*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (3 Viewers)

[Redwes25]

Ukraine has agreed to an immediate 30-day ceasefire negotiated by the United States if Russia accepts the plan.

"As part of the plan, the United States immediately lifted its pause on sharing intelligence with Ukraine, and will resume security assistance to that country."

Feels like Ukraine is trying to call Russia's bluff. I highly doubt they will just agree to a cease-fire but maybe I am wrong.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine has agreed to an immediate 30-day ceasefire negotiated by the United States if Russia accepts the plan.

"As part of the plan, the United States immediately lifted its pause on sharing intelligence with Ukraine, and will resume security assistance to that country."

Feels like Ukraine is trying to call Russia's bluff. I highly doubt they will just agree to a cease-fire but maybe I am wrong.

It doesn't matter to Ukraine really. They had to.... they need the support from the US and if there is no cease fire then we should see the US start to turn the screws on Russia. if there is, they can dig in their positions more as they are clearly on the defensive along the entire front. Their units need the rest and refit. I don't see it being a negative in any way for them to agree. However it hashes out, an agreement to the ceasefire was the right decision.

 

[The Z Machine]

We'll see if Russia will even contemplate a cease fire. I think not.

 

[Redwes25]

Ukraine has agreed to an immediate 30-day ceasefire negotiated by the United States if Russia accepts the plan.

"As part of the plan, the United States immediately lifted its pause on sharing intelligence with Ukraine, and will resume security assistance to that country."

Feels like Ukraine is trying to call Russia's bluff. I highly doubt they will just agree to a cease-fire but maybe I am wrong.

It doesn't matter to Ukraine really. They had to.... they need the support from the US and if there is no cease fire then we should see the US start to turn the screws on Russia. if there is, they can dig in their positions more as they are clearly on the defensive along the entire front. Their units need the rest and refit. I don't see it being a negative in any way for them to agree. However it hashes out, an agreement to the ceasefire was the right decision.

I don't think they wanted to but with Trump knee-capping them they didn't have a choice.

 

[BassNBrew]

Ukraine has agreed to an immediate 30-day ceasefire negotiated by the United States if Russia accepts the plan.

"As part of the plan, the United States immediately lifted its pause on sharing intelligence with Ukraine, and will resume security assistance to that country."

Feels like Ukraine is trying to call Russia's bluff. I highly doubt they will just agree to a cease-fire but maybe I am wrong.

It doesn't matter to Ukraine really. They had to.... they need the support from the US and if there is no cease fire then we should see the US start to turn the screws on Russia. if there is, they can dig in their positions more as they are clearly on the defensive along the entire front. Their units need the rest and refit. I don't see it being a negative in any way for them to agree. However it hashes out, an agreement to the ceasefire was the right decision.

I don't think they wanted to but with recent events they didn't have a choice.

Please consider editing to this or something similar.

 

[Chadstroma]

Germany’s military is struggling as Trump tests NATO, report shows

Germany’s Bundeswehr remains atrophying and ill-equipped despite political leaders’ repeated vows to reverse the force’s decline.

www.politico.eu

 

[Dezbelief]

Ukraine’s Best European Missile Just Shot Down Its First Russian Jet

The Ukrainian air force has two SAMP/T batteries—and needs more.

www.forbes.com

One of Ukraine’s two SAMP/T surface-to-air missile batteries has shot down a Russian warplane for the first time. That’s obvious good news for Ukraine, which could rely more on the Franco-Italian air defense system—Europe’s answer to the American Patriot.

But the news belies the scarcity of SAMP/Ts—and their Aster missiles—not just in Ukraine, but everywhere.

“There is a confirmed aircraft,” Yuriy Ihnat, a Ukrainian air force spokesman, said at a recent industry event. Ukraine has received separate SAMP/T batteries, each with radars and launchers, from France and Italy. A $500-million SAMP/T battery can hit aircraft and missiles from 90 miles away.

It’s the only Western alternative to the Patriot, around six batteries of which Ukraine has received from the United States, Germany, Romania and The Netherlands.

Kyiv is badly in need of a backup plan for intercepting Russian planes and missiles amid the geopolitical chaos...

Without reliable access to American Patriots, Ukraine could lose—at least temporarily—much of its protection from Russian bombardment.

The two SAMP/Ts and six Patriots the Ukrainian air force currently operates should, in theory, provide slightly more than the bare minimum of long-range air-defense coverage of the biggest Ukrainian cities. Last year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country needed at least seven of the best air defense batteries.

The main problem with both systems is the supply of missiles. It’s unclear how many missiles Ukraine has received

U.S. firm Lockheed Martin produces around 500 Patriot missiles a year—and hopes to ramp up to 650 a year by 2027. A new Patriot missile plant is under construction in Germany, but will need years to tool up. Lockheed’s target for global Patriot production is just 750 missiles a year.

The SAMP/T’s Aster missiles are even scarcer. France and Italy ordered 700 Asters in 2022. France, Italy and the United Kingdom, which fires Asters from warships, paid for an additional 220 missiles last week. Some of these missiles could make their way to Ukraine. More likely, they’ll replace older Asters the three countries donate to Kyiv.

But European missile-maker MBDA needs around two years to produce a single Aster. That’s a few months longer than it takes Lockheed to produce a Patriot—and clearly too slow to save Ukraine.

 

[The Z Machine]

Ukraine’s Best European Missile Just Shot Down Its First Russian Jet

The Ukrainian air force has two SAMP/T batteries—and needs more.

www.forbes.com

One of Ukraine’s two SAMP/T surface-to-air missile batteries has shot down a Russian warplane for the first time. That’s obvious good news for Ukraine, which could rely more on the Franco-Italian air defense system—Europe’s answer to the American Patriot.

But the news belies the scarcity of SAMP/Ts—and their Aster missiles—not just in Ukraine, but everywhere.

“There is a confirmed aircraft,” Yuriy Ihnat, a Ukrainian air force spokesman, said at a recent industry event. Ukraine has received separate SAMP/T batteries, each with radars and launchers, from France and Italy. A $500-million SAMP/T battery can hit aircraft and missiles from 90 miles away.

It’s the only Western alternative to the Patriot, around six batteries of which Ukraine has received from the United States, Germany, Romania and The Netherlands.

Kyiv is badly in need of a backup plan for intercepting Russian planes and missiles amid the geopolitical chaos...

Without reliable access to American Patriots, Ukraine could lose—at least temporarily—much of its protection from Russian bombardment.

The two SAMP/Ts and six Patriots the Ukrainian air force currently operates should, in theory, provide slightly more than the bare minimum of long-range air-defense coverage of the biggest Ukrainian cities. Last year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country needed at least seven of the best air defense batteries.

The main problem with both systems is the supply of missiles. It’s unclear how many missiles Ukraine has received

U.S. firm Lockheed Martin produces around 500 Patriot missiles a year—and hopes to ramp up to 650 a year by 2027. A new Patriot missile plant is under construction in Germany, but will need years to tool up. Lockheed’s target for global Patriot production is just 750 missiles a year.

The SAMP/T’s Aster missiles are even scarcer. France and Italy ordered 700 Asters in 2022. France, Italy and the United Kingdom, which fires Asters from warships, paid for an additional 220 missiles last week. Some of these missiles could make their way to Ukraine. More likely, they’ll replace older Asters the three countries donate to Kyiv.

But European missile-maker MBDA needs around two years to produce a single Aster. That’s a few months longer than it takes Lockheed to produce a Patriot—and clearly too slow to save Ukraine.

That's a ridiculous amount of time to make a missile. Maybe an entire plane could take that long and surely a capital ship would take much longer but a consumable missile? They need to ramp that up. I wonder what the constraints are on that production speed.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Putin launches drone strikes on Kyiv hours after POTUS challenged him to 'tango' and agree Ukraine ceasefire​

Putin launches strikes on Ukraine hours after Kyiv agreed to ceasefire

The massive missile and drone attacks cast doubt on Vladimir Putin's willingness to accept Donald Trump's demands for peace in the three year war.

www.dailymail.co.uk

-Disgusting response from Russia overnight

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia says it's waiting to hear from US on Ukraine 30-day ceasefire plan

A senior Russian source told Reuters earlier that Russia would need to hash out the terms of any ceasefire and get some sort of guarantees.
"It is difficult for Putin to agree to this in its current form," the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation, told Reuters. "Putin has a strong position because Russia is advancing."

Ukraine war latest: Ceasefire deal announced as troops withdraw from Kursk

Another senior Russian source said the ceasefire looked like a trap from Moscow’s perspective, with Putin finding it hard to halt the war without concrete guarantees.

A third source said the big picture was that the United States had agreed to resume military aid and intelligence sharing and had decorated that move with a ceasefire proposal.

https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1899746829052342424

After seven months of combat against the Russian and North Korean military, Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from the Russian region of Kursk.

Institute for the Study of War

The United States and Ukraine agreed on March 11 to an immediate 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine contingent on Russia's agreement, and the United States reportedly restarted intelligence sharing and military aid. US and Ukrainian representatives met in

www.understandingwar.org

Russian forces continue to make confirmed advances in Kursk Oblast and have likely begun attacking Sudzha. Geolocated footage published on March 11 indicates that Russian forces recently seized Bondarevka (east of Sudzha), Zamostye, and Makhnovka (both southeast of Sudzha). Additional geolocated footage published on March 10 and 11 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced into central Zazulevka (north of Sudzha), in the southeastern outskirts of Kolmakov (southeast of Sudzha), and south of Kurilovka (south of Sudzha)

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1899715587451863524

Russian troops from 11th Air Assault Brigade and 2nd Spetsnaz Brigade near the administration building in the western part of Sudzha, Kursk Oblast (shown on @Deepstate_UA map).

