*** Official Michael Turner 2007 offseason thread *** (1 Viewer)

[msommer]

If Smith is really calculating the possible compensatory pick into his trade value then he's an idiot.

IMO, if he's not taking everything into account then he's making a mistake.

He would have to assume that some team would pay Turner as a top 5 FA and that he's not going to sign any big name FAs himself to even get a 3rd round compensatory.

It's very likely that Turner will sign a big contract and that the Chargers won't bring in any fancy free agents.

Going by the draft value chart . . .

IMO, if Smith is going by the draft value chart, then he's making a mistake.

I don't think for a second that AJ Smith really believes that the Chargers could win a Super Bowl if LT got hurt.

I very strongly believe that he believes this.

If Smith doesn't trade Turner and passes up a 2nd round pick, what he's really saying is that he's putting all of his eggs in the 2007 basket. If they don't win the Super Bowl in 2007 then he doesn't think that they can win it with this team.

What he's saying if he doesn't trade Turner for a second, is that Turner in 2007 plus a fourth in 2009 is worth more than a second in 2007. And I'd agree with him unless it's a very high second.

Also no one stops them from using a second or third this year to get a RB to back up LT from 2008 - say Pittman, Irons, Bush, Jackson etc.

 

[yortstop]

Food for thought....We continue to over value back-ups. Jordan and CT come to mind and while they had fair value right off the bat they wont amount to anything but where they started. Back-up's!!!! While over looking Turners stats I noticed he pretty much beat up on Indy, KC and Oaklands run defense's. His most impressive stats come in back to back games against Baltimore/Pittsburgh last year. I may be missing something and would more than welcome someone to correct me of why he is worth the current attention. This is a quetion to what is his real value in a Fantasy aspect rather than to any said team value. As of now most are saying he is as good as the #4 rookie pick possibly the #3.

What say you?

 

[bumpman]

Food for thought....We continue to over value back-ups. Jordan and CT come to mind and while they had fair value right off the bat they wont amount to anything but where they started. Back-up's!!!! While over looking Turners stats I noticed he pretty much beat up on Indy, KC and Oaklands run defense's. His most impressive stats come in back to back games against Baltimore/Pittsburgh last year. I may be missing something and would more than welcome someone to correct me of why he is worth the current attention. This is a quetion to what is his real value in a Fantasy aspect rather than to any said team value. As of now most are saying he is as good as the #4 rookie pick possibly the #3.What say you?

pull the trigger if you are the buyer.

 

[mozzy84]

Turner-to-Bills trade unlikely before draft

Written by: Chris Brown ¦ 4/18/2007

Source: www.buffalobills.com

The Bills have made little secret about their interest in San Diego restricted free agent running back Michael Turner, but seeing a trade consummated by the two clubs prior to the draft appears unlikely according to Buffalo GM Marv Levy.

"There's nothing new to report right now," said Levy Wednesday. "There are so many complexities to the deal that if it's done I've got to tell you it'd be a surprise."

Levy is no doubt referring to the fact that not only would the Bills and Chargers have to agree on compensation to orchestrate the trade of Turner, but Buffalo would also presumably need to have a long term contract agreement in place with Turner's agent for a trade to be completed.

When asked if the Bills would be willing to surrender their first round pick in this year's draft for Turner, Levy chose not to comment.

"We wouldn't disclose what our strategy would be or what would happen with it," said Levy. "It's more complex than what we would offer right now. There are so many factors in it that I'd prefer not to talk about all of them. Let me put it that way."

http://www.buffalobills.com

 

[ukshane]

Food for thought....We continue to over value back-ups. Jordan and CT come to mind and while they had fair value right off the bat they wont amount to anything but where they started. Back-up's!!!! While over looking Turners stats I noticed he pretty much beat up on Indy, KC and Oaklands run defense's. His most impressive stats come in back to back games against Baltimore/Pittsburgh last year. I may be missing something and would more than welcome someone to correct me of why he is worth the current attention. This is a quetion to what is his real value in a Fantasy aspect rather than to any said team value. As of now most are saying he is as good as the #4 rookie pick possibly the #3.What say you?

Wasn't Priest a back-up who exploded when he was given a change of scenery and a starting gig?

 

[tommyGunZ]

Turner-to-Bills trade unlikely before draft

Written by: Chris Brown ¦ 4/18/2007

Source: www.buffalobills.com

The Bills have made little secret about their interest in San Diego restricted free agent running back Michael Turner, but seeing a trade consummated by the two clubs prior to the draft appears unlikely according to Buffalo GM Marv Levy.

"There's nothing new to report right now," said Levy Wednesday. "There are so many complexities to the deal that if it's done I've got to tell you it'd be a surprise."

