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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (7 Viewers)

hogs on mnf

Hank Williams Jr. released his album Hog Wild on January 24, 1995. Since then, NFC East Monday Night Football rivalry games have gone 23-10 SU and 27-6 ATS (avg line 2) in favor of the road team. Only three of the 10 SU losses came by > 5 points. Underdogs in that situation went 15-7 SU and 19-3 ATS (avg line 5½). Also - during the L11 seasons - the Redskins have gone 22-8 ATS (avg line 5) on the road versus division rivals (1st NFL).

Redskins +5 -115

 
Hou/NYY Under 8 - 105 - I think we see a pitchers duel. Astros Pen has been a dumpster fire so Keuchel will have to go as long as he can. Both starters have the ability to shut down the opponent. I see a game where the 1st team to 4 runs win. 

Tanaka O5.5 K's EV - Houston has been very quiet with the bats. I expect more K's this time around. 

GLTA
AB

 
L5 seasons Houston as the < double-digit favorite: 18-1 to the under

The one game that went over the total in that situation: Last year at Memphis went over the total by 30 points

 
some chalk stuff

Chalk Bits

Army, which hosts Temple on Saturday, got its breakthrough 2016 underway with an upset of the Owls in the opener. That game ended a six-game run of straight-up and ATS dominance for TU, which had only let the Knights come within 13 points once in that span. The Knights, notorious for underachieving as chalk, are giving weight to an FBS team for the fifth time this season and are 1-4 ATS so far.

TCU has beaten league doormat Kansas each year since joining the Big 12, but something about the Frogs brings out the best in the downtrodden Jayhawks. The average margin of victory is just a touchdown, and just once has TCU scored more than 27 points.

BYU and Florida State have been the season's biggest money-burners thus far -- they are the only two teams yet to cover a game. Georgia Tech, Buffalo, UCF and Utah are the four remaining teams with unblemished records at the window.

Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech have only been Conference USA league-mates since 2013, but this is a heated regional rivalry of the 1980s and '90s that was renewed back in 2010 and has seen six meetings in the seven years since. Underdogs have covered four of the six, including a pair of Southern Miss upsets the past two years, and bettors would be wise to know the story of the bad blood in those games before moving on this year's tilt.

The teams met to close the 2015 regular season with the West division on the line, and Southern Miss delivered a 58-24 road blowout. Last year, Tech entered the game in Hattiesburg with an 8-3 record, the West division already clinched and jawing at Southern players on social media about running up the score in retaliation for the 2016 blowout on a scuffling Eagles team that had lost three straight and five of six. Southern Miss, at 5-6, needed the win to earn a bowl berth in Jay Hopson's first year and responded with a physical beat-down of the visiting Bulldogs that wasn't nearly as close as the 39-24 final.

 
Chargers and Dolphins fall under the category of "home favorite versus a team you lost to less than seven weeks ago," which has gone 19-1 SU and 14-6 ATS the L6 seasons. Ah yes, one's proverbial revenge knows no expiration, but is best served cold within the first six weeks.

 
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Medicare enrollment started this week, and health insurance enrollment is right around the corner. I have about 1100 client reviews along with attempting to pick up another 200-300 clients which means all is well but I'm going to be ghost for a few months.  I'll play/post/win when I can, twitter is going to be easier to post on, so make sure to follow and feel free to share here anything @hooterknows posts.

Keep crushing brothers!

 
game 5

L3 seasons Cubs 19-16 SU playoffs:
Game < 4: 9-13 SU
Game ≥ 4: 10-3 SU

Same time period Dodgers 13-10 SU:
Game < 4: 10-5 SU
Game ≥ 4: 3-5 SU

Also like ump: Since 2015 Cubs 7-3 SU 55 runs scored w/ Welke.

 
ChainsawU said:
game 5

L3 seasons Cubs 19-16 SU playoffs:
Game < 4: 9-13 SU
Game ≥ 4: 10-3 SU

Same time period Dodgers 13-10 SU:
Game < 4: 10-5 SU
Game ≥ 4: 3-5 SU

Also like ump: Since 2015 Cubs 7-3 SU 55 runs scored w/ Welke.
Click to expand...
So you're saying there's a chance.................

 
I feel like I'm getting a really nice discount on Amari Cooper over receptions.  It's been a rough year for Amari but he's still getting targets.  :shrug:

 
On a bunch of Europa games for action but I like Marseille most. Taking them -1.5 -135.

Also took o2.5 -170

Guimaraes has been leaking goals in their league. 8 games 14 goals.

This has 3 -0  written all over it.

 
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I delivered a eulogy in public speaking today. An assigned eulogy, but we got to pick the person. I did mine on a storm chaser and opened with a deadpan, "He died doing what he loved; chasing multi-vortex tornadoes," along with referring to mother nature as father time's cruel mistress. So with my week done I got a ticket to see Donnell Rawlings at 8PM, followed by either going to the strip club (-500) or just going home for the night (+325). And then I get to wake up and see my chick before she flies to Michigan. It's going to be a two-day, sobriety-breaking, spur-of-the-moment bender all because of the "I'm rıch, bıtch!" dude is in town.

 
Not much for me tonight

Cooper o3.5 -120 and -130 and o4 +125

Carr u40.5 -135 longest completion

Cook u40.5 rec yards -125

 
Raiders are just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 playing on a Thursday. The Chiefs have covered nine in a row following a game scoring 15 points or fewer as they did in Week 6.

 
Kershaw Over 6.5K's -135:  With apologies to @gussy I think today is the day the Dodgers close out this series and get a dominant start by Kershaw. 

GLTA
AB

 
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1. Chris Taylor (R) CF
2. Justin Turner (R) 3B
3. Cody Bellinger (L) 1B
4. Yasiel Puig (R) RF
5. Logan Forsythe (R) 2B
6. Enrique Hernandez (R) LF
7. Austin Barnes (R) C
8. Charlie Culberson (R) SS
9. Clayton Kershaw (L) 

those 5-8 hitters don't look overly intimating.  

lets go Cubs.

 
mybookie gave me the talk today, said my action was 90% props which seems low, I would have thought more like 95%.

Props are still turned off so for now I'm done there, several other books to burn there before I go back there and push a little more.

 
Thank goodness dreams usually don't come true because in our dreams we usually experience strong waves of emotion that urge us to do battle with imaginary predators.

Houston -120
Lafayette +390

 
Does seem like a game Kershaw gets up for. Can't remember a game I backed him, or someone like the Pats, or GSW, or Spurs. What's it like to back huge favorites. Saw the Rodman Joe Buck interview last night before bed. Didn't even know they won two championships on the Pistons. All I knew was that Lambeer was physical. Rodman says he thinks Pop traded him to the Bulls because he thought Rodman's presence - it'd sabotage them from the inside. Didn't know Pop was a bible dude.

 
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