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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (4 Viewers)

JaxBill said:
Yes, that looter suppression was against regs...but compared to what these guys are seeing, it's trifling.

Warning ⚠️  picture is unpleasant 

@MFA_Ukraine: Almost all horses were burnt alive in a stable in #Hostomel, as #Russian invaders burned it down. Only few of them escaped.

#StopRussianAggression https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1506171851571023873/photo/1
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The Russians are murdering civilians every day. It’s ridiculous. Yesterday they opened up on unarmed protesters. Not a day goes by without them shelling apartments and hospitals of no military value.

All of which has absolutely nothing to do with Ukrainians violating the Geneva conventions. Infuriating but it’s not a sliding scale, and you don’t get match war crime for war crime.

Had our Ukrainian neighbors over for lunch today. 3.5M refugees, probably half of those are children. Hope it ends soon.

 
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BobbyLayne said:
The Russians are murdering civilians every day. It’s ridiculous. Yesterday they opened up on unarmed protesters. Not a day goes by without them shelling apartments and hospitals of no military value.

All of which has absolutely nothing to do with Ukrainians violating the Geneva conventions. Infuriating but it’s not a sliding scale, and you don’t get match war crime for war crime.

Had our Ukrainian neighbors over for lunch today. 3.5M refugees, probably half of those are children. Hope it ends soon.
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Ukraine was invaded by a hostile power, and frankly is within their rights to defend their homes by any means necessary. Also, that video is purportedly of a looter, not a hostile soldier. As such, they aren’t bound by the Conventions to treat a looter humanely, and even if this were a Russian soldier, that’s bad, and Ukraine should answer for it, after Russia gets put through the wringer for all of the everything they did up to and including the invasion of sovereign Ukrainian territory.

 
snellman said:
A journalists take from Mariupol
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It cannot be overstated how utterly ####ed up this situation is. In todays day and age, that this bull#### is happening, it’s sickening.  It’s maddening to me, to watch the wanton disregard for human life, all at the whim of Putin.  mostly, it makes me really sad.  
 

my mother said something poignant yesterday.  She said that the US has been here before. FDR had to sit and watch as hitler invaded Poland and branched out from there. The US was Unable/unwilling to engage, but had to watch the suffering of millions.  just like today.  It’s Unreal that this crap is repeating itself.  🥺😢😭

 
DA RAIDERS said:
It cannot be overstated how utterly ####ed up this situation is. In todays day and age, that this bull#### is happening, it’s sickening.  It’s maddening to me, to watch the wanton disregard for human life, all at the whim of Putin.  mostly, it makes me really sad.  
 

my mother said something poignant yesterday.  She said that the US has been here before. FDR had to sit and watch as hitler invaded Poland and branched out from there. The US was Unable/unwilling to engage, but had to watch the suffering of millions.  just like today.  It’s Unreal that this crap is repeating itself.  🥺😢😭
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Hitler looked competent enough to win is a big difference. 

 
@KyivIndependent: ⚡️ Russia uses white phosphorus bombs in Hostomel and Irpin.

Russian forces targeted Kyiv’ suburbs with phosphorus bombs on the night of March 22, according to Irpin Mayor Oleksandr Markushin. 

The use of such weapons against civilians is banned by the Geneva Conventions.

 
JaxBill said:
@KyivIndependent: ⚡️ Russia uses white phosphorus bombs in Hostomel and Irpin.

Russian forces targeted Kyiv’ suburbs with phosphorus bombs on the night of March 22, according to Irpin Mayor Oleksandr Markushin. 

The use of such weapons against civilians is banned by the Geneva Conventions.
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I guess Putin decided “If we’re going to break one of the laws in the Convention, may as well break them all.” 
 

 
Wouldn't it be more effective to declare sanctions to be in effect against the Putin regime instead of Russia? There needs to be a carrot for regime change from within. Just blanketing these sanctions on Russia seems like it would work to help Russian citizens to coalesce around Putin.