Levy is no doubt referring to the fact that not only would the Bills and Chargers have to agree on compensation to orchestrate the trade of Turner, but Buffalo would also presumably need to have a long term contract agreement in place with Turner's agent for a trade to be completed.

When asked if the Bills would be willing to surrender their first round pick in this year's draft for Turner, Levy chose not to comment.

"We wouldn't disclose what our strategy would be or what would happen with it," said Levy. "It's more complex than what we would offer right now. There are so many factors in it that I'd prefer not to talk about all of them. Let me put it that way."

http://www.buffalobills.com

As a Charger fan I'm probably reading too much into the bolded comment, but this article doesn't sway my optimism that something is in the works.

 

[cowboy homer]

Food for thought....We continue to over value back-ups. Jordan and CT come to mind and while they had fair value right off the bat they wont amount to anything but where they started. Back-up's!!!! While over looking Turners stats I noticed he pretty much beat up on Indy, KC and Oaklands run defense's. His most impressive stats come in back to back games against Baltimore/Pittsburgh last year. I may be missing something and would more than welcome someone to correct me of why he is worth the current attention. This is a quetion to what is his real value in a Fantasy aspect rather than to any said team value. As of now most are saying he is as good as the #4 rookie pick possibly the #3.What say you?

I say Larry Johnson, Priest Holmes, Frank Gore the list goes on and on.

 

[yellowdog]

Food for thought....We continue to over value back-ups. Jordan and CT come to mind and while they had fair value right off the bat they wont amount to anything but where they started. Back-up's!!!! While over looking Turners stats I noticed he pretty much beat up on Indy, KC and Oaklands run defense's. His most impressive stats come in back to back games against Baltimore/Pittsburgh last year. I may be missing something and would more than welcome someone to correct me of why he is worth the current attention. This is a quetion to what is his real value in a Fantasy aspect rather than to any said team value. As of now most are saying he is as good as the #4 rookie pick possibly the #3.What say you?

Who wouldn't be a backup to LT?

 

[IvanKaramazov]

When asked if the Bills would be willing to surrender their first round pick in this year's draft for Turner, Levy chose not to comment."We wouldn't disclose what our strategy would be or what would happen with it," said Levy. "It's more complex than what we would offer right now. There are so many factors in it that I'd prefer not to talk about all of them. Let me put it that way."

Translation:

We want to see if Patrick Willis or Adrian Peterson are available at #12. If those guys are off the board, then we'll talk.

 

[zamboni]

When asked if the Bills would be willing to surrender their first round pick in this year's draft for Turner, Levy chose not to comment."We wouldn't disclose what our strategy would be or what would happen with it," said Levy. "It's more complex than what we would offer right now. There are so many factors in it that I'd prefer not to talk about all of them. Let me put it that way."

Translation:

We want to see if Patrick Willis or Adrian Peterson are available at #12. If those guys are off the board, then we'll talk.

I doubt a trade would be done on draft day unless the long-term contract parameters are clearly set. IMO, if a trade doesn't happen by the draft, Turner stays a Charger.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I doubt a trade would be done on draft day unless the long-term contract parameters are clearly set.

Maybe they're already set. Just because the Bills (et al.) haven't agree to terms with the Chargers doesn't mean they haven't agreed to terms with Turner.

 

[noneother]

I doubt a trade would be done on draft day unless the long-term contract parameters are clearly set.

Maybe they're already set. Just because the Bills (et al.) haven't agree to terms with the Chargers doesn't mean they haven't agreed to terms with Turner.

i would also believe the chargers have multiple teams lined up... depending on how the draft goes, if the rookie RBs don't fall a way a few teams want.. the very shrewd charger front office, may pull a trigger, or hardball a team to get Turner, and allow the chargers to move up for very little loss

 

[BoltBacker]

"Firing" Marty, letting go Donnie Edwards to the Chiefs, and losing Wade Phillips may not come back to haunt them if they win, but would it be really be that surprising to see a new regime if they regress in the next two years?

I think it really depends on how you measure success. When Marty took over regular season wins and division titles were considered success. A big leap forward. I'm not sure that's the case now. I think the measure of success for the Chargers has changed to playoff victories at this point. Would it be that surprising to see a new regime get less than zero playoff victories the next two years? I'd be surprised. It's possible they equal zero playoff victories but I doubt they do worse than zero.

 

[yortstop]

Food for thought....We continue to over value back-ups. Jordan and CT come to mind and while they had fair value right off the bat they wont amount to anything but where they started. Back-up's!!!! While over looking Turners stats I noticed he pretty much beat up on Indy, KC and Oaklands run defense's. His most impressive stats come in back to back games against Baltimore/Pittsburgh last year. I may be missing something and would more than welcome someone to correct me of why he is worth the current attention. This is a quetion to what is his real value in a Fantasy aspect rather than to any said team value. As of now most are saying he is as good as the #4 rookie pick possibly the #3.What say you?

