle made of clouds,
There sits Wondergirl, sitting oh so proudly.
Not much to say when you're high above the mucky-muck.
Yeah, yeah.
Wondergirl, what is the secret of your power?
Wondergirl, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck man?

 
Clinton should bring the last 10 Miss Universes with her and toss him a box of Tic-Tacs when they take the stage.  Trump will be too distracted imaging what it would be like to deliver some unwanted touching with his stubby little fingers to interrupt her answers.
Based upon stories coming out this week would Trump be the most distracted person on that stage?  

 
I pretty much don't understand the single issue mindset at all, so that's probably my disconnect. I understand and respect the pro-life position, even though I disagree with it; voting solely on that issue is something that I'll just never understand.
It's not that hard to understand though. For many people, supporting abortion, even early term abortion, is supporting murder.

Whether or not we agree with it is immaterial, it's a pretty strong position to take, and doesn't leave a lot of room. They believe abortion is murder.

 
Trump has an opportunity tonight to put everything up to this point behind him and have a truly defining moment.  If he gets out there and just crushes it, everything that happened before is kind of forgotten.  In our TMZ-ADD WhatHaveYouDoneForMeLately culture it would be the moment that makes him a credible and believable candidate.  It'd be the best slow-play in the history of slow-plays.  That said, he strikes me as a guy that over the years has surrounded himself with smart and somewhat shady people that condense complex data down into digestible chunks that he can understand.  He doesn't have to think on the fly or instantly counter-punch in daily life, and that's a skill that can dull over time if not used.  

The thing I'm most looking for tonight though is for him to show me that he wants this.  I'm not a fan of Hillary's, but you can see she wants this and she's worked hard to be prepared for these debates.  I'd like to see that from Trump.  Earn my vote dude.

 
It's not that hard to understand though. For many people, supporting abortion, even early term abortion, is supporting murder.

Whether or not we agree with it is immaterial, it's a pretty strong position to take, and doesn't leave a lot of room. They believe abortion is murder.
No, I get that -- what doesn't make sense is thinking that a vote in a Presidential race is going to make any kind of difference, and more specifically, thinking that voting for Trump in this election somehow could potentially make a difference. As I mentioned earlier, we had a conservative majority on the SC for decades, and Roe still stands. The President really doesn't have anything at all to do with the legality / illegality of abortion.

 
Trump has an opportunity tonight to put everything up to this point behind him and have a truly defining moment.  If he gets out there and just crushes it, everything that happened before is kind of forgotten.  In our TMZ-ADD WhatHaveYouDoneForMeLately culture it would be the moment that makes him a credible and believable candidate.  It'd be the best slow-play in the history of slow-plays.  That said, he strikes me as a guy that over the years has surrounded himself with smart and somewhat shady people that condense complex data down into digestible chunks that he can understand.  He doesn't have to think on the fly or instantly counter-punch in daily life, and that's a skill that can dull over time if not used.  

The thing I'm most looking for tonight though is for him to show me that he wants this.  I'm not a fan of Hillary's, but you can see she wants this and she's worked hard to be prepared for these debates.  I'd like to see that from Trump.  Earn my vote dude.
:lol:

 
Trump has an opportunity tonight to put everything up to this point behind him and have a truly defining moment.  If he gets out there and just crushes it, everything that happened before is kind of forgotten.  In our TMZ-ADD WhatHaveYouDoneForMeLately culture it would be the moment that makes him a credible and believable candidate.  It'd be the best slow-play in the history of slow-plays.  That said, he strikes me as a guy that over the years has surrounded himself with smart and somewhat shady people that condense complex data down into digestible chunks that he can understand.  He doesn't have to think on the fly or instantly counter-punch in daily life, and that's a skill that can dull over time if not used.  

The thing I'm most looking for tonight though is for him to show me that he wants this.  I'm not a fan of Hillary's, but you can see she wants this and she's worked hard to be prepared for these debates.  I'd like to see that from Trump.  Earn my vote dude.
If I was inclined to give a rofl emoticon and walk away, and I'm not, it would be to this post right here.