 
DA RAIDERS said:
It cannot be overstated how utterly ####ed up this situation is. In todays day and age, that this bull#### is happening, it’s sickening.  It’s maddening to me, to watch the wanton disregard for human life, all at the whim of Putin.  mostly, it makes me really sad.  
 

my mother said something poignant yesterday.  She said that the US has been here before. FDR had to sit and watch as hitler invaded Poland and branched out from there. The US was Unable/unwilling to engage, but had to watch the suffering of millions.  just like today.  It’s Unreal that this crap is repeating itself.  🥺😢😭
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 so what's your solution?

 
ericttspikes said:
Wouldn't it be more effective to declare sanctions to be in effect against the Putin regime instead of Russia? There needs to be a carrot for regime change from within. Just blanketing these sanctions on Russia seems like it would work to help Russian citizens to coalesce around Putin.
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Doubtful. Given that Putin’s regime is literally a Kleptocracy, they’d siphon off and steal as much as they wanted anyway. 

 
ericttspikes said:
Wouldn't it be more effective to declare sanctions to be in effect against the Putin regime instead of Russia? There needs to be a carrot for regime change from within. Just blanketing these sanctions on Russia seems like it would work to help Russian citizens to coalesce around Putin.
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I'd imagine that plenty of high-ranking Russians know that the sanctions will be significantly reduced if Putin is removed and they pull out of Ukraine

 
Jobber said:
Doubtful. Given that Putin’s regime is literally a Kleptocracy, they’d siphon off and steal as much as they wanted anyway. 
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The Panama papers more or less laid out how they use shell companies to buy everything.  One of the key Putin people spent like 50M in NYC over the weekend buying art, real estate, and cars using shell companies created that allows more or less money laundering.  

It's the pain brought on the plebs that should be working, but it isn't for reasons I don't think many get.

 
ericttspikes said:
Wouldn't it be more effective to declare sanctions to be in effect against the Putin regime instead of Russia? There needs to be a carrot for regime change from within. Just blanketing these sanctions on Russia seems like it would work to help Russian citizens to coalesce around Putin.
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Here in the USA, when things go badly financially, do we really around the leader, or do we blame the administration?

We blame the administration. 

 
massraider said:
Here in the USA, when things go badly financially, do we really around the leader, or do we blame the administration?

We blame the administration. 
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It's guess it's different in that the media is controlled by Putin. Russia is currently using the "illegal Western sanctions" as justification for war and escalation. Russian news shows are telling their audience that the West's sanctions are the cause of their economic problems and that they are an act of war.

I guess they'd probably say that even if the West pointed out that the sanctions are because of the actions of the Putin regime, but all the headlines I read are about sanctions levied on Russia, not Putin per se. State TV amplifies that and uses it to convince the populace that "the West declared war on Russia". I just think using the correct language removes some of that ambiguity. The sanctions are because of Putin's decisions. 

 
DA RAIDERS said:
Me?  I don’t have one.  How about you?  What’s your solution?
Click to expand...


sounds like you did - you don't think this says we shouldn't "stand by" again? 

my mother said something poignant yesterday.  She said that the US has been here before. FDR had to sit and watch as hitler invaded Poland and branched out from there. The US was Unable/unwilling to engage, but had to watch the suffering of millions.  just like today.  It’s Unreal that this crap is repeating itself.

 
ericttspikes said:
It's guess it's different in that the media is controlled by Putin. Russia is currently using the "illegal Western sanctions" as justification for war and escalation. Russian news shows are telling their audience that the West's sanctions are the cause of their economic problems and that they are an act of war.

I guess they'd probably say that even if the West pointed out that the sanctions are because of the actions of the Putin regime, but all the headlines I read are about sanctions levied on Russia, not Putin per se. State TV amplifies that and uses it to convince the populace that "the West declared war on Russia". I just think using the correct language removes some of that ambiguity. The sanctions are because of Putin's decisions. 
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There are sanctions against the oligrachs, the state of Russia, and the Duma, and the member of the military leadership. Now, state TV can continue to say that this is all because of the West, but it's not like state TV was saying we can be trusted before. Now there is nothing left but state TV. That fact alone should make any reasonable person's spidey sense tingle. Russia removes all vestiges of independent journalism, Instagram, and Facebook. Any Russians not suspicious of that, their mind was made up long before any sanctions. 

The reason Russians support him so much is that only the old, gullible and stupid are left. Any Russian with a brain has been evacuating that country for 30 years.

We aren't losing any battle for hearts and mind with sanctions. That battle is lost. There will be no overthrow by the people, no Russian Spring. it will come from his own inner circle, and they will set up their own corrupt government, and they will be happy to not invade other countries, and quietly steal from the people. 

 
ericttspikes said:
It's guess it's different in that the media is controlled by Putin. Russia is currently using the "illegal Western sanctions" as justification for war and escalation. Russian news shows are telling their audience that the West's sanctions are the cause of their economic problems and that they are an act of war.

