****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (45 Viewers)

[smbkrypt24]

Just way overpaid:

Traded:
1.02, 1.04, 1,07
for
1.01

Yeah, but if Bijan is what they say he is it will be worth it.

This is why I paid that. I see it as:
Bijan
for
Gibbs, Addison, ??

 

[Boston]

Just way overpaid:

Traded:
1.02, 1.04, 1,07
for
1.01

Yeah, but if Bijan is what they say he is it will be worth it.

Yup...the reality is you are not getting an elite asset like Jefferson, Mahomes or Bijan (or at least what we think Bijan will be) unless you overpay...and while 3 #1's is a hefty price, unless this is SF, in this draft it probably won't hurt as much as some other years because this year is more about depth than studs up at the top...whenever it comes to overpaying for a stud my main concern is doing it for a RB because of the injury factor.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

more about depth than studs up at the top

Yes, one of the reasons I don't mind the "overpay" is as unlike most years there's really only one "prize" this season. What was supposed to be some all-time draft class, looks the same as most years I've been doing this now. And actually, the 1.02-1.04 looks a bit weaker than a lot of seasons. It's funny that so many people were selling last year's picks for this season based on the hype and now 2022 class looks > than 2023 class to me now.

 

[Boston]

more about depth than studs up at the top

Yes, one of the reasons I don't mind the "overpay" is as unlike most years there's really only one "prize" this season. What was supposed to be some all-time draft class, looks the same as most years I've been doing this now. And actually, the 1.02-1.04 looks a bit weaker than a lot of seasons. It's funny that so many people were selling last year's picks for this season based on the hype and now 2022 class looks > than 2023 class to me now.

Agreed...I think some lessons were learned that "next year" isn't always better.

 

[Birdie048]

Just way overpaid:

Traded:
1.02, 1.04, 1,07
for
1.01

Overpaid in calculating value but in terms of acquiring value, you won!

 

[jabarony]

more about depth than studs up at the top

Yes, one of the reasons I don't mind the "overpay" is as unlike most years there's really only one "prize" this season. What was supposed to be some all-time draft class, looks the same as most years I've been doing this now. And actually, the 1.02-1.04 looks a bit weaker than a lot of seasons. It's funny that so many people were selling last year's picks for this season based on the hype and now 2022 class looks > than 2023 class to me now.

Agreed...I think some lessons were learned that "next year" isn't always better.

Oh man. I hope HSG doesn’t read this. I hear he has a few picks this year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Just way overpaid:

Traded:
1.02, 1.04, 1,07
for
1.01

I don’t think it’s an overpay. It is putting a lot of eggs into one basket, but since that basket’s name is Bijan, you should be ok.

Also, welcome aboard

 

[Dr. Octopus]

more about depth than studs up at the top

Yes, one of the reasons I don't mind the "overpay" is as unlike most years there's really only one "prize" this season. What was supposed to be some all-time draft class, looks the same as most years I've been doing this now. And actually, the 1.02-1.04 looks a bit weaker than a lot of seasons. It's funny that so many people were selling last year's picks for this season based on the hype and now 2022 class looks > than 2023 class to me now.

Agreed...I think some lessons were learned that "next year" isn't always better.

Oh man. I hope HSG doesn’t read this. I hear he has a few picks this year.

It's surely a solid draft and some studs will come out of it - but it's not what the hype suggested for sure. Even the QBs have lost their buzz.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

more about depth than studs up at the top

Yes, one of the reasons I don't mind the "overpay" is as unlike most years there's really only one "prize" this season. What was supposed to be some all-time draft class, looks the same as most years I've been doing this now. And actually, the 1.02-1.04 looks a bit weaker than a lot of seasons. It's funny that so many people were selling last year's picks for this season based on the hype and now 2022 class looks > than 2023 class to me now.

I sold mostly players to get 2023 draft capital (Chris Carson, ARob, and a bunch of other olds who got hurt / were ineffective)

I think this class has 1 true alpha player, and about 12-15 more who could be very good. Gibbs or Charbonet may well be closer to Bijan than they are to the rest of the WRs.

At RB this class is significantly better than 2022. It’s not just depth. Last year there were basically 2 RB worth drafting. This year there may be 6 or more that land in meaningful spots.

I have zero regrets about acquiring 2023 1st round draft picks.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I sold mostly players to get 2023 draft capital

No one (well not me) is making this about you. I'm talking generally.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

more about depth than studs up at the top

Yes, one of the reasons I don't mind the "overpay" is as unlike most years there's really only one "prize" this season. What was supposed to be some all-time draft class, looks the same as most years I've been doing this now. And actually, the 1.02-1.04 looks a bit weaker than a lot of seasons. It's funny that so many people were selling last year's picks for this season based on the hype and now 2022 class looks > than 2023 class to me now.

Agreed...I think some lessons were learned that "next year" isn't always better.

Oh man. I hope HSG doesn’t read this. I hear he has a few picks this year.

