*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (6 Viewers)

[The Kerminator]

US Intelligence role in the Ukraine conflict

Much larger role than I had expected, although I knew we were playing a big role. I have no doubts that we have CIA ops in Ukraine helping and very likely in Russia as well regarding some of these accidental fires recently.

And it's the first I heard of a Russian troop transport plane being shot down.

 

[Kal El]

US Intelligence role in the Ukraine conflict

Much larger role than I had expected, although I knew we were playing a big role. I have no doubts that we have CIA ops in Ukraine helping and very likely in Russia as well regarding some of these accidental fires recently.

And it's the first I heard of a Russian troop transport plane being shot down.

I remember hearing about it when it happened, but I haven’t heard of Russia sending any more over there, at least recently.

Honestly, with the spy tech that the US has, we could legitimately show the commanders where everyone is, and figure out the best way to beat them and get them out of Ukraine(side note, is anyone else still struggling with not calling them “the Ukraine?” I know it’s just Ukraine, but my brain keeps making the leap from how we refer to “the US,” and it’s trying to do it with Ukraine, too)

 

[DA RAIDERS]

I remember hearing about it when it happened, but I haven’t heard of Russia sending any more over there, at least recently.

Honestly, with the spy tech that the US has, we could legitimately show the commanders where everyone is, and figure out the best way to beat them and get them out of Ukraine(side note, is anyone else still struggling with not calling them “the Ukraine?” I know it’s just Ukraine, but my brain keeps making the leap from how we refer to “the US,” and it’s trying to do it with Ukraine, too)

nope.  it's ukraine.  same as France, england, china, etc. the "the" denotes that it is part of something else.  or is made of  different countries.  the united kingdom.  the Hi islands.  the republic of georgia(another USSR "state".  now known as georgia).  the falkland islands.  the azores.  etc.

i've been drinking.     

 

[The Kerminator]

nope.  it's ukraine.  same as France, england, china, etc. the "the" denotes that it is part of something else.  or is made of  different countries.  the united kingdom.  the Hi islands.  the republic of georgia(another USSR "state".  now known as georgia).  the falkland islands.  the azores.  etc.

i've been drinking.     

or made of different states, as in THE United States of America

 

[DA RAIDERS]

or made of different states, as in THE United States of America

you're agreeing with me.  the united states OF america.  parts of a whole.

 

[JaxBill]

@KyivIndependent: ️Ammunition depot in Belgorod, Russia catches fire. 

Governor of Belgorod Oblast Vyacheslav Gladkov reported early on April 27 that an ammunition depot was on fire near the village of Staraya Nelidovka, less than 20 miles from the Ukrainian border.

 

[Kal El]

@KyivIndependent: ️Ammunition depot in Belgorod, Russia catches fire. 

Governor of Belgorod Oblast Vyacheslav Gladkov reported early on April 27 that an ammunition depot was on fire near the village of Staraya Nelidovka, less than 20 miles from the Ukrainian border.

Oh no! Anyway, I wonder if Russia has any more ammo depots in the area, so Ukraine can knock those out, too.

 

[beer 30]

Oh no! Anyway, I wonder if Russia has any more ammo depots in the area, so Ukraine can knock those out, too.

Tula ammo still coming into the US for us gun nuts. Guessing Russia will be ok, especially when the restrictions here kick in.

 

[JaxBill]

Missile packaging thread from Trent

 

[Tom Servo]

How to lose nations and alienate people by Vladimir Putin.

 

[Kal El]

How to lose nations and alienate people by Vladimir Putin.

Yeah, the abusive spouse angle pretty much nails it. Ukraine has had to deal with empires and invaders for centuries, and now that they have freedom, they’re going to fight hard to keep it, and we, as freedom loving people, should help them repel their invaders.

 

[bagger]

So for the $33B package for Ukraine are we just buying the country which means Russia couldn’t attack it since it is US soil?

 

[Kal El]

So for the $33B package for Ukraine are we just buying the country which means Russia couldn’t attack it since it is US soil?

I think we’re seeing firsthand that nobody owns Ukraine but the Ukrainians.

 

[Dezbelief]

Another reason to love China 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/28/world/ukraine-russia-war-news.amp.html

China suspends import tariffs on coal, helping Russian exports. 

The Chinese government will suspend its tariff on imported coal starting on Sunday, a decision that will likely benefit Russia at a time when its coal exports to Europe are being phased out over its invasion of Ukraine.

