*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (9 Viewers)

[Stoneworker]

Minerals deal info

https://x.com/JacquiHeinrich/status/1897037786273997062

Ukraine willing to sign minerals deal days after Trump-Zelenskyy agreement fell apart

The minerals deal with Ukraine was supposed to be signed last week, but an Oval Office spat scuttled the agreement.

www.cbsnews.com

White House pushes back on possible US-Ukraine mineral deal signing-reports

If signed, a mineral deal would strengthen relations between Washington and Kyiv despite the rift between Trump and Zelensky.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Zelensky faces a fateful choice as Ukraine reels from Trump’s aid suspension | CNN

Pausing military aid is the most damaging move the Trump administration can make to Ukraine’s war effort, and however opaque the immediate practical consequence may be, the psychological impact for Ukrainians has been immense and catastrophic.

amp.cnn.com

Ukraine’s stocks of critical artillery shells could run out by May or June following the pause, a Ukrainian official told CNN on Tuesday. The official said that the first ammunition crisis following the US military aid pause would involve Patriot air defense missiles, which could run out in a matter of weeks.

“We will adapt, but the question is how many additional people, and how much more territory, we lose while we do,” the official said.
Reactions from frontline troops noted the heavy role drones, or UAVs, play in holding back Russian assaults, but also the vital need for American-supplied air-defense missiles.
“Our weakness is in air-defense missiles – the Patriots,” said Yegor Firsov, the chief sergeant of a UAV strike platoon. “Even we, the military, would like to have our families, our rear, protected as much as possible when we are serving on the frontline. Eighty per cent of all destruction, from a tank to an enemy dugout, is carried out directly by drones. So, of course, we have a chance to survive together with Europe.”

Serhii Filimonov, commander of the 108th Separate Mechanized Battalion, or “Da Vinci Wolves,” which has been fighting outside the strategic town of Pokrovsk for nine months, said: “American support is critical for defending the sky, and financial assistance affects the economy and morale of society, which is also important for the frontline.”
A Ukrainian source told CNN the decision did not impact intelligence sharing, which is a lower-cost but impactful component of US support to Kyiv’s war effort.

Ukraine has firepower to fight on without US support – for now

Ukraine has been stockpiling arms and ammunition since before Donald Trump’s election victory last November, but over time the US president’s halting of military aid will be felt in air defence and other high-value weapons systems the US is uniquely placed to supply.
“They got a lot of kit in before the inauguration,” said a senior western official, adding that it would be enough to keep Ukraine in the fight “well beyond” what they described as the period during which ceasefire negotiations were expected to last.
A defence expert in Kyiv said Ukraine had a “safety margin of about six months” and could survive at least in the short term without US military assistance. “It will, of course, be much more difficult,” said Fedir Venislavsky, a Ukrainian MP and member of the Verkhovna Rada defence committee.

In other areas, European military support is comfortably beyond that of the US. Europe is this year expected to produce 2m artillery shells for Ukraine, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies thinktank, compared with 850,000 from the US. But even with the US supply included, this is still below the anticipated 4m shells produced by Russia.
The question is whether such discrepancies will be decisive in Moscow’s favour. Russia’s seizure of Avdiivka on the eastern front in early 2024 was achieved with a 5 to 1 artillery advantage, according to the Institute of the Study of War – while its advance towards Pokrovsk stalled after the summer, partly after that advantage was reduced to 1.5 to 1.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1896698930923982988

The Deputy Head of GUR Major General Vadym Skibitsky did another interview with some useful figures. He noted that the intensity of Russian combat operations and number of assaults has decreased recently, but said "a reduction in combat activity does not mean that the enemy's plans have changed. This time is being used for planning further offensives, training personnel, replenishing ammunition, and preparing for future assaults." He added that Russia is undergoing regrouping and replenishing combat losses, and that weather conditions also directly impact the pace of hostilities.

He says the Russian ground component in Ukraine and Kursk region is 620,000 of which more than 200,000 are soldiers in assault units and 35,000 from Rosgvardia.

He says Russia plans on recruiting 343,000 contract soldiers in 2025 but noted that Russia recruited more soldiers in previous years than was initially planned. He says Russia planned to recruit 375,000-380,000 soldiers in 2024 but ultimately recruited 440,000.

He says Russia fulfilled 107% of its recruitment plan for January, and that the share of contract soldiers recruited from prison or under investigation will increase from 15% in 2024 to 30% in 2025.

He says Russia plans to form new units in the Moscow, Leningrad, Southern, and Central Military Districts, including strengthening brigades into divisions.

https://x.com/revishvilig/status/1896997682247557366

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi shares interesting details about the dynamics of the war:

Discussions about potential negotiations impact the military, as they do everyone. However, our task is to stay focused and not succumb to weakness. 1/14
We are conducting active defense, particularly in sectors where the enemy has a numerical advantage, such as the Pokrovsk area, where Russian forces have outnumbered us 4.5 to 1. Notably, Russia expended more resources in 2024 than the previous two years (2022-2023) combined. 2/
Initially, Russian tactics were predictable. However, in 2024, they replaced their entire command structure, and unfortunately, this led to more creative and adaptive operations. 3/14
At times, they managed to catch us off guard by rapidly deploying reserves and exploiting both our successes and setbacks on the battlefield. 4/14
Operational efficiency—they executed their plans precisely, regardless of the conditions or circumstances. If a senior officer made a decision, that plan was strictly followed. 5/14
They now employ small assault groups, a tactic first used by the Wagner Group. This was uncommon for us initially, as in 2022, they advanced with entire battalions or battalion echelons. 6/14
This is a defining characteristic of modern warfare, especially in the context of widespread drone deployment of various types. We are now in an era of new-generation warfare, with a key feature being the use of small assault groups. 7/14
So, what should we do? First and foremost, we must effectively counter enemy drones. Currently, drones—particularly those with fiber-optic control—pose the greatest threat. We are implementing the necessary measures and developing counterstrategies. 8/14
We are developing intercepting drones with various types of weapons, including so-called "net shooters" and drones with 12mm calibers that physically destroy enemy drones. 9/14
These drones use artificial intelligence to automatically lock onto or destroy targets either through direct collision or detonation. So, there are already solutions to this problem. 10/14
Throughout the war, the armed forces have reached a point where they are undergoing reorganization—not a reform, but a structural transition. The shift to a corps-based system will streamline command structures while establishing permanent corps-level units and leadership bodies.
This transformation will enable corps commanders to conduct independent operations, ensuring self-sufficiency in specific frontline or defensive sectors. This is a positive and necessary step—something long worked toward. 12/14
Temporary command structures and ad hoc leadership teams often result in frequent personnel changes, bringing in officers with varying experiences and skill sets. This creates a disconnect between commanders and their forces, weakening their understanding of unit dynamics. 13/14
As a result, some decisions may lack a solid foundation due to unfamiliarity with the unique strengths, limitations, and operational nuances of the units under their command. 14/14

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Just to say thank you to @Don't Toews Me for keeping this news focused so long. It's why it's been able to survive this long.

Can't back this post enough, wholeheartedly agree

This thread has persevered for 3 years and I try not to come in here when I am "amp'd" up from something on TV
The folks like @Don't Toews Me have done a terrific job

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Just to say thank you to @Don't Toews Me for keeping this news focused so long. It's why it's been able to survive this long.

I appreciate that, sir. I've been slacking as of late here, but luckily many others were keeping this continually updated. And a big thanks to you and the moderator team for allowing this thread to continue.

 

[Zeppelin]

Just to say thank you to @Don't Toews Me for keeping this news focused so long. It's why it's been able to survive this long.

I appreciate that, sir. I've been slacking as of late here, but luckily many others were keeping this continually updated. And a big thanks to you and the moderator team for allowing this thread to continue.

And out of respect to you, the other posters that follow the rules, and @Joe Bryant and the moderators, if I see something political I'm reporting it. This is a very important thread and we can't let it be locked because of a few posters that go political.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

US cuts off intelligence sharing with Ukraine

The US has cut off intelligence-sharing with Kyiv in a move that could seriously hamper the Ukrainian military’s ability to target Russian forces, according to officials familiar with the matter.

