comfortably numb
Footballguy
Melo u23.5
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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter The Ref
- Start date
Big League Chew
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
I think Bills and Titans both getting rolled. I mean that's a lot of points but I expect both those teams will struggle to score
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Ms. Ref is calmly swishing shot after shot from halfcourt. You tripped over some chairs walking on to the court and pooped yourself a little.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Those wildcard games went 27-36-1 O/U.
O/U by how many times they've met this season:
Meeting for the first time: 5-18-1 (.217) O/U
Second meeting of the season: 17-13 (.567) O/U
Third meeting of the season: 5-5 (.500) O/U
KC, LA, and JAX will all be meeting the opposing team for the first time this season.
Borden
Footballguy
Zegras11
Footballguy
Borden
Footballguy
Shaw most likely. Then move Sharp into Shaw’s RW spot.
What do you think about the trade for me?
Zegras11
Footballguy
Rakell is on fire since Getz is back. 7g3a +8 in last 6 games. Don;t understand it at all. Shaw's not that good. Josi not mush better than your 4th d guy. What am I missing?
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
I'm on a nice 9-1, +$5223.22 run.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Sorry if double post:
Since 1996, NFL teams favored by -7.5 or more in the wild card round are 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS. (Jax,KC)
Since 2007, home teams in the Saturday wild-card games are 14-5-1 ATS.
No QB making their first playoff start as a road dog of 7+ has covered in the last 15 years.
Since 1996, NFL teams favored by -7.5 or more in the wild card round are 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS. (Jax,KC)
Since 2007, home teams in the Saturday wild-card games are 14-5-1 ATS.
No QB making their first playoff start as a road dog of 7+ has covered in the last 15 years.
Last edited by a moderator:
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Peter King pimping Hunt for ROY because he won the rushing title. Hopefully a bunch of voters have that old school mentality
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Makes sense since the early day hurts the road team most.
That said, I'm a little leery of the Rams as an inexperienced home chalk (4-4 record at the Mausoleum this year) vs. a playoff veteran in the Falcons (5-3 on the road this year).
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I would be tempted to make a small play on Georgia + the points and try to win twice.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Do these guys have groupies?North American League Championship Series (NALCS) begins Jan 20!
Time to start breaking down the teams.
hagmania
Footballguy
Yeah, a couple famous examples in the esports scene ackshually.
kellymilkies (Dota2) might be the most famous/infamous.
gussy
Footballguy
Panthers/Wings U5.5 (-110)
lot of value tonight on Vegas and San Jose, but I'm a Hawks fan and I'm not betting an expansion team on the road playing my
favorite team. Sharks on back to back, so that gives me pause. I also kind of like Sens TT under if it weren't for the back to back
thing.
lot of value tonight on Vegas and San Jose, but I'm a Hawks fan and I'm not betting an expansion team on the road playing my
favorite team. Sharks on back to back, so that gives me pause. I also kind of like Sens TT under if it weren't for the back to back
thing.
Donkey Derp
Footballguy
Somebody (Chainsaw I think) posted this SOS angle a few years ago. Pittsburgh covered easily last year as SOS 10+. Oakland lost outright but also didn't have a QB.
This would suggest Buffalo and Atlanta this year.
http://www.sportsmemo.com/blogs/view/?blog_id=18422
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Trends/notes/whatever angle you want.
- How can you make money in the #NFLPlayoffs? Pick the straight-up winner Since 2003, the winning team in the Wild Card Round is 48-5-3 (90.6%) ATS
- L.A. and Sacksonville saw their win totals jump by seven games apiece. Since 1990, 23 other franchises had a win total improvement of seven or more games. The teams that made a big jump from one year to the next went 13-18 (41.9%) straight-up and 9-22 (29.0%) ATS in the playoffs.
- Andy Reid is 1-6 straight-up and against the spread in his past seven postseason tilts
- Is Ed Hochuli a dog or cat person? Well, underdogs are 89-66-4 (57.4%) ATS under his watch, and big dogs, teams getting 6 or more points, have gone 36-19-2 (65.5%) ATS when Biceps Ed oversees a game. Doing the Falcons game
-Since 1990, nine teams have broken playoff droughts of 10-plus years: Two are the Rams and Bills this season, and the seven other teams were all eliminated in either the wild card or divisional round of the playoffs. The past four teams to break a lengthy playoff drought — the 2016 Raiders (13 yrs), 2005 Bengals (14 yrs), 2011 Lions (11 yrs), and 1999 Seahawks (10 yrs) — all lost and failed to cover their first playoff game
- In the past 15 seasons, 11 teams have played a home playoff game coming off a losing streak of two or more games. Those teams are 8-3 SU and ATS, and they have won and covered four in a row and six of their past seven dating back to the 2010 playoffs. Jags
- The Saints beat the Panthers twice during the regular season, and since 1990, 16 teams have defeated the same opponent twice straight up in the same season and then subsequently faced them again in the playoffs. Those teams are 11-5 SU and 8-7-1 ATS.
