*** Official Michael Turner 2007 offseason thread *** (1 Viewer)

[Maurile Tremblay]

Agreed with most of what you wrote but I don't see any way that Turner resigns with the Chargers. Why should he?

It's very doubtful that he'd re-sign with the Chargers. The Chargers value him quite a bit this year because they are getting a $6M player for $2.35M. Great deal for them. But next year the Chargers would have to actually offer him $6M a year or so to match other offers he'll get, and I strongly doubt they'd be willing to pay that much for a backup RB. Moreover, even if they are willing to pay that much and they make an offer similar to the other offers he receives, it's not all about money. Turner wants to start. He'll go to a team where he'll have that opportunity.

 

[brewer]

It's not like Turner is so much more proven than Morency.

I don't think many NFL personnel guys would rank Turner and Morency very close together.FWIW, I personally think Turner is one of the top five runners in the league. (I say "runners" instead of "RBs" because he seems pretty limited as a receiver.)

Really? Top 5 runners in the league? Seriously?I think Turner has much to prove before he is put into that category. There is a good chance that he will become a starting caliber NFL running back, but he certainly hasn't proven it yet. Too small of a sample size to say for sure.

 

[mozzy84]

I swear I have read this same thread about 50 times this offseason, trade him all ready AJ!

 

[T Man]

There would have to be a lot of ground work laid for this to be a draft day trade. Any team that trades for Turner will need to have a long term contract in place. For that reason I think the trade would happen prior to the draft if it is going to happen.

I agree there has to be a lot of groundwork; however, you would think that any team interested in Turner has already talked to Turner's agent (and have talked to SD about what it would take).A team is allowed to talk to Turner already. THey just have to give SD the right of first refusal (and if SD refuses, a 1st and 3rd). So teams typically talk to the agents about the player well before it gets to an offer, and then work out the trade. (For example, Welker).Although it may be wise to trade Turner, I think Turner is a Charger at the beginning of next season.

 

[Trap Play]

I swear I have read this same thread about 50 times this offseason, trade him all ready AJ!

:turnerowner:

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

It's not like Turner is so much more proven than Morency.

I don't think many NFL personnel guys would rank Turner and Morency very close together.FWIW, I personally think Turner is one of the top five runners in the league. (I say "runners" instead of "RBs" because he seems pretty limited as a receiver.)

Really? Top 5 runners in the league? Seriously?

Seriously. I think he's roughly on par with LT and LJ.

I think Turner has much to prove before he is put into that category. There is a good chance that he will become a starting caliber NFL running back, but he certainly hasn't proven it yet. Too small of a sample size to say for sure.

Sufficiency of sample size depends on variance within the population. For example, a running back can very easily get anywhere from -1 yard to 20+ yards on a particular run, so you can't reliably estimate a guy's "true" (i.e., long-term) YPC from a smallish sample of runs. Turner has 157 regular-season NFL carries. That's not tiny, but I agree that it's way smaller than ideal to extrapolate from.But not everything has such a large variance. A player's time in the 40 will generally be within a few hundredths of a second each time that he runs. So if you time a guy running a 4.3 even just once, you wouldn't say that the sample size is too small to conclude that he's really fast.The less variance there is in the thing you're measuring, the smaller sample you need in order to draw conclusions.My opinion that Turner is a great runner isn't really based on his YPC. It's based on the skills I see when I watch him run.He's got very good power and is exceedingly difficult to bring down. That's not the kind of thing where there's a lot of variance -- as if a guy will break four tackles on half his runs and go down with a weak arm tackle on the other half. I am very confident, even after watching Turner carry the ball fewer than 200 times, that he has great power, great balance, and great determination. He consistently gets yards after contact, and that's not a small-sample-size fluke the way his YPC might be.Similarly, I am very impressed with his ability to read and anticipate his blocks and find the hole. Again, I think I've seen enough of it from him to conclude that it's not a fluke.And he has very good speed. He ran a 4.42 at the combine (I think Tomlinson ran a 4.41), and has shown his speed on a number of break-away runs and kickoff returns in the NFL. Not a fluke.So if I were just going by YPC, I'd agree that the sample size is smaller than ideal. But I'm really not going by YPC. I'm going by skills that generally have less run-to-run variance, and can therefore be evaluated pretty reliably, IMO, even with just 157 career regular-season carries. (And he's consistently shown the same skills in the preseason as well.)

