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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (6 Viewers)

What’s with all the telegraphing of a counter offensive?
I have been wondering about that and have wondered if it is part of a feint attack plan.

Build up the expectation of a counter offensive... even put out from some sources that the offensive may fail for lack of supplies etc. Put some forces up north like around Khakiv. Start an offensive up there... push, give it some time.... let the Russians shift up and then launch the real offensive somewhere to cut off the land bridge to the Crimea. Maybe retake Mariupol for example. If you are successful with that then you put the strained logistics of Russia in a very rough spot for the rest of the forces west of that successful push.

Think something similar to the Gulf War. There was a ton of talk about an amphibious attack. They had CNN taking video of amphibious landing exercises and pretty much did everything other than say "Hey, we are going to attack from the sea!" They fed it with even some Navy SEAL demolition action, landing force feints at Kuwait City and had those old Battleships lay down barrages like they did back in WWII to prep for landings.... and then we did a left hook using air cav and armor completely the other side.

Ukraine is certainly following NATO doctrine in war fighting as they shift away from the old Soviet doctrine (and of course evolving as the war goes on in their own right) so I think this, or something similar is a plausible explanation. Also, the Ukrainians will be getting much better intel on troops and equipment positions of the Russians than they Russians will be getting eyes on their movement thanks to NATO capabilities and Russian lacking capabilities.
 

President Vladimir Putin declared Tuesday that the West has unleashed “a real war” against Russia, reprising a familiar refrain at scaled-down Victory Day celebrations that may reflect the toll the Ukraine conflict is taking on his forces.

Putin’s remarks came just hours after Moscow fired its latest barrage of cruise missiles at targets in Ukraine, which Russia invaded more than 14 months ago. Ukrainian authorities said air defenses destroyed 23 of 25 missiles launched.

The Russian leader has repeatedly sought to paint his invasion of Ukraine as necessary to defend against a Western threat. Kyiv and its Western allies say they pose no such threat and that Moscow’s war is meant to deter Western influence in a country that Russia considers part of its sphere of influence.

“Today civilization is once again at a decisive turning point,” Putin said at the annual commemorations celebrating the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II. “A real war has been unleashed against our motherland.”

Putin has often used patriotic rhetoric that harkens back to the earlier war in an effort to rally his citizens and forces — and May 9 is one of the most important dates in the Russian political calendar. But this year’s celebrations were markedly smaller, at least partially because of security concerns after several drone attacks have been reported inside Russia.

Some 8,000 troops took part in the parade in Moscow’s Red Square on Tuesday — the lowest number since 2008. Even the procession in 2020, the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, featured some 13,000 soldiers, and last year, 11,000 troops took part. There was no fly-over of military jets, and the event lasted less than the usual hour.

“This is weak. There are no tanks,” said Yelena Orlova, watching the vehicles rumble down Moscow’s Novy Arbat avenue after leaving Red Square. “We’re upset, but that’s all right; it will be better in the future.”

The Kremlin’s forces deployed in Ukraine are defending a front line stretching more than 1,000 kilometers (600 miles), presumably thinning the ranks of troops available for such displays.

“This is supposed to be a showpiece for Russian military might. But so much of that military might has already been mauled in Ukraine that Russia has very little to show on its parade in Red Square,” said Keir Giles, a Russia expert at London’s Chatham House think tank.

As a display of military hardware it was “very underwhelming,” said Michael Clarke, visiting professor of war studies at King’s College London, noting that the T-34, the iconic World War II tank, was the only tank on display. “Normally they show off all the really modern stuff, and they didn’t have any of those. Nor did they seem to have armored fighting vehicles. … So there was nothing new on display.”
 

Yet the role of drones in the defence of Ukraine is growing. A Ukrainian colonel in Kyiv, speaking on condition of anonymity, says that, counting their role as reconnaissance machines for artillery, the flying robots now directly or indirectly play a part in more than 70% of Russian casualties. The hacked-together drones tend to be cheaper, and in some cases more effective, than some purpose-designed military machines. The result, says the colonel, is a “new level of war”.

All of this improvisation saves money. Eyes of Army reckons its modified octocopters cost a fifth of what an imported military drone with similar capabilities might cost. In another workshop elsewhere in Ukraine, a team of 30 volunteers is cutting carbon fibre with lasers to produce kamikaze quadcopters that deliver 1.5kg of explosives to targets up to 8km away. Each UAV 7, as the contraption is called, costs about $450; assembling the (reusable) control console costs about $1,500. The comparison is imperfect, but the Switchblade 300, a kamikaze drone with a similar payload and range that is manufactured by AeroVironment, an American firm, is reported to cost roughly $6,000 a pop.
Ukrainian troops fly both machines in the heavily jammed airspace around Bakhmut, an embattled eastern city. Around 50 or so drones, from both sides, are in the sky at any one point, says an official. Operators there tell the workshop’s boss, whose pseudonym is Boevsskiy, that the UAV 7 is more resistant to Russian electronic warfare than is the Switchblade 300—though they will not go into the technical details. One advantage is a clever signal repeater, designed with input from troops at the front, that greatly extends the UAV-7’s range.

Didn't quote full article, but that one is definitely worth a read if interested.
 
What’s with all the telegraphing of a counter offensive?
I have been wondering about that and have wondered if it is part of a feint attack plan.

Build up the expectation of a counter offensive... even put out from some sources that the offensive may fail for lack of supplies etc. Put some forces up north like around Khakiv. Start an offensive up there... push, give it some time.... let the Russians shift up and then launch the real offensive somewhere to cut off the land bridge to the Crimea. Maybe retake Mariupol for example. If you are successful with that then you put the strained logistics of Russia in a very rough spot for the rest of the forces west of that successful push.

Think something similar to the Gulf War. There was a ton of talk about an amphibious attack. They had CNN taking video of amphibious landing exercises and pretty much did everything other than say "Hey, we are going to attack from the sea!" They fed it with even some Navy SEAL demolition action, landing force feints at Kuwait City and had those old Battleships lay down barrages like they did back in WWII to prep for landings.... and then we did a left hook using air cav and armor completely the other side.

