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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (7 Viewers)

Oppo teams catching more than 4 points from Andy Reid after the 15th game of the season: 15-1 to the under and 15-0 when they score less than 27 sdql

 
unloaded on lsu -4.  Definitely a homer view, but I just don't think LSU can be stopped on offense the way they have played since the Auburn game.  Couple that with a home game in New Orleans and the best player in CFB completely locked in.

 
STARTING FAST The Jets have opened games by scoring on their first possession seven times this season, including five touchdowns and two field goals. That comes after they snapped a skid during which they went 30 consecutive games without getting into the end zone on their opening drive. Their 40 points on opening possessions lead the league over the last nine games.
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NYJ scores first -115

 
Let's not overreact to them thumping Oklahoma which we all thought was coming right?

Clemson and OSU are complete teams and either one could keep up with LSU imo

 
ChainsawU said:
NYJ scores first -115
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Is there any place that tracks what teams do when they win the toss (kick vs. receive)? It’d be interesting to track first team to score bets when you pretty much know who’s getting the ball first before the game starts, like when you have one team that always receives first vs. one that never does.

 
Bucs/Falcons Part II
Since 2016 Dan Quinn 10-3 in same-season rematches:

  • 10-0 when his team was laying the points
  • 9-0 against teams that were less than .700 on the season
  • All three losses came as underdogs to the Saints (who were .714 or better at the time)
  • Falcons averaged 34±8 in the ten wins
  • Arians already 0-2 in this rematch spot with the Bucs so far; his defense allowed 37 and 34 to Panthers/Saints
 
McBokonon said:
Is there any place that tracks what teams do when they win the toss (kick vs. receive)? It’d be interesting to track first team to score bets when you pretty much know who’s getting the ball first before the game starts, like when you have one team that always receives first vs. one that never does.
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Good question sir. I agree if we had something like that we could definitely tear it up on some successful wagering angles.

 
Why are people making such a big deal about Ertz being out??? Goedert HELLO Goedert is the future in Philly anyways. Yet every single analyst has to mention this like it's such a big deal! Am I tripping?

 
ChainsawU said:
Bucs/Falcons Part II
Since 2016 Dan Quinn 10-3 in same-season rematches:

  • 10-0 when his team was laying the points
  • 9-0 against teams that were less than .700 on the season
  • All three losses came as underdogs to the Saints (who were .714 or better at the time)
  • Falcons averaged 34±8 in the ten wins
  • Arians already 0-2 in this rematch spot with the Bucs so far; his defense allowed 37 and 34 to Panthers/Saints
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SO falcons ML?

 
Doug Pederson 15-8 SU career versus NFC East (15-4 SU L19):
Scoring 23 or fewer: 2-8
Scoring 24 or more: 13-0

No wonder he's about to win the division. They've won 15 of their L19 division games. Meanwhile Pat Shurmur has never won 3 in a row with the Giants. As a matter of fact, dude has coached 64 career games and only has one (1) three-game winning streak. He's only won 19 of his 64 career games as head coach. I think the Eagles will be in pretty good shape today.

 
LOCO said:
SO falcons ML?
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Yeah man. That's the only thing I'm excited about in the noon games. The angle makes a lot of sense to me. I'm also thinking +0.5 1H. Remember how the Falcons didn't have any division games until week 10 and then mashed out against Saints/Panthers. Those were the only two times I even thought about the Falcons this year. The division matchup situation. I bought 1H +½ -130 and full game for +102. It's the most straightforward wager I can talk myself into on the noon slate, plus it might actually be entertaining with points

 
From Action Network:  According to Bet Labs (which goes back to 2003), teams that need to win to get into the playoffs (or would need help with a loss) in Week 17 have gone 13-21 against the spread (38.2%) when playing eliminated teams. 