Ukraine dismisses general as Russia advances in Kursk

The Ukrainian general responsible for the defence of the north of the country, including the capital Kyiv and the Sumy region — where fighting continues against Russian troops attempting to push over the border from Kursk — has been dismissed.

Dmytro Krasylnykov was dismissed on March 7, he confirmed to local media this morning. He will continue serving in the reserves.

UK rules out donating Typhoon jets to Ukraine

The UK Ministry of Defence has repeatedly assessed the possibility of donating Tranche 1 Typhoon jets to Ukraine but has decided against it, according to Defence Minister Luke Pollard.
In response to a parliamentary question from Conservative MP Mark Francois, Pollard confirmed that the UK will instead continue its focus on supporting European F-16 donations to Ukraine.

Pollard noted that “Denmark and the Netherlands announced they would donate up to 61 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, which is significantly greater than the number of Tranche 1 Typhoons in RAF service.”

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1899748450821865515

Poland’s Deputy Defense Minister has confirmed that US weapons are flowing from Poland into Ukraine again.

Russia rejects proposals of peacekeeping troops in Ukraine, again

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has yet again rejected proposals for a peacekeeping force to be deployed to Ukraine.

"I am mostly amazed with this peacekeepers obsession," he says, speaking in English. "This would be not a group, a force keeping peace."

America Turns to Ukraine to Build Better Drones

With America’s drone technology a disappointment on the battlefield, defense startups have joined forces with Ukrainian manufacturers to build better, war-proven aircraft for the U.S. military.

U.S. startups have spent billions of venture-capital dollars in hopes of developing the small drones that the Pentagon says it needs for future conflicts, but many have produced only expensive aircraft that don’t fly very well. Ukrainian drone makers, meanwhile, have mastered mass-producing drones despite limited resources and are looking for new customers and capital.

Now, the two sides are coming together, and the unlikely pairing is getting attention from the Defense Department.

Southern California startup CX2 last year struck a deal to put its software and sensors on Ukrainian drones, a matchup that has received approval from a branch of the U.S. military and might soon arm American forces.

“No U.S. company is keeping up with Ukraine,” said CX2 co-founder Nathan Mintz. “You know their stuff works. They’ve got the ultimate high-stakes laboratory meant to battle-proof all this stuff.”

Ukrainian drones often sell for one-tenth the price of American options. They have proven on the battlefield that they can work when radio and satellite communication is blocked by electronic jamming.

American startups are slower to build, deliver and update their drones, which also have often failed to weather severe electronic warfare. Many U.S. companies that brought their drones to Ukraine watched them fall out of the sky or fail to complete missions.

The Defense Innovation Unit, or DIU, an arm of the Defense Department that sources new technology for the military, for the first time awarded contracts in recent weeks to two Ukrainian-American partnerships. The companies will test their long-range attack drones this spring in Ukraine, where the drones are manufactured, and then have an opportunity to compete for production contracts with the Pentagon.

“We want the best, and we see the capabilities we need in Ukraine,” said Trent Emeneker, a contractor with the DIU who helps manage its autonomous-systems portfolio.

The DIU has—also for the first time—chosen a Ukrainian drone maker to add to its list of approved potential suppliers for the U.S. military.

The company, Skyfall, has completed more than 1.5 million missions for Ukraine and builds thousands of drones a day. Skyfall’s bomber drones—loaded with software and a sensor package from CX2—will likely be offered to the U.S. military this year if they pass certain security tests.

Another Pittsburgh startup, KEF Robotics, formed a joint venture with Ukrainian company Sensorama Lab to build software and sensor systems in Kyiv that will enable drones to navigate in jammed airspace and locate targets while remaining relatively undetected. The joint venture, called Blue Arrow, has orders from European militaries and is raising funding from U.S. venture capitalists. It will test its drones with an elite Ukrainian unit on the front lines within the next two weeks.

“Nobody stateside is keeping up with the level of production that’s happening in Ukraine,” said Olga Pogoda, a co-founder of Blue Arrow.

 

[beer 30]

We'll see if Russia will even contemplate a cease fire. I think not.

There's your answer

Putin launches drone strikes on Kyiv hours after POTUS challenged him to 'tango' and agree Ukraine ceasefire​

Putin launches strikes on Ukraine hours after Kyiv agreed to ceasefire

The massive missile and drone attacks cast doubt on Vladimir Putin's willingness to accept Donald Trump's demands for peace in the three year war.

www.dailymail.co.uk

-Disgusting response from Russia overnight

 

[Chadstroma]

We'll see if Russia will even contemplate a cease fire. I think not.

There's your answer

Putin launches drone strikes on Kyiv hours after POTUS challenged him to 'tango' and agree Ukraine ceasefire​

Putin launches strikes on Ukraine hours after Kyiv agreed to ceasefire

The massive missile and drone attacks cast doubt on Vladimir Putin's willingness to accept Donald Trump's demands for peace in the three year war.

www.dailymail.co.uk

-Disgusting response from Russia overnight

If Russia rejects it, I am excited to see what the US does to pressure them to the peace table.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Putin Likely to Drag Out Ukraine Truce Talks to Seek His Terms

Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to try to drag out the timeline for agreeing to any halt to fighting in Ukraine to make sure the most favorable terms possible are secured for Moscow, several people with knowledge of the situation said.

While the Russian leader will probably agree to eventual truce terms with Ukraine, he wants to make sure his own conditions are included beforehand, according to a person familiar with the Kremlin’s thinking.

Russian officials didn’t discuss with their US counterparts the specific deal that the Ukrainian delegation agreed to in the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah on Tuesday, and the Kremlin finds that framework unacceptable, the person said.

https://x.com/ABarbashin/status/1899738243207254155

Russian Federation Council(Senate) is quite skeptical about the 30-day ceasefire, his arguments are:
- we need our own conditions, not just what Americans give us
- we are currently advancing in Ukraine, this ceasefire is good for Ukraine, not Russia

Kremlin quiet on ceasefire proposal, Russian milbloggers call it 'pure treachery'

By the afternoon of March 12, the only thing close to an official Russian position on developments was an evasive answer from Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov when asked by journalists about the proposal.
"Look, you are getting a little ahead of yourselves. We don't want to do that," he said, explaining the topic must first be discussed with the American side.
Prominent Russian state TV propagandists are also uncharacteristically quiet on the topic. Vladimir Solovyov stuck to official reports coming out of the meeting during the day, while Olga Skabeyeva simply asked, "What would we get in return?"
But less constrained by the official Kremlin line, Russia's vibrant and vocal community of pro-war military bloggers, or milbloggers, were more forthcoming in their appraisal of the ceasefire proposal.
“Any ceasefire at this stage is pure treachery and sabotage," the milbogger channel Ngp Razvedka, which has almost 100,000 subscribers, said.

The theme of a ceasefire being an opportunity for Ukrainian forces to regroup and rearm was repeated by several other milbloggers — Two Majors, which has over 1.2 million subscribers, said the pause in fighting would allow them to "lick their wounds."
"The truce proposal is actually Minsk-3, which will give the Ukrainian Armed Forces an opportunity to strengthen and rearm," milblogger Yuriy Podolyaka, told his more than 3 million subscribers.
"After that, the war will continue in much worse conditions for us. Therefore, we will not agree, that much is obvious."

Ukraine's military 'preserving maximum of lives of our soldiers' in Kursk Oblast, Zelensky says

Roman Kostenko, secretary of the parliamentary defense committee, acknowledged that the situation in Kursk Oblast is "complicated" but said Ukrainian forces are working to stabilize the front line.

"I talked to the soldiers in the morning; they do not confirm our complete withdrawal from Sudzha... I have no information that our troops have completely left Sudzha as of two hours ago," Kostenko said at a press briefing.

Ukraine on verge of losing Kursk pocket, its foothold inside Russia

Skadovskyi Defender, a Ukrainian military blogger, posted on Telegram: "Ukraine's Armed Forces are leaving Kursk. There will be no Ukrainian soldier there by Friday."
The same channel said, however, that Ukraine was continuing to conduct heavy strikes on Sudzha.

Reuters could not verify the accounts from either side because of reporting restrictions.
Independent Russian analyst Ruslan Leviev said the Ukrainian incursion was drawing to a close.
"Maybe this story will end today. Maybe they (the Ukrainians) will try to hold the border villages for another couple of days. But overall, the story of the Kursk bridgehead is coming to an end, and Ukrainian troops are leaving," he told Dozhd TV.

Video: https://x.com/sambendett/status/1899810758180966444

Russian drone ambush tactics: A Rubicon Center pilot in the Sudzha salient flew to the crossroads and "sat" in ambush for the retreating Ukrainian columns. Once one column passed, he lifted the drone from the ground and launched his attack with minimal warning.

On Kursk: https://x.com/RuslanLeviev/status/1899746035632628034

The turning point was when Russian forces established fire control over the supply route of Ukrainian troops. This happened a couple of days before the halt of U.S. aid

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1899831430642901370

An AFU serviceman from a unit in Kursk Oblast claimed that North Korean troops were involved in the attack through the gas pipeline near Sudzha and seemed better trained than before. He claimed Ukraine defeated most the Russian attackers and could’ve stabilized the situation but had no “fresh forces” available to do so.