- The total for Saints-Panthers sits at 47.5, the second-highest in the Wild Card round. A majority of bets and dollars are on the over, which could burn bettors. Ref Tony Corrente is the least profitable Over official in our database, going 64-87-2 (42.4%). In high total games (46 or more points), the Over is 22-36 (37.9%) when Corrente is on the field
- The Rams lead the league in scoring (29.9 points per game). In the past 15 years, teams that have scored 28 PPG or more are 24-33 ATS (42.1%) in the playoffs. Also keep this in mind for the Patriots, Eagles, and Saints, who all eclipsed 28 PPG this season.
- The first method you can use when betting on playoff totals involves games played in a dome. Historically, taking the over in these games has been very profitable.
Closed Dome Games
OVERS
Record (win pct.)25-8 (75.8 percent)
Outdoor unders
If dome games usually go over in the playoffs, one would imagine that outdoor games may go under more often than not. If we take a look at the Bet Labs database, we find that has been the case since the 2003 season, even more so when focusing on high totals.
Outdoor Games
UNDERSUNDERS 47.5-PLUS
Record (win pct.)66-50-4 (56.9 percent)24-7-2 (77.4 percent)
Units won+12.12+15.38
ROI+10.1 percent+46.6 percent
Since many of these outdoor games have featured brutal winter elements, it's understandable that offenses have had a tough time scoring points. At nearly a 57 percent clip, betting on outdoor unders as a whole has been a profitable approach over the past decade-plus. However, if we only look at games with a closing total of 47.5 or higher, our winning percentage and return on investment both skyrocket.
Why it works
We saw that games go over in domed games regardless of the total, but when oddsmakers set high totals for outdoor games, the under has had a significant advantage.
This really goes against the public's beliefs, as it usually takes the over in games featuring potent offenses. Of the 33 outdoor playoff games since 2003 with a total of 47.5 or higher, only one has had more than 50 percent of bets on the under -- and it was 51 percent.
Taking the under in a football or basketball game always has some contrarian value because the public has historically sided with the over in more than 80 percent of games.
Wild-card match: Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams
There is one match this weekend that may scare off some bettors, and it features the Rams and their league-best offense. At 29.9 point per game (including the Sean MannionWeek 17 affair), the Rams shocked the league thanks to Todd Gurley II and Jared Goff. They'll be hosting Atlanta, whose high-scoring offense from 2016 had a down season. At 22.1 points per game, the Falcons were essentially an average team this season.
So far, 57 percent of bettors have taken the over, but 80 percent of the dollars have come in on the under. That caused the total to drop from 50 to 48.5 at the sharp offshore sportsbook Pinnacle, and from 50.5 to 49 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Try to grab the under on the highest number that you can in case it continues to drop.
Pick: Under 49 total points
Units won+16.41
ROI+49.7 percent
Not too shabby. Last season, playoff games in a dome went over the closing total every time, going 5-0. This even included the NFC Championship and Super Bowl, which closed with totals of 59.5 and 57, respectively.
Why it works
They say defense wins championships. Well, that may often be true, and many people expect unders to do well in the postseason given the caliber of playoff teams' defenses, but that does not hold true indoors.
With no elements to battle, postseason offenses run like well-oiled machines in closed domes. Though the total has dropped or remained at its opening number in 19 of the 33 matches, suggesting sharper bettors aren't expecting high-scoring affairs, it hasn't mattered. In fact, these totals have gone over by an average margin of 6.33 points.
Wild-card match: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
We have one match that fits this weekend, as two familiar foes clash in the Superdome. Six of the past seven games between the Saints and Panthers have gone over, including both games this season.
This game will be essentially a replica of the game a month ago, in which the Saints won 31-21. Seventy-nine percent of bettors took the over in that game, which opened and closed at 48. This weekend's total is sitting at 48.5/49 around the market, but just 54 percent of bettors are on the over.
As I mentioned before, it seems as if bettors expect playoff games to be more of a defensive showdown than regular-season games. There really isn't a reason why close to 80 percent of bettors liked the over a month ago, but barely half do now. It's the same teams, same coaches and same players. Nothing has changed other than the fact that we're now in the playoffs.
