*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (2 Viewers)

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672706788238454786

One consequence of this deal: Wagner killed between 13 and 20 Russian soldiers today, according to pro-war Telegram channels. And they are going to get away with it completely scot free

 

[Phil Elliott]

Trusting Putin on a deal?

 

[The Z Machine]

Question: Will Prig still be able to command the Wagner troops from Belarus? Or will Wagner be disolved and all troops incorporated into the Russian military? Will they honor the "contracts" given to the convicts?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

The charges against him are dropped and he's going into exile in Belarus, with the Wager mercs signing contracts with the Russian military?

So weird.

 

[Yo Mama]

In the Tom Clancy version of this, the US/NATO come to the “rescue” of long time ally Russia in defense of their sovereignty by wiping out all Wagner troops in Russia, Ukraine, Syria, and Africa - then offer a public sarcastic “you’re welcome” to Putin afterward.

 

[massraider]

with the Wager mercs signing contracts with the Russian military?

If I was these guys, I would prefer to sell my wares to Kadyrov or Lukahsennko. I imagine reprisals by military officers would be expected.

 

[The Kerminator]

The charges against him are dropped and he's going into exile in Belarus, with the Wager mercs signing contracts with the Russian military?

So weird.

I would advise them to stick to single story buildings

 

[jamny]

It was an exciting season but the finale sucked. Not sure if I'll watch another season if there is one.

 

[Chadstroma]

The charges against him are dropped and he's going into exile in Belarus, with the Wager mercs signing contracts with the Russian military?

So weird.

Like I said before.... this was more about Prigozhin feeling like his time was running out than anything else. He just got a "get out of jail free" card that he has better chances of survival with than pressing the coup.

All that Prigozhin cares about is himself.
All that Putin cares about is staying in power.
This was the route of least resistance for both to meet their goals.

It is unfortunate that this didn't get more protracted and didn't give Ukraine more opportunity. However, this could still be the end of Putin. Russians respect power. Putin's grasp on power has been shown to be fragile. If there are Oligarchs or military that are inclined to get rid of Putin.... this may give them courage. Time will tell if it is significant enough for some sort of change or event but this absolutely loosens Putin's grasp on power.

 

[Chadstroma]

with the Wager mercs signing contracts with the Russian military?

If I was these guys, I would prefer to sell my wares to Kadyrov or Lukahsennko. I imagine reprisals by military officers would be expected.

I mean.... they will likely be treated like the conscripts with machine guns at their back and told to defend or attack.

 

[massraider]

with the Wager mercs signing contracts with the Russian military?

If I was these guys, I would prefer to sell my wares to Kadyrov or Lukahsennko. I imagine reprisals by military officers would be expected.

I mean.... they will likely be treated like the conscripts with machine guns at their back and told to defend or attack.

Right, if anyone in Russia knows how bad the Russian soldiers have it, Wagner mercs do.

why would they sign up for that?

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Kremlin unaware of Prigozhin's current whereabouts, spokesperson says

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed Saturday that he was turning his forces around from a march toward Moscow in what Russian President Putin called an "armed uprising." Follow for live updates.

www.cnn.com

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Saturday he was unaware of the current whereabouts of Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Asked during a press briefing about Prigozhin's whereabouts after he struck a deal to call off his march on Moscow and leave for Belarus, Peskov said, “No, I don’t know.”

Peskov also said he “cannot answer the question” of what position Prigozhin will take in Belarus and what he will be doing there.

A new video posted on Telegram and geolocated and confirmed by CNN showed Prigozhin leaving a Russian military headquarters in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don.

Kremlin says Prigozhin will depart for Belarus after his rebellion fizzles

Putin accused maverick warlord of risking civil war by seizing parts of Russia’s south and marching on Moscow

www.politico.eu

Given Peskov’s statement that Prigozhin will depart for Belarus, it now seems the Wagner commander has failed to to secure his core demands.