Ukraine is certainly following NATO doctrine in war fighting as they shift away from the old Soviet doctrine (and of course evolving as the war goes on in their own right) so I think this, or something similar is a plausible explanation. Also, the Ukrainians will be getting much better intel on troops and equipment positions of the Russians than they Russians will be getting eyes on their movement thanks to NATO capabilities and Russian lacking capabilities.

As a novice history nerd I always enjoy reading your stuff.
 
What’s with all the telegraphing of a counter offensive?
it offers several advantages

1) morale (both sides being impacted)
2) keeps pressure on west to help
3) deception

Ukraine is doing a masterful job of sowing confusion through their deception and maintaining opsec. They haven't even attacked and we are getting reports of Russian units fleeing near Bachmut. Reminds me of allies during WW2 and their utilization of Patton and their expected attack at Calais. Germany focused so much on the ruse that they ignored the true attack on Normandy till it was too late.

Meanwhile, Russian might has dropped so much the most they could muster for their victory parade is a single T34 tank.
 
What’s with all the telegraphing of a counter offensive?
it offers several advantages

1) morale (both sides being impacted)
2) keeps pressure on west to help
3) deception

Ukraine is doing a masterful job of sowing confusion through their deception and maintaining opsec. They haven't even attacked and we are getting reports of Russian units fleeing near Bachmut. Reminds me of allies during WW2 and their utilization of Patton and their expected attack at Calais. Germany focused so much on the ruse that they ignored the true attack on Normandy till it was too late.

Meanwhile, Russian might has dropped so much the most they could muster for their victory parade is a single T34 tank.
Yea, if you are a Russian on the front. Life sucks. Logistics suck. Conditions suck. Your officers suck and are miles and miles from the front. Your non-coms suck. Your equipment sucks. Your motivation sucks. And for months... you keep hearing that this big counter offensive is coming. That has to be soul crushing.
 

On Wednesday, Ukrainian officials announced they had captured several of Wagner’s positions on the outskirts of the city. But U.S. officials said they have seen no evidence to suggest that Wagner is preparing for such a total retreat.

Prigozhin has long spoken out against the Russian defense ministry, claiming his soldiers were leading the fight on the ground and that Moscow is not doing enough to help in Bakhmut. U.S. officials said Prigozhin’s recent remarks about Bakhmut are not credible and were likely meant to elicit a reaction from inside Moscow’s defense apparatus — to force Moscow to send additional weapons.

Despite Prigozhion’s statements, Wagner continues to hold significant stockpiles of ammunition and maintains control of at least 85 percent of Bakhmut, the U.S. officials said. One of the officials said although Wagner forces appear intact in Bakhmut it is still possible that Chechen forces move into the city to help.


Pervasive issues with Russian combat capability, exacerbated by continued attritional assaults in the Bakhmut area, are likely considerably constraining the ability of Russian forces in this area to defend against localized Ukrainian counterattacks. The 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade itself is emblematic of many of the endemic force generation issues constantly faced by the Russian military. ISW reported on August 7, 2022, that the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade was forming in Orenburg Oblast as part of the 3rd Army Corps, a new formation created in 2022 and largely comprised of volunteer battalions.[7] Forbes reported in September of 2022 that the 3rd Army Corps deployed to Kharkiv Oblast and that the Ukrainian Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensive largely destroyed the corps’ constituent elements, likely including the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade.[8] Ukrainian media suggested that the surviving elements of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade may have redeployed to Mykolaiv Oblast following the Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensive, where they once against suffered losses during Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive in October 2022.[9] ISW cannot confirm where the 72nd Brigade deployed to following the withdrawal of Russian forces from the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River, but it is highly likely that whatever elements of the 72nd Brigade that deployed to the Bakhmut area more recently are not operating at anywhere near full strength. The Russian military command’s apparent commitment of elements of a formation that has suffered two successive defeats to the Bakhmut axis alongside already attrited Wagner elements likely offer Ukrainian forces opportunities to exploit with limited counterattacks. A Russian milblogger, citing a Wagner commander active in the Bakhmut area, additionally reported that the alleged withdrawal of the 72nd Brigade was the result of severe miscommunication between command of the 72nd Brigade and the Wagner Group.[10] Issues with the ad hoc commitment of various depleted force groupings to the Bakhmut axis, alongside apparent command and control failures, are likely preventing Russian forces in the area from conducting sound defensive operations.


Good thread. They probably should have kept Surovikin in charge. Gerasimov has been poor to say the least: https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1656048006423285766



Forfeited Russian assets to be transferred to Ukraine for first time​

The US has authorised the transfer of forfeited Russian assets to Ukraine for the first time.
They had belonged to Konstantin Malofeyev, an oligarch who was charged by the Justice Department for violating sanctions imposed on Russia last year.
He was accused of providing financing for Russians promoting separatism in Crimea.
US Attorney General Merrick Garland also announced "the seizure of millions of dollars from an account at a US financial institution traceable to Malofeyev's sanctions violations".
In February, Mr Garland said he authorised the transfer of that money for use in Ukraine.
"While this represents the United States' first transfer of forfeited Russian funds for the rebuilding of Ukraine, it will not be the last," he added in a statement.
 
The #Czech Republic could give #Ukraine some of its L-159 fighter jets to support its planned counter-offensive, Czech President Petr Pavel was quoted as saying on Wednesday. Prague has been among Kyiv's staunchest allies from the outbreak of #RussiaisATerroistState 's aggression last February, providing material from ammunition to tanks worth billions of dollars. The L-159 is a Czech-made, light subsonic combat aircraft designed for air support of ground forces, reconnaissance and partly also for air combat missions. "It is worth considering whether we could provide Ukraine with our L-159 aircraft," Pavel told Czech public radio in an interview. "As direct combat support aircraft, (the planes) could also help Ukraine significantly in the counteroffensive," he said. Any decision on military shipments falls to the government. Ukraine was also in the process of receiving two units of the Kub air-defence system from the Czechs, Pavel said.
 
