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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (3 Viewers)

fatness

against the grain
Russia's internment camps for Ukrainian children they've absconded with.

The Yale team says it has verified at least 6,000 Ukrainian children detained by the Russian government, although researchers believe there are thousands more. The report identifies 43 camps. "Eleven of the camps are located more than 500 miles from Ukraine's border with Russia, including two camps in Siberia and one in Russia's Far East," according to the report.

The Ukrainian children transported to Russia range in age from teens to toddlers, says Raymond. "In some cases there is adoption, other cases summer camp programs where the kids were slated to return home and never did," he says, "and in some cases they are re-education camps."

The Yale report is the most extensive look at the program so far, says Raymond. "It shows scale, it shows chain of command, it shows logistical complexity," he adds. The report also documents a start date for transporting Ukrainian children to Russia, days before the full-scale invasion began on Feb. 24, 2022. "These first transports of children in early February 2022 included a group of 500 purported orphans 'evacuated' from Donetsk Oblast by Russia.
 

fatness

against the grain
"U.S. officials said they are looking at sending Ukraine more than 5,000 assault rifles, 1.6 million rounds of small arms ammunition, a small number of antitank missiles, and more than 7,000 proximity fuses seized in recent months off the Yemen coast from smugglers suspected of working for Iran," according to The Journal. "The unusual move would open up a new supply of firepower [that] America and its allies could tap into as they struggle to meet Ukraine’s need for military support as its war with Russia enters its second year."
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/seized-iranian-weapons-could-go-to-ukraine-report
 

fatness

against the grain
Great quote in that article: “there are no idiotic decisions that our General Staff could not make.”
 

Chadstroma

Footballguy
How is Russia keeping up with everyone else supplying ukraine? Doesn’t make any sense..
Both are struggling now in certain areas. Both have been drawing off of the ridiculously immense stockpiles of the Soviet/Warsaw Pact era for ammunition and hardware.
Russia has turned to the great military powers of Iran and N. Korea to get drons and artillery ammo. Ukraine has had numerous donations of ex-Warsaw Pact now NATO nations with their old Soviet era equipment and ammo where they basically said "here, we don't need this crap anymore anyways." A huge source was actually the Russians during the successful Ukrainian offenses they conducted where the Russians left a lot of equipment and tons of ammo supply depots that were left behind. It was said that Russia had become Ukraines biggest supplier during that period.

Regardless, those stockpiles are running thin. There are multple reports of ammo shortages on both sides. Russia a while ago was known to start drawing on taking old T-62's out of storage to press into front line duty.

For the Ukrainians, it is going to be harder or more complicated to keep up the logistics as they keep getting more varied and different weapon systems to supply. However, they have shown a tremendous capability of making what they have work... from adapting use of civilian drones to making broken Russian tanks into engineering platforms and whatever else. I went through a Wiki article a little bit ago that goes through all the equipment they Ukrainian armed forces use and the sources. Most common was 'donated', then their pre-invasion equipment and then captured from the Russians.
 

themeistersinger

Footballguy
How is Russia keeping up with everyone else supplying ukraine? Doesn’t make any sense..
Both are struggling now in certain areas. Both have been drawing off of the ridiculously immense stockpiles of the Soviet/Warsaw Pact era for ammunition and hardware.
Russia has turned to the great military powers of Iran and N. Korea to get drons and artillery ammo. Ukraine has had numerous donations of ex-Warsaw Pact now NATO nations with their old Soviet era equipment and ammo where they basically said "here, we don't need this crap anymore anyways." A huge source was actually the Russians during the successful Ukrainian offenses they conducted where the Russians left a lot of equipment and tons of ammo supply depots that were left behind. It was said that Russia had become Ukraines biggest supplier during that period.

Regardless, those stockpiles are running thin. There are multple reports of ammo shortages on both sides. Russia a while ago was known to start drawing on taking old T-62's out of storage to press into front line duty.

For the Ukrainians, it is going to be harder or more complicated to keep up the logistics as they keep getting more varied and different weapon systems to supply. However, they have shown a tremendous capability of making what they have work... from adapting use of civilian drones to making broken Russian tanks into engineering platforms and whatever else. I went through a Wiki article a little bit ago that goes through all the equipment they Ukrainian armed forces use and the sources. Most common was 'donated', then their pre-invasion equipment and then captured from the Russians.
well said
 

fatness

against the grain
There's more bad news for Vladimir Putin. Europe is on course to get through winter with its vital gas storage facilities more than half full, according to a new European Commission assessment seen by POLITICO. That means despite the Russian leader's efforts to make Europe freeze by cutting its gas supply, EU economies will survive the coldest months without serious harm — and they look set to start next winter in a strong position to do the same.