 

[kensat30]

I doubt he goes to Buffalo. Remember how long it took them to trade Henry to Tennessee until they got exactly what they wanted? I doubt they would drop an early pick on Turner just to have the chance to offer him a massive salary. Just look at all the losses they've taken this year in FA and trade, 2007 is basically written off already.

 

[BLOX]

Nice I wonder if GB would just part with #16 overall. That might do it.

You sure? Maybe the Pack'll throw in Woodson and Jennings, you know, as sweeteners.

AJ is going to hold out for the best deal possible, thats the beauty of it. They dont have to move Turner at all. There is no pressure to move him. Right now Turner >>> M.Lynch and dont think that the GM's dont know that.

GB is not going into the season with Morency and Harron as their starters. They need to make a move bad.

I don't think you know what you are talking about here. Ted Thomspon is not one to trade picks away period. He values them like gold. If he doesn't get a deal that benefits Green Bay substancially, he won't pull the trigger.

GB is going to do something at RB. They have the biggest need right now, IMO.Whether that includes Turner or not remains to be seen.

Plus I was half fishing,

Maybe they like Morency? You never know.

Thought I'd share this for the Charger fans that think they are going to force GBs hand in this...the cut part is what I thought was interesting about Morency, it was in today's paper.http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=584305

"McCarthy appears more than willing to give returning running back Vernand Morency - one of those 16 first-day draftees - an opportunity to rush for 1,000 yards next season. But his desire is only to be productive and if it takes two or three backs to make it happen, he'll go with that.

Morency, a second-round pick of the Houston Texans in '05 who was traded straight up for Samkon Gado, reported to off-season workouts in peak condition and is taking his status as lead back seriously. But before anyone starts thinking he's ready, Morency has to continue making the adjustment from a lead-draw system to the Packers' zone-blocking scheme."

 

[kensat30]

It's not like Turner is so much more proven than Morency.

I don't think many NFL personnel guys would rank Turner and Morency very close together.FWIW, I personally think Turner is one of the top five runners in the league. (I say "runners" instead of "RBs" because he seems pretty limited as a receiver.)

Really? Top 5 runners in the league? Seriously?

Seriously. I think he's roughly on par with LT and LJ.

I think Turner has much to prove before he is put into that category. There is a good chance that he will become a starting caliber NFL running back, but he certainly hasn't proven it yet. Too small of a sample size to say for sure.

He's got very good power and is exceedingly difficult to bring down. That's not the kind of thing where there's a lot of variance -- as if a guy will break four tackles on half his runs and go down with a weak arm tackle on the other half. I am very confident, even after watching Turner carry the ball fewer than 200 times, that he has great power, great balance, and great determination. He consistently gets yards after contact, and that's not a small-sample-size fluke the way his YPC might be.Similarly, I am very impressed with his ability to read and anticipate his blocks and find the hole. Again, I think I've seen enough of it from him to conclude that it's not a fluke.

Are you confident that these traits would remain constant if Turner got 300+ carries in a season as the lead RB on a bad team? Top5 runner in the league? That's insane IMO. The guy is and has been playing behind THE BEST RB IN THE HISTORY OF THE NFL for his ENTIRE career. That includes 4th quarter mop-up against tired defenses. That includes defenses on their heels that have been getting grinded down by Tomlinson play after play. Sure, Turner is big guy with power and great top end speed, but he is coming into games totally fresh and ready for action and he is never taking the first hit. These are the IDEAL situations for Turner and any backup RB to succeed. Especially now that San Diego is an offensive powerhouse and a leading contender in the AFC. Just look at Lamont Jordan back in 2004 behind Curtis Martin, same thing we're seeing with Turner.Now I'm not saying that Turner will be a bust or that he will even turn out to be simply average. But, imagine Turner does end up in Buffalo and they do decide to give up the pick and the big contract for him. How many times will there be two or three people in the backfield before the guy can build up steam? How many times will he be running fresh against tired defenses in the 4th quarter? Is the guy still quick after breaking 7 or 8 tackles, getting hit 10 or 15 times, and carrying the ball for the 25th time in a game? That's why LJ is so good, because he can do those things. There is no evidence thus far that Turner can actually do those things. Ask yourself one question, did you consider LJ one of the best in the league before 2005? I sincerely doubt it. Is Turner better than Willis Mcgahee? Is Willis Mcgahee a top5 RB? Better answer yes to every single question if you are going to give this guy more money than Frank Gore AND drop a high draft pick for him.Turner's defining moment as a RB is a single carry that he took to the house against Indy that ended their perfect season. Is that really worth all that money and the draft pick(s)? I saw more from Lamont Jordan before he became a starter than Turner has shown thus far. And Jordan turned out to be not worth the money IMO.