 
Based upon stories coming out this week would Trump be the most distracted person on that stage?  
Given Trump is the one who has bragged about sexually assaulting women, at least a dozen women have come forward confirming his claim, and he's tried to defend his actions by more deeply objectifying women... I'm going to go with Trump.  You know, the one who has bragged about successfully getting away with making unwanted sexual advances towards women.  

 
Trump hasn't prepared for any of the debates, and won't start now. The format of this debate doesn't play to his strengths, if there was one it would have been the last one and he got no bounce from it.  The thought he could somehow take this moment, and own it and flip the whole election is stupid. The only thing that could flip this election is it comes out that Hillary ordered murders and is caught on video doing so.  

 
The betting pattern that signals a Trump presidency isn't as remote as the world thinks


Tuesday 18 October 2016

The bookmaker cuts odds on a Trump win from 11-2 to 4-1 over the past two days after a betting surge Getty
It is news that will strike fear into the hearts of perhaps half of America and large chunks of the world outside of it. 

Despite a calamitous week of campaigning, betting markets on the US election are almost a mirror image of those on Britain’s EU referendum at this stage. And they could be pointing to a victory for Donald Trump. 

Bookmaker William Hill says 71 per cent of the money so far staked is for Democrat Hillary Clinton. But 65 per cent of the bets by number are for the controversial Republican.

Trump effectively rejects US election result before votes have even been counted
That means a lot more punters are putting smaller bets on Trump, almost exactly the same pattern as was seen in the run up to the Brexit vote when the money was for Remain but the majority of bets were for Leave.

The bookie has cut the odds on a Trump victory from 11-2 to 4-1 over the past two days in response to a surge in bets for the reality TV star and businessman turned politician. 

It comes despite a campaign bedevilled and derailed by ugly accusations of sexual abuse on the part of Trump from a growing list of women, together with his claims that the election is somehow being “rigged”. 

William Hill’s spokesman and resident betting expert Graham Sharpe, an industry veteran of 44 years standing, said: “It’s very, very similar to the Brexit vote. There is a metropolitan media bias that says Trump can’t win, but they can’t vote. In betting terms, this is not a done deal. I see parallels with the Brexit vote at this stage.” 





Republican leaders backing away from Donald Trump after lewd remarks





Mr Sharpe, the author of more than 25 books, mostly on the betting and racing industries, continued: “Some of the larger number of small bets on Trump can be explained by odds. When you have odds of 1-8 or 1-9 as you do on Clinton it’s not so interesting to the small punter. You tend to get bigger bets. We had one woman walk into a Northumbrian betting shop to stake £170,000 at 1-8 to win £21,250. She came in the next morning to stake another £13,200 to win £1467. She’d never placed a bet before but said she saw it as an investment.

“Trump at 4-1 or 11-2 will attract the smaller punters. But I don’t think that is only reason for the number of bets on him, and we have had to cut the odds on Trump three times in the last couple of days. This isn’t over.” 

FiveThirtyEight in the US, which uses statistical analysis to produce a percentage chance of winning for each candidate, now rates Clinton at 88 per cent, based upon her widening lead in the polls, and at 85 per cent using its polls plus model.

 
Clinton’s lead in national US polls, and in the battleground states that are the keys to victory, have firmed amid continuing revelations over Trump’s past behaviour and his increasingly erratic public statements. 

However, Fortune magazine noted that the Brexit vote showed “polls aren’t as accurate as you think”, even as many US media outlets were declaring that Clinton’s lead of seven points and rising made her all but “unbeatable” with three weeks of campaigning to go. 

Is this the most ridiculous presidential campaign of all-time?
William Hill’s odds suggest otherwise. They put Trump's chance of winning at 20 per cent and rising. One reason to take note of that: William Hill doesn’t have that many American clients. The odds therefore reflect what people without any horse in the race think will happen. Punters may have latched on to the similarity of the forces behind Brexit and the rise of Trump. They include years of flat or falling incomes, popular discontent with the establishments of both countries and a desire to make them pay. 

John Mappin, the hotelier and part of the family that founded jeweller Mappin & Webb, stands to make £103,000 from the bookie should Trump win. Mr Mappin, who owns Camelot Castle in Cornwall, has already made a substantial profit from backing him to take the Republican nomination at 20-1. 