He has fulminated against incompetence and corruption in Russia’s high command for months and has accused Moscow of not giving him the support and equipment he requires. The biggest win for Prigozhin would have been Putin agreeing to remove Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu or Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov — both hate figures to the mercenary boss — but such a huge concession from the Russian president was never likely.

https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1672725305948028934?cxt=HHwWjIC2vbSz27YuAAAA

Unclear what Peskov means when he says that Prigozhin will go to Belarus. That he will work from there? Or take a flight out of Minsk? If wagnarites are now being signed with MOD in means that Prigozhin kind of failed.

Given the Kremlin, Putin, and the MoD routinely do not tell the truth in addition to Prigozhin's lack of honesty + being terrible at math, I doubt we'll get any clarity here.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1672716895550599175

This evening on the World Service @bbclysedoucet asked me why Prigozhin turned around. Didn’t have a very good answer then, and still don’t. Promises re: Shoigu/Gerasimov don’t make sense, esp given Prigozhin de facto exile. Did he realise security forces not breaking his way?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/24/putin-wagner-prigozhin-mercenaries/?itid=hp-top-table-main_p001_f004

One senior member of Russian diplomatic circles, who remains in contact with members of the Russian government, said that Prigozhin’s increasingly vocal criticism over the conduct of the war had nevertheless resonated with parts of the elite and reflected a growing divide over Putin’s war. He pointed in particular to the Wagner leader’s outburst on Friday in which, for the first time, he dismissed Putin’s main pretext for going to war, declaring that Russia faced no extraordinary security threat from Ukraine or NATO, and said Russian military officials had tricked Putin into going to war.
“For a long time, there have been different approaches [among the elite] to the conduct of the military operation and to how the economy should be managed and the political situation,” said this member of Russian diplomatic circles, speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal. “Prigozhin didn’t say anything principally new, but now these disagreements have broken out into the open and unfortunately matters have reached the stage of open conflict.”

Markov blamed the uprising on a recent government decree that all “volunteer formations,” including the Wagner Group, sign a contract with the Defense Ministry by July 1. Prigozhin had balked at that order. “If everyone had signed the contracts, then the Wagner Group would become the subordinates of the Defense Minister, and Prigozhin would lose Wagner within two months,” Markov said.

He's a pro-Kremlin commentator. Let's take it with a grain of salt. But, if we entertain this for a bit, was Prigozhin concerned about losing his payoffs from natural resources in Africa and elsewhere where Wagner operates?

Other observers said they thought it unlikely the situation would have escalated into civil war. “This is purely a settling of scores between different clans,” said a Russian billionaire, also speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal. “Civil war is always a reflection of deep social contradictions between different segments of society. This is just one boss against the other.”

Rebel Wagner Forces, Threatening March to Moscow, Abruptly Stand Down

The mercenary group had seized the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, the center of Moscow’s military operations in Ukraine, posing a grave threat to President Vladimir Putin’s government.

www.nytimes.com

How exactly Mr. Prigozhin had planned to outmuscle Russia’s sprawling security services wasn’t clear.
By late Saturday, no units within the Russian military or police appeared to have defected to Wagner, and no prominent Russian officials had expressed open support for the mercenary group. Top officials across Russia released comments supporting Mr. Putin, making the Wagner boss appear isolated.

Thread: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672743555624755200

Some early thoughts:
-More questions than answers
-Short-term compromise ≠ long-term solution
-This was a mutiny not a coup
-Too soon to say Putin will fall anytime soon
-Not clear this will affect Ukraine's offensive
-The previous Kremlin-Wagner relationship is over

 

[massraider]

Occam’s razor.

The mercenary was given a deal before he got to Moscow.

 

[Chadstroma]

with the Wager mercs signing contracts with the Russian military?

If I was these guys, I would prefer to sell my wares to Kadyrov or Lukahsennko. I imagine reprisals by military officers would be expected.

I mean.... they will likely be treated like the conscripts with machine guns at their back and told to defend or attack.

Right, if anyone in Russia knows how bad the Russian soldiers have it, Wagner mercs do.

why would they sign up for that?

What choice do they have? Their leader just surrendered.