See my last post. I am fine with his opinion. I think he’s a bit off in his evaluation, and his statement about trading 2022 picks for 2023 picks doesn’t apply to me at all.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I sold mostly players to get 2023 draft capital

No one (well not me) is making this about you. I'm talking generally.

I’m making it about me.

(Also someone did immediately after your post, so…)

 

[Dr. Octopus]

At RB this class is significantly better than 2022. It’s not just depth. Last year there were basically 2 RB worth drafting.

This is not true.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

At RB this class is significantly better than 2022. It’s not just depth. Last year there were basically 2 RB worth drafting.

This is not true.

We all have our opinions. You expressed yours, I’m expressing mine.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Hall & Waker were typically the only 1st round RBs last year in SF drafts where only 1 QB was taken.

So let me rephrase - the only RBs worth spending 1st round draft capital on.

There are definitely other 2022 RBs who had/have value. But comparing the 2022 class of RBs to 2023 is night and day.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

So let me rephrase - the only RBs worth spending 1st round draft capital on

Cook and Pierce went in the first round (or early second for Pierce) - and that also had a lot to do with a stacked WR class. Pierce should have been a first rounder based on his results.

I'm not saying this class sucks. I have plenty of picks, so I sure hope not. However the bottom line, last offseason this draft class was over-hyped. If you do want to not acknowledge that, that's ok. Most can see that now.

 

[menobrown]

I thought Watson's value went up, a lot.

He showed some flashes on big plays but did little else. Also a large part of why he was attractive last year was being matched up with Rodgers (maybe not for you) and it looks highly likely that that's now coming to an end.

I don't think he lost value, but wouldn't have guess he gained value. - He was getting drafted in the 1.09-2.01 range last season in what was considered a weaker draft than this year's, so surpirsed to see him go for 1.04

With that said for me personally 2022 draft class looks > than 2023 draft class so maybe the person trading for Watson also feels that way.

His flashes were massive, in fact his flashed are so massive that his routine plays look like flashes, and he was raw as could be. I'd have him as the #1WR right now vs the rookies, it's close but he won't fall under WR3.

I thought his performance had about zero do with Rodgers and in fact I recall Rodgers exiting a game that Watson was doing meh in and not being used and Love immediately threw him pass he housed.

He's a physical stud who is from a small school and the arrow is up, he flashed immense talent and spent about half a season as a WR1. Not sure what people are looking for.

Go get your guy. I don't think consensus is that high on him. Given the talent in this draft, I'd put him at the end of the 1st, right where you got him last year.

Despite some of the comments here I don't know about that. I think in the absence of startups, which I don't see any going, you can use redraft as a rough guide for how players are valued, just requires a little adjustment. He's a mid 5th, getting drafted ahead of every rookie except Bijan, a few picks behind Drake London.

Not trying to be snarky, I truly find it odd that people are trying part of his value to where he was drafted last year. That's water under the bridge to me.

Redraft isn't a good gauge for WR rookie value though.

He's not a rookie

You said he's getting drafted ahead of every rookie.

Every rookie but Bijan and rookies play other positions then WR.

And I don't agree with your premise that redrafts can't be used as a guide for dynasty value of rookie WR's, not when you are comping them to a second year WR.

It's a tool in the toolbox, just not a very important tool.
Especially in February

I think it's a relative guide to Watson's value but you do you.

I agree. Redraft is a pretty good gauge this time of year. Watson absolutely flashed last year and his ADP reflects that. Also, he looked good even when Love was in the game (who has a cannon by the way).

There was inherent risk baked into his rookie price (around 1.08/1.09) because all rookies are risky. A portion of that risk has already been mitigated because he did in fact flash. So it would actually be surprising if his price *didn't* go up this year. And yes as compared to an average incoming class, I think the default assumption should be that his price should be higher, something like 1.04. I think the burden of argument should be placed on those suggesting otherwise.

Good points but you could also argue that his value is about the same. He flashed and didn't perform great in some games, had multiple injuries, his time with Love was an incredibly small sample size, and he didn't grade out as a better prospect than guys like JSN or Addison. So giving up a pick of those guys for him is still a risk. I can see it on both sides. I wouldn't give up 1.04 for him but most people that have him shouldn't sell him for much less either.

I should have said *about* 1.04. Maybe you're right about the line there. If Watson had done better he might be worth more like 1.02. There *is* risk built-in still at 1.04/1.05 despite an increase in value. Take a guy like Bijan. He is worth more than the 1.01 if he pans out. Even that spot has some risk to it. If any of these guys hit big (or moderately - which Watson hasn't done just yet) then they become worth multiple 1sts. So in my mind a bump from last year's 1.08/1.09 to this year's 1.04/1.05 is significant but not earth shattering and in my mind represents one single notch in the value bump chain.

Agree with all that and would just add this.

I would NOT trade a top 6 pick for Watson right now. That's due to preferring what I term the more fluid asset of the pick plus a large consideration given to the roster spot Watson eats up until we can expand rosters.

