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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (33 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
jtd13
Footballguy
frae
Footballguy
I know the narrative is Jacobs is volume dependant but he only played about 60% of the snaps and had 60% of the carries. He did dominate goal line work and that will continue. Fading Jacobs because of Drake doesn't make a ton of sense to me because Jacobs will have that same 60% role with GL work, he will just continue to be unused in the passing game which caps his ceiling but he is going to have the same usage as last year.
jtd13
Footballguy
Yeah, you may be right. I just think to be a bonafide RB1, you need to either have a chance at healthy targets (e.g. Gibson or Ekeler), be the main runner and GL back on a great offense (CEH, Blount back in his rb1 season), or be a special talent (Chubb). I don't see any of those being the case for Jacobs.
If he gets cheap enough, I would be interested, but it seems like people are still valuing him similarly to early last season in trades (when it looked like he might get more passing work).
frae
Footballguy
It depends on cost as always, but he is going in the 5th round of startups right now and that is a price I think people should feel good about paying. If you can find people valuing him in that 5th/6th round startup range and can make a trade I think he is going to prove to be a solid asset still.
What's the IDP scoring? Is it big play or tackle heavy and is the scoring on par with the offensive side or is it an after thought. Bush to Chubb could be a really big downgrade with the wrong answers to those questions. For me that wouldn't matter too much as I much prefer Herbert over Lawrence due to actually doing it on an NFL field but if we are close in value there this could be a big loss.lardonastick said:
Atomic Punk
Footballguy
He was cut in most of my short bench leagues. Brings me back a few pages to the guy pumping the Gurley/Hilton side of a trade for Claypool.Oh how the mighty have fallen...in a move to cut down total players before our rookie draft traded...
Gurley and 2.9 for 2.7.
Tau837
Footballguy
12 team Superflex PPR league, but QB scoring is significantly depressed. Start 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 4F, 1SF, 1K, 1DST... so 96 RB/WR/TE players will start every week even if a QB starts in every Superflex spot. Startup draft begins in a couple weeks.
- Gave up 2021 Draft Pick 1.01; 2021 Draft Pick 10.01
- Got 2021 Draft Pick 1.02; 2021 Draft Pick 8.02
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Superflex aint really my thing but I would have wanted more to give up Mahomes from what I understand in SF
Tau837
Footballguy
Yeah, I mentioned that QB scoring is significantly depressed... for example, Mahomes ranked as #14 in ppg in 2020 and tied for #25 in 2019. He would certainly provide stability for the long term, but that is not the level of performance I want from the 1.1 pick.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
tombonneau
Footballguy
Same here. The beat on Zeke is that he's a 29 year old RB getting ready to put out to pasture. He's 25, a proven stud, on a top offense. I'm trying to figure out how to buy in both my leagues.
I am not sure I agree here. By that I mean the best player to have isn't necessarily the #1 overall guy if next year he drops to #50 and then the year after back to #30 then to #1. I am assuming you are looking at a non-QB based on your statement but is that really the best way to go? I want consistency for a long time if I am starting my team and getting the #1 high floor and high ceiling QB for the next 8 years seems like a good way to go. I just don't see a RB or WR that would be a better selection for that pick.
If I was trading the 1.01 in a startup I would want something more than two rounds of improvement from 10 to 8 (even if it was dropping back one pick). I would rather just get my guy. Who are you taking at 1.02?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He said QB scoring is depressed. Would you take Mahomes at 1.01 in a "start 1 QB" league, because the argument would be the same?
Possibly. Based on his PPG finishes I think it would be safe to assume he is going to be a top 20 overall guy every year. Is there anybody else that fits in that for the next 8 years? I haven't done an actual start up draft as all my startups are auctions so I haven't had to think about it in a draft mindset. I guess is CMC (with his injury risk) for the next 3 years better than Mahomes for the next 8 years? Kamara? Barkley? Adams (pre Rodgers issues)? Tyreek? Everyone has questions.
And even with QB scoring being depressed it is still a SF. Playing a QB in that spot should give you a higher floor week to week which also has it's advantages so it isn't a straight equivalent to a start 1 QB situation.
I guess my point is that just because I may think I am not taking the consensus guy at 1.01 (assuming it's Mahomes based on the comment) I would still want more than a two round improvement in round 10 unless I plan to still make more moves with the 1.02.
I guess my question to the OP would be what "level of performance" do you want from the 1.01? And who would provide that?
