thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I agree take the Julio side easily, but Watkins is worth 3 Agholors. Some WR4 might outperform Watkins going forward, but I really don't think it will be Agholor.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (30 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
I normally don't care much ... but I'm really curious of the teams involved.
roster makeup? PPR? Contender trading picks to a rebuild?
Denver724
Footballguy
Sorry. Standard PPR. 26 man rosters (2 IR). 6 pt rushing and receiving TD.
Total Starters:10
Number of Starting QBs:1
Number of Starting RBs:1-4
Number of Starting WRs:3-5
Number of Starting TEs:1-3
Number of Starting Defs:1
Team getting DH finished last. Team getting 1.01 picking at the .05 spot (finished 8th).
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One More Rep
Footballguy
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
The Future Champs
Footballguy
Team B, but it's a reasonable trade.
Reason:. Hopkins is more than a 1.01, and the rest of the trade isn't quite enough to make up for that gap.
JPeso
Footballguy
I would be careful assuming that you could get more for AJG in an established dynasty league, when only 2-3 teams are probably interested in paying that type of value for him. Any team in a halfway rebuild mode isn’t touching him. If the most competitive teams have enough strong performers, I doubt they are dealing a younger player valued around that early 1st for AJG’s services - I know I wouldn’t.
So while it seems a given you can get more than an early future 1st, AJG is likely going to rot on an uncompetitive team until next offseason where this guy is not closer to competing, doesn’t have his early 1st, and then he sells him for less than the early 1st that he traded to get him.
JPeso
Footballguy
This one is Hopkins either way, no matter either team’s makeup IMO. Hopkins still young enough where he is an impact guy for years to come.
JPeso
Footballguy
Landslide to Julio. The guy almost dropped 1500 in a year of missed opportunities. Always had a soft spot for Sammy but in no way am I selling Julio where there are 10 other WRs around Sammy you could get much cheaper than dealing a prime asset like Julio. Guess I need to be a Julio buyer where I don’t have.
jeaton6
Footballguy
You’re contradicting yourself here as AJG/Julio had similar years (are less than 1 year apart with similar value) and this haul is >>> alleged “early” 2019 1. There was an AJG deal just below your posting that showed what AJG can still pull.
In established leagues contenders will definitely pay more than 2019 1 (he’s at worst a 2nd round startup pick next year). Confused by your 2-3 teams that would pay that kind of value for him comment.
JPeso
Footballguy
Not at all. I’m not paying an early 2019 1st for Sammy Olsen 1.12. Two entirely different deals. Can’t value Sammy as more than 1.7-1.8 range. Olsen a mid 2nd at very best.
~1.3 > 1.8, 1.12, 2.6
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Funny, just a short 2-3 weeks ago, I feel like everyone wanted to move up to 1.
I get the feeling that as folks watch the Guice's, MIchel's, Chubb's, Jones' etc, they realize it's likely not worth the overpayment to mvoe up.
Id love Saquon as much as the next guy, but Ive always maintained the tier drop is nowhere near what some think/thought it was.
Think the moves for the 1 will definitely start to slow down
I get the feeling that as folks watch the Guice's, MIchel's, Chubb's, Jones' etc, they realize it's likely not worth the overpayment to mvoe up.
Id love Saquon as much as the next guy, but Ive always maintained the tier drop is nowhere near what some think/thought it was.
Think the moves for the 1 will definitely start to slow down
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I think his point was that while greens perceived value by the community may be X it will vary League to League. In every dynasty league you have contenders and rebuilders (and maybe a flounder or two that make lateral moves every year). Rebuilding team shouldn’t be targeting green at this point, and a there are probably 4-5 legit “contenders” that could want him. Say 1-2 if those teams have solid depth, that leaves maybe 2-3 teams bidding on his services. There are always statements like “oh just flip this for this and you’ll be contending in no time” but there’s never a guarantee that there is someone willing to deal on the other side.
jeaton6
Footballguy
1.12 in 2017/Sammy/Olsen < 2019 1 that “could” be early? Don’t get this at all. If this was guaranteed top 3 it might Be closer but this 2 years out this is completely random.
JPeso
Footballguy
Different strokes, I guess. I've amassed a lot of value over the year trading for future 1sts that "appear" early and end up early. I also play solely in FFPC now so maybe that is slanting me, as I can attest to roster space being important, having 3 assets instead of 1 asset with sharp cut downs - wouldn't have been able to pick up next year's Drake and Collins had I had Sammy/Olsen/rookie on the roster.
