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*** Official Road to the 2020 Belmont Stakes * * * MAXFIELD OUT (1 Viewer)

wikkidpissah said:
Smitty came down to Santa Fe Downs that spring from LaMesa - tiny but legal track in tiny but illegal Raton NM - and we had him on mounts his 2nd wk down. IIRC, Boo Boo was ridden by Casey Lambert - of NM's first family of rodeo - the circuit's other hot bug that year.
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first TC race i ever wagered on (at a robust 13 yrs of age) was the '82 Preakness ... i remember so vividly 'cuz the winner (Aloma's Ruler) was ridden by "Cowboy" Jack Kaenel, and i thought both horse and jock had the stupidest ####in' names ... that, and i lost $125, which was 4 weeks of Saturday date night money for yer boyo back then ...

he was from Sunland, no?  

or it might've been Conquistador Cielo's jock  :shrug:

 
otb_lifer said:
first TC race i ever wagered on (at a robust 13 yrs of age) was the '82 Preakness ... i remember so vividly 'cuz the winner (Aloma's Ruler) was ridden by "Cowboy" Jack Kaenel, and i thought both horse and jock had the stupidest ####in' names ... that, and i lost $125, which was 4 weeks of Saturday date night money for yer boyo back then ...

he was from Sunland, no?  

or it might've been Conquistador Cielo's jock  :shrug:
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Ego was NM bred. Talk about no business in the classics - i believe either his dam or her dam had been bred to Quarterhorses. All foot, no fury.

For some reason, i happened to know that Booging Boo Boo's dam was a Bold Ego sis so was stunned when she was dropped into a maiden claimer. Tho we'd only been prowling the stock $2500-5000 claimers on the circuit, i talked my cokedealer partner into reaching up to 8500 and was surprised not to have to shake. The owners - biggest breeders in the state, based in Ruidoso - immediately fired the asst trainer who ran their SF stable & offered us $20K. Partner said yes, i said no, we settled on twenny but a 1/4 racing share and some foal rights (which they bought out for 4K when we were over-extended w feed & vet bills). Cost me more to fly out from NY (not to mention the shame of asking for a plane ticket from LaGuardia to El Paso) than my winner's share of the 10K (but listed) stakes purse, but there i was for her only stakes win.

 
otb_lifer said:
ya know, Slappy .... last time i was in LOOO-EEEE-VILL i was admonished for not calling it "Low-vill", as per the locals.

to us, it is LOOOOO-EEEEEE-VILLLL ... now GFY 🤓

oh, and the folk were sweet as the tea y'all imbibe ... ####in' loved it/them - gotta get back ...

BUT YOU GUYS HAVE THE ACCENT, NOT ME. 

✌
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I understand "Slappy" & "lowvul", but the rest is just marbles marching to a beat unknown. :shrug:

 
Fountain of Youth 

1) Candy Tycoon 15/1

2) Makabim 50/1

3) Masterday 30/1

4) The Falcon 50/1

5) Dennis' Moment 2/1

6) As Seen on TV 9/2

7) Country Grammer 15/1 

8) Gear Jockey 20/1

9) Liam's Lucky Charm 15/1

10) Shotski 10/1

11) Ete Indian 8/1

12) Chance It 7/2

this is the prep that signals things are startin' to get real ... 2 months out from the KD (5/2), and this will likely be the penultimate prep for all involved ... Florida Derby (3/28) gives that 5 week sweet spot leading up to Churchill. 

the big story here is the return of Dennis' Moment, first try since his stumbling/bumbling ### backwards "effort" in the Juvey - ya know, it's one thing to crap out the gate, it's quite another not to lift a hoof afterwards ... a #### outing all around - 8th place in what has played out to be a not so flattering field - both Storm the Court and Anneau d'or (1st and 2nd) have bombed thus far in their 2020 campaigns. 

so it's been roughly 3 months since DM has been out, but 5 months since he last gave a flyin' fiddler's #### (bagging the Iroquois back on 9/14/19).  he may be the best horse in this field when it's all said and done, but he is a VERY vulnerable 2/1 ml for tomorrow.  

 the draw was very good to him, right smack dab midpack, coming out the 5 hole.   three solid contenders in Shotski (meh, but dangerous), Ete Indian (LOVE!), Chance It (Like) drew the 10-12 gates, respectively ... that is one #######' quick first turn down there, and i believe only Barbaro and Big Brown have ever won a prep stakes coming from the extreme outside post.  very tough luck for the rambunctious Chance It  :unsure:

controlling speed is on the rail in the form of Candy Tycoon, coming in for Pletcher ... just broke his maiden on this track at the same distance ... will be used up early, probably battling with Ete *****, who will most likely scoot by Shotski pdq ... last time we saw the ***** he was setting the Holy Bull pace, being chased by current Derby fave Tiz the Law - the ***** ceded in the stretch, was beaten by three, but was an easy 11 lengths clear of the trailing pack.

can see him hanging around to the finish, but the 1 horse should be folding at the 3/4 ... big step up in class here, he (Candy) will pace set as long as he can. 

