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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (4 Viewers)

Thanks I thought that thread had gotten moved to the free for all. I see now we have two threads cause people can't get along. Very ironic we are talking about  people trying to find peace in a time of war. But even at the most basic level on a football board we can't even agree to one thread where we can play nice. 
Never mind 

 
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@sentdefender: Unconfirmed reports of a Large Ukrainian Counteroffensive currently occurring Northwest of the Capital City of Kyiv, Heavy Fighting can be heard in cities of Irpin’, Hostomel, and Bucha involving Armor and Artillery, I expect there to be a Statement from the MOD in the morning.

 
I've been trying to learn more about and understand Mr Putin better. This has been a good resource:

PBS Frontline

Over the last week they've put up some fantastic content, 5-6 long format interviews focusing on Putin.

Each of the interviews has an in depth perspective but I was especially impressed with Kori Schake's insight.

 
Russian and Ukrainian history is fascinating. I wish I knew it as well as American or Western European history, but I’ve been trying to understand it better. I think it really helps give context to what is currently going on.

A week ago Russia launched a missile strike on a Ukrainian Holocaust Memorial in Kyiv.

Babyn Yar (aka Babi Yar) is the site of a ravine where the Einsatzgruppe - Nazi death squads - murdered 33,771 Ukrainian Jews. The massacre took place September 29-30, 1941.

________________

TimeGhost History, which runs a terrific WW2 YouTube channel, republished a video this week on Babyn Yar originally created a few years ago. It’s a tough watch but I know some will find learning more about it will give better context to understanding Red Russia / White Russia. Suffice to say Russia and the Ukraine have a painful history.

1.6M Ukrainians died fighting for the Red Army, and 3.7M Ukrainian civilians died during WW2 - including 1.5M Ukrainian Jews who perished in the Holocaust.

In the early 1930s, 3.5M Ukrainians were  starved to death by Stalin in the Holodomor.

It is difficult to comprehend what this region has been through in their history. It is heartbreaking to see what this sovereign nation is going through rn.
I went to Russia mid 1990's. Just a few years after the fall of the Soviet Union. We used the subway a lot. The subway stations were something that was amazing. Some of them were richly decorated and others looked like they ought to have been condemned. The point of bringing this up is that there is a subway station in Moscow that has a beautiful mural. It is dedicated (and commissioned during the Soviet era) to the friendship between the Russian and Ukrainian peoples. I was told that Kyiv had one just like it in their subway. I have often reflected on that during this conflict.

 
I went to Russia mid 1990's. Just a few years after the fall of the Soviet Union. We used the subway a lot. The subway stations were something that was amazing. Some of them were richly decorated and others looked like they ought to have been condemned. The point of bringing this up is that there is a subway station in Moscow that has a beautiful mural. It is dedicated (and commissioned during the Soviet era) to the friendship between the Russian and Ukrainian peoples. I was told that Kyiv had one just like it in their subway. I have often reflected on that during this conflict.
Thanks for sharing, dude. Would love to hear more of your perspective.

I've been thinking about Ukraine's shared history with the country which invaded them. I feel I know so little of Russia's past. Thumbnail knowledge of Vlad the Impaler, Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great, Elizabeth of Russia, Catherine the Great, Alexander I, Nicholas I, Alexander II, Nicholas II. I've spent far more time studying the post-Revolution nation of the last 100 years.

But most of my knowledge prior to this year centered around the Stalin era, 1922-1953. I am just now understanding the full impact of events like the Moscow Apartment Bombings (1999), the Orange Revolution (2004), the Revolution of Dignity aka The Ukrainian Revolution, et al.

I think Putin has thought a lot about his legacy. He seems to be stuck on the idea it is his life's mission to reunite the breakaway republics of the former Soviet Union, to roll back NATO security thirty years. He wants to return to an age when Russia was on equal footing with the United States. He thinks the breakup of the Soviet Union and the independence of Eastern Bloc satellite states is the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century. He wants to see a world that is bipolar bc the Cold War and MAD were stabilizing forces. Russia possesses neither the economy or the military for that to ever happen. But hey, 6K nukes, and a leader who feels cornered - doesn't seem like a good combo eh. 