NATO armies unprepared for drone wars, Ukraine commander warns

NATO armed forces are not ready for a modern drone war, the military commander in charge of Ukraine's unmanned systems warned, three years into a conflict with Russia in which both sides are pushing for a technological edge.
Kyiv is striving to stay ahead of the enemy, employing artificial intelligence, deploying more ground drones and testing lasers to bring down Russian unmanned aerial vehicles, said Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi, head of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces.
Speaking in a newly outfitted office for the recently founded Unmanned Systems Forces, the location of which Reuters was asked not to disclose, Sukharevskyi laid out the leaps and bounds in which drone warfare had advanced since the start of the invasion in 2022, and the ways in which it upended the established doctrines of war.
"From what I see and hear, not a single NATO army is ready to resist the cascade of drones," Sukharevskyi told Reuters in a recent interview.
He said NATO should recognise the economic advantage of drones, which often cost far less to build than the conventional weaponry required to down them.
"It's just elementary mathematics. How much does a missile that shoots down a (Russian) Shahed (drone) cost? And how much does it cost to deploy a ship, a plane and an air defence system to fire at it?"

Ukraine has used pickup trucks with mounted machine guns and military aviation to down drones more efficiently, and Kyiv is working on other options such as using FPV interceptor drones and laser weapons.
Ukraine successfully shot down fixed-wing drones in testing using a laser, Sukharevskyi said, adding that the goal was to roll out laser systems in combat, although he did not specify timelines.
Sukharevskyi said his units were now using a mothership drone that could carry two FPV drones up to 70 km (43 miles) before releasing them and acting as a relay station for their communications.
He estimated that there were thousands of unmanned ground vehicles operating on the frontlines, meaning fewer soldiers were needed to go to dangerous areas for logistics or combat.
On the battlefield, both sides have adopted extensive electronic warfare as they seek to jam signal links to drones in the air, rendering traditional drones inoperable.
This has led to a boom in drones using automated targeting, which guides a drone to its target through artificial intelligence after the pilot selects it through the drone's camera. However, the decision to strike must be made by a human and not by AI, he said.
Sukharevskyi believes at least half of Ukraine's frontline drone units are now using such systems to some degree, and that the majority of drones in combat would eventually end up using this system.

How Soon Could Ukraine’s Forces ‘Start to Buckle’ Without U.S. Weapons?

“Ukraine definitely has a safety margin of about six months even without systematic assistance from the United States, but it will be much more difficult, of course,” one lawmaker, Fedir Venislavskyi, told the news agency RBC-Ukraine on Tuesday.
Some analysts say they think even that may be overly optimistic.
“Certainly, by the four-month time period, their forces would start to buckle, because they just wouldn’t have enough munitions and equipment to replace what they’ve lost,” said one of the authors of the Center for Strategic and International Studies study, Mark F. Cancian, a former White House weapons strategist.

Most French support assistance to Ukraine, sending peacekeepers, poll shows

Roughly two-thirds of the French favor maintaining or increasing aid to Ukraine and sending peacekeepers after the end of hostilities, BFM TV reported on March 4, citing a survey by the Elabe Institute.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1897150245659988179

First cockpit footage released from a Ukrainian Air Force F-16AM Fighting Falcon.

Seen here on a combat air patrol over western Ukraine, armed with a mix of AIM-9L/M Sidewinders.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1897193459020390665

Updated map showing Ukrainian advances near Kupyansk and Uspenivka.

France warms to idea of seizing Russian assets in Europe

France is warming up to the possibility of seizing Russian frozen assets to help Ukraine, said an official with direct knowledge of talks within the French government and between Paris and Berlin.

The official, who was granted anonymity to speak freely on a delicate matter, said members of the French government have privately discussed seizing the assets, including with their German counterparts, and potentially using them to guarantee loans for Kyiv.

European authorities froze around €200 billion of Russian assets held in Brussels-based financial institution Euroclear after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. G7 countries agreed last year to use profits coming from those assets to back a $50 billion loan to Ukraine, but ruled out using the underlying assets directly as it risks breaching international law.
French ministers have also publicly rejected the possibility for legal reasons, as those assets are the property of Russia's central bank. Economy Minister Eric Lombard told Franceinfo that as France is not directly at war with Russia, "these assets cannot be seized as this would be contrary to international agreement."

Baltic and Nordic countries, Russia’s neighbors, think the money should be handed to Ukraine immediately. France, however, is only considering using those assets to guarantee more loans to support Ukraine, according to the official quoted earlier in this story.

High-level French officials have in recent days publicly hinted the €200 billion could provide Brussels and Kyiv with powerful leverage over the Kremlin in any peace negotiations, Washington-led or otherwise. The Financial Times earlier reported on talks between France, Germany and the United Kingdom to use the frozen assets as a way to get Russia to respect a peace deal. However, Macron's office denied such discussions had taken place.

EU eyes €200B secret weapon as Trump dominates Ukraine peace talks

“If you were to unfreeze [the assets] and give [them] to Ukraine, you don't have it anymore and you can't use it as a bargaining chip,” said an EU diplomat from the latter camp who, like others quoted in this article, was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive talks.

The “No” camp argues that unfreezing the funds now would undermine the EU’s leverage in peace talks with Russia.

Following his meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Riyadh last week, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested the EU will need to be involved in peace talks “at some point” because of the sanctions it has imposed on Russia.

European countries recognize that the billions of euros in frozen Russian assets give them additional influence over the Kremlin.

“If they [Russia] definitely want to get the money back, then they have to give something in return for it,” the EU diplomat quoted above said.

Europe Gets Serious About Defense Thanks to Trump’s Retreat

One final indication of the sea change in European attitudes is leaders’ growing advocacy of tapping the nearly 300 billion euros in frozen Russian state assets. Since just after the start of the war, those reserves, belonging to the Russian Central Bank, have been frozen, but Europeans had been extremely reluctant to seize them outright, fearing both reprisals from Moscow and an erosion of the eurozone’s financial appeal.
Yet even once-cautious countries such as Germany and Belgium are growing comfortable with the idea of using Russia’s frozen reserves to immediately inject tens of billions of euros into Ukraine assistance.

 

[Redwes25]

US cuts off intelligence sharing with Ukraine

The US has cut off intelligence-sharing with Kyiv in a move that could seriously hamper the Ukrainian military’s ability to target Russian forces, according to officials familiar with the matter.

This one is huge news and major hit to the war effort. Targeting efforts with more of our advanced weapons have been very intertwined.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Just to say thank you to @Don't Toews Me for keeping this news focused so long. It's why it's been able to survive this long.

Joe, much love, but to be clear, the whole thread is political, as are the economy & market threads. They’re entirely political. What’s not happening is people aren’t discussing causes, reasons & policies. Much love & respect to Toews, I posted in the Russo-Ukraine War thread regularly from 2014 & I am sincerely thankful & appreciative he informs people here & how he does it. & it’s good, the key is people don’t slag each other over claims, accusations & theories. It’s entirely polite & respectful, which is the goal. But it is political, inherently. Take care, much love & Cheers.

 

[Zeppelin]

Just to say thank you to @Don't Toews Me for keeping this news focused so long. It's why it's been able to survive this long.

Joe, much love, but to be clear, the whole thread is political, as are the economy & market threads. They’re entirely political. What’s not happening is people aren’t discussing causes, reasons & policies. Much love & respect to Toews, I posted in the Russo-Ukraine War thread regularly from 2014 & I am sincerely thankful & appreciative he informs people here & how he does it. & it’s good, the key is people don’t slag each other over claims, accusations & theories. It’s entirely polite & respectful, which is the goal. But it is political, inherently. Take care, much love & Cheers.

I completely agree with this. The political facts by themselves aren't the problem in my opinion and are necessary in order to get the information needed to understand everything, such as Trump meeting with Zelenskyy. That by itself almost had to be mentioned.

The problem is when people make partisan political comments that aren't necessary and start the back and forth crap that derail threads. If everyone could just stick to the facts we should be ok.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Just to say thank you to @Don't Toews Me for keeping this news focused so long. It's why it's been able to survive this long.

Joe, much love, but to be clear, the whole thread is political, as are the economy & market threads. They’re entirely political. What’s not happening is people aren’t discussing causes, reasons & policies. Much love & respect to Toews, I posted in the Russo-Ukraine War thread regularly from 2014 & I am sincerely thankful & appreciative he informs people here & how he does it. & it’s good, the key is people don’t slag each other over claims, accusations & theories. It’s entirely polite & respectful, which is the goal. But it is political, inherently. Take care, much love & Cheers.

Yes. Keeping this news focused has been the key.

And we're currently, at least for now, able to have a couple of threads where we do that. We've proven repeatedly we were unable to keep it to just news discussion without spiraling down to snark and condescension when it was the political forum.

The few threads we have now continue work mostly because people help us moderate and keep the thread on track.

For instance, a poster yesterday tried to do a similar "news only" thread for President Trump's speech. That went exactly as you'd expect and quickly was off the rails.