BUT, if was drafting a rookie draft to day in a non-SF and Watson was in that draft I'd have go give it a good long thought exactly where I'd have him based on what I know right now it would be between 3-5.

Devil's advocate counterpoint (to support what others have said) would be that 1.08/1.09 might have already been overinflated due to pairing with Rodgers and that if a value bump is justified because of adequate rookie flashing, then maybe that bump should be more like from an original 2.0x up to the late 1st now. I'm not huge on him but I definitely liked what I saw when he was healthy.

I think his value is up from where he was drafted last year but I never really concerned myself with trying to determine how much in the context of a trade directly for a 2023 rookie pick. Only what is his value/ranking is relative to the players I can draft vs trade for him. That's all that matters to me.

I actually was not high on Watson last year and did not draft him and part of my reasons for not being high on him was I viewed him as super raw and felt Rodgers would not have a lot of patience with him and by the time Watson started to figure things out Rodgers would be gone. Seemed like a roster kind of drain for a season or two. So I never put Rodgers presence as a value increase for Watson, but I was not that high on him in general. I'd have to double check this but I think I had him as my 11th ranked player post-draft. He won me over later, my main negative on him last year was the injuries. He's lean from a small school and I think the NFL level of contact was a bit much for h

In this case whatever his value was over/under from last year the only thing relative is how Watson rates

I would NOT trade a top 6 pick for Watson right now

Oooh…who’s your top SIX right now in non-SF? Everyone seems to have the same top 5 (Bijan, Gibbs and the 3 WRs) so do you have a specific 6th in mind, or just assuming that post-NFL draft that will become more evident?

I ask since I hold the 6th pick in TWO of my 3 dynasty leagues and am hoping someone goes RB crazy above me, takes a 3rd RB and allows one of the top 3 WRs to fall to me.

Sorry man I just threw out that top 6 comment because I do have a few pick 6's but otherwise out of all my leagues I'm running a dead spot between 7-9 so was just thinking of it how it related to me when I made that comment.

ETA-I'm going to be extremely surprised if you don't have the option of drafting at least one, if not two, of those consensus top 3 WR's at pick 6.

Name your 6th ranked rookie NOW, dammit!!!!!

Hope so (re your last comment)

Ha, I truly have not bothered to rank them out like that at this time, after pick 2 I'm just trying to put players in the right neighborhood right now. But let me put it this way.

If I lived in some pretend world and today I was told I was guaranteed to be able to draft my currently 5th ranked player at 6 but I had to take them at 6 I would pass on that guarantee. Put another way if I sat here and tried to do a ranking up to player 6, my opinion is I'll prefer multiple players from the field who did not make that top 6 over one or more players that cracked that top 6 list when all is said and done. I feel like this will par for the course with most people when all is said and done.

 

[Buckna]

Just way overpaid:

Traded:
1.02, 1.04, 1,07
for
1.01

Depending on team situation, I could see both sides very happy with this long-term. Personally give me the package, but I get the love for Bijan.

 

[Lehigh98]

Just way overpaid:

Traded:
1.02, 1.04, 1,07
for
1.01

I would hurt myself rushing to trade Bijan for that.

 

[barackdhouse]

I actually was not high on Watson last year and did not draft him and part of my reasons for not being high on him was I viewed him as super raw and felt Rodgers would not have a lot of patience with him and by the time Watson started to figure things out Rodgers would be gone. Seemed like a roster kind of drain for a season or two. So I never put Rodgers presence as a value increase for Watson, but I was not that high on him in general. I'd have to double check this but I think I had him as my 11th ranked player post-draft. He won me over later, my main negative on him last year was the injuries. He's lean from a small school and I think the NFL level of contact was a bit much for h

I had basically the same take last year and only drafted him in 1 out of ~30 rookie drafts. And it was begrudgingly because he fell to me and I didn't like the board etc. But yeah he won me over during the course of the season. I had assumed at the time that the reason he was taken as high was because of the pairing with Rodgers. I was fading for similar reasons. Seeing how good Love looked (not just w/Watson but just in general as a QB) gave me a lot of confidence that the Packers can be a good FF offense post Rodgers. And Watson has room to grow.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If you do want to not acknowledge that, that's ok. Most can see that now.

I don’t think we can know that until the draft class is drafted and plays a season.

You’re using the benefit of 20-20 hindsight to look back at 2022’s class, and make a sweeping judgement about a 2023 class that we haven’t yet seen perform.

I’ve seen this phenomenon a few times and I don’t see it as a logical conclusion.

So no - I’m not yet ready to make an evaluation about a draft class that hasn’t been drafted and has yet to play a single game. And further, I don’t see how anyone possibly could.

 

[ghostguy123]

If you do want to not acknowledge that, that's ok. Most can see that now.

I don’t think we can know that until the draft class is drafted and plays a season.