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1899830043288686637

On March 8, an AFU serviceman from a unit in Kursk Oblast attributed Russia’s advance south of Sudzha to North Korean troops & Russian wire-guided FPV drones. He said those drones account for 95% of Ukrainian losses of equipment and firing positions.

A soldier whose unit is defending in the Zhuravka-Basivka area said Russian troops had attacked on ATVs, with no armored vehicles. When the assault began, Russian artillery suppressed Ukrainian drone & mortar crews in nearby tree lines, he said.

https://x.com/KofmanMichael/status/1899845234978075039

Worth adding these issues have been discussed for quite some time. The main problem was RF interdiction of the few supply routes available, with one main road into Sudzha. As the Kursk pocket got squeezed it became increasingly unsustainable.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1899808892160286961

Updated map showing further Russian advances in Kursk oblast.

https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1899804287309328594

According to DeepState, Ukrainian forces have almost completely withdrawn from the town of Sudzha in Russia's Kursk region, as Russian counter-offensive there continues.

Ukrainian troops are still present on the western outskirts, yet it might only be a matter of time before they are pushed back further.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1899791250229764337

Footage from the past two weeks of Russian fiber optic cable and thermal camera FPV strikes. 451/

 

[thecatch]

We'll see if Russia will even contemplate a cease fire. I think not.

There's your answer

Putin launches drone strikes on Kyiv hours after POTUS challenged him to 'tango' and agree Ukraine ceasefire​

Putin launches strikes on Ukraine hours after Kyiv agreed to ceasefire

The massive missile and drone attacks cast doubt on Vladimir Putin's willingness to accept Donald Trump's demands for peace in the three year war.

www.dailymail.co.uk

-Disgusting response from Russia overnight

If Russia rejects it, I am excited to see what the US does to pressure them to the peace table.

I will be pleasantly surprised if the US does anything.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia pushes back Ukrainian troops after US plan to broker ceasefire

Even as Russian forces kept pressing ahead in the Kursk region, advances on the rest of the frontline seemed to stall. Ukrainian troops managed in recent days to hold back Russian assaults around the logistical hub of Pokrovsk, and even launched daring counter-attacks towards the centre of Toretsk, an industrial city Russian forces reached in August.
On the Pokrovsk front, one drone operator reacted to the news of the suggested ceasefire with one Ukrainian word: pobachymo — “We’ll see”.

Russia's Putin yet to decide on US ceasefire proposal - snap analysis

Some Russian officials in Moscow indicated scepticism about the prospect of a ceasefire, saying that Moscow was unwilling to stop the fighting as its forces this week made rapid gains in reclaiming territory in Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukraine launched a surprise incursion last year.

“Russia is advancing [on the battlefield] … Any agreements must be on our terms, not American ones … Washington should understand this as well,” the senior Russian senator Konstantin Kosachev wrote on Telegram. “Victory will be ours,” he added.

The lawmaker Mikhail Sheremet told Russian media that Russia was not interested in continuing the war but at the same time Moscow “will not tolerate begin strung along”.

Other insiders said that Russia would probably push for certain guarantees before accepting a ceasefire.

On Wednesday, Fyodor Lukyanov, a prominent Russian foreign policy analyst who heads a council that advises the Kremlin, wrote that a ceasefire agreement “contradicts” Moscow’s repeatedly stated position that no truce will take place until the foundations of lasting peace are determined.

“In other words, we fight until a comprehensive settlement framework is developed,” Lukyanov concluded.

 

[higgins]

We'll see if Russia will even contemplate a cease fire. I think not.

There's your answer

Putin launches drone strikes on Kyiv hours after POTUS challenged him to 'tango' and agree Ukraine ceasefire​

Putin launches strikes on Ukraine hours after Kyiv agreed to ceasefire

The massive missile and drone attacks cast doubt on Vladimir Putin's willingness to accept Donald Trump's demands for peace in the three year war.

www.dailymail.co.uk

-Disgusting response from Russia overnight

If Russia rejects it, I am excited to see what the US does to pressure them to the peace table.

I’m wondering whether the answer to your question is the location of these talks (SA) — I’ve heard differing takes on the efficacy of sanctions but one thing is definitely uncertain: the ability of Russia’s economy to stay afloat. If SA / OPEC significantly increases output (lowering prices), how will Russia’s economy respond?

Could SA being the meeting location been a transparent message? <— I don’t pretend to know — just askin’

 

[Chadstroma]

We'll see if Russia will even contemplate a cease fire. I think not.

There's your answer

Putin launches drone strikes on Kyiv hours after POTUS challenged him to 'tango' and agree Ukraine ceasefire​

Putin launches strikes on Ukraine hours after Kyiv agreed to ceasefire

The massive missile and drone attacks cast doubt on Vladimir Putin's willingness to accept Donald Trump's demands for peace in the three year war.

www.dailymail.co.uk

-Disgusting response from Russia overnight

If Russia rejects it, I am excited to see what the US does to pressure them to the peace table.

I’m wondering whether the answer to your question is the location of these talks (SA) — I’ve heard differing takes on the efficacy of sanctions but one thing is definitely uncertain: the ability of Russia’s economy to stay afloat. If SA / OPEC significantly increases output (lowering prices), how will Russia’s economy respond?

Could SA being the meeting location been a transparent message? <— I don’t pretend to know — just askin’

I would do cartwheels. That is the Achilles heel of Russia, You significantly lower their income from oil and the duck tape they have put on their economy rips wide open and it crashes.

 

[The Z Machine]

We'll see if Russia will even contemplate a cease fire. I think not.

There's your answer

Putin launches drone strikes on Kyiv hours after POTUS challenged him to 'tango' and agree Ukraine ceasefire​

Putin launches strikes on Ukraine hours after Kyiv agreed to ceasefire

The massive missile and drone attacks cast doubt on Vladimir Putin's willingness to accept Donald Trump's demands for peace in the three year war.

www.dailymail.co.uk

-Disgusting response from Russia overnight

If Russia rejects it, I am excited to see what the US does to pressure them to the peace table.

I’m wondering whether the answer to your question is the location of these talks (SA) — I’ve heard differing takes on the efficacy of sanctions but one thing is definitely uncertain: the ability of Russia’s economy to stay afloat. If SA / OPEC significantly increases output (lowering prices), how will Russia’s economy respond?

Could SA being the meeting location been a transparent message? <— I don’t pretend to know — just askin’

I would do cartwheels. That is the Achilles heel of Russia, You significantly lower their income from oil and the duck tape they have put on their economy rips wide open and it crashes.

Crude prices up 2% today...

 

[Dezbelief]

Ukraine’s Best European Missile Just Shot Down Its First Russian Jet

The Ukrainian air force has two SAMP/T batteries—and needs more.

www.forbes.com

One of Ukraine’s two SAMP/T surface-to-air missile batteries has shot down a Russian warplane for the first time. That’s obvious good news for Ukraine, which could rely more on the Franco-Italian air defense system—Europe’s answer to the American Patriot.

But the news belies the scarcity of SAMP/Ts—and their Aster missiles—not just in Ukraine, but everywhere.

“There is a confirmed aircraft,” Yuriy Ihnat, a Ukrainian air force spokesman, said at a recent industry event. Ukraine has received separate SAMP/T batteries, each with radars and launchers, from France and Italy. A $500-million SAMP/T battery can hit aircraft and missiles from 90 miles away.

It’s the only Western alternative to the Patriot, around six batteries of which Ukraine has received from the United States, Germany, Romania and The Netherlands.

Kyiv is badly in need of a backup plan for intercepting Russian planes and missiles amid the geopolitical chaos...

Without reliable access to American Patriots, Ukraine could lose—at least temporarily—much of its protection from Russian bombardment.

The two SAMP/Ts and six Patriots the Ukrainian air force currently operates should, in theory, provide slightly more than the bare minimum of long-range air-defense coverage of the biggest Ukrainian cities. Last year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country needed at least seven of the best air defense batteries.

The main problem with both systems is the supply of missiles. It’s unclear how many missiles Ukraine has received

U.S. firm Lockheed Martin produces around 500 Patriot missiles a year—and hopes to ramp up to 650 a year by 2027. A new Patriot missile plant is under construction in Germany, but will need years to tool up. Lockheed’s target for global Patriot production is just 750 missiles a year.

The SAMP/T’s Aster missiles are even scarcer. France and Italy ordered 700 Asters in 2022. France, Italy and the United Kingdom, which fires Asters from warships, paid for an additional 220 missiles last week. Some of these missiles could make their way to Ukraine. More likely, they’ll replace older Asters the three countries donate to Kyiv.

But European missile-maker MBDA needs around two years to produce a single Aster. That’s a few months longer than it takes Lockheed to produce a Patriot—and clearly too slow to save Ukraine.

That's a ridiculous amount of time to make a missile. Maybe an entire plane could take that long and surely a capital ship would take much longer but a consumable missile? They need to ramp that up. I wonder what the constraints are on that production speed.

That's what I thought as well. I read an article a couple of years ago and even NATO standard 155 mil artillery rounds took months to crank out. The lathe time is unreal on percission munitions.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine’s Best European Missile Just Shot Down Its First Russian Jet

The Ukrainian air force has two SAMP/T batteries—and needs more.

www.forbes.com

One of Ukraine’s two SAMP/T surface-to-air missile batteries has shot down a Russian warplane for the first time. That’s obvious good news for Ukraine, which could rely more on the Franco-Italian air defense system—Europe’s answer to the American Patriot.

