The Z Machine
Footballguy
So if we just allow Poland the Donbas region to be absorbed into Germany Russia, then the invading country will stop and be appeased?
The Russian army has been exposed as a fraud so the amount of "hand" they have in this situation has taken a dramatic hit from what it was when this began. It took some big balls to get there -- political capital by US leaders, significant funding, resolve by NATO, blood by people of Ukraine. But now it seems we have reached a stalemate. There has to be an end and US and NATO hold the cards to a great extent. Attempts to end this need to be made via pressure by us / NATO, will undoubtedly be a mess.At some point our experts in this part of the world have to sit down and figure out what is a win for both sides and start there. We align with NATO on this. The Prez then has a little heart to heart with Zelensky and tells him what's up. Then Zelensky talks to Vlad and they work out the details ignore all the noise and realize this nightmare they are in has to end. Allow some country like Japan to appear to be the peacemaker if needed.
There has to be some resolution that can be figured out, neither side will be happy but Russia needs to know we will do this forever and Zelensky needs to know we are keeping his country alive.
The problem is the world knows Putin/Russia lack character and will never keep up their end of the bargain, so any "agreement" is purely cosmetic and temporary.
That it and of itself is severely diminishing anyone's urges to come to the negotiating table.
Not even close. (1) Russia’s been trying to knock out Ukraine electricity infrastructure to make winter unbearable — now that this is (thus far), not happening due to the supposed unseasonable warmth….we go to stage 2/3. Stage 2 is how the respected armed forces fare against each other come the spring. Stage 3 is where, instead of Russia going after electrical infrastructure, (a) Russia goes after agricultural infrastructure (b) Ukraine negatively affects Crimea’s ability to feed themselves. I don’t know where you got the idea that this is a perennial stalemate or that either party (Russia) will actually agree to a resolution…. but (imho) that ain’t happening’. This war is more likely to go on for years versus external powers putting a stop to it.But now it seems we have reached a stalemate. There has to be an end and US and NATO hold the cards to a great extent. Attempts to end this need to be made via pressure by us / NATO, will undoubtedly be a mess.
Outside of the human cost, and from a geopolitical perspective only, the longer this war goes on in its current state, the more costly it is to Russia. The US/NATO countries can continue to supply the Ukraine for much longer than Russia can afford to lose money and weapons. As long as China stays out of it, the Nuclear option is not used, and the US does not get a leader that sympathizes with Russia, the worse off it is for Russia. Cracks will eventually start to show in their population as they realize this is a never-ending war that they cannot win.The Russian army has been exposed as a fraud so the amount of "hand" they have in this situation has taken a dramatic hit from what it was when this began. It took some big balls to get there -- political capital by US leaders, significant funding, resolve by NATO, blood by people of Ukraine. But now it seems we have reached a stalemate. There has to be an end and US and NATO hold the cards to a great extent. Attempts to end this need to be made via pressure by us / NATO, will undoubtedly be a mess.
Isn't a war that could go on for years a stalemate?Not even close. (1) Russia’s been trying to knock out Ukraine electricity infrastructure to make winter unbearable — now that this is (thus far), not happening due to the supposed unseasonable warmth….we go to stage 2/3. Stage 2 is how the respected armed forces fare against each other come the spring. Stage 3 is where, instead of Russia going after electrical infrastructure, (a) Russia goes after agricultural infrastructure (b) Ukraine negatively affects Crimea’s ability to feed themselves. I don’t know where you got the idea that this is a perennial stalemate or that either party (Russia) will actually agree to a resolution…. but (imho) that ain’t happening’. This war is more likely to go on for years versus external powers putting a stop to it.But now it seems we have reached a stalemate. There has to be an end and US and NATO hold the cards to a great extent. Attempts to end this need to be made via pressure by us / NATO, will undoubtedly be a mess.
This is what it seems like to me.Outside of the human cost, and from a geopolitical perspective only, the longer this war goes on in its current state, the more costly it is to Russia. The US/NATO countries can continue to supply the Ukraine for much longer than Russia can afford to lose money and weapons. As long as China stays out of it, the Nuclear option is not used, and the US does not get a leader that sympathizes with Russia, the worse off it is for Russia. Cracks will eventually start to show in their population as they realize this is a never-ending war that they cannot win.The Russian army has been exposed as a fraud so the amount of "hand" they have in this situation has taken a dramatic hit from what it was when this began. It took some big balls to get there -- political capital by US leaders, significant funding, resolve by NATO, blood by people of Ukraine. But now it seems we have reached a stalemate. There has to be an end and US and NATO hold the cards to a great extent. Attempts to end this need to be made via pressure by us / NATO, will undoubtedly be a mess.
