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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (2 Viewers)

It’s time to stop the use of the word “oligarch”.
 

The name imparts some sort of elite hierarchy, when they’re really just greedy, connected, business men, with extremely loose morals. That will do anything to enrich themselves. F em
Honestly, I've only ever heard it used in reference to putin's capos so I'm fine with it because I know exactly who it's referring to. And tbh they are part of an elite hierarchy, not one that imparts respect but they certainly are at the top of the food chain in russia.

 
Barring WW3, Ukraine is not going to have the same borders anymore when this is over.  So what is acceptable to Ukraine and the international community?  They need to start negotiating that now, or be prepared for NATO/USA to escalate this.  Otherwise, we are just prolonging innocents lives being destroyed.  
I know everybody hates this, but I think the answer is that if Putin takes Ukraine or part of Ukraine, he takes it.  If we could reload a save point from early February and replay that segment, maybe we could do something differently that would effectively deter the invasion, but now that it's happened there's not much we can do about it militarily without running what I see as an unacceptably high risk of a nuclear exchange.  

That sucks for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people obviously.  There are more important things at stake right now.

 
If Russia won’t accept that a portion of Ukraine remains independent and that they would want to arm themselves or join NATO then there can be no agreement they say. 

So we are left with Russia thinking they can eventually “win” simply by their advantage. For Ukraine they can only by dragging it out, take unimaginable amounts of damage and horrible attacks on civilians, and hope the sanctions and world pressure becomes too great.

And here we all are being held hostage  by a lunatic with nukes that he knows mean we can’t do much watching this nation get destroyed. 

How do we get a deal that allows both sides to walk away, there isn’t one until the other is destroyed or simply cannot fight any longer. 

 
I think this is true.  I think as long as Putin doesn't escalate much further, he's at least obtained Crimea and the Donbas for Russia.  He is walking a fine line, though, because the international community will punish Russia for this mess and give it all back to Ukraine if there is any EU or NATO involvement.

I starting to think we will have a long drawn out process over the next 10-20 months.  A lot depends on if Ukraine can hold Kyiv and keep Zelenskyy alive or at least maintain a semblance of governance and organized military.  I believe the latter will be achieved because of all of the international assistance, even if they have to relocate to Lviv.
The problem is Putin is planning on taking all of Ukraine and "pacifying" it.  That became very clear after his discussions with Macron yesterday...read up on the statements he made.  If you read Fiona Hills interview she points out that for 10 years he  has told everyone what he is going to do and people did not believe.  His place in history is to retake all of "Mother Russia" in his lifetime. There will be no Ukraine when he is done and "genocide" will likely occur to all who do any form of resistance.  He has done this before but it was more hidden (especially Chechnya).

It is amazing how many still do not believe what he has said previously....wait until nukes are planted on the Bulgaria and Polish borders.  Wait until he puts his army on the borders of the Baltic States to invade.  We have to start thinking about his long term goals and how to deal with them, because Putin holding the rest of the world hostage by threatening a nuclear strike will allow him to continue to conquest other free countries.  The whole thing is a mess, but we need to readjust our mindset moving forward.

 
The problem is Putin is planning on taking all of Ukraine and "pacifying" it.  That became very clear after his discussions with Macron yesterday...read up on the statements he made.  If you read Fiona Hills interview she points out that for 10 years he  has told everyone what he is going to do and people did not believe.  His place in history is to retake all of "Mother Russia" in his lifetime. There will be no Ukraine when he is done and "genocide" will likely occur to all who do any form of resistance.  He has done this before but it was more hidden (especially Chechnya).

It is amazing how many still do not believe what he has said previously....wait until nukes are planted on the Bulgaria and Polish borders.  Wait until he puts his army on the borders of the Baltic States to invade.  We have to start thinking about his long term goals and how to deal with them, because Putin holding the rest of the world hostage by threatening a nuclear strike will allow him to continue to conquest other free countries.  The whole thing is a mess, but we need to readjust our mindset moving forward.
Not that you need or asked for my affirmation but all of the above is true.

I thought there might be some wiggle room when all this started and Ukraine could cede some territory to Mother Russia and still maintain their independence. That's a pipe dream. It's all or nothing for Putin in Ukraine. There will be no capitulation, no granting of terms, no leaving part of the country Ukraine and the rest going back to Russia. It's everything or reducing it all to a pile of rubble regardless of the cost.