 

[jurb26]

I really don't understand a 2 things being said in this thread. 1, on what planet Turner is worth a 1st rounder. 2, in what way SD has the power in this situation when Turner only has 1 year left on his contract and then it's open bid for teams.

 

[massraider]

I saw more from Lamont Jordan before he became a starter than Turner has shown thus far. And Jordan turned out to be not worth the money IMO.

Whoa. Really?Lamont in 4 seasons:262 carries, 1277 yards, 4.87 avg. 9 20+ yard runs.Turner in only 3 years:157 carries, 941 yards, 6.0 avg, 10 20+ yard runs.

 

[yellowdog]

How much does AJ's ability to determine where he goes play into this? Next year, he has no say in it.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

How much does AJ's ability to determine where he goes play into this? Next year, he has no say in it.

thats not true. AJ could franchise him and then trade him.

 

[sho nuff]

Id still do offer this if I were Ted Thompson.

1st and 3rd this year...for Turner and 1st this year.

SD gets a 3rd and moves up to 16th....value of that is right between the 1st and 2nd pick of the 2nd round.

 

[yellowdog]

How much does AJ's ability to determine where he goes play into this? Next year, he has no say in it.

thats not true. AJ could franchise him and then trade him.

Wouldn't that pay him the average of the top 5 RBs? I don't see that happening.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

How much does AJ's ability to determine where he goes play into this? Next year, he has no say in it.

thats not true. AJ could franchise him and then trade him.

Wouldn't that pay him the average of the top 5 RBs? I don't see that happening.

If they kept him, yes. But it's away to control where he goes and keeps the ball in the chargers court for compensation

 

[jurb26]

How much does AJ's ability to determine where he goes play into this? Next year, he has no say in it.

thats not true. AJ could franchise him and then trade him.

What, and pay him top 5 salary?

 

[yellowdog]

How much does AJ's ability to determine where he goes play into this? Next year, he has no say in it.

thats not true. AJ could franchise him and then trade him.

Wouldn't that pay him the average of the top 5 RBs? I don't see that happening.

If they kept him, yes. But it's away to control where he goes and keeps the ball in the chargers court for compensation

Then nobody gives anything in a trade. Brilliant!

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

The guy is and has been playing behind THE BEST RB IN THE HISTORY OF THE NFL for his ENTIRE career.

Kind of like Larry Johnson did. That's the only reason he isn't a starter.

How many times will he be running fresh against tired defenses in the 4th quarter?

Here are his career averages by half:First half carries: 6.1 ypcSecond half carries: 5.9 ypcIt doesn't look like he's just a product of playing against worn-down defenses. Also, he breaks as many tackles as a starter in the preseason as he does as a backup in the regular season.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

How much does AJ's ability to determine where he goes play into this? Next year, he has no say in it.

thats not true. AJ could franchise him and then trade him.

Wouldn't that pay him the average of the top 5 RBs? I don't see that happening.

If they kept him, yes. But it's away to control where he goes and keeps the ball in the chargers court for compensation

Then nobody gives anything in a trade. Brilliant!

they did it with Brees?? Just saying Turner might not go anywhere next year either, if AJ wants to control what happens. Not saying its a good move either, just saying

 

[Obie Wan]

It's not like Turner is so much more proven than Morency.

I don't think many NFL personnel guys would rank Turner and Morency very close together.FWIW, I personally think Turner is one of the top five runners in the league. (I say "runners" instead of "RBs" because he seems pretty limited as a receiver.)