In the end, I do think you are off with your contradictory statement, as I prefer one strong asset (ETA, i.e. the early 1st in 2019) (even if I did deal it for Cooks, THill, etc.) versus three maybes.
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JPeso
Footballguy
Better said than I! I can't tell you how many times people assume that you can get ADP-type value in an established league. You buy an aging asset assuming you can use him and then deal him when convenient for you, and it just doesn't work that way when you may only have a few teams interested in paying the exit price you THINK your guy is worth.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Also, while the prevailing thought is “draft picks increase in value closer to the draft” it’s not really always the case. If you have the 1.01, you probably aren’t going to accept a deal that takes you out of the top 5 in addition to other assets (player, additional 1st). There may only be a couple teams that have the ammo to make such an offer, so the timing may not really matter so much in that case.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
A 2019 pick is really one year out at this point - there will only be one season completed between now and that draft.
ETA: As I stated the 2019 pick came from a team that finished 3-10 and earned pick 1.01 in the upcoming draft. Since that team will add Barkley and now AJ Green, I would expect it to be better in 2018. If I had to guess it will be 1.03-1.04 but as we know (and you're implying) you never really know.
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steelers1080
Footballguy
Team A Gives: Aaron Rodgers
Team B Gives: Philip Rivers, Carlos Hyde, Cooper Kupp, Kenneth Dixon
Team B Gives: Philip Rivers, Carlos Hyde, Cooper Kupp, Kenneth Dixon
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Seems pretty steep for a QB upgrade (but I like Kupp a lot and Hyde more than most).
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Unless there is some crazy scoring for qbs. I don't like Hyde that much and think Kupp is okay and would still take the Rivers side by a mile.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
My guess is the difference is actually the fact you are in the league and have a much higher confidence level that the pick is truly going to be early. Maybe the owner that got him doesn't have the ability to work other teams and get proper flip value for AJG. Or his roster is really bad and even if he gets good player value or keeps AJG that pick can't get very late.
I know I've made trades for future picks that looked like locks to be early only to have the owner pull out some unlikely stuff. Pick up Collins from waivers, trade a future 3rd for Robert Woods before the breakout, had Wentz already on the roster, etc. I had one owner's pick that looked like one of those sure fire early picks up until a perennial contender decided to tear his team down, traded most of his assets to the guy, and he ended up in the playoff and the pick was 1.08.
I've also made trades for what I knew would be lock early picks - I have gotten Gurley x2, Elliott, and now Barkley x2 from other guys' picks. So I get the temptation. It just all depends on your confidence in the pick.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
I am really surprised by both of these responses, from people who have each earned my respect on these boards as excellent posters. I must value Rodgers way higher than you guys. I would take the Rodgers side by a mile. Rivers strung together some good games at the end of the year, but overall has seemed to me like a borderline starter for a while now. Hyde is OK, Kupp is OK, both are replaceable pieces. Rodgers is a weekly game-changer, and a piece that can win you your league even if the rest of your team is not stellar. He is 2 years younger than Rivers, and a far better fantasy QB than Rivers.
This is why trades happen - people valuing players completely differently.
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Would gladly pay this if Rivers was my only good QB and the rest of my team was stacked. I own Kupp almost everywhere and am ambivalent to Hyde. Either Kupp or Hyde should be enough but worth it if it puts your team over the top.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Thanks for the kind words, mine thoughts are that I can find a qb that will give me top 10 numbers while flipping Kupp and Hyde for something I want.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Agree completely. To me this comes down to startup values for me. If I were drafting a team today I'd take Rodgers over Hyde, who is next but pretty close. Kupp is a nice piece but doesn't close the gap and RIvers really doesn't move the needle here.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Rivers finished 8th in QB scoring (admittedly not a difference maker but solid enough). I see Kupp as a guy coming off a solid rookie season who should grow with a young QB in what looks like a great offense. If SF keeps Hyde around he'll also be in a top offense and has been a solid performer when healthy - I think 2018 could be his best season.
Rodgers averages about 4-8 ppg more than Rivers and is only two years younger.