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
This is a terrible deal. That isn't even close to enough for 1.5. The bust potential in the 2nd round is incredibly higher than the 1st. This was a great trade for you. Hope you gave them the reach around too.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
The deal for Jacobs that cost the team Gibson/Diontae Johnson was too much for Jacobs but I honestly like this value. A lot of small pieces but seems fair for what Jacobs will give you. I'd have payed this.
lardonastick
Footballguy
D. White TB was #1 scoring LB @ 146 pts last year; #24 LB scored 105 pts last year.
D. Adams GB was the #1 WR last year @ 309 pts, #36 WR scored 155 pts.
Tau837
Footballguy
Glad to see this stimulated some discussion. A bit of background. This is a 12 team PPR league with these starting lineup requirements: 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 4F (R/W/T), 1SF (Q/R/W/T), 1K, 1DST. Since we have to start at least 8 R/W/T players x 12 teams each week, it seems very likely that the SF position will typically be a QB.
However, QB scoring is much lower than I have ever seen in any league: 0.0333 per passing yard (1/30); 2.667 per passing TD; 0.0667 per rushing yard (1/15); 4 per rushing TD.
As a point of reference, Mahomes averaged 19.315 ppg in this system last season. QB24 by ppg was Bridgewater, who averaged 13.572 ppg. So Mahomes was worth less than 6 ppg more than Bridgewater. That is less than the spread between RB12 and RB36, but it is more than the spread between WR12 and WR36 (about 3.4 ppg). Granted that is just one season, but it gives a feel.
My thought was that in this system, Mahomes offers less of an expected positional advantage than in most leagues, so I am more reluctant than I would usually be (in Superflex) to take a QB at 1.1 and have to wait for 22 more players to be drafted before drafting my second player and first potential non-QB. I expect a significant dropoff in talent to occur over that span.
As for the value of what I got, we will be starting 10 skill position players every week, so we are drafting starters in the 8th-10th rounds. Moving up 23 spots from 10.1 to 8.2 should be valuable as long as I don't botch the pick (a distinct possibility...).
I certainly could have made a tactical error. I haven't participated in a dynasty startup draft since 2010, just played in a couple long running leagues, so I am definitely out of practice That is one reason I posted the trade, to get some opinions. Thanks for the responses.
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I understand the raw data however this is a weekly game. And although the overall point totals are not thought of to be that significant (6 ppg over the entire season) the advantage of Mahomes over other QB's is that he is generally a top 5 QB every week. So although his yearly totals may be close to others when the season is over his weekly floor is very advantageous to have.
I also think the first round is better suited for safer, high floor choices over the big variance risky players. First round picks rarely win the league for you but they can very much cause you to lose (injury, underperformance, etc).
Now I would be much more inclined to like the deal if you weren't swapping 8th and 10th rounders and just acquired another pick since as you stated those are starter caliber players in theory. But dropping from pick 1 to pick 2 really isn't all that much of a drop.......especially if there isn't anybody you prefer.
12tm SF 2TE Devy League
EJ Smith
FOR
Brock Vandagriff, Phil Mafah
EJ Smith
FOR
Brock Vandagriff, Phil Mafah
12tm 1QB
TE-needy-ish team trades...
Gio, 3.12, 5.01
FOR
OJ Howard
TE-needy-ish team trades...
Gio, 3.12, 5.01
FOR
OJ Howard
12tm SF
Sammy Watkins, 2.06 (turned into Dyami Brown with devy depletion)
FOR
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jacob Eason, 22 3rd
Sammy Watkins, 2.06 (turned into Dyami Brown with devy depletion)
FOR
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jacob Eason, 22 3rd
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I don't have a problem with a move like this but not sure I'd pay the 2 picks for a backup TE. I would think there are better options out there available if you are in need.
Boston
Footballguy
Being a SF league this is a really bad deal...Fitz maybe 100 years old but he a definite starter this year which means he has solid value, far more than a virtually useless Watkins and a mid-second round pick...the fact that a prospect like Eason and a #3 got added in makes no sense to me...besides being a bad deal the fact it is being made in June makes it worse...all you need is one contender to get an injury to one of their QBs and you'll be able to get far more than this...I really dislike this deal a lot.
skol asylum
Footballguy
PPR &TEs get 1.5 pts per 10 yds
Team A sends Kelce, AB, Taysom Hill
Team B sends McLaurin, 2022 1st and 2nd
Team A sends Kelce, AB, Taysom Hill
Team B sends McLaurin, 2022 1st and 2nd
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Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I don't really play SF but that still seems like a lot to give up for the 4th best QB in this draft on a terrible team. Could work out but just feels like a lot.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Even if that's true, and it's debatable, the gap this year isn't as big as it normally is between rookie QB1 and QB4.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Most likely true but only time will tell. Is the Bears starting QB worth someone who will outscore him this year at least and 2 1st rounders? I guess it depends where those picks end up and no way to know that yet.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
There never is with picks. Just like in the real world.
