*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (8 Viewers)

[Chadstroma]

The U.S. is strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire is reached.

1. They’re already the most sanctioned country and have been for a decade; what’s left to sanction? Apparently banks? IDK…
2. Tariffs on nonexistent trade doesn’t seem like a big stick.

The key to bringing Russia to the peace table to talk and/or bring it to it's knees is the price of crude.... it represents about a third of their total exports. If the income brought in from oil drops significantly, the economy will crumble.

I think the best way to effectively do that is to convince the Kingdom of Saud and the rest of OPEC to start pumping out more oil. How do we do that is the big question I think.

 

[BobbyLayne]

The U.S. is strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire is reached.

1. They’re already the most sanctioned country and have been for a decade; what’s left to sanction? Apparently banks? IDK…
2. Tariffs on nonexistent trade doesn’t seem like a big stick.

The key to bringing Russia to the peace table to talk and/or bring it to it's knees is the price of crude.... it represents about a third of their total exports. If the income brought in from oil drops significantly, the economy will crumble.

I think the best way to effectively do that is to convince the Kingdom of Saud and the rest of OPEC to start pumping out more oil. How do we do that is the big question I think.

I think the starting point is to revoke the EU sanction exemption on Russian fossil fuel exports. The amount of crude the EU bought from Russian exceeded the aid they sent to Ukraine. #truestory

 

[beer 30]

The U.S. is strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire is reached.

1. They’re already the most sanctioned country and have been for a decade; what’s left to sanction? Apparently banks? IDK…
2. Tariffs on nonexistent trade doesn’t seem like a big stick.

The key to bringing Russia to the peace table to talk and/or bring it to it's knees is the price of crude.... it represents about a third of their total exports. If the income brought in from oil drops significantly, the economy will crumble.

I think the best way to effectively do that is to convince the Kingdom of Saud and the rest of OPEC to start pumping out more oil. How do we do that is the big question I think.

I think the starting point is to revoke the EU sanction exemption on Russian fossil fuel exports. The amount of crude the EU bought from Russian exceeded the aid they sent to Ukraine. #truestory

I knew the EU was still buying from them, didn't realize it was that much though. That's a less than optimal situation.

 

[BobbyLayne]

The U.S. is strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire is reached.

1. They’re already the most sanctioned country and have been for a decade; what’s left to sanction? Apparently banks? IDK…
2. Tariffs on nonexistent trade doesn’t seem like a big stick.

The key to bringing Russia to the peace table to talk and/or bring it to it's knees is the price of crude.... it represents about a third of their total exports. If the income brought in from oil drops significantly, the economy will crumble.

I think the best way to effectively do that is to convince the Kingdom of Saud and the rest of OPEC to start pumping out more oil. How do we do that is the big question I think.

I think the starting point is to revoke the EU sanction exemption on Russian fossil fuel exports. The amount of crude the EU bought from Russian exceeded the aid they sent to Ukraine. #truestory

I knew the EU was still buying from them, didn't realize it was that much though. That's a less than optimal situation.

The 3 largest importers of Russian fossil fuels are Turkey (24%, non-EU), India and China. Fat chance getting cooperation from them.

Recent events are making a mockery of article 5 of NATO. As a collective, EU is strong enough to stand up to Putin - in theory. The hard part is getting all 27 nations to agree what that might look like, and how many want to be part of the coalition of the willing.

 

[culdeus]

Russia Is Not Winning

At the current rate, Russia will control all of Ukraine in about 118 years.

www.theatlantic.com

#winning

 

[beer 30]

The U.S. is strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire is reached.

1. They’re already the most sanctioned country and have been for a decade; what’s left to sanction? Apparently banks? IDK…
2. Tariffs on nonexistent trade doesn’t seem like a big stick.

The key to bringing Russia to the peace table to talk and/or bring it to it's knees is the price of crude.... it represents about a third of their total exports. If the income brought in from oil drops significantly, the economy will crumble.

I think the best way to effectively do that is to convince the Kingdom of Saud and the rest of OPEC to start pumping out more oil. How do we do that is the big question I think.

I think the starting point is to revoke the EU sanction exemption on Russian fossil fuel exports. The amount of crude the EU bought from Russian exceeded the aid they sent to Ukraine. #truestory

I knew the EU was still buying from them, didn't realize it was that much though. That's a less than optimal situation.

The 3 largest importers of Russian fossil fuels are Turkey (24%, non-EU), India and China. Fat chance getting cooperation from them.

Recent events are making a mockery of article 5 of NATO. As a collective, EU is strong enough to stand up to Putin - in theory. The hard part is getting all 27 nations to agree what that might look like, and how many want to be part of the coalition of the willing.

I feel like the EU could do what they need to vs RUS. Given that the majority of the EU is in or associated with NATO, they've all ostensibly trained together so working together as a group (which is kinda one of the points of NATO) shouldn't be a **** show. It will be because anything past 2-3 countries working together just dictate it will be a **** show. That said, I still don't think RUS stands a chance of advancing out of Ukraine and definitely not if the "coalition of the willing" actually put boots on the ground in Ukraine.

I think it was you but someone upthread mentioned that without US armament support, the EU is going to have to quickly ramp up production of pretty much, everything. I don't know how mush is produced by the US, simple stuff like 5.56 ammo or if it's more tech based weaponry? I don't know how that looks for a bunch of countries that haven't really focused on that in the past 20 or so years. I don't think it looks good.

 

[The Z Machine]

The U.S. is strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire is reached.

1. They’re already the most sanctioned country and have been for a decade; what’s left to sanction? Apparently banks? IDK…
2. Tariffs on nonexistent trade doesn’t seem like a big stick.

The key to bringing Russia to the peace table to talk and/or bring it to it's knees is the price of crude.... it represents about a third of their total exports. If the income brought in from oil drops significantly, the economy will crumble.

I think the best way to effectively do that is to convince the Kingdom of Saud and the rest of OPEC to start pumping out more oil. How do we do that is the big question I think.

I think the starting point is to revoke the EU sanction exemption on Russian fossil fuel exports. The amount of crude the EU bought from Russian exceeded the aid they sent to Ukraine. #truestory

I knew the EU was still buying from them, didn't realize it was that much though. That's a less than optimal situation.

The 3 largest importers of Russian fossil fuels are Turkey (24%, non-EU), India and China. Fat chance getting cooperation from them.

Recent events are making a mockery of article 5 of NATO. As a collective, EU is strong enough to stand up to Putin - in theory. The hard part is getting all 27 nations to agree what that might look like, and how many want to be part of the coalition of the willing.

I feel like the EU could do what they need to vs RUS. Given that the majority of the EU is in or associated with NATO, they've all ostensibly trained together so working together as a group (which is kinda one of the points of NATO) shouldn't be a **** show. It will be because anything past 2-3 countries working together just dictate it will be a **** show. That said, I still don't think RUS stands a chance of advancing out of Ukraine and definitely not if the "coalition of the willing" actually put boots on the ground in Ukraine.

I think it was you but someone upthread mentioned that without US armament support, the EU is going to have to quickly ramp up production of pretty much, everything. I don't know how mush is produced by the US, simple stuff like 5.56 ammo or if it's more tech based weaponry? I don't know how that looks for a bunch of countries that haven't really focused on that in the past 20 or so years. I don't think it looks good.

I was reading a reddit thread about the Swiss purchasing the F35 and whether they should back out and go with the Dassault Rafale since the US can't be trusted not to pull the plug on the planes either through a literal kill switch or through simply not exporting repair parts. Many Swiss commentators indicated that the US was not the trusted partner that the French are.

 

[Redwes25]

The U.S. is strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire is reached.

1. They’re already the most sanctioned country and have been for a decade; what’s left to sanction? Apparently banks? IDK…
2. Tariffs on nonexistent trade doesn’t seem like a big stick.

The key to bringing Russia to the peace table to talk and/or bring it to it's knees is the price of crude.... it represents about a third of their total exports. If the income brought in from oil drops significantly, the economy will crumble.

I think the best way to effectively do that is to convince the Kingdom of Saud and the rest of OPEC to start pumping out more oil. How do we do that is the big question I think.

I think the starting point is to revoke the EU sanction exemption on Russian fossil fuel exports. The amount of crude the EU bought from Russian exceeded the aid they sent to Ukraine. #truestory

I knew the EU was still buying from them, didn't realize it was that much though. That's a less than optimal situation.

The 3 largest importers of Russian fossil fuels are Turkey (24%, non-EU), India and China. Fat chance getting cooperation from them.

Recent events are making a mockery of article 5 of NATO. As a collective, EU is strong enough to stand up to Putin - in theory. The hard part is getting all 27 nations to agree what that might look like, and how many want to be part of the coalition of the willing.

I feel like the EU could do what they need to vs RUS. Given that the majority of the EU is in or associated with NATO, they've all ostensibly trained together so working together as a group (which is kinda one of the points of NATO) shouldn't be a **** show. It will be because anything past 2-3 countries working together just dictate it will be a **** show. That said, I still don't think RUS stands a chance of advancing out of Ukraine and definitely not if the "coalition of the willing" actually put boots on the ground in Ukraine.

I think it was you but someone upthread mentioned that without US armament support, the EU is going to have to quickly ramp up production of pretty much, everything. I don't know how mush is produced by the US, simple stuff like 5.56 ammo or if it's more tech based weaponry? I don't know how that looks for a bunch of countries that haven't really focused on that in the past 20 or so years. I don't think it looks good.

It is a both high tech and low tech (though not things like bullets) but artillery shells. There honestly is not enough supply being made to meet demand in Ukraine. One lesson of this conflict is that use of ammo is way higher than anyone expected even in an high intensity conflict. Article on 155mm shell below.

https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2024/9/11/arms-manufacturers-catching-up-with-worlds-insatiable-need-for-155mm-rounds

 

[Chadstroma]

The U.S. is strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire is reached.

1. They’re already the most sanctioned country and have been for a decade; what’s left to sanction? Apparently banks? IDK…
2. Tariffs on nonexistent trade doesn’t seem like a big stick.

The key to bringing Russia to the peace table to talk and/or bring it to it's knees is the price of crude.... it represents about a third of their total exports. If the income brought in from oil drops significantly, the economy will crumble.

I think the best way to effectively do that is to convince the Kingdom of Saud and the rest of OPEC to start pumping out more oil. How do we do that is the big question I think.

I think the starting point is to revoke the EU sanction exemption on Russian fossil fuel exports. The amount of crude the EU bought from Russian exceeded the aid they sent to Ukraine. #truestory

I knew the EU was still buying from them, didn't realize it was that much though. That's a less than optimal situation.

The 3 largest importers of Russian fossil fuels are Turkey (24%, non-EU), India and China. Fat chance getting cooperation from them.

Recent events are making a mockery of article 5 of NATO. As a collective, EU is strong enough to stand up to Putin - in theory. The hard part is getting all 27 nations to agree what that might look like, and how many want to be part of the coalition of the willing.

I am not sure how the politics of 27 nations plays into mockery of article 5 of NATO. NATO has always had sways and swerves. None of this is 'new' in terms of this. France left NATO and rejoined several decades later. Most (I would venture a guess nearly all) NATO nations have opposition parties that have leaving NATO as part of their platform including all the major US third parties (Libertarian, Green and Constitution Parties). Turkey and Greece are both NATO nations and one of the biggest potential hot spots in the world. Speaking of Turkey, it consistently has gone it's own direction at times that were at odds with the US and the alliance. This really is business as usual for NATO... after all, go gather 32 people and try to get them all to get along and agree on important matters.... good luck, let alone 32 nations.

 

[Chadstroma]

I was reading a reddit thread about the Swiss purchasing the F35 and whether they should back out and go with the Dassault Rafale since the US can't be trusted not to pull the plug on the planes either through a literal kill switch or through simply not exporting repair parts. Many Swiss commentators indicated that the US was not the trusted partner that the French are.