The Black Sea should be a source of strength for the Russians with complete supremacy. The initial stages of the war saw them, as expected, wipe the Ukranian Navy off the board. However, the Ukranians fought back. Sinking the Moskva (the Black Sea Flagship) with an attack that is believed to have involved a number of airborne drones to distract the defenses and then two successful R-360 Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles which caused secondary munitions explosions and sunk her. It should be noted that the Neptunes are a native Ukranian weapon based on an old Soviet design but greatly improved upon. This lead the Russians to go into a defensive posture to protect their assets and essentially limiting their usefulness to lobbing missiles over the horizon. Then later they used small surface drones (I believe also native weapon systems) that damaged a couple of other ships. That lead the Russians to basically keep their fleet in port and become not only not usable but a liability as they have to protect it. This is just another example of the Ukranians not just begging the West for weapons but making their own and being innovative.

 
"All against all...complete disunity of the front" - Russian volunteer Anastasiya Kashevarova explains what happened between Wagner and the 72nd Brigade in Bakhmut in a long Telegram post. She says Russian Forces are not allowed to communicate with Wagner. Wagner was forced to retreat in one area as Ukrainians exploited weakness and broke through. She says the 72nd had no idea and no troops in the area to cover. She also says Russian sides all hate each other, making fun of each other. She calls for unity or the war will not be won. Translation in 3 screenshots (long read).
 
I recently read this:
"The war [has] brutally exposed [Russia's] many weaknesses: the corruption and incompetence of the command; the technological backwardness of the army and navy; the poor roads and lack of railways that accounted for the chronic problems of supply; the poverty of the army's serf conscripts; the inability of the economy to sustain a state of war against the industrial powers; the weakness of the country's finances; and the failures of the autocracy."

What's interesting is that this was written by the author, Orlando Figes, in his recent book, The Story of Russia, as he describes Russia's efforts ...in the Crimean War in the mid-1850s.
 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine needs more time before it can launch a much-anticipated counteroffensive against Russia, because its military hasn’t yet received equipment pledged by Western allies and the cost in lives could be too great if it were to proceed now.
“With what we have we can go forward,” Mr. Zelensky said in an interview with the British Broadcasting Corp., referring to arms supplied by Ukraine’s partners, “and I think we can be successful. But we will lose a great many people…I think that’s impossible. So we need to wait. We need some more time.”

Kyiv has kept secret where along the 900-mile front line the offensive will take place, and its main challenge will be punching through defenses along broadly static front lines that Russia has built up over months, anticipating a Ukrainian attack. The expected push is seen as a crucial test of its ability to use Western military aid to redraw the battle lines and show its Western partners that it can take back territory if given enough support.

In the interview, Mr. Zelensky said Ukrainian combat brigades, many of them trained in member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, are ready to be deployed, but the Ukrainian military is still short of some equipment, including armored vehicles that can help it break through Russian lines while offering a degree of protection for its infantry.
 

Russian military blogger reporting not good news in Bakhmut area. Great to hear.


The US has accused South Africa of supplying arms to Russia in a covert naval operation, sharply escalating a foreign policy crisis for President Cyril Ramaphosa over the country’s ties to the Kremlin and its position on the Ukraine war.

Reuben Brigety, US ambassador to South Africa, told local media on Thursday that the US believed weapons and ammunition were loaded on to the Lady R, a Russian vessel under sanctions that docked at Simon’s Town naval dockyard near Cape Town in December.

“Among the things we noted was the docking of the cargo ship . . . which we are confident uploaded weapons and ammunition on to that vessel in Simon’s Town as it made its way back to Russia,” he said, in comments reported by South Africa’s News24.

“We are confident that weapons were loaded onto that vessel, and I would bet my life on the accuracy of that assertion,” he added.

Thread on Storm Shadow missile, which has been supplied to Ukraine via the UK: https://twitter.com/FRHoffmann1/status/1656653883387817984


Thread with comments from British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace: https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1656636749898973187?cxt=HHwWhoCw-ZiWx_0tAAAA


Wagner group not running out of munitions - their attacks are increasing, says Ukrainian commander​

Russian mercenary fighters have stepped up their shelling and artillery attacks in recent days, and are not facing a shortage of munitions, a Ukrainian brigade commander in Bakhmut has said.
The eastern city, often referred to as the "meat grinder", has been the site of fierce fighting for months now, with both sides suffering severe losses.
For weeks now, the boss of the mercenary Wagner group Yevgeny Prigozhin has complained that the Russian army has been depriving his forces of enough ammunition to capture the area.
But for Ukrainian Colonel Roman Hryshchenko, the commander of Ukraine's 127th Territorial Defence Brigade, the forces haven't "had anything even close to a munitions' deficit".
"In the last few days, the intensity of shelling and rocket artillery has increased," Ms Hryshchenko said.
He said Russian forces were conducting constant assaults in the city - and that Ukrainian troops were beating them back.
"The situation is difficult. The enemy is throwing a great deal of its forces at us, constant waves of assaults," he added.
He and the rest of his brigade have inhabited the ruins of Bakhmut for nearly two months, he said.
 
Jacking the Russian defenses up to 11, then waiting as your armaments continue to get stronger and Russian morale, supplies, and munitions continue to dwindle before truly engaging in a counter offensive might be a pretty good strategy. At least absent the pressure that comes from the US elections next year or other threats to the West's continued support for Ukraine.

Feint a few times. Build up troops in presumably weak areas. Selectively engage. Make Russians move men and material around. Keep the psychological pressure up.

Literally and metaphorically bleed out a weak opponent, and allow domestic dissatisfaction to grow in Russia, for another few weeks/months before committing to the risks and sacrifices that will follow.

At the least, something like that would explain why it's been so well telegraphed.
 

