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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (10 Viewers)

Have really been diving into the betlabs systems build tool so I can get some equal money on sides/totals that I have on props.  I've been going conference by conference to see if I can find anything that has a good sample size and double digit ROI.  Keep in mind that you literally have to play every one of these in order for them to hit the expected outcome....and have the bankroll to withstand the variance...and hope the trend continues.  But I found a few to start

Theory is that teams who have gone over the game total in less than have their games might have totals that are deflated, thus the over having a better chance to hit.  I started with the entire database, but there's really not much to show....but when you go conference by conference you really see a lot of difference.  The A10 and Big Sky are the only ones with double digit ROIs

Play the over in (1) Atlantic 10  or Big Sky conference games when you have (2) teams that that have gone over the total less than 50% of the time (3) when the closing total is less than 144. 57.2% over time for a 10.1% ROI.

Last season, this system yielding 54 plays and is just one system out of more I plan to look at.  I'll likely be playing these for b/w 10-25% of what I would play a normal prop for.....b/c of the variance and it's a "system".  And again, the only reason I'm doing this is b/c I want to get the equal play b/w "regular" bets and props on certain sites.  I fully expect nights where they will come up empty and nights when they will come up perfect.  You have been warned.

Plays tonight are:

GW/Duquesne over 130.5

Davidson/StL o138.5

UMASS/GM o138

Dayton/St. Bonaventure o139

 
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Tiger Fan said:
Have really been diving into the betlabs systems build tool so I can get some equal money on sides/totals that I have on props.  I've been going conference by conference to see if I can find anything that has a good sample size and double digit ROI.  Keep in mind that you literally have to play every one of these in order for them to hit the expected outcome....and have the bankroll to withstand the variance...and hope the trend continues.  But I found a few to start

Theory is that teams who have gone over the game total in less than have their games might have totals that are deflated, thus the over having a better chance to hit.  I started with the entire database, but there's really not much to show....but when you go conference by conference you really see a lot of difference.  The A10 and Big Sky are the only ones with double digit ROIs

Play the over in (1) Atlantic 10  or Big Sky conference games when you have (2) teams that that have gone over the total less than 50% of the time (3) when the closing total is less than 144. 57.2% over time for a 10.1% ROI.

Last season, this system yielding 54 plays and is just one system out of more I plan to look at.  I'll likely be playing these for b/w 10-25% of what I would play a normal prop for.....b/c of the variance and it's a "system".  And again, the only reason I'm doing this is b/c I want to get the equal play b/w "regular" bets and props on certain sites.  I fully expect nights where they will come up empty and nights when they will come up perfect.  You have been warned.

Plays tonight are:

GW/Duquesne over 130.5

Davidson/StL o138.5

UMASS/GM o138

Dayton/St. Bonaventure o139
Click to expand...
always loved A10 basketball!

 
njury watch: The Rockets have had their depth stretched to this point with injuries to Chris Paul, Clint Capela, and Luc Mbah a Moute, but now face their biggest test with James Harden sidelined for at least two weeks due to a hamstring injury. Paul and Eric Gordon will be tasked with initiating the majority of the offense without Harden, and both have seen sizable increases in their usage rates with Harden off the court (Paul +11.7%, Gordon +10.7%). Paul’s assist percentage has nearly doubled as well, and he’s averaged an absurd 27-14-6 per 36 minutes in that sample — good for 1.71 DraftKings points per minute. Don’t sleep on Gerald Green either. As a career 36.2 percent shooter from beyond the arc, he’ll see plenty of open looks alongside Paul in coach Mike D’Antoni’s pace-and-space offense. 

 
swirvenirvin said:
njury watch: The Rockets have had their depth stretched to this point with injuries to Chris Paul, Clint Capela, and Luc Mbah a Moute, but now face their biggest test with James Harden sidelined for at least two weeks due to a hamstring injury. Paul and Eric Gordon will be tasked with initiating the majority of the offense without Harden, and both have seen sizable increases in their usage rates with Harden off the court (Paul +11.7%, Gordon +10.7%). Paul’s assist percentage has nearly doubled as well, and he’s averaged an absurd 27-14-6 per 36 minutes in that sample — good for 1.71 DraftKings points per minute. Don’t sleep on Gerald Green either. As a career 36.2 percent shooter from beyond the arc, he’ll see plenty of open looks alongside Paul in coach Mike D’Antoni’s pace-and-space offense. 
Click to expand...
Rockets are one of Dr Bobs free plays tonight. He's been hitting, I think, 57 or 59% on those this year. Last year he was 54 or 55%

 
Tiger Fan said:
Have really been diving into the betlabs systems build tool so I can get some equal money on sides/totals that I have on props.  I've been going conference by conference to see if I can find anything that has a good sample size and double digit ROI.  Keep in mind that you literally have to play every one of these in order for them to hit the expected outcome....and have the bankroll to withstand the variance...and hope the trend continues.  But I found a few to start

Theory is that teams who have gone over the game total in less than have their games might have totals that are deflated, thus the over having a better chance to hit.  I started with the entire database, but there's really not much to show....but when you go conference by conference you really see a lot of difference.  The A10 and Big Sky are the only ones with double digit ROIs

Play the over in (1) Atlantic 10  or Big Sky conference games when you have (2) teams that that have gone over the total less than 50% of the time (3) when the closing total is less than 144. 57.2% over time for a 10.1% ROI.