A few months ago, there were fears of energy shortages this winter caused by disruptions to Russian pipeline supplies. But a combination of mild weather, increased imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and a big drop in gas consumption mean that more than 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas is projected to remain in storage by the end of March, according to the Commission analysis.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-energy-gas-supply-russia-putin-winter/
 

Chadstroma

Footballguy
This goes into a little bit how the defense industry in the west is strained due to Ukraine but focused on the impact of looking at China/Taiwan.

I remember many moons ago having a discussion in these parts about increase in money being spent on a large weapons program... I want to say it was on the Virgina Class submarines but I am not completely sure. If not then it was some other large weapons program that had limited to no use for the wars we were fighting at the time (Afghanistan and Iraq) and the expectation of some was that we would not be in a shooting war with near peer nations such as Russia and China but future wars would most likely be more low intensity/anti terror wars similar to what we were in. Thus the money spent on that was an error.

My argument was that you had to spend that money now to build these weapon systems now because if you don't then when you need them it is too late. You can't just turn a switch and turn out fast attack subs or even stinger/javelin missiles. This isn't WWII type of production where you can quickly set up and spit out 3 Liberty Ships a day.

As the article points out, the good news is that the war in Ukraine is exposing the US and allied nations woeful unpreparedness in not only military capability but in industry capability. The bad news is that it will take several years to fix.
 

Chadstroma

Footballguy
How is Russia keeping up with everyone else supplying ukraine?
They aren't. They're being degraded materially and are expending the only resource they have -- Russians.

Estimates are that over 800 Russians are dying every day right now.
The casualties are increasing greatly as pressure for them to commence offensive operations comes along with degraded weapons capability as well as almost no training. They are apparently resorting to human wave tactics.
 

massraider

Footballguy
"U.S. officials said they are looking at sending Ukraine more than 5,000 assault rifles, 1.6 million rounds of small arms ammunition, a small number of antitank missiles, and more than 7,000 proximity fuses seized in recent months off the Yemen coast from smugglers suspected of working for Iran," according to The Journal. "The unusual move would open up a new supply of firepower [that] America and its allies could tap into as they struggle to meet Ukraine’s need for military support as its war with Russia enters its second year."
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/seized-iranian-weapons-could-go-to-ukraine-report
Oh man, seized Iranian weapons, being sent to Ukraine? Heck yes.

Fun thread on how three generals got fired because the Russian uniforms are a joke, and don't keep soldiers warm

 

[icon]

Insoxicated
How is Russia keeping up with everyone else supplying ukraine? Doesn’t make any sense..

A MASSIVE stockpile of Cold War artillery

A shotload of human beings that they don't value (prisoners & ethnic minorities), and now an increasing blend in of actual Russians (stings a little more but still acceptable for now) .
 

Hot Diggity Dog

Footballguy
Amazing Europe as a whole is standing up to Russia, even to the detriment of their economies. Of course a Russin win here is worse in the long run than the pain now but still this isn't something I would have expected from Europe as a whole.
 

Chadstroma

Footballguy
Whatever happened to the sanctions?....guess that didnt work....
Sanctions don't really work... or at least in the sense that they actually change policy. Can you think of one single time that something happens in the international stage, sanctions are placed and then the country says "our bad, we will change what we were doing".

What sanctions do do is make things harder. Also, keep in mind that Russia knew it would get sanctioned so they did some preparation for that. Their economy is being hit hard by it and it is impacting both their capability to wage war and the civilian population as well. Hardship is engrained in the Russian psyche. Generation after generation of living under Tsars and then the Soviet Union and then the transition period of the fall of the Soviet Union. They can take a licking and still keep ticking.
 

