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Official Hillary Clinton 2016 thread (8 Viewers)

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It's not just Priebus. Nearly every  Republican I watch on TV says that Trump would have an easier time beating Bernie. Nearly  every conservative columnist writes it. Every Republican I talk to in real life says the same thing. 

OK maybe they are all wrong. Or maybe many of you in this thread, liberals and conservatives alike, are so invested in your dislike of Hillary Clinton that you're not seeing the big picture. 

 
FWIW I think the question comes down to demographics rather than any of the stuff we've been discussing about labels and insult fodder and whatnot.  The question IMO is whether Sanders' strength with blue collar and middle class white people in the rust belt swing states helps more than Clinton's strength with minority voters. The Michigan results tipped the scales in favor of Sanders with me for the time being.  Pretty simple.

 
timschochet said:
It's not just Priebus. Nearly every  Republican I watch on TV says that Trump would have an easier time beating Bernie. Nearly  every conservative columnist writes it. Every Republican I talk to in real life says the same thing. 

OK maybe they are all wrong. Or maybe many of you in this thread, liberals and conservatives alike, are so invested in your dislike of Hillary Clinton that you're not seeing the big picture. 
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And every one of them was also convinced Romney was going to take down Obama in 2012.  And every one of them was also convinced that Jeb Bush would come on strong once primary season started in earnest.

 
Captain Cranks said:
I always thought it was a mistake for Sanders to define himself as a democratic socialist, not because of what that stands for, but because most people hear "socialist" and automatically think he's Marx reincarnate.  
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I would guess over 75% of the voting public doesn't know who Marx is

 
timschochet said:
It's not just Priebus. Nearly every  Republican I watch on TV says that Trump would have an easier time beating Bernie. Nearly  every conservative columnist writes it. Every Republican I talk to in real life says the same thing. 

OK maybe they are all wrong. Or maybe many of you in this thread, liberals and conservatives alike, are so invested in your dislike of Hillary Clinton that you're not seeing the big picture. 
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Yes.  Maybe Republican pundits are wrong about the way the election cycle will go.  Hey, maybe we can test them.  Who did they have getting the Republican nomination a few months ago, despite all polls?

 
Whenever Tim uses the word 'every xxxxx' says something, it is ALWAYS wrong.  He must consider two to be an appropriate sample size before making such a declaration.  

 
pantagrapher said:
The Reagan administration was notorious for ignoring AIDS for years.
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According to Andrea Mitchell, Nancy Reagan pushed her husband hard on this issue and was instrumental in what the Adminstration DID do. Hillary knew Nancy Reagan well, they were good friends, and she was just paying credit to this fact. 

 
If I were cheering for a Democrat who I think would give the GOP the best chance to win, I would be cheering hard for Hillary.  But she is such a corrupt lying POS that should not be allowed within 100 miles of the White House, I hope Bernie beats her. 

 
I'm not a fan of turning soundbites into gotchas. My initial reaction was that it wasn't a horrible statement. Not even technically inaccurate, I would agree. But to praise this specific thing when that administration has a bad reputation on this specific thing—especially among older liberals—was just not a good idea.

 
jon_mx said:
If I were cheering for a Democrat who I think would give the GOP the best chance to win, I would be cheering hard for Hillary.  But she is such a corrupt lying POS that should not be allowed within 100 miles of the White House, I hope Bernie beats her. 
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Not looking good. I hope Bernie can make it happen, but it would probably take an indictment at this point.

 
pantagrapher said:
I'm not a fan of turning soundbites into gotchas. My initial reaction was that it wasn't a horrible statement. Not even technically inaccurate, I would agree. But to praise this specific thing when that administration has a bad reputation on this specific thing—especially among older liberals—was just not a good idea.
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It was strange. Most people are criticizing it. But I did hear Andrea Mitchell say the exact same thing, so maybe she said it because it's true. 