You’re using the benefit of 20-20 hindsight to look back at 2022’s class, and make a sweeping judgement about a 2023 class that we haven’t yet seen perform.

I’ve seen this phenomenon a few times and I don’t see it as a logical conclusion.

So no - I’m not yet ready to make an evaluation about a draft class that hasn’t been drafted and has yet to play a single game. And further, I don’t see how anyone possibly could.

Well, one thing is clear, one year ago today the 2023 1st rounders were more valuable than they are right now.
I mentioned this before, but I have NEVER see that happen.

Regardless of how things play out, that is the reality of right now.

 

[efactor]

Just way overpaid:

Traded:
1.02, 1.04, 1,07
for
1.01

If your team is already a contender, an excellent trade. Of course where Robinson ends up will be a big factor as well but if he lands in a prime offense, then a steal for you.

 

[Boston]

Just way overpaid:

Traded:
1.02, 1.04, 1,07
for
1.01

If your team is already a contender, an excellent trade. Of course where Robinson ends up will be a big factor as well but if he lands in a prime offense, then a steal for you.

Agreed on this point...what type of roster you have has a big influence on this deal.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Well, one thing is clear, one year ago today the 2023 1st rounders were more valuable than they are right now.
I mentioned this before, but I have NEVER see that happen.

Regardless of how things play out, that is the reality of right now.

To whom?

What reality is that? It’s 3 months until the NFL draft.

Value is in the eye of the beholder. Im not sure what you’re basing this reality on.

I’ve been getting offers for my picks. They seem pretty valuable in my leagues.

This weekend might well spike some pick values. This isn’t a static thing you know.

Then after the NFL draft, there will be another round of wild swings.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

So no - I’m not yet ready to make an evaluation about a draft class that hasn’t been drafted and has yet to play a single game. And further, I don’t see how anyone possibly could.

So all last season weren't you and others evaluating this draft class before a single game was played? So we can do that a year in advance but not two months in advance?

That's what we do, we evaluate the class. Right now it looks solid, but nothing like the hype of last offseason. That doesn't mean every player won't be a stud or that every player will fail. We're evaluating them as prospects. It's a solid class. There will be very useful players that come out of it. There will be busts. Same as it ever was - and that's the point. You're taking it too personally.

You can get the last word as I'm done with it. It is what it is.

 

[Blick]

If you do want to not acknowledge that, that's ok. Most can see that now.

I don’t think we can know that until the draft class is drafted and plays a season.

You’re using the benefit of 20-20 hindsight to look back at 2022’s class, and make a sweeping judgement about a 2023 class that we haven’t yet seen perform.

I’ve seen this phenomenon a few times and I don’t see it as a logical conclusion.

So no - I’m not yet ready to make an evaluation about a draft class that hasn’t been drafted and has yet to play a single game. And further, I don’t see how anyone possibly could.

Hall and Wallker were the only RBs consistently drafted it the 1st. The WRs in 2022 were considered deep, but there was no "stud". They rose in the draft because there were no RBs to supplant them. Cook only shot up based on landing spot. I'd argue that the WRs in this draft are about as good as last year and the RBs are significantly better. I'm still buying 2023 picks everywhere I can.

 

[menobrown]

I actually was not high on Watson last year and did not draft him and part of my reasons for not being high on him was I viewed him as super raw and felt Rodgers would not have a lot of patience with him and by the time Watson started to figure things out Rodgers would be gone. Seemed like a roster kind of drain for a season or two. So I never put Rodgers presence as a value increase for Watson, but I was not that high on him in general. I'd have to double check this but I think I had him as my 11th ranked player post-draft. He won me over later, my main negative on him last year was the injuries. He's lean from a small school and I think the NFL level of contact was a bit much for h

I had basically the same take last year and only drafted him in 1 out of ~30 rookie drafts. And it was begrudgingly because he fell to me and I didn't like the board etc. But yeah he won me over during the course of the season. I had assumed at the time that the reason he was taken as high was because of the pairing with Rodgers. I was fading for similar reasons. Seeing how good Love looked (not just w/Watson but just in general as a QB) gave me a lot of confidence that the Packers can be a good FF offense post Rodgers. And Watson has room to grow.

Just wanted to add that my reply cut off somehow and what I was trying to say at the end that no matter how I rated him coming into the league last year that none of that made a difference to how I rank him relative to his draft capital to the 2023 class. I'm truly surprised where someone had a player ranked last year is that big of a factor in what they think they are worth relative to a draft class the following year. I only care about how Watson would rank if he was in this class knowing what I know about him now. My preconceived notions about him before he ever played don't carry much relevance to me.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

So no - I’m not yet ready to make an evaluation about a draft class that hasn’t been drafted and has yet to play a single game. And further, I don’t see how anyone possibly could.

So all last season weren't you and others evaluating this draft class before a single game was played? So we can do that a year in advance but not two months in advance?