Chadstroma

Footballguy
Amazing Europe as a whole is standing up to Russia, even to the detriment of their economies. Of course a Russin win here is worse in the long run than the pain now but still this isn't something I would have expected from Europe as a whole.
Poland and the Brits are leading the way as the biggest European supporters. Poland has a healthy fear of Russia and they are happy to bleed the Russians as much as possible. They are also making massive investments in building their own military up with huge purchases of American Abram tanks and F-35's as well as Korean Black Panther tanks, self propelled howitzers, light attack aircraft and more. They have announced that they will have the largest standing army in Europe outside of Turkey and Russia as well as modernizing. The American and Korean tanks will replace the massive donation of Soviet era tanks that they have given to Ukraine. They are also trying to develop their own military industrial capability. The deals for the Abrams and Black Panthers were also done to shift production to Poland under license. More than just getting jobs to Poland, it is about developing their own ability to build their own weapons. They have had some success where they basically built their own better T-72.

As is often the case, the Brits are lock step with us and understand that Russia can not be allowed to take Ukraine as long as we can supply the Ukrainians to fight. Like us and our other allies, they at first gave the obsolete to older weapon systems with some modern equipment added like the Starstreak (think British Stinger). Like everyone else as the older stuff was gone they started increasing the the donations to more modern systems such as the Challenger tank.

Germany has lagged behind but that is as much in it's lack of military capability for themselves let along excess to give away but also it's reliance on Russia energy. They have been one of the less enthusiastic supporters though they have donated. They have also been slow to approve donations of German made equipment from other nations, seemingly fearful of how Russia may react in terms of their energy needs.

I think the only European nations to not provide direct military aid to Ukraine are Switzerland and Hungary. (excluding 'nations' like Vatican City and Malta).
 

fatness

against the grain
As the article points out, the good news is that the war in Ukraine is exposing the US and allied nations woeful unpreparedness in not only military capability but in industry capability. The bad news is that it will take several years to fix.
And the other good news is that, no matter how incompetent they seem, Russia will be more incompetent a week later.
 

fatness

against the grain
Fun thread on how three generals got fired because the Russian uniforms are a joke, and don't keep soldiers warm

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1626148736295440385?t=TRzSCzluT_fWlK1Lxgj7zw&s=09
I'm going to quote part of that thread to show how Russia entered this war bereft of military capability they thought they had due to graft, and are trying to fix it with graft.

4/ The meeting discussed the quality of the military uniforms that are currently being supplied, particularly to the Russian armed forces in Ukraine.

5/ Their quality raised questions among the military commanders, who criticized the cut and seams of the uniform: in their opinion, it did not meet the requirements of thermal insulation, and the military personnel complained of cold and inconvenience.

6/ Shoigu and Gerasimov's dissatisfaction was so great that the meeting resulted in the dismissal of three logistics generals.

7/ The Ministry of Defense works with numerous suppliers of uniforms, and criticism was directed at several of them, including CJSC "Kirasa" and TsNIITOCHMASH."

8/ Verstka reports that uniforms will now be supplied by the Gardarika Design Bureau (see thread below). However, this has been criticised on Russian social media for its high cost and the owners' dubious business record and links with senior officials.

9/ Gardarika was only established in March 2022. 66% of the company is owned by 22-year-old Artyom Stepanenko (right), the son of the deputy head of the Federal Property Management Agency and former governor of the Yaroslavl region, Dmitry Stepanenko.

10/ Artyom Stepanenko appears to have no previous background in clothing manufacture. His only previous claims to fame were in crashing two expensive cars – a $100,000 Tesla and a Mercedes – and driving off without stopping in the second incident.
 

Orange&Blue

Footballguy
This goes into a little bit how the defense industry in the west is strained due to Ukraine but focused on the impact of looking at China/Taiwan.

I remember many moons ago having a discussion in these parts about increase in money being spent on a large weapons program... I want to say it was on the Virgina Class submarines but I am not completely sure. If not then it was some other large weapons program that had limited to no use for the wars we were fighting at the time (Afghanistan and Iraq) and the expectation of some was that we would not be in a shooting war with near peer nations such as Russia and China but future wars would most likely be more low intensity/anti terror wars similar to what we were in. Thus the money spent on that was an error.

My argument was that you had to spend that money now to build these weapon systems now because if you don't then when you need them it is too late. You can't just turn a switch and turn out fast attack subs or even stinger/javelin missiles. This isn't WWII type of production where you can quickly set up and spit out 3 Liberty Ships a day.

As the article points out, the good news is that the war in Ukraine is exposing the US and allied nations woeful unpreparedness in not only military capability but in industry capability. The bad news is that it will take several years to fix.

