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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (3 Viewers)


One thing that Prigozhin references in this message is Shoigu’s plan to dismantle Wanger and other PMCs by July 1. Part of the deal here is clearly that Prigozhin gets to keep Wagner. The timing of this mutiny was not an accident. Protection of business interests above all!
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^We don't know a lot yet


Images still surfacing of what was apparently discovered at today's raids of Prigozhin's offices. Will be interesting to see what happens to his reputation in the next couple of days, if this de-escalation holds.
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Russian state media reports that Belarus President Lukashenko negotiated with Prigozhin to end hostilities. https://ria.ru/20230624/peregovory-1880244486.html
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Rostov-on-Don's Rostov' news161ru outlet is claiming PMC Wagner personnel is getting into vehicles and preparing to leave the city's center, but the video, which is attached to the message, doesn't show any cars leaving
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Good luck figuring all this out.

Seems hard to believe Putin helped orchestrate it though -- it makes him look weak regardless of exactly what is really going down.
 
Kal El said:
I question the veracity of Wagner turning around after going through all this trouble. There’s no way anybody in Wagner could take direction from anyone in the Russian government, they already know Russia doesn’t have the resources to stop them anyway, and if I were a betting man, I’d bet a lot of money that Putin is not going to sit idly by with a force within his borders that’s openly shown hostility and killed some of his own soldiers. Even if they have turned away, I don’t think this is over by a long shot
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Russia does have forces in and around Moscow. Likely not all have been deployed to Ukraine. No need to go into specifics of the units involved. There is also the FSO and subdivisions of FSO such as SBP.
 

How can Putin do a deal with Prigozhin after telling the nation he's a traitor? What kind of "security guarantees" can Prigozhin get, when Putin said he'd kill him? And if Prigozhin got anything out of the deal, such as Shoigu's resignation – how could Putin possibly agree?
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Former Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, calls on people to "rally around" Vladimir Putin to ensure "victory" over the "external and internal enemy". A message aimed at the elite – shows the clear impact of Prigozhin's "armed rebellion" (phrase used by Russian authorities).
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Can an armed group like Wagner take control of some of Russia's nuclear weapons and somehow use or detonate them? The short answer is no, it's virtually impossible. I wanted to write a longer thread, but things are happening way too fast. 1/
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This crisis is far from over....likely will continue to boil: https://twitter.com/russianforces/status/1672665650530058242?cxt=HHwWhIC8_YCjwLYuAAAA

 
Don't Toews Me said:
Kal El said:
I question the veracity of Wagner turning around after going through all this trouble. There’s no way anybody in Wagner could take direction from anyone in the Russian government, they already know Russia doesn’t have the resources to stop them anyway, and if I were a betting man, I’d bet a lot of money that Putin is not going to sit idly by with a force within his borders that’s openly shown hostility and killed some of his own soldiers. Even if they have turned away, I don’t think this is over by a long shot
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Russia does have forces in and around Moscow. Likely not all have been deployed to Ukraine. No need to go into specifics of the units involved. There is also the FSO and subdivisions of FSO such as SBP.
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Given what we’ve seen from Russia’s military, I think they’d at best slow Wagner down, but I can see their point from a PR stance. If they want the backing of the people, they can’t be seen killing fellow Russians. This still feels like the opening act, and I think Wagner turned back in part to make sure their supply chain isn’t stretched too thin. Bad things are in Russia’s future in any event
 
Interesting: https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1672674067940360193