Putin has badly miscalculated his military capability as well as the resistance of the Ukrainian people. He is isolated - especially throughout the Covid pandemic - and takes advice from no one. Who speaks truth to power in Russia? Those who do end up imprisoned or dead. There is no opposition leadership bc Putin has eliminated them.

I think Putin is surprised by the global condemnation. It is difficult for the western world to understand his endgame. I certainly don't pretend to know how this ends.

 
Thanks for sharing, dude. Would love to hear more of your perspective.

I've been thinking about Ukraine's shared history with the country which invaded them. I feel I know so little of Russia's past. Thumbnail knowledge of Vlad the Impaler, Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great, Elizabeth of Russia, Catherine the Great, Alexander I, Nicholas I, Alexander II, Nicholas II. I've spent far more time studying the post-Revolution nation of the last 100 years.

But most of my knowledge prior to this year centered around the Stalin era, 1922-1953. I am just now understanding the full impact of events like the Moscow Apartment Bombings (1999), the Orange Revolution (2004), the Revolution of Dignity aka The Ukrainian Revolution, et al.

I think Putin has thought a lot about his legacy. He seems to be stuck on the idea it is his life's mission to reunite the breakaway republics of the former Soviet Union, to roll back NATO security thirty years. He wants to return to an age when Russia was on equal footing with the United States. He thinks the breakup of the Soviet Union and the independence of Eastern Bloc satellite states is the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century. He wants to see a world that is bipolar bc the Cold War and MAD were stabilizing forces. Russia possesses neither the economy or the military for that to ever happen. But hey, 6K nukes, and a leader who feels cornered - doesn't seem like a good combo eh. 

Putin has badly miscalculated his military capability as well as the resistance of the Ukrainian people. He is isolated - especially throughout the Covid pandemic - and takes advice from no one. Who speaks truth to power in Russia? Those who do end up imprisoned or dead. There is no opposition leadership bc Putin has eliminated them.

I think Putin is surprised by the global condemnation. It is difficult for the western world to understand his endgame. I certainly don't pretend to know how this ends.
from what I've been able to piece together based on wikipedia, Ukraine and Russia as much closer historically.  The Russian people trace themselves back to Kievan Rus', with Kyiv as it's capital.  after Kievean Rus' fell to the Mongols, the Russian Tsardom in Moscow arose from the ashes.  But culturally, Russia hails from Ukraine.

There's like a thousand years of history between the two countries.

 
from what I've been able to piece together based on wikipedia, Ukraine and Russia as much closer historically.  The Russian people trace themselves back to Kievan Rus', with Kyiv as it's capital.  after Kievean Rus' fell to the Mongols, the Russian Tsardom in Moscow arose from the ashes.  But culturally, Russia hails from Ukraine.

There's like a thousand years of history between the two countries.
The ancestral history owing to geography and shared Slav ethnicity is undeniable. Same with Belarusians.

Seems to be a lot of cultural differences between eastern and western Ukraine. The former has more Russian speakers (though still a minority), as many Russian speaking peasants were relocated there by Stalin after the Holomodor. The western regions were under Polish control for centuries, and has a strong Catholic presence - whereas in the east most people have an Orthodox Christian background. The separatists regions are in the east.

The only place where Russians are a majority are in the Crimea.

Good background in this NatGeo article

 
So much for Putin’s pivot to China.

Chinese-sponsored media abruptly began to show Ukrainian civilian death and destruction today, ahead of Xi and Biden talk tomorrow.

 
So much for Putin’s pivot to China.

Chinese-sponsored media abruptly began to show Ukrainian civilian death and destruction today, ahead of Xi and Biden talk tomorrow.
Do they really have much of a choice? Besides, I think China sees this as a win-win-almost win for them.

Win #1 - they get to see Russia take a big black eye on the world stage, get crushed economically and pretty much reduced to a marginal 2nd tier world player (except for the nukes). I don't get the impression China has ever thought Russia their equal nor do they want to run in their circles simply because they both espouse some form of communism.