 
Barring WW3, Ukraine is not going to have the same borders anymore when this is over.  So what is acceptable to Ukraine and the international community?  They need to start negotiating that now, or be prepared for NATO/USA to escalate this.  Otherwise, we are just prolonging innocents lives being destroyed.  


Zero concessions, even if we won't get involved militarily more sanctions (including all oil/gas) in effect indefinitely and until he leaves all of Ukraine including Crimea.  Pacifism does not beat Fascism and he won't stop here if we just back down again, and cannot end up with any reward for his actions.  We have actually been pandering to Putin for far too long already. 

 
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I read all this about how things will take months to sort out, but on a practical level I feel like Ukraine is lost.  Russia may pay severely in economic sanctions, but the country of Ukraine is gone and will be fully annexed.  Once you cut off the UKR army it's an insurgency fighting and as we saw with the Taliban that takes decades to work out.   

I don't know what the end game here is that pushes things back to normal for them without the EU getting involved.  And they have their lines drawn. 

So in a month, maybe two the EU is left with a huge cache of refugees and a lack of energy and other economic partner in RU as long as they choose to let this drag out.  UKR has a huge cache of essential goods.  You can't wall that off.

I think Putin wins.  It's far more costly than he imagined, but he wins this.  EU capitulates.  

 
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For us maroons, what is the actual end goal here.... Have Ukraine be part of Russia?


Trying to avoid anything political in this thread, I think the goal from Russia's perspective is to halt eastward NATO expansion and have a more secure buffer between Russia and its perceived enemies.

 
For the military history geeks, the School of War podcast is excellent, and they just had a podcast about the Ukraine situation.  It included some interesting discussion of Russian troop deployments and Russia's initial invasion strategy.

 
I think this is true.  I think as long as Putin doesn't escalate much further, he's at least obtained Crimea and the Donbas for Russia.  He is walking a fine line, though, because the international community will punish Russia for this mess and give it all back to Ukraine if there is any EU or NATO involvement.

I starting to think we will have a long drawn out process over the next 10-20 months.  A lot depends on if Ukraine can hold Kyiv and keep Zelenskyy alive or at least maintain a semblance of governance and organized military.  I believe the latter will be achieved because of all of the international assistance, even if they have to relocate to Lviv.
Putin will take all of the land up to the dneiper river and the entire coast. At a minimum. 

 
For us maroons, what is the actual end goal here.... Have Ukraine be part of Russia?
I'm a marrone too, but I'm convinced here that all Russian actions begin and end with the fact that Putin and his cronies are robbing the Russian citizenry blind, and their overarching goal is to prevent the majority of Russins from making this connection.  That's why Putin murders adversaries - journalists, politicians, and key government figures; and it's why his goons clamp down on protests with extreme predjudice. It's why they lean heavily on propaganda and controlling access to media sources.

Neighboring prosperity represents an existential threat to the kleptocracy, especially Ukraine because it cannot be hidden from Russian citizens. To avoid problems, enact a simple doctrine: Take over bordering countries and obstruct the Russian view of prosperity.  In other words, the masses will remain docile if they see that their neighbors like Belarus and Ukraine live out the same ####ty existence. 

If Ukraine falls, I think Putin will set his sites on Estonia and Latvia.  I know they are NATO members and maybe Putin does not resort to military action in these nations, but I'm sure that there are a thousand ways to be disruptive.  If I'm Finland, I'm highly concerned. All the Finlandian sniper heroics aside, if Putin can take Ukraine, he can take Finland.

 
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I'm a marrone too, but I'm convinced here that all Russian actions begin and end with the fact that Putin and his cronies are robbing the Russian citizenry blind, and their overarching goal is to prevent the majority of Russins from making this connection.  That's why Putin murders adversaries - journalists, politicians, and key government figures; and it's why his goons clamp down on protests with extreme predjudice. It's why they lean heavily on propaganda and controlling access to media sources.

Neighboring prosperity represents an existential threat to the kleptocracy, especially Ukraine because it cannot be hidden from Russian citizens. To avoid problems, enact a simple doctrine: Take over bordering countries and obstruct the Russian view of prosperity.  In other words, the masses will remain docile if they see that their neighbors like Belarus and Ukraine live out the same ####ty existence. 