What is much More interesting and was found during the search in Prigozhin's office is another passport. It looks like a passport issued for real Prigozhin, but with his cover-up name name (I wonder if it's why that Fontanka post was taken down so quickly).
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Belarus says Lukashenko spoke to Putin "in detail about the results of negotiations with the leadership of Wagner PMC. The President of Russia supported and thanked his Belarusian colleague for his work." Still nothing out of Russia.
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In the aftermath of Prigozhin's "stand down" order, pro-Kremlin Telegram channels are trying to understand his motivations: "Let's understand this "peaceful protest" called the "justice march". Six downed helicopters and one plane is not justice. Blocking Russian cities is not justice. The seizure of military airfields is not justice. At peaceful protests, tanks and BMPs are not dragged on trawls to the capital, paralyzing traffic on several federal highways. And they don't put the state in front of the abyss by putting the barrel of a pistol to the back of his head."
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Kadyrov already back to normal programming, talking about "humanitarian aid" conducted by Akhmat Group in occupied Ukraine
https://t.co/KIXeJGPdfc
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We still have no idea what really motivated him, but one plausible scenario is Prigozhin found out the state was moving against him and he struck first. Or at least that’s how he wants it perceived. Regardless he was likely more successful than even he anticipated.
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Lipetsk's governor says the region is rolling back its security restrictions and reopening the highways it closed to stop Prigozhin's column marching to Moscow.
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Alexander S. Vindman@AVindman
Regardless of how this insurrection is ends, the damage is done. Putin is severely wounded as the political leader of Russia. Things may unravel quickly for him. And Russian forces in Ukraine have been thrown into chaos at the upper echelons. The battlefield may also unravel.
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Kal El said:
Don't Toews Me said:
Kal El said:
I question the veracity of Wagner turning around after going through all this trouble. There’s no way anybody in Wagner could take direction from anyone in the Russian government, they already know Russia doesn’t have the resources to stop them anyway, and if I were a betting man, I’d bet a lot of money that Putin is not going to sit idly by with a force within his borders that’s openly shown hostility and killed some of his own soldiers. Even if they have turned away, I don’t think this is over by a long shot
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Russia does have forces in and around Moscow. Likely not all have been deployed to Ukraine. No need to go into specifics of the units involved. There is also the FSO and subdivisions of FSO such as SBP.
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Given what we’ve seen from Russia’s military, I think they’d at best slow Wagner down, but I can see their point from a PR stance. If they want the backing of the people, they can’t be seen killing fellow Russians. This still feels like the opening act, and I think Wagner turned back in part to make sure their supply chain isn’t stretched too thin. Bad things are in Russia’s future in any event
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Wagner would have (likely) needed defections. It is an interesting hypothetical to analyze though despite incomplete information.
 
thecatch said:
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Alexander S. Vindman@AVindman
Regardless of how this insurrection is ends, the damage is done. Putin is severely wounded as the political leader of Russia. Things may unravel quickly for him. And Russian forces in Ukraine have been thrown into chaos at the upper echelons. The battlefield may also unravel.
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Seems like wishful thinking.
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Agreed.

For all we know this was a ploy by Putin to get Prig isolated so he can finish him off.
 

I think the catalyst for this was the move by the MoD to force all PMCs to sign contracts with them, which likely had Putin's support. There might be a short-term compromise or truce, but I don't think things can go back to normal after this.
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If Prigozhin’s 200km brag is true, then they were in Tula when they stopped, too.
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My main thought, as Prigozhin sends his men back to base, is that this isn’t over yet.I’m not suggesting that Prigozhin will try again. But my strong sense is that Putin’s challenges are only beginning. /1
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Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin published a new audio recording Saturday claiming he was turning his forces around from a march toward Moscow. “We turning our columns around and going back in the other direction toward our field camps, in accordance with the plan.”

:bored:


This meathead isn't smart, he just looks that way compared to anyone in the Russian military.
 

I can confirm than no amount of education in Russian Studies can prepare you to understand Russian studies.
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National Guard armored vehicles are reportedly leaving checkpoints set up today in Moscow. The situation really does look to be well into in de-escalation. https://t.me/breakingmash/45350
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I think Prigozhin permanently lost support from some war supporters because of this. Putin publicly declared these actions a betrayal, and it appears Wagner shot down several Ru Air Force aircraft, which they need. He also publicly embarrassed Putin and made him look weak. 3/
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Over the past few days, Prigozhin elevated this from a conflict with Shoigu and Gerasimov to a challenge to Putin. He did not immediately back down after Putin's speech, and he publicly demonstrated that he is a potential threat to Putin. This isn't a sustainable situation. 4/
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thecatch said:
Seems like wishful thinking.
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Maybe.