A # of Russian telegram channels believe Ukraine's counteroffensive has begun with successful advances NW and SW of Bakhmut and Soledar. They warn of fighting/movements near Maiorsk, Kupyansk, and Hulyaipole.



Colonel-General Syrskyi says "We are counterattacking" but unclear whether this is the big one or not (this comment appears to be in reference to in and around Bakhmut). These have been covered in yesterday's ISW briefing: "ISW has previously assessed that reports of Ukrainian counterattacks throughout Donetsk Oblast appear to be a part of an ongoing pattern of localized and limited counterattacks."


IMHO, what’s happening now near Bakhmut is not The Big One We All Wait For. More likely a limited operation to secure Ukrainian ground lines of communications running into the city. However, let’s wait and see. There’s nothing that can surprise me at this point.


Long story short, Z-channels have crapped their pants altogether from the slightest perspective of a Ukrainian offensive. Pathetic.

^Basically


Interesting… A statement from the Russian Defence Ministry tonight: "Claims spread by certain Telegram channels about 'defences being broken through' on various parts of the contact line are not true"

Things must be bad then^


^Yup


Weapons not being smuggled out of Ukraine in high numbers, says EU

The EU has not observed any significant smuggling of weapons into Europe from wartime Ukraine, the European Commission's top internal affairs official has said.
"I must say that we have not seen any industrial smuggling of firearms out of Ukraine," Ylva Johansson said.
However, some individual cases of small arms being transported out of the country have been recorded - mostly by individuals who are trying to take weapons out as "trophies or for personal protection".
"They're being taken, of course, at the border by the border guards," Ms Johansson said.
She added that the issue of arms smuggling had been high on the
list of topics discussed in her meeting with Ukrainian Interior Minister Oleksandr Klymenko.


The Ukrainian military says Russia launched nearly 50 airstrikes over the last day as intense fighting puts pressure on forward Russian positions west of the city of Bakhmut.

The military’s General Staff said Thursday that Russia also carried out six missile attacks.

Russian forces continue to advance around Bakhmut and have carried out a number of airstrikes in the area, Kyiv's military said. But Ukrainian forces have exploited gaps in Russian flanks south and west of the city to recapture some territory, according to the General Staff.

One officer deployed in the area said Ukraine was in an “active offensive phase” around Bakhmut, after months of mainly defensive action.

“Right now, dynamic events are taking place on both the southern and northern flanks of Bakhmut, but we will not talk about the result yet,” Maj. Maksym Zhorin said on Telegram.

Russian writers weigh in: Some Russian military bloggers have painted a gloomy picture of Russia's prospects around Bakhmut.

One of them, Sasha Simonov, said units of Russia’s 4th Army Brigade had withdrawn from an area west of the city. This is consistent with Ukrainian reports of advances there earlier this week.

Ukrainian fighters have also attempted a breakthrough near Bohdanivka, which is northwest of Bakhmut, Simonov said.
 
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I think you have a counter offensive in Bakhmut but it isn't THE counter offensive. The most likely explanation to me is that they have been pushed back and they are trying to protect the one crucial road that leads into Bakhmut. If that is cut then their positions in Bakhmut are indefensible and they would have to retreat to Kramortsk (spelling could be off there and I am too lazy to look it up) which is a fairly large city about west by northwest of Bakhmut and the next defensible position if you are looking at the major supply lines (roads). Bakhmut would not make much sense to me as being the area that they launch their major counter offensive at as it has limited strategic value. The biggest strategic payoff that they can get militarily to me would be a successful cutting of the 'land bridge' to Crimea. They could do it in Bakhmut if they were hoping to force the Russians to the negotiation table but the Ukrainians have not indicated any desire to do that unless every part of Ukraine is gained back. I don't think the Russians would give up Crimea until you have destroyed their ability to wage war. Cut Crimea off and then destroy the Russian formations there would largely do that trick I think.

The thing about this that is awesome is how this shows the Russians are ripe to be broken through. A smaller counter offensive has them running from their positions. A lot has been made about the defensive lines that the Russians have made but those are worthless if you don't have troops willing to stay and fight using them. What is being reported in Bakhmut is a good indication that a Ukrainian major counter offensive is likely to be successful in that a strong push could see Russian formations melt away. If that happens then like the last counter offensive Russia could end up being the largest donator to the Ukrainian cause as gear is left and supply depos are captured.

I have seen that they have formed 12 new brigades, 9 of which were trained by NATO nations and outfitted with Western gear. That is a lot of firepower to invest in a counter offensive. Who knows if any of them have been committed to this Bakhmut counter offensive.
 
I think you have a counter offensive in Bakhmut but it isn't THE counter offensive. The most likely explanation to me is that they have been pushed back and they are trying to protect the one crucial road that leads into Bakhmut. If that is cut then their positions in Bakhmut are indefensible and they would have to retreat to Kramortsk (spelling could be off there and I am too lazy to look it up) which is a fairly large city about west by northwest of Bakhmut and the next defensible position if you are looking at the major supply lines (roads). Bakhmut would not make much sense to me as being the area that they launch their major counter offensive at as it has limited strategic value. The biggest strategic payoff that they can get militarily to me would be a successful cutting of the 'land bridge' to Crimea. They could do it in Bakhmut if they were hoping to force the Russians to the negotiation table but the Ukrainians have not indicated any desire to do that unless every part of Ukraine is gained back. I don't think the Russians would give up Crimea until you have destroyed their ability to wage war. Cut Crimea off and then destroy the Russian formations there would largely do that trick I think.

The thing about this that is awesome is how this shows the Russians are ripe to be broken through. A smaller counter offensive has them running from their positions. A lot has been made about the defensive lines that the Russians have made but those are worthless if you don't have troops willing to stay and fight using them. What is being reported in Bakhmut is a good indication that a Ukrainian major counter offensive is likely to be successful in that a strong push could see Russian formations melt away. If that happens then like the last counter offensive Russia could end up being the largest donator to the Ukrainian cause as gear is left and supply depos are captured.