In dynasty terms, it's pretty irrelevant that Fitz will/could outscore Fields this year.
The point of draft picks is to acquire guys you think will produce. I'm an advocate of using picks on guys that are right in front of you that you think you can win with. Picks are just picks.
The opposite mentality, I'm sure I'll get TWO great players with these picks NEXT year, is similar to political polls where the incumbent always loses to Hypothetical But Nameless Candidate A. People ascribe the positive qualities they HOPE for in a candidate. But when it becomes a real person - it's often a disappointment.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
In general I agree with you on picks but at some point the value shifts. So you are saying you are for the Fields side in this trade? Just curious. Not saying you are wrong. I prefaced this by saying I don't play much SF so valuing lower QBs as I view Fields to be overall is not going to be my cup of tea.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I wouldn't be too sure of that at all. Fitzpatrick is 39 years old and we all know he's capable of self destruction at any time. Fitzy can run but he's reckless when he does so, and may find himself sidelined at his age if he takes big hits - Fields should easily outpace him on the ground.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'm kind of neutral about it. Like you I don't play SF, but I think I get it well enough. Without knowing complete rosters it's hard to say.
I guess I'm just generically arguing that two firsts and a guy that's not buying green bananas isn't a lot to pay for a player you believe in.
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Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Fair enough. If you believe, then it seems about right. I guess I just don't believe in Fields enough. Especially on that team but if he is your guy, then yea you go get him if you can.
That one guy
Footballguy
In general, Fields was just taken with an early 1st, so that owner isn’t selling for rando single first a year out, another future 1st or player would be required...same would be true of non-SF league early 1st picks, too, I’d imagine. No one’s taking Chase or Najee at the 2 spot and then moving for a single 2022 1st before a single snap has been played
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
No doubt about that. My thing is that I just don't view him worth that. It is all on your perception as to what he is worth but if I drafted him that high, I would demand a big price tag to trade him too.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
12 Team, .5 PPR, no TE Premium, 1 QB:
Gave
1.5 (most likely Etienne but tiny chance it could end up being Pitts)
Got
2.6
2023 1st (guaranteed to be top 6 or rolls over until it is)
Noah Fant
Antonio Brown
No needs in the draft at all so was just taking the assets.
Thoughts?
Gave
1.5 (most likely Etienne but tiny chance it could end up being Pitts)
Got
2.6
2023 1st (guaranteed to be top 6 or rolls over until it is)
Noah Fant
Antonio Brown
No needs in the draft at all so was just taking the assets.
Thoughts?
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I think I'd rather have either Etienne or Pitts.
Don't tase me, bro!
Don't tase me, bro!
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I was on the fence for it for a while. Just the fact that anyone I drafted this year was going to sit on Taxi and really couldn't be a starter is what pushed me over the top.I think I'd rather have either Etienne or Pitts.
Don't tase me, bro!
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I like Fant a lot but not nearly enough to give up the 1.05. Nothing else coming back to you moves the needle enough imo.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
If you couldn't start ETN or PItts who could you start from the package you got back?
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Might have been a bad trade but I have kind of been building 2023 1sts (4 of them now) as I project that as the time I will need to start rebuilding a bit.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, 1 TE and my roster is:
QB - Dak, Wentz, Darnold, Big Ben
RB - Barkley, Kamara, Mixon, David Montgomery, Gus Edwards, Gio, Benny Snell, Ty Johnson, Eno Benjamin
WR - Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, A-Rob, Sterling Shepard, Perriman, Jalen Reagor, Quintez Cephus
TE - Travis Kelce, Irv Smith
Figured 23 was about the time I will be looking for a youth movement, have 2 1sts in 22, and 1.8 this year still.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I wouldn't say it was "bad" - just not enough for me. Obviously we can't know for sure but it's surely possible by season's end ETN or Pitts could bring you back a better return for a 2023 rebuild.