AD/Rudi/Lewis couldn't catch a bar of soap, on a rope, around their neck. But they're still RBs. (and yes I know AD wasn't called on to catch the ball, save the replies)I don't see the need to split up runners and running backs. Turner is a RB. So I'd guess total package RB, you'd rank Turner 8-12 range, drop him down a bit for his lack of hands. Though I'm not sure how much it's really hurts Rudi. If they guy can run, they'll run him. The NFL is moving away from the 3 down, 400-450 touch guy. Being able to bring in a 3rd down back, share the load, seems to be getting far more popular. So I don't see that being overly negative for Turner. If the guy is an elite top 5 runner, he's a top 10 RB regardless.

but can he block, pick up blitzes and run patterns?Not sure if he can anything other than run straight ahead.He wants to be paid like a feature back, so the other things are important- especailly a team like Buffalo who needs a pass catcher at RB. If Turner is not the complete package, Bills would be better off drafting a one dimensional player or a project and using a RBBC until next years when the RB quality will be higher.

 

[yellowdog]

How much does AJ's ability to determine where he goes play into this? Next year, he has no say in it.

thats not true. AJ could franchise him and then trade him.

Wouldn't that pay him the average of the top 5 RBs? I don't see that happening.

If they kept him, yes. But it's away to control where he goes and keeps the ball in the chargers court for compensation

Then nobody gives anything in a trade. Brilliant! :IBTL:

they did it with Brees?? Just saying Turner might not go anywhere next year either, if AJ wants to control what happens. Not saying its a good move either, just saying

They received a 3rd round comp pick for Brees because they lost him to free agency. They can't franchise him and gaurantee him top five money and expect someone to trade for him. If they franchise him, they are stuck with his salary. That would allow AJ to control where he goes, nowhere but to the bank.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

How much does AJ's ability to determine where he goes play into this? Next year, he has no say in it.

thats not true. AJ could franchise him and then trade him.

Wouldn't that pay him the average of the top 5 RBs? I don't see that happening.

If they kept him, yes. But it's away to control where he goes and keeps the ball in the chargers court for compensation

Then nobody gives anything in a trade. Brilliant! :IBTL:

they did it with Brees?? Just saying Turner might not go anywhere next year either, if AJ wants to control what happens. Not saying its a good move either, just saying

They received a 3rd round comp pick for Brees because they lost him to free agency. They can't franchise him and gaurantee him top five money and expect someone to trade for him. If they franchise him, they are stuck with his salary. That would allow AJ to control where he goes, nowhere but to the bank.

they francshied Drew the year before last. Paid him 10 mill.You can franchise someone and trade them. Ala Lance Briggs. Just cause you franchise someone doesnt mean you sign them.

 

[Aaronstory]

How much does AJ's ability to determine where he goes play into this? Next year, he has no say in it.

thats not true. AJ could franchise him and then trade him.

Wouldn't that pay him the average of the top 5 RBs? I don't see that happening.

If they kept him, yes. But it's away to control where he goes and keeps the ball in the chargers court for compensation

Then nobody gives anything in a trade. Brilliant! :IBTL:

they did it with Brees?? Just saying Turner might not go anywhere next year either, if AJ wants to control what happens. Not saying its a good move either, just saying

They received a 3rd round comp pick for Brees because they lost him to free agency. They can't franchise him and gaurantee him top five money and expect someone to trade for him. If they franchise him, they are stuck with his salary. That would allow AJ to control where he goes, nowhere but to the bank.

Why not? Worked for Atlanta...

 

[On The Rocks]

What are the rules for other teams to negotiate with Turner and his agent?

I don't think any team would make this trade without having something long term negotiated first for obvious reasons.

So....in order to keep their cards close to the vest, they would want to be able to negotiate with the agent without letting the Chargers know, because that would give a clue as to their seriousness.

The more serious they are, the more the Chargers try to get for the player. The less serious the negotiation the less the Chargers think they can possibly get for Turner.

Can a team negotiate with the players agent without notifying the Chargers or without making them aware of the terms negotiated? Or would that be considered tampering?

 

[yellowdog]

How much does AJ's ability to determine where he goes play into this? Next year, he has no say in it.

thats not true. AJ could franchise him and then trade him.

Wouldn't that pay him the average of the top 5 RBs? I don't see that happening.