I have seen that they have formed 12 new brigades, 9 of which were trained by NATO nations and outfitted with Western gear. That is a lot of firepower to invest in a counter offensive. Who knows if any of them have been committed to this Bakhmut counter offensive.

Agreed. My gut says this isn't the big counter offensive. Perhaps this could be a test of sorts to see if Russia sends units to Bakhmut and weakens other areas as a result.

Russia seems nervous as you noted. Shaking in their boots as to when this offensive will occur.

Good thread here: https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1656800463461785601?cxt=HHwWgoC9hcrPkf4tAAAA


I don’t know if there are breakthroughs and all that. I’m not there. But Russians’ behaviour on public channels is very similar to what was happening during successful regroupings from Kherson and Kharkiv. They never panicked unless they had a reason to. They have a lot of eyes in the field, the military reporters, soldiers. I take it all with a grain of salt but I also don’t see a good reason for them to spread negativity without a good reason.


Russian milblogger Rybar's latest map from late May 11 reports Ukrainian advances on Bakhmut's flanks. Rybar claims Ukrainians advanced near Klishchiivka and Bohdanivka and that Russian forces lost "several strongholds" near the former.

Just saw this update from CNN:

Ukrainian forces have begun “shaping” operations in advance of a highly-anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces, a senior US military official and senior Western official tell CNN.

Shaping involves striking targets such as weapons depots, command centers and armor and artillery systems to prepare the battlefield for advancing forces. It's a standard tactic made prior to major combined operations.

When Ukraine launched a counteroffensive late last summer in the southern and northeastern parts of the country, it was similarly preceded by air attacks to shape the battlefield. These shaping operations could continue for many days before the bulk of any planned Ukrainian offensive, according to the senior US military official.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country still needs “a bit more time” before it launches the counteroffensive, in order to allow some more of the promised Western military aid to arrive in the country.

“With [what we have] we can go forward and be successful,” Zelensky told European public service broadcasters in an interview published on Thursday. “But we’d lose a lot of people. I think that’s unacceptable.”
“So we need to wait. We still need a bit more time,” he said.
Among the supplies Ukraine is still waiting for are armored vehicles — including tanks —which Zelensky said were “arriving in batches.”

Shaping operations can also be designed to confuse the enemy.

Last summer, Kharkiv had very little in the way of softening up; it was a lightning ground offensive. Most of the shaping came in Kherson, through long-range attacks on bridges, ammo stores and command centers. Most of these were carried out by HIMARS. There were some, but not many, air strikes.
 
I think you have a counter offensive in Bakhmut but it isn't THE counter offensive. The most likely explanation to me is that they have been pushed back and they are trying to protect the one crucial road that leads into Bakhmut. If that is cut then their positions in Bakhmut are indefensible and they would have to retreat to Kramortsk (spelling could be off there and I am too lazy to look it up) which is a fairly large city about west by northwest of Bakhmut and the next defensible position if you are looking at the major supply lines (roads). Bakhmut would not make much sense to me as being the area that they launch their major counter offensive at as it has limited strategic value. The biggest strategic payoff that they can get militarily to me would be a successful cutting of the 'land bridge' to Crimea. They could do it in Bakhmut if they were hoping to force the Russians to the negotiation table but the Ukrainians have not indicated any desire to do that unless every part of Ukraine is gained back. I don't think the Russians would give up Crimea until you have destroyed their ability to wage war. Cut Crimea off and then destroy the Russian formations there would largely do that trick I think.

The thing about this that is awesome is how this shows the Russians are ripe to be broken through. A smaller counter offensive has them running from their positions. A lot has been made about the defensive lines that the Russians have made but those are worthless if you don't have troops willing to stay and fight using them. What is being reported in Bakhmut is a good indication that a Ukrainian major counter offensive is likely to be successful in that a strong push could see Russian formations melt away. If that happens then like the last counter offensive Russia could end up being the largest donator to the Ukrainian cause as gear is left and supply depos are captured.

I have seen that they have formed 12 new brigades, 9 of which were trained by NATO nations and outfitted with Western gear. That is a lot of firepower to invest in a counter offensive. Who knows if any of them have been committed to this Bakhmut counter offensive.

Agreed. My gut says this isn't the big counter offensive. Perhaps this could be a test of sorts to see if Russia sends units to Bakhmut and weakens other areas as a result.

Russia seems nervous as you noted. Shaking in their boots as to when this offensive will occur.

This could act as the feint that I talked about earlier..... and might actually be a brilliant move. You have the Russians who have been pouring resources into there for.... I dunno... they are stubborn. You been talking about this offensive. You put just enough resources in there to make a counter offensive thrust that helps your defensive position anyways and I don't know this but I am guessing the Russians have not been able to build up nearly as much of defensive positions as other areas along the frontlines. The Russians react, move even more forces there and then you make your major counter offensive further south hoping to break through to the Sea of Azov.

From the fear and formations apparently 'retreating' as we are hearing.... the counter offensive may end up being more successful than any of the NATO nations thought possible. (considering they have been wrong from the get go... it isn't surprising).

The Russian military bloggers tend to be cheerleaders so when they bring up negatives, I think it is worth noting and putting a good amount of weight into it.
 

^Prigozhin at it again. Appears to be in response to this: https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1656970691227549696

Short CNN video with interviews of Ukrainian commanders who took part in recent counter attacks around Bakhmut: https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1657013169871544322

^Interesting. The commander says Wagner forces were the first to flee and that the units Prigozhin is bad mouthing fought to the end.