But for this thread, we do pretty well. Although not perfect. A poster was recently removed from here for taking political shots. But if we can keep it news focused, and people can help with moderating by reporting posts as was said above, this one has a chance to survive.

 

[Dickies]

Just to say thank you to @Don't Toews Me for keeping this news focused so long. It's why it's been able to survive this long.

Joe, much love, but to be clear, the whole thread is political, as are the economy & market threads. They’re entirely political. What’s not happening is people aren’t discussing causes, reasons & policies. Much love & respect to Toews, I posted in the Russo-Ukraine War thread regularly from 2014 & I am sincerely thankful & appreciative he informs people here & how he does it. & it’s good, the key is people don’t slag each other over claims, accusations & theories. It’s entirely polite & respectful, which is the goal. But it is political, inherently. Take care, much love & Cheers.

Nice to see your name pop up in here. Hope you are doing well.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Just to say thank you to @Don't Toews Me for keeping this news focused so long. It's why it's been able to survive this long.

Joe, much love, but to be clear, the whole thread is political, as are the economy & market threads. They’re entirely political. What’s not happening is people aren’t discussing causes, reasons & policies. Much love & respect to Toews, I posted in the Russo-Ukraine War thread regularly from 2014 & I am sincerely thankful & appreciative he informs people here & how he does it. & it’s good, the key is people don’t slag each other over claims, accusations & theories. It’s entirely polite & respectful, which is the goal. But it is political, inherently. Take care, much love & Cheers.

Nice to see your name pop up in here. Hope you are doing well.

Hi Dickies & to all at FBGs! I am well and good. Went through some stuff as we all do. I still read here, and I read in general, and I manage my one remaining FF team in my league of 20+ years. Honestly this place is too engrossing and very enjoyable, sorry if I just disappeared, had to focus. I am going to Netherlands and Belgium soon and I miss how great this place is for insights on things like that so I may post again soon. The community here is terrific, a great bunch of guys (& at least one great lady, Krista) who I respect and have enjoyed interacting with, obviously including you. Cheers!

 

[Jayrod]

I am going to Netherlands and Belgium soon

I'm insanely jealous.

Spending substantial time in Benelux is a bucket list item of mine.

 

[Dezbelief]

Russia bombards Ukraine as Trump touts prospect of 'beautiful' peace deal to Congress

Ukraine said Russia launched 181 drones into the country overnight.

abcnews.go.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

U.S. Suspends Intelligence Sharing With Ukraine

“I think on the military front and the intelligence front, the pause that allowed that to happen, I think will go away, and I think we’ll work shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine as we have to push back on the aggression that’s there,” Ratcliffe said. “But to put the world in a better place for these peace negotiations to move forward again, President Trump is going to hold everyone accountable to drive peace around the world.”

Trump officials say US paused intelligence sharing with Ukraine but signal it may not last long after fiery meeting

“We are pausing, assessing, looking at everything across our security relationship,” national security adviser Mike Waltz told CBS News, asked directly about intelligence-sharing with Kyiv. The Trump administration had already announced a freeze in weapons deliveries to Ukraine, part of the White House effort to attempt to pressure Kyiv into a swift end to a war it didn’t start.
Still, Waltz told reporters after the interview that he spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart over the phone this morning, and he projected optimism on the state of talks since Zelensky issued a statement yesterday saying that he is ready to negotiate peace.

One US military official said that the US is now offering fewer surveillance flights to the Ukrainians, as well as less satellite coverage – both of which are essential to Ukraine’s ability to defend its cities against Russian missile attacks.
But underscoring the fluid nature of the situation, as recently as Tuesday, another US military official in the region said that American military contact with the Ukrainians, including some intelligence sharing, was continuing.

US Freezes Some Ukraine Intelligence Sharing as Pressure Mounts

The halt covers all the intelligence except for what Ukraine needs to protect its forces, according to a US official familiar with the decision, who spoke under the condition of anonymity.

U.S. pauses sharing the intelligence Ukraine uses for strikes on Russia

A U.S. defense official confirmed on Wednesday that most intelligence-sharing via military channels with Ukraine has been suspended. It was not immediately clear what the exceptions to that decision were, but they may include information related to self-defense.
Another person familiar with the pause said the Trump administration had halted all intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, other than information needed for “force protection” — protecting Ukrainian troops under attack. Both spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

A Ukrainian military officer familiar with operations of the long-range multiple rocket launching system known as HIMARS, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak freely about classified intelligence, said that for roughly the past month, at least one of the Ukrainian groups responsible for launching rockets from the U.S. systems has not received coordinates to strike more than about 40 miles beyond the line of contact between Russian and Ukrainian forces.
Such intelligence had allowed Ukraine to use the U.S.-provided HIMARS systems to launch ATACMS, a longer-range U.S. guided missile system, and strike targets deep inside occupied Ukrainian territory or inside of Russia. The strikes have disabled some Russian air defense systems and forced Moscow to move its logistical hubs hundreds of miles from the front lines, which has slowed down Russian resupply operations.

C.I.A. Director Says U.S. Has Paused Intelligence Sharing With Ukraine

A U.S. official said the pause stopped all military targeting information from being shared with Ukraine. A senior Ukrainian official said the pause in sharing would make strikes on Russian forces more difficult, but Kyiv’s military had access to other satellite imagery.
The pause also affected some intelligence about advance warning of drone and missile strikes that Russia has been carrying out against military and civilian targets, according to a person briefed on the pause.

Russian gas continues to enter French ports

Russian gas deliveries have already fallen sharply, mainly due to the Kremlin's decision to shut down some of its pipelines. In 2024, the volume was almost three times less than the 150 billion cubic meters of 2021: Less than 20% of all gas imports into the European Union (EU), compared with over 40% previously.
Unlike Norway, Russia no longer supplies any gas to France by pipeline. But, thanks to its five LNG terminals, France remains a "major gateway" for liquefied natural gas (LNG) imported by ship into Europe, as NaTran points out. Some 34% of this LNG imported into French ports over the past year came from Russia, according to estimates by the Kpler firm published on February 18 by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. This corresponds to more than 80 TWh, even more than in 2023. According to this source, the US (38%) and Algeria (17%) complete the top three.
At this stage, it's impossible to know exactly what proportion of French consumption is accounted for by Russian gas. According to Sandrine Meunier, NaTran's director general, the "traceability" of LNG is a "complex issue." This is because some deliveries, by pipeline or ship, simply transit through France. In 2024, according to the French transmission system operator, 123 TWh net were delivered to networks in neighboring countries. For example, through the Dunkirk LNG terminal, operated by Belgium's Fluxys and connected to Belgium's pipelines. When contacted, the French Ministry for Industry and Energy would not give any details.

 

[CGRdrJoe]

Just to say thank you to @Don't Toews Me for keeping this news focused so long. It's why it's been able to survive this long.

Joe, much love, but to be clear, the whole thread is political, as are the economy & market threads. They’re entirely political. What’s not happening is people aren’t discussing causes, reasons & policies. Much love & respect to Toews, I posted in the Russo-Ukraine War thread regularly from 2014 & I am sincerely thankful & appreciative he informs people here & how he does it. & it’s good, the key is people don’t slag each other over claims, accusations & theories. It’s entirely polite & respectful, which is the goal. But it is political, inherently. Take care, much love & Cheers.

Yes. Keeping this news focused has been the key.

And we're currently, at least for now, able to have a couple of threads where we do that. We've proven repeatedly we were unable to keep it to just news discussion without spiraling down to snark and condescension when it was the political forum.

The few threads we have now continue work mostly because people help us moderate and keep the thread on track.

For instance, a poster yesterday tried to do a similar "news only" thread for President Trump's speech. That went exactly as you'd expect and quickly was off the rails.

But for this thread, we do pretty well. Although not perfect. A poster was recently removed from here for taking political shots. But if we can keep it news focused, and people can help with moderating by reporting posts as was said above, this one has a chance to survive.

to be fair with the being a federal employee is sweet thread it became more emotional than political for those of us that are federal employee's. Lashing out at things that are political to some but everyday life for us is I guess what killed it but we weren't trying to step over the line but to vent with our fellow posters.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Just to say thank you to @Don't Toews Me for keeping this news focused so long. It's why it's been able to survive this long.

Joe, much love, but to be clear, the whole thread is political, as are the economy & market threads. They’re entirely political. What’s not happening is people aren’t discussing causes, reasons & policies. Much love & respect to Toews, I posted in the Russo-Ukraine War thread regularly from 2014 & I am sincerely thankful & appreciative he informs people here & how he does it. & it’s good, the key is people don’t slag each other over claims, accusations & theories. It’s entirely polite & respectful, which is the goal. But it is political, inherently. Take care, much love & Cheers.