The biggest problem... It sucks doing business with the DoD. The big companies can do it because it's their core business, but the smaller companies (not talking about those classified as "small business") don't have the patience or desire to put up with the antiquated and insanely complicated acquisition process. Oh, and throw in the fact that our standard acquisition process is 1) develop widget, 2) buy 2000 widgets, 3) wait 10+ years to buy any more widgets and then act surprised when contractor laughs upon receipt of a purchase request for 10 more widgets.

And don't get me started on "lean" logistics and just in time manufacturing. That works with a stable and predictable requirement. The military is anything but that.

I remember when COVID hit the DoD was literally throwing money at companies to keep their production lines going and not lay off workers. https://www.defense.gov/News/Releas...ense-production-act-title-3-covid-19-actions/
 
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[icon]

Insoxicated
Wagner is pissed.

Russia cut off their prison recruiting, and now aren't sending them ammo.

Video of them shooting photos of Russian Generals/Commanders.


Translation.

"Gunners have good firing exercise, firing in target from 100 meters, for being good gunner, you should have many practice. Lets begin.

Gun is ****ing good, generals are ****ed up. Where is our supplies? ****ing go to frontlines for yourself, or send your marines."

Hope they'll join to kobzon soon."


Mini civil war brewing? 👀😂
 

GroveDiesel

Footballguy
Russia's internment camps for Ukrainian children they've absconded with.

The Yale team says it has verified at least 6,000 Ukrainian children detained by the Russian government, although researchers believe there are thousands more. The report identifies 43 camps. "Eleven of the camps are located more than 500 miles from Ukraine's border with Russia, including two camps in Siberia and one in Russia's Far East," according to the report.

The Ukrainian children transported to Russia range in age from teens to toddlers, says Raymond. "In some cases there is adoption, other cases summer camp programs where the kids were slated to return home and never did," he says, "and in some cases they are re-education camps."

The Yale report is the most extensive look at the program so far, says Raymond. "It shows scale, it shows chain of command, it shows logistical complexity," he adds. The report also documents a start date for transporting Ukrainian children to Russia, days before the full-scale invasion began on Feb. 24, 2022. "These first transports of children in early February 2022 included a group of 500 purported orphans 'evacuated' from Donetsk Oblast by Russia.
This really is horrifying. Gotta think the only plan for those kids is either slaves or future soldiers.
 

higgins

Footballguy
Russia's internment camps for Ukrainian children they've absconded with.

The Yale team says it has verified at least 6,000 Ukrainian children detained by the Russian government, although researchers believe there are thousands more. The report identifies 43 camps. "Eleven of the camps are located more than 500 miles from Ukraine's border with Russia, including two camps in Siberia and one in Russia's Far East," according to the report.

The Ukrainian children transported to Russia range in age from teens to toddlers, says Raymond. "In some cases there is adoption, other cases summer camp programs where the kids were slated to return home and never did," he says, "and in some cases they are re-education camps."

The Yale report is the most extensive look at the program so far, says Raymond. "It shows scale, it shows chain of command, it shows logistical complexity," he adds. The report also documents a start date for transporting Ukrainian children to Russia, days before the full-scale invasion began on Feb. 24, 2022. "These first transports of children in early February 2022 included a group of 500 purported orphans 'evacuated' from Donetsk Oblast by Russia.
This really is horrifying. Gotta think the only plan for those kids is either slaves or future soldiers.
Russia's demographic situation is horrible -- not as bad as China's but still horrible. Those kids are simply going to breed new Russians.
 

The Z Machine

Footballguy
Russia's internment camps for Ukrainian children they've absconded with.

The Yale team says it has verified at least 6,000 Ukrainian children detained by the Russian government, although researchers believe there are thousands more. The report identifies 43 camps. "Eleven of the camps are located more than 500 miles from Ukraine's border with Russia, including two camps in Siberia and one in Russia's Far East," according to the report.

The Ukrainian children transported to Russia range in age from teens to toddlers, says Raymond. "In some cases there is adoption, other cases summer camp programs where the kids were slated to return home and never did," he says, "and in some cases they are re-education camps."