Win #2 - Russia ain't got nobody else they can turn to so China can put the screws to them for goods and services. I can see a Belt & Road approach to an economic aid package from China. We'll gladly help you out comrade but if you default, we get Siberia. What choice does Russia have at this point? We're not there yet but I can see it pretty clearly up ahead.

Almost Win - had Russia rolled Ukraine I firmly believe China would have taken a shot at Taiwan. Since the Bear fumbled the ball on the first snap from center, China took a step back.

 
Do they really have much of a choice? Besides, I think China sees this as a win-win-almost win for them.

Win #1 - they get to see Russia take a big black eye on the world stage, get crushed economically and pretty much reduced to a marginal 2nd tier world player (except for the nukes). I don't get the impression China has ever thought Russia their equal nor do they want to run in their circles simply because they both espouse some form of communism.

Win #2 - Russia ain't got nobody else they can turn to so China can put the screws to them for goods and services. I can see a Belt & Road approach to an economic aid package from China. We'll gladly help you out comrade but if you default, we get Siberia. What choice does Russia have at this point? We're not there yet but I can see it pretty clearly up ahead.

Almost Win - had Russia rolled Ukraine I firmly believe China would have taken a shot at Taiwan. Since the Bear fumbled the ball on the first snap from center, China took a step back.
Which gets us back to what seems like a daily topic… (elsewhere - here we gave up on any discussions)

Where is the exit ramp for Putin?

 
Which gets us back to what seems like a daily topic… (elsewhere - here we gave up on any discussions)

Where is the exit ramp for Putin?
Well gosh, that's the question isn't it? Only a couple of options I see as this continues to drag out...

#1 - Russia turns it around and eventually takes over Ukraine. They inherit a country they just razed to the ground because the Ukrainians will fight to the end and the West is perfectly happy to keep supplying them with armaments to drag this out as long as possible to grind down Russia. We're using Ukraine as a proxy at this point in case you haven't been paying attention. Russia ends up fighting a prolonged insurgent war that gets really ugly and bleeds Russia of people & treasure. Sound familiar?

#2 - Russia bails. They spin it as they made some inroads, maybe keep Donbas & Crimea but they go home after going scorched earth on Ukraine as much as possible as a #### you to our our funny little friend Zelensky. He probably survive the fallout back home and gets the boot or seriously cranks down on his people doing his best Stalin impression.

#3 - Somebody within puts him down and they limp on back home. To me this is way, way, way out in left field but goofy things happen between folks that have as much power & money as some of the Russian elites do.

 
We're using Ukraine as a proxy at this point in case you haven't been paying attention. Russia ends up fighting a prolonged insurgent war that gets really ugly and bleeds Russia of people & treasure. Sound familiar?
We anticipated this and in fact have been training them to fight an insurgency for years. All of the lessons we learned from Iraq we have turned around and taught them.

 
BobbyLayne said:
We anticipated this and in fact have been training them to fight an insurgency for years. All of the lessons we learned from Iraq we have turned around and taught them.
I wonder how much Soviet history they also looked at, especially with Afghanistan(another place where we spent a lot of time fighting insurgents), but clearly it’s working.

 
Win #1 - they get to see Russia take a big black eye on the world stage, get crushed economically and pretty much reduced to a marginal 2nd tier world player (except for the nukes). I don't get the impression China has ever thought Russia their equal nor do they want to run in their circles simply because they both espouse some form of communism.

Almost Win - had Russia rolled Ukraine I firmly believe China would have taken a shot at Taiwan. Since the Bear fumbled the ball on the first snap from center, China took a step back.
There's a good reason for China to let Russia hang themselves out to dry.  Why split the world three ways when you can split it 50-50 with the US.  I'm not talking necessarily militarily, but socially and economically.  If you can kick the Russkies down to AA, then it leaves you grappling with the US on the world stage in some replay of the Cold War.

 
#3 - Somebody within puts him down and they limp on back home. To me this is way, way, way out in left field but goofy things happen between folks that have as much power & money as some of the Russian elites do.


Seems like the option most of "us" would choose, right?  But who fills the vacuum?  You wanna fire the coach?  You better have a good idea of who is going to replace him.  Barry Switzer wasn't exactly an improvement on Jimmy Johnson.

