Anthony Joshua -205 over Deontay Wilder (BetOnline)
This fight isn't official official yet, but it's looking like it's going to get done for probably October. These are the consensus #1 and #2 HW's in the world, and the price has tightened after each's last fights. Wilder won an exciting, fan-friendly bout, literally coming off the ropes at one point to finally knock out a gassed Ortiz in the 10th. Wilder's skills and resume have long been questioned, his technique is really awful, as one would expect for someone who came late to boxing. Ortiz 15 years ago would've absolutely wiped him out, but he's an old man now, and Wilder did show incredible determination when he got in trouble and things were looking dire. Shocking, to me, was that his people threw him right in a pretty big fire right before his big money bout before Joshua, but he got through it somehow.
That fight raised Wilder's stock, and Joshua's workmanlike win over Joseph Parker lowered his. Joshua was a KO artist early in his career, but his last 3 fights have now gone at least 10 rounds, starting with his star-making Fight of the Year KO over Klitschko where he almost got knocked out earlier in the fight, and a slow breakdown of the overmatched replacement Carlos Takam. Parker's got a great jab and is very durable, and Joshua showed him respect and didn't force the issue or take risks, winning his first fight by decision.
This one could be a decision as well, or a late KO by Joshua, but I rate him at about 80% to get the job done. He's the more skilled, intelligent boxer, and I'd argue that he has just as much power as Wilder, who is known for his vaunted right hand. He also has ~30 lbs., and will have the crowd behind him. Not that that will deter Wilder's enormous self-belief, but it could swing some rounds in the judges' minds. Wilder cannot fight inside, he cannot jab, he looks to unload a big straight right, and then finish opponents off with a series of wild windmill punches. He "cuffs" a lot of shots.
This one seems easy, again, 80%. Maybe that is a little conservative. Gonna hit it now and again later if the price tightens.