I guess they'd probably say that even if the West pointed out that the sanctions are because of the actions of the Putin regime, but all the headlines I read are about sanctions levied on Russia, not Putin per se. State TV amplifies that and uses it to convince the populace that "the West declared war on Russia". I just think using the correct language removes some of that ambiguity. The sanctions are because of Putin's decisions. 
Click to expand...


Semantics in this case are important, in the US you see people putting "I did that" stickers on gas pumps, when people don't actually see that the US is a net exporter of oil and energy and macroeconomics is hard. Same level of misinformation can work on them as well.  Heck, maybe with the same sticker, lol.  

 
Binky The Doormat said:
sounds like you did - you don't think this says we shouldn't "stand by" again? 

my mother said something poignant yesterday.  She said that the US has been here before. FDR had to sit and watch as hitler invaded Poland and branched out from there. The US was Unable/unwilling to engage, but had to watch the suffering of millions.  just like today.  It’s Unreal that this crap is repeating itself.
Click to expand...


I mean the US didn't really get in the war until we caught cables from Hitler trying to talk Mexico into invading us.  That, apparently was the final sombrero.  

 
culdeus said:
I mean the US didn't really get in the war until we caught cables from Hitler trying to talk Mexico into invading us.  That, apparently was the final sombrero.  
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yes, other reasons finally drew us into war - I reacted to the original post lamenting our standing on the sidelines

I don't want to send my kid off to war.

 
JaxBill said:
@natemook: This is the amazing team at @WCKitchen partner Alaska restaurant in Kyiv! Every day they are cooking 1,500 meals for refugees coming from from besieged nearby cities Bucha and Irpin, as well as Ohmatdyt Children’s Hospital. We now have 84 kitchens active in Kyiv. #ChefsForUkraine https://twitter.com/natemook/status/1506620578320596993/photo/1
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Gotta feed the Farmers Army so they can keep swiping tanks and trucks, which is still my favorite part of this.

 
Ukrainians blew up a troop landing ship overnight (their daytime), hitting it with ballistic missiles fire likely by shore based Navy personnel. I wanted to see what class ship it was, and God bless Wiki, the entry for that specific ship says "burning after an explosion in the port of Berdyansk." It happened like 3-4 hours ago lol.

It was an Alligator-class LST, capable of carrying 400 personnel and 20 tanks plus other armored vehicles.

The professional soldiers in the officer corps must be so embarrassed at their performance so far. Not to glorify the military - we all want to see this conflict end ASAP, and war always sucks, especially for the displaced civilians - but just from a pride standpoint their piss poor performance has got to piss off everyone in the Russian armed forces. But this is a direct result of the kleptocracy and half-assing their way through training.

________________

There's a guy on Twitter (Trent Telenko) you can find by googling twitter: ukrainian truck guy. He's put up some fantastic long threads over the last month. He's demonstrated the Russian army cannot support their army logistically more than 140 miles (200 km) from a railhead. That's why they keep switching from offensive to defensive tactics. Over and over he's shown poor design choices (wood bed frames instead of steel), truck breakdowns that are a direct result of poor maintenance or terrible quality - thanks to the oligarchs in defense contracting who are too greedy to worry about manufacturing tolerances.

for example Russian admission against interest (Russia is more worried about Ukrainian logistics than their own capabilities, and logistically, they won't be capturing the Donbas region anytime soon.

Here's the thing: Trent Telenko is not some expert on CNN or Fox news. Just a guy on twitter who likes to blog about American history (specifically, SIGINT during WWII - yeah, total geek in a very narrow niche.) He's retired DoD and did vehicle maintenance when he was active duty. He hasn't done this stuff in like 15 years. The U.S. military churns out hundreds if not thousands of Trent Telenko's every decade.

_______________

Our military knows you fight like you drill - and we take exercises very seriously (Russians are notoriously sloppy and disorganized when they do joint exercises with other nations.)

Russia launched an invasion on six axis points which are not mutually supportive. Horrendous plan - they would have been much better served with a concentrated tip of the spear operational plan. But they thought this was going to be a cakewalk.