But it's really hard to construct a story that makes Putin stronger out of this. You can start with a blank piece of paper and not come up with much. He went on TV to call them betrayers and traitors. Prigozhin threatened to kill high-ranking Russian officials. And... now we're just going to forget all that? Even if it was a show -- which seems possible -- this stuff doesn't happen if Putin is really in control of things.
 

US intelligence officials believe that Yevgeny Prigozhin, chief of the private Wagner military group, had been planning a major challenge to Russia’s military leadership for quite some time, but it was unclear what the ultimate aim would be, three people familiar with the matter told CNN.

Intelligence officials briefed congressional leaders known as the Gang of Eight earlier this week concerning Wagner group movements and equipment buildups near Russia, two of the people said.

US and Western intelligence officials saw signs that Prigozhin was making preparations for such a move, including by massing weapons and ammunition, one Western intelligence official and another person familiar with the intelligence said.

A source familiar with the intelligence said “it all happened very quickly,” and it was difficult to discern how serious Prigozhin was about threatening the Russian military and where he would take his troops.
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Dinsy Ejotuz said:
thecatch said:
Seems like wishful thinking.
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Maybe.

But it's really hard to construct a story that makes Putin stronger out of this. You can start with a blank piece of paper and not come up with much. He went on TV to call them betrayers and traitors. Prigozhin threatened to kill high-ranking Russian officials. And... now we're just going to forget all that? Even if it was a show -- which seems possible -- this stuff doesn't happen if Putin is really in control of things.
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your logic makes sense to me but at the end of the day we have literally no idea what’s going on and Russian internal dynamics frequently play out in ways that don’t make sense to us. Even the Russian experts that have been pretty consistently reliable like Michael Kofman aren’t pretending to understand any of this. So I won’t hold my breath in terms of this being a watershed moment for Ukraine’s defense or the future of the Putin regime.
 
thecatch said:
your logic makes sense to me but at the end of the day we have literally no idea what’s going on and Russian internal dynamics frequently play out in ways that don’t make sense to us. Even the Russian experts that have been pretty consistently reliable like Michael Kofman aren’t pretending to understand any of this. So I won’t hold my breath in terms of this being a watershed moment for Ukraine’s defense or the future of the Putin regime.
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Agree with all of this, but even if this wasn't a massive turning point, how could this be anything but good for Ukraine?

Also very possible that this might not appear to be a watershed moment, but could be in hindsight. People have pointed out that failed coups usually are a harbinger.

But, at the end of it all, I refer back to your true statement: we have no idea.
 
There has to be more to this than we know. Prigozhin openly says he going to Moscow. Putin calls him a traitor and now we are supposed to believe they are letting bygones be bygones. Prigozhin is basically going to be looking over his shoulder for the rest of life and probably having to pay people to "taste" his food before he gets to eat any meal.
 
thecatch said:
we have literally no idea what’s going on and Russian internal dynamics
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I agree with you. But the public nature of all this makes it hard to put the toothpaste back in the tube. But I agree with you. But what Massraider said. But I agree with you.

(it's complicated)
 
Courtjester said:
There has to be more to this than we know. Prigozhin openly says he going to Moscow. Putin calls him a traitor and now we are supposed to believe they are letting bygones be bygones. Prigozhin is basically going to be looking over his shoulder for the rest of life and probably having to pay people to "taste" his food before he gets to eat any meal.
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He already had to do that. Lots of people wanted hi dead before all this BS in Ukraine.
 
So to summarize the last 24 hours:

Prighozin calls for MoD Shoigu to be hung, who in turn fires a missile at the Wagner group, who then marches and occupies Rostov and shoots down several Russian aircraft, then marches on Moscow only to make a u-turn because Lukaschenko calls Prighozin.
 
foreignpolicy.com

Prigozhin’s Defiant Stand: ‘How Did We Get to This Situation?’

What Russian elites are thinking about the mercenary leader’s abortive march on Moscow.
foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com

To make sense of the crisis and what shock waves it might send through Russian elites, Foreign Policy spoke to Tatiana Stanovaya, an expert on Russian politics with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank and the founder of R.Politik, an independent political analysis firm. The interview was conducted before Prigozhin announced his forces were backing down.
The interview has been edited for length and clarity.
What’s your assessment of the mood among Russian elites and Putin’s inner circle in Moscow now?