But the news belies the scarcity of SAMP/Ts—and their Aster missiles—not just in Ukraine, but everywhere.

“There is a confirmed aircraft,” Yuriy Ihnat, a Ukrainian air force spokesman, said at a recent industry event. Ukraine has received separate SAMP/T batteries, each with radars and launchers, from France and Italy. A $500-million SAMP/T battery can hit aircraft and missiles from 90 miles away.

It’s the only Western alternative to the Patriot, around six batteries of which Ukraine has received from the United States, Germany, Romania and The Netherlands.

Kyiv is badly in need of a backup plan for intercepting Russian planes and missiles amid the geopolitical chaos...

Without reliable access to American Patriots, Ukraine could lose—at least temporarily—much of its protection from Russian bombardment.

The two SAMP/Ts and six Patriots the Ukrainian air force currently operates should, in theory, provide slightly more than the bare minimum of long-range air-defense coverage of the biggest Ukrainian cities. Last year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country needed at least seven of the best air defense batteries.

The main problem with both systems is the supply of missiles. It’s unclear how many missiles Ukraine has received

U.S. firm Lockheed Martin produces around 500 Patriot missiles a year—and hopes to ramp up to 650 a year by 2027. A new Patriot missile plant is under construction in Germany, but will need years to tool up. Lockheed’s target for global Patriot production is just 750 missiles a year.

The SAMP/T’s Aster missiles are even scarcer. France and Italy ordered 700 Asters in 2022. France, Italy and the United Kingdom, which fires Asters from warships, paid for an additional 220 missiles last week. Some of these missiles could make their way to Ukraine. More likely, they’ll replace older Asters the three countries donate to Kyiv.

But European missile-maker MBDA needs around two years to produce a single Aster. That’s a few months longer than it takes Lockheed to produce a Patriot—and clearly too slow to save Ukraine.

That's a ridiculous amount of time to make a missile. Maybe an entire plane could take that long and surely a capital ship would take much longer but a consumable missile? They need to ramp that up. I wonder what the constraints are on that production speed.

I think you missed that this is a Franco-Italian product.

 

[Chadstroma]

Also, Patriot missiles were being produced at about 350 a year previous to Ukraine invasion.

 

[Dezbelief]

Ukraine’s Best European Missile Just Shot Down Its First Russian Jet

The Ukrainian air force has two SAMP/T batteries—and needs more.

www.forbes.com

One of Ukraine’s two SAMP/T surface-to-air missile batteries has shot down a Russian warplane for the first time. That’s obvious good news for Ukraine, which could rely more on the Franco-Italian air defense system—Europe’s answer to the American Patriot.

But the news belies the scarcity of SAMP/Ts—and their Aster missiles—not just in Ukraine, but everywhere.

“There is a confirmed aircraft,” Yuriy Ihnat, a Ukrainian air force spokesman, said at a recent industry event. Ukraine has received separate SAMP/T batteries, each with radars and launchers, from France and Italy. A $500-million SAMP/T battery can hit aircraft and missiles from 90 miles away.

It’s the only Western alternative to the Patriot, around six batteries of which Ukraine has received from the United States, Germany, Romania and The Netherlands.

Kyiv is badly in need of a backup plan for intercepting Russian planes and missiles amid the geopolitical chaos...

Without reliable access to American Patriots, Ukraine could lose—at least temporarily—much of its protection from Russian bombardment.

The two SAMP/Ts and six Patriots the Ukrainian air force currently operates should, in theory, provide slightly more than the bare minimum of long-range air-defense coverage of the biggest Ukrainian cities. Last year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country needed at least seven of the best air defense batteries.

The main problem with both systems is the supply of missiles. It’s unclear how many missiles Ukraine has received

U.S. firm Lockheed Martin produces around 500 Patriot missiles a year—and hopes to ramp up to 650 a year by 2027. A new Patriot missile plant is under construction in Germany, but will need years to tool up. Lockheed’s target for global Patriot production is just 750 missiles a year.

The SAMP/T’s Aster missiles are even scarcer. France and Italy ordered 700 Asters in 2022. France, Italy and the United Kingdom, which fires Asters from warships, paid for an additional 220 missiles last week. Some of these missiles could make their way to Ukraine. More likely, they’ll replace older Asters the three countries donate to Kyiv.

But European missile-maker MBDA needs around two years to produce a single Aster. That’s a few months longer than it takes Lockheed to produce a Patriot—and clearly too slow to save Ukraine.

That's a ridiculous amount of time to make a missile. Maybe an entire plane could take that long and surely a capital ship would take much longer but a consumable missile? They need to ramp that up. I wonder what the constraints are on that production speed.

I think you missed that this is a Franco-Italian product.

The article talked about multiple products.

 

[Dezbelief]

European missile-maker MBDA needs around two years to produce a single Aster. That’s a few months longer than it takes Lockheed to produce a Patriot—and clearly too slow to save Ukraine.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine’s Best European Missile Just Shot Down Its First Russian Jet

The Ukrainian air force has two SAMP/T batteries—and needs more.

www.forbes.com

One of Ukraine’s two SAMP/T surface-to-air missile batteries has shot down a Russian warplane for the first time. That’s obvious good news for Ukraine, which could rely more on the Franco-Italian air defense system—Europe’s answer to the American Patriot.

But the news belies the scarcity of SAMP/Ts—and their Aster missiles—not just in Ukraine, but everywhere.

“There is a confirmed aircraft,” Yuriy Ihnat, a Ukrainian air force spokesman, said at a recent industry event. Ukraine has received separate SAMP/T batteries, each with radars and launchers, from France and Italy. A $500-million SAMP/T battery can hit aircraft and missiles from 90 miles away.

It’s the only Western alternative to the Patriot, around six batteries of which Ukraine has received from the United States, Germany, Romania and The Netherlands.

Kyiv is badly in need of a backup plan for intercepting Russian planes and missiles amid the geopolitical chaos...

Without reliable access to American Patriots, Ukraine could lose—at least temporarily—much of its protection from Russian bombardment.

The two SAMP/Ts and six Patriots the Ukrainian air force currently operates should, in theory, provide slightly more than the bare minimum of long-range air-defense coverage of the biggest Ukrainian cities. Last year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country needed at least seven of the best air defense batteries.

The main problem with both systems is the supply of missiles. It’s unclear how many missiles Ukraine has received

U.S. firm Lockheed Martin produces around 500 Patriot missiles a year—and hopes to ramp up to 650 a year by 2027. A new Patriot missile plant is under construction in Germany, but will need years to tool up. Lockheed’s target for global Patriot production is just 750 missiles a year.

The SAMP/T’s Aster missiles are even scarcer. France and Italy ordered 700 Asters in 2022. France, Italy and the United Kingdom, which fires Asters from warships, paid for an additional 220 missiles last week. Some of these missiles could make their way to Ukraine. More likely, they’ll replace older Asters the three countries donate to Kyiv.

But European missile-maker MBDA needs around two years to produce a single Aster. That’s a few months longer than it takes Lockheed to produce a Patriot—and clearly too slow to save Ukraine.

That's a ridiculous amount of time to make a missile. Maybe an entire plane could take that long and surely a capital ship would take much longer but a consumable missile? They need to ramp that up. I wonder what the constraints are on that production speed.

I think you missed that this is a Franco-Italian product.

The article talked about multiple products.

There is a joke in there if you look hard enough.

 

[Chadstroma]

Time to tighten the screws on Russia​

When Ukraine’s negotiating team signed up to President Donald Trump’s demands for a ceasefire, they shifted pressure back onto Vladimir Putin. The White House now views the ball as being in the Kremlin’s court, and has resumed intelligence sharing with and supplies of military aid to Kyiv.

Despite this increased military pressure, as Con Coughlin writes today, Putin may not be willing to negotiate just yet. Russia’s forces are currently making gains on the ground in the Kursk salient, and Moscow will not relish attempting to hash out the details of future borders while part of its territory is held by Ukraine as a bargaining chip.

While the Kremlin may wish to defer talks until it is in a better position to secure its demands, that does not mean that the West has to permit it to do so. Now that Ukraine has acceded to a ceasefire in principle, overwhelming pressure should be brought to bear until Russia does the same.

Some of this pressure could be applied through further military aid, stepping up deliveries and broadening the range of capabilities offered to the armed forces of Ukraine. But perhaps the most sensitive pressure-point available to Western leaders is mercantile: applying the full force of sanctions to nations which have helped Putin escape the economic chokehold applied to his nation, and finishing the job of weaning Europe from its addiction to Russian gas.

EU member states spent more on Russian oil and gas last year than they did on aid for Ukraine. This balance should be addressed in part by further shipments of weapons – and a genuine commitment to the development of domestic industry necessary to secure their supply into the future, including in the necessary rebuilding of Ukrainian capabilities when the war ends – but also by a far greater effort to end the use of Russian fossil fuels. It is an absurd state of affairs for European leaders to talk about the threat posed by Russia even as they directly fund it.

It remains the case, too, that the West holds some $300 billion in frozen Russian assets. Utilising these funds, as has been suggested, is not a free action, and there are good reasons to be concerned about the long-term financial implications. But making clear that delays to peace will result in far longer delays to their release after the war could help to bring Putin to heel.

As US negotiators head to Moscow, the costs of failing to reach a deal should be made clear.

 

[Chadstroma]

Rubio reveals US response plans if Russia rejects ceasefire​

The USA does not rule out the possibility that Russia may refuse to ceasefire in Ukraine. In this case, "it'll tell us a lot about what their goals are," says US Secretary of State Marco Rubio during a briefing in Ireland.

