What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (3 Viewers)

massraider said:
IvanKaramazov said:
This. Putin was just a minor annoyance this time two years ago. He only became Public Enemy #1 when he launched an invasion that everybody kept saying he wouldn't launch. It's like the textbook definition of myopia to think that the leader of a gang of criminal mercenaries is a guy you should get emotionally invested in.

(That said, if the criminal mercenary guy wants to kill a bunch of Russian military and political leaders on his way through the countryside, by all means be my guest.)
Click to expand...
My theory is that anyone who takes over now would be content robbing the citizenry, continuing the corruption, and can build their popularity on ending the war.
Click to expand...
AKA Russia
 
Kal El said:
I’ll be honest, I figured this war would eventually end with Ukraine keeping its pre-2014 borders, I was not expecting this turn of events. What are the chances this ignites other separatist movements in Russia? Probably too early to tell for that last one
Click to expand...
Opposition has to smell blood in the water and his allies are running for cover mostly. Apparently Putin reached out to the CTSO nations and they basically have said "yea, sounds like an internal issue... good luck with that".

The only group I have heard reports that are rallying in suppprt is the Chechens (which I have never understood how there is any level of support for Russians among thr Chechen populace after they leveled their cities not too long ago)
 
Chadstroma said:
Kal El said:
I’ll be honest, I figured this war would eventually end with Ukraine keeping its pre-2014 borders, I was not expecting this turn of events. What are the chances this ignites other separatist movements in Russia? Probably too early to tell for that last one
Click to expand...
Opposition has to smell blood in the water and his allies are running for cover mostly. Apparently Putin reached out to the CTSO nations and they basically have said "yea, sounds like an internal issue... good luck with that".

The only group I have heard reports that are rallying in suppprt is the Chechens (which I have never understood how there is any level of support for Russians among thr Chechen populace after they leveled their cities not too long ago)
Click to expand...
It comes from lots and lots of Rubles.
 
The General said:
Chadstroma said:
Kal El said:
I’ll be honest, I figured this war would eventually end with Ukraine keeping its pre-2014 borders, I was not expecting this turn of events. What are the chances this ignites other separatist movements in Russia? Probably too early to tell for that last one
Click to expand...
Opposition has to smell blood in the water and his allies are running for cover mostly. Apparently Putin reached out to the CTSO nations and they basically have said "yea, sounds like an internal issue... good luck with that".

The only group I have heard reports that are rallying in suppprt is the Chechens (which I have never understood how there is any level of support for Russians among thr Chechen populace after they leveled their cities not too long ago)
Click to expand...
It comes from lots and lots of Rubles.
Click to expand...
But what if the Chechens are bettin' on the wrong horse?
 
All timestamps are in local time (Kyiv and Moscow).

7:36 p.m. About five shots were heard near the headquarters of Russia's Southern Military District in Rostov, which is under Wagner's control, state-owned news agency RIA Novosti reported.

7:03 p.m. – Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin declared a state of emergency in Russia’s capital, adding that counter-terrorist operation measures have been declared. Sobyanin said Moscow residents, with the exception of authorities, must stay home.

6:47 p.m. – Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a phone call to discuss the latest developments in Russia. Erdogan emphasized the importance of acting with “common sense,” and said Turkey is ready to do its part to “ensure that what is happening in this context is resolved as soon as possible with peace and harmony.”
Click to expand...
kyivindependent.com

Latest in Russia: Prigozhin, Wagner forces launch armed 'rebellion' in Russia (LIVE UPDATES)

Wagner mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin launched a "march for justice" against Russian military leaders after alleging on June 23 that a missile strike on his mercenary forces in Ukraine had caused substantial casualties. At around 8 a.m. local time on June 24, Prigozhin's press...
kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com
 
tri-man 47 said:
The General said:
Chadstroma said:
Kal El said:
I’ll be honest, I figured this war would eventually end with Ukraine keeping its pre-2014 borders, I was not expecting this turn of events. What are the chances this ignites other separatist movements in Russia? Probably too early to tell for that last one
Click to expand...
Opposition has to smell blood in the water and his allies are running for cover mostly. Apparently Putin reached out to the CTSO nations and they basically have said "yea, sounds like an internal issue... good luck with that".