If they kept him, yes. But it's away to control where he goes and keeps the ball in the chargers court for compensation

Then nobody gives anything in a trade. Brilliant! :IBTL:

they did it with Brees?? Just saying Turner might not go anywhere next year either, if AJ wants to control what happens. Not saying its a good move either, just saying

They received a 3rd round comp pick for Brees because they lost him to free agency. They can't franchise him and gaurantee him top five money and expect someone to trade for him. If they franchise him, they are stuck with his salary. That would allow AJ to control where he goes, nowhere but to the bank.

they francshied Drew the year before last. Paid him 10 mill.You can franchise someone and trade them. Ala Lance Briggs. Just cause you franchise someone doesnt mean you sign them.

It's one thing to franchise your starting QB when you want to keep him. Lance Briggs wants traded to make more money than the franchise tag. If they franchise Turner, he jumps to sign the contract and he goes nowhere.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

That said, AJ Smith seems too smart to let him for walk for nothing . . .

He wouldn't be walking for nothing. He'd be playing a whole season first, and then he'd bring in a compensatory pick after he leaves.According to the Thaler and Massey paper that Doug Drinen has been discussing recently on his blog, a mid first-round draft pick is worth a "surplus value" (i.e., the true value of a drafted player's performance based on what a free agent of his skill level would make, minus what the drafted player is actually paid) of somewhere around $650,000 per year. For a first-round draft pick who signs a five-year contract, his expected surplus value is about $3.25M, total, over the five years he is under contract.

Personally, I think Thaler and Massey underestimate the surplus value of draft picks, especially at the top of the draft. But if we take their estimates as being roughly correct, you can see why the Chargers should be in no hurry to trade Turner, even for a first-round pick.

Turner would probably make about $6M this year on the open market, IMO. The Chargers have him for $2.35M. That's a surplus value of $3.65M, and they realize it all in 2007 so it doesn't have to be discounted.

So using Thaler and Massey's numbers, keeping Turner for a year at $2.35M, just by itself (without even factoring in a compensatory pick), may be worth more than a first-round pick in this year's draft.

That's not to say that I agree with that conclusion -- but I do think it correctly emphasizes that having Turner's services for this season is not "nothing."

 

[Harry Beanbag]

I really don't understand a 2 things being said in this thread. 1, on what planet Turner is worth a 1st rounder. 2, in what way SD has the power in this situation when Turner only has 1 year left on his contract and then it's open bid for teams.

By making a trade now you can get the player on your team easier than competing with the other 31 teams who are trying to sign him. I am sure the asking price as an UFA next year will be a lot higher than some teams are willing to part with. By making a trade now and working a long term deal you do not have to compete with the other teams in the league with low salary caps that can overpay for a guy.

 

[yellowdog]

How much does AJ's ability to determine where he goes play into this? Next year, he has no say in it.

thats not true. AJ could franchise him and then trade him.

Wouldn't that pay him the average of the top 5 RBs? I don't see that happening.

If they kept him, yes. But it's away to control where he goes and keeps the ball in the chargers court for compensation

Then nobody gives anything in a trade. Brilliant!

they did it with Brees?? Just saying Turner might not go anywhere next year either, if AJ wants to control what happens. Not saying its a good move either, just saying

They received a 3rd round comp pick for Brees because they lost him to free agency. They can't franchise him and gaurantee him top five money and expect someone to trade for him. If they franchise him, they are stuck with his salary. That would allow AJ to control where he goes, nowhere but to the bank.

Why not? Worked for Atlanta...

Schaub wasn't franchised. He was given the same tender Turner currently has.

 

[Table]

Turner is going to the Titans because coach fisher said they have a "plan".

 

[tex]

Was just listening to Jim Miller and schein on Sirius. They brought up that Buffalo is very interested in Turner and that if they offered their 2nd and Baltimore's 3rd this year, that it would be a very good deal for both teams and they thought A.J. Smith would be very receptive to that deal. San Diego has got to deal him while they can still get something for him.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Just cause you franchise someone doesnt mean you sign them.

You can't trade someone without signing him first. Once Turner signs the offer under the franchise tag, he'd be guaranteed top five RB money for the next season. Will another team trade for him with that guarantee in place?

