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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (1 Viewer)

At some point our experts in this part of the world have to sit down and figure out what is a win for both sides and start there. We align with NATO on this. The Prez then has a little heart to heart with Zelensky and tells him what's up. Then Zelensky talks to Vlad and they work out the details ignore all the noise and realize this nightmare they are in has to end. Allow some country like Japan to appear to be the peacemaker if needed.

There has to be some resolution that can be figured out, neither side will be happy but Russia needs to know we will do this forever and Zelensky needs to know we are keeping his country alive.


The problem is the world knows Putin/Russia lack character and will never keep up their end of the bargain, so any "agreement" is purely cosmetic and temporary.

That it and of itself is severely diminishing anyone's urges to come to the negotiating table.
The Russian army has been exposed as a fraud so the amount of "hand" they have in this situation has taken a dramatic hit from what it was when this began. It took some big balls to get there -- political capital by US leaders, significant funding, resolve by NATO, blood by people of Ukraine. But now it seems we have reached a stalemate. There has to be an end and US and NATO hold the cards to a great extent. Attempts to end this need to be made via pressure by us / NATO, will undoubtedly be a mess.
 
But now it seems we have reached a stalemate. There has to be an end and US and NATO hold the cards to a great extent. Attempts to end this need to be made via pressure by us / NATO, will undoubtedly be a mess.
Not even close. (1) Russia’s been trying to knock out Ukraine electricity infrastructure to make winter unbearable — now that this is (thus far), not happening due to the supposed unseasonable warmth….we go to stage 2/3. Stage 2 is how the respected armed forces fare against each other come the spring. Stage 3 is where, instead of Russia going after electrical infrastructure, (a) Russia goes after agricultural infrastructure (b) Ukraine negatively affects Crimea’s ability to feed themselves. I don’t know where you got the idea that this is a perennial stalemate or that either party (Russia) will actually agree to a resolution…. but (imho) that ain’t happening’. This war is more likely to go on for years versus external powers putting a stop to it.
 
The Russian army has been exposed as a fraud so the amount of "hand" they have in this situation has taken a dramatic hit from what it was when this began. It took some big balls to get there -- political capital by US leaders, significant funding, resolve by NATO, blood by people of Ukraine. But now it seems we have reached a stalemate. There has to be an end and US and NATO hold the cards to a great extent. Attempts to end this need to be made via pressure by us / NATO, will undoubtedly be a mess.
Outside of the human cost, and from a geopolitical perspective only, the longer this war goes on in its current state, the more costly it is to Russia. The US/NATO countries can continue to supply the Ukraine for much longer than Russia can afford to lose money and weapons. As long as China stays out of it, the Nuclear option is not used, and the US does not get a leader that sympathizes with Russia, the worse off it is for Russia. Cracks will eventually start to show in their population as they realize this is a never-ending war that they cannot win.
 
But now it seems we have reached a stalemate. There has to be an end and US and NATO hold the cards to a great extent. Attempts to end this need to be made via pressure by us / NATO, will undoubtedly be a mess.
Not even close. (1) Russia’s been trying to knock out Ukraine electricity infrastructure to make winter unbearable — now that this is (thus far), not happening due to the supposed unseasonable warmth….we go to stage 2/3. Stage 2 is how the respected armed forces fare against each other come the spring. Stage 3 is where, instead of Russia going after electrical infrastructure, (a) Russia goes after agricultural infrastructure (b) Ukraine negatively affects Crimea’s ability to feed themselves. I don’t know where you got the idea that this is a perennial stalemate or that either party (Russia) will actually agree to a resolution…. but (imho) that ain’t happening’. This war is more likely to go on for years versus external powers putting a stop to it.
Isn't a war that could go on for years a stalemate?

We will not allow Russia to win, at least for next couple years. Their initial gains have been cut in half or so, no? Ukraine's existence depends on them not quitting so I don't see them losing any will. If both sides would rather run face first into a knife then I suppose they can have at it.
 
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The Russian army has been exposed as a fraud so the amount of "hand" they have in this situation has taken a dramatic hit from what it was when this began. It took some big balls to get there -- political capital by US leaders, significant funding, resolve by NATO, blood by people of Ukraine. But now it seems we have reached a stalemate. There has to be an end and US and NATO hold the cards to a great extent. Attempts to end this need to be made via pressure by us / NATO, will undoubtedly be a mess.
Outside of the human cost, and from a geopolitical perspective only, the longer this war goes on in its current state, the more costly it is to Russia. The US/NATO countries can continue to supply the Ukraine for much longer than Russia can afford to lose money and weapons. As long as China stays out of it, the Nuclear option is not used, and the US does not get a leader that sympathizes with Russia, the worse off it is for Russia. Cracks will eventually start to show in their population as they realize this is a never-ending war that they cannot win.
This is what it seems like to me.
 
Anyone who's silly enough to think that Ruzzia will be satisfied, long term, with just keeping Donbas....
Why are we at war today when we "let them keep" Crimea after the last invasion?