Unnamed Kremlin sources claimed that Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin’s recent rhetoric is “seriously disturbing the top leadership” of Russia. Two Kremlin sources told Russian opposition outlet Meduza that the Kremlin saw Prigozhin’s attempts to blackmail the Russian MoD on May 5 as a “serious threat” and that Prigozhin is not acting in the Kremlin’s interests.[13] One interlocutor stated that Prigozhin is committed to claiming Bakhmut as a personal victory in order to have influence over the Russian MoD. The Kremlin reportedly expressed further concerns over Prigozhin’s May 9 mockery of the “happy grandfather” figure who is responsible for future Russian generations.[14] ISW assessed on May 9 that Prigozhin was likely referring to Putin, and a Kremlin source claims that Prigozhin’s statement was a direct allusion to Putin. The second interlocutor claimed that Prigozhin’s rhetoric cannot be interpreted as a “direct attack” on Putin, however. Prigozhin attempted on May 10 to downplay his original statements, claiming that the “happy grandfather” did not refer to Putin.[15] The sources noted that Prigozhin’s escalating behavior is likely a result of his inability to meet an unspecified deadline for the capture of Bakhmut. One source claimed that Prigozhin is blaming conventional units in order to avoid accepting responsibility for failing to follow through on his “personal promise” to capture Bakhmut.


Ukraine won't know how good their plan is until they try it​

Sky News defence and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke says he doesn't believe this is the beginning of the anticipated counteroffensive, but it could be the beginning of the phase before.
He said: "We are waiting for the beginning of the Ukrainian offensive, some say this is it, but I don't think it will be.
"When that offensive begins, it will almost certainly start with lots of deception and decoys. I think there will be a couple of weeks of real uncertainty, but we may now be in the beginning of that process of uncertainty and confusion.
"The Ukrainians are waiting for the weather to get better and in the next couple of weeks there's not much rain in the forecast for southern Ukraine, the ground is drying very fast.
"So the Ukrainians know that this is their moment, but we don't know how well they have integrated all their armour, and they don't know until they try it.
"As the old saying goes, 'no military plan survives first contact with the enemy' or as Mike Tyson put it, 'everyone has a plan until you get hit in the mouth'."


Egypt has ignored U.S. requests to close its airspace to Russian military flights, American and Egyptian officials said, testing the limits of Washington’s ability to choke off Moscow’s supplies ahead of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The U.S. and Ukraine persuaded countries including Turkey, Jordan and Iraq to cut access for at least some Russian military planes last year after the invasion of Ukraine, forcing Moscow’s aircraft to fly 2,000 extra miles and up to five hours further to reach strategic bases in Syria.
But Egypt has permitted Russian overflights, giving Moscow a circuitous but certain path to Syria, where its forces have helped President Bashar al-Assad in a civil war in recent years. U.S. officials say Russia has used the flights to ferry weapons to Ukraine from Syria.
The U.S. and Egyptian officials said multiple American officials asked Egypt in February and March to close its airspace to the Russian military, a move that would effectively block air access to Syria. Egypt hasn’t responded to the request, the officials said, and continues to allow Russian flights.
 

Ukrainian forces have advanced by about 2 km around the eastern city of Bakhmut this week and have not given up any positions there in that time, Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said on Friday.
But she appeared to play down suggestions that Ukraine had already started a much-anticipated counteroffensive, and urged Ukrainians to disregard what she described as Russian disinformation about the situation in and around Bakhmut.

In a separate Telegram post, Maliar later said that Russian attacks were being met by defensive operations and counterattacks, suggesting such moves should not be considered part of any major Ukrainian counteroffensive.
"This situation has actually been going on in the east for several months," she wrote. "That's it! Nothing more is happening."


 

Explosions have rocked the eastern Ukrainian city of Luhansk, which is occupied by Russian forces and is a significant hub for Moscow's so-called "special military operation," according to local officials.

The head of the self-declared Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), Leonid Pasechnik, blamed Ukraine for the attack, calling it "another attempt by the Kyiv terrorist regime to intimidate civilians."

"Firefighters and all emergency services are on the scene. The circumstances of the incident and information on the victims are being specified," he said.

Pasechnik said the Leninsky district of the city was shelled on "Republic Day," which is a holiday in the breakaway region.

Two missiles struck the city's industrial zone, the coordination committee of the LPR said on Telegram. The committee claimed the Ukrainian-made "Grom" missile system was used.

The Grom is a ballistic missile that would have the range to strike Luhansk and it has previously been used in the conflict. But no evidence that it was used in this attack has been provided by the local authorities in Luhansk.

The city has rarely come under attack by Ukrainian forces since the Russian invasion, as it is beyond the range of their long-range rocket and missile systems, such as HIMARS.

One Telegram account said there had been two explosions and that smoke was visible over the city. A video posted online shows a large column of black smoke.




 
Sounds like Ukranians are collapsing Russian lines around Bakhmut -- rolling back months of Russian gains in a few hours in some places. No idea what it means bigger picture, except that it's got to be a blow to Russian morale that their work has been undone so easily.

ETA: it's amazing to me that Prigozhin is still alive.
 
Last edited:

When Ukraine used the Patriot for the first time last week to intercept a Russian hypersonic missile, Russia was targeting the Patriot battery itself, two US officials tell
@NatashaBertr and @OrenCNN

Thread on how the Russians will perform on the defensive: https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1657151190562381825

^won't be good


KYIV, Ukraine — They started shelling at sunrise.
In the dawn haze, under the cover of their own artillery, small groups of Ukrainian soldiers advanced toward a Russian position on the outskirts of the embattled city of Bakhmut.

Drone footage had identified an avenue of attack on Russian lines on the outskirts of the besieged city. Intelligence suggested the Russians were so focused on the intense street battles playing out inside they were not expecting an assault in this direction, according to two battalion commanders in Ukraine’s Third Assault Brigade who helped plan and execute the operation and spoke by telephone.

Yet instead of giving Russian President Vladimir Putin a victory to announce in his speech in front of the Kremlin on Tuesday, Ukrainian forces scored a rare advance this week south of the city and held fast in the city center. The two commanders shared details of the surprise offensive, which Ukrainian ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrsky confirmed was successful. The Washington Post could not independently verify the details of the fighting.