With 57 percent of dollars on the under, we may see this total drop down to 48 by week's end. Keep an eye on the number but take the over below 49 if you can.
- How can you make money in the #NFLPlayoffs? Pick the straight-up winner Since 2003, the winning team in the Wild Card Round is 48-5-3 (90.6%) ATS
- L.A. and Sacksonville saw their win totals jump by seven games apiece. Since 1990, 23 other franchises had a win total improvement of seven or more games. The teams that made a big jump from one year to the next went 13-18 (41.9%) straight-up and 9-22 (29.0%) ATS in the playoffs.
- Andy Reid is 1-6 straight-up and against the spread in his past seven postseason tilts
- Is Ed Hochuli a dog or cat person? Well, underdogs are 89-66-4 (57.4%) ATS under his watch, and big dogs, teams getting 6 or more points, have gone 36-19-2 (65.5%) ATS when Biceps Ed oversees a game. Doing the Falcons game
-Since 1990, nine teams have broken playoff droughts of 10-plus years: Two are the Rams and Bills this season, and the seven other teams were all eliminated in either the wild card or divisional round of the playoffs. The past four teams to break a lengthy playoff drought — the 2016 Raiders (13 yrs), 2005 Bengals (14 yrs), 2011 Lions (11 yrs), and 1999 Seahawks (10 yrs) — all lost and failed to cover their first playoff game
- In the past 15 seasons, 11 teams have played a home playoff game coming off a losing streak of two or more games. Those teams are 8-3 SU and ATS, and they have won and covered four in a row and six of their past seven dating back to the 2010 playoffs. Jags
- The Saints beat the Panthers twice during the regular season, and since 1990, 16 teams have defeated the same opponent twice straight up in the same season and then subsequently faced them again in the playoffs. Those teams are 11-5 SU and 8-7-1 ATS.
- The total for Saints-Panthers sits at 47.5, the second-highest in the Wild Card round. A majority of bets and dollars are on the over, which could burn bettors. Ref Tony Corrente is the least profitable Over official in our database, going 64-87-2 (42.4%). In high total games (46 or more points), the Over is 22-36 (37.9%) when Corrente is on the field
- The Rams lead the league in scoring (29.9 points per game). In the past 15 years, teams that have scored 28 PPG or more are 24-33 ATS (42.1%) in the playoffs. Also keep this in mind for the Patriots, Eagles, and Saints, who all eclipsed 28 PPG this season.
- The first method you can use when betting on playoff totals involves games played in a dome. Historically, taking the over in these games has been very profitable.
Closed Dome Games
OVERS
Record (win pct.)25-8 (75.8 percent)
Outdoor unders
If dome games usually go over in the playoffs, one would imagine that outdoor games may go under more often than not. If we take a look at the Bet Labs database, we find that has been the case since the 2003 season, even more so when focusing on high totals.
Outdoor Games
UNDERSUNDERS 47.5-PLUS
Record (win pct.)66-50-4 (56.9 percent)24-7-2 (77.4 percent)
Units won+12.12+15.38
ROI+10.1 percent+46.6 percent
Since many of these outdoor games have featured brutal winter elements, it's understandable that offenses have had a tough time scoring points. At nearly a 57 percent clip, betting on outdoor unders as a whole has been a profitable approach over the past decade-plus. However, if we only look at games with a closing total of 47.5 or higher, our winning percentage and return on investment both skyrocket.
Why it works
We saw that games go over in domed games regardless of the total, but when oddsmakers set high totals for outdoor games, the under has had a significant advantage.
This really goes against the public's beliefs, as it usually takes the over in games featuring potent offenses. Of the 33 outdoor playoff games since 2003 with a total of 47.5 or higher, only one has had more than 50 percent of bets on the under -- and it was 51 percent.
Taking the under in a football or basketball game always has some contrarian value because the public has historically sided with the over in more than 80 percent of games.
Wild-card match: Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams
There is one match this weekend that may scare off some bettors, and it features the Rams and their league-best offense. At 29.9 point per game (including the Sean MannionWeek 17 affair), the Rams shocked the league thanks to Todd Gurley II and Jared Goff. They'll be hosting Atlanta, whose high-scoring offense from 2016 had a down season. At 22.1 points per game, the Falcons were essentially an average team this season.
So far, 57 percent of bettors have taken the over, but 80 percent of the dollars have come in on the under. That caused the total to drop from 50 to 48.5 at the sharp offshore sportsbook Pinnacle, and from 50.5 to 49 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Try to grab the under on the highest number that you can in case it continues to drop.