I say Larry Johnson, Priest Holmes, Frank Gore the list goes on and on.

Priest was a starter in year two for 13 games so not sure he was a legit backup when delt. Gore was drafted with starting potential due to lack of competion with no doubt out preforming expectations. LJ came with big time expections and had legit games before becoming the starter and not just mop-up duty. I'm not trying to bash the kid but just wondering where his true value might lie. Is he somwhere inbetween the high and low or are we talking the next LJ/Priest type player?

 

[Fodasme69]

I know I know John Clayton but:

Turner staying put?

<Apr. 19> The Turner deal is unofficially dead, reports John Clayton. Bills general manager Marv Levy said Thursday he doubts a trade can happen.

The Titans continue to stay in touch with the Chargers, but San Diego isn't going to deal Turner without getting a first-round pick in return. The Chargers expect to get draft-day calls about Turner, but they have moved on from the situation.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

No way the Bills should give up a 1st for Turner. Sorry.

 

[RD1967]

No way the Bills should give up a 1st for Turner. Sorry.

All right what should the Bills take with the first pick pick that will help them more than Turner? Not being a wise ###, just asking the question.

 

[ptsteelers]

No way the Bills should give up a 1st for Turner. Sorry.

All right what should the Bills take with the first pick pick that will help them more than Turner? Not being a wise ###, just asking the question.

Oh, come on ... admit it ... you are being a little bit of a wise ###. (Not that I disagree)

 

[switz]

Food for thought....We continue to over value back-ups. Jordan and CT come to mind and while they had fair value right off the bat they wont amount to anything but where they started. Back-up's!!!! While over looking Turners stats I noticed he pretty much beat up on Indy, KC and Oaklands run defense's. His most impressive stats come in back to back games against Baltimore/Pittsburgh last year. I may be missing something and would more than welcome someone to correct me of why he is worth the current attention. This is a quetion to what is his real value in a Fantasy aspect rather than to any said team value. As of now most are saying he is as good as the #4 rookie pick possibly the #3.What say you?

I say Larry Johnson, Priest Holmes, Frank Gore the list goes on and on.

Priest was a starter in year two for 13 games so not sure he was a legit backup when delt. Gore was drafted with starting potential due to lack of competion with no doubt out preforming expectations. LJ came with big time expections and had legit games before becoming the starter and not just mop-up duty. I'm not trying to bash the kid but just wondering where his true value might lie. Is he somwhere inbetween the high and low or are we talking the next LJ/Priest type player?

Turner could have started for almost any other team, but the Chargers drafted him and no, he's not as good as LT. Is he Gore/LJ good? Yes, easily.

 

[RazorsEdge]

Who wouldn't be a backup to LT?

I'll be LT's backup for only 1.2 mil.

Don't get hurt LT...don't get hurt.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Translation:

Marv Levy said Thursday "we want Michael Turner, but since we can draft Marshawn Lynch with our first round pick there's no reason for us to give it up. We know San Diego has no leverage here, so we can play the waiting game if they want to."

The Titans continue to stay in touch with the Chargers, but San Diego isn't going to deal Turner without getting a first round pick in return until they absolutely have to on draft day. The Chargers expect to get draft-day calls about Turner, but would like you to believe that they could take or leave a deal for Turner and so are telling their unofficial PR staff at ESPN that they have moved on from the situation.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

No way the Bills should give up a 1st for Turner. Sorry.

All right what should the Bills take with the first pick pick that will help them more than Turner? Not being a wise ###, just asking the question.

Oh, come on ... admit it ... you are being a little bit of a wise ###. (Not that I disagree)

Willis without a doubt. Peterson. Maybe the top CB on their board. If all 3 are gone, then use it on Turner. RB is a luxury position that those of us in the fantasy football world often forget. Hell, I'd send a 5th to Philly for Moats, keep AT and then draft a RB with one of our 3rds.

 

[Obie Wan]

Food for thought....We continue to over value back-ups. Jordan and CT come to mind and while they had fair value right off the bat they wont amount to anything but where they started. Back-up's!!!! While over looking Turners stats I noticed he pretty much beat up on Indy, KC and Oaklands run defense's. His most impressive stats come in back to back games against Baltimore/Pittsburgh last year. I may be missing something and would more than welcome someone to correct me of why he is worth the current attention. This is a quetion to what is his real value in a Fantasy aspect rather than to any said team value. As of now most are saying he is as good as the #4 rookie pick possibly the #3.What say you?

I say Larry Johnson, Priest Holmes, Frank Gore the list goes on and on.

