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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (8 Viewers)

Feels like they aren't making quite as much progress as you would expect but haven't committed much. So who knows. Almost like they felt like Russia would fold up, and they haven't really yet.

Some progress seems on taking down Russia helicopters which may help or keep them from being engaged. Apparently the Russia helicopters are the most western tech equip and they can't replace crap on them. Maybe.
I think that dam collapsing wrecked a lot of contingency plans the AFU had mapped out. The Russian use of helicopters should have been planned for. It feels like Ukraine is waiting for the Russians to make a deployment error before they pounce.
My guess is that they are being cautious. Though these NATO trained brigades, even better trained and equipped than their 'legacy' units, are new and having learning curves. Certainly, even though the Ukrainians have been fighting for years (they were fighting long before the invasion) their military is still learning. This counter offensive is doing something that they have never done previously. Even their successful counter offensive last year was not nearly the same kind of operation. This is much larger against an entrenched defender with heavily prepared positions.

Rather than throw all their new units into the grinder and hope, they have been doing limited maneuvers with only a portion of their new units. I think that this benefits them in probing and testing the Russian lines but perhaps more importantly providing them a learning curve that they can learn from their mistakes without crippling their ability to continue to launch a counter offensive.

It seems the Russians are able to use their attack helicopters to much more effect than they have been able to yet in the war as the Ukrainian forces push forward and come out of their anti-air umbrella. The helos can hover low over confidently friendly territory, pop up and see further than troops with a MANPAD can, hit and get low again. This is basically the tactics that our military has developed with our attack helicopters such as the Apache and Cobra. My amateur brain is having a hard time trying to figure out how the Ukrainians can counter it effectively when their air force is still unable to be in such contested areas without unacceptably high losses.
 
There's an awful lot of other chatter happening that something big might be imminent in Russia too. Pretty much all unsubstantiated at this point, but there's a lot of different pieces out there.
 
tl;dr

Reports Russians killed a large number of Wagner troops
Reports Progozhin vowed to retaliate against the 'evil' Russian army, says he's going to Moscow with his army
Reports the Kremlin has vowed to arrest Progozhin
Reports FSB is setting up roadblocks around Moscow

Dmitri@wartranslated
One of Wagner's channels - "All military who do not support the coup will be considered collaborators who sided with Ukrainians ... It will be interesting".
 
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@PjotrSauer
The drama continues. Prigozhin publishes a video which he claims shows the aftermath of a rocket attack by the Russian ministry of defence on a Wagner camp. “Many of our guys died…We will make a decision how to respond to this evil. The next move is ours”

@PjotrSauer
Wow. Now Prigozhin says that the council of Wagner commanders have decided to deal with the military leadership of Russia adding that he will destroy everyone who appears n his way. "I ask everyone to stay calm at home, do not go outside."
 
Biggest gift the Ukrainians could hope for. I am not seeing an outcome that is not favorable to the Ukrainian position. In the very least, the Russians have no choice but to pull manpower and equipment from the frontlines with Ukraine and all the way to this leading to a total collapse of the Russian ability to wage war.

That being said.... instability to this level in a nuclear power should always be unsettling.
 
Still unconfirmed, but holy ****...

Igor Sushko@igorsushko
🚨 Unconfirmed: 50km-long Wagner PMC column has reportedly managed to enter Russia through Rostov region. Shoigu appears to have failed.
50 km long column seems extremely unlikely - even 5 km long would be something
Regardless, who is going to stop them? It isn't like Russia has a wealth of reserves not engaged in the frontlines with Ukraine.

The only thing that the Russians can send is airpower which is the one thing that seems to be holding the Ukrainians back from breaking through.
 
I hate US news media. All of it. I just went through CNN, Fox, MSNBC, etc and they all have morons yapping about crap that doesn't matter versus something that is most likely going to the change the war in Ukraine and has the potential to change the world in ways that could impact every single person's life on earth.
Yeah, barely mentioned on their web pages either
 
@NewsfeedUkraine
Russia's state TV suddenly interrupted its broadcast tonight with a message from the Russian Ministry of Defense rebutting Yevgeny Prigozhin's claims that Russia’s military leadership killed a “huge amount” of his forces in strikes.
 