Dennis is flanked in the 6 hole by solid contender As Seen On TV, who finished second to Chance It in the Mucho Macho back on 1/4, a race which was recently flattered big time by the yuuuuuuge win from Sole Volante in the Sam Davis ... SV came in third in that Mucho Macho, which may turn out to be one of the top key races of the season, even though it's not an official prep. 

the Mucho was also As Seen On Tv's first stab at a route (1m) ... he's worked very well coming into this F.o.Y., and 9/2 ml for Lookin' at Lucky's kid is juicy af.   expect a bang down to the 3/1-5/2 range by post time.   this cat is live. 

so, with the extreme outside post hampering a top contender in Chance It, and with Ete ***** having to work hard early, it sets up nicely for DM and ASoTV ... gonna draw a line thru this one for both the 11 and 12, though i do think the ***** can make a solid go of this ... but the fortunate draw for the 5 & 6 is gonna tell the story ... no excuses for either, in that respect.  

really got a feeling on this ASoTV ... think DM is gonna need this one to get his feet back under him, though i do consider him a top Derby prospect ... but, gotdamn, look out for Ete ***** on the hustle. 

THIS is gonna be a good one. 

:deadhorse:

 
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F.o.Y. Day - really looking forward to this one - a few more thoughts here on this Saturday morning, but, first ...

finally found a decent replay:

2020 Mucho Macho Stakes

Chance It came in as 3/5 favorite, saved ground on the rail, while ASoTV took the slightly wider path ... both with great trips, and one of the greatest stretch battles we've seen in years.  

both rated perfectly off the quick early fractions ... Chance It with the slight advantage from the inside, really did scoot up that rail in a BoRAIL-like fashion ... it opened wide for him, and, man, did Gaff dive in - beautiful ride by TG.  

Chance It was given a 99 fig for his efforts, ASoTV a 98 .... but it looked closer than that  :lol:

4 of Chance It's 6 races have bagged at least a 90, with the MM his best ever speed - also note all 6 of those starts were on today's Gulfstream track ... meanwhile, the 98 for ASoTV was indicative of an ascending talent - 4 lifetime starts: 76-88-91-98, the last 2 at Gulfstream. 

every F.oY. winner of recent vintage has had at least one try over the GP surface, which doesn't bode well for Dennis' Moment, but plays nicely to the 2 Mucho Macho graduates. 

more Chance It fodder: his works have been phenomenal- Feb. 24 - 3f in 34.3 (1/9), Feb. 17 - 5f in 58.1 (2/37), Feb. 9 - 5f in 59.3 (3/43).  

as i said in my previous post, gotta go back to super freaks Big Brown and Barbaro to find a prep stakes winner coming out that 12 hole at GP ... the draw absolutely killed this cat, though turnabout is fair play for rival ASoTV, who will be the benificiary in today's matchup - he damn near swallowed Chance It last out, even with the winner's golden rail. 

that's what is landing me on ASoTV every time i 'cap this mutha ... if he continues his forward moving form, he's gonna be the one to beat - Dennis' Moment is a very fine racehorse, and could very well be the cream of this year's crop come the latter stages of the season ... but that doesn't mean he'll be the best today ... however, his draw, coupled with the handicap of Ete and Chance on the outside, make him a MUST use in any exacta, and a sure thing in deeper exotics - he needs to be respected, but i'll pass on 2/1 ml for the win, tyvm. 

Ete ***** ... man, he intrigues me a ton - started out on the spinach, switched to dirt in his third lifetime start in 12/19, an OC 75k at 1m that he took down comfortably, bagging an 86 fig ... came back for the Holy Bull and led TtL all the way 'til the stretch ... pacesetter that day with some nice fractions ... awarded a 95 fig for his work.  banged a 7f work in 1:23 over the turf back on 2/16, followed that up with a 4f :48 bullet 3 days ago ... he's gonna have to rate today, as the early speed drew the 1 hole - if Chance It rips by him early, he should find a nice stalking space ... the way the 12 horse handles the first 1/2 mile is gonna say a ton about how this plays out.  

pace meltdown? maybe the 7, Country Grammer, sneaks in for a piece ... hasn't been out in 3 months, but broke his maiden in that one, a very sluggish (:51 1/2) 70k MSW up here at the Big A - grinded that one out, will get a much hotter pace today - first off the layoff for Brown, outta Belmont winner Tonalist, Javi in the irons.  

so, what do we have?