Priest was a starter in year two for 13 games so not sure he was a legit backup when delt. Gore was drafted with starting potential due to lack of competion with no doubt out preforming expectations. LJ came with big time expections and had legit games before becoming the starter and not just mop-up duty. I'm not trying to bash the kid but just wondering where his true value might lie. Is he somwhere inbetween the high and low or are we talking the next LJ/Priest type player?

Turner could have started for almost any other team, but the Chargers drafted him and no, he's not as good as LT. Is he Gore/LJ good? Yes, easily.

for any fantasy team maybe.NFL teams actually value pass blocking and blitz pickup skills so their multi-million QBs don;t get killed.

 

[RD1967]

No way the Bills should give up a 1st for Turner. Sorry.

All right what should the Bills take with the first pick pick that will help them more than Turner? Not being a wise ###, just asking the question.

Oh, come on ... admit it ... you are being a little bit of a wise ###. (Not that I disagree)

Okay just a little... but dudes gotta a baby picture on his Icon, cant really be too smudgey!! As a Daddy of two girls I'm a sucker for the baby pictures.Still gotta say Turner over Lynch without a Doubt!!!

 

[crnerblitz]

Turner could have started for almost any other team, but the Chargers drafted him and no, he's not as good as LT. Is he Gore/LJ good? Yes, easily.

That is a bold statement my friend. You really think that Turner will outclass Gore and LJ? Your are definately drinking the koolaid. We shall see if you are correct but I think history and probibilities probably are against you. If I were the type to do a sig bet I would offer but I am not interested in that nonsesnse so all I can say is good luck to you with that prediction sir.

 

[RD1967]

Turner could have started for almost any other team, but the Chargers drafted him and no, he's not as good as LT. Is he Gore/LJ good? Yes, easily.

That is a bold statement my friend. You really think that Turner will outclass Gore and LJ? Your are definately drinking the koolaid. We shall see if you are correct but I think history and probibilities probably are against you. If I were the type to do a sig bet I would offer but I am not interested in that nonsesnse so all I can say is good luck to you with that prediction sir.

I dont know, love the hell out of Gore, not so much on the LJ thing, Turner might suprise some doubters but your point is well taken... Gotta prove it full time first.Hopefully we will get a chance to see.

 

[RC94]

There hasn't been any real news about Turner in a while and yet this thread just keeps going and going and going...

 

[alg]

There hasn't been any real news about Turner in a while and yet this thread just keeps going and going and going...

Seriously, can't we kill this thing? Woops...One thing not mentioned regarding the 'negotiations' is this: AJ has played most of his cards through the press already. He has point blank stated that a 1st is required for Turner. He hedged a little with respect to a high second. He's a tough trader, and as such is highly unlikely to move off the claims he has already made in public. He has, in effect, boxed himself in. To take a 3rd or lower 2nd for MT at this point would seriously compromise his ability to deal from strength in the future.Now as a Bills fan I can say unequivocally that I am very happy to hear Marv publicly calling AJ 'the #####' Smith's bluff by suggesting that a possible deal was all but dead. That, my friends, is a GM's way of saying 'go stuff it!' In the midst of almost unprecedented hype, I have been flabbergasted by AJ's gall in trying to extract a 1st for a 25 year old backup. M Faulk, with tread still on the tires, only pulled a 2nd and 3rd for crying out loud. This in a league where team's routinely avoid even drafting one in the first round. A league that using RBs up by their 28th birthday.And yet AJ and Turner's legion of koolaid drinkers still think Turner is somehow worth it. It would be the heist of the modern NFL. OMG, I can't stand it any more. Please, someone close this thread, and set it on fire.

 

[enfuego]

An option for TN seems to be fading as Dillon is leaning hard at retirement...LINK: http://www.nfl.com/nflnetwork/story/10138086

 

[Englishteacher]

The Bills are at #12 and the Packers at #16. Both teams would be a little crazy to give up those picks until draft day when they can see if AD falls in the draft. I doubt Peterson falls all the way to #12 but the Bills or Packers trading up to snag him if he falls would probably present good value. If AD falls to the Bills at #12, then that's INSANE value. Not likely though. I think if the Titans were to want Lynch, the other first round pick RB, they'd need to jump ahead of Green Bay, although I don't think it's a lock the Packers take Lynch if he's there, too many quality players in this draft and too many holes on the team. The Packers had about a gazillion draft picks last year and I think they'd like to continue that this year. Restock and rebuild.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

No way the Bills should give up a 1st for Turner. Sorry.

All right what should the Bills take with the first pick pick that will help them more than Turner? Not being a wise ###, just asking the question.

Oh, come on ... admit it ... you are being a little bit of a wise ###. (Not that I disagree)

Okay just a little... but dudes gotta a baby picture on his Icon, cant really be too smudgey!! As a Daddy of two girls I'm a sucker for the baby pictures.Still gotta say Turner over Lynch without a Doubt!!!