Rubio emphasized that the goal of US President Donald Trump is to establish peace not just for "30 or 60 days, but permanently," and for this, "both sides have to come to the table."

"If they (Russia - ed.) say 'no,' then obviously we'll have to examine everything and sort of figure out where we stand in the world and what their true intentions are. If they say no, it'll tell us a lot about what their goals are and what their mindset is," he noted.

Rubio added that during the last meeting with the Russians, the U.S. asked whether they wanted to end the war or continue it until certain goals were achieved, and they expressed willingness to end the war.

"No one is pretending that these negotiations are going to be easy, or fast. or simple," the US Secretary of State concluded.

US and Ukraine negotiations: ceasefire

The question of introducing a 30-day ceasefire regime was agreed upon during a meeting of Ukrainian and American delegations in Saudi Arabia on March 11.

Currently, no similar agreement has been reached with Russia. The Kremlin is currently studying the statements made during the US-Ukraine meeting. A meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump is also not ruled out.

Additionally, Rubio previously clarified that the US would contact the Russians on this matter on March 12.

 

[Chadstroma]

Boris Johnson Has Made A Startling Claim About Trump's Attitude Towards Putin​

Boris Johnson has claimed Donald Trump “has the guts to stand up to Putin”, despite all the evidence to the contrary.

The former prime minister made the startling claim as hopes of a peace deal to end the war Ukraine rose.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he had agreed to an American proposal of a 30-day truce in the war, which began more than three years ago.

In return, the US has agreed to reinstate military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine.

However, it is unclear whether his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, will also sign up to the plan.

Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has appeared to go out of his way to antagonise Zelenskyy - whose country was invaded by Russia in 2022 - and repeat a series of Kremlin talking points.

He accused the Ukrainian president of being a “dictator” for not holding elections in the middle of a war, and suggested that is country may cease to exist if he does not agree a peace deal.

Meanwhile, he has barely criticised Putin at all, despite the fact that he started the conflict.

But appearing on American TV show News Nation, Johnson said: “I’m a believer in President Donald Trump’s ability to get things done.

“When I was foreign secretary I saw how he dealt with Ukraine. This was the guy who gave the Ukrainians the Javelin shoulder-launch anti-tank missiles, indispensable to the Ukrainians in fighting the Russians and getting them out of the Kyiv area.

“I may be proved wrong. I think Donald Trump is the kind of president who has the guts - the guts - to stand up to Putin and say ’look, I’ve put a lot of pressure on the Ukrainians, the whole world has seen the pressure they’ve been under in the last 10 days or so. They’ve moved a long way for peace. Now Putin, it’s your turn.”

Keir Starmer congratulated Trump and Zelenskyy for the “remarkable breakthrough”.

He said: “This is an important moment for peace in Ukraine and we now all need to redouble our efforts to get to a lasting and secure peace as soon as possible.”

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine replaces key military commander amid ongoing battles​

Krasylnykov had served as commander of Operational Command North since March 2023.

He confirmed his dismissal to Suspilne and added that he was not given a reason. He is now serving in a reserve battalion.

When asked whether his dismissal might be related to events in Kursk Oblast, Krasylnykov suggested it was possible but did not elaborate.

"In my opinion, there are no significant reasons for this (dismissal, — ed.)," he commented.

"Regarding the events in Kursk... Roughly speaking, I left Kursk back in November (2024, — ed.)," the major general said.

His successor as commander of Operational Command North has already been appointed — Brigadier General Oleksii Shandar, who previously served as deputy commander of Ukraine’s Air Assault Forces.

On March 11, MP Maryana Bezuhla claimed that Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, was dismissing General Krasylnykov, allegedly despite opposition from Ground Forces Commander Mykhailo Drapaty and the personnel of Operational Command North.

So far, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was yet to comment on the situation.

 

[Chadstroma]

Explainer-What's happening in Russia's Kursk region and why does it matter?​

(Reuters) - Ukrainian forces are under intense pressure in Russia's Kursk region, where they grabbed a chunk of land last August and have held on to it through more than seven months of fierce fighting.

What's happening and why is it important?

WHERE IS KURSK AND WHAT HAPPENED THERE?

Kursk is a part of western Russia that borders the Sumy region of Ukraine. On August 6 last year, Ukraine sprang one of the biggest surprises of the war when its troops smashed across the frontier and captured a piece of territory that it said measured 1,376 sq km (530 sq miles) at its peak and included about 100 towns and villages. Since then, Russian forces and troops from Moscow's ally North Korea have clawed back most of that land. Pro-Moscow war bloggers say Ukrainian troops are at risk of being encircled, something Kyiv's top commander denies.

WHAT DID THE KURSK OFFENSIVE MEAN FOR UKRAINE?

The territory that Ukraine captured was a small fraction of the area that Russia has captured in Ukraine since 2014, which amounts to about a fifth of the country. But the operation provided Ukraine with its biggest gains since late 2022 and delivered a massive morale boost: after 2-1/2 years of fending off Russia's invasion, it had stunned its enemy by launching an invasion of its own. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy spoke of "restoring justice", bringing the war home to ordinary Russians and making a mockery of Putin's attempts to set "red lines" to deter adversaries. Ukraine also hoped the operation would slow Russia's advances in eastern Ukraine by forcing it to divert troops to the defence of Kursk - although this did not happen, and Russia's gains in the east only accelerated. Finally, Zelenskiy saw Kursk as a bargaining chip that he said as recently as last month could potentially be traded for Ukrainian territory under Russian control.

HOW DID RUSSIA REACT, AND HOW DID IT TURN THE TIDE?

The first invasion of Russian soil since World War Two was an embarrassment for Putin, who has placed himself in a historic tradition of militarily successful Russian rulers. He played down the military impact of the incursion, which Russia styled initially as a "terrorist" operation, and refused to be drawn into promising a timeframe for the Ukrainians' expulsion. From late October, North Korean troops began arriving in Kursk region to fight alongside Russia under a mutual defence pact agreed months earlier between Putin and his ally Kim Jong Un. Putin has never acknowledged their role on the battlefield but Ukraine and its allies say the North Koreans have played an active part in fighting and sustained heavy casualties. A sharp worsening of Ukraine's position followed a decision this month by U.S. President Donald Trump to pause military aid and intelligence-sharing with Kyiv, although Russia was already reporting near-daily advances by late February.

IF UKRAINE LOSES ITS FOOTHOLD IN KURSK, WHAT THEN?

Ukraine risks losing all its initial gains from the Kursk operation in terms of territory, morale and bargaining power. It could also suffer heavy casualties if its soldiers are encircled or are forced to withdraw under heavy fire. A defeat in Kursk would intensify pressure on Zelenskiy after a series of heavy blows in the past few weeks, including his disastrous White House meeting with Trump on February 28, and weaken his hand in possible peace negotiations.

 

[Chadstroma]

A great victory for Ukraine? The truth is more complicated​

It took Marco Rubio barely 30 seconds to switch the glare of American pressure away from Ukraine and towards Russia.

As he announced Ukraine’s willingness to observe an immediate 30-day ceasefire, the US secretary of state emphasised how the “ball is now in Russia’s court”.

He was speaking only 11 days after Donald Trump turfed Volodymyr Zelensky out of the White House before cutting off arms supplies and intelligence, deliberately maximising Ukraine’s vulnerability to Russian attacks.

Yet by agreeing to a ceasefire – provided that Russia follows suit – and consenting to negotiations on an “enduring peace”, Ukraine did enough on Tuesday for America to announce the “immediate” restoration of “intelligence-sharing” and “security assistance”.

Superficially, the outcome of the Jeddah talks might seem to be an extraordinary reversal of America’s position. But under the surface, the truth is more complicated.

For all the sound and fury, Washington appears to be following the plan published last year by Gen Keith Kellogg, now Mr Trump’s Ukraine envoy.

This can be crudely summarised as follows: hammer the Ukrainians until they agree to a ceasefire and peace talks, then turn the screw on the Russians until they reciprocate.

But suppose the Russians do not reciprocate? Now there is one vital question: how will America respond if Vladimir Putin simply rejects the Jeddah offer?

He will be deeply reluctant to accept a ceasefire at the very moment when his forces are finally advancing against Ukraine’s salient in the Russian region of Kursk.

In Putin’s preferred sequence, a ceasefire would be the last step, when everything else has been settled, allowing the Russians to maintain every ounce of military pressure to wring concessions from Ukraine throughout any negotiations.

Yet Mr Rubio wants them to do the exact opposite and pause fighting at a time when Ukraine still holds perhaps 100 sq km of Russian territory as a bargaining chip to be traded for some of its own land.

If Russia rejects this offer, then America has one obvious option, described in the Kellogg plan – namely to turn the heat on the Kremlin by providing yet more military support for Ukraine.

That would probably entail going back to Congress and asking both Houses to vote for another package of exactly the kind that Mr Trump and JD Vance, the vice-president, have publicly ridiculed.

Mr Trump thrives on being unpredictable but such a step may be too spectacular a political somersault even for him.

Perhaps more likely is that Russia will pretend to accept the Jeddah offer and do just enough to prevent America from renewing its backing for Ukraine while in fact breaking the ceasefire and finding a way of blaming Mr Zelensky.

Putin’s key advantage is that Mr Trump and his acolytes are obviously influenced by Russian messages and Russian narratives.

But there is no doubting that some adroit Ukrainian diplomacy has suddenly placed the spotlight on Putin and landed him with a wrenching decision.