DM the fave, ASoTV the one to focus on, Chance It with much work to do out the 12, Ete ***** drews slightly better, Country Grammer may crash exotics. 

think Chance It is coming in best of this lot, but ASoTV has the edge today ... Ete ***** will rate, DM has the chops to smoke 'em. 

gimme the 6, ASoTV, followed by 11/5/12/7. 

:deadhorse:

 
The ***** on the Engine at Gulfstream

yuuuuuge goings on a couple hours prior to the race when the connections of the 12 horse decided they didn't wanna chance it (see whut i did thar?) outta that far outside post (as i alluded to in my run up posts, it's a kiss of death out there).

this changed the entire complexion of the race before they even got saddled ... my biggest concern for both ***** and Chance It was the pair cannibalizing each other on the hustle out ... no question Chance It was gonna have to blow by the *****, setting the 11 horse up into a prime stalking spot.  

but once Chance it was yanked, it opened up the clear path over for the lead for our boy ... he broke like lightning, and planted his ### firmly on the front, much like his last out here in the Holy Bull - big dif in this one was no Tiz the Law to run him down. check.#######. mate.

i had posted in the first preview that there was a very good chance the ***** could dominate on the hustle ... once Chance It scratched it was basically a fait accompli. 

looking closer ...

Candy Tycoon ran a hell of a race, and a surprising tact, at that - expected to be speed on the rail, he ducked inside, instead, and rated back of the pack.  brisk finishing kick to bottom out the exacta at a nice price.

CT nosed out As Seen on TV, who pretty much ran third the entire way ... the front end speed was too much to catch, and, after 4 ascending figs, he flattened. prolly end of the Derby trail for ASoTV ... not horrible, just very uninspiring.

ASoTV nosed out Shotski, who now finds himself with enough pts to punch the KD ticket.  was expecting him to be buried by the speed to his outside, and that was reduced to one after the scratch.  solid finish, argument could be made he actually finished third ... that foto, tho ...

Dennis' Moment?   :lol:

Prat said he bobbled slightly coming out the gate, but he was forwardly placed ... Prat also said that DM dropped the bit at the 5/8th pole, and he didn't see the need to urge him after that- LAST PLACE for the favorite.  

on the heels of his stumble out the gate, and subsequent 8th place finish in a suddenly weak looking Juvey, this cat may be toast ... think his biggest problem is between the ears. 

back to Ete ***** ... the score is even more impressive when factoring in the late injury to regular rider Luca Panini ... Florent Geroux jumped right in and didn't miss a beat - he's on his way to Churchill, with a date back here for the Fla. Derby in 4 weeks.   firmly on the map, i loved him coming in, and the 12 horse scratch made this his race to control - great victory for Biannacone and co.

fractions were not posted during the race, but i found :23.2 for the 1/4, :46.3 for the 1/2 ... final time for the 1 1/16th was 1:43.2 - with the ***** safely in hand and cruising.   

... as far as Chance It - he'll now head to Tampa Bay Downs for the Derby there this coming Saturday ... fellow Mucho Macho grad Sole Volante is waiting - SV slammed Derby timber darling Independence Hall over the Tampa surface 3 weeks ago in the Sam Davis, and is gonna be one ####### tough out - Chance It gonna have to work his ### off to bury SV - it's boiling down to a match race, as the other possibles i see nominated have no biz being on the same track as those 2 ... yeah, anything can happen, especially at Tampa, but i wouldn't bet your money on it.  

ETE *****!

:deadhorse:

 
Dang. We are getting so close to May now, and I still haven't picked out my hat. 🙁

At least we have some good horse info here...but...to be honest, it's really all about the hats. 

You picked out your hat yet, Otb? 

 
otb_lifer said:
im'ma clock the ***** on his run up to that first turn ... don't blink  :eek:
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i dunno - from my trip handicapping days, you check the fractions to guess who's gonna move when so you can notice somebody doing something special. no clock discomboobulates my eye

 
not Derby trail related, but here's a look at the richest race ever run - the Inaugural $20,000,000 Saudi Cup. 

lotta familiar faces up in there: Tacitus, Midnight Bisou, McKinzie, Mucho Gusto, Gronk .... aaaaand MAXIMUM SECURITY - 'member last year when Max's owner was gonna put up $5,000,000 to any challengers, after that horrendous Kentucky Derby DQ?   welp, he took the Riyadh coin, instead.  

hell of a finish!  DAMN!

2020 Saudi Cup

AND HE WASN'T DQ'd!

oooh, ####!!!! - the money i (and countless others) lost on that bull#### takedown last May  :censored:    :wall:

❗

:ptts:

btw, of note here: Midnight Bisou makes a Zenyatta-esque bid ... see Smiff gettin' busy?

cost him 200k in fines, and bagged himself a 10 day racing ban for the "excessive" st-st-st-stick.  damn, Smitty!

:deadhorse:

Max pockets a cool $10m for the incredible win. 

well done!

 
otb_lifer said:
not Derby trail related, but here's a look at the richest race ever run - the Inaugural $20,000,000 Saudi Cup. 

lotta familiar faces up in there: Tacitus, Midnight Bisou, McKinzie, Mucho Gusto, Gronk .... aaaaand MAXIMUM SECURITY - 'member last year when Max's owner was gonna put up $5,000,000 to any challengers, after that horrendous Kentucky Derby DQ?   welp, he took the Riyadh coin, instead.  

hell of a finish!  DAMN!

2020 Saudi Cup

AND HE WASN'T DQ'd!

oooh, ####!!!! - the money i (and countless others) lost on that bull#### takedown last May  :censored:    :wall:

❗

:ptts:

btw, of note here: Midnight Bisou makes a Zenyatta-esque bid ... see Smiff gettin' busy?

cost him 200k in fines, and bagged himself a 10 day racing ban for the "excessive" st-st-st-stick.  damn, Smitty!

:deadhorse:

Max pockets a cool $10m for the incredible win. 

well done!
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Validation! But, maaaan, i dont think ive ever seen a top thoroughbred hard-ridden for that long. The jock was into him more than a mile out, on & off the bit the whole rest of the way. Weird & wonderful!!

 
wikkidpissah said:
Validation! But, maaaan, i dont think ive ever seen a top thoroughbred hard-ridden for that long. The jock was into him more than a mile out, on & off the bit the whole rest of the way. Weird & wonderful!!
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gotta luv the lugging out in the 4 path, then diving inside Gusto and finding a gear very few have ever had ... goofy as ####!

 
 TWO months away  :headbang:

some news and thoughts ...

Mr. Monomoy officially off the trail ... the Risen Star winner suffered an ankle injury, and will now take his fitty points to the shed. 

Charlatan logged a 7f work yesterday (1:26) ... Baffert is definitely eyeing a major prep stretch out - make no mistake that this beast was always being pointed to Churchill. 

Maxfield dropped a 4f :48.2 on 2/26 ... the Derby was never gonna be a possibility, but this cat can come back strong and dominate the second half (Haskell or Jim Dandy, Travers, BC Classic).

Chance It just ripped a :47.1 4f in prep for this Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby ... LIGHTS. OUT.   scratching outta that F.o.Y. is looking better n' better. 

Nadal smokes a 6f work in 1:11.3 back on 2/23, he's on the outside here - HOW SMOOTH AND POWERFUL DO THIS FREAK'S STRIDES LOOK? damn. a lil' funky on the bit, and a weeee bit of lugging, but that motor is ridiculous. next up is the Rebel on 3/14.

Thousand Words  chucks a robust :59.2 5f work out yesterday in prep for this Saturday's yuuuge San Felipe. looking fit and ready to tackle that stacked field.

... and stacked, it is - a look at some probables for this weekend's 3 preps:

SAN FELIPE - 

Authentic, Thousand Words, Storm the Court, Wrecking Crew, Honor A.P. 

looks like it will be a scant field of six, but it's ####### LOADED.  the Baffert duo alone make this one of the best preps we'll see.  

TAMPA BAY DERBY - 

Sole Volante, Chance It ... really no need to list the others, amirite?  ahhhh, #### it, exotics need to be played - rest of the probables: Letmeno, Market Analysis (interesting for Pletcher), Texas Swing, Palm Springs (another Pletcher of note), Spa City (lotta hype earlier on this one), Restless Dancer, King Guillermo (been knocking around on GP turf).

GOTHAM - 

very nondescript field, and the last of the one turn miles on the trail ... not really much to get jazzed about here, N.Y. is such a shell of it's former self ... this lineup/race is most indicative:

Mischievous Alex (just took down the 7f Swale), Untitled (fitting!), Big City Bob (last out for 3rd in the Champagne some FIVE months ago), Necker Island, Flapjack (outta Oxbow, just took down the 7f Arlington over the poly), Montauk Traffic (7f Winkfield winner for Rice), Celtic Striker, War Stopper, Informative.

welp, one of 'em gotta win, and they'll score fifty points, guaranteeing a Derby gate  :loco:

i mean, this is like passing GO! in Monopoly ... only reason i can see for the bigger guns not shipping into this cakewalk is the config (only 1m, one turn) - still scratching me head over Shotski shipping to GP for the F.o.Y. rather than pocketing this sure Derby berth ... but, again, it's a step back in forward route progress.  SEASONING. 

can i get a collective "UGGH!" here for dat Gotham, tho? 

 
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Walking Boot said:
We're shipping Tizamagician to Dubai... he's racing in the UAE Derby at the end of March. 100 Derby Points for first, 40 for 2nd, could be our way to the run for the roses.
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O'Neil has Fore Left primed for that one, he just took down the 2000 Guineas over the same Meydan track they'll be racing over in the UAE ... gonna be a tough out, he had a very tough outside post, but took 'em with ease.  

the extra distance may be an equalizer, but Dougie has this cat set up over there for big things. 

of course, just bagging 2nd (or even the 20 pts for 3rd, considering all the defections we usually get - see Mr. Monomoy already) will get ya boy in. 

 
Walking Boot said:
I was thinking the same, my boy has shown some spirit at the longer distances on occasion (though tired out, too...), and 41 might be a lock for the Derby this year. 21 might be a long shot but not out of the realm.
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cutoff point has been roughly low 20s past few years ... expect at least 2 or 3 defections in the weeks running up ... 21 could do it. 

was wise to get both these horses outta Cali/Baffert's crosshairs - dead money out there behind that beastly stable of his. 

question ... why didn't your boy ship to the Big A for this horse#### Gotham coming up?

 
Walking Boot said:
Haha good question. I only get the dispatches from the Mandella & Spendthrift Farm after the decision is made. They'd been eyeing the UAE since literally the day after the last race so I dunno if there's something going on behind the scenes that they wanted to aim him at this one for some reason. Maybe the like him in the longer distance? Maybe that extra point cushion of 3rd place getting 20 points vs 2nd at Gotham? Your guess is as good as mine lol
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i hear ya ... but with this weak ### crop up here they coulda gone Gotham/Wood ... now they're roped into ONE shot to procure the points, as the UAE is 5 weeks out from the Derby ... no chance of wheeling out stateside after the ship back home, ya know?

anyways ... best wishes to you and all the connections - that's also Fla. & La. Derby day ... big ones on tap all around. 

 
"whut about the Euro and Japanese preps, huh?"

 what about them?

ok, Gronk (Euro) came over last year and did some nice work, and Master Fencer (Jpn) was not a total embarrasment ... but the usual fodder from the foreigners (including Dubai - remember the folly that was Mendelssohn?) fare thee quite "not good" in regards to the KD. 

so why bring it up?

'cuz we got American Pharoah's kid over there in Japan making some noise (he has to, Coronavirus has seen a ban on all live crowds at the tracks).

Cafe Pharoah is 2 for 2, taking down both stakes he has entered .... current points leader on the Japan circuit, and looking like a pretty sure thing to show up in Churchill. 

Cafe Pharoah - Newcomer Stakes his maiden outing, 1m 1/8th ... he's the #1 horse, pretty much having his way with the field - BIGLY.  damn straight, buddy ... he cruised.  totally in control.  if any of you know Japanese, plz translate 🤔

Cafe Pharoah - Hyacinth Stakes took 2 months off, and shipped to Tokyo for his second career try here ... 14 horse field, blows the start, breaks last - fractions were not dazzling, to say the least, so he grinded this mutha out - note this was scaled back to 1m, making his effort even more impressive ... very nice move down that 4 path- looked like he wanted more at the finish. 

so ... we've seen him wire, and come storming from last - versatile. 

Kentucky bred, 475k auction purchase for the Nishikawa group ... trained by Noriyuki Hori.  

we know the pedigree for the classic distance is here,  and we have 2 time graded turf winner Mary's Follies on the bottom. 

currently 50-1 futures odds. 

he'll be there.  

🇯🇵🇯🇵🇯🇵

:deadhorse:

 
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otb_lifer said:
Cafe Pharoah - Hyacinth Stakes took 2 months off, and shipped to Tokyo for his second career try here ... 14 horse field, blows the start, breaks last - fractions were not dazzling, to say the least, so he grinded this mutha out - note this was scaled back to 1m, making his effort even more impressive ... very nice move down that 4 path- looked like he wanted more at the finish. 

:deadhorse:
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well that's a confident ride - spot the field 10 lengths, take the quarter turn 6 wide, hand ridden

plenty of bottom in the breeding - a reine-de-course in her direct female line, fam responsible for major distance sires His Majesty & Graustark

 
wikkidpissah said:
well that's a confident ride - spot the field 10 lengths, take the quarter turn 6 wide, hand ridden

plenty of bottom in the breeding - a reine-de-course in her direct female line, fam responsible for major distance sires His Majesty & Graustark
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Night Prowler & Regal Glory are half bros who have won their fair share of turf stakes, as well .... the AmPh top gives us the dirt/speed factor. 

 
50/20/10/5 at stake today in 3 races ... coast to coast, up n' down we go:

Tampa Bay Derby

1) Texas Swing 12-1

2) Spa City 10-1

3) Relentless Dancer 12-1

4) Chance It 5-2

5) Market Analysis 8-1

6) Mo Mosa 30-1

7) Sole Volante 2-1

8) Letmeno 12-1 

9) Unrighteous 20-1 

10) Bye Bye Melvin 20-1 

11) King Guillermo 15-1

12) Tons of Gold 30-1

very hard to land anywhere but the chalk here ... but, it is Tampa, the chalk are not exactly top end timber (yet), we will have a souped surface, these are mercurial babies still. 

4 entrants have 100+ BSF to their credit ... Sole Volante and Chance It (chalk), Unrighteous, and a very interesting Spa City. 

Spa City broke his maiden last out at Gulfstream (Mdn 50k) - pretty much wired 'em, snagged a 103 for the win (tied with Chance It for highest in field).  his 2 works coming into this one have been brilliant - Tampa legend Centeno rides for McLaughlin, who is hitting at a 26% ship rate in routes.  big question is the step up in class ... but, then again, we have yet to see the 2 faves race back from their last out - lotta questions to be answered - Spa City will be in perfect position to draft Texas Swing, who wired on this surface one month ago ... rail is hitting at a 25% clip(!) thus far down there, pretty remarkable number - but Texas gonna have to ramp up from the 94 he registered laat month.  that rail, tho ... he can steal this mutha at a very nice price. has been killing his works ... he will lead 'em around for as long as he can, and Spa City can tuck right in. 

Unrighteous closed to nip at Spa City in the last out for both ... the winner's 103 was a shade better than his 102  - he's working as crisp as anyone in here, and the 20-1 is tempting price for an ascending (80 to 102) Pletcher.   adding the blinks today, will get a beauty stalking spot from the 9 hole. 

Market Analysis is a yuuuge question mark ... looked great in his debut, a 7f Mdn 50k at GP ... a solid 94 for first out, and drilled a :47.4 4f sizzler in prep - Johnny V up for Pletcher, 8-1 from midpack - can dictate if he wants the lead.

Sole Volante and Chance it look so formidable ... the former smoking them (including heavy fave Independence Hall) over this same track in last month's Sam Davis ... drilled a ridic :57.1! 5f work on the turf, followed a 7f dirt jaunt of 1:23 ... he's fit, and is gonna have a TON of pace to close into today.  he's a deserving favorite - race profiles to his strength, he's pilfered this surface already, and he's in top form.  

stablemate Chance It was lights out holding off As Seen on TV and Sole Volante in the Holy Bull back in January ... faces a 9 week layoff, but Biancone is hitting at 31% on next out after a win (Sole Volante qualifies here as well). much like the rest, he worked remarkably well for this race, blowing a 47.1 4f for his final one.   the most consistent speed figs in the field, will be in that lead pack for sure.  

i want Sole Volante to beat me here, but it's a tall task ... if he falters it'll be the front speed holding, which gives a nod to Spa City/Chance It/Texas Swing (25% from the rail) ... Sole will come crashing in late with Unrighteous- i gotta think he (SV) finds a way, but there are live speedsters in play here ... gonna be a fun one to watch. 

Gotham

1) Celtic Striker 30-1

2) Informative 15-1

3) War Stopper 5-1

4) Attachment Rate 9-2

5) Necker Island 12-1 

6) Mischievous Alex 3-1 

7) Sixto 8-1

8) Montauk Traffic 6-1

9) Flap Jack 30-1

10) Untitled 4-1

11) First Deputy 30-1

a wide open field that we're not familiar with at all ... a one turn mile, with a cast of unknowns, being contested at a dilapidated relic, but, hey - THEY GOT SLOTS!

oooofff ... only saving grace here is that value can be found in such a nondescript contest, so let's try. 

we'll start up high, tho ... Attachment Rate has the best speed figs of the lot, bagging a 101 last out down in GP, closed into some very hot pace, and came home comfortably by 6 lengths.   he good up in here. 9/2 is a very solid plunk.  live. 

Mischievous Alex hung a 99 up 5 weeks ago in easily taking down the G3 Swale at GP ... working sharp coming in ... certainly has the speed to run away with this one.  been bouncing around surfaces (tried turf, failed) and distance (dialed back to sprints last 2 after consecutive routes, including the turf race) - enigmatic cat here, maybe he flips the switch in this mess? dirt speed figs are on the incline with each outing, but does he bounce adding the extra furlong today?  he gotta beat me at 3/1. 

Montauk Traffic is 6-1 ml, and has consecutive sprint wins over the Big A for Rice, who has a 30% hit rate at first route try ... working good coming in, gonna need pace today - LIVE. 

Untitled blew a blistering 105 in his maiden, winning by 10+ in that 6f at GP.  funished 4th in his first route try (the Mischievous Alex/Swale), but came back his next outing with a solid 93 in giving hot prospect Governour Morris a slight tickle down in Tampa.   4/1 gotta beat me, but not a bad price considering this field. 

value?  ok ... let's look at the other Rice entry, the #11 First Deputy - comes in at a fat 30-1, has won his last two races, both 6f sprints, with a robust 94 last try ... gonna bank on him relishing the stretch and stepping up - perfect stalking spot from the outside, speed figs on the steady incline - got a hunch he may be sitting on a big one, and i'll entertain the 30-1 ml - swinging big on this one, the timber in here is suspect, at best ... if one of the faves steps up, so be it.  

Sixto and Informative can also make it very interesting underneath ... the former is bred for routing, the latter bagged last out at same distance here in Queens. 

San Felipe 

1) Fort McHenry 25-1

2) Honor A.P. 4-1

3) Wrecking Crew 12-1

4) Authentic 6/5

5) Thousand Words 9/5

6) Storm the Court 6-1

7) Swagsational!!! 30-1 

what a contrast to that facacta Gotham, eh?  definitely saving the best for last today ... the 3,000+ miles in distance is close to the chasm between Cali and N.Y. as of late.  think we could go 6 deep here that would romp over at Aqueduct today ... hell, even SWAGSATIONAL!!! might give 'em a scare (ok, maybe too much there).

yeahyeah ... the Bafferts are the story here - both Authentic and Thousand Words are unbeaten stakes winners, and deserving co-faves .... breaking right on top of each other, to boot - damn, we gonna have a hellraisin' duke out here, you betcha.

both worked well, with Authentic needing to shake some 2 month rust ... Authentic has flashed higher speed figs, but stretches a bit further today.  he was so dominant his last out, winning by a 7+ in the Sham, though a tad green in the stretch - anyways, how can ya plunk against?

well, maybe because Thousand Words has been keeping slightly classier company, and has a win over this surface/distance last time out in the Lewis.  

i give a slight advantage to TW outta the two. 

Honor A.P. - will he try to steal this one from the inside? coming in on a very lengthy 4 month layoff for his seasonal/trail debut ... he did win his last out over a mile on this track, with a 97 fig to show for it.   Shirreffs is only hitting at a 10% rate on 90+ day layoffs, though - if the Bafferts cannabalize, this cat is my choice ...  but that's a VERY HUGE if ...   4-1 is fair for an animal that can spring the big upset ot finish 7th. 

Storm the Court ... ahhhh, yes, our BC Juvey winner - a race that has been greatly discredited with the bombing out of both Anneau d'or and Dennis' Moment. 

decided to kick off his '20 campaign with the 7f San Vicente at SA, also know as Nadal's coming out party ... was a curious spot to drop this cat into, but wtf do i know from training horseflesh? he had a very wide trip, never factored - we draw a line? ok. 

so he returns today to the 2 turn route schtick, which is where he hung that big 102 up over this surface in the Juvey - his last work was a dazzling :59.1 5f ... he's fit, and i can't see him missing the board today, very live in ALL slots, i believe in this cat, he has the top speed fig at this distance, and we'll chalk the San Vicente up to a very vigorous rust shake. 

Baffeets vs the wannabes ... best prep of the season, gimme TW as of now, but the two wannabes are verrrry tempting at their prices. 

THIS is a top flight Derby appetizer. 

BIG DAY!

:deadhorse:

 
otb_lifer said:
Gotham

winner will be my first toss on May 2nd

Tampa Bay Derby

AYSFKM?  Tampa never disappoints

San Felipe

Authentic is, quite simply, awesome.
Click to expand...
OTB, Bafferts barn is loaded with 3yr olds and he may have one or perhaps even two better than Authentic in Nadal and Charlatan.  He also had a 3yr old filly that just broke her maiden yesterday at SA.  Is the Jusify route to the Derby (no starts as a 2yr old) the new path to the Derby/Oaks?

 
elguapo07 said:
OTB, Bafferts barn is loaded with 3yr olds and he may have one or perhaps even two better than Authentic in Nadal and Charlatan.  He also had a 3yr old filly that just broke her maiden yesterday at SA.  Is the Jusify route to the Derby (no starts as a 2yr old) the new path to the Derby/Oaks?
Click to expand...
yes, i spoke about both Nadal & Charlatan at length in a few previous posts up in here  :thumbup:

he also has Azul Coast and Eight Rings, both with great shots at finding a Derby gate, too ... we could be looking at a possible 6!! Baffert entries if all pans out, and injuries don't derail. 

the filly is gonna need to mature quickly, both Charlatan & Nadal debuted in February, same as Justy ... March is a bit late in the game, but not totally outta the question.

Leroy Hoard said:
Derby Dozen

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2020/03/03/derby-dozen-march-3-2020-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx

Only seeing the one Tapit horse. Is this guy missing any others?
Click to expand...
WOW ... dude is way higher on the ***** than most ... gonna be one hell of a Fla. Derby.

if Anneau d'or is listed i missed him  :shrug:  think i'm going down on that ship much like my ill-fated GUNNEVERA stance in 2017 ... im'ma draw a line through the Risen Star (first time blinks), and slam a boat on him come La. Derby (3/21) - still think he's honest enough to be my KD tri-key box horse.    hmmm.  

ETA: now seeing Anneau d'or possible for the SA Derby, not Louisiana ... ooooffff - he's gonna have the top 4 from yesterday's San Felipe to deal with ... errrr - he's gonna have to earn this bid BIGLY. 

as of now, my top three to WIN the Derby:

1)Nadal 2)Tiz 3)Authentic

 
Last edited by a moderator:
just caught a sober replay of the TB Derby ... King Guillermo came home in a hurry, daayyyum. 

... but Sole Volante prolly ran a quucker latter stage - he had himself parked dead last, and found a nice route up the rail for second - the front end speed pretty much held all the way, with Texas Swing bagging third. 

all in all, not the horrid day for SV as one would think with a 49-1 turf animal beating him - think he's still very live for Churchill, especially with so many need the lead/EPs at the top of the rankings ... not to mention the distance questions for all of said darlings.  

 
Honor A.P.

extremely solid effort, was his first try since October ... second place in that San Felipe field is yuuuuuge, considering FIVE months of rust to shake off.  

nice, very promising.  

Authentic was in no real danger, but Honor boy was much the second best ... wheel back for the S.A. Derby on 4/4, and we'll see where we at with him - don't be surprised if he turns the tables, and KD will be that magic "third off the bench"

as i mentioned in the run up post, Shirreffs is barely at a 10% hit clip when racing on a 90+ day layoff ... was a stacked field, tons of rust, needed some foundation - and i think he took a very big step forward - if you wanna beat the Bafferts out there, this is the cat.  

 
wikkidpissah said:
gonna be interesting, cuz they all have speed but havent had it tested often enough to learn how to use it. Authentic's a big fella - runs like Justy
Click to expand...
... come 6:30 this coming Saturday i think you're gonna regard Nadal as more akin to Justy - can't wait for this freakin'  Rebel - i believe we see a coronation  :drive:

ETA: he drilled a :59.1 5f yesterday in prep, 1/58 at the distance 

:wub:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
otb_lifer said:
... come 6:30 this coming Saturday i think you're gonna regard Nadal as more akin to Justy - can't wait for this freakin'  Rebel - i believe we see a coronation  :drive:

ETA: he drilled a :59.1 5f yesterday in prep, 1/58 at the distance 

:wub:
Click to expand...
didnt mean he ran as well as Justy, just like him - tall fella who's not the least ungainly, goes to the front like he thinks its not really winning if you dont lead all the way and cant imagine anyone passing him

 
wikkidpissah said:
didnt mean he ran as well as Justy, just like him - tall fella who's not the least ungainly, goes to the front like he thinks its not really winning if you dont lead all the way and cant imagine anyone passing him
Click to expand...
yeah, understood :thumbup:

Nadal cut from same cloth, and has BC Classic/Zenyatta slayer Blame on top - think he's gonna be better suited for the distance(s).  

 
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