Pick: Under 49 total points
Units won+16.41
ROI+49.7 percent
Not too shabby. Last season, playoff games in a dome went over the closing total every time, going 5-0. This even included the NFC Championship and Super Bowl, which closed with totals of 59.5 and 57, respectively.
Why it works
They say defense wins championships. Well, that may often be true, and many people expect unders to do well in the postseason given the caliber of playoff teams' defenses, but that does not hold true indoors.
With no elements to battle, postseason offenses run like well-oiled machines in closed domes. Though the total has dropped or remained at its opening number in 19 of the 33 matches, suggesting sharper bettors aren't expecting high-scoring affairs, it hasn't mattered. In fact, these totals have gone over by an average margin of 6.33 points.
Wild-card match: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
We have one match that fits this weekend, as two familiar foes clash in the Superdome. Six of the past seven games between the Saints and Panthers have gone over, including both games this season.
This game will be essentially a replica of the game a month ago, in which the Saints won 31-21. Seventy-nine percent of bettors took the over in that game, which opened and closed at 48. This weekend's total is sitting at 48.5/49 around the market, but just 54 percent of bettors are on the over.
As I mentioned before, it seems as if bettors expect playoff games to be more of a defensive showdown than regular-season games. There really isn't a reason why close to 80 percent of bettors liked the over a month ago, but barely half do now. It's the same teams, same coaches and same players. Nothing has changed other than the fact that we're now in the playoffs.
With 57 percent of dollars on the under, we may see this total drop down to 48 by week's end. Keep an eye on the number but take the over below 49 if you can.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
What will be the biggest point differential in any of the four games during Wild Card Weekend?
Over/Under: 20.5
Since 2003, on average the point differential in the Wild Card games has been 12.4 points. In last 14 postseasons, the biggest point differential in any of the four games topped 20.5 points nine times. Larger spreads should lead to bigger margins of victory. Three of the four games this year have a spread of 7 or more points. Since 2003, in years where at least two games in Wild Card weekend featured a favorite of a touchdown or more, at least one team won by more than 20.5 points in four of the five seasons.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
What will be the most points scored by one team during Wild Card Weekend?
Over/Under: 34.5
Since 2003, if you bet the Over 34.5 you would have gone 10-4 during Wild Card Weekend. Big spreads and two games with high totals (over 47) should produce some gaudy point totals.
Lean: Over
Over/Under: 34.5
Since 2003, if you bet the Over 34.5 you would have gone 10-4 during Wild Card Weekend. Big spreads and two games with high totals (over 47) should produce some gaudy point totals.
Lean: Over
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
ChainsawU
Footballguy
I've been looking for ways to bet the dogs. Trying. But I still don't want to yet. I haven't found anything to push me over the tipping point. But this point about inexperience and the Jaguars "weakest SOS in the NFL" are the two I keep hearing people say/write again and again.
Been testing additional theorys....found another one I like with a huge sample size across entire college hoops landscape. 56.5% (683-526-32) for an ROI of 9.7%.
Theory is that the line on Visiting Dogs who are poor ATS & have a large ATS difference (greater than 30%) worse than their opponent will given too many points.
Play tonight is UNC Wilmington +10
Theory is that the line on Visiting Dogs who are poor ATS & have a large ATS difference (greater than 30%) worse than their opponent will given too many points.
Play tonight is UNC Wilmington +10
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Sagarin's number was strong when Seattle upset Broncos in the Super Bowl in 2014 and when Ohio State upset Oregon in 2015. They were far and away Sagarin's #1 ranked team in those two situations. I remember the NFL SOS thing, too. The one you're talking about. I remember trying it and failing, or backing away from it at least. I just remember cooling on that SOS angle before everything was said and done. That's all I remember.
Jags' SOS has been pretty hot lately. I think a lot of people are passionate about that; people who are backing the Bills.
facook
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
FL Propositions - Offensive Rookie of the Year
Sat 2/3 25901 Alvin Kamara wins Offensive ROY -560
12:00PM 25902 Field wins Offensive Rookie of the Year +370
:(
Sat 2/3 25901 Alvin Kamara wins Offensive ROY -560
12:00PM 25902 Field wins Offensive Rookie of the Year +370
:(
facook
Footballguy
facook
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Daily News reporting BB "could" have interest in coaching the Giants, but I am also reporting from my living room that he could have interest in coaching the Tulsa Frackers in XFL2 next year.
facook
Footballguy
I love that BOL lists him as a longshot to be the new MNF analyst next year. Cause going from "I love everyone!" Gruden to "Mumbles" Belichek would be mooooooney.
facook
Footballguy