And if you focus solely on favorites laying more than a field goal, the case for fading these “must-win” teams becomes even more glaring at 7-18 ATS (28%)

Teams that fit this category: Dallas, Philly, Raiders, Titans and Steelers - Laying more than a favorite: Dallas and Philly and Titans. Note - Texans are likely resting a bunch including Watson and Hopkins. Seems the easy play is to fade Dallas and Philly ATS.

 
jamil said:
Let's not overreact to them thumping Oklahoma which we all thought was coming right?

Clemson and OSU are complete teams and either one could keep up with LSU imo
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Fields clearly looks limited and Dobbins ankle is a question mark.  If both were 100% healthy I'd agree

 
ChainsawU said:
Yeah man. That's the only thing I'm excited about in the noon games. The angle makes a lot of sense to me. I'm also thinking +0.5 1H. Remember how the Falcons didn't have any division games until week 10 and then mashed out against Saints/Panthers. Those were the only two times I even thought about the Falcons this year. The division matchup situation. I bought 1H +½ -130 and full game for +102. It's the most straightforward wager I can talk myself into on the noon slate, plus it might actually be entertaining with points
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Well we know Jaboo will be throwing that 1st drive INT so i'm watching to see if he can get to 30.  30/30 club of anything is pretty cool.

 
Packers hosted the Lions (+3.5) on MNF in week six. Beat them by one point. Lions covered the spread. Since then opposing teams have gone 9-1 SU and 9-0-1 ATS versus the Lions. Aaron Rodgers is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS versus Matt Patricia's Lions. Lions shut them out in the 1H of their first two meetings, and have outscored the Packers 31-0 in the 1Q of all three games combined. This might be the game that no one saw coming, but it's obvious Patricia kinda has it out for the division rival Packers. In week 17 one year ago the Packers (-7.5) lost to the Lions 31-0 to finish the season. Patricia snuck up and shut them out. And after losing 8 straight games Lions are overdue for a win right now, too. Packers are in the playoffs, trying to secure a bye week, but this might turn out to be the Lions' Super Bowl. This might be the game that screws everyone's moneyline parlays and teasers.

Lions +550
Lions 1Q +3 -110

 
All single unit bets because I hate week 17 betting

Bears -3

Titans -7

Falcons Pick

Redskins +13

Ravens Pick

Jets Pick

Seahawks +3

Broncos -3.5

 
Opposing teams 29-3-2 (.906) ATS against Dan Quinn when they lead at the half. The 1H and full game plays were definitely correlated. <_<

 
Raiders 13-0 to the under in their L13 divisional road games. Offense averaged 13±6 ppg. And it's 30 degrees at Mile High today.

 
ChainsawU said:
Raiders 13-0 to the under in their L13 divisional road games. Offense averaged 13±6 ppg. And it's 30 degrees at Mile High today.
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LOL.   So I took Oak 1st H under 8.5 .   Saw Renfro catch a TD and was pissed and got up, went to garage fridge to reload on drinks.  Still don't know what happened or why they didn't even get a FG.   :banned:

 
do we have any angles on this night game.?  i sort of like wilson/carrol on prime time.  maybe the UNDER, but waiting on the fam.

 
LOCO said:
do we have any angles on this night game.?  i sort of like wilson/carrol on prime time.  maybe the UNDER, but waiting on the fam.
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feel you on that wilson carroll angle, plus Clowney's comments regarding the intensity of this week's practices

@Joe_Fann Jadeveon Clowney added that it feels like the Seahawks are preparing for war. The vibe at practice has matched the magnitude of the stakes on Sunday against the 49ers.
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ChainsawU said:
feel you on that wilson carroll angle, plus Clowney's comments regarding the intensity of this week's practices
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I don't know man.  SF has played well lately beating NO and LAR.    SF shut down Lockett last time.  If they do that and force SEA to run, I think SF will blow them out.  SF is playimg for #1 seed.    SEA has to play next week no matter what.

 
Niners might blow them out...biggest difference this time is they have Kittle.  But I don't think that the Niners should be a td favorite over the Hawks on a neutral field, and that is what this line is saying.  Silly.

I am going to follow Chain's NFC West Week 17 over though.

 
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