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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (12 Viewers)

Your Vargas is showing again. Vargas' career at new Yankee Stadium sucks. All-time versus the Yankees he is 2-7 SU (avg line 163) with 39R allowed in 43.1 innings pitched (1-4 SU away with 25 runs allowed in 22.2 innings).

NY o4½ +105

 
Angry Beavers said:
Why Q1 versus the half or the game?
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For a few reasons:

1.) If it hits, I'm going to immediately double-down on a Q2 or Q3 line. I want to be able to hit as many winning plays out of this game as I can.

2.) If it loses, then I can probably get the first half price (Warriors -7) at a better line / less juice than I would have prior to the game by betting on the Q2 spread. So I can still "bet" on that 1H line in this scenario, while also having a quarter of play to gauge things off of.

3.) In elimination games, Warriors have put up 45 and 39 points in the first quarter. I think that's intentional, they come out fast and play hard knowing they've got days of rest coming up.

4.) In these elimination games, the Warriors have outscored their opponents by 22 and 23 points in the first quarter. In the second quarter, they outscored the Blazers by 1 and were outscored by the Jazz by 14. The data suggests that the Warriors have not done anything to "help" their lead in the second quarter of any of those games, so I decided to isolate the first quarter instead of including a quarter that does not appear to give me any significant advantage.

Half / Quarter data:

1H: 72 (GSW -24), 60 (GSW -8)
2H: 56 (GSW -1), 61 (GSW-18)

Q1: 45 (GSW -23), 39 (GSW -22)
Q2: 27 (GSW -1), 21 (UTA +14)
Q3: 34 (GSW-2), 33 (GSW -6)

 
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they have all those articles on buying the hook on the three in football. there's got to be an article on how much to pay to from 8 to 7 in baseball.

 
regularguy said:
I put in for a 5d BTC payout late last week which got denied yesterday because I had DBA turned off apparently. Missed out on 10% BTC growth.  :wall:   At least, a Heritage payout hit quick enough for the weekend ride. 
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On 2nd thought.... :unsure:   

edit:  rebounding now.  Weird chart this afternoon.

 
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the concept of both teams score 3 and the 7 is safe just trips me out. like on the 5 in hockey, both teams score 2 you're halfway home. fishing for an excuse to buy runs over here

 
Yo the Cubs are 27-14-1 O/U and 15-0 O/U lined < -170. I'm going to try to jump in on the over. Hopefully it's three up three down and then buy.

 
AND my Ducks bets are dead  :(  

It was a good run. Played with a lot of intensity tonight, couldn't get it done. Disappointing.

 
We're taking this to another level...

July 7th Ultimate Fighter Season Finale

July 8th Quacker State 400 at Kentucky  7:30 eastern Saturday night

and 

UFC 213

unveiling the new profile with videos/streams broadcasting from here:

http://imgur.com/a/CAuMj

We shall see how the hooter brand sells, I'm going to try to throw my best self out there and see what happens.  In my professional life I make it a point to under promise and over deliver so I'll have few more surprises up my sleeve...

 
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I think CLE comes out ready tonight - looking at both Q1 and 1H lines.  Game 3 they were up by 20, bored and did not respect the Celtics at all. I think they step on their throat tonight early and don't give them the chance to come back. 

GLTA
AB

 
hooter311 said:
We're taking this to another level...

July 7th Ultimate Fighter Season Finale

July 8th Quacker State 400 at Kentucky  7:30 eastern Saturday night

and 

UFC 213

unveiling the new profile with videos/streams broadcasting from here:

http://imgur.com/a/CAuMj

We shall see how the hooter brand sells, I'm going to try to throw my best self out there and see what happens.  In my professional life I make it a point to under promise and over deliver so I'll have few more surprises up my sleeve...
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So if I'm reading this correctly you're starting a service?

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Seems like a pretty bad value imo.

FWIW, they are +1025 to win the West on 5d and +800 at Bovada.

Personally, I think I like Nashville (+1600 at Bovada) or the Kings (+1375 at 5d) better.
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gussy said:
Well clearly my locals are effing me, lol. I have a Bovada account, I should have looked there, I hardly ever use it. Maybe I should deposit and play it there as well. I could see the Kings as a long shot, I don't see the Preds at all. And, needless to say, I'd love the Ducks at those 2 numbers. I should probably open a 5D account
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Aaron Rudnicki said:
What's not too like about Nashville? Underlying stats show them as one of the better teams in the league. They beat a better Ducks team in the 1st round last year and took the Sharks to 7 games in round 2 also. Love their defense too.