The tariff suspension will eliminate the tariff from Sunday until March 31 next year, when it will be reconsidered.

 

[beer 30]

So for the $33B package for Ukraine are we just buying the country which means Russia couldn’t attack it since it is US soil?

Add in the previous assistance packages and it's closer to $50 billion since the war began. Couple of $800 million packages then a $14 billion package, smattering of smaller $200 million, $350 million packages and it all adds up to just under $50b.

Might as well plant the flag because guess what? After this is all done, who you think is gonna kick in to rebuild Ukraine?

Aid to Ukraine - old but you get the idea. I don't think the ratio has changed demonstrably since other than the US extending that bar on top.

 

[Jobber]

I just saw the most amazing footage on Reddit. A Ukrainian drone dropping a grenade through the sunroof of a moving vehicle with 4 Russians inside. An absolutely god tier drone operator, for sure. Wow.

 

[beer 30]

I just saw the most amazing footage on Reddit. A Ukrainian drone dropping a grenade through the sunroof of a moving vehicle with 4 Russians inside. An absolutely god tier drone operator, for sure. Wow.

Drones actually scare the living #### out of me in the next major confrontation. Not sure how you defend against them.

 

[Fat Nick]

Drones actually scare the living #### out of me in the next major confrontation. Not sure how you defend against them.

They way they are being used, and how cost effective they seem to be, really does seem to change the economics of war.  I'm sure a drone that can drop a grenade isn't as cheap as a DJI Mavic, but when you figure one can destroy an APC or something worth 20x more, it seems like it's a real table turner.  As some of the footage showed, it makes trench fortifications almost pointless for infantry too.  

 

[Dezbelief]

Drones actually scare the living #### out of me in the next major confrontation. Not sure how you defend against them

Jamming, electromagnetic pulses or in the future drone vs drone dogfights.

 

[beer 30]

Jamming, electromagnetic pulses or in the future drone vs drone dogfights.

FLIR's Black Hornet

Don't tell me we, along with every other major player, haven't weaponized these. That's what scares me. Send up a thousand of those against a couple platoons and game over.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

So for the $33B package for Ukraine are we just buying the country which means Russia couldn’t attack it since it is US soil?

Add in the previous assistance packages and it's closer to $50 billion since the war began. Couple of $800 million packages then a $14 billion package, smattering of smaller $200 million, $350 million packages and it all adds up to just under $50b.

Might as well plant the flag because guess what? After this is all done, who you think is gonna kick in to rebuild Ukraine?

Aid to Ukraine - old but you get the idea. I don't think the ratio has changed demonstrably since other than the US extending that bar on top.

Seems very little separates this from a formal declaration of war by the US against Russia other than actual US troops on the ground and our planes in the air. 
 

 

[culdeus]

I just saw the most amazing footage on Reddit. A Ukrainian drone dropping a grenade through the sunroof of a moving vehicle with 4 Russians inside. An absolutely god tier drone operator, for sure. Wow.

L

FLIR's Black Hornet

Don't tell me we, along with every other major player, haven't weaponized these. That's what scares me. Send up a thousand of those against a couple platoons and game over.

I want to use these hog hunting. 

 

[Chaos Commish]

  https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1520142879825575937

The British Ministry of Defense has reportedly seen indications that Russian President Putin is preparing a Statement for May 9th during the Victory Parade in Moscow, which its expected a General Mobilization and a Declaration of War against Ukraine will be declared.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Can Western Tanks, Artillery, And Missiles Save Ukraine? Don’t Count On It.

It's a tough read that goes to why I have such a grim view of this war. I recommend the comments for some harsh rebuttals and various pro and anti-US thinking. I lean towards the information in the article. I'm also convinced the "western narrative" has been sadly incomplete. 

 

[Tom Servo]

  https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1520142879825575937

It’s hard to tell the difference between this police action/subjugation/invasion and a declared war.

 

[Chaos Commish]

A few days ago RUSI (Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies) released a deep dive into this war. It's 19 pages, a very sober look at current reality and near future possibilities. It's full of intel to which the sources must remain secret. 

I don't think it's grim enough, but at least it debunks much of the western narrative.