 

[Aaronstory]

Was just listening to Jim Miller and schein on Sirius. They brought up that Buffalo is very interested in Turner and that if they offered their 2nd and Baltimore's 3rd this year, that it would be a very good deal for both teams and they thought A.J. Smith would be very receptive to that deal. San Diego has got to deal him while they can still get something for him.

And then Peterson drops to Green Bay. Sounds good to me.

 

[zamboni]

Was just listening to Jim Miller and schein on Sirius. They brought up that Buffalo is very interested in Turner and that if they offered their 2nd and Baltimore's 3rd this year, that it would be a very good deal for both teams and they thought A.J. Smith would be very receptive to that deal. San Diego has got to deal him while they can still get something for him.

I'm not buying it, but how credible are these guys?

 

[yellowdog]

Was just listening to Jim Miller and schein on Sirius. They brought up that Buffalo is very interested in Turner and that if they offered their 2nd and Baltimore's 3rd this year, that it would be a very good deal for both teams and they thought A.J. Smith would be very receptive to that deal. San Diego has got to deal him while they can still get something for him.

I'm not buying it, but how credible are these guys?

It was pure speculation on their part. Shein threw it out there as an idea. Miller agreed that it might be a good deal. There was no evidence that such a deal has ever been discussed.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Can a team negotiate with the players agent without notifying the Chargers or without making them aware of the terms negotiated?

I'm pretty sure they can. Turner is a free agent. Teams are free to negotiate with him and sign him to an offer sheet. They are also free to negotiate with him and then decide not to sign him to an offer sheet. I don't think they have to notify the Chargers that negotiations are taking place, but I'm not 100% about that.

 

[fsufan]

Was just listening to Jim Miller and schein on Sirius. They brought up that Buffalo is very interested in Turner and that if they offered their 2nd and Baltimore's 3rd this year, that it would be a very good deal for both teams and they thought A.J. Smith would be very receptive to that deal. San Diego has got to deal him while they can still get something for him.

And then Peterson drops to Green Bay. Sounds good to me.

why wouldn't the Browns take AP at #3

 

[Banger]

That said, AJ Smith seems too smart to let him for walk for nothing . . .

He wouldn't be walking for nothing. He'd be playing a whole season first, and then he'd bring in a compensatory pick after he leaves.According to the Thaler and Massey paper that Doug Drinen has been discussing recently on his blog, a mid first-round draft pick is worth a "surplus value" (i.e., the true value of a drafted player's performance based on what a free agent of his skill level would make, minus what the drafted player is actually paid) of somewhere around $650,000 per year. For a first-round draft pick who signs a five-year contract, his expected surplus value is about $3.25M, total, over the five years he is under contract.

Personally, I think Thaler and Massey underestimate the surplus value of draft picks, especially at the top of the draft. But if we take their estimates as being roughly correct, you can see why the Chargers should be in no hurry to trade Turner, even for a first-round pick.

Turner would probably make about $6M this year on the open market, IMO. The Chargers have him for $2.35M. That's a surplus value of $3.65M, and they realize it all in 2007 so it doesn't have to be discounted.

So using Thaler and Massey's numbers, keeping Turner for a year at $2.35M, just by itself (without even factoring in a compensatory pick), may be worth more than a first-round pick in this year's draft.

That's not to say that I agree with that conclusion -- but I do think it correctly emphasizes that having Turner's services for this season is not "nothing."

MT- Agree with you most of the time re:Charger info/opinions but I think the $6 mill price tag is too high. I don't doubt his ability at all but I don't think any team is going to give him McGahee, Gore, SA, LT, etc. type money given his limited albeith excellent career. I'd guess it'd be in the $4-$4.5 mill range. More than Chester Taylor money and less than the proven elite backs. If he hits free agency he'd probably get closer to $5 mill/year. Just my opinion.

 

[Aaronstory]

Was just listening to Jim Miller and schein on Sirius. They brought up that Buffalo is very interested in Turner and that if they offered their 2nd and Baltimore's 3rd this year, that it would be a very good deal for both teams and they thought A.J. Smith would be very receptive to that deal. San Diego has got to deal him while they can still get something for him.

And then Peterson drops to Green Bay. Sounds good to me.

why wouldn't the Browns take AP at #3

They might. They may also take Quinn or Russel or Thomas or....