“I’ve only ever placed one bet – this one,” he told The Independent. Explaining that his conviction was based on conversations with Americans and his experience working in the country, he continued: “I was on baby duty with my son when I watched Mr Trump announce his candidacy. I saw the media had got it wrong. They were saying the guy has no chance. They were saying he’s doing this for a joke. That’s not the case. His supporters, they’ve been watching media bull#### for years and they see through it. Polls are very rarely reliable. I am more confident than ever that Mr Trump will win. ”

Those who view that prospect with horror can take some comfort from the fact that the odds say Trump is still a long shot to win the presidency. He’s just a lot less of a long shot than you might have thought.

  • More about:
  • Doanld Trump; Brexit; EU referendum; US elections
  • Hilary Clinton
  • William Hill
 
What's the word/trigger for the :banned: game tonight? Don't say sniffles!
Definitely *DISASTER* if you want to get hammered/wasted.

* You could have just an ounce of beer per use and still be in John Bonham/Keith Moon alcohol poisoning territory.    

 
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Trump hasn't prepared for any of the debates, and won't start now. The format of this debate doesn't play to his strengths, if there was one it would have been the last one and he got no bounce from it.  The thought he could somehow take this moment, and own it and flip the whole election is stupid. The only thing that could flip this election is it comes out that Hillary ordered murders and is caught on video doing so.  
So you're saying there's a chance!

 
The betting pattern that signals a Trump presidency isn't as remote as the world thinks


Tuesday 18 October 2016
745802-official-donald-trump-for-president-thread
 The bookmaker cuts odds on a Trump win from 11-2 to 4-1 over the past two days after a betting surge Getty

Same thing happened with Romney, it ultimately led to the shutdown of InTrade. 

If anyone wants to take 4-1 odds I'll book it.

 
The major difference between a baby in bassinet and one in the womb is that the first has been born alive.  Which has been the threshold for when the law (and even religious law predating the common law) has protected a human life from the prohibition against murder for centuries.  Whether you recognize it or not, being born is a BIG difference.  Biologically (the child is no longer completely dependent on the mother), socially, and legally. 
I've long held myself relatively neutral on this subject. I have zero issue with early term abortion, and a lot of issues with late term abortion except under the most extreme circumstances (fetus unviable with significant defects or extreme danger to the mother). The danger to the mother caveat is a red herring though, because late term dangers to the mother can almost always be solved via a normal c-section and rarely would require a true abortion.

But using birth as the moment when rights start is more about convenience then common sense. If the baby is fully viable and no longer needs the support of the mother's uterus to survive, why is that life less worthy than one that has passed the birth canal? And does the born baby truly need less support? Can it feed itself, warm itself, ambulate? The truth is that the newborn requires MORE support from the someone than the fetus in the uterus. Certainly not all rights can be guaranteed in the womb, but ZERO rights is not logical either.

I don't think I'm alone in the idea that early term is OK, late term should be illegal (excepting fetus is unviable), and mid-term is ......uncomfortable. One can be pro-choice while open to discussions about reasonable restrictions. The difficulty is that pro-lifers in general aren't really looking for reasonable restrictions but outright bans. So we need to have this discussion among pro-choicers and recognize the rage they have over this issue. We can take their position into account while keeping the essence of free choice intact without being snarky or demeaning to their very real and (mostly) reasonable objections.

 
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Trump hasn't prepared for any of the debates, and won't start now. The format of this debate doesn't play to his strengths, if there was one it would have been the last one and he got no bounce from it.  The thought he could somehow take this moment, and own it and flip the whole election is stupid. The only thing that could flip this election is it comes out that Hillary ordered murders and is caught on video doing so.  
Putinleaks video of a Clinton sanctioned "maximal demotion"/"remaindering".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xG4RbB7RWKs 

 
I've long held myself relatively neutral on this subject. I have zero issue with early term abortion, and a lot of issues with late term abortion except under the most extreme circumstances (fetus unviable with significant defects or extreme danger to the mother). The danger to the mother caveat is a red herring though, because late term dangers to the mother can almost always be solved via a normal c-section and rarely would require a true abortion.
Kind of in the same boat myself.  I've always looked at it as if someone asked me my opinion on it I'd put abortion as the last resort.  But I'm also not going to be the guy that tells a 13 year old rape victim that she can't get an abortion because my opinion is more important than hers.

 
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