That's what we do, we evaluate the class. Right now it looks solid, but nothing like the hype of last offseason. That doesn't mean every player won't be a stud or that every player will fail. We're evaluating them as prospects. It's a solid class. There will be very useful players that come out of it. There will be busts. Same as it ever was - and that's the point. You're taking it too personally.

You can get the last word as I'm done with it. It is what it is.

Not taking it personally at all.

I’ll say this - I was off about last year’s class, as I didn’t think the WRs were as good as they ended up being.

We disagree about the quality of the class. Last I checked that’s ok.

 

[menobrown]

If you do want to not acknowledge that, that's ok. Most can see that now.

I don’t think we can know that until the draft class is drafted and plays a season.

You’re using the benefit of 20-20 hindsight to look back at 2022’s class, and make a sweeping judgement about a 2023 class that we haven’t yet seen perform.

I’ve seen this phenomenon a few times and I don’t see it as a logical conclusion.

So no - I’m not yet ready to make an evaluation about a draft class that hasn’t been drafted and has yet to play a single game. And further, I don’t see how anyone possibly could.

Well, one thing is clear, one year ago today the 2023 1st rounders were more valuable than they are right now.
I mentioned this before, but I have NEVER see that happen.

Regardless of how things play out, that is the reality of right now.

I'll take your word for it but I'm not seeing any bit of evidence of that so far in any of my 9 leagues and I don't feel that way personally.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If you do want to not acknowledge that, that's ok. Most can see that now.

I don’t think we can know that until the draft class is drafted and plays a season.

You’re using the benefit of 20-20 hindsight to look back at 2022’s class, and make a sweeping judgement about a 2023 class that we haven’t yet seen perform.

I’ve seen this phenomenon a few times and I don’t see it as a logical conclusion.

So no - I’m not yet ready to make an evaluation about a draft class that hasn’t been drafted and has yet to play a single game. And further, I don’t see how anyone possibly could.

Well, one thing is clear, one year ago today the 2023 1st rounders were more valuable than they are right now.
I mentioned this before, but I have NEVER see that happen.

Regardless of how things play out, that is the reality of right now.

I'll take your word for it but I'm not seeing any bit of evidence of that so far in any of my 9 leagues and I don't feel that way personally.

Yeah, I have no idea what GG is basing that on.

Certainly not trade calcs, trade charts, or anecdotally in my leagues.

Maybe in his leagues. That hardly shapes reality as we know it.

 

[efactor]

If you do want to not acknowledge that, that's ok. Most can see that now.

I don’t think we can know that until the draft class is drafted and plays a season.

You’re using the benefit of 20-20 hindsight to look back at 2022’s class, and make a sweeping judgement about a 2023 class that we haven’t yet seen perform.

I’ve seen this phenomenon a few times and I don’t see it as a logical conclusion.

So no - I’m not yet ready to make an evaluation about a draft class that hasn’t been drafted and has yet to play a single game. And further, I don’t see how anyone possibly could.

Well, one thing is clear, one year ago today the 2023 1st rounders were more valuable than they are right now.
I mentioned this before, but I have NEVER see that happen.

Regardless of how things play out, that is the reality of right now.

I'll take your word for it but I'm not seeing any bit of evidence of that so far in any of my 9 leagues and I don't feel that way personally.

Yeah, I have no idea what GG is basing that on.

Certainly not trade calcs, trade charts, or anecdotally in my leagues.

Maybe in his leagues. That hardly shapes reality as we know it.

There was a lot of talk last year about 2023 being an amazing class compared to 2022. That opinion has changed considerably it seems so that’s what Ghost Guy is saying (I think anyway).

A lot of talk last year about moving 2022 1sts for 2023 picks. They were pretty coveted by many.

 

[Blick]

If you do want to not acknowledge that, that's ok. Most can see that now.

I don’t think we can know that until the draft class is drafted and plays a season.

You’re using the benefit of 20-20 hindsight to look back at 2022’s class, and make a sweeping judgement about a 2023 class that we haven’t yet seen perform.

I’ve seen this phenomenon a few times and I don’t see it as a logical conclusion.

So no - I’m not yet ready to make an evaluation about a draft class that hasn’t been drafted and has yet to play a single game. And further, I don’t see how anyone possibly could.

Well, one thing is clear, one year ago today the 2023 1st rounders were more valuable than they are right now.
I mentioned this before, but I have NEVER see that happen.

Regardless of how things play out, that is the reality of right now.

I'll take your word for it but I'm not seeing any bit of evidence of that so far in any of my 9 leagues and I don't feel that way personally.

Yeah, I have no idea what GG is basing that on.

Certainly not trade calcs, trade charts, or anecdotally in my leagues.

Maybe in his leagues. That hardly shapes reality as we know it.

There was a lot of talk last year about 2023 being an amazing class compared to 2022. That opinion has changed considerably it seems so that’s what Ghost Guy is saying (I think anyway).

A lot of talk last year about moving 2022 1sts for 2023 picks. They were pretty coveted by many.