Yes. Keeping this news focused has been the key.

And we're currently, at least for now, able to have a couple of threads where we do that. We've proven repeatedly we were unable to keep it to just news discussion without spiraling down to snark and condescension when it was the political forum.

The few threads we have now continue work mostly because people help us moderate and keep the thread on track.

For instance, a poster yesterday tried to do a similar "news only" thread for President Trump's speech. That went exactly as you'd expect and quickly was off the rails.

But for this thread, we do pretty well. Although not perfect. A poster was recently removed from here for taking political shots. But if we can keep it news focused, and people can help with moderating by reporting posts as was said above, this one has a chance to survive.

to be fair with the being a federal employee is sweet thread it became more emotional than political for those of us that are federal employee's. Lashing out at things that are political to some but everyday life for us is I guess what killed it but we weren't trying to step over the line but to vent with our fellow posters.

Understood.

Hoping for good outcomes for you and those affected by changes.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I just spent this Wednesday working hard reading about Russian aggression since the fall of the USSR.

It's actually pretty amazing how predictable the playbook is.

• Invade
• Sign some half assed peace deal
• Come back a few years later thrice as hard when the rest of the world is tired of hearing about it
• ???
• Profit

It's that exact process on repetition that played a big part in Putin's rise in popularity/consolidation of power in the first place.

So I totally get why Ukraine rolls their eyes at any "peace talks" and "diplomacy" that don't involve any international assurances that Russia won't just be back in 3 years thrice as hard, at which point the rest of the world will roll their eyes and say "ugh not this Ukraine thing again, I thought we were done with this, I'm not getting involved again I guess we just need to let it happen" while Russia invades from their new forward bases in their newly ceded territory that they totally promised they wouldn't use to attack from.

I think any formal guarantees that they can't join NATO in the future would be an instant dealbreaker too, as it seems like many of these countries are operating under the assumption that their only realistic long-term options are to get into NATO or get re-conquered by Russia.

 

[Dezbelief]

Agreed

 

[Don't Toews Me]

CEO of Eutelsat says they can replace the # of terminals in "a couple of months": Eutelsat Says Talks on Replacing Starlink in Ukraine Gain Steam

The company is already working in Ukraine and has thousands terminals there currently, but not all are on the network, Berneke said. It would need a couple of months to provide 40,000, she said. That’s about how many Starlink terminals are used in the country.

Explainer: Could Europe's Eutelsat help to replace Starlink in Ukraine?

Eutelsat already supports government and institutional communications in Ukraine, and told Reuters that it can provide an alternative for certain government and defence applications.
Since its merger in 2023 with Britain's OneWeb, Eutelsat controls the only operational global-coverage constellation, besides Starlink, of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO).
Starlink's more than 7,000 LEO satellites, suited to real-time communication, allow it to reach more users around the world and offer higher data speeds.
But Eutelsat says that, even with only 630 or so LEO satellites, backed up by 35 linked satellites in higher, geostationary orbit, it offers the same capabilities as Starlink in Europe.
Starlink promises broadband at up to 200 megabits per second, Eutelsat 150.
OneWeb terminals, however, cost as much as $10,000, plus a monthly subscription price. Starlink charges Ukrainian users a one-time payment of $589 in addition to a monthly subscription of $95-$440, depending on the usage.
It is not known whether any donor would offer to fund more Ukrainian OneWeb subscriptions. France and Britain, which are spearheading a peace deal to present to the U.S., hold a combined 24.8% stake in Eutelsat Group.

As Trump suspends military aid, what are the chokeholds on Ukraine?

The Starlink satellite network is paid for by Poland, but controlled by the Americans. The Ukrainians have produced workarounds before—not least during operations in Russia’s Kursk region, where Starlink systems are mostly disabled. Here, engineers used mobile technologies and drone relays to provide soldiers with communications. A Ukrainian official says a back-up using similar technologies is in the works. “We have one that could roll out in days, a more extensive solution in three months.” But the switch would be difficult and leave the Ukrainians without one of their key battlefield advantages. Lieutenant Kishak, who led some operations in Kursk, says the alternative systems are inferior in important aspects, not least their susceptibility to Russian electronic warfare.

Most vital of all is American intelligence, which is provided via NATO arrangements. This is what allows the country’s armed forces to see all manner of threats: Russian planes when they are about to strike; Russian forces as they prepare to launch new invasions; the flow of Russian, Iranian and North Korean weapons; the stores, logistics and operational hubs of the Russian war machine. It allows Ukraine to guide, in real time, rockets and drones to targets inside Russia. Ukrainian drones can see in the short distance behind the current front lines. But American eyes let them see deep. American officials in Europe Command (EUCOM), which oversees all American forces on the continent, use artificial intelligence to fuse data from satellite images, electronic intelligence and other sources to identify high-value targets. A Western military official says Europe might be able to provide some of the capability—Britain, for example, routinely flies Rivet Joint surveillance aircraft over the Black Sea—but not quite as quickly. “With this kind of warfare, it’s all about timing. Without US intelligence, Ukraine will struggle with dynamic targeting,” a phrase that refers to seeing and striking new targets as they appear.

France to share intelligence with Ukraine

France is offering intelligence to Ukraine, French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said on Thursday.

"We have intelligence resources that we use to help the Ukrainians," Lecornu told radio station France Inter.

Lecornu said it would be "more complicated" for the United Kingdom to follow France's lead because it is in an intelligence community with the United States.

"Our intelligence is sovereign... with our own capacities," he added. "We are passing this on to the Ukrainians."

US suspends intelligence sharing with Ukraine

The UK has also reportedly been blocked from sharing any intelligence provided by the US with its Ukrainian allies.

Macron to convene European army chiefs willing to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine

French President Emmanuel Macron said in a televised address to the nation on Wednesday he plans next week to hold a meeting of army chiefs from European countries willing to send troops to Ukraine after any eventual peace deal with Russia.

Turkey ready to send troops to Ukraine if necessary, source says

Turkey, with the second largest army in NATO after the United States, could contribute to a potential peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, a Turkish defence ministry source said on Wednesday.
"The issue of contributing to a mission will be considered if deemed necessary for establishing regional stability and peace, and will be assessed mutually with all relevant parties," the source told reporters in Ankara.

The Turkish source, requesting anonymity, said discussions on a Turkish deployment remained conceptual, with no concrete decisions yet made.
"The concept has not yet been clearly defined."
If Turkey were to deploy troops, the source emphasised that a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia would first need to be declared, and initial deployments should involve non-combatant units to monitor the ceasefire.

Russia dismisses European peacekeeper idea, says Macron threatened Moscow

Lavrov also dismissed European ideas about sending peacekeepers from NATO member states to Ukraine, saying that Moscow would consider such a deployment to be a NATO presence in Ukraine and that Moscow would not allow it.

European-led Ukraine air protection plan could halt Russian missile attacks

A European air force of 120 fighter jets could be deployed to secure the skies from Russian attacks on Kyiv and western Ukraine without necessarily provoking a wider conflict with Moscow, according to a plan drawn up by military experts.
Sky Shield, its proponents argue, would be a European-led air protection zone operated separately from Nato to halt Russian cruise missile and drone attacks on cities and infrastructure, potentially operating as part of the “truce in the sky” proposed by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, this week.
It would cover Ukraine’s three operating nuclear power plants and the cities of Odesa and Lviv, but not the frontline or the east of the country – and, according to a newly published paper, it could “achieve greater military, political, and socioeconomic impact than 10,000 European ground troops”.
Supporters include Philip Breedlove, a former US Air Force general and Nato supreme commander in Europe, and Sir Richard Shirreff, a former British army general and deputy Nato supreme commander at the beginning of the last decade, as well as former Polish president Aleksander Kwaśniewski.

It is understood Sky Shield has been drawn up by former RAF planners working in conjunction with Ukraine’s armed forces, and it has been canvassed before European defence ministries. However, there has been no real appetite from European leaders to sanction patrols of Ukrainian skies while the war is ongoing.
Those involved believe the pace of events in the last week means that ideas about protecting some of Ukraine’s airspace can now get a fresh hearing, though the plan also serves to highlight how important and efficient air protection would be as part of providing security guarantees to Kyiv in the event of a ceasefire.
The concern in western political circles is that it would risk placing fighter jets from Nato member states directly in conflict with Russia, and could lead to a dangerous escalation of hostilities if a jet from either side was attacked or shot down.
However, backers of the scheme argue the “risk to Sky Shield pilots is low” because Moscow has not dared to fly its combat jets beyond the existing front lines since early 2022. The de facto separation from Russian aircraft would be “more than 200km” according to the scheme’s designers.

