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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (6 Viewers)

Stuart Ullman said:
Opposite side for me. This will be Justin Turner's 3rd game back and I'm predicting he gets his first RBI of the year against a 2nd year pitcher.

I know it takes baseball players awhile to find their groove, but he's the MVP!

Of course, I play F5 so maybe we both win. : )

F5 - Doggers ML, -140
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Not saying you're wrong, but why would you lay 140 with Maeda pitching for a team that's lost 9 of their last 10?
It's one thing if it's EV or something, but laying 140?

 
gussy said:
Not saying you're wrong, but why would you lay 140 with Maeda pitching for a team that's lost 9 of their last 10?
It's one thing if it's EV or something, but laying 140?
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I like Maeda, he is solid besides when he goes against power hitters. The big thing is Turner is back.

He brings clutch hits and leadership to a team. If this team will make a turn around, it's with him back in the lineup.

Maybe I paid too much juice but the Marlins are also going for a sweep. Good spot for Dodgers to pick up a W and if they don't....

I'll just blame it on being a "get away game". ?

 
Wine Thief said:
Well dudes, interesting update!  My wife and daughter surprised me today, told me they were a comin home 10 days early and would be here within the hour.  The tumor is now so small that he wants to hold off on any more treatments and explore other options on how to proceed which could include doing nothing at all.

Pretty much the best day ever.
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Saw this yesterday but was traveling all day - congrats!  That is great news!

 
Ram it. If you know how to Ram it, just Ram it.

We know how to Ram it.
We’ll be rocking L.A., so let’s Ram it today. Just Ram it.

 
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advanced math question: 

Receiver A is projected to get 78 yards, Receiver B 63 yards, and Receiver C to get 94 yards. How do you calculate how often each will have the most yards?

 
Kyle Freeland career 24-11-1 (.686) to the under.

  • 11-1 to the under vs opposing lefties
  • 11-3-1 to the under vs division
He's also 4-0 to the under on 5 days' rest this year with 5R allowed in 27.1 innings.

 
Nats RL (-110)

will also look to get on Dodgers F5 TT, I'm guessing U1.5 once it's posted. Mad Max has given up 2 or more in the F5 twice this year.

Gussy. Finding new and exciting ways to fade the Dodgers every day.

I like the Padres getting plus money but I think I'm going to wait and see if I can get better than +119

 
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Good Posting Judge said:
advanced math question: 

Receiver A is projected to get 78 yards, Receiver B 63 yards, and Receiver C to get 94 yards. How do you calculate how often each will have the most yards? 
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Shick answer (and maybe right) is C 100% of the time. 

Otherwise, based on limited info I would correlate to % of total yards. A=78/(78+63+94)=33% of the time :shrug:

 
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lumpy19 said:
Not quite sure yet, I just saw the lines an hour ago and trying to l figure out the best approach and if there even is a way to capitalize or not.

I'm not sure how they'll grade tourney wagers because it seems like if they make the cut it will be determined by who goes farther in match play.  I'm not really sure how to take advantage of that.

I did play luiten over pieters for the tourney but haven't played much else.
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If you played luiten over pieters at bookmaker, you lose....but if you played it elsewhere we're still alive.  Not sure how they'll grade this once it goes to match play over the weekend.

 
Little AB (not so little actually at 17 and a rock but that is another story) has another amateur bout tonight. Likely the last one for a while as football workouts start 3x a week next month.  He has to make weight and he is one cranky dude. If only there was a line so I could offset the cost of his monthly membership and make a little extra for tolerating his tude'. I have to admit, it is tough to be too mad at him when he says to me -  "Dad, sorry I am being an ######. I am just hangry. "  There will be a chow down on epic proportions late tonight. When talking about post fight food, he talked about 6 different things and then added,  can we also get a side of like 30 wings?. LOL!

CLE -5.5 1H - I think that this falls into the system of teams down 2-0 headed home in the NBA playoffs. 

ETA - apparently combining the words for your read end coupled with something you wear on your head violates the language filter :shrug:

 
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Good Posting Judge said:
advanced math question: 

Receiver A is projected to get 78 yards, Receiver B 63 yards, and Receiver C to get 94 yards. How do you calculate how often each will have the most yards?
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Crack a beer, wait for a text from Swirve and know there is a 70% chance it’s right. 

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Always a good way to go, but I'm actually trying to understand the mathematical distribution beneath it. :nerd:
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I feel like you'd need to start by graphing the functions using past data using mins / maxes. However, I never passed calculas so I'm not sure how that would work.

I imagine you would begin by calculating how many times each player finished with the most yards over a respectable set of data (5-10 games). Whatever % that was could be a good indicator of probability.

Alternatively, if you believe the projections are accurate by the book who has done the leg work and that the odds of going over / under that number is a 50-50 bet. You can isolate the sitiation on a case by case basis.

For instance,

Player C goes over 90 while Player B and A go under their numbers (75 and 30) you know Player C has the most yards.

.50 x .50 x .50 = 12.5% probability of that event happening.

What gets tricky and why there's no real answer without more data. Is when conclusions can't be drawn

Let's say they all go over, a probability that's also 12.5%.

Player A over 90, Player B over 75, Player C over 30

You can't necessarily differentiate who has the most yards in this situation. You could add "rules" where if Player C and B have never gone over 90 yards, then you can assume that in all instances where Player A goes over, he has the most yards.

Which, we know would give him at worst, 50-50 odds to be the leader each time.

But there's also going to be scenarios where all players go under. Same situation as before, if Player C goes under 30 yards and players B and C have never had less than 30 yards. You can write a rule that says C cannot be the leader in that outcome and therefore increases the probability for the other two.

I don't get too much into probabilities. I roll with my gut and surface data to predict outcomes. Like, I don't like betting against common sense because the data tells me something is supposed to happen.
 
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Anyone point me to the teacher/student sex thread.  My wife just left to chaperone the high school dance at her school and she was really decked out....pretty sure I'm going to be posting her pic in that thread in the next few months.

Thanks

 
lumpy19 said:
Anyone point me to the teacher/student sex thread.  My wife just left to chaperone the high school dance at her school and she was really decked out....pretty sure I'm going to be posting her pic in that thread in the next few months.

Thanks
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Not sure if it survived the purge

post a pic though and I’ll try to cross reference it

 
Chicago Crubs -160 for the series. Seems chalky and donkish, but Cubs have superior pitching and their versatility should help them during tomorrow's DH. Think this should've been like +220/-270 tbh.

 
RAS release this earlier today for those that missed it an need action tonight

5/18/2018:  WNBA 302 Dallas/Phoenix Under 83 1st Half

I know it's moved but it's friday and i know everyone needs action

 
Angry Beavers said:
it is tough to be too mad at him when he says to me -  "Dad, sorry I am being an ######. I am just hangry."
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I always eat super clean before a fast and it curbs the emotions. If you eat dirty/unclean before a fast not only are you starving, but you're also processing all the toxins your fat has stored in it. It's the toxins, not the starving, that makes me get pissy during times like those.

 
I was asking about that new ice cream because I gained 10 pounds L2 weeks eating literally dozens of Snickers ice cream bars. I fasted and lost 4.8 pounds of it (whatever it was, a lot of water obviously) in the L3 days. I got some good fasting advice if you ever need it. And I know that dudes in here probably have advice on how to make weight before fights.

 
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