 
@TrentTelenko: If it isn't true, it ought to be: 

“Ukrainian military intelligence reported that Russian forces are preparing to block the Kerch Bridge to prevent Russians from leaving Crimea.[16] The GUR claims that this measure is a response to panic among Russians in Crimea, 

1/

@TrentTelenko: ...particularly those who moved to the peninsula after 2014, especially among the families of Russian military and government personnel. We have no independent verification of these GUR reports.” 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-23
2/End

 
JaxBill said:
@TrentTelenko: If it isn't true, it ought to be: 

“Ukrainian military intelligence reported that Russian forces are preparing to block the Kerch Bridge to prevent Russians from leaving Crimea.[16] The GUR claims that this measure is a response to panic among Russians in Crimea, 

1/

@TrentTelenko: ...particularly those who moved to the peninsula after 2014, especially among the families of Russian military and government personnel. We have no independent verification of these GUR reports.” 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-23
2/End
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So the mission that Putin thought would take 3 days is now dragging into its second month, has turned the vast majority of the planet against them to the point that they have almost no foreign money coming in, and the military they used is so poorly equipped that they’ve lost somewhere around 15,000 soldiers to what everybody thought was a seriously inferior force. They have soldiers deserting, surrendering, dying of frostbite in mid March, and they are now getting pushed back by the home squad, which if this is true, is going so badly for them that they are possibly trying to force their own citizens to stay on occupied Ukrainian territory to avoid losing it outright. I don’t think I’ve ever heard of a military campaign so grossly mismanaged by a supposedly superior force, at any point in history. Napoleon and Hitler tried invading Russia in winter, but this is the onset of spring, and they have so completely screwed this up that I’m legitimately baffled by how bad it got so quickly.

 
Kal El said:
So the mission that Putin thought would take 3 days is now dragging into its second month, has turned the vast majority of the planet against them to the point that they have almost no foreign money coming in, and the military they used is so poorly equipped that they’ve lost somewhere around 15,000 soldiers to what everybody thought was a seriously inferior force. They have soldiers deserting, surrendering, dying of frostbite in mid March, and they are now getting pushed back by the home squad, which if this is true, is going so badly for them that they are possibly trying to force their own citizens to stay on occupied Ukrainian territory to avoid losing it outright. I don’t think I’ve ever heard of a military campaign so grossly mismanaged by a supposedly superior force, at any point in history. Napoleon and Hitler tried invading Russia in winter, but this is the onset of spring, and they have so completely screwed this up that I’m legitimately baffled by how bad it got so quickly.
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Dieppe Raid comes to mind

Napoleon (June 24th) and Hitler (June 22nd) both invaded at the beginning of summer. Both thought it would all be over before winter. Oopsie.

But you’re on point - Vlad the jailer botched this pretty badly.

___________________

The Allies won WWII in large part because of logistics (Ike was masterful at this aspect.) America’s manufacturing capacity played a huge role as well, but they had  their hands full in both theaters. Without careful planning - including a healthy respect for their foes capabilities right up until unconditional surrender - it could have easily ended two or three years later.

Before WWII, England and France repeatedly ceded territory to the Third Reich. There is every reason to believe Putin had designs on other former Soviet states once he brought Ukraine “back into the fold.”. You cannot negotiate with expansionist dictators. They must be stopped.

This conflict won’t end like that war. I’m still not sure where Putin’s exit is here. He’s painted himself into a corner.

Russian history doesn’t offer much hope for him - every leader of the Soviet Union or Russia in the last 120 years ended up dead or marginalized to persona non grata at the end of their reign.

 
BobbyLayne said:
The Allies won WWII in large part because of logistics (Ike was masterful at this aspect.) America’s manufacturing capacity played a huge role as well, but they had  their hands full in both theaters. Without careful planning - including a healthy respect for their foes capabilities right up until unconditional surrender - it could have easily ended two or three years later.
Click to expand...


To give you the amount of planning the Allies took in the invasion, here's another historical tidbit from a Trent Telenko thread-

They had planned in advance that soon after they moved inland from Normandy,  that they would mine gravel from gravel pits to fix roads damaged from shelling.

 
While 99% of the world including me is on the side of Ukraine, as a person that reads a ton of world history I would encourage everyone to simply look at maps of the history of that part of the world.  Many of the cities in modern day Ukraine were part of the Rus Khangate.  In fact, parts of Ukraine were basically the heart of Russia 1500 years ago.   So much like Israel, Taiwan and many many other places, it's not so simple.

That being said, the USSR for lack of a better word 'created' modern day Ukraine.  And at that point this should have been over.  If every country went and took back what they owned at one point, the world would be in a huge mess.