 

[themeistersinger]

The charges against him are dropped and he's going into exile in Belarus, with the Wager mercs signing contracts with the Russian military?

So weird.

Like I said before.... this was more about Prigozhin feeling like his time was running out than anything else. He just got a "get out of jail free" card that he has better chances of survival with than pressing the coup.

All that Prigozhin cares about is himself.
All that Putin cares about is staying in power.
This was the route of least resistance for both to meet their goals.

It is unfortunate that this didn't get more protracted and didn't give Ukraine more opportunity. However, this could still be the end of Putin. Russians respect power. Putin's grasp on power has been shown to be fragile. If there are Oligarchs or military that are inclined to get rid of Putin.... this may give them courage. Time will tell if it is significant enough for some sort of change or event but this absolutely loosens Putin's grasp on power.

I don't know that this would embolden any others who might want to topple Putin. Prigozhin had the largest army at his disposal of anybody in Russia not named Putin, and his revolt fizzled. I think this does leave Putin stronger inside the Kremlin. But the further you go from Moscow, that's where the weakening will take place.

 

[massraider]

with the Wager mercs signing contracts with the Russian military?

If I was these guys, I would prefer to sell my wares to Kadyrov or Lukahsennko. I imagine reprisals by military officers would be expected.

I mean.... they will likely be treated like the conscripts with machine guns at their back and told to defend or attack.

Right, if anyone in Russia knows how bad the Russian soldiers have it, Wagner mercs do.

why would they sign up for that?

What choice do they have? Their leader just surrendered.

Just going off action movies here, but can’t mercenaries just go and work anywhere they want?

 

[Chadstroma]

with the Wager mercs signing contracts with the Russian military?

If I was these guys, I would prefer to sell my wares to Kadyrov or Lukahsennko. I imagine reprisals by military officers would be expected.

I mean.... they will likely be treated like the conscripts with machine guns at their back and told to defend or attack.

Right, if anyone in Russia knows how bad the Russian soldiers have it, Wagner mercs do.

why would they sign up for that?

What choice do they have? Their leader just surrendered.

Just going off action movies here, but can’t mercenaries just go and work anywhere they want?

When the mercenaries aren't in the middle of Russia that is engaged in a war that it desperately needs manpower for..... sure. Not sure I have seen that action movie though. Putin isn't going to let these men just walk away with a choice. They are Russians and thus they belong to him.

 

[Chadstroma]

The charges against him are dropped and he's going into exile in Belarus, with the Wager mercs signing contracts with the Russian military?

So weird.

Like I said before.... this was more about Prigozhin feeling like his time was running out than anything else. He just got a "get out of jail free" card that he has better chances of survival with than pressing the coup.

All that Prigozhin cares about is himself.
All that Putin cares about is staying in power.
This was the route of least resistance for both to meet their goals.

It is unfortunate that this didn't get more protracted and didn't give Ukraine more opportunity. However, this could still be the end of Putin. Russians respect power. Putin's grasp on power has been shown to be fragile. If there are Oligarchs or military that are inclined to get rid of Putin.... this may give them courage. Time will tell if it is significant enough for some sort of change or event but this absolutely loosens Putin's grasp on power.

I don't know that this would embolden any others who might want to topple Putin. Prigozhin had the largest army at his disposal of anybody in Russia not named Putin, and his revolt fizzled. I think this does leave Putin stronger inside the Kremlin. But the further you go from Moscow, that's where the weakening will take place.

It is about the perception of power. Gorbachev resigned months after the failed coup. Russia, since the days of the Rus Vikings, have always been about a strong man leader.

Also, you can bet that there was "well, who do we support?" conversations with all of this that would have never happened otherwise.... someone who is thinking he wants Putin gone may have just found more like minded people than he thought before.

It may not be anything but it certainly is only possible for this to go against Putin or be neutral. It is not a positive in any way.

 

[thecatch]

Putin had a close call but apparently just neutered his biggest critic and effectively disbanded said critic’s private army. Seems like Putin had a pretty good day all things considered.