I remember most people’s “line” being somewhere around 1.07. Basically trade anything later for a random 23. I think that was a smart move.

 

[efactor]

My 16 teamer has fairly small rosters so I moved a couple 2022 picks for 2023 picks since I didn’t want to drop or trade players to make room for the picks. Now moving those picks to who I think will be crappy teams for 2024 picks. Good times.

 

[phandango]

I actually was not high on Watson last year and did not draft him and part of my reasons for not being high on him was I viewed him as super raw and felt Rodgers would not have a lot of patience with him and by the time Watson started to figure things out Rodgers would be gone. Seemed like a roster kind of drain for a season or two. So I never put Rodgers presence as a value increase for Watson, but I was not that high on him in general. I'd have to double check this but I think I had him as my 11th ranked player post-draft. He won me over later, my main negative on him last year was the injuries. He's lean from a small school and I think the NFL level of contact was a bit much for h

I had basically the same take last year and only drafted him in 1 out of ~30 rookie drafts. And it was begrudgingly because he fell to me and I didn't like the board etc. But yeah he won me over during the course of the season. I had assumed at the time that the reason he was taken as high was because of the pairing with Rodgers. I was fading for similar reasons. Seeing how good Love looked (not just w/Watson but just in general as a QB) gave me a lot of confidence that the Packers can be a good FF offense post Rodgers. And Watson has room to grow.

"Begrudgingly" is a good description of my feeling too. I didn't take Watson in any FFPC leagues because I thought he would take too long to develop and I didn't want to wait. I took him in three other leagues where we have taxi squads or deeper rosters. Tried to trade him a bunch of times, then I declared him a bust after his NFL career was one month old.

 

[ghostguy123]

Well, one thing is clear, one year ago today the 2023 1st rounders were more valuable than they are right now.
I mentioned this before, but I have NEVER see that happen.

Regardless of how things play out, that is the reality of right now.

To whom?

What reality is that? It’s 3 months until the NFL draft.

Value is in the eye of the beholder. Im not sure what you’re basing this reality on.

I’ve been getting offers for my picks. They seem pretty valuable in my leagues.

This weekend might well spike some pick values. This isn’t a static thing you know.

Then after the NFL draft, there will be another round of wild swings.

The reality of trades that happen in my leagues, trade talks with people, the forums here..........trades can molested now compared to last year, trades made during startup drafts last year....

 

[ghostguy123]

If you do want to not acknowledge that, that's ok. Most can see that now.

I don’t think we can know that until the draft class is drafted and plays a season.

You’re using the benefit of 20-20 hindsight to look back at 2022’s class, and make a sweeping judgement about a 2023 class that we haven’t yet seen perform.

I’ve seen this phenomenon a few times and I don’t see it as a logical conclusion.

So no - I’m not yet ready to make an evaluation about a draft class that hasn’t been drafted and has yet to play a single game. And further, I don’t see how anyone possibly could.

Well, one thing is clear, one year ago today the 2023 1st rounders were more valuable than they are right now.
I mentioned this before, but I have NEVER see that happen.

Regardless of how things play out, that is the reality of right now.

I'll take your word for it but I'm not seeing any bit of evidence of that so far in any of my 9 leagues and I don't feel that way personally.

Yeah, I have no idea what GG is basing that on.

Certainly not trade calcs, trade charts, or anecdotally in my leagues.

Maybe in his leagues. That hardly shapes reality as we know it.

There was a lot of talk last year about 2023 being an amazing class compared to 2022. That opinion has changed considerably it seems so that’s what Ghost Guy is saying (I think anyway).

A lot of talk last year about moving 2022 1sts for 2023 picks. They were pretty coveted by many.

I remember most people’s “line” being somewhere around 1.07. Basically trade anything later for a random 23. I think that was a smart move.

I was watching picks like 1.05 and 1.06 being moved for future 1sts of teams with a better than 50/50 shot at making the playoffs. Never seen that before.
I was watching multiple startup drafts where people were trading 3rd round startup picks for random future 1sts which is nuts. Usually it's a 5th rounder.
None of this is superflex, so that's has a huge impact on the discussion

 

[menobrown]

If you do want to not acknowledge that, that's ok. Most can see that now.

I don’t think we can know that until the draft class is drafted and plays a season.

You’re using the benefit of 20-20 hindsight to look back at 2022’s class, and make a sweeping judgement about a 2023 class that we haven’t yet seen perform.

I’ve seen this phenomenon a few times and I don’t see it as a logical conclusion.

So no - I’m not yet ready to make an evaluation about a draft class that hasn’t been drafted and has yet to play a single game. And further, I don’t see how anyone possibly could.

Well, one thing is clear, one year ago today the 2023 1st rounders were more valuable than they are right now.
I mentioned this before, but I have NEVER see that happen.

Regardless of how things play out, that is the reality of right now.

I'll take your word for it but I'm not seeing any bit of evidence of that so far in any of my 9 leagues and I don't feel that way personally.

