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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (9 Viewers)

gussy said:
How about just telling him to shut the eff up? How many of the other guys in here do you see that jump in here and beat their
chest when they have a good day. And who runs around calling themselves one of the best cappers on the planet? The dude's
a clown.

That being said, ahem, FINALLY a good game for some prop unders in the NFL

Keenan U6.5 (-120)
M. Williams U2.5 (+140)
Gates U2.5 (-185)
Henry U47.5 (-115)
C. Davis U59.5 (-130)
C. Davis U4.5 (-115)
Click to expand...
...........

10-4 (71.42%), +$559.46

See, this is why I laugh when people say I'm afraid to go against them in a capping contest. I drop a day like this against you, what are ANY of you going to do?

You're going to tilt and I'm going to spend the next 3 days watching you play catch up. I might not even have to make another pick, I can probably just watch you self-destruct under the pressure

What I'm going to do is go 6-0 and sweep. What are "any" of us going to do. You're a clown. Get out of your moms basement, quit eating ramen and quit acting like you're god's gift to capping.

 
pack100 said:
What analogy should I use ?

Give the ball to the ref...

Let the scoreboard do the talking...

More handicapping less talking...

You had a nice day yesterday, some people followed you, well done. 
Click to expand...
Thanks pal, I was especially obnoxious yesterday because I could tell early that something special was brewing.

:thumbup:

 
gussy said:
...........

10-4 (71.42%), +$559.46

See, this is why I laugh when people say I'm afraid to go against them in a capping contest. I drop a day like this against you, what are ANY of you going to do?

You're going to tilt and I'm going to spend the next 3 days watching you play catch up. I might not even have to make another pick, I can probably just watch you self-destruct under the pressure

What I'm going to do is go 6-0 and sweep. What are "any" of us going to do. You're a clown. Get out of your moms basement, quit eating ramen and quit acting like you're god's gift to capping.
Click to expand...
Player props don't impress me. Go 6-0 on sides and then talk to me.

 
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Angry Beavers said:
They all spend the same. :shrug:
Click to expand...
Not when you're cut to $25 a bet. That's the deal with prop bets, any book is going to cut you faster than you can put together 1 - 2 racks betting on them.

They're easy bets. If you know a QB is going under, then you know 3-4 of his receivers are going under as well.

You're going to spend more time looking for outs to let you bet them, than you are actually researching the bets.

 
Jets third consecutive home game - they've been sleeping in their own beds since September. L6 seasons 14-2-1 ATS catching 3 or more at home.

Jets +3 +105

 
Stuart Ullman said:
Not when you're cut to $25 a bet. That's the deal with prop bets, any book is going to cut you faster than you can put together 1 - 2 racks betting on them.

They're easy bets. If you know a QB is going under, then you know 3-4 of his receivers are going under as well.

You're going to spend more time looking for outs to let you bet them, than you are actually researching the bets.
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I’d tell you to find a local but you can’t fund your gambling addiction with credit cards with a local 

 
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I'll give you credit though @gussy. 6-0 is a good job.

Keenan U6.5 (-120) +83.33
M. Williams U2.5 (+140) +140
Gates U2.5 (-185) +54.05
Henry U47.5 (-115) +86.95
C. Davis U59.5 (-130) 76.92
C. Davis U4.5 (-115) +86.95

If we want to pretend like you've got a book that let's you get $100 down on player props, that's a nice $528.20 run.

I just want you to know though, I would never do a capping contest against someone who is picking prop bets while I'm doing sides.

But hey, great job nonetheless. Don't want to downplay you making money, that's more important than words.

:thumbup:

 
Stuart Ullman said:
Not when you're cut to $25 a bet. That's the deal with prop bets, any book is going to cut you faster than you can put together 1 - 2 racks betting on them.

They're easy bets. If you know a QB is going under, then you know 3-4 of his receivers are going under as well.

You're going to spend more time looking for outs to let you bet them, than you are actually researching the bets.
Click to expand...
BTW smarty, Rivers didn’t go under. The 3 receivers I bet did. Also, did u notice that when it was announced Gordon was out the line didn’t move? Breida must be WAY better than Gordon

 
Stuart Ullman said:
I'll give you credit though @gussy. 6-0 is a good job.

