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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (43 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
Spike
Footballguy
tex
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
garlicduck
Footballguy
12 Team PPR
Gave Michael Thomas and 1.12
Got Nuk
Gave Michael Thomas and 1.12
Got Nuk
ghostguy123
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
Another 16 team ppr
Team A: 2.14 + 4.01
Team B: Tarik Cohen
Team A: 2.14 + 4.01
Team B: Tarik Cohen
SieteCinco
Footballguy
I agree. A 1/1/2 sounds about right for AJG... but the value, IMO, is a lot less in a this case (16 team league)
1.09 is 1.09, but the 2.17 is the 34th overall pick (3.10 in a 12 teamer, and we have two losers bracket picks added in), and after acquiring AJG I’m hoping my 2019 1st is later (after a long rebuild, I’ll now have Luck/Watson/Rivers, Barkley/Kamara/MelvinGordon/Mixon, AJG/Hilton/Watkins/Diggs/Agholor/MikeWilliams, Olsen/Reed/Ebron).
So in terms of players actually being selected with those picks, I looked at it like AJ Green for 1.09, 3.10, and a 2019 pick that hopefully falls around 2.02-2.04. Just felt like I was missing something because the other owner is very good/DLF team member.
doowain
Footballguy
Thomas/1.12
Hopkins and Thomas are both Top 5 for me so I'd gladly take an extra 1st to swap.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I'll take Nuk. One guy who's proven elite regardless of who is QB is vs. one guy who's proven pretty good when playing with a hall of fame QB. To me 1.12 is independently worth an upgrade from "pretty good" to "elite" (Nuk outscored MT by 4ppg which is substantial) and is worth the safety in not having to worry as much about what happens at QB, so I'd definitely give it up to get both of those things.
doowain
Footballguy
Yeah Nuk really "proved he was elite regardless of QB" in 2016. When MT outscored him by 5ppg as a rookie.
Thomas has been WR7 and WR6 each year here's been in the league. He'd have likely been higher this year if the Saints didn't lead the world in rushing TDs. I don't get the "pretty good" label.
FF Wiseguy
Footballguy
12 team PPR
gave TY Hilton, Derrick Henry, 3.3
got Kamara, Crabtree, and 2.12
in win now mode as I think the league might not last more than a couple more years. Already have Luck and Doyle so a lot invested in that shoulder. Helps me diversify a little and give me a building block if I need to rebuild if the league continues.
gave TY Hilton, Derrick Henry, 3.3
got Kamara, Crabtree, and 2.12
in win now mode as I think the league might not last more than a couple more years. Already have Luck and Doyle so a lot invested in that shoulder. Helps me diversify a little and give me a building block if I need to rebuild if the league continues.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
16ppg is "pretty good". Hopkins has eclipsed 20ppg twice. Statistically MT was closer in ppg to Robby Anderson, Devin Funchess. and Nelson Agholor than he was to Hopkins. People often underrate the points difference in good fantasy players compared to great ones. Thinking "aww Michael Thomas was close enough to Hopkins ithey're basically the same" is like thinking "aww Nelson Agholor was close enough to Michael Thomas they're basically the same".
And of course that was with Hopkins playing with more than half the year with trash at QB. Needless to say his stats with Watson prorated out widened the gap even more.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I like it for you. Don't hate it for him.
Weird draft in 2018 where someone trades up for Ginn. Not to mention the younger players still on the board.
Mixon but I kinda get it if you think Mike Williams will bounce back.
Value is in the eye of the beholder but Goff seems a really good value there. I'll take him over Cam.
Too close to call imo.
So just ⅓ of the teams got swapped.
If I have decent depth I'll take nuk rather easily. actually either way give me nuk. Thomas is just outside my top 5 as we don't know what life after Brees brings.
Cohen. I'd need a difference maker to give him up with Nagy as his HC.
I like Henry and Hilton a lot but give me Kamara here.
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Heep
Footballguy
I think it really comes down to whether or not Thomas can up his TD numbers. If he hits double digits or at least closer, I like the Thomas side. Hopkins in 3 out of 5 seasons has scored less than both of Thomas’ seasons because he didn’t hit the big TD numbers like he did last year and 2015.
Hopkins stats did go up with Watson’s but it was only 1/2 ppg. His targets actually went down with Watson by 1 1/2 targets per game. I thought the same thing but was surprised it was that close.