Any negotiation/treaty is printed on tissue paper in a rainy climate.
If this is the case we either supply Ukraine equipment indefinitely and at some point one of the sides runs out of will or people.
 
Anyone who's silly enough to think that Ruzzia will be satisfied, long term, with just keeping Donbas....
Why are we at war today when we "let them keep" Crimea after the last invasion?

Any negotiation/treaty is printed on tissue paper in a rainy climate.
Putin certainly would not... this entire war is another piece of him trying to rebuild the Soviet or Tsarist Empires. When Putin dies... this may or may not continue depending on what happens with the power transfer.
 
So if we just allow Poland the Donbas region to be absorbed into Germany Russia, then the invading country will stop and be appeased?
Involvement in the Spanish Civil War... Remilitarize the Rhineland... Annex Austria...

South Ossetian War... Russo-Georgian War... Annexation of Crimea... Dobus War...

I mean... there are a lot of parallels. Tyrannical Autocrats that have made no secret to their ambition for greater glory to their nations tend to test the waters with smaller aggressions and when they get away with it they continue to push the lines. Much like a young child seeing how much they can get away with before they get in trouble.
 
So what is the argument for not giving Ukraine everything they ask for?
I don't really agree with 1 and 2, but the arguments would be...

We bleed Russia into catastrophic irrelevance the longer it goes on.
It's expensive.
The faster we ramp up the more likely it is we draw China into the conflict. Boil the frog instead.
 
So what is the argument for not giving Ukraine everything they ask for?
Risk of giving Ukraine truly offensive weapons (like advanced multi-role fighters) could allow them to strike deep into Russia, which I think would escalate the war and put unnecessary risk on it spreading. I agree that Ukraine should continue to bleed Russia (no doubt they are bleeding too).
 
So what is the argument for not giving Ukraine everything they ask for?
I don't really agree with 1 and 2, but the arguments would be...

We bleed Russia into catastrophic irrelevance the longer it goes on.
It's expensive.
The faster we ramp up the more likely it is we draw China into the conflict. Boil the frog instead.
What does china gain here? They are rapidly greening their energy system to become more independent. I don't think the answer is carbon fuel.

Seems like brinkmanship to de escalate after the balloon stuff. Jmo.
 
Anyone who's silly enough to think that Ruzzia will be satisfied, long term, with just keeping Donbas....
Why are we at war today when we "let them keep" Crimea after the last invasion?

Any negotiation/treaty is printed on tissue paper in a rainy climate.
If this is the case we either supply Ukraine equipment indefinitely and at some point one of the sides runs out of will or people.
Yes. This.

Or someone in Russia has had enough, and poisons Putin, or he dies.

There is no negotiating. Russia will not abide by any concessions on their part. They simply won't. Leadership has ZERO morals or honor.
 
I don't think China has much more interest in Ukraine other than being a PIA to NATO countries as is their SOP and drawing Russia closer as an ally for it's own interests. They have pretty much done this so far by playing on the fence of giving non-lethal support, not opposing/condemning Russia but then also talking about peace.
 
🔥 GLSDB HAS ENTERED THE CHAT 🔥

Oh damn.... this is going to be big. Looks like something else was tucked away on Rail Force One. 👀

Russia's forward supply lines / bases are either packing up and running backward, or they're getting vaporized. Zaporizhzhia front just completely shifted.

Infighting with Wagner diminishing impact of their most effective force to date.

Supply lines were challenged, now they're going to be a nightmare.

And we've got advanced armor coming in hot. Meaning the front lines who were getting chewed up due to lack of training and equipment... and now they'll be dramatically more outgunned, AND more poorly supplied.

Russia is in serious trouble.

Honestly I REALLY hope our read on the Kremlin is good, because between Biden's visit, the battlefield losses due to our supplies, and the increasing internal pressure... we just shoved Putin into that corner we were a little worried about.

Hoping China's visit to Russia will not bear weaponized fruit. They'd have to REALLY think this is their window on us to send weapons... because that will likely tip off a much larger string of dominos. 👀
 
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REPORT:

Apparently it's not just Wagner.

Russian ammunition and artillery stockpiles are critically low, with horrible quality mutintions now being sent... many of which are unusable due to decades of poor storage conditions:


This may explain Putin panhandling to NK and now China for munitions.

Meanwhile US is now considering releasing intel showing China is considering sending military aid to Russia.

Significant aid from a modern military power would be one of a couple things that could change the current trend of Russia losing hand
 
I feel silly for thinking Russia has been a near peer power. The only thing that makes them a near peer is their nuclear stockpile.
And willingness to sacrifice an unlimited number of lives of their own citizens.
That has been true of Russia since there has been a Russia.
Unlimited human sacrifice and their decaying nuclear stockpile is all they have left.
 
So we just announced more sanctions. What I don't get isn't why are we doing this now. I thought we were going full tilt on sanctions already.
 
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