Putin wants to leave his mark by bringing former territories with cultural ties back into the Russian fold.  Territories he feels slipping towards Western ideals.  He's already got Belarus.  And I'm not sure he stops at Ukraine no matter how long this takes.

He is going to have to pitch this as a victory to his people, and right now he can't.  So this is going to go on and on until he can declare some sort of victory.  And I don't think the people of Ukraine nor any other country are willing to let him claim victory in any way.

It's just a sad situation created by a somewhat madman wanting to make a mark knowing he is closer and closer to the end of his own life.  The kind of stuff from the middle ages that really shouldn't happen in the connected world we have today.

 
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Brunell4MVP said:
Putin wants to leave his mark by bringing former territories with cultural ties back into the Russian fold.  Territories he feels slipping towards Western ideals.  He's already got Belarus.  
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It will be interesting to see if the puppet in Belarus is still in power in the next couple months. They have already documented demonstrations and intentional railway sabotage.

 
JaxBill said:
To give you the amount of planning the Allies took in the invasion, here's another historical tidbit from a Trent Telenko thread-

They had planned in advance that soon after they moved inland from Normandy,  that they would mine gravel from gravel pits to fix roads damaged from shelling.
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Careful, that account is a pretty deep rabbit hole lol 

 
Binky The Doormat said:
sounds like you did - you don't think this says we shouldn't "stand by" again? 

my mother said something poignant yesterday.  She said that the US has been here before. FDR had to sit and watch as hitler invaded Poland and branched out from there. The US was Unable/unwilling to engage, but had to watch the suffering of millions.  just like today.  It’s Unreal that this crap is repeating itself.
Click to expand...
Nope.  There is nothing in there about what I think. It’s a simple statement of fact. The US has been here before. That’s all.  And it sucks. 

 
culdeus said:
The Panama papers more or less laid out how they use shell companies to buy everything.  One of the key Putin people spent like 50M in NYC over the weekend buying art, real estate, and cars using shell companies created that allows more or less money laundering.  

It's the pain brought on the plebs that should be working, but it isn't for reasons I don't think many get.
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He's using the ACCOUNTANT.  Maybe out of this we'll finally get the 2nd installment of that film.

 
massraider said:
The reason Russians support him so much is that only the old, gullible and stupid are left. Any Russian with a brain has been evacuating that country for 30 years.

We aren't losing any battle for hearts and mind with sanctions. That battle is lost. There will be no overthrow by the people, no Russian Spring. it will come from his own inner circle, and they will set up their own corrupt government, and they will be happy to not invade other countries, and quietly steal from the people.
Click to expand...
The bolded is the most depressing and accurate thing I have read on this sub-subject thus far. It was like the Green Spring in Iran where they shot, killed, or jailed all the dissidents brave enough or smart enough to stand up to the clerics. That was 2008 and revolution was in the air. Sadly, they read their Machiavelli and crushed it, like the Chinese did in Tiananeman Square. 

There are lessons to be learned about that about human fear, yearning, and bravery and cowardice, and I'm afraid the lessons are not good ones.

Somebody lauding either of the two situations listed above as smart or efficacious ought be held up to public scrutiny and disqualified in the minds of Westerners as fit for office, if not tarred and feathered once he or she gets there, if you know what I'm putting down here, massraider. Let's look homeward, angel. 

The latter paragraph also strikes me as correct. 

 
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Tom Servo said:
The Gallipoli Campaign was another colossal screw up in planning.
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Good one - though of course huge contrast between bewildered Russian conscripts walking off the job VS. the exemplary valor of the Allied Powers. Nearly ruined Churchill, though.

Thinking about the enormous legacy of Gallipoli - comparable to Belleau Wood or sands of Iwo Jima for the USMC. It is difficult for Americans to understand how big of a deal ANZAC Day is for Aussies & New Zeelanders. Sort of their collective baptism of fire as sovereign nations.

Maybe one day Ukraine will have a similar commemoration for what we are watching daily.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Amateur hour

That Russian troop landing ship they blew up last night? They “found it” by watching state TV in Moscow. One if their reporters did a lengthy feature on the supplies being brought in, with footage from the dock, on deck, et al.

Pretty much gave them the exact pier/wharf.

:lol:
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That’s absolutely hilarious, what kind of airheads do they have running that military? 

 
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