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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (38 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
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One More Rep
Footballguy
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Footballguy
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Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
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Footballguy
Jordy is a sell for me but I would want a better deal
Like the side getting Riddick in 2nd deal
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northern exposure
Footballguy
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Ertz missed 2 games, so from a PPG standpoint, Ertz outproduced Olsen.
For 2017, I expect Ertz to outproduce Olsen again. 32 is typically the beginning of the end for TEs.
One More Rep
Footballguy
You are probably counting week 17 but my leagues and most out there end on week 16. I have Olsen at over 13 points a game and Ertz at 11 points a game. Ertz had a big week 17 which means nothing at all to me and to most fantasy players.
It was still an NFL game indicative of the future therefore it should have value when looking ahead to 2017. Whether that game falls into our fantasy seasons is purely coincidental. The Wentz-Ertz connection is looking strong going forward while Olsen has reached an age of decline. Nobody should view an Olsen-Ertz trade at this point as a win for the Olsen owner.
One More Rep
Footballguy
It has value but we are talking about who had a better point per game avg. Weeks 1-16 Olsen did by over 2 points, but one big game after the fantasy season ended changed that. I own Ertz a bunch and have Olsen nowhere so I hope you are right.
I think everyone uses the full season when considering ppg. The aggregate stats we use never exclude week 17. That game may not have helped you, but on the NFL season, Ertz still scored more fantasy ppg than Olsen.
One More Rep
Footballguy
On the NFL season yes Ertz scored more, but on the Fantasy season Olsen scored more 
Hankmoody
Footballguy
That explains your comment. I was pretty surprised to see such a strong preference for the Evans side. I get preferring Evans, just not "by a long shot".
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Not really, just think about why many leagues intentionally avoid playoffs in week 17. Lots of teams rest their starters or fire their coaches. Banged up guys are even more banged up the last week of the season. Rookies wear out. Guys in a contract year avoid taking risks - play less to avoid injury, or be more cautious with a bruised knuckle in a meaningless game than they would if they were fighting for playoffs. Plenty of reasons to discount one outlier game.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
But that's irrelevant when looking forward (as already stated) - unless you think Ertz will disproportionately score more every season on Week 17.On the NFL season yes Ertz scored more, but on the Fantasy season Olsen scored more
buck naked
Footballguy
FFPC league - trade between two posters on this message board.
Mike Evans, 2017 picks 1.7 and 3.3
for
David Johnson, Dorial Green-Beckham, 2018 1st (pick could be anywhere between 1.1 - 1.10)
Mike Evans, 2017 picks 1.7 and 3.3
for
David Johnson, Dorial Green-Beckham, 2018 1st (pick could be anywhere between 1.1 - 1.10)
garlicduck
Footballguy
I'll take the Evans side as I like the longevity of WRs and I think DGB is a bust...getting the 1.7 is sweet also.
One More Rep
Footballguy
I guess I am the only one who thinks this way, but I think it's relevant if a player is outscoring another the whole season that counts for us fantasy players
One More Rep
Footballguy
And there are plenty of reasons to discount Ertz's slow start. But he only had 2 games in his last 9 with less than 6 receptions. The Wentz-Ertz connection should not be discounted due to a strong week 17. Ignore week 17 and his last 8 games still total 50/527/2 which are pretty damn good numbers.
I honestly don't know how much Dallas rested their defense, which is pretty important, right? Maybe you know and can share. Either way, the guy got 16 targets from his rookie QB. That's a good sign in my book no matter who is defending him.
It is relevant when you're playing fantasy football in 2016, but it's not relevant when you're making trades in 2017 or planning for the future. Bottom line: a 27 yo Ertz is likely to outproduce a 32 yo Olsen next year.
Warhogs
Footballguy
I'm not familiar with the starting requirements of a FFPC league. Without knowing that I say this trade seems pretty fair and it would seem one team needed a top RB and one a top WR. I prefer the David Johnson side slightly because I think there are so few dominant RB left these days but you do probably pay for it with less years of top level play.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I don't know, and that's point #1. Who has time to go evaluate that and adjust formulae for it? Point #2 is that even if so, the fact Ertz is doesn't mean all others are. So now you're not evaluating everyone equally. Maybe Olsen doesn't have his QB, or their OL is resting three starters, or they are auditioning a new RB and running disproportionately. Week 17 is the least equal ground on which to compare the entire population set. You point about the targets is point #3 - that was a season high, and only three times before had he gotten double digits of any kind. Maybe the OC is forcing the Wentz/Ertz connection to help it gel and that's not a standard game plan they run.
I'm a very, very big Ertz fan, and I would take him straight up over Olsen pretty easily, but week 17 isn't why.
I'm not saying it is why, either. It really shouldn't have been a big deal, but I was merely pointing out that Ertz did score more points than Olsen on a ppg basis in 2016 and week 17 was part of that. Ertz had just gotten 15 targets in week 13 and 13 targets in week 14, so it seems the 16 in week 17 was just more of the same. Just bad luck on his part that it happened in week 17 when everyone wants to write it off. There was a clear trend in the 2nd half of the season to get Ertz more involved.
JPeso
Footballguy
That was the thought - our steepest competition trots out a lineup of Cousins - Elliott / Gordon / Howard - Brown / Beckham / AJG - Gronk with Ingram, DMurray, and Allen on the bench, and he has finished 1st, 4th, 1st in the last three years. We placed 2nd, 1st, 2nd this year, and felt the 5-7 point upgrade was the only thing that was going to move the needle from 2nd to 1st with his lineup.