This may be the best leverage that the EU nations of NATO have to sway US policy. Though, I am not convinced all that is said is not theatre to begin with. However, the US defense industry is an extremely important part of our economy. Many nations are trying to grow their own domestic defense industry and anything that lures away further buys can and will have an impact and push buttons against policies that could endanger it.

 

[BobbyLayne]

The U.S. is strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire is reached.

1. They’re already the most sanctioned country and have been for a decade; what’s left to sanction? Apparently banks? IDK…
2. Tariffs on nonexistent trade doesn’t seem like a big stick.

The key to bringing Russia to the peace table to talk and/or bring it to it's knees is the price of crude.... it represents about a third of their total exports. If the income brought in from oil drops significantly, the economy will crumble.

I think the best way to effectively do that is to convince the Kingdom of Saud and the rest of OPEC to start pumping out more oil. How do we do that is the big question I think.

I think the starting point is to revoke the EU sanction exemption on Russian fossil fuel exports. The amount of crude the EU bought from Russian exceeded the aid they sent to Ukraine. #truestory

I knew the EU was still buying from them, didn't realize it was that much though. That's a less than optimal situation.

The 3 largest importers of Russian fossil fuels are Turkey (24%, non-EU), India and China. Fat chance getting cooperation from them.

Recent events are making a mockery of article 5 of NATO. As a collective, EU is strong enough to stand up to Putin - in theory. The hard part is getting all 27 nations to agree what that might look like, and how many want to be part of the coalition of the willing.

I am not sure how the politics of 27 nations plays into mockery of article 5 of NATO. NATO has always had sways and swerves. None of this is 'new' in terms of this. France left NATO and rejoined several decades later. Most (I would venture a guess nearly all) NATO nations have opposition parties that have leaving NATO as part of their platform including all the major US third parties (Libertarian, Green and Constitution Parties). Turkey and Greece are both NATO nations and one of the biggest potential hot spots in the world. Speaking of Turkey, it consistently has gone it's own direction at times that were at odds with the US and the alliance. This really is business as usual for NATO... after all, go gather 32 people and try to get them all to get along and agree on important matters.... good luck, let alone 32 nations.

My statement regarding Article 5 was simply a reference to unprecedented remarks from the WH this week. Never before has the United States said 1) our defense commitment to NATO was conditional, or 2) questioned the loyalty of our allies should we be attacked. As a reminder, Article has been invoked exactly once - after 9/11 by the U.S., and our NATO allies joined us in the GWOT.

France never left NATO. No one has ever exited NATO. They did withdraw integrated military command in 1966 because de Gaulle did not want to commit his SSBNs to unified command. They came back to integrated military command in 2009 but do not participate in the Nuclear Planning Committee.

Spoiler: sidebar - how many SSBNs are there in the world?

• Russia 16
• China 6

basically it’s 22 v 22

• USA 14
  • UK 4
• France 4

 

[Chadstroma]

The U.S. is strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire is reached.

1. They’re already the most sanctioned country and have been for a decade; what’s left to sanction? Apparently banks? IDK…
2. Tariffs on nonexistent trade doesn’t seem like a big stick.

The key to bringing Russia to the peace table to talk and/or bring it to it's knees is the price of crude.... it represents about a third of their total exports. If the income brought in from oil drops significantly, the economy will crumble.

I think the best way to effectively do that is to convince the Kingdom of Saud and the rest of OPEC to start pumping out more oil. How do we do that is the big question I think.

I think the starting point is to revoke the EU sanction exemption on Russian fossil fuel exports. The amount of crude the EU bought from Russian exceeded the aid they sent to Ukraine. #truestory

I knew the EU was still buying from them, didn't realize it was that much though. That's a less than optimal situation.

The 3 largest importers of Russian fossil fuels are Turkey (24%, non-EU), India and China. Fat chance getting cooperation from them.

Recent events are making a mockery of article 5 of NATO. As a collective, EU is strong enough to stand up to Putin - in theory. The hard part is getting all 27 nations to agree what that might look like, and how many want to be part of the coalition of the willing.

I am not sure how the politics of 27 nations plays into mockery of article 5 of NATO. NATO has always had sways and swerves. None of this is 'new' in terms of this. France left NATO and rejoined several decades later. Most (I would venture a guess nearly all) NATO nations have opposition parties that have leaving NATO as part of their platform including all the major US third parties (Libertarian, Green and Constitution Parties). Turkey and Greece are both NATO nations and one of the biggest potential hot spots in the world. Speaking of Turkey, it consistently has gone it's own direction at times that were at odds with the US and the alliance. This really is business as usual for NATO... after all, go gather 32 people and try to get them all to get along and agree on important matters.... good luck, let alone 32 nations.

My statement regarding Article 5 was simply a reference to unprecedented remarks from the WH this week. Never before has the United States said 1) our defense commitment to NATO was conditional, or 2) questioned the loyalty of our allies should we be attacked. As a reminder, Article has been invoked exactly once - after 9/11 by the U.S., and our NATO allies joined us in the GWOT.

France never left NATO. No one has ever exited NATO. They did withdraw integrated military command in 1966 because de Gaulle did not want to commit his SSBNs to unified command. They came back to integrated military command in 2009 but do not participate in the Nuclear Planning Committee.

Spoiler: sidebar - how many SSBNs are there in the world?

• Russia 16
• China 6

basically it’s 22 v 22

• USA 14
  • UK 4
• France 4

Ok, left the command structure, the actual point still stands. There has and always will be politics involved in the alliance as the 32 nations pull and push with domestic and international politics.

 

[Redwes25]

The U.S. is strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire is reached.

1. They’re already the most sanctioned country and have been for a decade; what’s left to sanction? Apparently banks? IDK…
2. Tariffs on nonexistent trade doesn’t seem like a big stick.

The key to bringing Russia to the peace table to talk and/or bring it to it's knees is the price of crude.... it represents about a third of their total exports. If the income brought in from oil drops significantly, the economy will crumble.

I think the best way to effectively do that is to convince the Kingdom of Saud and the rest of OPEC to start pumping out more oil. How do we do that is the big question I think.

I think the starting point is to revoke the EU sanction exemption on Russian fossil fuel exports. The amount of crude the EU bought from Russian exceeded the aid they sent to Ukraine. #truestory

I knew the EU was still buying from them, didn't realize it was that much though. That's a less than optimal situation.

The 3 largest importers of Russian fossil fuels are Turkey (24%, non-EU), India and China. Fat chance getting cooperation from them.

Recent events are making a mockery of article 5 of NATO. As a collective, EU is strong enough to stand up to Putin - in theory. The hard part is getting all 27 nations to agree what that might look like, and how many want to be part of the coalition of the willing.

I am not sure how the politics of 27 nations plays into mockery of article 5 of NATO. NATO has always had sways and swerves. None of this is 'new' in terms of this. France left NATO and rejoined several decades later. Most (I would venture a guess nearly all) NATO nations have opposition parties that have leaving NATO as part of their platform including all the major US third parties (Libertarian, Green and Constitution Parties). Turkey and Greece are both NATO nations and one of the biggest potential hot spots in the world. Speaking of Turkey, it consistently has gone it's own direction at times that were at odds with the US and the alliance. This really is business as usual for NATO... after all, go gather 32 people and try to get them all to get along and agree on important matters.... good luck, let alone 32 nations.

My statement regarding Article 5 was simply a reference to unprecedented remarks from the WH this week. Never before has the United States said 1) our defense commitment to NATO was conditional, or 2) questioned the loyalty of our allies should we be attacked. As a reminder, Article has been invoked exactly once - after 9/11 by the U.S., and our NATO allies joined us in the GWOT.

France never left NATO. No one has ever exited NATO. They did withdraw integrated military command in 1966 because de Gaulle did not want to commit his SSBNs to unified command. They came back to integrated military command in 2009 but do not participate in the Nuclear Planning Committee.

Spoiler: sidebar - how many SSBNs are there in the world?

• Russia 16
• China 6

basically it’s 22 v 22

• USA 14
  • UK 4
• France 4

I always thought this was due to French/deGualle arrogance but sitting here today I bet there are very happy about it.

Also, changes in U.S. policy could have a big impact on nuclear proliferation. I saw news that Poland wanted to develop them and imagine others will take that view as well.

 

[The Z Machine]

The U.S. is strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire is reached.

1. They’re already the most sanctioned country and have been for a decade; what’s left to sanction? Apparently banks? IDK…
2. Tariffs on nonexistent trade doesn’t seem like a big stick.

The key to bringing Russia to the peace table to talk and/or bring it to it's knees is the price of crude.... it represents about a third of their total exports. If the income brought in from oil drops significantly, the economy will crumble.

I think the best way to effectively do that is to convince the Kingdom of Saud and the rest of OPEC to start pumping out more oil. How do we do that is the big question I think.

I think the starting point is to revoke the EU sanction exemption on Russian fossil fuel exports. The amount of crude the EU bought from Russian exceeded the aid they sent to Ukraine. #truestory

I knew the EU was still buying from them, didn't realize it was that much though. That's a less than optimal situation.

The 3 largest importers of Russian fossil fuels are Turkey (24%, non-EU), India and China. Fat chance getting cooperation from them.

Recent events are making a mockery of article 5 of NATO. As a collective, EU is strong enough to stand up to Putin - in theory. The hard part is getting all 27 nations to agree what that might look like, and how many want to be part of the coalition of the willing.

I am not sure how the politics of 27 nations plays into mockery of article 5 of NATO. NATO has always had sways and swerves. None of this is 'new' in terms of this. France left NATO and rejoined several decades later. Most (I would venture a guess nearly all) NATO nations have opposition parties that have leaving NATO as part of their platform including all the major US third parties (Libertarian, Green and Constitution Parties). Turkey and Greece are both NATO nations and one of the biggest potential hot spots in the world. Speaking of Turkey, it consistently has gone it's own direction at times that were at odds with the US and the alliance. This really is business as usual for NATO... after all, go gather 32 people and try to get them all to get along and agree on important matters.... good luck, let alone 32 nations.

My statement regarding Article 5 was simply a reference to unprecedented remarks from the WH this week. Never before has the United States said 1) our defense commitment to NATO was conditional, or 2) questioned the loyalty of our allies should we be attacked. As a reminder, Article has been invoked exactly once - after 9/11 by the U.S., and our NATO allies joined us in the GWOT.

France never left NATO. No one has ever exited NATO. They did withdraw integrated military command in 1966 because de Gaulle did not want to commit his SSBNs to unified command. They came back to integrated military command in 2009 but do not participate in the Nuclear Planning Committee.

Spoiler: sidebar - how many SSBNs are there in the world?

• Russia 16
• China 6

basically it’s 22 v 22

• USA 14
  • UK 4
• France 4

I always thought this was due to French/deGualle arrogance but sitting here today I bet there are very happy about it.

Also, changes in U.S. policy could have a big impact on nuclear proliferation. I saw news that Poland wanted to develop them and imagine others will take that view as well.

Does Germany have nukes? Italy? Or only UK and France in Europe?

 

[rockaction]

The U.S. is strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire is reached.

1. They’re already the most sanctioned country and have been for a decade; what’s left to sanction? Apparently banks? IDK…
2. Tariffs on nonexistent trade doesn’t seem like a big stick.

The key to bringing Russia to the peace table to talk and/or bring it to it's knees is the price of crude.... it represents about a third of their total exports. If the income brought in from oil drops significantly, the economy will crumble.

I think the best way to effectively do that is to convince the Kingdom of Saud and the rest of OPEC to start pumping out more oil. How do we do that is the big question I think.

I think the starting point is to revoke the EU sanction exemption on Russian fossil fuel exports. The amount of crude the EU bought from Russian exceeded the aid they sent to Ukraine. #truestory

I knew the EU was still buying from them, didn't realize it was that much though. That's a less than optimal situation.