In conclusion:

Finally, the Russian decision to double down is a high-stakes gamble. If Russia mobilises and eventually overcomes Ukrainian resistance then NATO will face an aggressive, isolated and militarised state. If Russia loses then President Putin has now begun radicalising the population in the pursuit of policies that he will struggle to deliver. Failure to defeat the Ukrainian state after relentlessly comparing it to the Nazi regime may have serious consequences for Putin and those around him. To frame a conflict as existential and to lose must necessarily call the suitability of a leader into question among Russia’s political elites. NATO states therefore need to consider how to manage escalation pathways that follow if Russia is not only defeated in Donbas but finds its newly mobilised and poorly trained troops, with few remaining stocks of precision munitions, unable to deliver a victory in the summer. The death of Putin’s political project is plausible, but it has already inflicted immense damage internationally and risks doing considerably more.

It’s hard to tell the difference between this police action/subjugation/invasion and a declared war.

The difference is the military resources available to Putin. Launching a "special military operation" isn't just some words. It is legally defined in Russian law. It limits what is and isn't available to Putin. It also limits protests. Had he announced a General Mobilization and declard war on Feb. 24, he would have met with massive resistance. By May 9th, thanks to the state of Russian media, the Russian public will be begging him to declare war and crush "the" Ukraine. Many already are. One talking head was cheered for claiming Putin has no choice but to use nukes. A Russian pop song about nuking DC has gone viral. 

 

[Kal El]

A few days ago RUSI (Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies) released a deep dive into this war. It's 19 pages, a very sober look at current reality and near future possibilities. It's full of intel to which the sources must remain secret. 

I don't think it's grim enough, but at least it debunks much of the western narrative.

In conclusion:

The difference is the military resources available to Putin. Launching a "special military operation" isn't just some words. It is legally defined in Russian law. It limits what is and isn't available to Putin. It also limits protests. Had he announced a General Mobilization and declard war on Feb. 24, he would have met with massive resistance. By May 9th, thanks to the state of Russian media, the Russian public will be begging him to declare war and crush "the" Ukraine. Many already are. One talking head was cheered for claiming Putin has no choice but to use nukes. A Russian pop song about nuking DC has gone viral. 

If he’s struggling to field any sort of actual army now, and said army was already in poor condition before the sanctions hit, he’s not going to have a good time when the other conscripts start dying en masse. Literally the only thing the Russians have going for them are numbers, which mean next to nothing if they can’t keep supplies moving, which we’ve seen is a huge problem for them. Ukraine is going to have its hands full, but if Vlad is telegraphing planned moves over a week out, then his security detail is pretty awful at maintaining security.

 

[Tom Servo]

Do Russian nukes even work?

Trent makes an excellent point that an infowar against the oligarchs regarding their nukes (using valid data) could sow seeds of doubt. 

 

[Chaos Commish]

1.  If he’s struggling to field any sort of actual army now, and said army was already in poor condition before the sanctions hit, he’s not going to have a good time when the other conscripts start dying en masse.

2.  Literally the only thing the Russians have going for them are numbers, which mean next to nothing if they can’t keep supplies moving, which we’ve seen is a huge problem for them.

3.  Ukraine is going to have its hands full, but if Vlad is telegraphing planned moves over a week out, then his security detail is pretty awful at maintaining security.

1.  Both sides are struggling to field an army atm. Ukraine made it illegal to report troop and equipment losses, but plenty of analysis suggests their losses are worse. The troop #s will forever be hidden in the civilian count. Russian conscripts have been dying en masse and the Russian people are so pissed they want more more more.

2. Not only is Russia doing a better job moving supplies, they are, as reported in my links, stockpiling for a major summer offensive. This "huge problem" you discuss was only in the north where they failed. In the east and south they have nearly accomplished Putin's stated objectives of Feb 24. They have solid control of Donbas land double the size of Crimea and nominal control of more about the size of Crimea. They are advancing in more areas than they are being pushed back, though most of it is a stalemate atm.

3. Let's not criticize Putin's security rather than praise our spooks (maybe Britain's more than ours). I'm proud of the intelligence community and loving the transparency that keeps telling Putin we are on his phones. haha. He needs to switch to burners like the low life he is. One thing I believe about this osint transparency is that it's provided strategically and just the tip of the iceberg. 

 

[Chaos Commish]

 Ukraine made it illegal to report troop and equipment losses, but plenty of analysis suggests their losses are worse. The troop #s will forever be hidden in the civilian count.

https://twitter.com/Taurevanime/status/1520174439320756227

The amount of videos/pictures of dead ukrainian soldiers has increased dramatically in the past 2 weeks, I refuse to post them and you‘ll eventually find them in other channels but the amount is just ugh.