That's how I get people to be nice to me. But I'm not sure you answered my reply. I didn't say that Lynch was better than Turner. I said that their need for LB or CB is higher than their need for RB and if their top LB or CB is there, they should probably draft them. Furthermore although there is not that much chance that Peterson drops to 12, if he gets to 9 or 10, they may be able to give up a 3rd to move up 2 or 3 spots to get him. 12 plus a 3rd for Peterson is better than 12 for Turner. Now if their only option at 12 is Lynch, then I agree that using it on Turner would be better than Lynch, although I would like to get a 2nd day pick back as well, maybe a 4th or 5th.

 

[GroveDiesel]

No way the Bills should give up a 1st for Turner. Sorry.

All right what should the Bills take with the first pick pick that will help them more than Turner? Not being a wise ###, just asking the question.

Oh, come on ... admit it ... you are being a little bit of a wise ###. :( (Not that I disagree)

Okay just a little... but dudes gotta a baby picture on his Icon, cant really be too smudgey!! As a Daddy of two girls I'm a sucker for the baby pictures.Still gotta say Turner over Lynch without a Doubt!!!

That's how I get people to be nice to me. But I'm not sure you answered my reply. I didn't say that Lynch was better than Turner. I said that their need for LB or CB is higher than their need for RB and if their top LB or CB is there, they should probably draft them. Furthermore although there is not that much chance that Peterson drops to 12, if he gets to 9 or 10, they may be able to give up a 3rd to move up 2 or 3 spots to get him. 12 plus a 3rd for Peterson is better than 12 for Turner. Now if their only option at 12 is Lynch, then I agree that using it on Turner would be better than Lynch, although I would like to get a 2nd day pick back as well, maybe a 4th or 5th.

I keep going back and forth on Lynch. Honestly, I'm not convinced that Turner is definitely better than Lynch. And all things being equal, I'd prefer not giving a high draft pick to another team for an older RB that will probably cost more $$ as well. Lynch can run with power, he has decent speed to the outside and he is a good receiver. He's not Adrian Peterson, but he's a pretty complete RB and is a guy that can definitely come in and contribute as a #1 RB right away.Either way, if Peterson is off the board at #12 and Patrick Willis is still there, then they need to take Willis IMO. No trading the pick for Turner and no taking Lynch there. They can still get a RB in the 2nd round that has the potential to be a #1 RB.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

No way the Bills should give up a 1st for Turner. Sorry.

All right what should the Bills take with the first pick pick that will help them more than Turner? Not being a wise ###, just asking the question.

Oh, come on ... admit it ... you are being a little bit of a wise ###. (Not that I disagree)

Okay just a little... but dudes gotta a baby picture on his Icon, cant really be too smudgey!! As a Daddy of two girls I'm a sucker for the baby pictures.Still gotta say Turner over Lynch without a Doubt!!!

That's how I get people to be nice to me. But I'm not sure you answered my reply. I didn't say that Lynch was better than Turner. I said that their need for LB or CB is higher than their need for RB and if their top LB or CB is there, they should probably draft them. Furthermore although there is not that much chance that Peterson drops to 12, if he gets to 9 or 10, they may be able to give up a 3rd to move up 2 or 3 spots to get him. 12 plus a 3rd for Peterson is better than 12 for Turner. Now if their only option at 12 is Lynch, then I agree that using it on Turner would be better than Lynch, although I would like to get a 2nd day pick back as well, maybe a 4th or 5th.

I keep going back and forth on Lynch. Honestly, I'm not convinced that Turner is definitely better than Lynch. And all things being equal, I'd prefer not giving a high draft pick to another team for an older RB that will probably cost more $$ as well. Lynch can run with power, he has decent speed to the outside and he is a good receiver. He's not Adrian Peterson, but he's a pretty complete RB and is a guy that can definitely come in and contribute as a #1 RB right away.Either way, if Peterson is off the board at #12 and Patrick Willis is still there, then they need to take Willis IMO. No trading the pick for Turner and no taking Lynch there. They can still get a RB in the 2nd round that has the potential to be a #1 RB.

I've seen some mocks giving us Irons or Pittman and I'm fine with that.

 

[Mr. Peterson]

Look, it would be insane if the Bills were to give up the 1st and 3rd for Turner when they could use those two picks to trade up to get Peterson. They would be essentially be giving up the same amount to get ADP but if they get Peterson then they will have a RB that is ten times better than Turner. Guys, it's very simple. Peterson is once in a decade talent, Turner is just your run of the mill back-up RB that looks great in garbage time. Sure, he will do a fine job when he gets his chance to start, but not anything like Peterson.