 

[D_House]

Reuters:

Trump to revoke legal status for 240,000 Ukrainians as US steps up deportations​

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-plans-revoke-legal-status-ukrainians-who-fled-us-sources-say-2025-03-06/

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine Without America

How Kyiv can persist in the face of a hostile Washington.

www.foreignaffairs.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Rubio says Ukraine conflict is part of US-Russia proxy war

https://thehill.com/homenews/5179806-russia-us-proxy-war-ukraine/

 

[Chadstroma]

What is Ukraine’s new peace plan that Zelenskyy presented to Trump?

Zelenskyy says he is eager to negotiate peace, a day after Trump moved to pause military aid to Ukraine.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia Is Not Winning

At the current rate, Russia will control all of Ukraine in about 118 years.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Exclusive | Russia Is Chasing a Deal to Keep Its Military Bases in Syria

Russia has sought a rapprochement with Syria’s new rulers, including with an injection of cash for Syria’s central bank.

www.wsj.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine war: Can Europe deter Russia without US military?

Donald Trump will not get involved in security guarantees for Ukraine, but can Europe fill the gap?

www.bbc.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Belgium postpones F-16 delivery to Ukraine for a year​

Belgium has postponed the delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine until 2026. However, spare parts may be provided as early as this year, according to Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever.

“I do not rule out that F-16s will be sent to Ukraine this year for spare parts,” the Belgian Prime Minister said.

At the same time, he said, combat-ready F-16s could be delivered to Ukraine next year.

Earlier, the media reported that Ukraine would not receive the promised Belgian F-16 fighters this year. This is due to the lack of sufficiently trained pilots.

It was claimed that this was due to a delay in the delivery of the first F-35 aircraft to Belgium.

F-16 fighters transfer to Ukraine

In 2023, Ukraine and its allies created an aviation coalition to provide Ukraine with F-16 combat aircraft. According to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine needs at least 128 F-16s.

Last summer, the first F-16s from the partners arrived in Ukraine. It is not known for certain how many planes Ukraine received. The first F-16s were delivered to Ukraine by the Netherlands and Denmark.

Ukraine already has delivery schedules for F-16s from partner countries, but they are long. At the same time, it became known that Belgium would provide Ukraine with 30 fighters by the end of 2028.

Currently, Ukrainian pilots continue training on F-16s. Training takes place in several countries, including the United States.

 

[Chadstroma]

About 20 countries could join Ukraine coalition, UK says​

About 20 countries are interested in joining a "coalition of the willing" to help Ukraine, according to UK officials.

It is not thought every one of the countries, which are largely from Europe and the Commonwealth, would necessarily send troops but some could provide other support.

The plan, spearheaded by the UK and France, was set out by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer at this weekend's summit of 18 European and Canadian leaders, and would work to uphold any ceasefire in Russia's war on Ukraine.

Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said such a move "can't be allowed" because it would amount to the "direct, official and unveiled involvement of Nato members in the war against Russia".

It comes as Kyiv attempts to mend relations with Washington after the US paused its military aid to Ukraine and intelligence sharing in a bid to bring President Zelensky to the negotiating table.

Speaking on a visit to a defence firm in Merseyside, Sir Keir said it would be a "big mistake" to think that "all we've got to do is wait for a deal now" between Ukraine and Russia, which US President Donald Trump claims to be attempting to broker.

The PM said it would be crucial that "if there is a deal - and we don't know there will be - that we defend the deal", which meant ensuring Ukraine was "in the strongest position".

But the PM stressed that defence plan should be made "in conjunction with the United States... it's that ability to work with the United States and our European partners that has kept the peace for 80 years now".

It is understood a meeting of officials was held on Tuesday to discuss providing security guarantees following any peace deal.

British officials said it was "early days" but welcomed what they described the expressions of interest in joining a "coalition of the willing" as a "highly positive step".

The Prime Minister's Deputy Official Spokesman said the government had been "very clear that it is for Europe and for the UK to step up and I think you are seeing evidence of that consistently."

The UK and France have proposed a one-month truce "in the air, at sea and on energy infrastructure", backed up by a coalition of supportive western countries, but this has been rejected by Russia.

The UK announced a £1.6bn missile deal for Ukraine on Sunday and has now signed another deal with an Anglo-American security firm Anduril, to provide Ukraine with more advanced attack drones.

Defence Secretary John Healey is preparing for talks with his US counterpart Pete Hegseth in Washington DC as the Ministry of Defence (MoD) confirmed the latest deal, worth nearly £30m and backed by the International Fund for Ukraine.

Healey said: "The UK has already provided more than 10,000 drones to Ukraine's armed forces, which have proved vital in disrupting Russian troop advances and targeting positions behind the front line.

"With a £2.26bn loan from seized Russian assets, plus £1.6 billion worth of air defence missiles announced for Ukraine in the last week, the UK is continuing to show leadership in securing a lasting peace for Ukraine."

The deal will see Kyiv supplied with cutting-edge Altius 600m and Altius 700m systems - designed to monitor an area before striking targets that enter it - to help tackle Russian aggression in the Black Sea.

The announcement comes amid concerns that the US move to halt intelligence-sharing with Ukraine will affect the country's ability to use western weaponry and deprive it of advanced information about incoming threats.

'Clear and present danger'​

In Brussels, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, held an emergency defence summit as the EU grapples with the prospect of Trump reducing security assistance for Europe.

Proposing an 800 billion euro (£670 billion) defence package, von der Leyen said this was a "watershed moment", adding: "Europe faces a clear and present danger and therefore Europe has to be able to protect itself, to defend itself, as we have to put Ukraine in a position to protect itself and to push for a lasting and just peace."


European Union leaders met Zelensky, who thanked them for their support, and said: "We are very thankful that we are not alone. These are not just words, we feel it."

Turkey indicated Thursday it could play a part in peacekeeping efforts, while Ireland's Prime Minister Micheal Martin said Irish troops could be involved in peacekeeping but would not be deployed in any "deterrent force".

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has also said he is "open" to sending troops to Ukraine as peacekeepers.

On Thursday Russia rejected calls for a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine, with foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova telling reporters: "Firm agreements on a final settlement are needed. Without all that, some kind of respite is absolutely unacceptable."

 

[BobbyLayne]

Have read and listened to several x-spurts in the past few days who feel Ukraine has the capacity to go on without U.S. aid or intelligence.

For one thing, there are back channels. EU allies can buy from the U.S. and give to the Ukrainians. Intelligence is shared with the UK, they will in turn share with Ukraine. Gums things up and means it will take longer, more people will die, but it doesn’t mean they have to capitulate.

In terms of specific assets, Russia has close to 10:1 advantage at the beginning of the conflict. That is thought to have narrowed to about 2:1 because Ukraine is producing their own. In terms of drones - one of the primary weapons for both sides - they manufacture so many they have a surplus and have contemplated exporting or trading some of them.

The EU does not have a missile defense system comparable to the Patriot. They’ll be an obvious gap there. Both sides have attrition issues, doesn’t seem to be a major advantage for either country. But they’ve still got more than 1.2M armed forces and 2.7m reservists.

It’s worth remembering Ukraine stopped the Russian advances on their own during the first year, before significant aid arrived. The war has been basically a stalemate since their respective offensives failed in 2023.

The lack of U.S. support will be felt. Seems like a lot of folks have the opinion it won’t be fatal.

 

[zoobird]

Rubio says Ukraine conflict is part of US-Russia proxy war

https://thehill.com/homenews/5179806-russia-us-proxy-war-ukraine/

I'm wondering if someone can parse this for me. My initial impression on seeing this headline was that this is very positive for Ukraine...that Rubio is saying that Russia is the enemy of the US. After reading the article I was much less sure that it should be interpreted that way, and took as a potential lead-in to something along the lines of 'since this is a US war with Russia, we get to decide how and when to end it...not Ukraine'. Am I overthinking this? Not looking for an opinion of whether this is a good or bad decision for Rubio to say it...but more like "what does he mean by this?"

 

[beer 30]

It’s worth remembering Ukraine stopped the Russian advances on their own during the first year, before significant aid arrived. The war has been basically a stalemate since their respective offensives failed in 2023.

While true, I wonder how many top tier troops from both sides were sacrificed in early stages of the war giving rise to the current stalemate we see now because both sides have attrited (that a word?) their best and brightest so they've taken to ground.