The only group I have heard reports that are rallying in suppprt is the Chechens (which I have never understood how there is any level of support for Russians among thr Chechen populace after they leveled their cities not too long ago)
Click to expand...
It comes from lots and lots of Rubles.
Click to expand...
But what if the Chechens are bettin' on the wrong horse?
Click to expand...
That’s why it’s called betting and not winning!
 
themeistersinger said:
Chechen leader Kadyrov's Akhmat troops have reached the Aksai, 15 minutes from Rostov. Kadyrov had made statements in favor of Putin after Prizgohin's rebellion.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
This makes me wonder if the best-case scenario for Putin at this point is for the Wagner forces and the Chechens to beat the crap out of each other, weakening them both.

Like an NFL or NBA draft or big trade, we're gonna need a review of the winners and losers. It seems Russia falls into both categories. They win if the Wagner revolt fails. But they lose if their best fighting force is no longer leading the charge in Ukraine.
 
New Binky the Doormat said:
where can I go to get a clear and reasonably straight-forward (simple) explanation of what the hell is going on?
Click to expand...
Wagner is a mercenary group that Putin has been using to project Russian military might without using Russian military. They were used a lot in Syria and since expanded to numerous countries.

Progozhin, the leader of Wagner, is a convict/gang member connected to Putin by his gangs boss. After a prison sentence,.he got hooked up with a restaurant and then lucrative Russian government contracts for catering. One of which was to the Russian military which he gained a lot of contacts with during. At some point, this converted into starting Wagner.

Wagner was basically the place all the scum that were too scummy for even the Russian military, and got kicked out, to go to to use their skills and make a living.

With Ukraine, the numbers exploded with them being able to go to Russian prisons and empty them in exchange for service.

They have been one of, if not the most, effective fighting units in Ukraine. A lot of tension came as Progozhin has been vocal of calling out the Russian leadership, while always being careful to deflect away from Putin, for all their short comings.

Pressure has been building against Progozhin for a while. I think he felt thr pressure and felt like he either needed to try this coup or end up falling out of a window soon.

He launched this coup. Here we are.
 

This is the million dollar question. No defections, no coup.
Click to expand...

Outside of actual unit defections, I'd also pose a question of whether there's any involvement from Putin's inner circle and/or elites. How deep does this go? Unclear. Launching this without any backing from either of those two seems unwise. Surovikin essentially disavowing Wagner is a blow to their efforts here.


From an old @MarkGaleotti article on regime assets near Moscow - 2nd Guards Tamanskaya Motor Rifle, 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya Tank (20k troops)- Presidential Regiment (5.5k plus 5k other personnel)- National Guard (around 20k)- Regular police (50k)
Click to expand...


Elements of 2nd and 4th divs are in Ukraine, but at least a rgt of each is still on base, so min of 3-5k army troops. Even so, pitted against 10k-ish Wagner w/o much artillery, air defence, etc that ought to suffice. It's all about whether there are defections to Wagner
Click to expand...



BREAKING — Prigozhin says the Wagner convoy is turning around and heading back to its basecamps.
Click to expand...
 

“We set off on June 23 on our March for justice. In 24 hours we moved 200km to Moscow. During that time we didn’t spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Right now the moment has come when blood could be spilled.”
Click to expand...


“Therefore, understanding all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be spilled, on one side, we are turning our convoy around and going back to our basecamps, according to the plan.”
Click to expand...


*BREAKING* Prigozhin announced that the columns are turning around and returning to the camps!
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
Worth noting that the VKS only appears to have committed rotary-wing assets for the moment. Their fixed-wing assets are noticeably absent.
Click to expand...

At this time it appears that the only real resistance to Wagner has come from the Russian air force (VKS), for which they have also paid a heavy price today. VKS losses today rival their worst days in the entire war.
Click to expand...
 

Prigozhin says it's over:"They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That’s why, understanding the responsibility for spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps according to the plan."
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
Video here of the look on the ground today in Rostov: https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1672658414172794887


War correspondent Sasha Kots credits Belarusian President Lukashenko with negotiating this turn of events. Prigozhin does refer to a "plan," but didn't mention Batka.
Click to expand...