The 3 largest importers of Russian fossil fuels are Turkey (24%, non-EU), India and China. Fat chance getting cooperation from them.

Recent events are making a mockery of article 5 of NATO. As a collective, EU is strong enough to stand up to Putin - in theory. The hard part is getting all 27 nations to agree what that might look like, and how many want to be part of the coalition of the willing.

I am not sure how the politics of 27 nations plays into mockery of article 5 of NATO. NATO has always had sways and swerves. None of this is 'new' in terms of this. France left NATO and rejoined several decades later. Most (I would venture a guess nearly all) NATO nations have opposition parties that have leaving NATO as part of their platform including all the major US third parties (Libertarian, Green and Constitution Parties). Turkey and Greece are both NATO nations and one of the biggest potential hot spots in the world. Speaking of Turkey, it consistently has gone it's own direction at times that were at odds with the US and the alliance. This really is business as usual for NATO... after all, go gather 32 people and try to get them all to get along and agree on important matters.... good luck, let alone 32 nations.

My statement regarding Article 5 was simply a reference to unprecedented remarks from the WH this week. Never before has the United States said 1) our defense commitment to NATO was conditional, or 2) questioned the loyalty of our allies should we be attacked. As a reminder, Article has been invoked exactly once - after 9/11 by the U.S., and our NATO allies joined us in the GWOT.

France never left NATO. No one has ever exited NATO. They did withdraw integrated military command in 1966 because de Gaulle did not want to commit his SSBNs to unified command. They came back to integrated military command in 2009 but do not participate in the Nuclear Planning Committee.

Spoiler: sidebar - how many SSBNs are there in the world?

• Russia 16
• China 6

basically it’s 22 v 22

• USA 14
  • UK 4
• France 4

I always thought this was due to French/deGualle arrogance but sitting here today I bet there are very happy about it.

Also, changes in U.S. policy could have a big impact on nuclear proliferation. I saw news that Poland wanted to develop them and imagine others will take that view as well.

Does Germany have nukes? Italy? Or only UK and France in Europe?

WWII says no. Germany has U.S. nuclear weapons on its soil. I am not sure if Italy does.

 

[The Z Machine]

The U.S. is strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire is reached.

1. They’re already the most sanctioned country and have been for a decade; what’s left to sanction? Apparently banks? IDK…
2. Tariffs on nonexistent trade doesn’t seem like a big stick.

The key to bringing Russia to the peace table to talk and/or bring it to it's knees is the price of crude.... it represents about a third of their total exports. If the income brought in from oil drops significantly, the economy will crumble.

I think the best way to effectively do that is to convince the Kingdom of Saud and the rest of OPEC to start pumping out more oil. How do we do that is the big question I think.

I think the starting point is to revoke the EU sanction exemption on Russian fossil fuel exports. The amount of crude the EU bought from Russian exceeded the aid they sent to Ukraine. #truestory

I knew the EU was still buying from them, didn't realize it was that much though. That's a less than optimal situation.

The 3 largest importers of Russian fossil fuels are Turkey (24%, non-EU), India and China. Fat chance getting cooperation from them.

Recent events are making a mockery of article 5 of NATO. As a collective, EU is strong enough to stand up to Putin - in theory. The hard part is getting all 27 nations to agree what that might look like, and how many want to be part of the coalition of the willing.

I am not sure how the politics of 27 nations plays into mockery of article 5 of NATO. NATO has always had sways and swerves. None of this is 'new' in terms of this. France left NATO and rejoined several decades later. Most (I would venture a guess nearly all) NATO nations have opposition parties that have leaving NATO as part of their platform including all the major US third parties (Libertarian, Green and Constitution Parties). Turkey and Greece are both NATO nations and one of the biggest potential hot spots in the world. Speaking of Turkey, it consistently has gone it's own direction at times that were at odds with the US and the alliance. This really is business as usual for NATO... after all, go gather 32 people and try to get them all to get along and agree on important matters.... good luck, let alone 32 nations.

My statement regarding Article 5 was simply a reference to unprecedented remarks from the WH this week. Never before has the United States said 1) our defense commitment to NATO was conditional, or 2) questioned the loyalty of our allies should we be attacked. As a reminder, Article has been invoked exactly once - after 9/11 by the U.S., and our NATO allies joined us in the GWOT.

France never left NATO. No one has ever exited NATO. They did withdraw integrated military command in 1966 because de Gaulle did not want to commit his SSBNs to unified command. They came back to integrated military command in 2009 but do not participate in the Nuclear Planning Committee.

Spoiler: sidebar - how many SSBNs are there in the world?

• Russia 16
• China 6

basically it’s 22 v 22

• USA 14
  • UK 4
• France 4

I always thought this was due to French/deGualle arrogance but sitting here today I bet there are very happy about it.

Also, changes in U.S. policy could have a big impact on nuclear proliferation. I saw news that Poland wanted to develop them and imagine others will take that view as well.

Does Germany have nukes? Italy? Or only UK and France in Europe?

WWII says no. Germany has U.S. nuclear weapons on its soil. I am not sure if Italy does.

Is it written into treaties or German / Italy laws?

 

[BobbyLayne]

The U.S. is strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire is reached.

1. They’re already the most sanctioned country and have been for a decade; what’s left to sanction? Apparently banks? IDK…
2. Tariffs on nonexistent trade doesn’t seem like a big stick.

The key to bringing Russia to the peace table to talk and/or bring it to it's knees is the price of crude.... it represents about a third of their total exports. If the income brought in from oil drops significantly, the economy will crumble.

I think the best way to effectively do that is to convince the Kingdom of Saud and the rest of OPEC to start pumping out more oil. How do we do that is the big question I think.

I think the starting point is to revoke the EU sanction exemption on Russian fossil fuel exports. The amount of crude the EU bought from Russian exceeded the aid they sent to Ukraine. #truestory

I knew the EU was still buying from them, didn't realize it was that much though. That's a less than optimal situation.

The 3 largest importers of Russian fossil fuels are Turkey (24%, non-EU), India and China. Fat chance getting cooperation from them.

Recent events are making a mockery of article 5 of NATO. As a collective, EU is strong enough to stand up to Putin - in theory. The hard part is getting all 27 nations to agree what that might look like, and how many want to be part of the coalition of the willing.

I am not sure how the politics of 27 nations plays into mockery of article 5 of NATO. NATO has always had sways and swerves. None of this is 'new' in terms of this. France left NATO and rejoined several decades later. Most (I would venture a guess nearly all) NATO nations have opposition parties that have leaving NATO as part of their platform including all the major US third parties (Libertarian, Green and Constitution Parties). Turkey and Greece are both NATO nations and one of the biggest potential hot spots in the world. Speaking of Turkey, it consistently has gone it's own direction at times that were at odds with the US and the alliance. This really is business as usual for NATO... after all, go gather 32 people and try to get them all to get along and agree on important matters.... good luck, let alone 32 nations.

My statement regarding Article 5 was simply a reference to unprecedented remarks from the WH this week. Never before has the United States said 1) our defense commitment to NATO was conditional, or 2) questioned the loyalty of our allies should we be attacked. As a reminder, Article has been invoked exactly once - after 9/11 by the U.S., and our NATO allies joined us in the GWOT.

France never left NATO. No one has ever exited NATO. They did withdraw integrated military command in 1966 because de Gaulle did not want to commit his SSBNs to unified command. They came back to integrated military command in 2009 but do not participate in the Nuclear Planning Committee.

Spoiler: sidebar - how many SSBNs are there in the world?

• Russia 16
• China 6

basically it’s 22 v 22

• USA 14
  • UK 4
• France 4

I always thought this was due to French/deGualle arrogance but sitting here today I bet there are very happy about it.

Also, changes in U.S. policy could have a big impact on nuclear proliferation. I saw news that Poland wanted to develop them and imagine others will take that view as well.

We may indeed see far more proliferation. That’s always been the classic argument for maintaining the alliance and being the world’s good cop. An isolationist U.S. will be a destabilizing impetus that leads to instability.

IMO

 

[BobbyLayne]

The United States also has an estimated 100 B-61 nuclear gravity bombs that are forward-deployed at six NATO bases in five countries.

• NATO bases:
  • Aviano and Ghedi: Italy
  • Büchel: Germany
  • Incirlik: Turkey
  • Kleine Brogel: Belgium
  • Volkel: Netherlands

 

[rockaction]

The U.S. is strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire is reached.

1. They’re already the most sanctioned country and have been for a decade; what’s left to sanction? Apparently banks? IDK…
2. Tariffs on nonexistent trade doesn’t seem like a big stick.

The key to bringing Russia to the peace table to talk and/or bring it to it's knees is the price of crude.... it represents about a third of their total exports. If the income brought in from oil drops significantly, the economy will crumble.

I think the best way to effectively do that is to convince the Kingdom of Saud and the rest of OPEC to start pumping out more oil. How do we do that is the big question I think.

I think the starting point is to revoke the EU sanction exemption on Russian fossil fuel exports. The amount of crude the EU bought from Russian exceeded the aid they sent to Ukraine. #truestory

I knew the EU was still buying from them, didn't realize it was that much though. That's a less than optimal situation.

The 3 largest importers of Russian fossil fuels are Turkey (24%, non-EU), India and China. Fat chance getting cooperation from them.

Recent events are making a mockery of article 5 of NATO. As a collective, EU is strong enough to stand up to Putin - in theory. The hard part is getting all 27 nations to agree what that might look like, and how many want to be part of the coalition of the willing.

I am not sure how the politics of 27 nations plays into mockery of article 5 of NATO. NATO has always had sways and swerves. None of this is 'new' in terms of this. France left NATO and rejoined several decades later. Most (I would venture a guess nearly all) NATO nations have opposition parties that have leaving NATO as part of their platform including all the major US third parties (Libertarian, Green and Constitution Parties). Turkey and Greece are both NATO nations and one of the biggest potential hot spots in the world. Speaking of Turkey, it consistently has gone it's own direction at times that were at odds with the US and the alliance. This really is business as usual for NATO... after all, go gather 32 people and try to get them all to get along and agree on important matters.... good luck, let alone 32 nations.

My statement regarding Article 5 was simply a reference to unprecedented remarks from the WH this week. Never before has the United States said 1) our defense commitment to NATO was conditional, or 2) questioned the loyalty of our allies should we be attacked. As a reminder, Article has been invoked exactly once - after 9/11 by the U.S., and our NATO allies joined us in the GWOT.

France never left NATO. No one has ever exited NATO. They did withdraw integrated military command in 1966 because de Gaulle did not want to commit his SSBNs to unified command. They came back to integrated military command in 2009 but do not participate in the Nuclear Planning Committee.

Spoiler: sidebar - how many SSBNs are there in the world?

• Russia 16
• China 6

basically it’s 22 v 22

• USA 14
  • UK 4
• France 4

I always thought this was due to French/deGualle arrogance but sitting here today I bet there are very happy about it.

Also, changes in U.S. policy could have a big impact on nuclear proliferation. I saw news that Poland wanted to develop them and imagine others will take that view as well.

Does Germany have nukes? Italy? Or only UK and France in Europe?

WWII says no. Germany has U.S. nuclear weapons on its soil. I am not sure if Italy does.

Is it written into treaties or German / Italy laws?

I'm not an expert but Germany signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and did the same for the event of reunification in the Two Plus Four Treaty. It was prevented in 1954 by the Western EU in exchange for recognition to the Union. It was enshrined into its domestic law as a result. Germany has, due to diplomacy, told the world it will not develop its own nuclear weapons on many occasions.

Here, this is better. I'm not an expert

Germany and weapons of mass destruction - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Italy I just do not know enough about. Similar story of hosting US and European weapons without having their own, all of which is cemented in various agreements.