 
Henry Ford said:
Not looking good. I hope Bernie can make it happen, but it would probably take an indictment at this point.
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The math doesn't work for Bernie. He has to win most of the remaining big states by pretty large margins. What's so ironic is that he's in almost the exact same situation that Hillary was in in 2008- win a state like Michigan (or in Hillary's case Pennsylvania, I remember that very well), everybody gets excited, but then the reality sets in. The Democratic nomination goes through the black vote in the south. Whomever they favor is the nominee. 

 
timschochet said:
It was strange. Most people are criticizing it. But I did hear Andrea Mitchell say the exact same thing, so maybe she said it because it's true. 
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Hillary has a constant need to overemphasize the importance of the First Ladyship.

The job is to be dignified, hopefully pretty, represent the country well, have a program which assists (typically) the nation's children in some way, handle the state dinners, manage the White House as a "house," and engage foreign dignitaries with charm.

That's the job.

 
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Lots of things to compliment Nancy Reagan on, but praising her AIDS work seems like something that should be next to saying what great curves she had.  Hopefully this lights a fire under the old guard Democrats who actually have a F'ing clue what was going on in the 80's and weren't playing housewife in Little Rock

 
timschochet said:
The math doesn't work for Bernie. He has to win most of the remaining big states by pretty large margins. What's so ironic is that he's in almost the exact same situation that Hillary was in in 2008- win a state like Michigan (or in Hillary's case Pennsylvania, I remember that very well), everybody gets excited, but then the reality sets in. The Democratic nomination goes through the black vote in the south. Whomever they favor is the nominee. 
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He needs something like 53.6% of the remaining delegates. He's won 9 or the last 10 non southern states. It's doable.  And Clinton is mostly winning in states that will likely go Republican in the general.

 
Willie Neslon said:
He needs something like 53.6% of the remaining delegates. He's won 9 or the last 10 non southern states. It's doable.  And Clinton is mostly winning in states that will likely go Republican in the general.
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He needs about 58% to get to 50/50 at the convention when the superdelegates pledge.

 
Hillary has already tweeted that she "misspoke" when talking about the Reagan's contributions to the AIDS conversation.  Which is a very weird thing to say considering the entire context of her statement. 

 
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
Hillary has already tweeted that she "misspoke" when talking about the Reagan's contributions to the AIDS conversation.  Which is a very weird thing to say considering the entire context of her statement. 
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:lmao: she's a peach... really, honestly question her judgement.  I get that she's book smart but she gets flustered so easily and does so much dumb stuff in the moment that I think she'd be an awful, just an awful crisis president.  And really, thats who we are hiring, any jerk can be President on a good day. 

This lament is separate from her plainly corruptible nature.

 
Henry Ford said:
He needs about 58% to get to 50/50 at the convention when the superdelegates pledge.
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I saw a different number right after the Michigan win. I have to find it. Either way, more people are seeing the race for what it really is.  A genuine guy who cares about people vs. a complete fraud who cares about her political ambitions.  To say the math doesn't work or it's over it being disingenuous.  Her southern state firewall is in the last.

 
  • Sanders currently has 553 or so pledged delegates.
  • He needs 2,026 for the barest possible majority of the 4,051 pledged delegates.
  • There are 2,736 pledged delegates still to be allocated.
  • So Sanders needs 1,473 of those 2,736, or 54 percent, to get there. (actually 53.8%)
 
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Henry Ford said:
He needs about 58% to get to 50/50 at the convention when the superdelegates pledge.
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Superdelegates have never gone against the will of the people.  It would be the height of hyocripcy for Democrats to ignore the primary voters and have the Superdelegates overturn the election.  

 
Willie Neslon said:
  • Sanders currently has 553 or so pledged delegates.
  • He needs 2,026 for the barest possible majority of the 4,051 pledged delegates.
  • There are 2,736 pledged delegates still to be allocated.
  • So Sanders needs 1,473 of those 2,736, or 54 percent, to get there. (actually 53.8%)
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Yeah, but Henry was counting the Superdelegates, who overwhelmingly support Hillary.  

