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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (8 Viewers)

The question is.... was the Soviet Red Army ever an equal to us or was it just as inept and broken as today's Russian military. 
I think that’s a complicated question, but IIRC Soviet military spending was exponentially higher than what Russia spends today. So they might not have been masters of logistics, but I’m not sure much about the current Russian military bears a ton of similarity to what fighting the USSR would have been like during the Cold War. 

 
thecatch said:
I think that’s a complicated question, but IIRC Soviet military spending was exponentially higher than what Russia spends today. So they might not have been masters of logistics, but I’m not sure much about the current Russian military bears a ton of similarity to what fighting the USSR would have been like during the Cold War. 
Probably like facing an intelligent zombie  horde, really. They just threw enough soldiers into the fight to overwhelm their enemy. Their military death totals make up almost half of all military deaths in WWII, and that’s counting both sides. They almost doubled the death count of Germany, who actually lost the war.

 
Probably like facing an intelligent zombie  horde, really. They just threw enough soldiers into the fight to overwhelm their enemy. Their military death totals make up almost half of all military deaths in WWII, and that’s counting both sides. They almost doubled the death count of Germany, who actually lost the war.
Good lord, just looked it up, upper end an estimated 27 million soviet soldiers and civilians killed during WWII. 

😪

 
thread roll up of Trent Telenko 22 message TweetStorm

first 4:

It is too early for a real "lessons learned," but this latest Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown a lot of things which impact the modeling & design of post-WW2 mechanized combat wargames, thread🧵

The three things that have jumped out for me are the following: 
1/

1. The complete lack of mechanized logistics in the Russian Army 
2. The horrible vulnerability of Russian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles compared to equivalent Western vehicles
3. The arrival of small drones in the artillery spotting role as armored vehicle killers 
2/

...in the 21st century.

The Russian Army's complete lack of forklifts, pallets, and containerized logistics is an 80 odd year, class based, complete miss by Western intelligence that impacts the designs of all Cold War era war games because of the mirror imaging of Western 
3/

...mechanized logistics upon all the Soviet invasion of Europe war games.

They are all wrong because they greatly overestimate the ability of the Russian Army to move the tonnages of artillery ammunition built into the combat ratings of Soviet/Russian Army units. You 
4/

...would need some sort of logistical modifier of every Soviet & Russian combat unit in every military scenario to reflect this.

18 more where that came from (click link above)

 
thread roll up of Trent Telenko 22 message TweetStorm

first 4:

It is too early for a real "lessons learned," but this latest Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown a lot of things which impact the modeling & design of post-WW2 mechanized combat wargames, thread🧵

The three things that have jumped out for me are the following: 
1/

1. The complete lack of mechanized logistics in the Russian Army 
2. The horrible vulnerability of Russian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles compared to equivalent Western vehicles
3. The arrival of small drones in the artillery spotting role as armored vehicle killers 
2/

...in the 21st century.

The Russian Army's complete lack of forklifts, pallets, and containerized logistics is an 80 odd year, class based, complete miss by Western intelligence that impacts the designs of all Cold War era war games because of the mirror imaging of Western 
3/

...mechanized logistics upon all the Soviet invasion of Europe war games.

They are all wrong because they greatly overestimate the ability of the Russian Army to move the tonnages of artillery ammunition built into the combat ratings of Soviet/Russian Army units. You 
4/

...would need some sort of logistical modifier of every Soviet & Russian combat unit in every military scenario to reflect this.

18 more where that came from (click link above)
Meanwhile, we’re doing complex ballistics analysis with near instant computations for trajectories, velocity,  and expected distance….at baseball games.

 
Kal El said:
3 days, huh Vlad? You thought you were going to just waltz in and take over Ukraine in 3 days. It’s now Day 69(nice), and your army is getting crushed by a numerically inferior foe, and it’s happening for all the world to see.
At least to start the war, it was also technologically inferior as well since the vast majority of it's equipment was Soviet era and the Russians having same but more advanced/modern. 

Now the Ukrainians are being handed numerous weapon systems in increasing numbers, variance, capability and heaviness. 

The Russians have wisely tried to limit the logistical burden and focus their attacks after a foolish and overly ambitious three pronged effort. However, their combat effectiveness is increasingly deteriorating. 

I wonder what the end game can be for Russia. 