 

[fatness]

The Kremlin head’s main goal, for now, is to continue to enforce Trump’s suspicions that Zelensky is the impediment to his peace. Putin cannot refuse a ceasefire, without losing the fictitious moral high ground. But it is what comes next – or during any pause in hostilities – that will define the outcome of the war.

If Moscow agrees, everything has to suddenly stop for a month. It is near impossible there will not be errors, or clashes. In the past Russia has exceled at misinformation, maskirovka – deceit as a tactic on the battlefield – as well as false flag operations, when incidents are staged to provide the impetus for retaliation. There will be moments, in any month’s pause, where small arms clashes, or drone strikes, prove impossible to attribute to either side as the aggressor: where AI-manipulation, or faked accounts, or entirely fictitious incidents, fill the information space. Algorithms will seek to amplify falsehoods. World leaders will struggle to have a cogent grasp of minor details of who-shot-who on the front line. Areas where seismic events have occurred will prove out of reach to investigators owing to the violence that erupts again.

The evidence of the past decade should lead to pessimism, and deceit has flown almost entirely one way. Russia invaded Crimea in 2014 but pretended it had not. Russia agreed to a ceasefire in 2015, and in its first days took the Ukrainian town of Debaltseve. Russia said it would not launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but did.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/11/europe/analysis-ukraine-russia-ceasefire-proposal-intl-latam/index.html

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Document prepared for Kremlin outlines hard-line negotiating stance

Russia should work to weaken the U.S. negotiating position on Ukraine by stoking tensions between the Trump administration and other countries while pushing ahead with Moscow’s efforts to dismantle the Ukrainian state, according to a document prepared for the Kremlin.
The document, written in February by an influential Moscow-based think tank close to Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), lays out Russia’s maximalist demands for any end to the conflict in Ukraine. It dismisses President Donald Trump’s preliminary plans for a peace deal within 100 days as “impossible to realize” and says that “a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine crisis cannot happen before 2026.”
The document also rejects any plan to dispatch peacekeepers to Ukraine, as some in Europe have proposed, and insists on recognition of Russia’s sovereignty over the Ukrainian territories it has seized. It also calls for a further carve-up through the creation of a buffer zone in Ukraine’s northeast on the border with Russian regions such as Bryansk and Belgorod, as well as a demilitarized zone in southern Ukraine near Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. The latter would affect the Odessa region.
In addition, the document discusses the need for “the complete dismantling” of the current Ukrainian government.

The document was prepared by a think tank working closely with the FSB’s Fifth Service, the division that oversees operations in Ukraine, in the week ahead of talks between Russia and the United States in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, which took place on Feb. 18. A Russian academic close to senior Russian diplomats said the main thrust of the recommendations reflects the broad consensus in Moscow, but added that it is never clear to what degree the Kremlin leadership reacts to documents being prepared for it.
While hawkish members of the Russian elite were pressing the Kremlin to continue the war and “use the current situation to advance further,” other groups were pressing for a speedier resolution of the conflict and “for a ceasefire at least,” he said.
The FSB-linked document lays out ways in which Russia could boost its negotiating position by exacerbating tensions between the United States and both China and the European Union, and by proposing U.S. access to Russian minerals including in the territories it occupies in Ukraine, such as the eastern region of Donbas, where it says there are reserves of rare-earth metals.

The document dismisses what it says are initial proposals made by Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, for a peace agreement in which one suggested element would be Ukraine’s ceding of territories taken by Russia and Kyiv’s agreement not to attempt to regain them in the future through military or diplomatic means.
The FSB-linked document says, however, that even this type of settlement does not go far enough and that without official recognition of Russian sovereignty over the seized region, it is “fairly likely” the armed conflict will resume in the medium term, “for example after the next change of administration in the U.S.”
The document also dismisses any potential political concessions by Ukraine — such as Kyiv’s rejection of NATO membership and the holding of elections in which pro-Russian parties would be allowed to participate — as not being far-reaching enough. “In reality, the current Kyiv regime cannot be changed from inside the country. Its complete dismantling is needed,” it says.

Trump hints at financial repercussions if Russia rejects Ukraine ceasefire

Donald Trump has suggested he could target Russia financially as Ukraine’s president urged him to take strong steps if Moscow failed to support a 30-day ceasefire agreed at a meeting between Ukrainian and US delegations in Saudi Arabia.

US arms flow to Ukraine again as the Kremlin mulls a ceasefire proposal

In other developments, officials acknowledged Wednesday that Kyiv no longer has any of the longer-range Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, missiles.

According to a U.S. official and a Ukrainian lawmaker on the country’s defense committee, Ukraine has run out of the ATACMs. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to provide military weapons details.

The U.S. official said the U.S. provided fewer than 40 of those missiles overall and that Ukraine ran out of them in late January. Senior U.S. defense leaders, including the previous Pentagon chief, Lloyd Austin, had made it clear that only a limited number of the ATACMs would be delivered and that the U.S. and NATO allies considered other weapons to be more valuable in the fight.

Finland will not send troops as part of a peacekeeping force per Finnish PM:

Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said earlier on Wednesday that Finland was actively taking part in the discussions around the coalition of the willing but ruled out participation in any peace-keeping mission in Ukraine, citing need to secure Finland's own defence next to Russia.

”We will not send soldiers to Ukraine," Orpo told members of parliament.

French parliament adopts resolution calling for seizure of frozen Russian assets

France’s parliament adopted a resolution calling for the seizure of frozen Russian assets and stressing the need for deepening French political and military support for Ukraine.

The resolution is a largely symbolic measure, though its supporters hope it will increase pressure on a government that has warned about the lack of a legal basis for seizing frozen Russian central bank assets.

The text was adopted with 288 votes in favour and 55 against.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine struggles to hold on in Kursk Oblast as Russia strikes back before peace talks

But the main problem for Ukrainian forces is a section of about 10 kilometers of the main highway in Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast between the village of Yunakivka and the Sudzha border crossing.
“Formally, all the logistics are tied to the Sumy-Sudzha asphalt highway, which is very easy to control, because the distances (to the enemy) there are not very long, about 5-7, maximum 15 kilometers, which is not a problem for modern drones,” a retired military officer and defense expert Viktor Kevliuk told the Kyiv Independent.
“Logistics routes are also not so numerous because the area is either swampy or bridges are destroyed,” he added.

While regular FPV drones are counteracted by electronic warfare equipment used by both Ukrainian and Russian forces, it is powerless against fiber-optic-controlled drones that use an exceptionally long wire unraveled during the flight. Some can fly up to 20 kilometers.
“Not all, but most of the fiber-optic crews in the Russian army are now in the Kursk Oblast. There is a huge concentration of drones there,” Mykula said.
According to Mykula, Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast never found a way to counteract this type of drone.

One Ukrainian soldier who asked for anonymity to discuss sensitive matters told the Kyiv Independent that his unit had recently withdrawn from Kursk Oblast, losing almost all of their vehicles.
“It was a horror what was happening on that road,” he said.
“We don't know what will happen next.”

Ukrainian forces retreating in Russia's Kursk Oblast but not withdrawing altogether, sources say

Ukrainian troops are making a significant retreat in Russia's Kursk Oblast, particularly near the town of Sudzha, but are not entirely withdrawing from the Kursk front. Units that spoke to Ukrainska Pravda have confirmed they are being repositioned to positions on the Russian side of the border.

Ukrainska Pravda has learned that some Ukrainian units, particularly airborne troops, remain in Kursk Oblast and are being pulled back closer to the Russo-Ukrainian border – but not beyond it.

Russia Says It Is Close to Ousting Ukraine From Its Kursk Region

Russia said its forces were in the final stages of ousting Ukraine’s army from the Kursk region, where Kyiv had taken Russian territory that it had hoped to use as a bargaining chip in peace negotiations.

The Russian military said Thursday it had retaken Sudzha, the biggest town held by Ukraine in the Kursk region, after recapturing a string of villages in recent days. Ukraine didn’t immediately respond to comment early Thursday. It had been using Sudzha as a logistical hub to resupply troops in the area.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 12, 2025

Russian forces recently seized Sudzha amid continued Russian assaults in Kursk Oblast on March 12. Geolocated footage published on March 12 indicates that Russian forces recently seized Sudzha and advanced to southern Zaoleshenka (immediately northwest of Sudzha).

Russia makes gains against Ukraine in Kursk as Trump envoy arrives in Moscow

Ukraine’s army chief, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, countered on Wednesday that combat operations continue in the Kursk region, even as the Russian offensive is pushing steadily forward. He said Russia has “almost completely destroyed” the town of Sudzha with its aerial bombardment.

Trump’s special envoy expected in Moscow shortly as Putin yet to respond to ceasefire offer

Ukraine’s military commander, Oleksandr Syrsky, said his troops were manoeuvring to more favourable positions to save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers.

 

[Chadstroma]

How Europe’s Military Stacks Up Against Russia Without U.S. Support​

Last month roughly 10,000 NATO troops carried out drills just miles from Ukraine’s border to test a new quick-reaction force created after Russia’s large-scale invasion of its neighbor. The show of military muscle was unusual for who was absent: the U.S.

Now people in and around the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are wondering whether Europeans could handle more than just an exercise on their own. America’s commitment to NATO security guarantees is suddenly in doubt, even after the U.S. reinstated military support for Ukraine this week after Kyiv accepted a cease-fire and Moscow signaled it is in no hurry to end hostilities. American diplomatic outreach to Russia and the Trump administration’s frostiness toward Europe raise worries.