 

[Runkle]

Prigozhin was never going to succeed, he's bald too. Next guy has to have a full head of hair.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/24/us-intelligence-prigozhin-putin/

The instability that might result from a Russian “civil war” was the key fear, officials said. In addition to the White House, senior officials at the Pentagon, State Department and in Congress were briefed within the past two weeks on the intelligence, officials said.

A key trigger for Prigozhin, officials said, was a June 10 Russian Defense Ministry order that all volunteer detachments would have to sign contracts with the government. Though the order did not mention Wagner Group by name, the implication was clear: a takeover of Prigozhin’s mercenary troops, who have proved essential to Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine and have helped secure some of its most notable tactical victories.
Ukrainian military officials also were watching Prigozhin after the June 10 announcement and increasingly believed that he might mobilize his forces against Moscow, said a senior Ukrainian official. Prigozhin had publicly protested the Defense Ministry’s order, and Ukrainian officials took seriously the possibility that he might move against Russian positions, this person said.

But the timing of a move was unclear, the Ukrainian official said, adding that he was not aware of the U.S. sharing its intelligence with Kyiv on a possible march by Prigozhin and his forces.

U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Putin also was informed that Prigozhin was plotting something. And though it is not clear precisely when he was told, it was “definitely more than 24 hours ago,” the first U.S. official said.
It remains unclear why Putin did not take action to thwart Prigozhin’s takeover of the military command or his move on Moscow. The Wagner chief got to within 120 miles of the capital before he turned around after striking a deal, brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a Putin ally. The deal calls for dropping criminal charges against Prigozhin, lodged on Friday after he accused Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of ordering an attack on his mercenaries and issued a call to “put an end” to the minister’s leadership.
Putin’s inaction reflected a lack of high-level coordination in the Russian government and likely internal rivalries, U.S. officials surmise.

“If Prigozhin intended to drive a wedge between the command of Russian Federation Armed Forces and the Kremlin he failed,” said the senior Western official, meaning that the 24-hour rebellion does not appear, for now, to have triggered a broader rupture between Putin’s inner circle and the military leaders Prigozhin detests.

Intelligence analysts are watching to see what comes next. Though Prigozhin has stood down, Putin will certainly be seen as weakened, officials said. Images of Wagner tanks rolling along the Russian M4 highway toward Moscow appeared on social media, and Putin made a televised speech to the nation Saturday saying there had been an “armed insurrection,” and accused Prigozhin of betraying Russia without mentioning him by name.

Members of the Russian elite will question his leadership, asking how he could have let this happen and why he didn’t stop it earlier, officials say. “This probably has given ordinary Russians a scare,” the first U.S. official said.
As for Prigozhin, the Kremlin said Saturday that he was going to Belarus as part of the deal worked out by Lukashenko. His future beyond that is unclear. He has a solid core of loyal troops, and many of those who fought and died in Ukraine were convicts who hoped to win freedom by going to battle.
Officials said they were sure he’d still be seen as the leader of Wagner.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

US has not seen a change in Russia's nuclear posture during insurrection, two officials say

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed Saturday that he was turning his forces around from a march toward Moscow in what Russian President Putin called an "armed uprising." Follow for live updates.

www.cnn.com

The United States has not seen a change to Russia's nuclear posture since Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin began his insurrection challenging the Kremlin's leadership, two US officials told CNN.

What's next for Wagner fighters?

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed Saturday that he was turning his forces around from a march toward Moscow in what Russian President Putin called an "armed uprising." Follow for live updates.

www.cnn.com

A retired major in the the US Army said there are many questions to be asked about the future facing Wagner fighters after their short-lived uprising.

"They're an independent fighting company. They were given better rations. They dressed differently," said Major Mike Lyons (Ret.) US Army.

"I don't think they'll be easily assimilated into the Russian military and sent back to the front there. So I think there is going to be an issue."

He added: "Maybe some will splinter off. Maybe some will decide to defect and provide information to Ukraine. Those people are loyal to the man, Prigozhin, not to the country, not to the mission. I think we've got a lot more questions that are not answered right now."