Taiwan should be paying careful attention and invest in their military accordingly. MANPADS seem to be the biggest bang for buck. 

Hopefully Ukraines stand will keep China from ever getting too aggressive with Taiwan.

 
Thankfully they had supply issues, too
There were plenty of mistakes made but if Hitler didn't get side tracked with Stalingrad, the logistical issues were not insurmountable. The logistics became a big issue in the winter and devastating when Army Group B was cut off and encircled. 

 
@RALee85: Nothing significant in Putin's speech today, but he will need to make a decision regarding mobilization in the coming weeks. Russia committed 80% of its BTGs to this war and it lacks sufficient ground units with contract soldiers for a sustainable rotation.

 
@AP: Vladimir Putin used Victory Day in Russia to justify his war in Ukraine but did not declare even a limited victory or give a signal where the conflict is headed. President Zelenskyy told his war-ravaged nation, that it will soon have another Victory Day. http://apne.ws/IBfZzVe

 
Been watching a lot of the videos on these switchblade drones.  Those things are bananas.  They can basically be loaded with a grid and they call back what they see for artillery to fire upon then pick a target to bomb when out of fuel.  Can also paint targets for guided munitions.

 
@AP: Vladimir Putin used Victory Day in Russia to justify his war in Ukraine but did not declare even a limited victory or give a signal where the conflict is headed. President Zelenskyy told his war-ravaged nation, that it will soon have another Victory Day. http://apne.ws/IBfZzVe
The only “victory” Russia might have is if they get the majority of their soldiers back alive.

 
(CNN)President Joe Biden recently told his top national security officials that leaks about US intelligence sharing with Ukrainians aren't helpful and need to stop, according to an official familiar with the conversation.

Last week, after the White House denied providing direct intelligence to Ukrainians "with the intent to kill Russian generals," Biden spoke separately with Defense Secretary Austin, CIA Director Burns and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines. He told them that it was not helpful for information to become public about what the U.S. was sharing with the Ukrainian forces fighting the Russian invasion, an official said, and stressed that the leaks regarding such information must stop.

 
(CNN)President Joe Biden recently told his top national security officials that leaks about US intelligence sharing with Ukrainians aren't helpful and need to stop, according to an official familiar with the conversation.

Last week, after the White House denied providing direct intelligence to Ukrainians "with the intent to kill Russian generals," Biden spoke separately with Defense Secretary Austin, CIA Director Burns and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines. He told them that it was not helpful for information to become public about what the U.S. was sharing with the Ukrainian forces fighting the Russian invasion, an official said, and stressed that the leaks regarding such information must stop.


so who leaked Bidens comments to CNN?

 
Loooong Trent thread on UA Artillery and Starlink.
Read first post and tapped out. I'm sick of this attention seeker bagging on western intel ad nauseum. It's his shtick, I get it. He wants to seem smarter than the thousands working together in the intelligence community. He hasn't the access to make his insulting claims. Demeaning western intel from what you find available online is silly and gullible. That's akin to thinking the tip of the iceberg is the whole hunk of ice. Sorry for rant.

 
@RALee85: Nothing significant in Putin's speech today, but he will need to make a decision regarding mobilization in the coming weeks. Russia committed 80% of its BTGs to this war and it lacks sufficient ground units with contract soldiers for a sustainable rotation.
A whole lot of build up for an anti climatic nothing for the Victory Day parade. 

I remember seeing the number at 65% previously from the Brits but I am sure both are educated guesses. The report from the Brits also said about a quarter of those BTG's were now combat ineffective. 

 
A whole lot of build up for an anti climatic nothing for the Victory Day parade. 

I remember seeing the number at 65% previously from the Brits but I am sure both are educated guesses. The report from the Brits also said about a quarter of those BTG's were now combat ineffective. 


Feel like this is CIV where you have a bunch of equipment way over on the map that would take like 8 turns to make it over, while the rest of the world has you on -99 diplomacy and your economy is tanking so you can't rush it.  

 
(CNN)President Joe Biden recently told his top national security officials that leaks about US intelligence sharing with Ukrainians aren't helpful and need to stop, according to an official familiar with the conversation.