On May 6, dozens of Ukrainian troops advanced on the Russian foxholes knowing they would “have to fight for every single pit,” said Rollo, the 29-year-old commander of the brigade’s first assault battalion, who spoke on the condition he would be identified only by his call sign.
The battle lasted for 12 grueling hours but by sundown, the troops from Wagner Group broke and fled, leaving five dead behind.
“They tried to resist. They fired back. Others escaped, and then some were killed,” Rollo said. “But in the end, those who remained alive just ran away.”
Two days later, after withstanding Russian artillery counterattack on the newly seized position, the Ukrainians advanced again — moving through farmland in three columns of tanks and American-made armored personnel carriers. Once within earshot of the enemy, they spent hours negotiating with dozens of Russian soldiers, urging them to surrender.
On May 5 and 6, Russian soldiers hammered the position held by the 127th Territorial Defense Brigade so many times that after the fourth wave of attack, the Ukrainians could no longer keep track of the dead and wounded Russians outside, said the brigade’s commander, Col. Roman Hryshchenko, 41.

“The faster we dealt with these waves, the faster they were relaunching the storms,” he recalled by phone from inside Bakhmut on Thursday, as the Russians pummeled the position he was holding. In just over 20 minutes on Thursday night, Hryshchenko counted the sound of 48 incoming shells aimed at his forces. At one point, he had to disconnect the call to see if his shelter had caught fire.

The scale of the advance Rollo’s man achieved in the south would be impossible inside the dense confines of the city, Hryshchenko said. “You cannot make a success like two kilometers [1.2 miles]. We are talking about each individual meter, and each meter is a hard job to get back.”

And while Prigozhin claims he is running out of ammunition and not being given the resources he needs by the Russian Defense Ministry, the Ukrainian troops arrayed against him say the scale of the assault is worse than ever.
Hryshchenko described how his 127th Brigade rations ammunition for its howitzer, while each day the Russians are covering every square mile with shells until every building is destroyed.
“If I had that opportunity to use that much artillery,” he said, “I would probably finish the war.”
 

When Ukraine used the Patriot for the first time last week to intercept a Russian hypersonic missile, Russia was targeting the Patriot battery itself, two US officials tell
@NatashaBertr and @OrenCNN

Thread on how the Russians will perform on the defensive: https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1657151190562381825

^won't be good


KYIV, Ukraine — They started shelling at sunrise.
In the dawn haze, under the cover of their own artillery, small groups of Ukrainian soldiers advanced toward a Russian position on the outskirts of the embattled city of Bakhmut.

Drone footage had identified an avenue of attack on Russian lines on the outskirts of the besieged city. Intelligence suggested the Russians were so focused on the intense street battles playing out inside they were not expecting an assault in this direction, according to two battalion commanders in Ukraine’s Third Assault Brigade who helped plan and execute the operation and spoke by telephone.

Yet instead of giving Russian President Vladimir Putin a victory to announce in his speech in front of the Kremlin on Tuesday, Ukrainian forces scored a rare advance this week south of the city and held fast in the city center. The two commanders shared details of the surprise offensive, which Ukrainian ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrsky confirmed was successful. The Washington Post could not independently verify the details of the fighting.

On May 6, dozens of Ukrainian troops advanced on the Russian foxholes knowing they would “have to fight for every single pit,” said Rollo, the 29-year-old commander of the brigade’s first assault battalion, who spoke on the condition he would be identified only by his call sign.
The battle lasted for 12 grueling hours but by sundown, the troops from Wagner Group broke and fled, leaving five dead behind.
“They tried to resist. They fired back. Others escaped, and then some were killed,” Rollo said. “But in the end, those who remained alive just ran away.”
Two days later, after withstanding Russian artillery counterattack on the newly seized position, the Ukrainians advanced again — moving through farmland in three columns of tanks and American-made armored personnel carriers. Once within earshot of the enemy, they spent hours negotiating with dozens of Russian soldiers, urging them to surrender.
On May 5 and 6, Russian soldiers hammered the position held by the 127th Territorial Defense Brigade so many times that after the fourth wave of attack, the Ukrainians could no longer keep track of the dead and wounded Russians outside, said the brigade’s commander, Col. Roman Hryshchenko, 41.

“The faster we dealt with these waves, the faster they were relaunching the storms,” he recalled by phone from inside Bakhmut on Thursday, as the Russians pummeled the position he was holding. In just over 20 minutes on Thursday night, Hryshchenko counted the sound of 48 incoming shells aimed at his forces. At one point, he had to disconnect the call to see if his shelter had caught fire.

The scale of the advance Rollo’s man achieved in the south would be impossible inside the dense confines of the city, Hryshchenko said. “You cannot make a success like two kilometers [1.2 miles]. We are talking about each individual meter, and each meter is a hard job to get back.”

And while Prigozhin claims he is running out of ammunition and not being given the resources he needs by the Russian Defense Ministry, the Ukrainian troops arrayed against him say the scale of the assault is worse than ever.
Hryshchenko described how his 127th Brigade rations ammunition for its howitzer, while each day the Russians are covering every square mile with shells until every building is destroyed.
“If I had that opportunity to use that much artillery,” he said, “I would probably finish the war.”
Apparently the Patriot battery had a 85% success rate.... but an expert explained that the way that they defend against missile attacks is to ignore those that are outside of the target area and thus not a threat and thus the actual success rate could in theory be 100%. Considering no Patriot batteries were lost and if this guy is correct, sounds about right.

The maps on the other twitter are insanely detailed.
 
Sounds like Ukranians are collapsing Russian lines around Bakhmut -- rolling back months of Russian gains in a few hours in some places. No idea what it means bigger picture, except that it's got to be a blow to Russian morale that their work has been undone so easily.

ETA: it's amazing to me that Prigozhin is still alive.
he is avoiding windows
 

^That's a blow.

Video of one of them being shot down: https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1657328548946821120


Germany announced on Saturday that it would supply Ukraine with an aid package worth nearly $3 billion to strengthen the country’s defense, marking Berlin’s largest pledge in military aid since the start of the war.