I can also confirm this. You gotta do your own digging, but I've seen mass graves of Ukrainian troops accompanied by tik tok cries for back up, ammo, supplies... "we are entrenched immobile and bombarded, soon to be surrounded. F Zelensky! Help us!"

 

[Chaos Commish]

I also think the troop morale story has flipped. In the north where Russia failed the morale was abysmal, no doubt. But in the Donbas Russian morale seems almost festive. They are itching for a fight. While Ukrainians don't seem demoralized, just very desperate.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Example

Ukrainian Presidential advisor Arestovych: "A great many soldiers, let's say, the particularly hesitant ones, have begun to overload their families with messages like 'it's over'. ... For those who are despondent, I want to show the example of our defenders of Mariupol."

What a great example. The defenders of Mariupol are all dead or holed up starving in that steel plant. They have no way out. They have hostages who are starving too. These hostages were offerred a safe way out and the Ukrainian soldiers keeping them said no. This is the example Arestovych gives his demoralized troops?

 

[Jobber]

Today’s been a good day for videos. First, the sunroof grenade drop, and then the Russian soldier bragging while live streaming on TikTok gets blown apart by a mortar.

Wow, I love Fridays.

 

[Tom Servo]

Today’s been a good day for videos. First, the sunroof grenade drop, and then the Russian soldier bragging while live streaming on TikTok gets blown apart by a mortar.

Wow, I love Fridays.

You have a link for those? I’ll take a PM if you don’t want to post ‘em here. 

 

[Jaysus]

I'm also convinced the "western narrative" has been sadly incomplete. 

I'ma but obtuse, what's the Cliff's Notes version of the western narrative?

 

[culdeus]

You have a link for those? I’ll take a PM if you don’t want to post ‘em here. 

R/combatfootage has a lot of videos like that.  

 

[beer 30]

The zeal some have for seeing the death of another human being is troubling sometimes.

Here’s one for you I didn’t see posted, Ghost of Kyiv died in battle last month.

 

[Tom Servo]

The zeal some have for seeing the death of another human being is troubling sometimes.

Here’s one for you I didn’t see posted, Ghost of Kyiv died in battle last month.

The Ghost of Kyiv shirt in the article is pretty badass.

 

[JaxBill]

@PeterZeihan: Russia media is now <<bragging>> about "filtration" camps. Not like the Nazi's death camps, but used as a sorting system to purge potential militants while settling the rest (esp kids) throughout Russia to destroy any Ukrainian cultural identity. https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/status/1520213048149123072

 

[culdeus]

@PeterZeihan: Russia media is now <<bragging>> about "filtration" camps. Not like the Nazi's death camps, but used as a sorting system to purge potential militants while settling the rest (esp kids) throughout Russia to destroy any Ukrainian cultural identity. https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/status/1520213048149123072

But I thought their culture was already matched.  Did Putin lie?

 

[JaxBill]

The zeal some have for seeing the death of another human being is troubling sometimes.

Here’s one for you I didn’t see posted, Ghost of Kyiv died in battle last month.

I thought the Ghost of Kyiv was Urban Legend/myth/propaganda 

 

[culdeus]

I thought the Ghost of Kyiv was Urban Legend/myth/propaganda 

Depends on what corner of the internet you live in.   Most likely it's a Jesus type narrative blending stories from several pilots and some IFF issues together.  

 

[JaxBill]

UK Ministry of Defence

@DefenceHQ: (1/3) Russia hopes to rectify issues that have previously constrained its invasion by geographically concentrating combat power, shortening supply lines and simplifying command and control.

@DefenceHQ: (2/3) Russia still faces considerable challenges. It has been forced to merge and redeploy depleted and disparate units from the failed advances in north-east Ukraine. Many of these units are likely suffering from weakened morale.

@DefenceHQ: (3/3) Shortcomings in Russian tactical co-ordination remain. A lack of unit-level skills and inconsistent air support have left Russia unable to fully leverage its combat mass, despite localised improvements.

 

[JaxBill]

Russian generals under pressure to produce results before May 9th Victory Parade.  Next week could be eventful.

 

[JaxBill]

A few days ago RUSI (Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies) released a deep dive into this war. It's 19 pages, a very sober look at current reality and near future possibilities. It's full of intel to which the sources must remain secret. 