 

[RedZone]

For fun, I looked at some recent top ten draft picks and compared their production thus far to MT. Granted, this does not necessarily provide apples to apples, but it does provide some indication of his relative talent and ability.

Caveats - different opponents, O-line, game situations, etc all apply. Please interpret these comments in the non-conclusive manner in which they are provided. Also, I didn't watch enough Chargers football to see how many non-running plays MT was involved in, but I assume that he mostly came in on running plays. I looked at only best year for recent picks as many did not pick up playing time or NFL speed their rookie year.

All player stats taken from FBG player stats page.

MT (2004 - 2006)

YR TM G RSH YD Y/R TD TRG REC YD Y/R TD FPT RANK VBD

2004 SD 13 20 104 5.2 0 5 4 8 2.0 0 11 114 0 [game logs] [splits]

2005 SD 16 57 335 5.9 3 1 0 0 0.0 0 52 63 0 [game logs] [splits]

2006 SD 13 80 502 6.3 2 3 3 47 15.7 0 67 51 0 [game logs] [splits]

TOT 42 157 941 6.0 5 9 7 55 7.9 0 130 0

Cedric Benson - looking at just the 2006 season, his second year with a year experience on his belt and a Super Bowl O-line in front of him and awesome D for field position. Notice the exact same number of carries as MT career. Benson was #5 pick in 2005

2006 CHI 15 157 647 4.1 6 10 8 54 6.8 0 106 38

MT scored approximately 20% more fantasy points, and ran for nearly 300 more yards. Certainly more durable and has not been scorn by team mates at any point. Turner 3 of 3 on pass targets, Benson 6 of 10 with lower yards per catch 7.9 v 6.8.

Ronnie Brown - #2 pick 2005

2006 MIA 13 241 1008 4.2 5 38 33 276 8.4 0 158 25 0

84 more carries, gaining only 67 more yards, same number of TDs and only 28 more fantasy points. Surprised to see Brown's receiving ability (33/38) but MT has slight advantage in y/r 7.9 v 7.8 (Note, MT had a 15.7 y/r last year).

Cadillac Williams - #5 pick in 2005 using his outstanding rookie year

2005 TB 14 290 1178 4.1 6 25 20 81 4.0 0 162 19 19

32 more fantasy points, 230 more yards but on nearly twice number of touches (225 carries and 30 catches of 43 targets). Durability issue? Low y/reception.

Reggie Bush - 2006 #2 pick, with strong passing game of NO. Nearly identical number of carries, more receptions.

2006 NO 16 155 565 3.6 6 121 88 742 8.4 2 178 17 17

48 more fantasy points due to high involvement in passing game (88 catches 121 targets). Lower y/reception and much lower y/carry.

Laurence Mauroney - 2006 #21 pick

2006 NE 14 175 745 4.3 6 30 22 194 8.8 1 136 29 0

6 more fantasy points 18 more carries, 15 more receptions (22 of 30) and a more complete offense. Durability issue? Lower y/carry, lower y/reception

Last year's fantasy sleeper MJD, second round pick

2006 JAX 16 166 941 5.7 13 61 46 436 9.5 2 228 8 67

A fantasy machine because of his TD production, very similar y/carry, y/reception. Was MJD's season indicative of what MT's would have been behind any other back, assuming it was an entrenched veteran like Dillon or Freddy? MJD's small frame have some wondering about durability. In feature role, which would you choose? Had MT had the ball at the stripe more, would we even be wondering about his value?

2004 first rounders were Steven Jackson #24 and Kevin Jones #30.

Both studs, KJ obviously injured right now.

Jackson

2006 STL 16 346 1528 4.4 13 111 90 806 9.0 3 329 3 168

Jones

2006 DET 12 181 689 3.8 6 78 61 520 8.5 2 169 23 8

What are we seeing? When based upon opportunity, MT compares very well. Based upon number of touches, he has a high fantasy point ratio (that would be an interesting stat for possible sleepers). Those who have outscored him in total points did so because of involvement in passing game, an area he does not appear to be weak in, just neglected. MJD could be an example of what MT could do in the feature role, as Jacksonville was not too dissimilar from SD (good D, average passer, tall receivers, heavy dependence on running game). If LT had not vultured his red zone touches (sarcasm intended), MT would be an unquestionable pick up for a mid-first for a team with RB need or at least a high second and conditional 2008 pick.

I really can't see a team like Buffalo not either offering their first, swapping first and giving third or swapping first and conditional 2008 pick. Green Bay or Tennessee as well. AJ's personality may be irritating on this, but these guys are professional businessmen, and I see value here. If MT had come from a pedigree school like Texas or Oklahoma, he would have been a conscensus top five pick, certainly rated about Steven Jackson who was coming off a knee injury. Certainly, the relative value can be debated now as SJ has proven his worth, but he was somewhat questionable the first year because of flawed rehab. There were a couple stories in the St Louis Post I believe.