So many people in state institutions, in the government security services, the presidential administration, talked about Prigozhin as a threat. Many were surprised and perplexed by the fact that Putin remained so tolerant of this. People theorized there were some hidden agendas. We tracked rumors that Prigozhin was carefully managed by the Kremlin, that he would never fall out of its control. And now we are seeing that yes, actually, he did.
We may now see a response of more repression on all of the Wagner [Group]’s network and infrastructure. People who were linked to Prigozhin will become vulnerable, and they will have to prove to Putin that they are on his side.
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What’s Prigozhin’s endgame here?
In the beginning yesterday, when he released an interview and video where he said that the military attacked Wagner forces, I think that he aimed to attack only [Defense Minister Sergei] Shoigu and [Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery] Gerasimov.
Then it shifted very abruptly, and we came to this situation where he turned out to lack significant support from serious people in Moscow. I think that he had counted on at least some support. He likely believed that Putin would find himself confronted with a situation where he had to support Prigozhin and dismiss Shoigu. That was a massive miscalculation by Prigozhin.

When Putin gave his public address to Russians and talked about betrayal, for Prigozhin, it was a pivotal point where the conflict turned into a personal problem between Prigozhin and Putin. It was clear then that the situation was impossible to repair. And now Prigozhin has been completely abandoned. And I don’t see any real scenarios for him but to be completely destroyed.
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What are the Wagner Group’s chances of success, or even Prigozhin coming out of this mutiny alive, for that matter?
Honestly, I think that the chances of Prigozhin staying alive are very slim. The Russian authorities made clear he must be destroyed. So it’s only a question of the price and the time. But they will try to find any possible way to end this.
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Does Prigozhin have any support from other elites in Moscow or Putin’s inner circle?
I don’t believe so. Some other analysts have tried to convince me that Prigozhin has some people in Moscow supporting him. Who? I don’t see anyone. We know that Prigozhin had some contacts with the Federal Protective Service that are responsible for Putin’s personal security. But can I imagine that any of them will switch to support Prigozhin? For me that seems impossible.
Anton Vaino, Putin’s chief of staff, has often played the role of mediator between Putin and Prigozhin, especially during the Syria war. But he’s just an executor of Putin’s orders. He will do what Putin asks, and that’s it.
I can’t imagine now that someone powerful in Moscow, in a normal state of mind, would choose to back Prigozhin. It’s suicide. All these elites who have maintained ties to Prigozhin will likely try to prove that they have nothing to do with him, and they will condemn him to distance themselves from this.
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^It was noticeable how quickly some Russian generals who Prigozhin reportedly approved of abandoned him once he pulled this stunt. Sergei Surovikin being one (Prigozhin had previously welcomed the appointment of Surovikin to lead the Ukraine war when he was appointed to do so many months ago and has previously said that Surovikin should replace Gerasimov)

In an autocratic country where dissent is so stifled, why was Prigozhin allowed to be so critical of the military before this crisis blew up?
Prigozhin was considered in Putin’s eyes as a real patriot, a representative of Russia’s civil society, but a civil society that is worried about Russian strategy. That is why this situation has been so painful for Putin, and why he referred to it as “a stab in the back” from someone who Putin believed was a loyal, patriotic man.
The president’s administration and security elites had their hands tied because they did not have any sign from Putin that they had a right to move against Prigozhin, and they really wanted to. So they had to tolerate him. And even many of them convinced themselves that Prigozhin is someone who is useful for the regime.
Prigozhin felt that there was a space to maneuver, and he started to push the boundaries, and then he felt that he faced no response, no resistance. That started to change in recent weeks, when he was kicked out from Ukraine without a chance to return, and he was losing out on authorities to recruit people in other regions in Russia, and he was not allowed on TV, he felt like he was becoming too vulnerable politically just in face of a huge repressive machine regime that has rallied against him.
So he had to act, and I think in the beginning he thought when he acted that Putin would respond with moves in his favor.
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What are you watching for next?
What I’m trying most to understand is how this crisis may deepen a split within Russian society. People are talking much, much more about a possible civil war because of this split, where on the one hand we have a part of society that supports Prigozhin, that is worried with the way the war is going, with an ineffective and corrupt army.