 

[BobbyLayne]

It’s worth remembering Ukraine stopped the Russian advances on their own during the first year, before significant aid arrived. The war has been basically a stalemate since their respective offensives failed in 2023.

While true, I wonder how many top tier troops from both sides were sacrificed in early stages of the war giving rise to the current stalemate we see now because both sides have attrited (that a word?) their best and brightest so they've taken to ground.

At this stage, a lot of this war is being fought remotely - missiles and drones. Not quite comparable to WWII or Vietnam in terms of how replacements / lowered standards were a serious issue for the U.S.

You could be right. Ukraine might be experiencing that somewhat. But I don’t think Russia has ever had a best & brightest. They have nothing comparable to the NCO leadership model that is the core structure of our armed forces.

Also, the kleptocracy made a lot of substandard equipment. We’ve known this for decades, they don’t have the economy or internal command structure to maintain readiness. They half-*** their way through exercises & training. Bites them in the butt every time they have boots on the ground (Afghanistan, Chechnya, Syria, Ukraine.)

Nobody wants to find out if it’s true, but there’s considerable evidence very few of their nukes are operational. Most of them are 40-50 years old, and their entire defense budget is always lower than the amount we spend solely on maintaining our (smaller) stockpile.

Putin has threatened to use nukes 40+ times. They released the previously classified Czar Bomba footage just before they invaded the Crimea peninsula in 2014. I don’t think they’d ever use them, and I’m not sure they would work as designed. But the threat, the mere existence of 4K warheads, is enough of a deterrent.

Russia is incredibly subpar as an effective fighting force. They might continue to pick off sovereign neighbors in the decades ahead, but they don’t want all the smoke. We showed Wagner in Syria what happens when you go up against well trained professionals with combined arms.

 

[Chadstroma]

Have read and listened to several x-spurts in the past few days who feel Ukraine has the capacity to go on without U.S. aid or intelligence.

For one thing, there are back channels. EU allies can buy from the U.S. and give to the Ukrainians. Intelligence is shared with the UK, they will in turn share with Ukraine. Gums things up and means it will take longer, more people will die, but it doesn’t mean they have to capitulate.

In terms of specific assets, Russia has close to 10:1 advantage at the beginning of the conflict. That is thought to have narrowed to about 2:1 because Ukraine is producing their own. In terms of drones - one of the primary weapons for both sides - they manufacture so many they have a surplus and have contemplated exporting or trading some of them.

The EU does not have a missile defense system comparable to the Patriot. They’ll be an obvious gap there. Both sides have attrition issues, doesn’t seem to be a major advantage for either country. But they’ve still got more than 1.2M armed forces and 2.7m reservists.

It’s worth remembering Ukraine stopped the Russian advances on their own during the first year, before significant aid arrived. The war has been basically a stalemate since their respective offensives failed in 2023.

The lack of U.S. support will be felt. Seems like a lot of folks have the opinion it won’t be fatal.

France/Italy are working on Aster 30 missiles for the SAMP-T which would make it directly comparable to the Patriot.

Though neither are as advanced as Patriot, NASAMS and IRIS-T are both air defense system that are effective against most of the threats Ukraine faces and work is being done to upgrade them to be more effective against ballistic missiles.

 

[Sand]

It’s worth remembering Ukraine stopped the Russian advances on their own during the first year, before significant aid arrived. The war has been basically a stalemate since their respective offensives failed in 2023.

While true, I wonder how many top tier troops from both sides were sacrificed in early stages of the war giving rise to the current stalemate we see now because both sides have attrited (that a word?) their best and brightest so they've taken to ground.

At this stage, a lot of this war is being fought remotely - missiles and drones. Not quite comparable to WWII or Vietnam in terms of how replacements / lowered standards were a serious issue for the U.S.

You could be right. Ukraine might be experiencing that somewhat. But I don’t think Russia has ever had a best & brightest. They have nothing comparable to the NCO leadership model that is the core structure of our armed forces.

Also, the kleptocracy made a lot of substandard equipment. We’ve known this for decades, they don’t have the economy or internal command structure to maintain readiness. They half-*** their way through exercises & training. Bites them in the butt every time they have boots on the ground (Afghanistan, Chechnya, Syria, Ukraine.)

Nobody wants to find out if it’s true, but there’s considerable evidence very few of their nukes are operational. Most of them are 40-50 years old, and their entire defense budget is always lower than the amount we spend solely on maintaining our (smaller) stockpile.

Putin has threatened to use nukes 40+ times. They released the previously classified Czar Bomba footage just before they invaded the Crimea peninsula in 2014. I don’t think they’d ever use them, and I’m not sure they would work as designed. But the threat, the mere existence of 4K warheads, is enough of a deterrent.

Russia is incredibly subpar as an effective fighting force. They might continue to pick off sovereign neighbors in the decades ahead, but they don’t want all the smoke. We showed Wagner in Syria what happens when you go up against well trained professionals with combined arms.

IMO, they seem to be the same Russia as was in WWII, certainly in the 1942 or so timeline. Not great weapons, not great leadership, but they threw tons of men into the breach. They're using the Stalingrad playbook - overwhelm the battlefield with manpower. Not sure what it is about the Russians, but they seem to have an inexhaustible supply of people to sacrifice and a willingness to conscript them.

 

[fatness]

Ukraine opposition leaders confirm talks with US but deny plotting to oust Zelenskyy

Ukraine’s opposition leaders have confirmed they have held discussions with members of Donald Trump’s entourage, but denied on Thursday they were part of a reported White House plot to remove Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power. The former president Petro Poroshenko said he had held talks with US representatives but added that he opposed Trump’s demands for wartime elections. Poroshenko, who lost to Zelenskyy in the 2019 presidential vote, said a poll should only be held once martial law ends. Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine’s former prime minister, said she also opposes elections while fighting continues. She said her team was “talking with all our allies who can help in securing a just peace as soon as possible”.

 

[The Z Machine]

US suspends intelligence sharing with Ukraine

The UK has also reportedly been blocked from sharing any intelligence provided by the US with its Ukrainian allies.

One would think that this could really jeopardize the intelligence relationship with the UK and the US. Why would the UK want to be handcuffed to share as they wish? Look at France? They have maintained both nuclear and intelligence autonomy since WWII. The UK thought that they were in lockstep with the USA and Canada. Looks like not so much.

Putin's dream of rupturing the west's diplomatic, intelligence, and military coalitions is coming to pass. It's coming because the USA is refusing to back the sovereignty of a democratically elected republic that was invaded by an autocratic state, hell bent on regaining "lost" territory.

BTW, why aren't people so upset about the "giveaways" and freeloading of Israel? They have received billions in military aid over the last 20 years.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

US suspends intelligence sharing with Ukraine

The UK has also reportedly been blocked from sharing any intelligence provided by the US with its Ukrainian allies.

One would think that this could really jeopardize the intelligence relationship with the UK and the US. Why would the UK want to be handcuffed to share as they wish? Look at France? They have maintained both nuclear and intelligence autonomy since WWII. The UK thought that they were in lockstep with the USA and Canada. Looks like not so much.

Putin's dream of rupturing the west's diplomatic, intelligence, and military coalitions is coming to pass. It's coming because the USA is refusing to back the sovereignty of a democratically elected republic that was invaded by an autocratic state, hell bent on regaining "lost" territory.

BTW, why aren't people so upset about the "giveaways" and freeloading of Israel? They have received billions in military aid over the last 20 years.

I may be speaking out of step here (and we should wait for more information), but I believe it does not pertain to information collected by the UK. The UK can do whatever it wants with information that MI6, GCHQ, etc collect.

 

[Chadstroma]

US Won’t Hesitate on Russia and Iran Sanctions, Bessent Says

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-06/us-won-t-hesitate-on-russia-and-iran-sanctions-bessent-says?embedded-checkout=true

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukrainian forces strike Russian command posts in Kherson, Kursk regions – General Staff

The Ukrainian Air Force has carried out precision strikes on Russian army command posts in Oleshky, a temporarily occupied town in the Kherson region, and in Plekhovo, Kursk region. — Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

 

[Don't Toews Me]

US Won’t Hesitate on Russia and Iran Sanctions, Bessent Says

The US will not hesitate to go “all in” on sanctions on Russian energy if it helps lead to a ceasefire in the Ukraine war, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday.
Sanctions on Russia “will be used explicitly and aggressively for immediate maximum impact” at President Donald Trump’s guidance, Bessent told an audience at the Economic Club of New York.