 
Seems like the option most of "us" would choose, right?  But who fills the vacuum?  You wanna fire the coach?  You better have a good idea of who is going to replace him.  Barry Switzer wasn't exactly an improvement on Jimmy Johnson.
I'd take my chances on Barry Switzerovik

 
At the UN this week, the Russian Ambassador sent the Canadian Ambassador a letter regarding humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

The Canadians responded by sending back their edited version
I don’t know what I find funnier, that Russia sent this because they actually thought it might work, Canada showing themselves to be the king of the clapback in the UN, or Russia claiming “Russophobia,” or some other nonsense. No, Russia, it’s that the civilized world frowns upon one nation attacking another in an attempt to conquer it, and you woke up and chose to be that guy, and it’s only because your dictator’s just crazy enough to try and start the first Nuclear Ice Age that your own army isn’t reduced to being permanently part of the mud they’re currently stuck in.

 
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I don’t know what I find funnier, that Russia sent this because they actually thought it might work, Canada showing themselves to be the king of the clapback in the UN, or Russia claiming “Russophobia,” or some other nonsense. No, Russia, it’s that the civilized world frowns upon one nation attacking another in an attempt to conquer it, and you woke up and chose to be that guy, and it’s only because your dictator’s just crazy enough to try and start the first Nuclear Ice Age that your own army isn’t reduced to being permanently part of the mud they’re currently stuck in.
The other day I went to the Tass site (official state news of Russia) and the headlines are pretty hilarious. I noticed many of the stories referenced Sergey Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs. Seems to be giving the Iraqi information minister a run for his money.

  • Russia delivers 75 tonnes of humanitarian aid to Kherson - Defense Ministry
  • Denazification in Ukraine includes cancelling laws discriminating minority rights — Lavrov
  • Positions of Moscow, Kiev aligned positions on the most Ukraine’s neutral status — envoy(I think they mean "Ukraine’s neutral status and its non-accession to NATO are the issues where positions of Moscow and Kiev align the most")
  • Ukrainian military shells DPR 37 times in past 24 hours - DPR mission (Donbass)
  • Lukashenko says West was pushing Ukraine toward war

    Belarus was ready to deploy troops on border between Donbass, Russia - president
Not linking Tass but easy enough to find. No stories on the hundreds of Ukrainian civilians who have been killed or the three million Ukrainians have fled the country. UNICEF warned about the higher risk of human trafficking for 1.5M refugee children fleeing the conflict, including more than 500 unaccompanied children who have crossed from Ukraine into Romania.

 Good for laughs but then I started thinking about "what if this were the only news source I had?"

 
He won a Superbowl.  Just saying


I'd take my chances on Barry Switzerovik


culdeas's biases notwithstanding...We have seen this folly in Iraq, and if my very limited world-view-memory does not disserve me, Syria.  What if Ivan Adolf PutinSquared takes his place?  "We" have said in the past: "Get rid of this guy, we'll take our chances with his replacement" and not been super happy with the result.  I tend to agree with the impulse of "smert Putin!" but we may not be stoked with Comrade Barry in his place.

 
Seems like the option most of "us" would choose, right?  But who fills the vacuum?  You wanna fire the coach?  You better have a good idea of who is going to replace him.  Barry Switzer wasn't exactly an improvement on Jimmy Johnson.
From my very limited knowledge gleaned recently from a few podcasts, the alternative would probably be more old school, hardline, communist of the 60’s type. I suspect we & the world would not enjoy a kindler, more gentle Russia.

I heard it explained using the events in Iraq and it seemed a good analogy. Saddam Hussein was an evil dictator but he also held that country together for years doing evil dictator stuff. Russia is kind of similar. We think of Russia as one big huge country but in fact, Moscow looks at itself as Russia and all the surrounding regions as resource ‘states’ if you will. If Putin is removed, a lot of these regions or ‘states’ are going to bail and go out on their own. Chechnya being the first, who may leave regardless in the next year.

 
How Ukraine 🇺🇦 is handling looters

OK, this is NOT going to help your NATO application. Democracy. Nation of Laws. That sort of thing. Vigilante justice - not so much. 