Keenan U6.5 (-120) +83.33
M. Williams U2.5 (+140) +140
Gates U2.5 (-185) +54.05
Henry U47.5 (-115) +86.95
C. Davis U59.5 (-130) 76.92
C. Davis U4.5 (-115) +86.95

If we want to pretend like you've got a book that let's you get $100 down on player props, that's a nice $528.20 run.

I just want you to know though, I would never do a capping contest against someone who is picking prop bets while I'm doing sides.

But hey, great job nonetheless. Don't want to downplay you making money, that's more important than words.

:thumbup:
Click to expand...
I bet to win a unit, not a unit to win whatever chump, so you’re more than a hundy short in your make believe world

 
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Stuart Ullman said:
I'll give you credit though @gussy. 6-0 is a good job.

Keenan U6.5 (-120) +83.33
M. Williams U2.5 (+140) +140
Gates U2.5 (-185) +54.05
Henry U47.5 (-115) +86.95
C. Davis U59.5 (-130) 76.92
C. Davis U4.5 (-115) +86.95

If we want to pretend like you've got a book that let's you get $100 down on player props, that's a nice $528.20 run.

I just want you to know though, I would never do a capping contest against someone who is picking prop bets while I'm doing sides.

But hey, great job nonetheless. Don't want to downplay you making money, that's more important than words.

:thumbup:
Click to expand...
If any bettor is sophisticated enough to beat sides for a lot, then they can beat props for even more. Why leave money on the ground?

(Theoretical) capping contest question: How long would it run? Through the SB? End of NBA/NHL? Open to others? Side-bet to winner?

 

 
gussy said:
I’d tell you to find a local but you can’t fund your gambling addiction with credit cards with a local 
Click to expand...
Don't spend another second on this non-sense. You went 6-0. You've got an entire NFL card to bet on.

Make yourself a bloody mary and enjoy your day. Even as big of a ######## you are to me, I want you to continue to win and enjoy yourself.

:coke:

 
Stuart Ullman said:
Don't spend another second on this non-sense. You went 6-0. You've got an entire NFL card to bet on.

Make yourself a bloody mary and enjoy your day. Even as big of a ######## you are to me, I want you to continue to win and enjoy yourself.

:coke:
Click to expand...
It’s a terrible card. There’s nothing worth betting on. Jets/Vikes U46 is it

 
Pats Vikes two square ### road faves are the two most popular wagers at S&O right now.

Bears/Jets +400

 
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gussy said:
BTW smarty, Rivers didn’t go under. The 3 receivers I bet did. Also, did u notice that when it was announced Gordon was out the line didn’t move? Breida must be WAY better than Gordon
Click to expand...
The exception is not the rule. Plus, without knowing if we're talking passings yards vs receiving yards or completions vs receptions, hard to verify.

gussy said:
I bet to win a unit, not a unit to win whatever chump, so you’re more than a hundy short in your make believe world
Click to expand...
Well, hey, great job! I only do the bet $100 to win x because it's much easy for my record keeping. Do you still do the same for plus money? Or do you wager the full unit there?

I'm not going to ask you about your unit size, but if you have a local that let's you bet more than $25 on a prop. You're sitting on a goldmine.

Good job, I couldn't have capped that game better myself.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
If any bettor is sophisticated enough to beat sides for a lot, then they can beat props for even more. Why leave money on the ground?

(Theoretical) capping contest question: How long would it run? Through the SB? End of NBA/NHL? Open to others? Side-bet to winner?

 
Click to expand...
Props as I learned when working with you, will get you cut. There is only a finite amount of time in the day and betting on sides will consume a large portion of it. Throwing props into the mix for a little extra stress and gravy is not worth it. For me at least, I've never been cut less than $200 on NBA quarter bets, so I'm comfortable staying in that domain.

What I do enjoy, however, is blindsiding the bookies on prop bets. I can be betting on NBA sides all week and still have a virgin player prop history.