And on the other side there are people saying that in any situation we must stand by the state and support it, and whatever happens, we must consolidate it.
We are seeing hints already. You can see in some Russian Telegram channels, people questioning, “Why have the authorities refused a dialogue with Prigozhin? He deserves it.” And I’m afraid that if this crisis ends on a bitter note, it will fuel more resentment.
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Wow. Putin's spokesman says the felony case against Prigozhin will be closed and he will get exile in Belarus. Amnesty for all insurrection participants in light of their service in Ukraine.
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Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov: charges dropped against Prigozhin, who will leave Russia for Belarus. Wagner fighters who didn't take part in the uprising will sign contracts with the MOD. Wagner fighters who did take part not charged. No word on potential MOD leadership changes
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If this is true, it likely wouldn't be a solution. Wagner has a large presence across Africa, which benefits and depends on the Russian government/military. Would the Kremlin allow the same dynamic to continue if Prigozhin and Wagner are based in Belarus?
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Despite declaring Prigozhin a "traitor" and vowing to "liquidate" Wagner on Saturday morning, Peskov said Putin had asked Lukashenko to mediate in the hope of avoiding any further bloodshed because the Belarusian leader has known Prigozhin for 20 years.
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The Kremlin says parts of Wagner -- fighters that didn't take part in today's events -- will be absorbed into the regular army. This is something Prigozhin has been fighting against and which was probably one of the reasons he started his "rebellion" in the first place.
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Putin will not make any further comment on the issue. The invasion of Ukraine will continue as normal.No word from Peskov on whether Prigozhin managed to secure Shoigu's resignation – he said only Putin has that authority so Prigozhin and Lukashenko couldn't discuss it.
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KingPrawn said:
So to summarize the last 24 hours:

Prighozin calls for MoD Shoigu to be hung, who in turn fires a missile at the Wagner group, who then marches and occupies Rostov and shoots down several Russian aircraft, then marches on Moscow only to make a u-turn because Lukaschenko calls Prighozin.
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I'm starting to suspect that the Russians are not the empire-building masterminds that we believed them to be.
 
MOSCOW (AP) — Kremlin spokesman says Wagner owner Yevgeny Prigozhin will move to Belarus as part of deal to defuse rebellion tensions.


Prigozhin traded in for a new model of patron?
 

1ADAT claims Kadyv tried to send most of the republic's Ministry of Emergency Situations personnel to Moscow in order to inflate the numbers of his contribution to protecting the capital. This is plausible, as he often uses MES employees in similar ways
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Kadyrovite media reports 3k fighters from Rosgvardia's 94th & 96th regiments, Sever & Yug Battalions were guarding Moscow by early morning. Two notes:1) Kadyrov was active, even if he was silent, overnight2) Still no confirmed details on Rostov units
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If true, add another likely 3-5k from 2nd Guards Tamanskaya Motor Rifle, 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya Tank as well as police, FSO, and others National Guard units of unknown quantities.

Video of Prigozhin driving away in his SUV: https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672703994710441984

More video: https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1672704473334988801

Better video of Prigozhin leaving Rostov. Looks a little bit like a celebrity sighting with people cheering him and one man running up to the car to shake his hand. Some earlier clips showed locals being pretty warm towards Wagner fighters.
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Thread: https://twitter.com/IlyaMatveev_/status/1672703972925390849

Fact: Wagner troops did have their own command structure and were ready to follow Prigozhin. 1/
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Client Challenge

www.ft.com

The exact circumstances leading to the uprising remain unclear. One person close to the FSB said Russia’s security forces had spent the past several days preparing for some kind of assault, suggesting Prigozhin had learnt of the plan and had decided to go out all guns blazing. “This isn’t out of nowhere and it didn’t come as a surprise,” the person said.
Another former senior Kremlin official said the conflict with the army had driven Prigozhin — a former criminal who is said to revel in publicly executing deserters — to even further extremes.
“He went nuts, flew into a rage and went too far. He added too much salt and pepper,” the former official said. “What else do you expect from a chef?”
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If true, Prigozhin also lacked the element of surprise.
 
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