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I meant never in any of my leagues. Of course I'm not saying he never fell there in any FFPC leagues. I already knew that NE got him there. I also realized after I posted that I took him in 3 of those leagues so that skewed my numbers.. I still think him being there at 12 was pretty rare. Maybe 20% chance?
I don't hate it, I do think it's a little cheap for Kamara though. Especially if he signs long-term.
Preston runs the risk of being a clogger as well, I don't disagree, but the ceiling is way higher than Brown to me
I know some like both of those rookies (I don’t, but that is a different story) but boy I find it hard to believe that the Kamara owner could not have got more than that.
I agree with this comment. Roughly a 1.04 and the 1.07 for Kamara.....dunno.
I am in five FFPC non-SF leagues and he never made it past 1.08 in any of them. 1.08 in four of them and 1.06 in one.
Actually, their speed score correlates quite extensively with total yardage success in the pros. They call it the Arian Foster graph.
Not a fan...need more than this to deal Kamara...Swift is a nice piece but if Johnson stays healthy that could be a RBBC for the next two years...as for Vaughn there's a lot of downside there...a lot of his value is where he got drafted and if Brady can not trust him he will be buried and if he is just Ok this year I gotta believe they bring in another quality RB to capitalize on the short Brady window...just don't see enough upside in this deal to give up a top 10 fantasy asset.
Opinion wrapped up like a fact and with respect to that opinion I'll side with Brett Veach, Andy Reid, most ex-NFL scouts working in the media and me.
I'd bet if most people broke down the parts of this trade like this they would not thought to have a Henderson vs Parker section.
A) Speed score is wildly different than Hunt running a 4.66, contrary to the naysayers that it's the same. It's not. It's BMI measured against your forty time. Edwards-Helaire is one of the shortest, lightest backs at the combine and couldn't break 4.6
This makes no sense. Clyde's bmi is HIGHER than Hunt's. So his speed score should be better then, right?
Sorry, I have BMI on the brain because of EBF's post.
I'm surprised by Hunt's low score. Usually the cut off for studs is their Arian Foster cutoff, with a speed score of around 91. Nobody scoring that low has been as productive, from my understanding. He's the outlier below the threshhold of 95. He's the 1.3% of guys you'll see being successful in the graph I link below.
I am the team receiving Hill and thought it was fair. I don’t have Henderson anywhere near Parker value. I’m in a two year rebuild and not sure how I feel about CEH and thought I’d take the surer thing with Hill. I have four 1sts this year and three 1sts next year.
its definitely fair. Would depend on team needs for me but stud RBs are still king. If CHE becomes that you lose, but on the other hand you know what you got with Tyreek.
I felt it was a pretty deep draft and there would be good players (like the 3 u listed) available there and would have been fine taking one of them (probably Higgins). Definitely feel fortunate, in 5 other fpc rookie drafts he went as early as 6 but never later than 11. (ftr, a non DCook owner took Mattison at 1.10 smh)
Age-based production (a huge one), recruiting (which actually matters at RB and MUCH less at other skill positions projecting to the NFL). Yes, BMI is a factor (it's actually part of my formula) but raw weight is also a blended factor. So if you are lower in weight, yes shorter is better which helps CEH, but you would still rather have a guy who is 210, 215, 220+ than 200 or 205 historically. And the biggest thing is having the other options this year in the other top backs. If CEH were in the class last year with Henderson, Singletary, etc, sure no problem, post him at RB1 and move on, but this year is far different.
I agree with this too. I like Jarwin a lot, my only concern with him is whether there are enough targets to go around in Dallas. This isn’t a TE premium league, so I didn’t mind adding him to the deal to make it happen. Hard to estimate on the 1st. I could see him winning it all or not making the playoffs, so I’d put it as a mid 1st.
I don't fully agree with this...it is not just about landing spot (Vaughn would be an example of that)...it is the fact one of the best organizations in football used their first round pick/drafted CEH with every other RB on the board...that counts more to me then what "draft experts" think...this is not a fourth round pick going to a good situation, it is much deeper then that.
I've always been much higher than the consensus on CEH, but there has certainly been new information to come out since some people had him further back. The "better than Brian Westbrook" quote isn't just something people suddenly started saying. It's something that one of the best RB evaluating head coaches in the NFL said while putting his money where his mouth is. That is markably noteworthy new information.
Ruggs is obviously different because he was pretty clearly drafted in the NFL to fill a different role than what fantasy drafters are looking for. Andy Reid is looking only for production with CEH which directly aligns with FF goals. The Raiders drafted Ruggs knowing they get a lot of value out of him even when he's not catching the ball, which is useless to fantasy owners.
That is not what I am getting at...you are being generic...my point is that CEH was not just the first RB taken, he was taken by one of the top organizations in football...that carries weight with me.
I don't really like this trade at all. The 2 best players are on one side for a small upgrade in picks, an injury prone TE, injury prone WR on the down slope of his career, and 2 rookie RBs that may never amount to anything.
I feel this was an overpay for Moore. I guess it depends on your team and what you are doing but new coach, new QB that doesn't push the ball much, and a RB that gets 100 targets regularly.
People were very high on Sony pre-draft.
I did not say that in a general way...if a subpar franchise took CEH in the first it would not have anywhere near the influence like a team like KC.
For the record, I did move up CEH post-draft. The biggest reason was going 32 overall instead of 60-90 overall where many mock drafts, etc had him estimated pre-draft.
Personally I'm not in a league that follows this calendar. If I were, I'd just do my best with the information available.
In general wading into the Patriots RB swamp is usually more of a fantasy headache then a plus.
While everything you are saying is correct, you are forgetting what Andy Reid has done for RBs and he actually values CEH that high. Go back and look at how many years Reid has had a top 10 RB on his team. All of the time. And he is calling CEH a better Bryan Westbrook. I think he believes the benefit of the doubt with his track record. Also, passing means the world to KC, along with the fact that he will face 6 man boxes all of the time. You guys are looking at stats way too much at this point.rockaction said:
