*** Official Road to the 2020 Belmont Stakes * * * MAXFIELD OUT (1 Viewer)

[wikkidpissah]

as far as Derby pace, we should have plenty this year, and i think Nadal is now gonna get a lesson in rating down in Hot Springs ... a second place finish gives him a gate - think it's time to school just a bit ... if this cat is laying down a :21.3/43.2 split in Churchill it'll shock me. 

that was my point - i've seen horses sour when they don't get to make the pace they want. but he looks like a miler+, not a sprinter

have ya checked out Sole Volante's score in the Davis?  gotdamn can he get after it ...

in the music biz, we call that GB. very professional running & riding. there's having a perfect trip and making one, and me shonuff like a 4th q faster than the 3rd at this stage. IIRC we've had good luck w Davis winners the last few yrs. nothin says we won't keep that up w this'n

 

[otb_lifer]

post Vicente Nadal hype ... BB high on this cat 

>>>>> It certainly wasn't easy, not with Ginobili to his outside the entire way. After an opening quarter mile in 21.81 seconds, Nadal poked his head in front, but Ginobili matched strides as the half came up in 44.09.

Nadal again looked ready to put away a stubborn rival in the stretch, but he delivered a more consistent drive through the stretch under urging.

“That was all raw talent there," Baffert said. "I put one little breeze into him — half mile — and that was it. He’s just a good horse.”

Behind Ginobili, Fast Enough was another 1 1/4-lengths back in third. Reigning 2-year-old champion Storm the Court never factored in his first race since upsetting the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, finishing fourth.

Despite being headed at the eighth pole by Ginobili, Rosario indicated he wasn't really concerned with that rival.

"I can feel the horse the way they move, and my horse was moving really well," Rosario said. "I knew I had more horse and I wasn't really worried."

He added the effort should provide a solid building block for route race next out.

"He runs like he wants to go two turns, but you don't know until he does it," Rosario said.

Nadal, who paid $2.60, ran back from a 6 1/2-furlong victory on Jan. 19 that saw him down to as low as 10-1 in Las Vegas' Kentucky Derby futures. He is owned by George Bolton, Arthur Hoyeau, Barry Lipman and Mark Mathiesen. 

Baffert said that with this colt, a $700,000 purchase, “We’re laying foundation, and the good ones always find a way to win.”

“We’re basically running him into shape like I did with Justify,” Baffert added.

In that respect, Nadal's ahead of schedule. At this point in 2018, the future Triple Crown winner had yet to race. And so the hype will continue to build. <<<<<

 

[wikkidpissah]

well, unlike last year, we're not lacking for talent, w Tiz & Nadal and possibly Maxfield, plus a couple showing up that would have topped the '19 Derby season's class. looking fwd to it

 

[otb_lifer]

well, unlike last year, we're not lacking for talent, w Tiz & Nadal and possibly Maxfield, plus a couple showing up that would have topped the '19 Derby season's class. looking fwd to it

... and my guy Anneau d'or running this Saturday in the Risen Star 

looks like Blackberry Wine (considered to be of timber status) will also have a gate for that one ... gonna be a coming out party for A d'or methinks, bigly. 

 

[otb_lifer]

as per this Saturday's Risen Star(s) ...

there are 23 entrants, so the event will be split into two races ... also lengthened to 1m 1/8th for this year's editions. 

Enforceable and Blackberry Wine are the big names in race 12 ... Scabbard and Farmington Road will get some play, but the Lecomte winner and the speedy newcomer should be top choices - 

Anneau d'or will go in race 13, effectively avoiding the tougher race 12 field ... star crossed Lynn's Map will give it another go, but dunno how long he'll hang around the trail if another clunker (5th last out in the Smarty) is tossed. 

we also have "Patch Redux", in the form of one eyed gelding FINNICK THE FIERCE   how can ya NOT love that one?  decent chops, to boot ... pulled a 4th in the Lecomte after a very impressive 2nd, closing sweetly down the middle, and nosing out current Derby fave Tiz the Law for second behind Silver Prospector (Enforceable up in there as well).  btw, how goofy was TtL in that one? 

both races will dole out 50/20/10/5 ... winners clinch a Derby berth, 2nd place cats will have a nice leg up. 

FINNICK THE FIERCE! get the #### up in here, y'all ... we gots a mascot!

 

[otb_lifer]

this be FINNINCK

... the Fierce

 

[wikkidpissah]

this be FINNINCK

... the Fierce

suckling, maybe less than a wk old, there

 

[otb_lifer]

suckling, maybe less than a wk old, there

happy lil' feller there, what with both nuts still intact - amirite?

and, tbh, if i can't drum up love and/or interest for this cat, i might as well shut it the #### down. 

 

[wikkidpissah]

happy lil' feller there, what with both nuts still intact - amirite?

and, tbh, if i can't drum up love and/or interest for this cat, i might as well shut it the #### down. 

has he got Big Red blood? chestnut, blaze, white socks (cant see how many).

that matted coat reminds of the yr i was in NYC but still partners in a breeding operation in NM, getting just-whelped pictures in the mail. i would almost get wood if the pic was that thing where they jump str8up and have all four hooves off the ground.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

this be FINNINCK

... the Fierce

Isn't he a little small to run in the Kentucky Derby?

 

[otb_lifer]

Isn't he a little small to run in the Kentucky Derby?

they're working on it

 

[Leroy Hoard]

they're working on it

Too much Beef-A-Reeno and the horse's other eye might fall out.

 

[otb_lifer]

two i have a very keen eye on, Anneau has been my key horse pick since the Los Al Futurity

Sole Volante hype: (Ross,HRN)

In Saturday’s Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3),  Sole Volante, living up to his moniker meaning “Flying Sun,” exploded from mid-pack and flew by Independence Hall to win going away by 2 1/2 lengths. The Patrick Biancone trainee traveled 1 1/16 miles in 1:42.60. Sole Volante previously captured the one-mile Pulpit Stakes over the Gulfstream Park lawn and closed for third place in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on the Gulfstream main track. He’s earned $196,310 in four starts.

Pedigree: Sole Volante has a middle distance pedigree, and he may get classic distances due to his running style, mindset and conditioning. Karakontie, the son of turf sprinter Bernstein, is a multiple Group 1-winning miler in France. Besides Sole Volante, the second-crop sire is represented by two other listed/graded winners: Karak, winner of the Tyro stakes on dirt, and English turf sprinter Kenzai Warrior, whose damsire sire Lemon Drop Kid is by Kingmambo.

Sole Volante is the fourth foal to race and third black type earner in the immediate female family. His half-brother, Explode, won the 2019 Canadian Derby (G3) at 10 furlongs, while his half-sister Light of Joy is a listed stakes-placed turf router in England.  Their dam Light Blow’s full sister, Light Shift, won the Epsom Oaks (G1), and she bore multiple Group 1-winning turf router and new sire Ulysses. Light Blow’s other full sister, Strawberry Fledge, bore French Group 1 winner Cloth of Stars, who finished second to Enable in the 2017 Arc de Triomphe and third to her in the 2018 edition.

Other notable names in the second generation include the 2014 Champion Older Male & Champion Turf Male Main Sequence and 1999 European Champion Mare Shiva.  Sole Volante’s third dam, Northern Trick, was a French Champion 3-Year-Old Filly. To top it all off, Sole Volante has Rasmussen Factor breeding (inbred to a superior mare through siblings) to thrice-champion mare Miesque. She is Karakonte’s third dam and is also the dam of Kingmambo.

Anneau d'Or hype: (Zipse, HRN)

Currently the top horse on my 2020 Kentucky Derby list, Anneau d'Or has plenty of questions still to answer. I expect many of those concerns to be addressed, however, in just a matter of days as he rises to the ranks of a top contender.

The occasion for the son of Medaglia d'Oro will come Saturday at Fair Grounds in the second division of the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star Stakes (G2). Both $400,000 flights attracted large fields going for the lion's share of 85 qualifying points toward the May 2 Kentucky Derby. While 23 horses are entered in all, my gaze at the big picture will be transfixed on Anneau d'Or.

Having closed Sunday night as the 28-1 individual ninth choice in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2, Anneau d'Or clearly is respected for his accomplishments as a juvenile, but not quite embraced as one of the favorites for America's most prestigious horse race. Fair enough. So let's take a look at why I like him better than most.

The first question all good 2-year-olds need to answer as they transition to 3, and the Kentucky Derby trail, is whether they can carry over their good form against younger horses into similar success facing physically maturing sophomores. Often the best stakes horses at 2 are passed by those getting good closer to the spring classics. I don't expect Anneau d’Or to fall into that trap for a few reasons. 

He was more of a late developer among top juveniles, rather than a horse who showed us his very best at 2. Keep in mind that he did not debut until the fall, and after an easy first out victory over the Golden Gate Fields turf, he was thrust into the big time. Proving his class, he ran to a photo finish in two big races, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), and improved his speed figures with each start.

Only two months removed from his last outing, it would be unlikely for him to regress now, especially when you consider four strong works at Golden Gate. Trained by Blaine Wright, who got a taste of the Triple Crown trail last year with Anothertwistafate, Anneau d'Or should be ready to pick up right where he left off.

When considering whether he will continue to improve at 3, his pedigree also gives us good indication that the best is yet to come. Both his sire, Medaglia d'Oro, and his broodmare sire, Tapit, have top offspring who only get better with experience.

Perhaps being able to effectively get the classic distances is another question mark on the resume of Anneau d'Or, but remember he has run exclusively at two turns in his brief career. His connections also show strong belief in his distance ability with their willingness to begin the season with a nine-furlong prep.

His breeding is not only steep in class, but also proven in producing horses who can do far more than sprint. That, plus those last three workouts at six, seven and six furlongs respectively over the consistent synthetic surface at Golden Gate lead me to believe that Wright sees his charge as one that can run all day.

Next, it is fair to wonder whether Anneau d'Or can actually get the job done against top competition. After all, his record in stakes racing currently stands at 0-for-2. But I see far more positives in his 2-year-old record than negatives.

Anneau d'Or flashed the obvious talent which led him to be an expensive 2-year-old in training purchase when he ran off from a field of maidens on the Golden Gate turf in his career debut. Then, I cannot recall a horse with as little experience running a better race in the history of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Exiting that one, you might suspect a bit of a bounce. Instead, Anneau d'Or came right back to run another bang-up race, finishing second to the highly regarded Thousand Words over an off track at Los Alamitos.

His detractors will point to the fact that he failed to win both races when Anneau d'Or looked like he had every shot in mid-stretch. I instead see a horse who has improved with each start and ran big against top competition very early in his career.

If there is any real problem getting by horses, the addition of both blinkers and rider Joel Rosario for the Risen Star should help provide a stronger finish.

In short, I believe Anneau d'Or is a horse with a big future. He was good at 2, running increasingly well at a trio of tracks, and he looks set up to be better at 3.

The proof can begin to show itself Saturday in New Orleans, where I look for Anneau d'Or to earn his first stakes victory in the second division of the Risen Star. If I'm right about him, this will be the first step in what could be a march all the way to the Kentucky Derby winner's circle.

 

[otb_lifer]

Risen Star Division 1

Mr. Monomoy

took 'em all the way around ... never felt that he was in any danger, tbh ... early pressure from speedy Blackberry Wine, to keep the fractions honest enough, if not tepid  ... shook at the top of the stretch, kicked clear, and came home a comfy 3 lengths ahead - note that Enforceable/Silver State/Farmington Road all finished a bit faster/equal in the final furlong, with Lecomte winner Enforceable's very late bid down the middle most impressive.  

the winner is trained by Cox, and outta the first crop of Palace Malice, who took down the Belmont and the Jim Dandy in succession some 6 years ago ... so we got class here to go get it, along with the 50 pts to secure a gate at Churchill.  

Risen Star Division 2 

Modernist

played similar to division 1, with Modernist and NY Traffic leading them around all the way to the stretch ... the winner saved precious ground by staying on the rail the whole trip, very urgent late charge down the middle by Major Fed (similar to Enforceable), who may have run the best race, all things considered ... was only his second career start (hasn't been out since November), and first route try ... second place charge home here is damn promising.

back to the winner - Modernist is trained by Mott, and outta Uncle Mo, who sired super horse Nyquist (winner of BC Juvey/San Vicente/Fla. Derby/Kentucky Derby) ... has been some durability issues with some of his crop, but the class to perform at the highest level is there ... Modernist clinches a gate for the KD, and Major Fed is all but assured with his 20 points, just needs to board in his next.  

mah boys Anneau d'or and Finnick the Fierce may still be running ... ooooooff - first time blinks for the even money fave Anneau coming into this one - definitely did not belp. very sluggish efforts. 

El Camino Real

Azul Coast

last of the 10/4/2/1 preps, run over the synth at Golden Gate Fields ... unremarkable cast of characters here, so a perfect spot for Baffert to drop in his B team ... Azul Coast was 6/5 favorite, and (kinda) took care of biz.  finished up like a turf route, what with basically the whole ####in' field in late contention (fire drill synth stretch run special) - Indian Peak made the winner work, and American Farmer damn near caught him - would've taken him at the Derby distance 

but, ehhhh, another Baffert win. 

Azul Coast is outta 2010 Derby winner Super Saver, and ups his record to 2 wins and 1 place in 3 lifetime starts.   Baffert may take the Sunland Derby route with this one, looks like the surest path to getting a Churchill berth for the owners. 

 

[wikkidpissah]

not much in the way of Derby meat in that collection....

kinda like last year's crop - setting/stalking lazy fractions, coming home OK

A d'O has an excuse in that he had no excuse, but....

 

[otb_lifer]

not much in the way of Derby meat in that collection....

kinda like last year's crop - setting/stalking lazy fractions, coming home OK

A d'O has an excuse in that he had no excuse, but....

... Storm the Court did not exactly flatter the BC Juvey with his 4th place in the San Vicente, now followed up by Anneau's el floppo yesterday (attended for a hot 10 seconds, faded) - man, if Dennis' Moment doesn't stumble out the gate in November we might be looking at him being very close to TtL and Raffa.  

wither FINNICK THE FIERCE?

back to Palookaville  :(

 

[wikkidpissah]

wither FINNICK THE FIERCE?

sounds like a toddler's pronunciation of "finish first". dont think we'll be hearing Travis Stone pronounce that any time soon...

 

[otb_lifer]

Southwest Stakes today at Oaklawn

pretty evenly matched field of 9 going at it, this (not the El Camino) will be the last of the 10/4/2/1 variety.  

Silver Prospector (#2, 9/2) and Gold Street (#4, 6/1) are the bigger names up in here ... they've tangled in their last two races, with Silver nosing Gold in taking the KJGC back in November (Tiz the Law 3rd in that one), while Gold bounced back and hung a 99 up last time out over this same track in the Smarty Jones, back on 1/24 (Silver in a very sluggish 4th).

Silver banged some nice works coming in, but hung his best speed fig up in a sprint ... figs decilned from 95 (6f) to 92, 90, 90 (three successive routes).

Gold Street, conversely, has incresed figs in each race: 60-83-89-90-93-99 ... note the first 5 were all 6f sprints, with the 90 & 93 coming over the poly. 

jock Garcia is hot down there atm, the horse already blew a big fig here in the (wet) Smarty ... 6/1 ml is very live for this cat. 

the ml fave at 3/1 is the #9 Answer In, who has hit the board in all 3 careeer starts ... hasn't been out yet this year, coming in off a 2 month layoff, but does have the closing speed to play a huge role here ... wide post may hinder a bit, but if he gets the pace he needs up front he can settle in and rate his #### off.  needs to beat me at that 3/1, but will benefit from stablemate Wells Bayou (#1, 8/1) laying down some fast early splits.  

the #6, Chase Tracker, is coming in at 7/2 ml - and i'm not loving that number ... labored to finish 3rd in both the Nashua and Remsen up here, after bagging a win in his maiden outing.  hasn't been out in over 2 months, and is gonna need a very hot pace to dive in to ... Johnny V up for Pletcher, so he's got that going for him.  had a nice 5f work for this one, but he's gonna need to beat me at that price.  could be charging late with Answer In if the #1 horse does his job, but i think the #9 is the better horse.  

the #3 horse, Shoplifted (8/1), has been banging around with this lot, even beating the fave, Answer In, two back in the Remington S'board ... bagged himself a 93 for that closing effort ... attended closer in his last outing, the Smarty, but flattened out, going the entire mile in 3rd place.  needs a big bounce back here for Asmussen, but will most likely fill in botton of deeper exotics. 

#8 Taishan (5/1) has been mixing it up with the top Cali class, but hasn't shown consistent speed ... his works have been very solid, but a huge step up is gonna need to be taken today ... interesting cat, who may be the early stalker behind the front 2 ... he did break slow in the Sham, so, getting out clean today will be half the battle.

#5 American Butterfly (15/1) makes his first stretch out today, after closing beautifully in his last out, suggesting the extra distance today may play favorably for him ... looked like he wanted more ground, and he'll get it today.   works have been respectable for ol' man Lukas - very live at that price, and i see him factoring late. 

if Gold Street can rate efficiently off the sizzle of Wells Bayou's early engine i think he'll be in great position to take this one down ... but if the rail horse draws GS into early battle, well, forget it ... that will open it up for Answer In and perhaps Chase Tracker and American Butterfly.

... or Wells Bayou can steal it on the lead from the rail, which is how he took his last race down over this same track - 8/1 has me looking verrrrrrry closely at this one.  

 

[wikkidpissah]

we're so spoiled - getting a full breakdown of a holiday-monday feature in Arkansas. don't ever change -

 

[otb_lifer]

we're so spoiled - getting a full breakdown of a holiday-monday feature in Arkansas. don't ever change -

grazie, wik 

it's a great betting race ... controlling speed on the rail, coupla closers with chops, a few stalkers who can make it interesting, etc. 

really think it's gonna play out with Wells and Gold chasing each other all the way to the finish line, but it wouldn't shock me to see any of the horses take it down. 

 

[otb_lifer]

Southwest Finish: 2/1/9/3

Wells Bayou did what was expected, set some nice pace 22.3, 46.2) ... Answer In actually attended very close, along with eventual winner Silver Prospector - Wells and Silver were neck n' neck in the stretch, but Silver dug down and cleared by roughly one length.

those two were well clear of the rest ... Gold Street was called once - craptastic crash today. 

Wells Bayou would make a nice pacesetter come May ... hope to see him back for the Rebel & Arkansas Derby. 

Silver Prospector just needs to board once to clinch a berth, but he's pretty much a lock atm.  

 

[chet]

BSFs ...

Withers 86

Lewis 92

Bull 100

Tiz is sittin' pretty with 22 accumulated Derby points ... usual cut has been right in that vicinity, safe to say he's in atm. 

interesting to note that his next probable start is listed as the Louisiana Derby (3/21) ... so Tagg's gonna get outta Florida (Fountain of Youth/Fla. Derby), effectively icing this cat for 7 weeks, then waiting another 6 for the Derby ... can't fault them, i guess, as just finishing 4th in La. clinches it.  still think him and Franco need some work with traffic and breaking smartly ... KD gonna have 19 other animals, of much higher quality than has been seen.  still think he's the class of the crop as of this morning (Maxfield still working back) ... should easily be top choice on next futures, which come out on Friday.  

no word yet on Ete Indien, who i think can be a valuable early speed asset in Churchill.

meanwhile, Thousand Words is pointed to the San Felipe (3/7) - other possibles for that one include Authentic and Royal Act, who i'm very high on after that great stretch rally in the Lewis - will only be the son of American Pharaoh's 3rd start, 2nd on dirt. 

My buddy is part owner of Authentic and is really high on his chances.  Just sayin'.

 

[otb_lifer]

My buddy is part owner of Authentic and is really high on his chances.  Just sayin'.

definitely a top 10 prospect, regarded higher (top 5) by some ... had a great Sham, though a bit green at times - needs work, and cred at a longer distance (Sham was 1m) - pedigree is speed laden, distance is the only question atm. 

but his strides are long and sweeping, can really motor once underway - slated for the San Felipe (3/7), which will stretch him out a bit more (1m 1/16th), and pit him against his more highly regarded Baffert stablemate Thousand Words ... key race going forward, will also see the return of Storm the Court, who crapped out in the San Vicente ... alotta questions gotta be answered in this upcoming prep.

Baffert killing it, though, what with those two, and the freakish Nadal ... not to mention recent El Camino winner Azul Coast. 

all four should be in the KD starting gate, barring injury, of course.  

 

[otb_lifer]

Southwest Stakes  Silver Prospector

Gold Street shuffled at the 1/4, faded ... Answer In hustled out from the 9 hole, urgent pressing, facacta stretch ... Wells held 'em as long as he could, Silver Prospector with a solid bounce back effort for this class ... saved a ton of ground on the rail, found a sliver thru stretch traffic, and exploded ... nice ride by Santana.  

ps- announcer definitely had some coin on Wells Bayou, was none too thrilled on that stretch call 

 

[otb_lifer]

speaking of the loaded Baffert stable, he had another horse debut this past weekend at Santa Anita - Charlatan  blew some doors off with a 105 BSF maiden score 

Justify made his debut on 2/18/18, two years ago to the day (7f at S.A.), so precedent is set here for a late crash of the Derby trail ... cat's gonna steal some thunder from Nadal, and has already gone down to 20/1 future odds at many books. 

Speightstown sire may raise questions about distance chops, but bottom has route cred, and top does have Storm Cat lineage.  

look the #### out on this one, that barn is ridiculous atm. 

 

[wikkidpissah]

Southwest Stakes  Silver Prospector

Gold Street shuffled at the 1/4, faded ... Answer In hustled out from the 9 hole, urgent pressing, facacta stretch ... Wells held 'em as long as he could, Silver Prospector with a solid bounce back effort for this class ... saved a ton of ground on the rail, found a sliver thru stretch traffic, and exploded ... nice ride by Santana.  

ps- announcer definitely had some coin on Wells Bayou, was none too thrilled on that stretch call 

Answer In gets a mulligan for this - nothing worse for a young horse than getting fanned on the 1st turn and he still had it to be rushed up & respond to SP's charge , yet did not completely give up when gassed in the stretch. It'll be a flat-looking line in the PPs but was anything but.

 

[wikkidpissah]

speaking of the loaded Baffert stable, he had another horse debut this past weekend at Santa Anita - Charlatan  blew some doors off with a 105 BSF maiden score 

Justify made his debut on 2/18/18, two years ago to the day (7f at S.A.), so precedent is set here for a late crash of the Derby trail ... cat's gonna steal some thunder from Nadal, and has already gone down to 20/1 future odds at many books. 

Speightstown sire may raise questions about distance chops, but bottom has route cred, and top does have Storm Cat lineage.  

look the #### out on this one, that barn is ridiculous atm. 

the fig speaks to it, of  course, but i dont think i've ever seen a sub 1:09 debut. yeesh!

 

[otb_lifer]

Answer In gets a mulligan for this - nothing worse for a young horse than getting fanned on the 1st turn and he still had it to be rushed up & respond to SP's charge , yet did not completely give up when gassed in the stretch. It'll be a flat-looking line in the PPs but was anything but.

think the bigger problem for him than drawing the 9 hole was the fact that the class speed drew the rail ... had Wells Bayou been drawn midpack, Answer In could've drafted Villainous a tad better, rather than being fanned five wide going into that quick first turn ... by the time Villainous ceded, Answer In was in tougher shape than the fresh (rail trip) Silver P and the uncontested leader - yeah, was asking a lot from him to find that stretch gear after what had to be a miserable Trakus chart.  

the fig speaks to it, of  course, but i dont think i've ever seen a sub 1:09 debut. yeesh!

gonna be interesting to see how he responds when asked for more ... may have been a coupla stick taps coming home, but he looked fresh, full of run, and mostly in hand ...

 Baffert is keeping Authentic and Thousand Words in Cali (San Felipe), shipping Nadal to Oaklawn (Rebel), and eyeing the Sunland Derby for Azul Coast ... dunno where he's gonna place Charlatan ... Justify followed up his maiden score with a 1m Aoc at Santa Anita, then rolled into S.A. Derby with zero points accumulated ...

but, where does he go now with this loaded barn?  come East? F.o.Y. is in 2 weeks, so that's out ... though he could go to an allowance start for Charlatan, stretching him  him out (like Justy), and aim for the Fla. Derby, or ... *GASP* the Wood?

he's gotta get all these owners to Churchill ... think he's gonna spread this path out for Charlatan. 

 

[wikkidpissah]

the difference between a six-furlong v a seven-furlong debut for Justy is significant (tho i havent read a condition book in a while) - my guess, esp considering the depth of the stable and the miler blood, is maybe a secondary, Preakness path for Charlatan w a possible diversion to the Roses if he pops up a freak

 

[otb_lifer]

the difference between a six-furlong v a seven-furlong debut for Justy is significant (tho i havent read a condition book in a while) - my guess, esp considering the depth of the stable and the miler blood, is maybe a secondary, Preakness path for Charlatan w a possible diversion to the Roses if he pops up a freak

hmmm.

Baffert does have the luxury of slotting him in softer spots, though ... that ownership group has Derby fever - all Charlatan needs is a place showing in one of the 100 pt races to steal a Churchill gate.  

10 weeks is not alotta time to school this cat, but it is enough time to test the route chops, then parachute into a c-note prep, if all goes smoothly. 

 

[otb_lifer]

Charlatan hype:

>>> Bob Baffert debuted  another dazzling 3-year-old from his seemingly infinite band of blueblood buzz saws when he sent out Charlatan to capture his debut race Sunday, scoring by 5 ¾ lengths under Drayden Van Dyke in 1:08.85 for six furlongs, an eye-opening clocking on a track that has been playing seconds slower through the first 26 days of the Winter Meet.

Lending further significance to Charlatan's big debut win yesterday is the fact that he's been assigned a whopping 105 Beyer Speed figure. By contrast, the Bob Baffert-trained Justify, who debuted on Feb. 18, 2018, earned a 104 Beyer en route to an undefeated campaign that saw him retired following his Triple Crown sweep.

“We knew he was a really fast horse,” Baffert said Monday morning of the $700,000 son of 2004 Breeders' Cup Sprint winner and Eclipse champion Speightstown, who had two bullet works among his 12 recorded drills prior to his debut.

“His gate works were very impressive,” Baffert said. “He worked one 12 and two from the gate (on Jan. 22) with an older horse and that tipped them off, but I thought he still might need one. He still looks a little soft, and until they run, you don't know, but he was pretty impressive.”

Asked his read on his three-year-old crop to date, which includes first division Triple Crown sophomores Nadal, Thousand Words and Authentic, the two-time Triple Crown winner opted to play his cards close to the vest, as is his wont.

“You know what? Right now, I'm still not talking about it too much,” he said. “I've got to figure out where I'm going to run them. Everybody keeps asking me every day, 'What are you going to do?' I know what I'm going to do, but only I know.

“Things change and I don't want to jinx them.” <<<

>>> How deep is Bob Baffert's Derby bench? There's no telling, as his unraced Charlatan, an imposing chestnut colt by Speightstown, blew away his competition by 5 ¾ lengths in Sunday's fourth race at Santa Anita, stopping the clock for six furlongs in a torrid 1:08.85 while geared down under Drayden Van Dyke.

Breaking from the outside in a field of four, Charlatan was away a step slowly, but was into contention instantaneously, making the lead at the five furlong pole and he maintained a one length advantage over Shooters Shoot going to the three furlong pole, while 3-5 favorite Lane Way was in tight quarters at the rail. Approaching the quarter pole, Charlatan held a 1 ½ length lead and he widened through the lane while well within himself.

“I gigged him just a little after the break, just to get him into the race,” said Van Dyke. “I really didn't know that much about him. You could see he had a couple bullet works from the gate and that he'd been training well. He blew by those horses so easy and as you could see, he galloped out big.”

Off as the second choice at even money, Charlatan, who is out of the Gone West mare Authenticity and sold for $700,000 as a Keeneland September yearling, paid $4.40 and $3.00.

With Baffert's Derby lineup including the likes of recent maiden winner Nadal, stakes winners Thousand Words, Authentic, Eight Rings and Azul Coast, Charlatan is now poised to join them on the Kentucky Derby Trail.

“This race gives us great hope,” said Bob Liewald, on behalf of part owners Starlight Racing, which was also a part owner of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, who perhaps not so coincidentally, broke his maiden at first asking on Feb. 18, 2018. “The (final) time on this racetrack, was pretty good. The next race, we'll have to step up in a bigger field and see what happens.”

Charlatan's complete ownership line also includes SF Racing, LLC, Madaket Stables, LLC, Stonestreet Stables, LLC, Frederick Hertrich, III, John D. Fielding and Golconda Stables.

Baffert, who will be seeking a record-equaling sixth Kentucky Derby win this year, did not saddle Charlatan, as he had a prior commitment according to his assistant Jimmy Barnes.

Shooters Shoot, a 9-1 longshot with Abel Cedillo up, held second by 7 ¼ lengths over Lane Way, who was shuffled back a bit going to the far turn and didn't threaten thereafter.

Fractions on the race were 21.89, 44.72 and 56.52. <<<

 

[rockaction]

There's an insider's goldmine here. I can't follow along due to my greenness around the track, but this thread has some goods for the reader.

 

[otb_lifer]

There's an insider's goldmine here. I can't follow along due to my greenness around the track, but this thread has some goods for the reader.

one goal of mine via this endeavor is to get you on a boffo tri-key box play for the Derby ... hopefully bagging enough coin to come East and throw the eff down 

... and, ty, my good man

 

[Man of Constant Sorrow]

There's an insider's goldmine here. I can't follow along due to my greenness around the track, but this thread has some goods for the reader.

I can’t follow along due to otb's gawd awful accent. 

Take da marbles outta ya mouf otb! 

 

[jimmy b]

one goal of mine via this endeavor is to get you on a boffo tri-key box play for the Derby ... hopefully bagging enough coin to come East and throw the eff down 

... and, ty, my good man

Tri-key box, hell no...with the info I’m gathering from orb-lifer I see some $1 super-fecta boxes in my future..

See ya at the window...

Stop by the FanDuel Sportsbook at the Meadowlands otb, the pints are on me.

 

[otb_lifer]

Tri-key box, hell no...with the info I’m gathering from orb-lifer I see some $1 super-fecta boxes in my future..

See ya at the window...

my usual 10 spread may be cut down to 6 this year ... Tiz the Law vs the Bafferts 

dollar box BOMBS are the #### - maaaaaan, if Max Security stayed up last year   

Stop by the FanDuel Sportsbook at the Meadowlands otb, the pints are on me.

will try to head out there for the Rebel (3/14) - do you work the cage? 

gotta think some St. Patty's hijinks might be throwin' down that Saturday, as well

IN

 

[otb_lifer]

I can’t follow along due to otb's gawd awful accent. 

Take da marbles outta ya mouf otb! 

ya know, Slappy .... last time i was in LOOO-EEEE-VILL i was admonished for not calling it "Low-vill", as per the locals.

to us, it is LOOOOO-EEEEEE-VILLLL ... now GFY 

oh, and the folk were sweet as the tea y'all imbibe ... ####in' loved it/them - gotta get back ...

BUT YOU GUYS HAVE THE ACCENT, NOT ME. 

✌

 

[wikkidpissah]

>>> How deep is Bob Baffert's Derby bench? There's no telling, as his unraced Charlatan, an imposing chestnut colt by Speightstown, blew away his competition by 5 ¾

Off as the second choice at even money, Charlatan, who is out of the Gone West mare Authenticity and sold for $700,000 as a Keeneland September yearling, paid $4.40 and $3.00.

can this be right?! sired by a son of Gone West out of a Gone West mare? that's some Arkansas breeding right there! i read thousands of pages of Blood Horse stud catalogues when i was getting into the breeding end of the game and i aint never seen a 2nd generation in-breed

at any rate, if that's right & you got Mr Prospector 3X3 in tail-male & mare, you just aint running a classic distance in May of your 3rd yr, so i wouldnt put a penny on our powerful young friend Derbywise

 

[otb_lifer]

can this be right?! sired by a son of Gone West out of a Gone West mare? that's some Arkansas breeding right there! i read thousands of pages of Blood Horse breeding catalogues and never seen a 2nd generation in-breed

at any rate, if that's right & you got Mr Prospector 3X3 in tail-male & mare, you just aint running a classic distance in May of your 3rd yr, so i wouldnt put a penny on our powerful young friend Derbywise

let him burn some coin ... the more the merrier - he's gonna have eye popping figs, Justy's ownership, Baffert in the shed - kinda cat who will take a ton of interest ... if he makes it to Churchill, let him beat you

 

[-fish-]

Last time I saw a post-surgery update, Maxfield was back to working out and aiming at the Rebel Stakes March 14, but that was a couple weeks ago.  Anyone seen anything more recent?  I still haven't seen a horse I like more for this May if he's right.

 

[otb_lifer]

Last time I saw a post-surgery update, Maxfield was back to working out and aiming at the Rebel Stakes March 14, but that was a couple weeks ago.  Anyone seen anything more recent?  I still haven't seen a horse I like more for this May if he's right.

he had a light 3f work on 2/17 ... he was the impetus for this thread, and i've been waiting patiently ... but to see him wheel out for the Rebel would be nothing short of miraculous, imo.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I can’t follow along due to otb's gawd awful accent. 

Take da marbles outta ya mouf otb! 

There are a couple on here that need a translator. From the horse's mouth to our ears.

 

[otb_lifer]

checkin' some papers ... at trio of notables from last weekend -

 Charlatan:

(Speightstown - Authenticity, by Quiet American)

Pedigree: Charlatan has miler/middle distance conformation and pedigree.

Speightstown captured the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Sprint and is the sire of 78 graded/listed winners in North America. The majority of his stakes winners are sprinter/milers. However, five of his offspring have won at 10f, three of them over dirt.

Charlatan is a second foal. His half-sister, Hanalei Moon, is a restricted winning turf miler with earnings of $295,090 in 14 starts. Their dam, Authenticity, is a multiple graded winner at 1 1/16 miles and won one of three tries at 1 1/8 miles. She also placed in four Grade 1 events and earned $883,362 in 12 starts.

Charlatan’s second generation includes two black type earners, Grade 3-placed sprinter Brielle’s Appeal and Tiz Alluptome Now, a multiple stakes-placed dirt sprinter. Charlatan’s third dam, Appealing Missy, was a multiple graded winner in France and California from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles.

Quiet American is the damsire of 72 graded/listed winners in North America. His daughters’ offspring have no distance limitations, although the majority are best between a mile to 1 1/8 miles. For the most part, their progeny reflect their sire’s affinities for distance. Quiet American’s daughters' most notable offspring include 2005 Horse of the Year Saint Liam and 2006's champion 3-year-old male, Bernardini.

Silver Prospector:

(Declaration of War - Tap Softly, by Tapit)

 Pedigree: Silver Prospector has the pedigree to handle classic distances, but he has high, choppy leg action, which could hinder him as he stretches out and may explain his early start on turf.

Declaration of War earned honors as the 2013 Champion Older Male in England and Ireland, and he placed third, beaten a nose and head, in the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic in his only start on dirt. His offspring have no distance limitations, although none have won beyond 1 1/8 miles in North America. The son of War Front has sired 21 graded/listed winners overall, with eight in the U.S.

Silver Prospector is the fifth foal and first black type earner in his immediate family. His dam, Tap Softly, is a multiple stakes-placed sprinter/miler. She earned $207,696 in 24 starts. There is little blacktype in Silver Prospector’s distaff line, although his second dam Silentlea won the Astarita (G2) and his third dam Lea Carter was a stakes-winning sprinter.

Mr. Monomoy:

(Palace Malice - Drumette, by Henny Hughes)

Pedigree: Mr. Monomoy has a middle distance pedigree borderline for classic distances.

Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice is the No. 2 Second Crop sire. The son of Curlin’s offspring includes Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf hero Structor and P.G. Johnson Stakes heroine Crystalle.

And of course, Mr. Monomoy is a half-brother to 2018 Champion Three-Year-Old Filly Monomoy Girl. Their dam is a half-sister to graded winning turf veteran Drum Major, a winner from seven to nine furlongs. Mr. Monomoy’s second dam is the stakes-winning miler Endless Parade. 

Grade 1-winning sprinter Henny Hughes is the damsire of nine graded/listed winners. The majority are sprinter/milers. Three, including Mr. Monomoy, have won at 1 1/8-miles.

 

[wikkidpissah]

 Charlatan:

(Speightstown - Authenticity, by Quiet American)

Pedigree: Charlatan has miler/middle distance conformation and pedigree.

Speightstown captured the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Sprint and is the sire of 78 graded/listed winners in North America. The majority of his stakes winners are sprinter/milers. However, five of his offspring have won at 10f, three of them over dirt.

Charlatan is a second foal. His half-sister, Hanalei Moon, is a restricted winning turf miler with earnings of $295,090 in 14 starts. Their dam, Authenticity, is a multiple graded winner at 1 1/16 miles and won one of three tries at 1 1/8 miles. She also placed in four Grade 1 events and earned $883,362 in 12 starts.

Charlatan’s second generation includes two black type earners, Grade 3-placed sprinter Brielle’s Appeal and Tiz Alluptome Now, a multiple stakes-placed dirt sprinter. Charlatan’s third dam, Appealing Missy, was a multiple graded winner in France and California from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles.

Quiet American is the damsire of 72 graded/listed winners in North America. His daughters’ offspring have no distance limitations, although the majority are best between a mile to 1 1/8 miles. For the most part, their progeny reflect their sire’s affinities for distance. Quiet American’s daughters' most notable offspring include 2005 Horse of the Year Saint Liam and 2006's champion 3-year-old male, Bernardini.

Glad to see he wasnt as inbred as i thought - no danger of sprouting extra fetlocks & such. Still, i see speed sires Mr Prospector twice, Dr Fager twice and Deputy Minister close up in the pedigree and must wonder if classic distances are in his future

 

[otb_lifer]

Glad to see he wasnt as inbred as i thought - no danger of sprouting extra fetlocks & such.

think @Man of Constant Sorrow is our resident fetlock wonk, will await his chiming in ...

Still, i see speed sires Mr Prospector twice, Dr Fager twice and Deputy Minister close up in the pedigree and must wonder if classic distances are in his future

he will excel in this modern milieu if he runs to the class of Speightstown's five classic route winning foals ... not many in this day n' age are bred to dominate as such, what with the high cruising speed needed to factor, to boot (which our boy has in spades).

he has work to do ... next up for him (wherever it may be) will prolly be the most anticipated race of the season.

still think he parachutes into either the Louisiana or Sunland Derby (<--- longshot, but possible path).

place finish moves him along. 

 

[wikkidpissah]

think @Man of Constant Sorrow is our resident fetlock wonk, will await his chiming in ...

he will excel in this modern milieu if he runs to the class of Speightstown's five classic route winning foals ... not many in this day n' age are bred to dominate as such, what with the high cruising speed needed to factor, to boot (which our boy has in spades).

he has work to do ... next up for him (wherever it may be) will prolly be the most anticipated race of the season.

still think he parachutes into either the Louisiana (vs Nadal/Silver Prospector) or Sunland Derby (<--- longshot, but possible path).

place finish moves him along. 

hard to see BB not splitting the dif between 6 & 9 furlongs first

 

[otb_lifer]

hard to see BB not splitting the dif between 6 & 9 furlongs first

will most likely see the Justy path (1m Alow) carded for BB at Santa Anita. 

if that goes smoovely, on to La. or your old stomper. 

 

[wikkidpissah]

will most likely see the Justy path (1m Alow) carded for BB at Santa Anita. 

if that goes smoovely, on to La. or your old stomper. 

proudest day of my sporting life - 12/10/82 in the winner's circle for my Booging Boo Boo (half-sister to southwest hero Bold Ego, claimed for $8500 that summer and quickly sold back to owners except for my small look-see share) beating colts in the Texas Derby @ Sunland.

 

[otb_lifer]

proudest day of my sporting life - 12/10/82 in the winner's circle for my Booging Boo Boo (half-sister to southwest hero Bold Ego, claimed for $8500 that summer and quickly sold back to owners except for my small look-see share) beating colts in the Texas Derby there.

was Smiff on the scene yet at that time?  when did he start to bug?

addendum to Charlatan - he could still ship East for Fla. Derby or the Wood, as well ... BB has to find path of least Derby pt resistance.

 

[wikkidpissah]

was Smiff on the scene yet at that time?  when did he start to bug?

addendum to Charlatan - he could still ship East for Fla. Derby or the Wood, as well ... BB has to find path of least Derby pt resistance.

Smitty came down to Santa Fe Downs that spring from LaMesa - tiny but legal track in tiny but illegal Raton NM - and we had him on mounts his 2nd wk down. IIRC, Boo Boo was ridden by Casey Lambert - of NM's first family of rodeo - the circuit's other hot bug that year.