Off the charts schadenfreude, though. 

(they’re also regularly violating the Geneva Convention WRT to parading P.O.W.s, but I guess when you have the whole world cheering you on, kinda know you’ll get away with.)

 
Well gosh, that's the question isn't it? Only a couple of options I see as this continues to drag out...

#1 - Russia turns it around and eventually takes over Ukraine. They inherit a country they just razed to the ground because the Ukrainians will fight to the end and the West is perfectly happy to keep supplying them with armaments to drag this out as long as possible to grind down Russia. We're using Ukraine as a proxy at this point in case you haven't been paying attention. Russia ends up fighting a prolonged insurgent war that gets really ugly and bleeds Russia of people & treasure. Sound familiar?

#2 - Russia bails. They spin it as they made some inroads, maybe keep Donbas & Crimea but they go home after going scorched earth on Ukraine as much as possible as a #### you to our our funny little friend Zelensky. He probably survive the fallout back home and gets the boot or seriously cranks down on his people doing his best Stalin impression.

#3 - Somebody within puts him down and they limp on back home. To me this is way, way, way out in left field but goofy things happen between folks that have as much power & money as some of the Russian elites do.


#2 would make the most sense but the big problem is these Russian generals have been lying to Putin ( and pocketing defense funds). In order for Putin to pull back at all, someone has to tell the Emperor he has no clothes. This could lead to more military turnover (aside from the generals they're losing in UKR.)

I think 3 might actually happen. Enough aid arrives to drag this into Summer/Autumn and Russian economy is hit hard enough for riots.

Reading some of the nerdy info, the Russian logistical problems are genuinely bad and only going to get worse.

One other disastrous outcome of a protracted war is that Ukraine crop output will be abysmal. Multiple European (and some African!) nations depend on Ukraine grains. We could see widespread hunger problems throughout the region.

 
How Ukraine 🇺🇦 is handling looters

OK, this is NOT going to help your NATO application. Democracy. Nation of Laws. That sort of thing. Vigilante justice - not so much. 

Off the charts schadenfreude, though. 

(they’re also regularly violating the Geneva Convention WRT to parading P.O.W.s, but I guess when you have the whole world cheering you on, kinda know you’ll get away with.)


Meh. Compared to the Russian Spetznatz tactics. These are small potatoes ...or grapes

 
@TrentTelenko: This Russian KIA number total is higher than the about ~15,000 Ukraine is claiming.👇👇 https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1505961677371621379


In the early days you had all these videos of people passing tank columns that were burned out.  You didn't see very many bodies in them, leading one to think maybe once one blewed up all the rest emptied out and fled.  There's not a lot of small arms fire exchanged here, mostly standoff stuff.  I don't know how much I really buy this figure.  

 
In the early days you had all these videos of people passing tank columns that were burned out.  You didn't see very many bodies in them, leading one to think maybe once one blewed up all the rest emptied out and fled.  There's not a lot of small arms fire exchanged here, mostly standoff stuff.  I don't know how much I really buy this figure.  


Well you will never get any type of accurate figure from the Russians.

 
They admitted to 26,000 casualties earlier this week.

9,861 KIA 16,153 wounded

Briefly. It was taken down in minutes.

It’s not going well.
Hopefully it doesn't derail things and war is gross when it becomes a scorecard but...

It's fascinating the perspective here. At Anteitam, there was combined tally of 22,717 dead, wounded, or missing...in one day.

 
How Ukraine 🇺🇦 is handling looters

OK, this is NOT going to help your NATO application. Democracy. Nation of Laws. That sort of thing. Vigilante justice - not so much. 

Off the charts schadenfreude, though. 

(they’re also regularly violating the Geneva Convention WRT to parading P.O.W.s, but I guess when you have the whole world cheering you on, kinda know you’ll get away with.)
If it's backed by the government, I could see this being a problem.  If it's individual people, there's not much you can do about it.  By that logic, you should be arresting all those farmers that are stealing tanks. :shrug:  

 
Hopefully it doesn't derail things and war is gross when it becomes a scorecard but...