Russian state media also credits Lukashenko with talking down Prigozhin and offering him a safe exit from his march toward Moscow. Unclear what happens next, but the watchword is "de-escalation."
Click to expand...


Okay, so what happens now? I can’t imagine Putin says “it’s all water under the bridge” and everything goes back to normal?
Click to expand...
 
Don't Toews Me said:
Video here of the look on the ground today in Rostov: https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1672658414172794887


War correspondent Sasha Kots credits Belarusian President Lukashenko with negotiating this turn of events. Prigozhin does refer to a "plan," but didn't mention Batka.
Click to expand...


Russian state media also credits Lukashenko with talking down Prigozhin and offering him a safe exit from his march toward Moscow. Unclear what happens next, but the watchword is "de-escalation."
Click to expand...


Okay, so what happens now? I can’t imagine Putin says “it’s all water under the bridge” and everything goes back to normal?
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
And just like that it is over.
 
All timestamps are in local time (Kyiv and Moscow).

8: 34 p.m. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner Group, said on Telegram that the mercenaries would stop their march on Moscow and withdraw to military field camps.

8:14 p.m. At least six planes belonging to top Russian officials and businessmen have left Moscow amid the rebellion launched by Wagner mercenaries, Russia's Vazhnye Isorii investigative journalism project reported on June 24, citing data from the Flightradar24 flight tracking site.

Two planes belonging to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin flew from Moscow to St. Petersburg earlier on June 24, while a business jet belonging to Russian oligarch Arkady Rotenberg landed in Baku around 3 p.m. local time, Vazhnye Istorii reported.
Click to expand...
kyivindependent.com

Latest in Russia: Prigozhin, Wagner forces launch armed 'rebellion' in Russia (LIVE UPDATES)

Wagner mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin launched a "march for justice" against Russian military leaders after alleging on June 23 that a missile strike on his mercenary forces in Ukraine had caused substantial casualties. At around 8 a.m. local time on June 24, Prigozhin's press...
kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com
 

MOD wants to dissolve Wagner. Wagner goes to Moscow. Wagner stops 200 or so km short of Moscow. Prigozhin says it's because he doesn't want to spill Russia blood. Likely explanation: he was given exclusive guarantees and protection from Putin and/or promise to change smth in MOD
Click to expand...


Take every official statement by Prigozhin and regarding Prigozhin with a grain of salt. This "special armed rebellion" is too darn special
Click to expand...


There's already a struggle breaking out on Telegram channels over credit for convincing Prigozhin to turn around. Lukashenko struck first and loudest, but others insist that Tula Governor Alexey Dyumin was the main negotiator.
Click to expand...
 

Hard personally for me to imagine that Prigozhin would have done this for anything less than Shoigu & Gerasimov’s ouster.
Click to expand...


Putin would look unbelievably weak if he removed Shoigu and/or Gerasimov after this, seemingly caving to an armed mutiny by a private army. It would IMO greatly increase the chances that members of the elite start looking for post-Putin options.
Click to expand...


Pretty amazing that Belarus announced a deal to defuse the coup in Russia almost an hour ago, and the Kremlin has said absolutely nothing about it
Click to expand...
 
I question the veracity of Wagner turning around after going through all this trouble. There’s no way anybody in Wagner could take direction from anyone in the Russian government, they already know Russia doesn’t have the resources to stop them anyway, and if I were a betting man, I’d bet a lot of money that Putin is not going to sit idly by with a force within his borders that’s openly shown hostility and killed some of his own soldiers. Even if they have turned away, I don’t think this is over by a long shot
 
Desert_Power said:
massraider said:
Murph said:
So I guess Lukashenko didn't flee then? Once again demonstrating that "everywhere on Twitter" is not a source.
Click to expand...
If you are going to demand verified sources, this is not the conflict for you. Clearly.

Can’t believe anything in real time.
Click to expand...
Even harder to do when Twitter got rid of their verification system under Elmo.
Click to expand...
Coverage of this conflict on Twitter is vastly superior to that of the traditional media. As usual.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

comfortably numb
  • Locked
Has World War III begun and we just don't realize it yet?
Replies
9
Views
1K
Shutout
Shutout
[icon]
  • Locked
"Anatomy of the Deep State" - Unsettling look at American Poli
Replies
3
Views
2K
FBG Moderator
F

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top