For what it worth, enjoy the read.

 

[mozzy84]

Look, it would be insane if the Bills were to give up the 1st and 3rd for Turner when they could use those two picks to trade up to get Peterson. They would be essentially be giving up the same amount to get ADP but if they get Peterson then they will have a RB that is ten times better than Turner. Guys, it's very simple. Peterson is once in a decade talent, Turner is just your run of the mill back-up RB that looks great in garbage time. Sure, he will do a fine job when he gets his chance to start, but not anything like Peterson.

I don't think a third will move you up far enough for AD, unless something crazy happens he's a top 5 pick. And I don't think anyones even saying give up a first and a third for Turner, no team is going to do that.

 

[grind]

Look, it would be insane if the Bills were to give up the 1st and 3rd for Turner when they could use those two picks to trade up to get Peterson. They would be essentially be giving up the same amount to get ADP but if they get Peterson then they will have a RB that is ten times better than Turner. Guys, it's very simple. Peterson is once in a decade talent, Turner is just your run of the mill back-up RB that looks great in garbage time. Sure, he will do a fine job when he gets his chance to start, but not anything like Peterson.

I got a kick out of this post. Not saying that this is wrong, but it is funny none the less. Mentions Turner as being a run of the bill back-up that looks great in garbage time while declaring AP a once in a decade talent. Not sure this guy realizes that the "garbage time" Turner has played in is against NFL caliber talent. Not sure how many NFL players say an Iowa State has produced on defense the last three years. I'm sure Kansas State's defense is much better then any second or third string NFL defense. Maybe it is just me, but you put Turner on next year's Oklahoma team playing against college talent, I'm kind of sure he would put up some pretty solid numbers.

 

[Mr. Peterson]

Look, it would be insane if the Bills were to give up the 1st and 3rd for Turner when they could use those two picks to trade up to get Peterson. They would be essentially be giving up the same amount to get ADP but if they get Peterson then they will have a RB that is ten times better than Turner. Guys, it's very simple. Peterson is once in a decade talent, Turner is just your run of the mill back-up RB that looks great in garbage time. Sure, he will do a fine job when he gets his chance to start, but not anything like Peterson.

I got a kick out of this post. Not saying that this is wrong, but it is funny none the less. Mentions Turner as being a run of the bill back-up that looks great in garbage time while declaring AP a once in a decade talent. Not sure this guy realizes that the "garbage time" Turner has played in is against NFL caliber talent. Not sure how many NFL players say an Iowa State has produced on defense the last three years. I'm sure Kansas State's defense is much better then any second or third string NFL defense. Maybe it is just me, but you put Turner on next year's Oklahoma team playing against college talent, I'm kind of sure he would put up some pretty solid numbers.

And you can probably put Lamont Jordan on that college team and he'll probably put up some pretty good numbers too. That comment you just made totally negated your comment of mine. And yes, when was Turner getting the majority of his carries? The same time Jordan and Taylor were getting thiers that made them seem better than they were. They were back-ups for a reason. I know Turner has the best in front of him and could never possibly take out LT. But he's still a back-up getting back-up carries. Turners good, but not as good as some of you guys are thinking here.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

To take a 3rd or lower 2nd for MT at this point would seriously compromise his ability to deal from strength in the future.

Forget his ability to deal from strength in the future. To take a third for Michael Turner would seriously compromise people's trust in AJ's mental health.The Chargers are not itching to get rid of Turner. It's not like they are just trying to dump him for whatever they can get. They want him on the team. If another club wants to make an offer, AJ will listen. If not, the Chargers will keep Turner for a year and wish the rest of the league a great season.

 

[Despyzer]

Turner is just your run of the mill back-up RB that looks great in garbage time.

I wish people would bother to look up stats before they start spouting nonsense. Turner's total carries in "garbage time" (4th quarter, one team leading by a TD or more) = 18. That's fewer that 9% of his carries.

 

[massraider]

To take a 3rd or lower 2nd for MT at this point would seriously compromise his ability to deal from strength in the future.

Forget his ability to deal from strength in the future. To take a third for Michael Turner would seriously compromise people's trust in AJ's mental health.The Chargers are not itching to get rid of Turner. It's not like they are just trying to dump him for whatever they can get. They want him on the team. If another club wants to make an offer, AJ will listen. If not, the Chargers will keep Turner for a year and wish the rest of the league a great season.

I agree.The draft is the lifeblood of a team, but I think mock draft hysteria has amateur draftniks all in a tizzy.

Every fan of every team wants to trade down, no one wants to trade up, but if you look at past drafts, good teams trade up for the guy they want, especially after the first 15 picks.