Italian nuclear weapons program - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[BobbyLayne]

I think there are ~ 190 parties in the NPT.

5 recognized nuclear powers - U.S., Russia, UK, France and China.

4 unofficial nuclear states - 3 non-participants in NPT + 1 who withdrew - India, Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea.

The rest of the world has agreed to not pursue development of weapons of mass destruction including nuclear weapons.

But nothing lasts forever, eh.

 

[The Z Machine]

Similar story of hosting US and European weapons without having their own, all of which is cemented in various agreements.

Various agreements... that all might get torn up with the realignment of the US away from NATO.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

U.S. suspends commercial satellite imagery service to Ukraine

U.S. partners and allies use the system to access the imagery through its orbital imaging services known as Global Enhanced GEOINT Delivery. U.S. officials said the suspension affected multiple companies that deliver imagery through the program.
Ukrainian forces have heavily relied on the service to give them a technological edge against Russian forces.
Artillery and drone units study the images to assess quality targets and review the damage to refine the attacks. A constant refresh of satellite imagery helps commanders and soldiers keep tabs on where enemy positions and depots are, making it easier to find vulnerabilities and troop movements. And they help logistics soldiers plan vehicle routes, with alternative corridors laid out if pathways are mined or destroyed.

Senior troops have used battle software into which the imagery is integrated, but the maps within the programs are no longer usable, said Oleksandr, 40, an officer overseeing intelligence operations inside Russia’s Kursk region.
“A more detailed understanding of the battlefield terrain is a huge advantage at every level,” he said. “Without such data, we will inevitably lose some speed and accuracy. It’s not decisive, but it’s definitely an inconvenience.” He spoke on the condition of being identified by his first name, in line with Ukrainian military rules.
Near the eastern city of Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub where Russian forces have waged a bitter campaign, the satellite service “simply disappeared,” a soldier said.
“Is this a tragedy? No, we use our own plans,” he said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak with the media.
Ukraine can still access such imagery with its own purchased accounts.

https://x.com/Maxar/status/1898095166378176991

Maxar’s statement on media reports regarding access rights to Maxar imagery:

Maxar has contracts with the U.S. government and dozens of allied and partner nations around the world to provide satellite imagery and other geospatial data. Each customer makes their own decisions on how they use and share that data.

One of those contracts is GEGD (the Global Enhanced GEOINT Delivery program), a U.S. government program that provides access to commercial satellite imagery that has been tasked and collected by the U.S. government. The U.S. government has temporarily suspended Ukrainian accounts in GEGD.

We take our contractual commitments very seriously. There is no change to the way we support our other customers nor their programs or contracts.

Russian offensive under way against Ukrainian forces in Kursk region

Russian troops have launched a large-scale offensive to retake swaths of the western Kursk region from Ukrainian forces, war bloggers and a senior Russian commander said on Saturday.
Ukrainian troops stormed into Russia's Kursk region last summer, taking chunks of territory in an unexpected lightning attack more than two years after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine.
"In all directions of the Kursk section of the front, all units have launched a large-scale offensive," Major General Apti Alaudinov, commander of a Chechen unit fighting for Russia in Kursk, said on Telegram.

Russians forces nearly encircle Ukrainian troops in Kursk

Open-source mapping from Deep State, a Ukrainian military blog, revealed on Friday that approximately three-quarters of the Ukrainian forces operating inside Russia had now been nearly fully encircled.
According to the Ukrainska Pravda news outlet, Russia is attempting to sever supply routes, while Kyiv is working to "stabilize the situation," citing a source within a military unit.

"The situation (for Ukraine in Kursk) is very bad," Pasi Paroinen, a military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group, told Reuters. "Now there is not much left until Ukrainian forces will either be encircled or forced to withdraw."

10,000 Ukrainian troops at risk of encirclement

It is believed that a significant number of North Korean troops were used in the offensive to cut the Ukrainian soldiers off, with the help of drone warfare to disrupt Kyiv’s supply chains and logistics.
A junior sergeant, communicating with The Telegraph via a sporadic phone connection, said Ukraine was considering withdrawing from Kursk to avoid further losses.
“We want to avoid losses. The fear of encirclement is real,” they said.

Maps from the Ukrainian military blog Deepstate reveal that roughly three-quarters of the Ukrainian force inside Russia is nearly fully encircled and almost split in two.
The remaining troops near the Russian border are connected by a corridor about one kilometre long and less than 500 metres wide at its narrowest point.
The only Ukrainian road into Sudzha is now in range of Russia’s first person view drones, complicating efforts to hold the area and retreat if needed.

Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Centre for Countering Disinformation, said Russian units were trying to take control of a key highway from Yunakivka in Sumy Oblast to Sudzha.
Elite Ukrainian units, including the 95th Air Assault Brigade, the 115th Mechanised Brigade, and the 8th Separate Special Purpose Regiment, remain active in Kursk Oblast.
Russian troops are said to be extending the combat zone to the villages of Novyenkiy and Basivka, with reports of them seizing control of Novaya and Stara Sorochitsa.
The Russian advance on the key road came shortly after the US cut off intelligence-sharing to Ukraine.
By limiting surveillance, the US will have allowed Russians to operate more freely and plan attacks without Ukrainian knowledge, experts believe.
A military intelligence officer in Kyiv told The Telegraph that the freeze amounted to “more or less a total blackout”.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1898368786740175025

Yuriy Butusov and Ukrainska Pravda both report that approximately 100 Russian soldiers attempted to assault Ukrainian positions near Sudhza by using a gas pipeline.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1898279528096502253

Video from last month from Ukraine’s 11th Separate Army Aviation “Kherson” Brigade of Mi-24V helicopters shooting down UAVs and firing rockets.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1898377070624882967

Another video of Ukrainian helicopters shooting down Russian UAVs from February. 2/

Russian strikes kill at least 25, Ukraine says

At least 25 people have died in Ukraine in the latest wave of Russian strikes, Ukrainian officials say, as the conflict shows no sign of easing.

One attack on Donetsk Region killed least 11 people and wounded 40, including six children, local officials said on Saturday. Homes and infrastructure were hit in other regions, including Kharkiv and Odesa.

The deadliest strikes occurred late on Friday in the Donetsk Region town of Dobropillya. At least 11 people were killed when two ballistic missiles hit eight residential buildings and a shopping centre, officials said.

Other attacks in the region killed nine people and wounded 13 on Friday and Saturday, local officials said.

Drones struck a company in Bohodukhiv, Kharkiv Region, killing three people and injuring seven early on Saturday, regional head Oleh Synyehubov reported.

Another drone attack on Friday hit civilian and energy infrastructure in Odesa, the regional head said. "This is the seventh attack on the region's energy system in three weeks," the DTEK energy company said.

'Russia wants to test West,' says German intelligence chief

The head of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (Bundesnachrichtendienst or BND) believes that Russia is seeking to "test the unity of the West" in order to determine whether NATO countries really would trigger Article 5 – which stipulates that an attack against one of the trans-Atlantic alliance's members will be considered an attack on all.

"We very much hope that's not the case and that we don't end up in a situation where it's put to the test," BND chief Bruno Kahl told DW on Saturday. "But we have to assume that Russia wants to test the unity of the West."

According to Kahl, the precise timing of any potential Russian "testing" of Article 5 depends on the course of its ongoing invasion of Ukraine which, three years on, is still consuming massive amounts of Russian military supplies and manpower.

"An early end to the war in Ukraine will enable the Russians to focus their energy where they really want it – against Europe," he said. "It could be that a concrete danger for Europe emerges sooner than we think."

Kahl said that Russian President Vladimir Putin is keen to push NATO back and extend his own influence westwards – "ideally without any Americans in Europe." But he said he hoped that the United States wouldn't fall for that and expressed confidence that American and European intelligence services would continue to work together.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

With Drones and North Korean Troops, Russia Pushes Back Ukraine’s Offensive

Russian and North Korean forces have made significant battlefield advances in recent days in the Kursk region of Russia, threatening Ukraine’s supply lines and its hold on a patch of land it hopes to use as a bargaining chip in future negotiations, according to Ukrainian soldiers, Russian military bloggers and military analysts.
Working together, a new influx of North Korean soldiers and well-trained Russian drone units, advancing under the cover of ferocious artillery fire and aerial bombardment, have been able to overwhelm important Ukrainian positions, Ukrainian soldiers said.
“It’s true; we can’t stop them,” said Oleksii, the commander of a Ukrainian communications unit fighting in the area, when reached by phone. “They just sweep us away, advancing in groups of 50 North Koreans while we have only six men on our positions.”
“Decisions are being made here, but I don’t know how effective they will be,” he said.

Russian and North Korean soldiers have retaken about two-thirds of the land lost in the summer — but at a horrendous cost, with at least 4,000 troops killed in combat, according to Ukrainian, South Korean and Western intelligence estimates.

For months, Russian and North Korean forces have been attacking in some of the most ferocious clashes of the war, the intensity rising and falling but never really subsiding, soldiers said.
The North Koreans were forced to withdraw from the battlefield in January and regroup, but they soon returned.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said on Feb. 8 that “Russia has once again deployed North Korean soldiers alongside its troops.” Four Ukrainian soldiers all said in interviews that North Koreans were at the vanguard of the latest waves of attacks, along with elite Russian drone units.

Ukrainian soldiers said the North Koreans were now better adapted to waging war on a battlefield that has been transformed by the proliferation of drones. They still engage in the same ferocious frontal assaults that led to so many casualties, but they are operating more cohesively.
“The North Koreans’ application of tactics is constantly improving,” said Andrii, a drone commander fighting in Kursk. They are working in better coordination with North Korean artillery units and supported by Russian drone operators, he said.
They have helped the Russians break through Ukrainian lines in the western part of the Ukrainian-held pocket near the border, south of Sudzha, according to DeepState, a group of analysts mapping the battlefield based on sources in the Ukrainian military, and open-source data like satellite imagery, photos and video posted on social media.

Ukrainian soldiers in the fighting said that their lines were broken south of the small village of Kurylivka, where the enemy troops were able to cross a narrow river in January. They quietly amassed forces, soldiers said, but by early March, there were simply too many North Koreans, and when they attacked they overran the Ukrainian positions.
Ukrainian forces retreated in an organized manner along designated defensive lines, Ukrainian soldiers said. The enemy advance has been halted, for the moment.

In addition to having an overwhelming edge in troops and firepower, the Russians have saturated the battlefield with fiber-optic drones. Unlike radio-controlled drones, these are immune to jamming because they are controlled by ultrathin fiber optic cables that unspool as their pilots guide them to their targets.
Capt. Oleksandr Shyrshyn, a battalion commander in the 47th Mechanized Brigade fighting in Kursk, said that the Russians appeared to have increased the range the drones can fly while bringing some of their best operators to the Kursk region.
Small Russian assault units of just a couple of soldiers are also now sometimes moving forward with the drones, further extending the range pilots can fly them.
“Once they storm in, at approximately 200 to 300 meters from the front line, they start using them from there,” he said.
This, he said, has allowed the Russians and North Koreans to strike more effectively at Ukraine’s main supply line: the only road leading from Ukraine to Sudzha.
That route has long been a target of Russian attacks. On a visit to the border this winter, it was littered with the wreckage of blasted-out armored tanks and other military vehicles that had failed to safely run the gauntlet.
The Russians can now keep that road under near-constant fire.
Captain Shyrsyn said that his soldiers were still able to hold their positions even under increasing pressure, but other soldiers said the situation was growing more difficult by the day.
Andrii, the drone commander, said, “The enemy has strongly focused on cutting our logistics, which affects our ability to hold the defense.”
“This was influenced by the number of their drones and the training of their crews,” he said. “It feels like they have gathered their best crews here, and, accordingly, their numbers are large.”
“We have losses,” he added, “but we are still carrying out the tasks assigned to us.”