It's fascinating the perspective here. At Anteitam, there was combined tally of 22,717 dead, wounded, or missing...in one day.
As Joseph Stalin is alleged to have said, "One death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic."  There is, unfortunately, a good deal of black humor in that statement.

 
If it's backed by the government, I could see this being a problem.  If it's individual people, there's not much you can do about it.  By that logic, you should be arresting all those farmers that are stealing tanks. :shrug:  
I hVe zero issues with it. Backed or not. 

 
If it's backed by the government, I could see this being a problem.  If it's individual people, there's not much you can do about it.  By that logic, you should be arresting all those farmers that are stealing tanks. :shrug:  
How are the farmers hauling war prizes in violation? We just making rules up now?

They are in military uniform. By definition Ukraine is responsible for their actions.

“Just following orders“ didn’t work for the Waffen SS. “Just a couple rogue soldiers” is similarly indefensible for a government.

I get it, Ukraine is being less heinous, so logically it’s OK. That’s not how any of this works.

The larger point is they are endangering their own security, long term. This cowboy stuff is exhibit A of a lack of control and discipline. It will be held against them as an example of their lack of democratic rule of law.

NATO membership requires a vote of 30-0, so yes, ultimately it will matter.

Anyway, let’s get back to cheerleading guys blowing stuff up. Nuance is tedious and boring.

 
If true, this could be huge. This is Northwest of Kyiv, where the Russians have been stuck for a couple weeks.

This could a large number of troops cut off.

@IAPonomarenko: Absolutely not ready to confirm if the Ukrainian military are really surrounding the Russian group in the Hostomel-Irpin-Bucha triangle.
But what is true is that there have been intense fighting several nights in a row, and Ukrainian units were very active cleaning out Irpin.

@sumlenny: According to unconfirmed but realistic looking reports, Russian troops have got surrounded in Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel area near Kyiv, cut from supplies. If true - the biggest defeat of a Russian army until now, and Ukraine needs to start worrying about too many POWs. https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1506265327973376009/photo/1

 
How are the farmers hauling war prizes in violation? We just making rules up now?

They are in military uniform. By definition Ukraine is responsible for their actions.

“Just following orders“ didn’t work for the Waffen SS. “Just a couple rogue soldiers” is similarly indefensible for a government.

I get it, Ukraine is being less heinous, so logically it’s OK. That’s not how any of this works.

The larger point is they are endangering their own security, long term. This cowboy stuff is exhibit A of a lack of control and discipline. It will be held against them as an example of their lack of democratic rule of law.

NATO membership requires a vote of 30-0, so yes, ultimately it will matter.

Anyway, let’s get back to cheerleading guys blowing stuff up. Nuance is tedious and boring.


Yes, that looter suppression was against regs...but compared to what these guys are seeing, it's trifling.

Warning ⚠️  picture is unpleasant 

@MFA_Ukraine: Almost all horses were burnt alive in a stable in #Hostomel, as #Russian invaders burned it down. Only few of them escaped.

#StopRussianAggression https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1506171851571023873/photo/1

 
Hopefully it doesn't derail things and war is gross when it becomes a scorecard but...

It's fascinating the perspective here. At Anteitam, there was combined tally of 22,717 dead, wounded, or missing...in one day.
Think about Russian losses in three weeks compared to the US losses in a 20 year war on terror. I heard that today in a podcast and had a hmmm moment.

 
If true, this could be huge. This is Northwest of Kyiv, where the Russians have been stuck for a couple weeks.

This could a large number of troops cut off.

@IAPonomarenko: Absolutely not ready to confirm if the Ukrainian military are really surrounding the Russian group in the Hostomel-Irpin-Bucha triangle.
But what is true is that there have been intense fighting several nights in a row, and Ukrainian units were very active cleaning out Irpin.

@sumlenny: According to unconfirmed but realistic looking reports, Russian troops have got surrounded in Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel area near Kyiv, cut from supplies. If true - the biggest defeat of a Russian army until now, and Ukraine needs to start worrying about too many POWs. https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1506265327973376009/photo/1


I mean take them into Kiev and put them in civilian buildings.  WCGW?

 

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