The German Ministry of Defence said in a statement that the package may include a variety of military hardware, including armoured personnel carriers, 30 Leopard tanks, reconnaissance drones and ammunition.

“With this valuable contribution of urgently needed military material, we are once again showing that Germany is serious about its support,” Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said.

“We all wish for a speedy end to this terrible war waged by Russia against the Ukrainian people, which is contrary to international law. Unfortunately, this is not yet in sight. Germany will therefore provide all the help it can - as long as it takes,” Pistorius added.
 

^That's a blow.

Video of one of them being shot down: https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1657328548946821120


Germany announced on Saturday that it would supply Ukraine with an aid package worth nearly $3 billion to strengthen the country’s defense, marking Berlin’s largest pledge in military aid since the start of the war.

The German Ministry of Defence said in a statement that the package may include a variety of military hardware, including armoured personnel carriers, 30 Leopard tanks, reconnaissance drones and ammunition.

“With this valuable contribution of urgently needed military material, we are once again showing that Germany is serious about its support,” Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said.

“We all wish for a speedy end to this terrible war waged by Russia against the Ukrainian people, which is contrary to international law. Unfortunately, this is not yet in sight. Germany will therefore provide all the help it can - as long as it takes,” Pistorius added.
You said blow, I thought it was bad....

They are just asking to get knocked out of the sky flying that altitude. Not high enough... not low enough. Pick one.
 
two articles, both from Moscow Times, telling two different stories about Bakhmut


 

But behind closed doors, Ukraine’s leader has proposed going in a more audacious direction — occupying Russian villages to gain leverage over Moscow, bombing a pipeline that transfers Russian oil to Hungary, a NATO member, and privately pining for long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russia’s borders, according to classified U.S. intelligence documents detailing his internal communications with top aides and military leaders.


Two senior Russian military officers have been killed in eastern Ukraine, Moscow’s Ministry of Defense said on Sunday, as Kyiv pledged its long-awaited counteroffensive will liberate occupied areas of Ukraine.

Russian officials claimed in a statement issued on Sunday that they were repelling Ukrainian attacks around the contested town of Bakhmut. But they conceded that top army leaders had been among the casualties in their own ranks.

“The commander of the 4th motorized rifle brigade, Colonel Vyacheslav Makarov, personally led the battle from the front,” the ministry said. “While repulsing of a third attack, the brigade commander was seriously wounded and died during the evacuation from the battlefield.”

In addition, the deputy commander of the army corps, Colonel Yevgeny Brovko, was also killed, the ministry said.


^Russian volunteer on the situation for Russian forces in Bakhmut. Not sounding good for them!


“It is too early to talk about successes in the city itself,” said a member of a platoon rotating out of Bakhmut. He was one of 16 soldiers waiting for a military transport in Chasiv Yar after a monthlong tour. “We need more Javelins,” he said, referring to the U.S.-made missiles supplied to Ukraine. “Russian tanks are giving us nightmares.”

Chasiv Yar, about six miles to the west of Bakhmut, is itself under siege as the two sides trade volleys of artillery and rockets. It is now the next line of defense for Ukraine if the Russians were to take Bakhmut and continue advancing west.
“Our troops are gradually advancing in two directions in the suburbs of Bakhmut,” Hanna Mailar, a Ukrainian deputy minister of defense, said in a statement on Saturday night. She said active hostilities made it impossible to give precise details about the state of the fighting but claimed that the Ukrainians “are destroying the enemy and have already taken many prisoners.”
“The situation in the city itself is more complicated,” she said.

The Ukrainians are now seeking to exploit those losses by attacking the positions around the city that they lost in the winter and trying to encircle the Russian forces inside the ruins of Bakhmut.
Russian forces control more than 90 percent of the city, according to Russian and Ukrainian officials, but the Ukrainians are keeping them from taking the last bit of land and advancing on Chasiv Yar.
Under the shelter of a battered bus stop in Chasiv Yar, a platoon of soldiers rotating out of Bakhmut did not flinch as outgoing artillery boomed and incoming rockets thundered close by. They had faced much worse.
The commander of the 24th Motorized Rifle Brigade, who goes by the call sign Prince, said on Saturday that after taking a short tactical pause, Russian forces were furiously assaulting the city again.

“Artillery fire, rocket and airstrikes do not stop for a minute,” he said. “Every meter of the city is now under shelling."


U.S. and European Union exports of sensitive, so-called dual-use goods to countries in Russia’s neighborhood rose sharply in 2022. So did these countries’ shipments of these products to Russia, often by a similar multiple, an analysis of United Nations trade data shows.
The data suggests Moscow continues to acquire crucial Western goods—whose sale is mostly restricted by U.S. and European sanctions—as it seeks to keep its economy afloat and its war machine running.
In total, U.S. and EU goods exports to Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan rose to $24.3 billion last year from $14.6 billion in 2021. These countries collectively increased their exports to Russia by nearly 50% last year to around $15 billion.
This booming trade route—which analysts at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development call the Eurasian roundabout—is a sign of Russia’s success in finding new ways to acquire sought-after goods despite Western sanctions, European officials say.
 

Stalinist practices becoming 'normalised' in Russian government

Stalinist practices are being increasingly normalised in all branches of Russian government, according to military experts.
Vladimir Putin's desire to conduct the conflict in the style of the Second World War is nurturing a Soviet culture, the Institute for the Study of War said.
They pointed to Alexander Bastrykin, head of the Russian Investigative Committee, who yesterday proposed nationalising "the main sectors" of the economy to ensure the economic security of the invasion.
Russian elites are increasingly using Bolshevik and Stalinist policies to organize Russian society for war, said a prominent Russian military blogger.
"Putin is invested in constructing false historical parallels between the war in Ukraine with the Soviet Great Patriotic War," said the ISW.
"The emulation of these conditions on the highest levels of Russian government will likely continue to have domestic implications as the war continues and opens the door for increased normalization of Soviet and Stalinist practices in all branches of government."
 

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