Then out of the blue drop $1,000 on Deandre Jordan O15 rebounds. Having that luxury is more helpful to me, than bouncing around to 5 different books getting $25 down on player props each time. Before eventually getting flagged as a recreational bettor.

As far as a capping contest, my vision would be one-month, similar to a revolving balance at Realbettors. Anything longer and I think it would become a drag / time consuming.

Whoever's bets win the most money, wins. Hell, we could even use a legit Realbettors account for auditing purposes.

For payouts, it was more going to be about pride between Gussy and I. If we opened it up to everybody, it would make sense to do a $250 buy-in, winner take all type setup.

 
gussy said:
BTW smarty, Rivers didn’t go under. The 3 receivers I bet did. Also, did u notice that when it was announced Gordon was out the line didn’t move? Breida must be WAY better than Gordon
Click to expand...
When you consider the final outcome, you can definitely argue that it SHOULD have moved the line.

Poor form by the bookies. Not going to say I fully understand the method to their madness, but if I wanted to take money from a bunch of squares, I would probably do my best to not tip them off that Gordon was hurt.

Moving that line to a pick em or -3 might have raised suspicions.

 
Stuart Ullman said:
The exception is not the rule. Plus, without knowing if we're talking passings yards vs receiving yards or completions vs receptions, hard to verify.

Well, hey, great job! I only do the bet $100 to win x because it's much easy for my record keeping. Do you still do the same for plus money? Or do you wager the full unit there?

I'm not going to ask you about your unit size, but if you have a local that let's you bet more than $25 on a prop. You're sitting on a goldmine.

Good job, I couldn't have capped that game better myself.
Click to expand...
I bet the same unless I notate it. The only exception is extreme long shot future type bets. I had a full unit on the Isles at +200 last night. It lost

 
The Ref said:
The new story is Tony isn’t dead.  The US was working on a deal with the Costa Rica government to extradite him.  Tony was tipped off by his bribed freinds in government.  He cut a deal to move to Cuba.   If you read the story his wife paid the ransom $$ to a bank in Cuba who then turned it into bitcoin and paid the kinnappers for her.  The theory is that is his what he’s going to live on.  The newspaper that reported his body was found is a level beneath the national enquirer....

at at least that’s the theory.
Click to expand...
What's this now?

 
I had the over on Thursday night, which I'm putting down as "blind squirrel finds nut." I also parlayed the Cle/TB under with the Min/NYJ over, so it would still appear I am a reliable fade. Carry on. 

 
ChainsawU said:
sloppy seconds Marvin Lewis 8-0 SU and ATS on a normal week (more than 3 days rest) when his opponent faced Belichick in their previous game.
Click to expand...
The entire AFC North is 19-4 SU and ATS in that spot (9-4 SU and 11-2 ATS as the underdog) sdql

There are some seriously jacked up trends with Marvin Lewis and the Bengals in prime time though. Those are soon to follow I'm sure. But this after-Belichick hangover angle is really making me think. I hate the Bengals so much though.

 
Q1 - Cavaliers / Hawks U59, -110

Seems like too many points for both teams. Also like 1H and FG under, but those likely won't hit unless the Q1 goes under.

Worth a shot.

 
What do the Texans, Jaguars, Lions, Dolphins and Colts all have in common, aside from being the first five opponents on the Patriots schedule? All five of those teams were losers the week after playing the Patriots. A Patriots hangover.
Click to expand...
 
lumpy19 said:
Saturday was mostly sides and totals

https://www.awesomescreenshot.com/image/3677440/26bd05eacecef9fe1367caf458f11367

this one is all props

https://www.awesomescreenshot.com/image/3677448/c98a784aaf5fcd5a6b5169cfa2b0d791

mostly props

https://www.awesomescreenshot.com/image/3677454/ef90d94e89b1a78ee98e5933a2fc6e96

I'm in year 10 of props and I would argue it's better now than in 2008 when I really started taking it seriously
Click to expand...
Looks like 2-0 on props today for me

Sides 3-1, totals 1-2; with a side and total pending. I need to start paying more attention to props. I have dabbled but never gotten serious... I know that is blasphemy for the FFAWT.. :bag:

 
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