Yeah, I have no idea what GG is basing that on.

Certainly not trade calcs, trade charts, or anecdotally in my leagues.

Maybe in his leagues. That hardly shapes reality as we know it.

There was a lot of talk last year about 2023 being an amazing class compared to 2022. That opinion has changed considerably it seems so that’s what Ghost Guy is saying (I think anyway).

A lot of talk last year about moving 2022 1sts for 2023 picks. They were pretty coveted by many.

I remember most people’s “line” being somewhere around 1.07. Basically trade anything later for a random 23. I think that was a smart move.

I'm pretty sure I posted this somewhere on these boards so none of this is after the fact.

Most of my picks last year were 8-12. I traded zero of them. I offered zero of them in a trade for a 2023 first round pick. The reason was I had I believe 11, might have been 12, players I graded out after the NFL draft as being worth a first round pick in a fantasy draft. Whatever the number, 11 or 12, it's as many players I felt were worth a first round pick since 2014. I also said, after the NFL draft, that the second round of our rookie drafts had more RB talent then I've seen.

So me personally, I thought the top round and half last year of most rookie drafts was extremely strong. That does not mean I'm down on this class.

I made a thread a week or so ago trying to illustrate where players felt about the 2022 draft this time of year to how they feel about the 2023 draft at a similar time frame. Meaning how they felt about the classes before the combine, FA and the draft. My strong feeling is people are higher on the 2023 class right now at a comparative time frame. Remember now that most of the players we saw go in the first round of our rookie drafts had great combines. The only top notch highly ranked player I recall that fell last year post-combine was Spiller. I think people just need some more time and info and they still start coming around on this class.

But I would add I think what GG is basing on what he is saying on actual trades he is seeing made in his leagues. I'm just not seeing those, for either year really. Meaning people were not bailing on late 2022's #1's in my leagues last year and I'm not seeing it on 2023#1's yet either.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think we can all agree that 2024 draft is going to be the greatest draft class in history - well until 2025 of course.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The reality of trades that happen in my leagues, trade talks with people, the forums here..........trades can molested now compared to last year, trades made during startup drafts last year....

Right. Anecdotal, smallest possible sample size.

Due respect, but that’s your reality, not everyone else’s.

 

[ghostguy123]

The reality of trades that happen in my leagues, trade talks with people, the forums here..........trades can molested now compared to last year, trades made during startup drafts last year....

Right. Anecdotal, smallest possible sample size.

Due respect, but that’s your reality, not everyone else’s.

The forums here.......that's anecdotal? Ok

 

[ghostguy123]

Did I say trades "molested"?? Haha.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Did I say trades "molested"?? Haha.

Some people really loved the 2023 draft class.

 

[menobrown]

One thing I think people should factor in regarding analyzing people trading out of 2022 mid to late first round picks for 2023 first round picks is the uniqueness of the positions available in most drafts last year with picks 3-12 of most non-SF drafts.

What I'm saying is in most drafts, not all, but most non-SF drafts you had Hall and Walker go 1 and 2. The other 10 picks were basically WR's and James Cook who was only pushed up in that convo because of his NFL second round capital.

We also knew that the 2023 class was had once every few years talent at RB and what was considered a deep draft overall at RB.

So if you found yourself with a first round pick after like 3 in most leagues last year and really felt your team needed some RB help and/or you were loaded at WR it really made moving off that pick way more attractive to a lot of people. The idea of just adding to a deep WR group and not being able to address RB need with a first round big was absolutely a big factor for a lot of trades IMO.

 

[ghostguy123]

One thing I think people should factor in regarding analyzing people trading out of 2022 mid to late first round picks for 2023 first round picks is the uniqueness of the positions available in most drafts last year with picks 3-12 of most non-SF drafts.

What I'm saying is in most drafts, not all, but most non-SF drafts you had Hall and Walker go 1 and 2. The other 10 picks were basically WR's and James Cook who was only pushed up in that convo because of his NFL second round capital.

We also knew that the 2023 class was had once every few years talent at RB and what was considered a deep draft overall at RB.

So if you found yourself with a first round pick after like 3 in most leagues last year and really felt your team needed some RB help and/or you were loaded at WR it really made moving off that pick way more attractive to a lot of people. The idea of just adding to a deep WR group and not being able to address RB need with a first round big was absolutely a big factor for a lot of trades IMO.

Trading the LATE 1sts for future 1sts is generally a shark move, every time.
Not picks 1.05 and 1.06 though, unless you are almost certain the future 1st will be a non playoff team.
I would imagine in superflex the 2023 class had to look wayyyy better than 2022 given the lack of 2022 QBs worth a darn, and the projection of the 2023 QBs.
Either way, call it a small sample size if anyone wants, but I followed along about a dozen startup drafts (non SF) and did a few of my own, and have never come close to seeing future 1sts valued so high by everyone, and I mean everyone. I think one time I saw a future 1st get traded straight up for a 5th round startup pick, and that's generally the going rate.
Also the talk here a year ago was out of control biased towards the 2023 class. So were the completed trades.