If this is the case we either supply Ukraine equipment indefinitely and at some point one of the sides runs out of will or people.Anyone who's silly enough to think that Ruzzia will be satisfied, long term, with just keeping Donbas....
Why are we at war today when we "let them keep" Crimea after the last invasion?
Any negotiation/treaty is printed on tissue paper in a rainy climate.
Putin certainly would not... this entire war is another piece of him trying to rebuild the Soviet or Tsarist Empires. When Putin dies... this may or may not continue depending on what happens with the power transfer.Anyone who's silly enough to think that Ruzzia will be satisfied, long term, with just keeping Donbas....
Why are we at war today when we "let them keep" Crimea after the last invasion?
Any negotiation/treaty is printed on tissue paper in a rainy climate.
I dunno. We already let them get intoSo if we just allowPolandthe Donbas region to be absorbed intoGermanyRussia, then the invading country will stop and be appeased?
Involvement in the Spanish Civil War... Remilitarize the Rhineland... Annex Austria...So if we just allowPolandthe Donbas region to be absorbed intoGermanyRussia, then the invading country will stop and be appeased?
I don't really agree with 1 and 2, but the arguments would be...So what is the argument for not giving Ukraine everything they ask for?
Risk of giving Ukraine truly offensive weapons (like advanced multi-role fighters) could allow them to strike deep into Russia, which I think would escalate the war and put unnecessary risk on it spreading. I agree that Ukraine should continue to bleed Russia (no doubt they are bleeding too).So what is the argument for not giving Ukraine everything they ask for?
What does china gain here? They are rapidly greening their energy system to become more independent. I don't think the answer is carbon fuel.I don't really agree with 1 and 2, but the arguments would be...So what is the argument for not giving Ukraine everything they ask for?
We bleed Russia into catastrophic irrelevance the longer it goes on.
It's expensive.
The faster we ramp up the more likely it is we draw China into the conflict. Boil the frog instead.
Yes. This.If this is the case we either supply Ukraine equipment indefinitely and at some point one of the sides runs out of will or people.Anyone who's silly enough to think that Ruzzia will be satisfied, long term, with just keeping Donbas....
Why are we at war today when we "let them keep" Crimea after the last invasion?
Any negotiation/treaty is printed on tissue paper in a rainy climate.
There is not one that is legit. Gutless leaders who missed out on world history is the actual reason.So what is the argument for not giving Ukraine everything they ask for?
wonderful readLong article explaining how Russia's early 35-mile-long convoy to overrun Kiev failed.
My god, they're stupid.
I feel silly for thinking Russia has been a near peer power. The only thing that makes them a near peer is their nuclear stockpile.Long article explaining how Russia's early 35-mile-long convoy to overrun Kiev failed.
My god, they're stupid.
And willingness to sacrifice an unlimited number of lives of their own citizens.I feel silly for thinking Russia has been a near peer power. The only thing that makes them a near peer is their nuclear stockpile.Long article explaining how Russia's early 35-mile-long convoy to overrun Kiev failed.
My god, they're stupid.
That has been true of Russia since there has been a Russia.And willingness to sacrifice an unlimited number of lives of their own citizens.I feel silly for thinking Russia has been a near peer power. The only thing that makes them a near peer is their nuclear stockpile.Long article explaining how Russia's early 35-mile-long convoy to overrun Kiev failed.
My god, they're stupid.
Knowing China the peace plan is for China just to take over Ukraine.China to propose a peace plan to UN Security Council tomorrow?
Unlimited human sacrifice and their decaying nuclear stockpile is all they have left.That has been true of Russia since there has been a Russia.And willingness to sacrifice an unlimited number of lives of their own citizens.I feel silly for thinking Russia has been a near peer power. The only thing that makes them a near peer is their nuclear stockpile.Long article explaining how Russia's early 35-mile-long convoy to overrun Kiev failed.
My god, they're stupid.
Update from Bakhmut, 27 February - Kiyanyn.