Putin "has suffered a mortal blow," says retired US Army general

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed Saturday that he was turning his forces around from a march toward Moscow in what Russian President Putin called an "armed uprising." Follow for live updates.

www.cnn.com

Russian President Vladimir Putin has suffered "a mortal blow," according to a retired US general, despite the apparent deal that will see Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin leave for Belarus.

"There are two existential fights going on in this Russia-Ukraine war," said retired US Army Brig. Gen. Peter Zwack.

"One is the viability of the survival, the existence, of a free-minded Ukrainian state. The other is inside the Kremlin and the viability of the Putin regime."

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1672808850964070403

Prigozhin overplayed his hand and eventually realised it. He would have been stopped before he got to Moscow region. He wasn’t significantly engaged on the way - he avoided major garrisons. The deal avoided an inevitable bloody clash.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1672815991787515905

If you think he would have been allowed to walk into Moscow you are much mistaken. They were gearing up to defend north of Tula. Ukrainian military intelligence sources I spoke to multiple times yesterday all believed he would be severely downgraded at that stage.

One theory: https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672798370975342596

Fascinating essay by analyst @baunov who argues that military failures in Ukraine have turbo-charged anti-elite sentiment inside Russia, fueling demands for the USSR 3.0, forcing Putin into a vulnerable position of defending the elites & market economy.

Prigozhin was allowed to trash the elite for so long because of his usefulness on the battlefield and as a frightening reminder to the elites what awaits them without Putin. But Prigozhin had his own plans, it turns out.

Baunov says that Prigozhin's goal after starting the armed insurrection became to win emergency powers from Putin without formally removing him from office: to replace him, not merely displace him (Putin is too sacred actually to remove).

Baunov says Prigozhin's long interview on the eve of the insurrection where he trashed the invasion's planning and rationale was actually an offer to Putin to "march" with him and pin it all on Shoigu and other elites. Putin didn't take the deal.

https://twitter.com/DrRadchenko/status/1672826611635306496

Let's see where we are with Prigozhin. Yesterday I highlighted 3 possibilities: that Prigozhin wins (unlikely); that he uses Rostov or similar as a regional base and Russia falls into a civil war (less than even), and that he is defeated outright (fair).

It seems that what happened is No. 3, though with nuance. It appears that Prigozhin decided to back down. Why is anyone's guess. If I were to venture a guess, he had not expected Putin to come down so hard against him (takes a certain amount of self-delusion).

When Putin did, he realised that he had lost. Wagner, though well trained and equipped, could not take on the entire Russian army, and the security services, and the National Guard, all of which were lined up against Prigozhin and his troops.

So it seems that he has backed down, effectively betraying his troops. Wagner, judging by preliminary reports, is to be disbanded (as it was planned initially - by July 1), which is the outcome that Prigozhin seems to have tried to avert by his daring raid.

The bigger picture. Regardless of the outcome, it looks bad for Putin. Instead of coming down hard on Prigozhin after the "happy grandpa" episode and so showing who is the boss, he allowed an underling to humiliate his military establishment and himself by extension.

His authority has been undermined. Morale in the army has been undermined. Even if he gets to keep Shoigu and Gerasimov (let's see what happens here), he seems weak. If he lets them go (as Prigozhin demanded), well, then he looks even weaker.

So it's a pyrrhic victory for Putin.

Putin’s War on Ukraine Backfires, Leading to Wagner Uprising at Home

The invasion meant to achieve regime change in Kyiv now threatens the regime in Russia.

www.wsj.com

“The hopes of a part of the Russian elite, including, apparently, the president himself, that a long war is beneficial for Russia…are a dangerous illusion,” said Ruslan Pukhov, director of Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a military-affairs think-tank. “Prolongation of the war carries huge domestic political risks for the Russian Federation.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Institute for the Study of War