Trading a guy for a 3rd rounder, a lead back? That's just bad business. Even if the Chargers get nothing for him next year, except a comp pick, it was a smart play. You don't make a trade just to get something, it's just not how the NFL works.

How the heck is AJ Smith ever gonna get a legit offer from anyone if teams think if you just wait him out, he'll take some teams crap offer?

 

[Despyzer]

To take a 3rd or lower 2nd for MT at this point would seriously compromise his ability to deal from strength in the future.

Forget his ability to deal from strength in the future. To take a third for Michael Turner would seriously compromise people's trust in AJ's mental health.The Chargers are not itching to get rid of Turner. It's not like they are just trying to dump him for whatever they can get. They want him on the team. If another club wants to make an offer, AJ will listen. If not, the Chargers will keep Turner for a year and wish the rest of the league a great season.

Exactly. What a lot of people seem to be forgetting is that these other teams aren't only competing against each other for Turner, they are also competing with San Diego's desire to retain Turner.

 

[massraider]

Also, it's amazing how many people take as gospel whatever these people say before the draft, and during trade talks.

We have no idea how much of this is posturing, and bluffing. There's no rush for Tenn, Buff or whoever to close the deal. Turner isn't the only guy out there. Doesn't mean a deal is dead. Far from it. On draft day, that's when the action starts. What Buff is telling the media might just be for Tennessee's sake, we can't assume what all these teams are saying is the gospel truth.

 

[grind]

I would also think part of AJ's insistance on a 1st and 3rd at this point is based on the tender they gave Turner, which doesn't expire until midnight tonight. Why would Smith take say a high 2nd now when he already established the value until 04/21 as a 1st and 3rd. It would really suck for him, if he took a 2nd this week, only to find out some mystery team was going to wait as long as possible, which is tonight, to make a contract offer to Turner while surrendering their 1st and 3rd round pick to San Diego. At that point, AJ would be a fool. After today, I’m thinking AJ may take a somewhat different stance regarding Turner’s value.

 

[Despyzer]

I would also think part of AJ's insistance on a 1st and 3rd at this point is based on the tender they gave Turner, which doesn't expire until midnight tonight.

I agree with the sentiment of your post, but I don't recall A.J. ever insisting it had to be a 1st and a 3rd.

 

[fsufan]

there is more talk on this MB than there was about Barlow a few years back

 

[alg]

To take a 3rd or lower 2nd for MT at this point would seriously compromise his ability to deal from strength in the future.

Forget his ability to deal from strength in the future. To take a third for Michael Turner would seriously compromise people's trust in AJ's mental health.The Chargers are not itching to get rid of Turner. It's not like they are just trying to dump him for whatever they can get. They want him on the team. If another club wants to make an offer, AJ will listen. If not, the Chargers will keep Turner for a year and wish the rest of the league a great season.

You may be right, but I see it as nothing more then posturing. GMs in the modern NFL have an almost genetic imperative to trade soon-to-be-FAs while they still have value. Turner is a backup 5th round pick with some questions about his game. Sure, he could be the next Priest. He could also be the next Barlow. And we know for a near certainty that he will not be a charger next year.The circumstances suggest AJ is just being a GM on the prowl for draft picks. He is a ####, but nobodies fool. You and others have made it sound like he's doing everyone a favor by listening to their offers. The idea that he doesn't want or need to trade Turner is like saying a cat doesn't have to eat the mouse.It should be obvious after the last few years that teams rarely trade high picks for RBs, and they sure as hell don't do it AND throw in a big salary. Too many people buy the hype. Too many people chase after fools gold. A salesman creates a bunch of voodoo around a product and tells you that you better hurry or someone else will swoop in and take it first. Or maybe he really just doesn't want to sell it that bad, so you have to throw in your first born to cement the deal. And fortunately for them there are many who believe it, and spend waaay too much because they MUST HAVE IT. These people are called suckers.I am done with this thread. If you all don't see any value in my criticism, then the polite thing to do is not interrupt the fantasy.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

GMs in the modern NFL have an almost genetic imperative to trade soon-to-be-FAs while they still have value.

AJ Smith is apparently missing that gene. Drew Brees and Donnie Edwards come to mind.

Turner is a backup 5th round pick with some questions about his game. Sure, he could be the next Priest. He could also be the next Barlow.

You may, of course, have questions about Turner's game or think he could be the next Barlow. But I don't think there's any reason to believe that AJ Smith thinks that. Based on all of AJ's comments, I think AJ is very high on Turner, and places substantial value on the prospect of keeping him for another year.That's just my perspective based on everything I've read. I could be wrong.

 

[pyite76]

this thread is like crack.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

this thread is like crack.

the one on the chargers message board is like 490 pages. but you cant fit as many posts on a page.