I just don't trust Carlyle for the Ducks. He was just so bad during his time in Toronto.
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Sorry about your Ducks, gussy.

Not sure if anybody tailed after these posts, but had my biggest win in awhile with the Preds winning the West.

FWIW, I did throw some money on the Ducks at those odds so I was going to be happy either way in this conference finals.

 
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Aaron Rudnicki said:
Sorry about your Ducks, gussy.

Not sure if anybody tailed after these posts, but had my biggest win in awhile with the Preds winning the West.

FWIW, I did throw some money on the Ducks at those odds so I was going to be happy either way in this conference finals.
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sweeeet
Nashville killed my Hawks futures, then I didn't learn my lesson and took the ducks when this series was 2-2.........M NIGHT SHMALALADINGDONG TWIST!!!!!!

I must have accidentally picked the Preds cause i won that bet.

Score 1 for the dumb guys!

 
Angry Beavers said:
I think CLE comes out ready tonight - looking at both Q1 and 1H lines.  Game 3 they were up by 20, bored and did not respect the Celtics at all. I think they step on their throat tonight early and don't give them the chance to come back. 

GLTA
AB
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I would look at some LeBron James points props and see if there's any overreaction one way or the other.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Sorry about your Ducks, gussy.

Not sure if anybody tailed after these posts, but had my biggest win in awhile with the Preds winning the West.

FWIW, I did throw some money on the Ducks at those odds so I was going to be happy either way in this conference finals.
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I was actually going to post good hit on your part, I remember you being on the Preds when I posted the Ducks however long ago that was. At the time I really felt like the West was wide open and I didn't trust any of the other teams in the Pacific. I regretted the bet a short time after I made it, then the Ducks got hot and I thought maybe I had a chance. I had a chance. It was close. The only thing I knew for SURE at the time I placed the bet was that I didn't think the Hawks had any chance and I thought the odds on the Wild were too low. Good hit Ruds.

 
got_nugs said:
Like....covering the 'she who must not be named' big?  That's awesome.  I would've been so happy for the predators win if not knowing that Clay Travis is also so happy about it. 
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no, not that big. that crushed me. still trying to climb out of that hole.

 
we b doin business deals big pimpin the ATX and whatnot. u know wat I'm saying spending cheese ridin' spinners to church and blades to school. starting companies that subsequently provide income to multiple people and families while building lasting relationships throughout the greater community u know wat I'm sayin

 
gussy said:
To be honest, a lot of the things you throw out there I think are arbitrary and contrived.
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I still agree w you. But check this out. Check out what Killer Sports barfed up for today:

Play the Blue Jays OVER as a rested road dog in the first game of a series off a road game in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent.
Play AGAINST the Marlins as a dog in a series opener when they are off a loss and they lost the last two games that their starter started.
Play AGAINST the Rays vs a righty at home when their line is within 20 cents of pickem off a game as a favorite when they won the last two games their starter started.
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I mean come on, right. They display no integrity. No respect toward the game. That's not art. Also, imagine just saying those sentences out loud to another person:

"Who do you like today?"
"I like the A's because playing the Rays vs a righty at home when their line is within 20 cents of pickem off a game as a favorite when they won the last two games their starter started is 19-0 since 2012."

You'd slap a man if he said that to you out loud with a straight face.

 
ChainsawU said:
I still agree w you. But check this out. Check out what Killer Sports barfed up for today:

I mean come on, right. They display no integrity. No respect toward the game. That's not art. Also, imagine just saying those sentences out loud to another person:

"Who do you like today?"
"I like the A's because playing the Rays vs a righty at home when their line is within 20 cents of pickem off a game as a favorite when they won the last two games their starter started is 19-0 since 2012."

You'd slap a man if he said that to you out loud with a straight face.
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What is this? Go back and find all the stupid stuff Gussy said in February day? Jeebus. For the record Chain, you're the only guy I tail on baseball here. Not all the time, but when it makes sense.

 
Ah, no I didn't mean to sound like that. I didn't mean it like that. What I meant to do is point the finger at them. I was just pointing the finger at them after what we had talked about in Feb.

 
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