The Kremlin announced late on June 24 that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko negotiated a deal under which Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin will travel to Belarus without facing criminal charges in Russia; some portion of Wagner Group

www.understandingwar.org

Prigozhin likely gambled that his only avenue to retain Wagner Group as an independent force was to march against the Russian MoD, likely intending to secure defections in the Russian military but overestimating his own prospects. Prigozhin likely viewed the MoD’s July 1 deadline to formalize control over all irregular formations, including Wagner, as an existential threat to his political (and possibly personal) survival. He likely therefore elected to risk using his forces in a bid to change the MoD’s leadership rather than lose Wagner Group entirely, and as ISW assessed on June 23, his only real hope for lasting success was to secure MoD defections, and he did not do so.[33] Prigozhin almost certainly planned this effort in advance due to the observed coordination and speed of Wagner movements, but ISW cannot confirm this hypothesis from the open source.

Prigozhin’s rebellion further eroded his existing support base in the ultranationalist community, Russian government, and within elements of Wagner Group itself. Prigozhin’s armed rebellion likely further eroded existing support for Wagner by forcing Wagner-affiliated regional authorities and recruitment organizations to denounce Prigozhin‘s effort. Kursk Oblast Governor Roman Starovoyt called on Prigozhin to stop his plans and to prevent an internal conflict.[34] Starovoyt acknowledged that Kursk Oblast previously cooperated with Wagner to train personnel for local militias.[35] ”Union of Donbas Volunteers” Head Alexander Borodai also denounced Wagner’s armed rebellion as a stab in the back against Russia.[36] Prigozhin has likely previously relied on the ”Union of Donbas Volunteers” to access the Russian ultranationalist community’s recruitment pool.[37] Prigozhin also likely angered many Wagner personnel and Wagner-sympathetic ultranationalists by not following through with his attempted march on Moscow. A Wagner-affiliated milblogger claimed that Wagner prepared for the march on Moscow in advance and intended to provoke the evacuation of top officials and leadership from the city.[38] The milblogger decried that Prigozhin,” a politician with dubious prospects,” destroyed the whole effort.[39] The notable criticism of Prigozhin from a Wagner-affiliated milblogger is likely reflective of widespread discontent among the pro-Wagner information space that previously applauded the rebellion.[40] One prominent Russian milblogger noted that many Russian milbloggers who have supported Wagner in the past ignored the rebellion or made neutral statements about it.[41] The alleged agreement that Prigozhin reached with Lukashenko and the Kremlin is likely to upset Wagner personnel as it represents the end of Prigozhin’s effort to insulate Wagner from subordination to the MoD. It is unclear at this time if Prigozhin secured buy-in from Wagner commanders or rank-and-file personnel before making the alleged agreement, and many Wagner personnel will likely be displeased with the potential of signing contracts with the MoD, demobilizing, or deploying away from Ukraine

 

[Orange&Blue]

"So it seems that he has backed down, effectively betraying his troops. Wagner, judging by preliminary reports, is to be disbanded (as it was planned initially - by July 1), which is the outcome that Prigozhin seems to have tried to avert by his daring raid"

how did he betray them if Wagner was going to get destroyed if he didn't back down?

 

[The Kerminator]

I think that's an important question. Do his troops feel betrayed? If he still has their loyalty I think it's going to put Ukraine in a war on two fronts. Lukashenko was scared to attack because of no support from his people. But Wagner doesn't seem to be afraid and garnered plenty of Russian people's support. Belarus is only 100 km from Kiev I believe. If Wagner is still a viable group it could be bad news for Ukraine.

 

[The Z Machine]

If Wagner mercs invade from Belarus, even if Belarusian regulars are not involved, that will implicate Belarus in this invasion. Last year during the initial invasion and push to Kiev, did RUS forces invade across the Belarusian-Ukraine border or only from RUS border?

 

[Desert_Power]

If Wagner mercs invade from Belarus, even if Belarusian regulars are not involved, that will implicate Belarus in this invasion. Last year during the initial invasion and push to Kiev, did RUS forces invade across the Belarusian-Ukraine border or only from RUS border?

Yes. The entire push to Kyiv came from Belarus.