That is leading some to ask a once-unthinkable question: If trans-Atlantic ties deteriorate further, could Europe be forced to defend itself against Russia without U.S. support? American military brass and officials who have served across the Atlantic say Europe would pack a strong punch in such a scenario.

Europe lacks important air-defense and intelligence capabilities, but its militaries together constitute a massive air force, giant navy and formidable army. Those land forces, which shriveled after the Cold War, are now gradually rebuilding and adding advanced equipment.

A fight would be deadly and hugely destructive—as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shown—and raise the risk of nuclear war. But in conventional combat, say strategists, Russia would struggle against Europe.

NATO members have said that Russia in a few years could be strong enough to launch a more traditional attack on Europe, especially if a Ukraine peace agreement allows Moscow to rebuild its armed forces. Whether a reconstituted Russian military could take European ground is the question.

“What we’ve seen of Mr. Putin’s army is, they are certainly not 10 feet tall. They have struggled mightily in fighting Ukraine,” said retired U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, a former NATO supreme allied commander.

He said that 11 years after Moscow’s initial attack on Ukraine, when it seized the Crimean Peninsula, and three years after its full-scale invasion, “their army has been decimated” by a lesser Ukrainian force.

Breedlove and others are positive on Europe’s prospects in a fight with Russia in part because of the potential circumstances: a Russian attack on Europe. Europe has no thoughts of attacking Russia. Defending territory is easier than taking it, as ragtag Ukrainian forces showed three years ago when they stopped Russia’s attempt to grab Kyiv.

“I think that the European armies are well-suited to any problem that would happen with Russia,” said Breedlove.

One caveat raised in recent days, following President Trump’s blockage of aid to Ukraine, is the U.S. actively impeding European NATO action. “That’s no longer completely unimaginable,” said Giuseppe Spatafora, a former NATO planner and now a research analyst at the European Union’s Institute for Security Studies.

Europe’s military shortcomings are well documented. Its forces rely on the U.S. for vital intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, transport aircraft and command-and-control. Perhaps most critical in a fight with Russia is Europe’s lack of air defenses. Russia has demolished Ukrainian towns and cities with missiles and rockets.

Still, Europe’s militaries together have significant defensive capabilities, which they are building through incessant training. The scale of exercises has increased and their focus has shifted to collective defense. U.S. absence from the reaction-force drill in February was largely due to troop rotations and European initiative to lead the effort, say NATO officials.

NATO’s 32 members last spring staged their largest exercise since the Cold War, including roughly 90,000 troops, more than 80 aircraft and 1,100 combat vehicles—a big chunk of which came from the U.S. This year, NATO plans nearly 100 separate exercises, said NATO’s supreme allied commander Europe, U.S. Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, in January. Most are in or near Europe.

“This is an intensive schedule, it’s ambitious, but it’s absolutely necessary so that we can make sure our forces are trained and ready to defend our citizens,” Cavoli said.


The exercises let combat troops get used to fighting alongside allies and help commanders learn how to lead mixed-nationality forces. They also force noncommissioned officers, who lead troops in battle, to practice making decisions under stress and in fast-changing circumstances.

NATO’s training of Ukrainian soldiers in its leadership approach, known as mission command, helped its forces prevail against Russia’s assault on Kyiv, said Ukrainian and NATO officers. Russian combat commanders struggle to improvise and adapt, the past three years have shown.

NATO’s European militaries also have large amounts of equipment, though much needs to be readied for action. Together they have roughly 5,000 tanks and more than 2,800 self-propelled artillery systems. Russia has up to 3,000 tanks left, according to open-source analysts, though the actual numbers are difficult to judge after it lost thousands of tanks in Ukraine. It has about half as many self-propelled artillery systems as Europe, according to the International Institute of Strategic Studies, a think tank in London.

Drones have cut the usefulness of such systems, and Russia now is a world leader in uncrewed systems. NATO countries are racing to learn from Ukraine and develop their own drones and antidrone systems.

For more traditional air combat, NATO’s European members have roughly 2,000 jet fighters and other warplanes, according to the IISS. Europeans are expanding and modernizing those fleets. By 2030, Europe will have more than 500 cutting-edge U.S.-made F-35 fighter planes.

Russia’s air force has roughly 1,000 fighter, bomber and ground-attack aircraft, and they haven’t performed well in combat, according to the IISS, which estimates Russia has lost roughly one of every five planes it sent into combat.


Russian President Vladimir Putin has reoriented his economy to a wartime footing, and it is now working flat out to supply its troops. If fighting were to cease, Russia could quickly rebuild its forces, Western officials fear.

European countries have depleted their arsenals by donating equipment to Ukraine and are struggling to replace all that. “Our industry is still too small, it is too fragmented, and to be honest, it is too slow,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte told the European Parliament earlier this year.

European leaders are scrambling to fund new military production, including at a summit meeting in Brussels last week. The effort has gotten fresh urgency from Trump’s pressure.

How Europeans might fight without U.S. participation is a new question for NATO countries. While European investments will bolster the continent’s defenses, the equipment and units are part of NATO battle plans and command structures premised on U.S. involvement—and even leadership.

Aside from NATO, Europe has no continentwide military command. The U.S. spent decades ensuring that by co-opting or squelching any effort by allied European governments to create rival military groupings. Europeans have repeatedly talked about establishing a multinational fighting force but made little headway.


Now Europeans are pondering what collective defense might look like without the U.S. A starting point could be NATO’s own battle plans, which are adaptable to varying force levels, alliance officials say.

The elaborate, flexible and detailed plans are classified. Still, NATO’s fundamental approach today, as during the Cold War, is to employ forces available in Europe to hold off Russian attackers until reinforcements arrive from the U.S.

Europe could still use NATO blueprints as a basis for its own defensive plans, even if they have gaps. Developing capabilities that could alleviate shortfalls if Washington declined to join a conflict is an undertaking that would balloon Europe’s bill for military modernization.

“You have to use the best tools available,” said Spatafora at the EU institute. “NATO’s plans are a good model because components of national armies are being put together for that.”

 

[The Z Machine]

It's pretty insane to me that drones operated by fiber optic lines are the pinnacle of new tech that is changing the tide of battle.

 

[Stoneworker]

It's pretty insane to me that drones operated by fiber optic lines are the pinnacle of new tech that is changing the tide of battle.

Please explain how Ukraine is "changing the tide of battle" when it is on the verge of losing Kursk

 

[fatness]

Putin does not fully embrace U.S. ceasefire proposal for Ukraine

"The comments signal there will be tough negotiations ahead that could frustrate President Donald Trump’s hope for a swift peace deal."

"Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday did not fully embrace a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire in the Ukraine war, stating that there were “nuances” that required “painstaking research,” especially since Russian forces were advancing in the war. The Russian leader was due to meet President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff later Thursday evening to discuss the ceasefire proposal, which earlier one of his top aides had dismissed as unworkable. Putin’s comments allow Russia to engage in protracted negotiations without immediately rejecting a truce.

Putin, who thanked Trump for his efforts to resolve the conflict, said that Russia would agree to a ceasefire, but only if it led to long term peace, hinting that Russia wanted to place conditions on a ceasefire, such as barring Ukraine from receiving arms from the United States or mobilizing new forces. He also questioned how a ceasefire would be verified, indicating that complex negotiations would be required before he could endorse it."

 

[fatness]

Document prepared for Kremlin outlines hard-line negotiating stance

"Russia should work to weaken the U.S. negotiating position on Ukraine by stoking tensions between the Trump administration and other countries while pushing ahead with Moscow’s efforts to dismantle the Ukrainian state, according to a document prepared for the Kremlin.

The document, written in February by an influential Moscow-based think tank close to Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), lays out Russia’s maximalist demands for any end to the conflict in Ukraine. It dismisses President Donald Trump’s preliminary plans for a peace deal within 100 days as “impossible to realize” and says that “a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine crisis cannot happen before 2026.”"

 

[Stoneworker]

Document prepared for Kremlin outlines hard-line negotiating stance

"Russia should work to weaken the U.S. negotiating position on Ukraine by stoking tensions between the Trump administration and other countries while pushing ahead with Moscow’s efforts to dismantle the Ukrainian state, according to a document prepared for the Kremlin.

The document, written in February by an influential Moscow-based think tank close to Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), lays out Russia’s maximalist demands for any end to the conflict in Ukraine. It dismisses President Donald Trump’s preliminary plans for a peace deal within 100 days as “impossible to realize” and says that “a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine crisis cannot happen before 2026.”"

With all due respect, this is not "news." This is editorial garbage from a Pro-Putin "think tank."

Should we now start posting opinion pieces from the Heritage Foundation?

 

[the moops]

Document prepared for Kremlin outlines hard-line negotiating stance

"Russia should work to weaken the U.S. negotiating position on Ukraine by stoking tensions between the Trump administration and other countries while pushing ahead with Moscow’s efforts to dismantle the Ukrainian state, according to a document prepared for the Kremlin.

The document, written in February by an influential Moscow-based think tank close to Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), lays out Russia’s maximalist demands for any end to the conflict in Ukraine. It dismisses President Donald Trump’s preliminary plans for a peace deal within 100 days as “impossible to realize” and says that “a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine crisis cannot happen before 2026.”"

With all due respect, this is not "news." This is editorial garbage from a Pro-Putin "think tank."

Should we now start posting opinion pieces from the Heritage Foundation?

If the Washington Post writes an article about that opinion piece, then sure.