 
I wish people would stop worrying about the Superdelegates.

If Bernie wins the majority of the regular delegates, the Superdelegates will switch over. If they didn't, even I would stop supporting Hillary at that point. 

 
For those who missed it when I posted it before, here's a good breakdown the delegate race that I think is really helpful. It isn't projections, it's essentially mile markers of where Bernie has to be along the way in order to get to a 50/50 delegate split (not counting superdelegates). He's lagging by about 120 delegates thus far.  Because the Dem primaries are all proportional every state gives him an opportunity to make up the gap.  However those mile markers already assume stuff like last week's Michigan results- he actually only gained 2 delegates above the 50/50 target line there.  It's doable but definitely an uphill battle.

 
Willie Neslon said:
  • Sanders currently has 553 or so pledged delegates.
  • He needs 2,026 for the barest possible majority of the 4,051 pledged delegates.
  • There are 2,736 pledged delegates still to be allocated.
  • So Sanders needs 1,473 of those 2,736, or 54 percent, to get there. (actually 53.8%)
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Florida is winner take all, right? So if Hillary wins there, as she is supposed to, that's 246 delegates right there.  That would make it almost impossible.

So Bernie really needs to win Florida to have a decent shot here...

 
timschochet said:
I wish people would stop worrying about the Superdelegates.

If Bernie wins the majority of the regular delegates, the Superdelegates will switch over. If they didn't, even I would stop supporting Hillary at that point. 
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Hillary tried to make the case she had the most votes against Obama, and that did not work for her.  It would be extremely hypocritical for a party such named, but I would not rule it out completely.  

 
Henry Ford said:
Help me out, here.  What exactly has Clinton ever won that makes people so sure that she will beat any of the Republican nominees?  Two elections in New York against complete cakewalk competition? She's underperforming against her poll numbers, slipping worse the longer this campaign goes, getting creamed in debates, and has lower polling numbers agianst every single Republican contender than Sanders has.

What is with this mindset that somehow she's more likely to win the general election?
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She's not, except the Republicans are apparently going to run a clown.  No way she loses to him unless she's indicted.

 
timschochet said:
Florida is winner take all, right? So if Hillary wins there, as she is supposed to, that's 246 delegates right there.  That would make it almost impossible.

So Bernie really needs to win Florida to have a decent shot here...
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I did not think any of the Dem primaries were winner-take-all - but I have not paid close attention to the details.

 
timschochet said:
Florida is winner take all, right? So if Hillary wins there, as she is supposed to, that's 246 delegates right there.  That would make it almost impossible.

So Bernie really needs to win Florida to have a decent shot here...
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When I read your posts I hear the Jim Carrey Ace Ventura talking out the butt voice.

2dgpzsx.jpg


 
pantagrapher said:
I think "socialist" will be one of the nicer things Bernie (or Hillary, for that matter) would be called in a general election. 
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I know it's not your point but your post got me thinking - @squisition why would Bernie being called a Socialist be worse than Hillary being called one - especially if the voters aren't educated on it?

 
timschochet said:
Florida is winner take all, right? So if Hillary wins there, as she is supposed to, that's 246 delegates right there.  That would make it almost impossible.

So Bernie really needs to win Florida to have a decent shot here...
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New rule: if you don't know how delegates are apportioned during the primary, you're not allowed to draw any conclusions about "the math" for delegate counts.

 
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Willie Neslon said:
  • Sanders currently has 553 or so pledged delegates.
  • He needs 2,026 for the barest possible majority of the 4,051 pledged delegates.
  • There are 2,736 pledged delegates still to be allocated.
  • So Sanders needs 1,473 of those 2,736, or 54 percent, to get there. (actually 53.8%)
Click to expand...
Fair enough - I saw something today claiming 50% apportionment of delegates already, but that was clearly wrong.  Thanks.

 
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