I don't think it's grim enough, but at least it debunks much of the western narrative.

In conclusion:

The difference is the military resources available to Putin. Launching a "special military operation" isn't just some words. It is legally defined in Russian law. It limits what is and isn't available to Putin. It also limits protests. Had he announced a General Mobilization and declard war on Feb. 24, he would have met with massive resistance. By May 9th, thanks to the state of Russian media, the Russian public will be begging him to declare war and crush "the" Ukraine. Many already are. One talking head was cheered for claiming Putin has no choice but to use nukes. A Russian pop song about nuking DC has gone viral. 

@sentdefender: The British Ministry of Defense has reportedly seen indications that Russian President Putin is preparing a Statement for May 9th during the Victory Parade in Moscow, which its expected a General Mobilization and a Declaration of War against Ukraine will be declared. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1520142879825575937/photo/1

 

[Tom Servo]

The zeal some have for seeing the death of another human being is troubling sometimes.

Here’s one for you I didn’t see posted, Ghost of Kyiv died in battle last month.

Many of us grew up during the Vietnam War, where we saw shirtless Army soldiers firing behind sandbags with reporters just feet away filing their reports.  As a kid, there was something about that made me curious about those who would fight and die.  Later on, the 1st Gulf War peeled back more of the curtain as to what happens in war.

Now, this war is videotaped by everybody with a smart phone/web cam'/whatever.  The war can be experienced as never before.  Far be it from me to have a zeal to see someone die, the footage I see continually reminds me of a quote attributed to Robert E. Lee: It is well that war is so terrible – otherwise we would grow too fond of it.

 

[JaxBill]

Many of us grew up during the Vietnam War, where we saw shirtless Army soldiers firing behind sandbags with reporters just feet away filing their reports.  As a kid, there was something about that made me curious about those who would fight and die.  Later on, the 1st Gulf War peeled back more of the curtain as to what happens in war.

Now, this war is videotaped by everybody with a smart phone/web cam'/whatever.  The war can be experienced as never before.  

@dpatrikarakos: "Chechen soldiers? Ha We call them TikTok soldiers. They're always filming. We found one who was wounded and trying not to fight but take a selfie."

"Their job is not to fight but to shoot Russian boy conscripts who don't want to fight. It's Soviet tactics. https://twitter.com/dpatrikarakos/status/1519287026977320960/photo/1

 

[Kal El]

@PeterZeihan: Russia media is now <<bragging>> about "filtration" camps. Not like the Nazi's death camps, but used as a sorting system to purge potential militants while settling the rest (esp kids) throughout Russia to destroy any Ukrainian cultural identity. https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/status/1520213048149123072

I hope that backfires spectacularly on Russia, like everything else they’re trying to do to Ukrainians.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I'ma but obtuse, what's the Cliff's Notes version of the western narrative?

Well, simply the stories that get and don't get traction in our mainstream media. The gist filters down to indy and social media. I am suggesting what we get is sadly incomplete (depending on how deep you dig). It seems we get a carefully chosen sample of the story.

For many weeks there was an emphasis on three things. Russia's failure in the north, Russia's atrocities, and Russia's malfunctioning, kleptocratically marginalized military losing. The first two true and the narrative fine though the failure to take Kyiv allowed for Russian success elsewhere. To me these emphases are less than half the story. Add the generally accepted lie that the whole world (or 90% of the world) is against Russia and the western narrative becomes not just incomplete but kinda false. 

To defend that I would have to go big time tl/dr with the story I feel isn't being told. I am not up for that, but I will continue to follow along and highlight this thinking when appropriate. I wish I had been doing that all along. My point would be clear.

Right now I am beffuddled by the attacks on Moldova/Transnistria. The western narrative is calling it a Russian false flag. The 19 page report I linked said as much adding Moldova was clearly "next" for Russia. Both militaries are stretched thin to the point of breaking. Seems crazy to drag Moldova into this now. 

Seems Ukraine was behind it. 

The two most powerful AM transmitters in Europe were in Transnistria, and Russia was using them to cover Ukraine with Russian propaganda. Ujtol today. Apparently this morning someone bombed out these two transmitter sites, with no casualties.

 

[Tom Servo]

What’s wrong with Russia’s military?

I’m not really buying the idea that the western narrative of this is wrong. Maybe parts of it - like the  superiority of Russian forces - but as of now, Russia would have trouble beating Larry Storch and F Troop.