Another interesting note is when the Texans were a playoff team and their D was better, Hopkins saw the drop in 2016. Thomas actually saw more targets and yards when the Saints defense was better combined with the best running game in the league.
Im the Thomas side of this deal. I told Duck I wanted more but I eventually settled because I am rebuilding and wanted another dart to throw at this rookie board (I have 6 picks in the 1st round in that league now). I think overall it was a good deal by both sides because his team is in a win-now mode.
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One More Rep
Footballguy
I will take a stab at this for you since seems everyone wants to poke fun
- wentz >> Ryan. Might be bigger gap overall with age.
- Bell/Connor >>> McKinnon. Bell best player in draft but some risk here.
- Crowder/ Woods < Tate/Crabtree. Age factor here but if in win mode, I like Tate and Crab way more.
- Njoku << Kelce. Age factor again but this year is Kelce for fun and probably next 3 by good margin.
- Casey/Mack < Brown/Jordan. Unless Mack goes back to DE, than goes other way. Why designation for him is so important in fantasy
- 4 picks <<< 1.6, 1.13, 3rd. Not sure how 1.13 in 12 team league. Must give bonus picks which drops 3.10 down a spot.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Good assessment. I'll go with a two step approach. First, who gets the real difference makers (including those I think will become DMs) in a 12 team normal league?
Only real DM A gave is Bell. Njoku could become one, as could Mack if DE.
Kelce, 1.06;Year 2018 Draft Pick 1.13
Under the "DM optimization strategy" give me what team A gave.
Second, the points approach. 1-10; 10 being reserved for the top 10 pick caliber players, 1 is waiver fodder.
Team A
8 Wentz, Carson PHI QB;
10 Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB;
4* Conner, James PIT RB;
4 Crowder, Jamison WAS WR;
7 Woods, Robert LAR WR;
7 Njoku, David CLE TE;
4 Casey, Jurrell TEN DE;
7 Mack, Khalil OAK LB;
2 Year 2018 Draft Pick 3.10;
2 Year 2018 Draft Pick 4.01;
4 Year 2019 Round 2 Draft Pick ;
4 Year 2019 Round 2 Draft Pick
That's 63 points
Team B
5 Ryan, Matt ATL QB;
7 McKinnon, Jerick SFO RB;
1 Conley, Chris KCC WR;
5 Crabtree, Michael BAL WR;
7 Tate, Golden DET WR;
9 Kelce, Travis KCC TE;
6 Jordan, Cameron NOS DE;
6 Brown, Zach WAS LB;
8 Year 2018 Draft Pick 1.06;
7 Year 2018 Draft Pick 1.13;
2 Year 2019 Round 3 Draft Pick
That's 63 points.
So that's a long winded way of saying this looks really even, just comes down to whether you'd prefer the fewer top players or a little more depth. Or how you value picks.
doowain
Footballguy
So you are basing your comparison of the two players on just one year? Why not compare them in 2016? Cherry picking, no?
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TheBottomLine
Footballguy
doowain
Footballguy
Care to elaborate why you prefer Hopkins to Thomas/1.12, but Thomas straight up for Evans?
One More Rep
Footballguy
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
Well, because I like Nuk that much more than either of them. Really the two Mikes are a toss-up in my mind.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
Evans but close enough. I fully expect Thomas to outscore Evans in PPR this year but long term give me Evans.
Guessing he doesn't like Evans as much as nuk?
garlicduck
Footballguy
12 Team PPR
Gave Watkins and Dalton
Got Kupp and Stafford
I had Luck and Dalton as my QBs and wanted an upgrade in case Luck is permanently damaged. I also have Evans, Julio, Landry and Alshon at WR so could afford to let Sammy go (plus the fact that Kupp may outperform Watkins).
Gave Watkins and Dalton
Got Kupp and Stafford
I had Luck and Dalton as my QBs and wanted an upgrade in case Luck is permanently damaged. I also have Evans, Julio, Landry and Alshon at WR so could afford to let Sammy go (plus the fact that Kupp may outperform Watkins).
doowain
Footballguy
Which is odd considering how similar they've been (up and down years, young QB).
And Evans is the youngest of the three.
To me, pulling the trigger on Thomas for Evans came down to QB situation and age. Brees is 39 with a 2 year contract. Thomas is 6 months older than Evans. If Thomas was 23, I'd have likely kept him. But he'll be 27.5 when Brees contract is up.
And given the Saints sudden prowess as a running team, I don't see Thomas having the same TD ceiling as Evans.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
Funny, I never really considered Evans and nuk to be all that similar but in many ways you're right.