UK to supply new US-made ‘suicide drones’ to Ukraine

Britain will supply new US-made attack drones to Ukraine, the Defence Secretary has said.
John Healey announced that the UK would equip Ukraine with “suicide drones” to take on Russia in the Black Sea after visiting Anduril, the Anglo-American firm making the devices in Washington DC.
Mr Healey is in the US for a bilateral meeting with Pete Hegseth, his counterpart, at the Pentagon on Thursday afternoon.
The new £30 million contract for loitering munitions – warhead-carrying unmanned aerial weapons that monitor an area before striking in a “suicide” attack – includes Altius 600m and Altius 700m drones.

More info here on Eutelsat:

Andrii Kovalenko, a member of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said that while Kyiv may be reliant on Starlink right now, there are alternatives.
“In 2022 and 2023, when I was a UAV operator, our dependence on Starlink was significant — both for imagery and overall communication,” he said. “However, disruptions occurred even before.”
The front line is now “saturated” with fiber-optic cables, high-speed modems and “satellite options from Swedish and German providers,” he added. Other soldiers agreed that there were alternatives but warned that disruption could still be significant.
“The issue is mobility and internet speed. There’s always a risk of terminal shutdowns, which is why we are looking into alternatives like radio relay stations,” said a military communications chief near the eastern town of Pokrovsk, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. “Even if Starlink goes offline, command and control will remain — though it would slow troop movement, especially during offensives.”

European officials have said they could fill the gap if Starlink were to withdraw. One possibility is to grant Kyiv access to Govsatcom, a government service that pools the use of satellites from European Union members. Eutelsat OneWeb, a London-based satellite operator, is seen as another potential alternative.
Experts said they were not aware of any single satellite operator that could match Starlink, not only for the speed and breadth of coverage but also the ease of use and cost of equipment. “OneWeb terminals that I’ve seen are certainly bulkier … and, more importantly, costlier than Starlink terminals,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a military analyst based in London. “They are also not as widely available.”
“You can’t just flip the switch to the new service,” said Clayton Swope, an aerospace expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

Why Ukraine’s Allies Are Divided Over Using $300 Billion in Russian Assets

How are European allies divided on the issue?
Within the EU, some countries, including Poland and the Baltic states, have pushed for the funds to be seized, but the bloc’s biggest powers—Germany, France and Italy—have opposed such a move, as has the European Central Bank. Their fear is that seizing the funds could set a dangerous precedent for other actors to immobilize Western funds and appropriate them. They also worry seizing the cash could undermine confidence in euro assets and the euro currency. Germany, in particular, fears that seizing the Russian liquid assets could strengthen reparations cases it still faces over World War II.

Is the money part of any peace talks?
The G-7 has said it would include the frozen Russian funds in peace talks, demanding that Moscow agree to use the money to help pay for economic recovery in Ukraine. The Kremlin has suggested that it could relinquish its claims on the funds provided that the money was used for recovery spending both in the parts of Ukraine that remain under Ukrainian control and in areas Russia has occupied. The Trump administration hasn’t set out a clear position of its view on what should happen to the money.

Norway more than doubles Ukraine aid to $7.8 billion in 2025

Norway will more than double its financial pledge to Ukraine this year while also hiking its own defence spending, the prime minister said on Thursday, declaring the Nordic country faced its most serious security situation for 80 years.
Norway, home to the world's largest sovereign wealth fund with assets of $1.8 trillion, has seen soaring income from gas sales to Europe as a result of Russia's 2022 Ukraine invasion, and faces pressure at home and abroad to increase its aid.
The government and opposition leaders agreed on Thursday to raise this year's Ukraine funding to 85 billion Norwegian crowns ($7.83 billion), up from a plan agreed in November of 35 billion crowns, Labour Party Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere said.

Ukraine uses French Mirage jets for first time in repelling massive Russian attack

Ukraine's military used Mirage 2000 jets provided by France to repel a Russian attack for the first time, deploying the aircraft overnight against Moscow's latest barrage of missiles and drones.

Russian forces launched 67 missiles and 194 drones against Ukraine, bombing mostly energy and civilian infrastructure in the country's Odesa, Poltava, Kharkiv and Ternopil regions, Ukrainian officials said. Army spokesman Dmytro Lykhoviy said it was first massive Russian combined attack since the U.S. stopped aid to push Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow.

Kyiv managed to shoot down 34 missiles and 100 drones, Ukrainian air force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat said in a statement.

“The Mirages successfully intercepted Russian cruise missiles,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Facebook. He said U.S.-made F-16 jets also were used against the Russian attack.

Biggest Russian attack this year using Black Sea ships

This was the largest-scale Russian attack involving ships based in the Black Sea since the start of the year, Ukrainian navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk says.

He tells Ukrainian TV that they fired up to 20 missiles overnight. But, he goes on, Russia's Black Sea fleet is still "less active" than last year.

Ukraine loses satellite access

The US aerospace company Maxar Technologies has cut off Ukraine’s access to its satellite images, according to the Ukrainian military.

The firm is one of the main suppliers of commercial satellite images for Ukrainian users showing the movement of Russian troops.

The US suspended all intelligence sharing with Ukraine earlier this week.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1897974384108667037

Video showing Ukrainian FPVs launched from a naval drone targeting Russian Osa-AKM and Strela-10 air defense systems.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1897926115802411263

Updated map from @Deepstate_UA showing Russian advances south of Sudzha in Kursk, further threatening Ukrainian logistics in the region.

https://x.com/J_JHelin/status/1897808613093101933

The latest @Deepstate_UA update on Kursk looks a bit worrisome.

It appears that the secondary supply route on the southern edge is close to being severed by a sudden Russian penetration.

The main supply route between Sumy and Sudzha is under constant FPV threat.

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1897848087529316623

Map of recent Russian advances in Kursk Oblast according to Ukrainian analytical group @Deepstate_UA. It said North Korean troops are responsible for the advances near Kurilovka, which have almost severed the secondary supply route to Sudzha.

 

[beer 30]

At this stage, a lot of this war is being fought remotely - missiles and drones. Not quite comparable to WWII or Vietnam in terms of how replacements / lowered standards were a serious issue for the U.S.

You could be right. Ukraine might be experiencing that somewhat. But I don’t think Russia has ever had a best & brightest. They have nothing comparable to the NCO leadership model that is the core structure of our armed forces.

Also, the kleptocracy made a lot of substandard equipment. We’ve known this for decades, they don’t have the economy or internal command structure to maintain readiness. They half-*** their way through exercises & training. Bites them in the butt every time they have boots on the ground (Afghanistan, Chechnya, Syria, Ukraine.)

Nobody wants to find out if it’s true, but there’s considerable evidence very few of their nukes are operational. Most of them are 40-50 years old, and their entire defense budget is always lower than the amount we spend solely on maintaining our (smaller) stockpile.

Putin has threatened to use nukes 40+ times. They released the previously classified Czar Bomba footage just before they invaded the Crimea peninsula in 2014. I don’t think they’d ever use them, and I’m not sure they would work as designed. But the threat, the mere existence of 4K warheads, is enough of a deterrent.

Russia is incredibly subpar as an effective fighting force. They might continue to pick off sovereign neighbors in the decades ahead, but they don’t want all the smoke. We showed Wagner in Syria what happens when you go up against well trained professionals with combined arms.

Well said and agree with everything you posted.

I'll ask again because it was ignored or glossed over when I asked earlier in the week after the event at the White House and everyone threw their hands up and said Russia is now set to roll over Europe all the way to the Atlantic. I'm to believe these Russians, the ones you describe above are the new version of the Mongols and will roll rough shod over Europe? Sorry, I'm not buying it. They won't make it out of Ukraine and even if they do, they will have absolutely no power left in the punch.

 

[Redwes25]

At this stage, a lot of this war is being fought remotely - missiles and drones. Not quite comparable to WWII or Vietnam in terms of how replacements / lowered standards were a serious issue for the U.S.

You could be right. Ukraine might be experiencing that somewhat. But I don’t think Russia has ever had a best & brightest. They have nothing comparable to the NCO leadership model that is the core structure of our armed forces.

Also, the kleptocracy made a lot of substandard equipment. We’ve known this for decades, they don’t have the economy or internal command structure to maintain readiness. They half-*** their way through exercises & training. Bites them in the butt every time they have boots on the ground (Afghanistan, Chechnya, Syria, Ukraine.)

Nobody wants to find out if it’s true, but there’s considerable evidence very few of their nukes are operational. Most of them are 40-50 years old, and their entire defense budget is always lower than the amount we spend solely on maintaining our (smaller) stockpile.