Leaves us with Julio / Cooks / Adams / Shepard at WR. Our lineup will (hopefully) jump 5-7 from Evans to David Johnson, and then sub out Crowell for Ertz, which should also provide a couple point boost.
Would have loved to pay a bit less, but added 3.3 for DGB as we had the space. Fine on losing a bit of value on the trade given the above factors, and now have 3 1sts next year and 2 2nds to backfill with value or use during the year.
I love me some pass catching RB's and for sure take DJ in redraft but if this trade was Evans for DJ I'd side Evans. The 1.7 and 3.3 vs DGB and future pick is not equitable to me, for sure prefer the 1.7 side.
So I like the main piece of Evans more and I like the side dishes that came with him a lot more as well.
Ertz vs Olsen.
I count week 17 only if I know or can absolutely recall that the team and their opponent did not rest a bunch of starters.
Ertz was banged up early and closed, as he usually does, strong. He played with a rookie QB who should get better. Take it a step further I think the QB situation for these two are going in different directions, Cam is regressing and Wentz is rising.
If they were the same age I'd lean Olsen, I give him incredible high marks for durability at a very injury prone position. But they are close enough that when one is 27 and one is 32 it's not even close, that's not just 5 random years younger, that' probably honey spot for TE production.
I count week 17 only if I know or can absolutely recall that the team and their opponent did not rest a bunch of starters.
Ertz was banged up early and closed, as he usually does, strong. He played with a rookie QB who should get better. Take it a step further I think the QB situation for these two are going in different directions, Cam is regressing and Wentz is rising.
If they were the same age I'd lean Olsen, I give him incredible high marks for durability at a very injury prone position. But they are close enough that when one is 27 and one is 32 it's not even close, that's not just 5 random years younger, that' probably honey spot for TE production.
About even. If I knew the roster of the future pick team and what the rest of the league looks like that would maybe sway my decision one way or the other. Since I don't, I would say Evans side by a smidge. If that 7 was more like the 9 or 10, it would be DJ side for me.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Even against a team basically tanking getting ready for the playoffs?
I dont count week 17 for all sorts of reasons.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Teams only roster 53 players and can dress 46 for the game - it isn't like the preseason where teams are facing guys that will be selling insurance in three weeks. How many defensive players do you think rested in Week 17, and is it really so easy to play against NFL direct backups anyway?
Do we discount weeks where a WR played against a depleted secondary missing 2-3 starters?
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Ask Cleveland's and SF's opponents. I'm guessing they say yes.
Dak hardly played and Elliott didn't at all. Dallas ran 50 plays from scrimmage to 73 for Philly. That's probably flipped if Dallas plays the starters just on offense. And there's a much higher likelihood of that happening in week 17 than just about all other weeks. I"m willing to bet most leagues have their championships in week 16 for this exact reason.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yes of course, but I don't think that's relevant for this discussion. They are two separate issues.
I do admit you made a good point about the other side of the ball (offense) resting their starters creating more opportunity for the opposing offense. More volume should equal more production.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Why not? They are avoiding week 17 because it's unpredictable. Disproportionately so compared to other weeks due to external forces that aren't exerting themselves during other weeks.
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
In a 10-team Best Ball PPR with IDP and deep rosters.
Randall Cobb
for
2.05
I probably sold too cheap but just don't think his weekly upside is very high for Best Ball (has scored over 20 points just twice in past two seasons) and already have really good WR depth.
Randall Cobb
for
2.05
I probably sold too cheap but just don't think his weekly upside is very high for Best Ball (has scored over 20 points just twice in past two seasons) and already have really good WR depth.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think we avoid week 17 because the good teams may be resting top fantasy players and it wouldn't be fair to some teams. Every week is unpredictable on some level.Hankmoody said:
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Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
12 team dynasty PPR
Team A gets Cam Newton,Julio Jones, Devante Parker, pick 3.6, 5.6
Team B gets Russell Wilson, Spencer Ware, Chandrick West, Jordy Nelson, picks 1.3, 2.6, 2.12
Team B owns pick 1.2, 1.3
Team A gets Cam Newton,Julio Jones, Devante Parker, pick 3.6, 5.6
Team B gets Russell Wilson, Spencer Ware, Chandrick West, Jordy Nelson, picks 1.3, 2.6, 2.12
Team B owns pick 1.2, 1.3
Warhogs
Footballguy
Warhogs
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
garlicduck
Footballguy
Cam over Wilson
Parker over muddled up Chiefs RB's.
Julio, 3.6,5.6 over 1.3, Jordy, 2.6, 2.12.
That's not likely how trade participants broke it down but kind of how I see and I see every single case a small to strong gain for team A.
garlicduck
Footballguy
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
He did look good in the playoffs. You may be right in that he is worth that but nobody is paying it from what I've seen. FWIW, I did a Twitter poll that has 130 votes and only 26% feel he is worth a 1st. Means absolutely nothing, I know. You can definitely argue that he is worth that much.
I like the side getting Cam, Julio, Parker as well. I still believe Parker is going to get better and better.
garlicduck
Footballguy
Hmmmmm...well you can only get what people will pay but I think a 2.05 is definitely selling low. He played hurt this year and he's still only 26 years old. At 2.05 you are going to have WRs like KD Cannon, Dede Westbrook and Malachi Dupre to choose from...give me Cobb.
DropKick
Footballguy
A machine that's often broken.
I like Eifert. I really do - but he isn't a top 3 dynasty prospect.