If Ukraine falls, I think Putin will set his sites on Estonia and Latvia.  I know they are NATO members and maybe Putin does not resort to military action in these nations, but I'm sure that there are a thousand ways to be disruptive.  If I'm Finland, I'm highly concerned. All the Finlandian sniper heroics aside, if Putin can take Ukraine, he can take Finland.
Same as it ever was. Russians have been getting the shaft from their ruling class for 100’s of years. 

 
It is amazing how many still do not believe what he has said previously....wait until nukes are planted on the Bulgaria and Polish borders.  Wait until he puts his army on the borders of the Baltic States to invade.  We have to start thinking about his long term goals and how to deal with them, because Putin holding the rest of the world hostage by threatening a nuclear strike will allow him to continue to conquest other free countries.  The whole thing is a mess, but we need to readjust our mindset moving forward.
I agree with this.  Fortunately, we are better placed now to deal with those threats than we were a few weeks ago.  We can put troops in the Baltic states and Poland.  We should do that now -- doing so represents a credible commitment on our part to respond to an attack on those countries as if they were an attack on the US.  We didn't have that commitment in Ukraine (obviously).

I'd also be up for having that discussion with Finland and Sweden, although TBH my attitude toward neutral countries is similar to that of my insurance agent when I call to inquire about purchasing fire insurance after my house has already caught on fire.  

 
So it is becoming more obvious to me that Russia is really overrated at war.
Their massive army of tanks and planes seems to have largely been on paper only. With Putin and everyone below him down to lowly NOCs pilfering military funds for decades, you end up with dilapidated equipment like we’re seeing. Those 500 MIGs? Yeah they have 500. Mostly disassembled for parts in warehouses.

 
Their massive army of tanks and planes seems to have largely been on paper only. With Putin and everyone below him down to lowly NOCs pilfering military funds for decades, you end up with dilapidated equipment like we’re seeing. Those 500 MIGs? Yeah they have 500. Mostly disassembled for parts in warehouses.
That sounds like a problem to fix before you turn the entire planet against you by invading a neighbor in a lunatic attempt to bring back a failed communist experiment, only to see your country collapse around you as the world cuts you off from almost all outside money. I really don’t feel bad for Putin in the slightest, because he made this mess, and now he’s watching everything he has crumble around him.

 
It's time to stop buying oil and gas from Russia.  If we truly want to send a message to Putin that's the best way to do it.  The country will be bankrupt in months and he'll have no way to pay for his troops in Ukraine.  US citizens will complain of course but I'd rather that than US boots on the ground in Ukraine.

We just finally got out of our foreign conflicts. 

 
It's time to stop buying oil and gas from Russia.  If we truly want to send a message to Putin that's the best way to do it.  The country will be bankrupt in months and he'll have no way to pay for his troops in Ukraine.  US citizens will complain of course but I'd rather that than US boots on the ground in Ukraine.

We just finally got out of our foreign conflicts. 
I agree, but I thought I saw someone post that in terms of oil, only like 2% of our consumption is of Russian origin. I could easily be wrong, and I’d like to know if someone knows more about it than I do, but yes, we need to completely cut Russia off.

 
I agree, but I thought I saw someone post that in terms of oil, only like 2% of our consumption is of Russian origin. I could easily be wrong, and I’d like to know if someone knows more about it than I do, but yes, we need to completely cut Russia off.
I read yesterday that we send Putin between $55 to $78 Million $ a day in purchasing oil (adjust by the cost of a barrel of oil world wide).  They is probably just 2-3% of our consumption but it is still a lot of money.

 
I read yesterday that we send Putin between $55 to $78 Million $ a day in purchasing oil (adjust by the cost of a barrel of oil world wide).  They is probably just 2-3% of our consumption but it is still a lot of money.
Thanks, now if they cut that off, it might get this done slightly faster. I know governments blow through money like it’s going out of style, but every little bit helps.

 
culdeus said:
They put forward and lost a ton of aircraft the last 24 hrs.  That dude got freaking rekt though. What a shot.  
Can you even imagine the satisfaction felt by the guy who shot that? Simply incredible.

 
Is it true that Brittany Griner is being held prisoner in Russia on “drug trafficking” charges based on hashish oil being found in her luggage??  Sounds like a hostage situation. 

 

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