 

[stbugs]

That said, AJ Smith seems too smart to let him for walk for nothing . . .

He wouldn't be walking for nothing. He'd be playing a whole season first, and then he'd bring in a compensatory pick after he leaves.According to the Thaler and Massey paper that Doug Drinen has been discussing recently on his blog, a mid first-round draft pick is worth a "surplus value" (i.e., the true value of a drafted player's performance based on what a free agent of his skill level would make, minus what the drafted player is actually paid) of somewhere around $650,000 per year. For a first-round draft pick who signs a five-year contract, his expected surplus value is about $3.25M, total, over the five years he is under contract.

Personally, I think Thaler and Massey underestimate the surplus value of draft picks, especially at the top of the draft. But if we take their estimates as being roughly correct, you can see why the Chargers should be in no hurry to trade Turner, even for a first-round pick.

Turner would probably make about $6M this year on the open market, IMO. The Chargers have him for $2.35M. That's a surplus value of $3.65M, and they realize it all in 2007 so it doesn't have to be discounted.

So using Thaler and Massey's numbers, keeping Turner for a year at $2.35M, just by itself (without even factoring in a compensatory pick), may be worth more than a first-round pick in this year's draft.

That's not to say that I agree with that conclusion -- but I do think it correctly emphasizes that having Turner's services for this season is not "nothing."

Sorry, not sure how you can say Turner's value to SD as a backup RB would be 6M. Sure, that might be his open market value, but SD could never realize the full value unless LT was hurt for the whole season.Most, not all, 1st round picks are usually guys that teams expect to be starters or in some cases starters 1 or 2 years down the road. SD hopes that Turner plays sparingly and if he plays alot, it just means that they are paying LT a ton to sit on the bench.

I guess what I am trying to say is that I think your logic is flawed because Turner's 2007 value in SD is not equal to Turner's 2007 value as a starter in Buffalo or GB. If Marshawn Lynch is drafted by Buffalo or GB in the mid first, he will be the starter unless he is awful and his value would be >>>>>>>> Turner as a backup in SD.

Let's just put it this way, if they could have a 1st/2nd round pick at any position they want (i.e. could be the starter) for 2007 versus another 80 carries by Turner, then I would say they didn't get the best value for 2007, regardless of open market values.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I guess what I am trying to say is that I think your logic is flawed because Turner's 2007 value in SD is not equal to Turner's 2007 value as a starter in Buffalo or GB.

This is quite true. He's worth substantially less to San Diego than whatever his fair market value is. (Which is why the Chargers will not be able to outbid other teams for him in 2008.)But he's still worth something to San Diego this year. So it's not the case that the Chargers would be getting "nothing" by keeping him for a year. They'd be getting a great one-year insurance policy on LT's health.

If a trade can be worked out, great. But if a trade can't be worked out, that's fine too from the Chargers' perspective. Keeping turner around for another year is a good thing in itself, and if LT gets hurt it could be a very good thing.

 

[switz]

but can he block, pick up blitzes and run patterns?Not sure if he can anything other than run straight ahead.He wants to be paid like a feature back, so the other things are important- especailly a team like Buffalo who needs a pass catcher at RB. If Turner is not the complete package, Bills would be better off drafting a one dimensional player or a project and using a RBBC until next years when the RB quality will be higher.

Watch film... he can do all the things you ask about...

 

[EBF]

I guess what I am trying to say is that I think your logic is flawed because Turner's 2007 value in SD is not equal to Turner's 2007 value as a starter in Buffalo or GB.

This is quite true. He's worth substantially less to San Diego than whatever his fair market value is. (Which is why the Chargers will not be able to outbid other teams for him in 2008.)But he's still worth something to San Diego this year. So it's not the case that the Chargers would be getting "nothing" by keeping him for a year. They'd be getting a great one-year insurance policy on LT's health.

If a trade can be worked out, great. But if a trade can't be worked out, that's fine too from the Chargers' perspective. Keeping turner around for another year is a good thing in itself, and if LT gets hurt it could be a very good thing.