More on Kursk here:

The impact for the Ukrainians has been most acute in the Russian region of Kursk, where the Ukrainian armed forces are struggling to hold a swath of territory that they seized in a shock offensive last August. That assault marked the first foreign invasion of Russian land since World War II, humiliating the Kremlin and drawing thousands of North Korean troops into the war to help Russia regain control of the area.
President Zelensky sees that region as a critical source of leverage in any future peace talks with the Russians. His aim is to trade parts of the Kursk area for Ukrainian land that Russia has occupied. “We will swap one territory for another,” Zelensky told the Guardian last month.
Since the U.S. halted intelligence sharing, however, the Russians have made swift advances in Kursk, aiming to cut off Ukrainian supply lines into the region, according to military officers and fresh maps of the battlefield produced by Deep State, an open-source intelligence organization. “If we do nothing, there will be huge consequences,” the co-founder of Deep State, Roman Pogorily, told local media on Tuesday. The main supply line for Ukrainian troops operating in Kursk is now “under constant attack,” he added. “It is impossible to move normally along it.”
A source in the Zelensky government confirmed that operations in the region of Kursk have been worst affected by the loss of access to U.S. intelligence. “Not only Kursk, in all Russian territory there are problems now,” he says. The Ukrainians have lost the ability to detect the approach of Russian bombers and other warplanes as they take off inside Russia. As a result, Ukraine has less time to warn civilians and military personnel about the risk of an approaching airstrike or missile. “It’s very dangerous for our people,” the government source says. “It has to be immediately changed.”

US continues to share data to protect Ukrainians against Russian strikes, despite intel pause: sources

The U.S. is continuing to share some defensive intelligence with Ukraine to protect against incoming Russian strikes, despite an announced pause in intel sharing that raised alarm bells, Fox News Digital has learned.

Three sources familiar with the decision confirmed that intelligence related to force protection and incoming threats would continue. Federal intelligence, the work of the CIA, FBI and human intelligence, has ceased, as has data that helps with offensive Ukrainian strikes against Russians.

Another intelligence source said to expect the pause to be "very temporary in nature," and that the sharing of all data could resume in the coming days.

 

[Chadstroma]

Calls Increase On Social Media For Europe To Cancel F-35 Orders

Since President Donald Trump announced a wave of tariffs on imported goods there have been calls on social media for a boycott of U.S. products, including the F-35

www.forbes.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine releases video of Russian attack via gas pipeline in Kursk Oblast

"At present, Russian special forces are being detected, blocked and destroyed. Enemy losses in the Sudzha area are very heavy," the General Staff claimed on the evening of March 8.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine loses ground in Kursk as US cuts off support

The deterioration comes as Ukrainian soldiers face the prospect of fighting without US support ahead of crucial talks with the US in Saudi Arabia this week. “The situation in the Kursk region is very difficult and could turn into a disaster if we don’t act urgently to clear the logistical routes,” Ukrainian military blogger Bohdan Myroshnykov wrote late on Saturday.
Observers said Ukraine may have withdrawn from several villages near Sudzha, based on analysis of combat footage. Russia’s Defence Ministry also said on Sunday that its forces have captured Lebedevka, a village about 10 kilometres from the centre of the town, as well as the village of Konstyantynopil, in the southern part of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.
The capture of Lebedevka was confirmed by DeepState, a Ukrainian war tracking group closely tied to Ukraine’s defence minister.

“The war has changed so much,” said Denys Yaroslavskiy, the head of an intelligence unit in the 57th brigade, deployed in the border town of Vovchansk. “Nowadays we use FPV drones much more than the artillery our partners gave us, and APCs and tanks are rarely used, except sometimes by assault brigades”.

Despite the loss of Konstyantynopil over the weekend, Ukrainian forces have managed over recent weeks to launch counter-attacks and take back several villages, partially the result of deploying fresh drone units and better co-ordination.
“It’s not really a counteroffensive yet, but we’re moving to active defence, the line isn’t crumbling any more” said Ukrainian military blogger Oleksandr Karpyuk.
But months of a gruelling offensive that has seen Russian forces suffer heavy casualties also contributed to blunting the Russian assaults.
“Our guys have acted brilliantly, especially on the tactical level” one senior Ukrainian official said. “But it is a temporary stabilisation caused in good part by Russian exhaustion. They are going to regroup and attack again”.

https://x.com/Black_BirdGroup/status/1898768247194861995

We have updated the map to reflect the emerging situation in the Kursk salient, where recent Russian offensive have forced the Ukrainians to withdraw from large areas.

The northern part of the salient has been abandoned, with Russians capturing Malaya Lokanaya.
1/
According to Russian sources the Ukrainians had rotated some units out of the salient earlier. It's possible that the Ukrainians were preparing for larger withdrawals.

Recent Russian operations may have started as an pre-emptive attempt to disrupt any Ukrainian withdrawal.
2/
Russian actions throughout the area of operations seem coordinated, further reinforcing the assessment that instead of reacting to a sudden Ukrainian withdrawal, the Russians have the initiative and are forcing the Ukrainians to react to their operations.
3/
Currently the situation in the salient is extremely difficult. Ukrainian defense is currently being established around Kasachya Lochnaya and Sudzha.

Multiple bridges in the area have been destroyed, leaving some Ukrainian defenders with rivers behind their backs.
4/
The Russian advance on Wednesday and Thursday has likely denied the use of a Secondary Supply Route west of Kurilovka to the Ukrainians.

Meanwhile the Main Supply Route from Sumy to Sudzha is under Russian drone surveillance making traverse extremely dangerous.
5/
The mild weather has led to ground conditions becoming soft. This greatly limits off-road traverse further complicating withdrawal.

The Ukrainians will likely attempt to delay the Russian advance with rearguard battles to secure a large scale withdrawal from the salient.
6/6

Russian forces creep through disused gas pipeline in attempt to launch surprise attack on Ukrainian soldiers

Russian special forces crept through a disused gas pipeline for several miles to launch a surprise attack on Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region, Ukraine's military and pro-Moscow war bloggers have said.

Footage circulating on the Telegram app claims to show the elite soldiers crouching as they make their way through the darkness of the pipe to the town of Sudzha.
Some can be heard cursing in Russian and complaining about the commanders who sent them on the mission.

One of the soldiers is heard saying: "******* hell, where the **** are we, boys?"

Another says: "Where does the pipe go? To Sudzha, for ***** sake, that's ******* crazy."

Later in the clip a soldier is heard saying: "We'll get there of course, but indignantly, because we're ******* sick of the ******* command."

He later adds: "They took our ******* assault rifles too."

The special forces soldiers walked around nine miles (15km) through the pipeline which Moscow had until recently used to send gas to Europe, according to Telegram posts by Ukrainian-born pro-Kremlin blogger Yuri Podolyaka.

In the footage, the soldiers suggest the mission requires them to walk seven miles through the pipe.

Mr Podolyaka says some of them spent several days in the pipeline before striking Ukrainian units from the rear near Sudzha.

Another pro-Russian war blogger, who uses the alias Two Majors, said a major battle is under way in Sudzha after Moscow's special forces crept through the pipe.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's general staff confirmed on Saturday that Russian soldiers had used the pipeline in an attempt to gain a foothold, but airborne assault forces promptly detected them, and they responded with rocket, artillery and drone attacks that destroyed Moscow's units.

"The enemy's losses in Sudzha are very high," the general staff reported.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Europe scrambles to aid Ukraine after US intelligence cutoff

Now, it will likely fall to other intelligence heavyweights within the NATO alliance — Britain, France and to an extent Germany — to pick up the slack. But they are unlikely to be able to replicate the scope and scale of the sprawling U.S. intelligence community.

“I’m not sure that European countries can really bridge this gap,” said a European official familiar with the capabilities of allies, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the continent’s security arrangements.

One person familiar with those discussions said NATO members are not prohibited from sharing some U.S intelligence with Ukraine, though such sharing could be very limited, as allies don’t want to jeopardize existing relationships with Washington or one another.

One NATO official emphasized that the American suspension of arms shipments and intel sharing with Ukraine is being described to allies as a temporary measure until Washington sees some movement in talks to end the war, and they are under no pressure from the Trump team to reduce or curtail their own work with Ukraine on either intelligence sharing or arms shipments.

The America-Sized Hole in Ukraine’s War Effort

The Russian army was advancing relentlessly in northeastern Ukraine in the summer of 2022 when the U.S. tipped the scales with new weapons and crucial battlefield intelligence.

The superior accuracy and greater range of M777 howitzers, supplied by the U.S., hit back against Russia’s mostly Soviet-designed artillery. Then U.S. intelligence tipped off Ukraine’s generals that Russia had moved several battalions to another front. Accurate U.S.-made rocket artillery struck Russian fuel depots and weapons stores, leaving the Russian army short of supplies ahead of a rapid Ukrainian counteroffensive that retook dozens of towns.

The U.S. accounts for over half of Ukraine’s foreign supplies of the important 155mm artillery shells, according to one person familiar with the matter. Even with U.S. shells, Ukraine currently is able to fire one for every three Russia does, that person said.

“We already don’t have parity with Russia in weapons and ammunition,” said Ukrainian Army Lt. Dmytro Yanok, who commands an M777 battery. “If the U.S. ends ammunition deliveries for good, the situation will become much worse.”

Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based defense analyst, said that could necessitate tactical withdrawals in some areas, although he believes the front can hold in the near term.

“Overall it’s not catastrophic,” he said. “The dependence on the U.S. is much less in 2025 than it would have been in 2022 or 2023.”

Alongside more traditional weapons, the U.S. makes some of Ukraine’s most sophisticated and new equipment. Europe has supplied much of Ukraine’s short- and midrange air defense. But Europe currently has nothing on land that can compare to the U.S. Patriot system’s ability to destroy Russian ballistic and hypersonic missiles. Both missiles are so fast and ballistics so large that there are few defenses against them.

The Patriot’s success can be seen in Ukrainian government data. Between October 2023 and last November, Ukraine shot down only 10% of ballistic missiles, according to data from the Ukrainian Air Force. But those fired at Kyiv, where Ukraine has at least one Patriot system, were typically intercepted.

“Everyone wants a Patriot,” said Viktor Petryshyn, a Ukrainian air defense commander in southern Ukraine. Petryshyn uses a Soviet S-300 system that has shot down Russian drones, missiles and planes.

Ukraine has around five Patriot systems, three of which come from the U.S. Ukraine’s biggest problem will now be getting the U.S. manufactured missiles.

“They were not getting enough as it was,” said Nick Reynolds, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London.

“It would expose Ukraine’s critical national infrastructure even more and put the population to more risk,” he said. Ukraine’s electricity grid has been targeted through much of the war, causing black outs and hurting the country’s economy.

Underscoring the problems, France and Italy supplied a Samp/T missile defense system that was designed to handle ballistic missiles. But after arriving in Ukraine, the system’s software struggled and it failed to hit ballistic missiles, according to people familiar with the matter. Ukraine also soon ran low on the Aster missile that the Samp/T uses, they said.

France to tap Russian assets for 195 million euros this year, minister says

France will use interest from Russian assets to fund another 195 million euros ($211 million) in arms for Ukraine, Armed Forces Minister Sebastien Lecornu said a newspaper interview.
France also plans to hand over some of its older armoured fighting vehicles, such as its AMX-10RC and personnel carriers, Lecornu told La Tribune weekend newspaper.
"Thanks to interest from frozen Russian assets, we will also tap new funds worth 195 million euros," Lecornu said, adding that it would be used for 155-mm artillery shells and glide bombs for Mirage 2000 fighter jets France has given Ukraine.

 

[ghostguy123]

So does Zelenskyy come sign the deal Trump wanted, or do they just keep losing ground?
It seems every day that goes by makes it less likely the US will even want that same deal considering the areas they want to use may be occupied by a different country by the time they sign it.