Putin has threatened to use nukes 40+ times. They released the previously classified Czar Bomba footage just before they invaded the Crimea peninsula in 2014. I don’t think they’d ever use them, and I’m not sure they would work as designed. But the threat, the mere existence of 4K warheads, is enough of a deterrent.

Russia is incredibly subpar as an effective fighting force. They might continue to pick off sovereign neighbors in the decades ahead, but they don’t want all the smoke. We showed Wagner in Syria what happens when you go up against well trained professionals with combined arms.

Well said and agree with everything you posted.

I'll ask again because it was ignored or glossed over when I asked earlier in the week after the event at the White House and everyone threw their hands up and said Russia is now set to roll over Europe all the way to the Atlantic. I'm to believe these Russians, the ones you describe above are the new version of the Mongols and will roll rough shod over Europe? Sorry, I'm not buying it. They won't make it out of Ukraine and even if they do, they will have absolutely no power left in the punch.

I think the Europe is rightly concerned that the U.S. won't support them anymore. Also, certain European countries cannot stand alone against Russia so they are thinking about a new framework at this point in case NATO is no longer what they expected it to be. Given news coming out of the WH, I don't think those fears are entirely unfounded.

Does Russia have the ability to roll all the way to the Atlantic - no. Also, I don't think Russia's plan is to do that anyway. However, Putin has been very clear that he wants to recreate the Soviet Empire and extended zone of influence. That puts a lot of smaller weaker European countries in his cross-hairs. For example, can Latavia for stand on its on - doubt it. A united Europe can stop Russia but for a long time that united Europe was lead by the U.S. For example, the entire command and control of NATO is under U.S. leadership. A new framework is needed and fast for Europe to defend itself.

Should they have been thinking about this more in the last 10 to 20 year (of course) but I don't think they ever thought they would see such a fast change in U.S. policy.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Trump threatens sanctions on Russia, demands peace after major hits in Ukraine

President Donald Trump threatened to impose "large scale" sanctions against Russia after the country carried out a massive attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. In a post on Truth Social, President Trump said he was "strongly considering" sanctions and tariffs "until a ceasefire and final settlement agreement on peace is reached."

Trump says he considers sanctioning Russia because it's 'pounding' Ukraine

Russian forces have reportedly made a breakthrough south of the Ukrainian-held town of Sudzha in Russia's Kursk Oblast, potentially threatening to cut off some of the Ukrainian positions in the region.

A Ukrainian soldier and a medic deployed in Kursk Oblast, who spoke to the Kyiv Independent on condition of anonymity, confirmed the Russian breakthrough in the embattled region on March 7.

Russia is also pushing in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk sectors in Donetsk Oblast, with a total of 146 clashes recorded across the front line over the past day, Ukraine's General Staff said on March 7.

Russia Close to Cutting Off Ukrainian Troops Fighting in Kursk

Russian forces have reclaimed some Ukrainian-held territory in the Kursk Region, threatening a potential bargaining chip that Kyiv could take into potential peace talks with Moscow.
The area under Ukrainian control in Kursk has shrunk by nearly one-fifth over less than three weeks, based on the data from DeepState open-source map service. What’s more, Russian forces are close to splitting Ukraine’s military presence in the region, according to the map service.

Russians breach Ukrainian defensive line near Sudzha, Russia

The Russian forces have broken through the Ukrainian defensive line south of Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. The Ukrainian defence forces are working to stabilise the situation.

Source: analytical project DeepState; a source in one of the Ukrainian units operating in this area of Kursk Oblast, speaking to Ukrainska Pravda

Quote: "There was a breach of the [Ukrainian] blockade area. In short, this is an area where our units are trying to hold back the enemy to avoid the risk of partial or complete encirclement.

This did not happen suddenly but rather gradually and systematically. Even before the New Year, the Russians had entered Kurilovka (a village south of Sudzha), where one of our brigades withdrew from its positions. After that, the enemy built up its forces and systematically launched assault operations. Yesterday and the day before [6 and 5 March], they made a breakthrough – this is the result."

Details: A source from one of the units operating in the area of Kursk Oblast reported that the Ukrainian defence forces are currently trying to stabilise the situation.

Quote: "Right now, we are working to stabilise the situation so that the enemy cannot fully cut off our supply routes."

Context: The likely reason for the Russian breakthrough near Sudzha is to secure another access route to a key Ukrainian supply road in Kursk Oblast – the Sumy-Yunakivka-Sudzha road – from the south. Since January 2025, Russian forces have been attempting to take control of this road. At the end of February, they made their first attempt to approach the road from the north via the village of Novenke.

EDF colonel: Russia has taken back some territory in Kursk Oblast

Russia has managed to retake some of the territory in Kursk Oblast, while the Ukrainians have carried out successful counter-attacks in the Pokrovsk region, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Intelligence Center.

Speaking at this Friday's weekly Ministry of Defense press conference, to Col. Kiviselg said, the Russian Federation forces are still holding the initiative on the battlefield and the number of daily attacks has remained at a similar level to the previous week, at around 109 per day.

Col. Kiviselg said that North Korean troops are, once again, more actively involved in the fighting in Kursk Oblast.

"Despite the fact that Ukraine has been actively conducting defensive and offensive activities in Kursk and still holds about 350 to 380 square kilometers of territory, the Russian Federation has managed to retake some territory there over the last week, amounting to approximately 20 to 40 square kilometers," Col. Kiviselg said.

The EDF colonel also said that the Russian Federation has been more active in its attacks in Ukraine's Sumy Oblast. "The probable aim is to force Ukrainian units to fragment and have to send additional units there, or in other words to weaken their forces in Kursk Oblast," Col. Kiviselg said.

Col. Kiviselg said that in Donetsk Oblast, Russia has increased its pressure towards the settlement of Chasiv Yar, in an attempt to break through Ukrainian defensive lines. "There has been some tactical success, but the Ukrainian defensive lines as a whole are holding there," Col. Kiviselg said.

"The Ukrainian forces have additionally carried out successful counter-attacks in the Pokrovsk region and managed to stabilize the front there as well as liberate some villages in that area," the colonel explained.

Putin Ready to Agree to Ukraine Truce With Conditions

Russia is willing to discuss a temporary truce in Ukraine provided there is progress toward a final peace settlement, according to people familiar with the matter in Moscow.
In the first signal of a positive response from President Vladimir Putin to US counterpart Donald Trump’s call for a ceasefire, the offer was conveyed at last month’s talks in Saudi Arabia between top Russian and American officials, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing internal policy.
In order to agree to a cessation of hostilities, there would have to be a clear understanding about the framework principles of the final peace accord, two people with knowledge of the matter said. Russia will insist in particular on establishing the parameters of an eventual peacekeeping mission, including agreement on which countries would take part, said another person familiar with the issue.

Russia has said it won’t accept the presence of NATO troops on Ukrainian soil, rejecting a proposal by European countries to put together a “coalition of the willing” to help monitor any peace accord. It doesn’t object to countries such as China that have been neutral in the conflict deploying forces to Ukraine, the two people said.

 

[BobbyLayne]

The U.S. is strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire is reached.

1. They’re already the most sanctioned country and have been for a decade; what’s left to sanction? Apparently banks? IDK…
2. Tariffs on nonexistent trade doesn’t seem like a big stick.

 

[Redwes25]

The U.S. is strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire is reached.

1. They’re already the most sanctioned country and have been for a decade; what’s left to sanction? Apparently banks? IDK…
2. Tariffs on nonexistent trade doesn’t seem like a big stick.

There really is nothing left to Sanction and trade is basically non-existent ($3.5 billion last year). Not sure that is an informed statement.

Link of trade info:

Russia

ustr.gov

 

[The Z Machine]

Narrator: Well, it turns out that wasn't an informed statement

 

[BobbyLayne]

In 2024, the United States exported $526.1 million worth of goods to Russia, while importing $3.0 billion worth of goods from Russia.

$3.5B puts Russia 23rd in U.S. trade partners, right behind Indonesia.

Worldwide trade with the U.S. amounted to $3.267 trillion dollars.

$3.5B / $3.267T = just over 1/10th of 1 percent.

0.00107132 or 0.11%

 

[BobbyLayne]

1 out of every 10000 seems pretty close to nonexistent but what do I know.

 

[Redwes25]

Russia has said it won’t accept the presence of NATO troops on Ukrainian soil, rejecting a proposal by European countries to put together a “coalition of the willing” to help monitor any peace accord. It doesn’t object to countries such as China that have been neutral in the conflict deploying forces to Ukraine, the two people said.

I do like this take - No, Ukraine can't have its Allies maintain the peace but ok if our Allies to do it.