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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (13 Viewers)

Lowry -160 o Palmer(-156 at DSI)

Hoge -135 o Barnes

rose -155 o spieth

DJ -160 over tiger

Kuchar -120 over phil

Simpson -120 over leishman

 
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Since last August the Dodgers are 12-0 O/U 11±2 rpg in Hill starts when Rich went more than 5 innings in his previous start. sdql

Brewers/Dodgers o7 -150
Brewers/Dodgers o9 +155
Brewers/Dodgers o10 +209
Brewers/Dodgers o11 +304

 
Since his rookie season, Freeland has been the most profitable MLB underdog (17-8 SU against an average line of 136).

Rockies 131

 
Thoughts on Red Sox / Yankees F5 U6, -110

What would this line be if Aaron Judge was playing? 6.5? 7?
What would this line be if Sabathia wasn't the pitcher? 6.5? 7?

Meanwhile, the game is a pick em'. Something isn't right here. 58% of the money is on the over. What I am having difficulty determining is whether this is a situation where:

A.) These two teams are so volatile that F5 - O/U 6 is a given.
B.) The public will blindly bet overs when these two teams play, so Vegas sets the line at O/U 6 regardless of the variables.

 
Stuart Ullman said:
Thoughts on Red Sox / Yankees F5 U6, -110

What would this line be if Aaron Judge was playing? 6.5? 7?
What would this line be if Sabathia wasn't the pitcher? 6.5? 7?

Meanwhile, the game is a pick em'. Something isn't right here. 58% of the money is on the over. What I am having difficulty determining is whether this is a situation where:

A.) These two teams are so volatile that F5 - O/U 6 is a given.
B.) The public will blindly bet overs when these two teams play, so Vegas sets the line at O/U 6 regardless of the variables.
Click to expand...
Wind blowing out @ 14 mph

 
The Man With No Name said:
Wind blowing out @ 14 mph
Click to expand...
I get that.

My thought process is, what if Aaron Judge was playing in this game or a pitcher worse than Sabathia was on the mound? Would the line move to 6.5 or 7? Likely not, right? And because there is truly a "cap" on what they will set a F5 line, it starts to present values as you approach the MIN / MAX of a situation.

 
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lumpy19 said:
Several years ago I lost around 14k on preseason teasers and it was also my daughters bday, quite a mix of emotions
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Man, sorry. Didn't mean anything negative. Just makes me :lmao:  , of all the meaningless pre season games HoF is easily the most worthless. Over worth the price of admission.

 
mquinnjr said:
Man, sorry. Didn't mean anything negative. Just makes me :lmao:  , of all the meaningless pre season games HoF is easily the most worthless. Over worth the price of admission.
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Don't be sorry, winning is the best, losing is 2nd, not gambling is 3rd

 
I'm likely younger than a lot of you guys, so excuse my :mindblown: here. Broadcast showing Jerry Rice vs Randy Moss career receiving TDs sent me down a pro football reference hole. 1987 he played 12 games, and had a 65/1077/22 season. :eek:  that's roughly 5.4/89.75/1.83 a week. Good god, that is unreal.

 
L3 seasons Diamondbacks 34-12-1 O/U +$2,090 after a day off (1st MLB); 22-3-1 O/U with a total less than 9.

Over 7 -139
Over 7½ +100

 
Stuart Ullman said:
If Bears tie this, the whole thing is supicious. 1H Ravens were -1 and many books didn't offer ML, lol.
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I am genuinely curious, why I ask. Is there a +EV angle to 1H/F5 vs full game? Its hard enough to cap a full game, so I've always wondered if half is more profitable that full game.

 
mquinnjr said:
I'm likely younger than a lot of you guys, so excuse my :mindblown: here. Broadcast showing Jerry Rice vs Randy Moss career receiving TDs sent me down a pro football reference hole. 1987 he played 12 games, and had a 65/1077/22 season. :eek:  that's roughly 5.4/89.75/1.83 a week. Good god, that is unreal.
Click to expand...
22 tds on 65 catches  :shock:

 
During her entire career which Spice Girl became the most profitable underdog to inappropriately dress herself as an exotic cat.

 
mquinnjr said:
I am genuinely curious, why I ask. Is there a +EV angle to 1H/F5 vs full game? Its hard enough to cap a full game, so I've always wondered if half is more profitable that full game.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure. I know I find them more beatable myself but I don't think have any substance behind it. I think it's a huge advantage to get more action in and leverage your profit/loss and knowledge based on the results of the 1st half.

It depends on the sport and team. In every sport besides baseball, you get a 15+ minute break to think about the second half and next potential bet. I don't know if FH is more profitable though. I do know that Q3 - Warriors -infinity is the best bet on the board though.  :lol:

 
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