Does anyone have a link with a map that shows these areas?

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine signs memorandum with IRIS-T manufacturer, supply will triple​

Ukraine has signed a memorandum with Diehl Defence, the German manufacturer of the IRIS-T system, which provides for a threefold increase in the supply of missiles and air defence systems.

Source: Ukraine’s Defence Minister Rustem Umierov on Facebook

Quote: "We have signed a memorandum of understanding with Diehl Defence, the manufacturer of the IRIS-T system, which is a crucial part of Ukraine’s air defence shield.

Protecting Ukraine’s skies and cities is our priority. The signed agreement paves the way for major industrial projects that will enhance the capabilities of our air defence.

The memorandum also provides for a threefold increase in the supply of missiles and air defence systems."

Background:

・In early September 2024, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that Germany had ordered a total of 17 IRIS-T air defence systems for Ukraine, including eight medium-range (SLM) and nine short-range (SLS) systems.

・On 20 December, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukraine had received its sixth IRIS-T SLM air defence system from Germany.

・At the end of December 2024, Germany delivered a large aid package to Ukraine, including IRIS-T and Patriot systems.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

If you have not, please read Chapter 1 of Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marhsall. it was written in 2015. The fist Chapter is about Russia with a focus on it's western border being the North European Plain and NATO's encroachment for various reasons being an instigator of the invasion of Ukraine. It 95% predicts exactly what has happened for the last 4 years. I view it as a modern georgraphy lesson and easy to read. Kind of a modern version of The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers

 

[Chadstroma]

If you have not, please read Chapter 1 of Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marhsall. it was written in 2015. The fist Chapter is about Russia with a focus on it's western border being the North European Plain and NATO's encroachment for various reasons being an instigator of the invasion of Ukraine. It 95% predicts exactly what has happened for the last 4 years. I view it as a modern georgraphy lesson and easy to read. Kind of a modern version of The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers

This article, on the same subject and written by the same author after the invasion likely hits the important parts of the book.

Why Russia is a prisoner of geography

Haunted by the nightmares of history, Vladimir Putin is the latest Russian leader to use violence and occupation to control the European flatlands to the west.

www.newstatesman.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Some more here on the upcoming talks in Saudi Arabia between the US and Ukraine:

Ukraine has several objectives and has been shaping its strategy with France and Britain, which have become intermediaries between the White House and Kyiv. At a minimum it wants to sign a framework for joint American and Ukrainian mineral development. On March 7th Mr Zelensky also proposed an air and naval cease-fire: the idea, according to a Western official, is to put the ball back in Russia’s court by making demands on it. Both developments would, Western officials hope, create a sense that Ukraine is ready to engage with Mr Trump. If Russia says no to a framework that has been accepted by America and Ukraine, it would be up to Mr Trump to try to press Vladimir Putin to accept its terms.

What does Russia want? Some reports in recent days have suggested that Mr Putin may be open to a truce under certain conditions. But the game unfolding may well be more sophisticated and cynical than that. A highly-placed source close to the Kremlin suggests Russia intends to demand a Ukrainian declaration of neutrality, and that foreign peacekeepers be ruled out.

Russia Pushes Ukrainian Forces Back in Kursk After U.S. Halts Support

One Ukrainian artillery gunner deployed on the Kursk front said he was firing to provide cover for soldiers pulling back from the area.

“I’m covering their withdrawal so that they don’t become encircled,” the soldier said in a phone message. “Right, f— them up,” he said to a colleague.

The Russian army has been preparing the offensive in Kursk since January, Pohorily said. That is when drone operators and artillery units began probing a critical Ukrainian supply route for weaknesses, then bringing in a high number of drone operators to bombard it.

“Everything that’s moving to there or from there—95%—is attacked,” Pohorily said of Kursk.

Drones are playing a key role in the Russians’ push forward, and the strong reconnaissance means Ukrainians have trouble moving unnoticed. Soldiers said Russia was using huge numbers of drones controlled via a thin fiber-optic cable, which prevents Ukrainians from downing them using electronic jammers.

One Ukrainian soldier operating in the area said Russia was at times deploying drone pilots closer to the front line than usual, extending their explosive crafts’ ranges.
The air dominance means not only equipment, but even troop movements don’t go unnoticed, soldiers said.

Another soldier said rotating soldiers into front-line positions often required walking 15 miles on foot. “That’s why everything is collapsing.”

Russian forces advance in Kursk and curl behind Ukrainian forces

"Over the past four days, Russian troops have cleared as much territory in the Kursk region as they sometimes could not even clear in a couple of months," said a Russian blogger close to the defence ministry who goes by the name Rybar.
"The front has been pierced," said Rybar, adding that Russian forces were curling up inside the Ukrainian border to cut off the main roads leading out of Kursk to Ukraine's Sumy region.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1898915153330016296

Today, France confirmed that Ukrainian Air Force Mirage 2000-5Fs will be outfitted with AASM extended-range guided bombs, giving Ukraine another capable strike platform.

Previously, a French Mirage 2000-5F was tested with a massive loadout of up to 6 AASM-250s.

US Freeze on Ukraine Intel Sharing Just About Lifted, Trump Says

US President Donald Trump said he had largely lifted a freeze on US intelligence sharing with Ukraine as he looked to push both Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table in hopes of brokering a peace deal.

Russian Forces Depleted and Stalling on Eastern Front, Ukraine Says

Ukrainian forces have stalled the Russian offensive in the eastern Donetsk region in recent months and have started to win back small patches of land, according to Ukrainian soldiers and military analysts.
Russia still holds the initiative, and conducts dozens of assaults across the eastern front every day, the soldiers and analysts say. But after more than 15 months on the offensive, Russian brigades have been depleted and Moscow is struggling to replace destroyed equipment, offering limited opportunities that Ukrainian forces are trying to exploit.
“The Russian offensive effort in Donetsk has stalled in recent months due to poor weather, exhaustion among Russian forces, and effective Ukrainian adaptation to the way Russian troops have been fighting,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
While it is too early to say the front has stabilized in Donetsk, he said, the situation has improved as Ukraine finds innovative ways to compensate for its shortage of troops.
Ukrainian soldiers cautioned that they expected the Russians to regroup and intensify offensive efforts to take advantage of the sudden suspension of American military assistance and intelligence sharing, which threatens to undermine the Ukrainian war effort.

Ukrainian soldiers said the lack of intelligence was especially problematic in the Kursk region of Russia, where Russian and North Korean soldiers are on the offensive and have rapidly advanced. Ukraine considers its hold on Kursk to be crucial to use as leverage in any negotiations to end the war. The soldiers, speaking from the front by telephone on Friday and Saturday, requested anonymity to discuss sensitive operations.

A senior U.S. military official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters, said that the pause on sharing intelligence had hurt Ukraine’s ability to detect and attack Russian forces in Kursk and hampered its ability to strike high-value targets.

Russian officials gift meat grinders to mothers of fallen soldiers, sparking outrage

United Russia, President Vladimir Putin's party, was not short of ideas for celebrating International Women's Day on March 8. Among them, the gifting of meat grinders to the mothers of servicemen who had died on the front in Ukraine during ceremonies organized in the Murmansk region, in the far northwest of the country.
The idea was to show that the mothers of heroes had not been forgotten and that the party was taking care of them, in line with the instructions given by the head of the Kremlin, for whom veterans and their families now form the new elite. The gift was an initiative of the local branch of the presidential party. It bragged about it, publishing photos of the recipients with their bouquets of flowers and state-of-the-art meat grinders on the VKontakte network, the equivalent of Facebook.
In Russian, meat grinder (miasorubka) means sending successive waves of infantrymen to attack enemy lines, a tactic regularly used by the Russian army, which has little regard for casualties. The word has become part of the military vocabulary since the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and is widely used by fighters, military bloggers and commentators. In 2023, Russian mercenaries of the Wagner paramilitary group awarded their surviving veterans a medal called the Bakhmout meat grinder, named after the Ukrainian town in the Donbas that it took them over a year to conquer, at the cost of 30,000 dead and wounded.
No sooner had the photos been posted than harsh criticism erupted on Russian social media, with users claiming that the gift was in very poor taste. Surprised by the avalanche of negative reactions, the party decided to close down access to comments on its page, but other platforms posted the photos in their turn, sparking scathing comments about the tactlessness of United Russia officials. "It's black humor!" one user mockingly said. "The minced meat stayed in Ukrainian fields," said another.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukrainian soldiers react to Trump: If we run out of American bullets, we'll find another gun

Soldiers told Business Insider why Trump's decision to stop sending weapons is so problematic and why they plan to keep fighting.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Dezbelief]

Updated: Ukraine strikes Samara Oblast refinery producing fuel for Russian fighter jets, bombers, source claims

The Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery produces jet fuel for supersonic aircraft such as Su-27 fighter planes and Tu-22 bombers, a HUR source claimed.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Amid fierce fighting along the front, Ukraine prepares for U.S. talks

A spokesman for the army, Dmytro Likhovy, said Ukrainian forces had been able to “destroy” most of the Russian attack force by blowing up a segment of the pipeline, but added that the situation on the front line was still “dynamic.”
Russian ground forces from the Kursk region were making repeated attempts to cross Ukraine’s northeastern border in small groups, in a relentless effort to encircle Ukrainian forces, Likhovy said.
“This is how they are managing to build up a presence. Unfortunately they have had some tactical successes,” he said. “Our commanders consider that the situation is under control.”
“The situation is difficult because they control the logistics routes,” said a Ukrainian fighter from the 82nd Brigade, who goes by the call sign Krim. Under military rules, soldiers typically speak on the condition that they’re identified only by call sign or first name. “They attempt meat grinder assaults.”

Andriy, a drone unit commander operating in Kursk, told The Washington Post that the Ukrainian troop withdrawal from some parts of Kursk was to preserve personnel. He said the troops there had yet to feel the impact of the suspension of American military support.
“The Russians are pressing from all directions now — it’s tough, but we are holding on gradually,” he said.

Ukraine Army Chief Syrskyi Says Units in Kursk Not Encircled

During a visit to soldiers on the border with Russia, the Ukrainian military’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said Moscow’s efforts to cut off Ukrainian soldiers holding nearby Russian territory had not succeeded.
The border between Ukraine’s Sumy Region and the Kursk Region remains under Ukraine’s complete control, although settlements along it are almost completely destroyed by Russian attacks, Syrskyi said in a Facebook post on Monday.
“Currently, there is no threat of encirclement of our units in the Kursk region,” Syrskyi said. “The units are taking timely measures to maneuver to advantageous defense lines.”

Ukraine says it's bolstering troops in Russia's Kursk region as Putin's forces advance amid Trump's aid pause

Kyiv is reinforcing its troops involved in fighting in Russia's Kursk region, where Moscow's forces have been regaining ground, Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky said Monday. The move comes ahead of talks between Ukrainian and U.S. officials in Saudi Arabia, as President Trump pushes for a quick ceasefire in the three-year war launched by Russia.

"I made a decision to strengthen our grouping with the necessary forces and means, including electronic warfare and unmanned components," Syrsky wrote in a post on social media on Monday.

Ukraine Hits Moscow With Biggest Ever Drone Attack

Ukraine launched its biggest drone attack on Moscow, targeting the Russian capital and other regions, hours before a Tuesday meeting between senior U.S. and Ukrainian officials to discuss ways to bring an end to the war after more than three years of fighting.

The Russian Ministry of Defense said it had downed more than 300 Ukrainian drones, 91 of which had targeted Moscow. Another 126 were shot down over the Kursk region, the ministry said, where the Ukrainian army has carved out a small toehold in Russian territory. Senior Ukrainian officials were silent on the attack.

The attack came as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other U.S. officials prepared to meet their Ukrainian counterparts in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in the first high-level talks between Washington and Kyiv since a tense Oval Office meeting between President Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky.