Looking at it again after reading your post I probably should not have labled the price as "steep" and I may over-rate Kupp and Hyde a bit as I can see your point as to them being "replaceable", but I still take that side as I don't see Rodgers as much of a difference maker as you do. QB production is not that difficult to find.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Ppr 1/2/3/1111
Gave 1.01
got 1.03 1.10 AR15 crowder
Gave 1.01
got 1.03 1.10 AR15 crowder
NeverEnough
Footballguy
I like the Team B side. I traded Rodgers before the season ended for Goff & the 1.01
Wow, thats a great haul for the 1.01! I just offered Jordy, J. Williams and A. Jones to the AR15 owner in my league and flat out rejected. He's a huge Packers fan who also has TyMont. So to get him, pick 3, pick 10 and Crowder is huge value. Even better if you're already stacked at RB and needing WR help.
Funny enough, I'm team B and that trade leaves me with Rodgers, D. Watson, Mahomes and Bortles at QB. I'm going to be shopping Rodgers but might wait another while. His value is pretty low in my league at the minute for whatever reason.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I’m not stacked at rb but now have 1.03/1.04 to take a couple good ones. Simply too much value to move back 2 spots.
As a 1.1 owner and big fan of Barkley it would be very hard to turn that one down, that said I'm also a fan/believer in both Robinson and crowder
Zyphros
Footballguy
Not a big fan of Mahomes and I think you can get one of Rosen or Darnold at 1.06 so I'll take that side as more talented QB prospects, plus the lottery ticket QB in McCarron.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Great move.
How many roster spots? It's close, but assuming 25+ spots, I think I'd take the parts.
Depends on the format and rosters for me. 6pt passing TDs or 14+ teams--I lean Rodgers.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I'd rather have Mahomes than Rosen or Darnold and would have no problem taking him at 1.6 if he was in the pool in a Superflex. Not sure how to value giving up McCarron, I don't like him but he is more than a flier given teams are interested in him. Worth it if you are a believer in Mahomes.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
4-8ppg is a TON.
4ppg is the difference between Golden Tate and Odell Beckham. 8ppg is the difference between Tate and Antonio Brown.
4ppg is the difference between Lamar Miller and Shady McCoy. 8ppg is the difference between Lamar Miller and Zeke.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Good God delete this, I am trying to buy the 1.01 in a few of my leagues with 1.02 or 1.04 and I wouldn't pay that much and I don't want any of my league mates getting anhy ideas.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It was actually only 2 ppg last season but that included the game Rodgers got hurt early - so I "estimated". I would imagine it's closer but point taken.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
He originally offered crowder, but I wanted Robinson but was going to shop. He offered Robinson and I countered with all of it basically saying if you want it come get it otherwise let’s talk closer to the draft and I’ll shop it in the meantime. It took him about 5 mins to accept. I also have the 1.04 so I have lots of options.Good God delete this, I am trying to buy the 1.01 in a few of my leagues with 1.02 or 1.04 and I wouldn't pay that much and I don't want any of my league mates getting anhy ideas.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I think the last few years with gurley, zeke, and the rookies last year everyone sees quon and sees what an impact a feature back can make.
jeaton6
Footballguy
You are probably forgetting about the number of times that projected early 1 worked out to not be so early. That said I get the strategy of dealing for projected future early 1sts but this is 1.5 years in advance with a long way to go.
Move 2019 1 projected early for cooks/Hill? Not a deal anyone I know would make.
Agreed FFPC can make a big difference regarding roster cut downs but don’t understand how a 2019 1 that is only projected early could be > Watkins, 2018 1.12 and Olsen and in particular how it is > AJG. AJG in all of my established leagues would take Minimum of 1.4 but probably more like 1.2 or 1.3. If I were a contender I’d buy for 1.3/1.4 (worth much more than 2019 1) but not sure I’d be able to get him for that. If I were rebuilding/reloading I’d autoaccept moving my entire future 2019 draft for him knowing I could move him for more unless the league dynamics were such that trading is difficult to do (most aren’t) or I was planning on completely tanking 2018 and knew my pick was the 1.1.
Sometimes we are planning a rebuild but things work out differently. These types of value wins can help accelerate things and kickstart your team much more quickly than a pick 1.5 years down the road.
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battlestar
Footballguy
12 Team PPR 1/2/2/1flex/1te
Small bump for return yards (and return TD's)
gave Tyreek and D Cook
got D Hopkins and Tarik Cohen
Small bump for return yards (and return TD's)
gave Tyreek and D Cook
got D Hopkins and Tarik Cohen