In another stunning claim Friday night, Prigozhin accused Shoigu of hiding the bodies of 2,000 dead Russian soldiers in a bid to mask Russia’s true casualty numbers in Ukraine.
 
It's amazing how one Tweet get picked up and spreads without any real confirmation. Like someone tweets something big and it just takes off and you see it over and over.

Right on cue:
OSINTdefender@sentdefender
There is not a Military Base that is currently on Fire in the Moscow Region of Russia despite what some Accounts are claiming.
 
I hate US news media. All of it. I just went through CNN, Fox, MSNBC, etc and they all have morons yapping about crap that doesn't matter versus something that is most likely going to the change the war in Ukraine and has the potential to change the world in ways that could impact every single person's life on earth.
Unbelievable the coverage of our news channels. This is a huge event in the biggest issue facing our world and barely any coverage at this point.
 
Feels like they aren't making quite as much progress as you would expect but haven't committed much. So who knows. Almost like they felt like Russia would fold up, and they haven't really yet.

Some progress seems on taking down Russia helicopters which may help or keep them from being engaged. Apparently the Russia helicopters are the most western tech equip and they can't replace crap on them. Maybe.
I think that dam collapsing wrecked a lot of contingency plans the AFU had mapped out. The Russian use of helicopters should have been planned for. It feels like Ukraine is waiting for the Russians to make a deployment error before they pounce.
or a coup
 
Pretty clear that Prigozhin and Russian Officialdom have all said the things they've been reported to say. And that the Kremlin is rattled bigly.

The rest? Not so sure. Prigozhin and his troops might not even be in Russia right now. Seems like someone would have had video of his army at this point. And that there would have been shooting somewhere in the country.
 
This reminds me of Turkey a few years back where it looked like a coup might be underway, but in fact it was kind of a ruse to frame senior officers (and maybe catch high ranking officials leaning in the wrong direction). Details are fuzzy, but I don't think an implosion of the Russian state is underway, as much as I may want to see it (unintended consequences be damed).
 
This reminds me of Turkey a few years back where it looked like a coup might be underway, but in fact it was kind of a ruse to frame senior officers (and maybe catch high ranking officials leaning in the wrong direction). Details are fuzzy, but I don't think an implosion of the Russian state is underway, as much as I may want to see it (unintended consequences be damed).
The only way an implosion is NOT imminent is if one of these Russians is lying, and really, how likely is that?
 
I would imagine Wagner would have to be 100% confident they could pull this off to make a move on Moscow. In na world with AI & deepfakes I don’t believe anything anymore
 
I hate US news media. All of it. I just went through CNN, Fox, MSNBC, etc and they all have morons yapping about crap that doesn't matter versus something that is most likely going to the change the war in Ukraine and has the potential to change the world in ways that could impact every single person's life on earth.
Unbelievable the coverage of our news channels. This is a huge event in the biggest issue facing our world and barely any coverage at this point.
US media is an absolute joke. I stopped watching years ago.

When I watch now it is BBC, Europe News, Rueters etc.

US outlets isn't news. It's propaganda tailored for your political tastes packaged in mindless sound bites.

I do watch CNBC occasionally for finanical/markets news.
 
I would imagine Wagner would have to be 100% confident they could pull this off to make a move on Moscow. In na world with AI & deepfakes I don’t believe anything anymore
Not exactly.... the heat was coming on to Prigozhin. He was getting pressed pretty hard and seemingly losing power as Putin basically stepped in and said they had to be placed under military control. This could be his estimated best chance of survival... win, you rule Russia. Lose, your fate was likely the same anyways.
 
Remember, everybody in Wagner is a mercenary. Their loyalty to Progozhin is just as much in question as their loyalty to Putin or the country.
I am not questioning Wagner troop loyalty... I am questioning Russian regulars loyalty. If not to turn.... how much fight do they have in themselves to fight off Wagner for Putin?
 
Video also claiming of fighting inside Russia. This is crazy if real.


Rostov is NE of Moscow. If true, that is extremely interesting
No, Rostov on Don is south and right near Ukraine. First major Russian city near Ukraine and a huge logistic hub for Russia’s war effort.
Yes... makes more sense and just found my error before this post. Map search sucks on my phone apparently.
 

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