Death toll from Moscow drone attack rises to three - Russian official

A third man has died following the Ukrainian drone attack overnight, the head of Moscow's Domodedovo district says in a post on social media.

Earlier we reported two men had died after a "massive" overnight drone attack on Moscow, according to officials. Russian media says the two men are aged 38 and 50 and worked at a car park near Domodedovo airport

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1899363619638309029

Videos of a Ukrainian UAV attack in the Moscow region. Russian officials say that Ukraine launched at least 337 UAVs over night at Russia.

Russia launches overnight attacks in Ukraine - Ukrainian authorities

Ukraine came under Russian attack overnight too, regional authorities report. This includes:

-In the southern port city of Odesa, a fuel tank, a residential house and a warehouse full of children’s toys caught fire after a drone attack
-The northern Sumy region was targeted by Russian drones, artillery and glide bombs. One civilian was injured and five residential houses were damaged
-In the southern city of Kherson, a 40-year-old cyclist sustained injuries after being targeted by a Russian drone attack this morning
-In the eastern Donetsk region, one person was killed and four wounded in Russian attacks on the frontline towns of Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivk
Overall, Russia used one Iskander ballistic missile and 126 drones to attack Ukraine overnight, the Ukrainian air force says.

The missile and 79 of the drones were shot down, it says, adding that another 35 drones did not carry a payload and did not cause any damage.

Marco Rubio Says Talks in Saudi Arabia Key to Resuming Military Support for Ukraine

While the U.S. has put enormous pressure on Ukraine’s armed forces by stopping military aid and reducing intelligence sharing, it has allowed some support to continue.

Rubio said Ukraine is still receiving what he called “defensive intelligence,” which appeared to be a reference to warnings of Russian missile attacks to allow Ukraine to operate its air defenses. He also said Starlink, the satellite-based internet service developed by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, isn’t being cut off. Starlink provides secure communications between Ukrainian troops and their commanders.

Ukraine will propose a limited ceasefire during talks with the US in Saudi Arabia, officials say

A Ukrainian delegation set to meet with America’s top diplomat in Saudi Arabia about ending the 3-year war with Russia will propose a ceasefire covering the Black Sea and long-range missile strikes, as well as the release of prisoners, two senior Ukrainian officials said Monday.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about Tuesday’s meeting, also told The Associated Press that the Ukrainian delegation is ready during the talks to sign an agreement with the United States on access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals — a deal that U.S. President Donald Trump is keen to secure.

A pause on sharing U.S. intelligence that can be used for offensive purposes by Ukrainian forces remains in effect, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter who was not authorized to comment and spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The official suggested that progress could be made toward reinstating intelligence-sharing with Ukraine during the Saudi talks.

 

[Chadstroma]

Beleaguered Russian army resorts to deploying horses, donkeys on Ukraine battlefield to dodge drones

The Moscow mules have allowed Russian forces to sneak by Ukraine’s high-tech defenses and dodge drones that have become deadly efficient at taking out invading armor after three years of brut…

nypost.com

 

[BobbyLayne]

-Cease cyber operations against Russia

http://www.axios.com/2025/03/03/hegseth-trump-russia-cyber-operations-ukraine

-Invite banned Russian State Media into the Oval Office for a meeting with Ukranian president that goes south

http://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/28/tass-oval-office-trump-zelenskyy-00206739

-Cease (pause, technically per the report) Ukrainian aid

Edit - just facts from the last few days

Kudlow: Elon was very clear. I asked him about that. I asked him if it was a foreign source. He was very clear. He said Ukraine. He said Ukraine without any question.


REPORTER: Larry, you’re saying Elon Musk somehow knows for sure that Ukraine is behind this cyberattack? Based on what—his gut feeling?

KUDLOW: Elon was very clear. I asked him if it was a foreign source. He said Ukraine. He said Ukraine without any question.

REPORTER: You do realize how easily IP addresses can be spoofed, right? Hackers use VPNs. Russian cyber ops frequently route attacks through Ukrainian infrastructure to frame them. You’re taking Musk’s word over basic cybersecurity 101?

KUDLOW: Well, he has access to advanced data—

REPORTER: No, he has access to Twitter servers, not classified intelligence. Even U.S. agencies aren’t backing this claim. But somehow, Elon—who has been pushing Kremlin-friendly narratives—just “knows” it was Ukraine?

KUDLOW: I think it’s fair to ask questions!

REPORTER: Then why aren’t you asking questions about Russian cyber ops? Because let’s be real, if a cyberattack helps Putin’s agenda, there’s a 99% chance it came from Russia. But instead of looking at the obvious culprit, Musk immediately blames Ukraine—just like when he denied them Starlink access in Crimea. Why do you think that is?

KUDLOW: Look, Ukraine hasn’t exactly been grateful…

REPORTER: Oh, right, the “not grateful enough” argument. First Trump complains about Zelenskyy not saying ‘thank you’ loud enough, now Musk is pinning cyberattacks on Ukraine with zero proof. Are we really basing foreign policy on bruised egos?

KUDLOW: It’s about accountability!

REPORTER: Then hold Russia accountable. Hold Musk accountable. Because what you’re doing is taking a known propaganda tactic—using Russia’s own cyberwarfare tricks—and spinning it to undermine a U.S. ally. That’s not accountability, Larry. That’s being played.

Kudlow = Larry Kudlow, Reporter = Brett Baier

https://x.com/Last_DayWithYou/status/1899223384652763307

Forbes - Cyberattack on X claimed by Dark Storm Team

Dark Storm is a pro-Palestinian hacktivist collective with ties to KillNet (for hire Russian hackers.) On Telegram they posted screenshots from Check Host to support their claims they were responsible for the DoS attacks on X.

 

[ghostguy123]

Is Kudlow being intentionally obtuse there?
Also, I saw Musk say the IP originated from Ukraine, but I didnt see him say he is confident that Ukraine was behind it (maybe he did, but I didnt see that).

 

[rockaction]

Is Kudlow being intentionally obtuse there?

Yes. If you don't follow politics (as you say) then you might not know Larry Kudlow and you might not know that he's basically a walking op-ed article and partisan personality, so yes, he is being deliberately obtuse. Or, less politely, we call it obfuscating, misdirecting, and maybe even knowingly lying, which seems pretty obvious from that clip. And that's Brett Baier of Fox News, which makes it a double whammy oof for Kudlow.

 

[ghostguy123]

Is Kudlow being intentionally obtuse there?

Yes. If you don't follow politics (as you say) then you might not know Larry Kudlow and you might not know that he's basically a walking op-ed article and partisan personality, so yes, he is being deliberately obtuse. Or, less politely, we call it obfuscating, misdirecting, and maybe even knowingly lying, which seems pretty obvious from that clip. And that's Brett Baier of Fox News, which makes it a double whammy oof for Kudlow.

Right, ok. I was just making sure that I was reading that right.

 

[rockaction]

Is Kudlow being intentionally obtuse there?

Yes. If you don't follow politics (as you say) then you might not know Larry Kudlow and you might not know that he's basically a walking op-ed article and partisan personality, so yes, he is being deliberately obtuse. Or, less politely, we call it obfuscating, misdirecting, and maybe even knowingly lying, which seems pretty obvious from that clip. And that's Brett Baier of Fox News, which makes it a double whammy oof for Kudlow.

Right, ok. I was just making sure that I was reading that right.

I think you were indeed reading it correctly, man. In turn, I was simply confirming you were most likely reading that right.

 

[tymarsas]

Also, I saw Musk say the IP originated from Ukraine, but I didnt see him say he is confident that Ukraine was behind it (maybe he did, but I didnt see that).

This is my understanding as well. Musk said the IPs originated in Ukraine. He also said that a large group or country was involved. I haven't seen him actually blame Ukraine. But saying those things will cause many people to blame Ukraine. It's good to be transparent, but I also think it is a bit irresponsible to say those things without having all the information. It will make people jump to conclusions that are not necessarily true.

 

[ghostguy123]

Also, I saw Musk say the IP originated from Ukraine, but I didnt see him say he is confident that Ukraine was behind it (maybe he did, but I didnt see that).

This is my understanding as well. Musk said the IPs originated in Ukraine. He also said that a large group or country was involved. I haven't seen him actually blame Ukraine. But saying those things will cause many people to blame Ukraine. It's good to be transparent, but I also think it is a bit irresponsible to say those things without having all the information. It will make people jump to conclusions that are not necessarily true.

He was asked a question and answered it.
But yeah, unfortunately the majority of people are not smart (or are intentionally trying to put false accusations in his mouth, shocker something like THAT could ever happen).

I mean, it wouldnt even make sense for Ukraine to do that anyway.

 

[The Duff Man]

If you have not, please read Chapter 1 of Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marhsall. it was written in 2015. The fist Chapter is about Russia with a focus on it's western border being the North European Plain and NATO's encroachment for various reasons being an instigator of the invasion of Ukraine. It 95% predicts exactly what has happened for the last 4 years. I view it as a modern georgraphy lesson and easy to read. Kind of a modern version of The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers

This article, on the same subject and written by the same author after the invasion likely hits the important parts of the book.

Why Russia is a prisoner of geography

Haunted by the nightmares of history, Vladimir Putin is the latest Russian leader to use violence and occupation to control the European flatlands to the west.

www.newstatesman.com

I appreciate info like this, as it helps in understanding real motive, which to me is key to reaching peace.

It is easy to say “Putin wants to recreate the USSR”. But WHY? If the only answer is “he is power hungry” or “wants to recreate past glory” that is missing the full point. Although both may be true.

In his mind, Putin is the hero who is defending Russia. Messed up as that is, that is the person who has to be negotiated with for the war to end.

 

[Chadstroma]

If you have not, please read Chapter 1 of Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marhsall. it was written in 2015. The fist Chapter is about Russia with a focus on it's western border being the North European Plain and NATO's encroachment for various reasons being an instigator of the invasion of Ukraine. It 95% predicts exactly what has happened for the last 4 years. I view it as a modern georgraphy lesson and easy to read. Kind of a modern version of The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers

This article, on the same subject and written by the same author after the invasion likely hits the important parts of the book.

Why Russia is a prisoner of geography

Haunted by the nightmares of history, Vladimir Putin is the latest Russian leader to use violence and occupation to control the European flatlands to the west.

www.newstatesman.com

I appreciate info like this, as it helps in understanding real motive, which to me is key to reaching peace.

It is easy to say “Putin wants to recreate the USSR”. But WHY? If the only answer is “he is power hungry” or “wants to recreate past glory” that is missing the full point. Although both may be true.

In his mind, Putin is the hero who is defending Russia. Messed up as that is, that is the person who has to be negotiated with for the war to end.

Both are absolutely true and it goes well further beyond in all the reasons as is the case with most things. Putin laments the fall of the Soviet Union, not for the communism but for the loss of Empire. Putin wants Russia to be a superpower again and influence the world. He wants to be that great Russian leader that did that.

You can see how this drives Poland, for example, to invest heavily in its military. It has been going on a spending spree to arm itself. The Baltic states as well but they don't have as much economic muscle to do the same as Poland.

Germany must step up. It has been unfair that the US has carried the burden of defense for Europe since WWIi while Germany has a ghost of a military that is woefully unprepared for doing maneuvers let along defending the country or taking part of a defense of NATO. The economic power of Germany is double that of Russia. In fact, the UK, France, Italy and Canada all have larger economies than Russia. Yet, NATO is reliant on the US for it's protection.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Western Officials Say Putin Knows His Ukraine Terms Won’t Be Met

Western security officials said Russian President Vladimir Putin has no intention to compromise on demands on land, peacekeepers and Ukraine’s neutrality in any peace talks, complicating President Donald Trump’s efforts to secure a credible settlement.
Putin has made deliberately “maximalist” demands ahead of negotiations to end the war, which he knows will likely be unacceptable to Ukrainians and other Europeans, according to the security officials. The Russian leader is prepared to continue fighting if he doesn’t get his goals, said the officials, who asked not to be named discussing matters that haven’t been made public.