I personally take Evans as my #1 dynasty receiver, but that's clearly a minority view right now.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Not bad, but I'd prefer Watkins and Dalton. But mostly because I've never had a problem getting good QBs fairly inexpensively. If it's tough to get top 10 types in your league the trade makes sense.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
drewd_21
Footballguy
That is one of cheapest prices for Barkley I've seen and if I was stacked at RB and running out nothing at WR I'd still be all over paying this price for him.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Agreed. Except there are no short offseason benches when the draft is going on. It goes back up to 20 after the cut down date with no max until right before the season starts
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Evans is an elite #1 overall WR season behind Hopkins, which is no small thing. Evans' career arc is really Similar to what Hopkins' was after 2016. A steady increase up to an elite season followed by a really disappointing one. The big difference is that we've already seen Hopkins bounce back to eliteness, whereas for Evans that is still a big question mark. So far it seems pretty clear that Hopkins' 2016 was a big outlier within the rest of his career arc. For Evans right now his really good season is the one that looks like the outlier. He may follow Hopkins' arc and bounce back big time this year, but again I'll take the guy that's already done that vs. the guy that we're hoping will do it. Because again, it's no small thing.
On of course, there's the fact that Hopkins is just now getting his young QB whereas Evans has had his all along.
Heep
Footballguy
I think the trade was dead even. Most rankings have one 4 and the other 5. I have them 3 and 4 because of their age vs. Antonio Browns. Do you really factor in age when they are both the same age during the season? Thomas turned 25 in March and Evans will be 25 in August. Doesn't really seem relevant to me.doowain said:
As far as the QB situation goes, Brees only signed a 2 year deal, but I wouldn't bet the house Jameis is in TB in 3 years. I'm an FSU fan and can admit he has to lower the TOs and improve their W-L.
Both are great players and it's really just a preference at this point.
Blick
Footballguy
I think this one is still a little heavy. The 1.07 should almost get you from 1.04 to 1.01 on it’s own.
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doowain
Footballguy
It's relevant in the sense that, although Evans has 2 more years experience, he's in fact younger. If Thomas was 23 (which he should be as a 2 year pro), I'd prefer Thomas. But since they are roughly the same age, I prefer Evans.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Have you seen the other deals the 1.01 has gone for? No chance I would of got anything done with 1.04 and 1.07 for 1.01.
doowain
Footballguy
It's clear you have a large crush on Hopkins. That aside, the question wasn't Hopkins vs. Evans. The guy said he preferred Thomas to Evans and Hopkins to Thomas/1.12.FreeBaGeL said:
So, clearly he's saying that Hopkins > Evans/1.12, which I find laughable. Do you?
ETA: This is all to say I actually do like Hopkins quite a bit. I own him in as many leagues as I own Evans. But I can't just ignore the roller coaster his stats have been on over the years. Sure, a lot of that is probably attributed to poor QB play (even though you stated he's thrived in spite of it), but what troubles me most is that his two elite years came when their defense was garbage and his targets were through the roof. I distinctly remember watching his fantasy line during games in 2015, surprised at how many times he was sitting on a dud at halftime, only to go for 100 yards and a TD in the second half while the Texans played from behind. What do you think will happen this year when Watt and Clowney are back to full health, they have Watson back and aren't going into the half of every game down 14-21 points?
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One More Rep
Footballguy
Sammygarlicduck said:
One More Rep
Footballguy
Blick
Footballguy
Understood and based on the offers I've seen on this forum and other places, I think you did fine. I just think that the value of 1.01 is very overinflated.
Recency matters but I do agree it's cherry picking to only focus on last year. Thomas averages more fantasy points in his career than Hopkins. Thomas has a fairly wide range on Hopkins in fantasy points per target. Both of these things hold true even if we removed Hopkins 2016 season.doowain said:
Thomas has been more consistent, Hopkins due to volume the higher upside. I got concerns that Hopkins target load will decrease, he's sort of had a perfect storm for high targets the last few years. Thomas on the other hand just got the most targets a WR has ever had with Brees so that's some concern as well but not as much to me since 149 is not an overly high number and like I was saying in last years trade thread(to a lot of disagreement) he's the best WR of Bree's Saints career and would be the most targeted one because of both how good he is and because the Saints run a TE friendly offense without a good TE.
All in all I felt the trade was close, but I'd have leaned Hopkins despite that pick 12 being incredibly fruitful for me the past few years.