Last week, after the White House denied providing direct intelligence to Ukrainians "with the intent to kill Russian generals," Biden spoke separately with Defense Secretary Austin, CIA Director Burns and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines. He told them that it was not helpful for information to become public about what the U.S. was sharing with the Ukrainian forces fighting the Russian invasion, an official said, and stressed that the leaks regarding such information must stop.
They shouldn’t have been needed to be told this 

 
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Feel like this is CIV where you have a bunch of equipment way over on the map that would take like 8 turns to make it over, while the rest of the world has you on -99 diplomacy and your economy is tanking so you can't rush it.  
You have put yourself in more than your fair share of Putin positions in CIV huh?

 
Read first post and tapped out. I'm sick of this attention seeker bagging on western intel ad nauseum. It's his shtick, I get it. He wants to seem smarter than the thousands working together in the intelligence community. He hasn't the access to make his insulting claims. Demeaning western intel from what you find available online is silly and gullible. That's akin to thinking the tip of the iceberg is the whole hunk of ice. Sorry for rant.
That's a shame because parts of the thread were very interesting. 

Key points-

-Ukraine has lots of talented GIS software engineers

-UA uses unique artillery software that combines GIS data with the Starlink communications capabilities. 

-Instead of one UA artillery battery firing multiple rounds at a target, the target info is sent to multiple UA artillery batteries (in range) who fire off small number of rounds.

-Result is Russian radar sees projectiles from multiple places and trajectories and has problem pinpointing source.

 
BobbyLayne said:
yeah, that was a dumb move by a Ukrainian reporter in Poland. First I laughed, but when I read further, Ukrainians and Poles alike were very disappointed this happened. Not a good image. Diplomacy is needed to save tens of thousands, maybe 100s of thousands of lives. Throwing strawberry juice on a diplomat is too childish, great propaganda for Russia and bla bla bla...

 
I would hope that even marketers have some sort of scruples, but I suppose not.
free markets, freedom of speech, it's our way and the best way. i listen to russian media every day. it's the best way (for me) to understand the russian people and maybe understand the war better. it's part of why i see the western narrative as so incomplete. 

russian state media is... oooff... far far more sophisticated and thorough than it is described by the west. if it was just lame propaganda it wouldn't be effective. what scares me about how good they are at it is the growing part of the world buying it. i am still grim about where this is headed.

oh, i also have video calls with russians on a regular basis. they aren't feeling sanctions at all nor do they lack access to global news. there's two in my crypto group. another is in smallish town on the romanian ukrainian border. great guy giving up his life to help refugees this past month. 

 
i posted a western mainstream media site claiming putin had scheduled surgery for stomach cancer. someone here pointed out all the rumors were stemming from a single reddit source. so i deferred to that, but more chemo follows cancer surgery than precedes it, so maybe he already had the surgery. who knows, but he looks puffy for days, then he looks normal again. that is how my mom was.

 
Unsure of the veracity of this thread but it's an interesting read from a supposed UA bridge engineer.

Pictures from the area indicate a large number of vehicles desyroyed at the failed bridge crossing.

 
Unsure of the veracity of this thread but it's an interesting read from a supposed UA bridge engineer.

Pictures from the area indicate a large number of vehicles desyroyed at the failed bridge crossing.


I've seen that on Reddit. Say 32 armored vehicles down in that.  Many Russians tried to swim back and couldn't make it.  Bodies everywhere

 
I've seen that on Reddit. Say 32 armored vehicles down in that.  Many Russians tried to swim back and couldn't make it.  Bodies everywhere
@UAWeapons: #Ukraine: Russian forces sustained remarkable losses from the failed bridging attempt over the Siverskyi Donets River. 

We count 6x T-72B-series MBT, 14x BMP-1/2 variants, 7x MT-LB, a tugboat & 5+ other armoured vehicles destroyed/abandoned/damaged. Note precise ID is very hard. https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1523752742820343808 https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524413089579511808/photo/1

 
Unsure of the veracity of this thread but it's an interesting read from a supposed UA bridge engineer.

Pictures from the area indicate a large number of vehicles desyroyed at the failed bridge crossing.
This the "I am best engineer" thread? Read it this morning. I had some doubts about the author but it seems pretty obvious the outcome was pretty devastating regardless of how it actually went down.

The pundits who preached Russia's early losses would subside as they learned more and adjusted their approach and then roll over the resistance have been completely wrong. They've learned nothing and seem to be getting worse at playing war. This is Vlad's undoing and the end of Russia as we know it for decades.

 

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