In remarks to Russian diplomats in June, Putin indicated that he would require international recognition of Moscow’s claims to annexed Ukrainian land, which includes territory not currently controlled by his troops. He has said since the start of the invasion that he wanted the “demilitarization” of Ukraine, implying he would seek limits on its own army.
That’s likely to be another point of disagreement, since an adequately manned and equipped military is crucial to guaranteeing Ukraine’s security, several European officials said.

Europe should reject calls to demilitarise Ukraine, French armed forced minister says

Crucially, the French minister said that France would “refuse any demilitarisation of the Ukrainian army,” considering it an important part of any future security architecture.

Deprived of US intelligence support, Ukraine loses ground in Russia's Kursk region

Whether or not the operation took the Ukrainians by surprise, they are clearly in a bad position in the Kursk region. Over the past week, the Russians have retaken one-sixth of the territory controlled by Kyiv. They are operating a double pincer movement that threatens to cut off supply routes between Ukrainian territory and the fortified town of Sudhza. On Monday, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrsky, nevertheless insisted that "there is no risk of encirclement" of the soldiers defending Sudhza.
Independent Russian military expert Ian Matveyev noted that Ukrainian soldiers withdrew without engaging in heavy fighting from several localities around Sudhza, suggesting a pragmatic approach aimed at reducing human and material losses in the face of a stronger Russian enemy. Russian propaganda Telegram channels have shown a dozen corpses of servicemen, but so far have not documented the capture of any large groups of Ukrainian soldiers.
According to Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko, the main factor explaining the rapid evolution of the front around Sudhza is the disproportion of forces. Estimates that are more or less accepted on both sides put the number of soldiers on the Russian side at 60,000, compared with 10,000 on the Ukrainian side.

According to Kovalenko, the intelligence freeze means that the Ukrainian army can no longer see the Russian air force preparing an attack, nor the Orion and Forpost drones, which can observe or strike its positions without risk. "Finding alternatives to the Americans, particularly with French intelligence, will take some time, and this is a window of opportunity that the Russians have pounced on," continued the analyst.

Russian Oil Flows Surge in Sign US Sanctions Starting to Crumble

US sanctions on Russia’s tanker fleet are showing signs of starting to falter, as a clutch of blacklisted vessels loaded for the first time in more than a year to power a surge in the country’s crude shipments.
Washington’s measures have been instrumental in restricting Moscow’s ability to ship its oil and raise funds for the war in Ukraine. But in recent days, three blacklisted vessels loaded cargoes of Russia’s flagship Pacific grade and sailed from the country’s main regional port. And satellite imagery suggests that more ships are leaving anchorages west of the port of Nakhodka, where they’ve idled since being sanctioned.

Crude flows from all Russian ports in the four weeks to March 9 jumped by about 300,000 barrels a day — the biggest gain since January 2023 — to 3.37 million, the highest since the period to Nov. 10.

Before Biden’s Jan. 10 sanctions package, India was the destination for about 60% of Russia’s Arctic crude exports, taking about 64 million barrels last year. It was also the landing place for about 14 million barrels of Sokol crude from the Sakhalin 1 project in the first nine months of 2024, equivalent to almost 30% of total shipments in that period, though that trade dried up in the final quarter of last year.
No cargoes of Russia’s Arctic crude loaded after Jan. 10 have been delivered to India, vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s despite ports on India’s west coast initially being identified as their destinations in shipping data.
Instead of being delivered, some cargoes have been transferred covertly onto other ships off the coast of Oman. Those ships, where it’s been possible to identify them, appear to be heading for China. Other cargoes are heading directly to China.
Almost all of the 15 million barrels loaded from the Arctic since the Jan. 10 sanctions appear to be going on far longer voyages than originally planned, leaving the oil at sea for months.

High spending pushes Russia's budget deficit to $31.5 bln in Jan-Feb

Soaring government spending pushed Russia's budget deficit to 2.70 trillion roubles ($31.45 billion) in the first two months of 2025, the finance ministry said on Tuesday, adding that low oil prices could squeeze Moscow's crucial energy revenues.
Spending has jumped in the last three years, with Moscow channelling funds into its military and defence sector as it prosecutes its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Russia's 2024 fiscal shortfall was around $34 billion, or 1.7% of GDP.
The finance ministry puts this year's early spending spree down to the advance payment of contracts.
Russia's deficit for the first two months of 2025 amounted to 1.3% of gross domestic product (GDP), compared with 0.6% of GDP or 1.13 billion roubles in the same period last year.
For January-February 2025, spending stood at 8.05 trillion roubles, 30.6% higher year-on-year, the ministry's preliminary data showed, but slowed from January to February.
Budget revenues were 5.34 trillion roubles, up 6.3% year-on- year, led by non-oil and gas revenues, which climbed 11.1% to 3.78 trillion roubles.
The increased spending is fuelling higher inflation and the central bank regularly cites the huge fiscal stimulus as a factor that forces it to keep interest rates elevated.

Moscow expects the deficit to narrow to 0.5% of GDP this year thanks to increased tax revenues and reduced social spending in real terms.
However, falling oil prices, which earlier this month sank to their lowest since late 2021, and the rouble strengthening on hopes of easing geopolitical tensions, could complicate matters.
The energy sector generates about a third of all Russian budget revenues, so any prolonged drop in the oil price is likely to put upward pressure on the deficit. January-February energy revenues were down 3.7%, the ministry said last week.

 

[fatness]

Ukraine has agreed to an immediate 30-day ceasefire negotiated by the United States if Russia accepts the plan.

"As part of the plan, the United States immediately lifted its pause on sharing intelligence with Ukraine, and will resume security assistance to that country."

 

[BobbyLayne]

Ukraine has agreed to an immediate 30-day ceasefire negotiated by the United States if Russia accepts the plan.

"As part of the plan, the United States immediately lifted its pause on sharing intelligence with Ukraine, and will resume security assistance to that country."

behind the NYT firewall

U.S. Agrees to Resume Military Assistance to Ukraine​

The announcement followed talks in Saudi Arabia where Kyiv said it would support the Trump administration’s proposal for a 30-day cease-fire with Russia.

 

[Chadstroma]

U.S. to Restore Military Support to Ukraine After It Agrees to Cease-Fire​

JEDDAH, Saudi Arabia—The Trump administration said it would immediately lift a pause on intelligence sharing and military support to Ukraine, as Kyiv agreed to implement a 30-day cease-fire in top level talks with U.S. officials.

The plan, which is contingent on Russian acceptance, was outlined in a statement issued by Ukraine and the U.S.

“Today we made an offer which the Ukrainians have accepted, which is to enter into a cease-fire and into immediate negotiations to end this conflict in a way that’s enduring and sustainable and accounts for their interests, their security, their ability to prosper as a nation,” said Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

“We will take this offer now to the Russians and we hope that they’ll say ‘yes,’ that they’ll say ‘yes’ to peace. The ball is now in their court,” he added.

The Tuesday meeting was the first high-level talks between U.S. and Ukrainian officials since a combative Oval Office encounter in which President Trump accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of being unwilling to negotiate a peace settlement with Moscow.

Following that White House session, Trump had cut off arms shipments and reduced the flow of intelligence to Kyiv. That move was followed by an accelerated Russian and North Korean campaign to roll back Ukrainian gains in Kursk, a portion of Russian territory seized by Kyiv’s forces last year.

Hours before the talks in Jeddah began, Ukraine launched the largest drone attack on Moscow of the war, targeting the Russian capital and other regions. Moscow authorities said the attack led to at least one death and injured 14 people.

Zelensky had insisted he was ready to pursue peace talks, but had said that Ukraine would need Western-backed security guarantees to ensure that a prospective deal holds, assurances that Trump had been reluctant to provide.

And in recent days Ukrainian officials have suggested that an initial step toward peace could be a cease-fire on Russian and Ukrainian air and naval attacks.

U.S. officials hadn’t said what specific steps the Ukrainians need to take for American military support to resume, but had suggested it would need to go beyond a cease-fire.

“We’re not going to be sitting in a room drawing lines on a map, but just get a general sense of what concessions are in the realm of the possible for them and what they would need in return,” Rubio said before the cease-fire announcement. “And then find out what the Russian position is in that regard. And that’ll give us a pretty good assessment of how far apart we truly are.”

Any potential settlement, Rubio had said, would entail concessions on both sides. “The Russians can’t conquer all of Ukraine, and obviously it will be very difficult for Ukraine in any reasonable time period to sort of force the Russians back all the way to where they were in 2014,” Rubio had said. “So the only solution to this war is diplomacy and getting them to a table where that’s possible.”

Rubio and Mike Waltz, Trump’s national security adviser, were representing the U.S. in the Tuesday meeting. During a break, three hours in to the meeting, Waltz told reporters “We’re getting there.”

The Ukrainian side is represented by Andriy Yermak, Zelensky’s top adviser, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Pavlo Palisa, a Ukrainian officer who works for the presidential administration.

“It’s an important topic, but it’s not the main topic on the agenda,” Rubio said.

The selection of Jeddah as a setting for the U.S.-Ukraine talks appears to be an effort by the Trump administration to convey that it is an impartial arbiter in the conflict that began with Russia’s full-scale invasion of its smaller neighbor more than three years ago.

Instead of traveling to Kyiv like then-President Biden and his top aides, Trump’s team is meeting with their counterparts on neutral ground in Saudi Arabia as they did with the Russians in Riyadh last month.

Retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine who has worked closely with Zelensky, isn’t at the talks, though some of his aides are attending.

While the U.S. has put enormous pressure on Ukraine’s armed forces by stopping military aid and reducing intelligence sharing, it has allowed some support to continue.


Rubio said Ukraine is still receiving what he called “defensive intelligence,” which appeared to be a reference to warnings of Russian missile attacks to allow Ukraine to operate its air defenses. He also said Starlink, the satellite-based internet service developed by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, isn’t being cut off. Starlink provides secure communications between Ukrainian troops and their commanders.

Still, the Trump administration’s sharp pressure on Ukraine stands in contrast to its posture toward Russia. While Trump has warned that he might impose tariffs or take other economic steps if Russia isn’t forthcoming in potential peace talks, he has taken no concrete actions to pressure the Kremlin since his inauguration.

Far from signaling flexibility, Russia has doubled down on its key demands. Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected a British and French proposal to deploy peacekeeping troops to ensure that a future peace agreement isn’t violated by Russia—a European proposal that Trump has welcomed.


Russia has also continued its military offensive in Kursk aimed at depriving Kyiv of a potential bargaining chip in any negotiations by pushing Ukrainian forces out of the Russian province.

And in U.S. and Russian talks in Riyadh, Lavrov brushed aside the idea of establishing a moratorium on Russian and Ukrainian attacks on each side’s energy infrastructure. Lavrov told reporters that American officials had floated the proposal and that he responded that Russia doesn’t attack power sources that supply Ukraine’s population—an assertion that American officials have long dismissed.

Rubio said that additional talks would be needed with the Russians to pin down their bottom line and determine whether the Kremlin is prepared to be flexible on core issues in potential peace talks.

No summit meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet been planned, he said.


After arriving in Jeddah, Rubio and Waltz met Monday night with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s day-to-day leader. Those talks centered on the turmoil in Syria, threats to international shipping from the Houthis in Yemen, and the hopes for a political solution in Gaza, which the Americans said couldn’t include a role for Hamas.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Saudi Arabia winning the Humanitarian Race with so many peace talks taking place in their palaces
The Saudis have an embassy in DC where all this could have taken place, you just take Khashoggi Way, runs right past the front door