Last season, this system yielding 54 plays and is just one system out of more I plan to look at.  I'll likely be playing these for b/w 10-25% of what I would play a normal prop for.....b/c of the variance and it's a "system".  And again, the only reason I'm doing this is b/c I want to get the equal play b/w "regular" bets and props on certain sites.  I fully expect nights where they will come up empty and nights when they will come up perfect.  You have been warned.

Plays tonight are:

GW/Duquesne over 130.5

Davidson/StL o138.5

UMASS/GM o138

Dayton/St. Bonaventure o139
Click to expand...
Id recommend perusing other gambling forums and trying to find posters who beat the close and then just tail them.

 
lumpy19 said:
cappingthegame has some good posters

I purchased service from procapsports.com which starts saturday(although my guess is those will be steamed pretty hard and mybookie won't like that)
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i tailed one guy today from there. I only thought he has one play and he lost that, I checked later he added 4 plays and won all those

 
What's the play on the Alabama/Georgia game?

I have a future bet on Alabama to be National champions that I made pre season. I think I will just let that ride.

 
Pucks:

Isles/Flyers O6 (-105)
Bolts/Bruins (+140)
Bolts/Bruins/Wild (+246)

 
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If playoff experience counts for anything, the Chiefs have a solid edge over the Titans. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Chiefs have 39 players who have been part of a postseason game, the Titans 18. Those 39 Chiefs have played in 110 playoff games while the 18 Titans have been in 81.

That edge extends to the head coaches. Chiefs' Andy Reid has coached in 23 postseason games, including four with Kansas City, but this is the first such game for the Titans' HC Mike Mularkey, who said he doesn't think experience matters in playoff situations. Even Reid indicated he wasn't sure about it. "I don't know how to measure that," Reid said.
Click to expand...
Head coaches with more than 5 games of playoff experience have gone 14-4 SU and ATS (avg line -3) against opposing coaches with no playoff experience. sdql

Chiefs -12 +147

 
It's wild because one of those four SU losses in that situation actually came versus Alex Smith and Jim Harbaugh on Jan 14, 2012. Both men were making their respective playoff debuts at QB and head coach.

 
lumpy19 said:
Id recommend perusing other gambling forums and trying to find posters who beat the close and then just tail them.
Click to expand...


lumpy19 said:
cappingthegame has some good posters

I purchased service from procapsports.com which starts saturday(although my guess is those will be steamed pretty hard and mybookie won't like that)
Click to expand...


lumpy19 said:
hit watch thread in the upper right hand corner
Click to expand...
I don't disagree, however even with the "watch thread" button, it doesn't function properly at that site.  Sometimes it sends the notification, other times it doesn't.  Also, it's really hard to find the same lines as some of those guys get, so it makes it counterproductive for me personally.

One of my strengths (hey look at me!) is my bankroll management and ability to have a "marathon, not a sprint" mentality, so the betlabs stuff plays well with me.  I purposely avoid all of the systems where # of tickets or public $ factors in, b/c that changes so fast, I'd literally have to be at the computer 24/7 to take proper advantage of that.  

I'll continue to post plays if people want, but I acknowledge it's not for everyone.

 
Tiger Fan said:
CrimsonK in the NCAA Football forum was very successful, but he gets insane opening lines.  Typically by the time he posts in there, lines have moved a lot.
Click to expand...
thanks

I found someone on facebook that went 18-0.  He posts randomly and mainly plays O/U NBA. next time I see his post ill share it here

 
Sentry Tournament of Champions:

Leishman +1700 (.4 units)
A. Cook +5000 (.2 units)
Matsuyama +1100 (1 unit)
Harman +3200 (.2 units)

Matsuyama (-110) over Rahm (2 units)
Leishman (+110) over Koepka

 
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Even if you've been wagering on football every year for ten years, that still means you've only gotten to experience nine postseasons. How is postseason football different than regular season football? I think the hits are harder. And it's definitely a different mentality. It's win or go home in a sport that literally harbors a concept called "sudden death" overtime. Death. Win or die. I don't know how that translates over to gambling, but I think the postseason is unique from the regular season. And I don't have enough postseason experience. So thought I'd ask.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Can you give us a little more here?

Unrelated question: I'm sure it's been covered here, but if I'm cut at Sportsbook.ag, I presume I can't play at one of their skins? Betusa.ag for example?
Click to expand...
Correct

Also on a different note bovada being real #####es no clue how I lasted a few years there.  Sign up now get cut ina  a few days to $25 and then to $10 or 1

 
Anaheim Ducks (19-14-8) are +105 in Edmonton (17-20-3) tonight. The Oilers are having a bad season and are worse at home. Just something that I thought I would throw out here.

 
Borden said:
Anaheim Ducks (19-14-8) are +105 in Edmonton (17-20-3) tonight. The Oilers are having a bad season and are worse at home. Just something that I thought I would throw out here.
Click to expand...
Kind of like this and the unders in that game as well. Not on either yet.

 
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