The Yale report is the most extensive look at the program so far, says Raymond. "It shows scale, it shows chain of command, it shows logistical complexity," he adds. The report also documents a start date for transporting Ukrainian children to Russia, days before the full-scale invasion began on Feb. 24, 2022. "These first transports of children in early February 2022 included a group of 500 purported orphans 'evacuated' from Donetsk Oblast by Russia.
This really is horrifying. Gotta think the only plan for those kids is either slaves or future soldiers.
Russia's demographic situation is horrible -- not as bad as China's but still horrible. Those kids are simply going to breed new Russians.
Yup. I think the goal was to import children to fill the demographic hole. It simultaneously helps Russia and hurts Ukraine. There will certainly be a good amount of re-education for those children that were taken.

Horrible all around and should be considered a crime against humanity to steal children while conquering a neighboring country.

This world be like the US invading Canada, declaring BC independent, and stealing children to be raised in Pennsylvania.
 

top dog

Footballguy
What can Russia be hoping for at this point?
To outlast Ukraine. To make them suffer enough to concede the Donbas. Taking full control of the whole country is not really a feasible task for them but gaining the entire Donbas is still something they feel is obtainable. Really the only way they can save any face at this point.
 

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
You know how you've got like 80% of your stack in the pot, missed the turn, and someone comes over you to put you all in? That's Russia right now. They have a couple outs (China arms them, a Trump-type wins in two years and we stop arming Ukraine, something unexpected), but they're pretty much just pot committed and hoping for the best.
 

GroveDiesel

Footballguy
Russia's internment camps for Ukrainian children they've absconded with.

The Yale team says it has verified at least 6,000 Ukrainian children detained by the Russian government, although researchers believe there are thousands more. The report identifies 43 camps. "Eleven of the camps are located more than 500 miles from Ukraine's border with Russia, including two camps in Siberia and one in Russia's Far East," according to the report.

The Ukrainian children transported to Russia range in age from teens to toddlers, says Raymond. "In some cases there is adoption, other cases summer camp programs where the kids were slated to return home and never did," he says, "and in some cases they are re-education camps."

The Yale report is the most extensive look at the program so far, says Raymond. "It shows scale, it shows chain of command, it shows logistical complexity," he adds. The report also documents a start date for transporting Ukrainian children to Russia, days before the full-scale invasion began on Feb. 24, 2022. "These first transports of children in early February 2022 included a group of 500 purported orphans 'evacuated' from Donetsk Oblast by Russia.
This really is horrifying. Gotta think the only plan for those kids is either slaves or future soldiers.
Russia's demographic situation is horrible -- not as bad as China's but still horrible. Those kids are simply going to breed new Russians.
Yup. I think the goal was to import children to fill the demographic hole. It simultaneously helps Russia and hurts Ukraine. There will certainly be a good amount of re-education for those children that were taken.

Horrible all around and should be considered a crime against humanity to steal children while conquering a neighboring country.

This world be like the US invading Canada, declaring BC independent, and stealing children to be raised in Pennsylvania.

I believe it IS being considered a crime against humanity. But Putin doesn’t give a crap at this point. What is the world going to do about it? Go in and arrest Putin? He already knows the world generally considers him a monster, but there’s also nothing anyone will do about it other than enact sanctions which is already being done. The only other possibility is that he is overthrown and arrested. There is an extremely high level of danger in that if he even gets a whiff that it could happen.
 

The General

Footballguy
At some point our experts in this part of the world have to sit down and figure out what is a win for both sides and start there. We align with NATO on this. The Prez then has a little heart to heart with Zelensky and tells him what's up. Then Zelensky talks to Vlad and they work out the details ignore all the noise and realize this nightmare they are in has to end. Allow some country like Japan to appear to be the peacemaker if needed.

There has to be some resolution that can be figured out, neither side will be happy but Russia needs to know we will do this forever and Zelensky needs to know we are keeping his country alive.
 

[icon]

Insoxicated
At some point our experts in this part of the world have to sit down and figure out what is a win for both sides and start there. We align with NATO on this. The Prez then has a little heart to heart with Zelensky and tells him what's up. Then Zelensky talks to Vlad and they work out the details ignore all the noise and realize this nightmare they are in has to end. Allow some country like Japan to appear to be the peacemaker if needed.

There has to be some resolution that can be figured out, neither side will be happy but Russia needs to know we will do this forever and Zelensky needs to know we are keeping his country alive.


The problem is the world knows Putin/Russia lack character and will never keep up their end of the bargain, so any "agreement" is purely cosmetic and temporary.

That it and of itself is severely diminishing anyone's urges to come to the negotiating table.
 

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