 

[menobrown]

Trading the LATE 1sts for future 1sts is generally a shark move, every time.

I look at a little different and it's why I go through the process of seeing how many players grade out as first round players.

So long as I can pick a player I grade as a first round player I'm not dealing them for someones future 1 that looks like it has little to no chance of being a top 6 lock or at minimum borderline and a real threat to win 1.1. It does not matter to me what draft position I'm using to pick that first round graded player, just that I can pick someone I rate that high. So for example if I can pick a player at 2.2 I have graded as a first round player, I'm not trading that pick for a future #1 that does not meet my criteria of being lock or borderline and threat to win 1.1. On the other hand if I'm up at like pick 9 and they cleaned out the players I got graded as worth firsts I'm bailing for ANY future first I can get.

 

[phandango]

One thing I think people should factor in regarding analyzing people trading out of 2022 mid to late first round picks for 2023 first round picks is the uniqueness of the positions available in most drafts last year with picks 3-12 of most non-SF drafts.

What I'm saying is in most drafts, not all, but most non-SF drafts you had Hall and Walker go 1 and 2. The other 10 picks were basically WR's and James Cook who was only pushed up in that convo because of his NFL second round capital.

We also knew that the 2023 class was had once every few years talent at RB and what was considered a deep draft overall at RB.

So if you found yourself with a first round pick after like 3 in most leagues last year and really felt your team needed some RB help and/or you were loaded at WR it really made moving off that pick way more attractive to a lot of people. The idea of just adding to a deep WR group and not being able to address RB need with a first round big was absolutely a big factor for a lot of trades IMO.

I run a 1QB FFPC team with a friend. We had pick 1.03 last year. Hall and Walker were the first two picks. We put the pick on the block and got an offer for a 2023 R1 and R2. We were debating London or Burks, but the reality is that, in 1QB FFPC leagues, WRs aren't that valuable, and we had a deep team. Plus, our assessment at the time was that the team offering us the picks was a borderline playoff team that had a good shot at the 1.01 if he missed the cut. And we could move the 2023 picks in-season if we needed to. The reality was that we didn't move the picks, and the other team made midseason trades that helped him make the playoffs. We ended up trading the 2022 1.03 for the 2023 1.10 and 2.10, which sucked, but at least we didn't pass on taking the next Justin Jefferson (yet).

 

[Jonesin For Some Football]

This one just happened today. I'm not involved. Non-SF

Sledge Hammer gets
Brock Purdy QB SF
D'Andre Swift RB DET
Tyler Bass K BUF
2023 2nd round pick 2.12

Guardians of the Galaxy gets
Kenneth Walker RB SEA
Cairo Santos K CHI
2023 3rd round pick 3.05

Seems like a crazy low price for Walker at first blush

This is a terrible price for K9. That is basically a 3rd round pick which isn't far off of the 3.05 and K/QB that may not even start are barely worth including. Guardians got an absolutely steal here, especially with K9 playing for the Hawks who will run the ball plenty.

 

[Jonesin For Some Football]

I would NOT trade a top 6 pick for Watson right now

Oooh…who’s your top SIX right now in non-SF? Everyone seems to have the same top 5 (Bijan, Gibbs and the 3 WRs) so do you have a specific 6th in mind, or just assuming that post-NFL draft that will become more evident?

I ask since I hold the 6th pick in TWO of my 3 dynasty leagues and am hoping someone goes RB crazy above me, takes a 3rd RB and allows one of the top 3 WRs to fall to me.

Sorry man I just threw out that top 6 comment because I do have a few pick 6's but otherwise out of all my leagues I'm running a dead spot between 7-9 so was just thinking of it how it related to me when I made that comment.

ETA-I'm going to be extremely surprised if you don't have the option of drafting at least one, if not two, of those consensus top 3 WR's at pick 6.

I have 1.06 and 1.07 and think that a 3rd RB will go in the top 5 depending on draft capital but I am leaning towards Charbonet and Boutte at my 2 picks if it goes Bijan, JSN, Gibbs, Addison, and Johnston as it looks right now. Obviously a lot could still change.

 

[Jonesin For Some Football]

So let me rephrase - the only RBs worth spending 1st round draft capital on

Cook and Pierce went in the first round (or early second for Pierce) - and that also had a lot to do with a stacked WR class. Pierce should have been a first rounder based on his results.

I'm not saying this class sucks. I have plenty of picks, so I sure hope not. However the bottom line, last offseason this draft class was over-hyped. If you do want to not acknowledge that, that's ok. Most can see that now.

I think it was definitely overhyped but at the same time, we won't know that until we see these guys play. This could still be every bit the class that people mentioned but I agree that at this time it feels like the hype was overblown last year about what we are seeing right now. I hope these guys blow that out of the water though as I have 3 1sts coming up but none in the top 5.