The Chargers have been drafting pretty well lately. If I'm a team that knows how to use its picks, I'd rather have a shot at a long-term starter (an early draft pick) than a backup RB who's going to be on the field 5-15% of the team's total snaps. And while it's true that Turner provides nice insurance in the event of an injury, I'm of the thinking that backup RBs are essentially a dime a dozen. It wouldn't take a great effort to find someone who could step into the lineup and give you decent work if necessary.

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm of the thinking that backup RBs are essentially a dime a dozen. It wouldn't take a great effort to find someone who could step into the lineup and give you decent work if necessary.

Yes, backup RBs are a dime a dozen, but MT isn't, he's special. Yes, you might be able to get decent work if necessary, but it might not be the same. Hell, it won't be the same IMO.

 

[EBF]

I'm of the thinking that backup RBs are essentially a dime a dozen. It wouldn't take a great effort to find someone who could step into the lineup and give you decent work if necessary.

Yes, backup RBs are a dime a dozen, but MT isn't, he's special. Yes, you might be able to get decent work if necessary, but it might not be the same. Hell, it won't be the same IMO.

He's a good backup, but he's still just a backup. The Chargers would be a better team next year with a journeyman as their #2 back and an extra first day draft pick contributing elsewhere on the field. San Diego should dump Turner for the same reason Atlanta dumped Schaub. It's the smart thing to do.With Turner in the fold, the best case scenario is that he makes significant contributions for 16-18 games. But with an extra draft pick, they could land a long-term starter like Lofa Tatupu, Kirk Morrison, Lance Briggs, Bernard Berrian, Chris Henry, Frank Gore, Greg Jennings, and Devin Hester (just a few recent standout players drafted in rounds 2-3). 3-5 years vs. 1 year. If I trust my scouting department to identify a good player, I'll take those odds.

 

[cstu]

I'm of the thinking that backup RBs are essentially a dime a dozen. It wouldn't take a great effort to find someone who could step into the lineup and give you decent work if necessary.

Yes, backup RBs are a dime a dozen, but MT isn't, he's special. Yes, you might be able to get decent work if necessary, but it might not be the same. Hell, it won't be the same IMO.

He's a good backup, but he's still just a backup. The Chargers would be a better team next year with a journeyman as their #2 back and an extra first day draft pick contributing elsewhere on the field. San Diego should dump Turner for the same reason Atlanta dumped Schaub. It's the smart thing to do.

With Turner in the fold, the best case scenario is that he makes significant contributions for 16-18 games. But with an extra draft pick, they could land a long-term starter like Lofa Tatupu, Kirk Morrison, Lance Briggs, Bernard Berrian, Chris Henry, Frank Gore, Greg Jennings, and Devin Hester (just a few recent standout players drafted in rounds 2-3).

3-5 years vs. 1 year. If I trust my scouting department to identify a good player, I'll take those odds.

The bold parts I disagree with. How many 2nd and 3rd round picks end up not even in the NFL after a few years? I know the Chargers have done great the past few years with those picks, but there's no guarantee they get someone who even stays on the team. Actually, the best scenario is that Turner helps the Chargers win a SB this year. That alone would make up for a 2nd round pick they missed out on. If they trade Turner and LT gets nicked up, there's the season down the tubes.

IMO, this is different from the Schaub situation since the Falcons aren't on the verge of winning a SB. Backup RB is more important than backup QB since another RB is needed to play on a regular basis throughout the season.

 

[EBF]

San Diego's most recent 2nd and 3rd round picks:

Marcus McNeill *

Charlie Whitehurst

Vincent Jackson *

Igor Olshansky *

Nate Kaeding *

Nick Hardwick *

Drayton Florence

Terrance Kiel

Courtney Van Buren

Those aren't all hits, but I count five long-term starters (denoted by *). Kiel started some games and Florence may have started for a year or two (at the very least, I know there was a time when he got some decent PT).

Out of nine total picks, San Diego landed five starters for a hit rate of 55.5%.

I can't see how anyone could look at these figures and say San Diego is better off with one year of Turner than a 50% chance at several seasons from a guy like Olshansky, McNeill, or Hardwick.

 

[Otis]

 

[Riffraff]

IMO, It'll be real funny if Turner does get traded and it's not to the teams most are praying for.

 

[LBH]

Teams like GB and Buffalo may wait until draft day to see what the Browns do before offering anything substantial.