 

[Stoneworker]

Document prepared for Kremlin outlines hard-line negotiating stance

"Russia should work to weaken the U.S. negotiating position on Ukraine by stoking tensions between the Trump administration and other countries while pushing ahead with Moscow’s efforts to dismantle the Ukrainian state, according to a document prepared for the Kremlin.

The document, written in February by an influential Moscow-based think tank close to Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), lays out Russia’s maximalist demands for any end to the conflict in Ukraine. It dismisses President Donald Trump’s preliminary plans for a peace deal within 100 days as “impossible to realize” and says that “a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine crisis cannot happen before 2026.”"

With all due respect, this is not "news." This is editorial garbage from a Pro-Putin "think tank."

Should we now start posting opinion pieces from the Heritage Foundation?

If the Washington Post writes an article about that opinion piece, then sure.

Baloney

If someone posted a Fox News "article about an opinion piece," and then bolded something inflammatory, I'm quite sure you would offer a different take

 

[The Z Machine]

It's pretty insane to me that drones operated by fiber optic lines are the pinnacle of new tech that is changing the tide of battle.

Please explain how Ukraine is "changing the tide of battle" when it is on the verge of losing Kursk

I was referring to Russia using them...

 

[Chadstroma]

It's pretty insane to me that drones operated by fiber optic lines are the pinnacle of new tech that is changing the tide of battle.

Can't jam that direct line.... at least yet.... who knows what kind of counter tech comes out to break it.

 

[fatness]

Document prepared for Kremlin outlines hard-line negotiating stance

"Russia should work to weaken the U.S. negotiating position on Ukraine by stoking tensions between the Trump administration and other countries while pushing ahead with Moscow’s efforts to dismantle the Ukrainian state, according to a document prepared for the Kremlin.

The document, written in February by an influential Moscow-based think tank close to Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), lays out Russia’s maximalist demands for any end to the conflict in Ukraine. It dismisses President Donald Trump’s preliminary plans for a peace deal within 100 days as “impossible to realize” and says that “a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine crisis cannot happen before 2026.”"

With all due respect, this is not "news." This is editorial garbage from a Pro-Putin "think tank."

Should we now start posting opinion pieces from the Heritage Foundation?

With all due respect, it's a Washington Post article about an summary prepared for Putin by a think tank. It is not the summary, presented as fact. Knowing what information Putin has requested and has at his disposal is important since his country is a combatant.

It's really a mistake on your part to turn this ongoing topic into a battle between "conservative" and "liberal", or between "Republican" and "Democrat". Maybe start another topic for that?

 

[fatness]

Russian gas giant to sell off luxury properties after European demand collapses

In a standoff with European countries, who imposed sanctions on Moscow, Putin was accused of energy “blackmail” after Gazprom reduced gas supplies to Germany and some Baltic countries which were highly dependent on Russia. It prompted a major effort by European Union member states to find alternative supplies. Since then, Russian gas exports to Europe have plunged by 75pc and the last operational pipeline to the Continent – which ran via Ukraine – was shut down in December.

 

[fatness]

In No Hurry for Cease-Fire, Putin Demands Numerous Ukrainian Concessions

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Thursday did not rule out a U.S. and Ukrainian proposal for a monthlong cease-fire, but he set down numerous conditions that would most likely delay any truce — or could make one impossible to achieve.

 

[fatness]

Russia needs war, Zelensky says in response to Putin's preconditions for ceasefire

Russian President Vladimir Putin's remarks about a 30-day ceasefire indicate that he is preparing a rejection of the U.S. proposal, President Volodymyr Zelensky said during his evening address on March 13.
"Putin is afraid to say directly to (U.S.) President (Donald) Trump that he wants to continue this war, that he wants to kill Ukrainians. That's why they in Moscow demand such preconditions for a ceasefire that will make it impossible or will (postpone it) as long as possible," Zelensky said.

 

[Stoneworker]

With all due respect, it's a Washington Post article about an summary prepared for Putin by a think tank. It is not the summary, presented as fact. Knowing what information Putin has requested and has at his disposal is important since his country is a combatant.

It's really a mistake on your part to turn this ongoing topic into a battle between "conservative" and "liberal", or between "Republican" and "Democrat". Maybe start another topic for that?

A summary article about a Putin think tank's propaganda is not "news." It is merely a derivative of the propaganda itself and therefore opinionated editorial garbage.

And you aren't nearly as clever as you think you are selectively bolding and italicizing blatantly derogatory opinions about Donald Trump's handling of the matter, and then attempting to pass those opinions over as somehow factual about the war itself.

As far as accusing me of being the political bad guy, I suggest you look in the mirror and re-read your own post.

Talking about what the US government is (or isn't) doing isn't political. Talking about "Trump that idiot" or "Saving our country" would be and are political (examples pulled out of my hat).

 

[Zeppelin]

Please, let's get away from anything remotely political including the back and forth stuff. That's what shuts threads down. This is an important thread and we need to keep it.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

US Quietly Tightens Russia Sanctions as It Seeks Ceasefire Deal

The US is tightening sanctions on Russia by restricting payments for energy even as it pursues peace negotiations with President Vladimir Putin’s government over the war in Ukraine.
The Trump administration quietly let expire a license covering payments for energy to a handful of Russian banks that were still allowed to receive payments in US dollars through what was known as “General License 8,” which had been in place since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The administration did not publicly announce or acknowledge the change, which was put in place by the outgoing Biden administration as part of a package of sanctions implemented in January. Among the provisions of that package, the Biden administration cut short the typical six-month time frame for the license, setting it up to expire at midnight March 12.
Letting the license expire “will significantly gum up the works of Russia’s oil and gas revenues,” said Edward Fishman, a former State Department official who worked on Russia sanctions in 2014. “If you are a foreign oil refinery or an oil trader or someone buying Russian gas and your bank wants to pay Russia for their oil and gas in dollars or by extension, really any other Western currency, you’re going find that very difficult to do.”

Putin casts doubt on U.S. ceasefire proposal, sets tough conditions

A Ukrainian drone commander who has been fighting in Kursk since August said his brigade was “gradually withdrawing.” He said troops are holding onto parts of Sudzha to give other units time to withdraw.
“We will try to hold them at the Ukrainian border,” said Andriy, who asked that his last name not be used because he was not authorized to speak with the media. “I think the Russians will try to advance further and enter Sumy region. This is what we are fighting against right now.”

Ukraine says Russia is stepping up attacks in Sumy region

There are indications that Russian forces have stepped up efforts to invade Ukraine’s northern Sumy region, building up on their success in Kursk region across the border.

The head of the Sumy regional administration, Volodymyr Artyukh, says that "enemy subversive groups have been trying to enter practically across the whole stretch of the border".

"Their actions have intensified. The Russian army has deployed serious reserves there. That’s why there’s going to be a lot of shelling in the border areas," Artyukh told Ukrainian Suspilne TV, external.

He also says the Russian army has been using more glide bombs and drones to attack the region.

To avoid civilian casualties, the regional defence council has launched the mandatory evacuation, external of eight villages in border areas, or more than 500 people in total.

US has ‘cautious optimism’ on Ukraine ceasefire after Trump envoy’s Moscow visit

The U.S. has “some cautious optimism” that a ceasefire deal in the Ukraine war is coming soon, Donald Trump’s national security adviser Mike Waltz said late Thursday.

US long-range bombs headed to Ukraine as ATACMS supply dwindles

The U.S. is poised to resume shipments to Ukraine of long-range bombs known as Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB), after they were upgraded to better counter Russian jamming, two people familiar with the weapon told Reuters.

In recent weeks, 19 GLSDBs were test-fired to assess the effectiveness of the upgrades. Part of the modifications involved reinforcing connections within the weapon to enhance its resilience, the people said.
The reintroduction of the GLSDB onto the battlefield could occur in the coming days, as a stockpile is already present in Europe. The last time Ukrainians used the weapons was months ago, one of the people said.
Russian jamming had kept many of Ukraine's relatively new long-range GLSDBs from hitting their intended targets, three people familiar with the challenges told Reuters last May.

Exclusive: China state firms curb Russian oil imports on sanctions risks, sources say

Chinese state oil companies are shying away from Russian oil this month, with two importers halting purchases while two others scaled back volumes as they assess compliance following recent U.S. sanctions on Moscow, multiple trade sources said.

While Russian shipments to the two Asian countries have rebounded after more non-sanctioned tankers joined the trade, China's state-run Sinopec and Zhenhua Oil halted purchases of March-loading Russian oil due to concerns over dealing with the sanctioned firms, sources with knowledge of the matter said.
The scaled-back buying by Chinese state players has weighed on Russian oil prices, eating into Moscow's revenue and putting additional pressure on Russia ahead of a possible ceasefire deal with Ukraine.

A trading executive close to a Russian supplier regularly dealing with Chinese state buyers said the companies were shunning oil produced by the newly sanctioned companies.
"They are taking a break for now while contemplating if there are ways to work around," the executive added.

Russian Oil Delivery Takes Seven Times Longer After Sanctions

The delivery of a two-million-barrel cargo of Russian oil to China took seven times longer than it would have done prior to a round of US sanctions imposed on Moscow back in January.
The drawn out delivery of Sokol crude from Russia’s Sakhalin 1 project into Chinese storage tanks shows how US sanctions continue to disrupt and impede — but importantly not halt — the flow of Russian oil.
The Daban, a so-called Very Large Crude Carrier, is discharging its cargo at Huangdao port in China more than seven weeks after the oil was first loaded onto shuttle tankers, vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. It would normally take about a week.