 

[The Z Machine]

If Wagner mercs invade from Belarus, even if Belarusian regulars are not involved, that will implicate Belarus in this invasion. Last year during the initial invasion and push to Kiev, did RUS forces invade across the Belarusian-Ukraine border or only from RUS border?

Yes. The entire push to Kyiv came from Belarus.

So the Wagner mercs could reconstitute in Belarus and try for another push to Kiev from there? I'm assuming there would be ample warning that this is happening and thus the path from Belarus to Kiev would be heavily protected. Would distract from the offensive operations in the south and east though.

 

[themeistersinger]

Aborted mercenary uprising in Russia shows 'serious cracks' in Putin's power: Blinken

Antony Blinken Sunday said the aborted Wagner rebellion against Vladimir Putin shows the depths of disagreements over his decision to invade Ukraine last year

abcnews.go.com

 

[themeistersinger]

If Wagner mercs invade from Belarus, even if Belarusian regulars are not involved, that will implicate Belarus in this invasion. Last year during the initial invasion and push to Kiev, did RUS forces invade across the Belarusian-Ukraine border or only from RUS border?

Yes. The entire push to Kyiv came from Belarus.

So the Wagner mercs could reconstitute in Belarus and try for another push to Kiev from there? I'm assuming there would be ample warning that this is happening and thus the path from Belarus to Kiev would be heavily protected. Would distract from the offensive operations in the south and east though.

I highly doubt Lukashenko would allow lots of Wagner guys to come into his country. They already tried to overthrow a much stronger Putin - if they all showed up in Belarus they'd be very likely to try it there. And Lukashenko's hold on power is more tenuous than Putin's (even after this episode).

There has always been a threat of attack from Belarus - Russia has sent troops there for a while. So Ukraine does have units there to defend against a potential attack.

 

[themeistersinger]

Footage of yesterday's battalion vs battalion combat of the 1st Mech Battalion (3 Assault Br) vs 3rd Battalion (57th Guards).

As a result of the assault, the bridgehead on the western bank of the Siversky Donets - Donbas canal was completely cleared.

During the operation, 30 occupiers were eliminated, as well as dozens of wounded. 10 POWs were added to the exchange fund.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672939251598589953?cxt=HHwWgoC85dfYvLcuAAAA

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Access Restricted

Russian convict fighters who had expressed support for Yevgeny Prigozhin and his armed coup on Saturday have accused him of “walking off” after he struck a deal with President Vladimir Putin.

Recruits of a Storm Z unit, a Russian military unit made up of convicts, stood in combat uniform holding assault rifles as one addressed Prigozhin and said he was “not a man” after he called off the mutiny.

“Rumours say you walked off, lied to all the lads. The whole of Storm Z was ready to stand behind you, and not only Storm Z, your guys also. But you walked off,” he added.

In the terms of the deal, Prigozhin has said he will relocate to Belarus.

Another soldier said: “You spoke beautifully, we supported you. And now what?”

Putin’s Weakness Unmasked

How Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed the Russian President.

www.newyorker.com

When I asked Zygar what was the most striking aspect of the uprising, he said, “Putin is weaker. I have the feeling he is not really running the country. Certainly, not the way he once did. He is still President, but all the different clans”—the factions within the government, the military, and, most important, the security services—“now have the feeling that ‘Russia after Putin’ is getting closer. Putin is still alive. He is still there in his bunker. But there is the growing feeling that he is a lame duck, and they have to prepare for Russia after Putin.”

In ideological terms, Zygar said, “Prigozhin combines two ideas. The first is anti-corruption and anti-oligarch. Despite his own wealth, which is immense, he always portrayed himself as the oligarch-fighter. At the same time, he is super illiberal. He hates the West, and he claims to be the real protector of traditional values. He probably has more supporters beyond the Wagner Group; there are people in the Army, the F.S.B., the Interior Ministry, who could be his ideological allies.”

Ironically, Prigozhin learned to out-Putin Putin. In the early days of his reign, Putin was known in the West mainly for his background in the K.G.B. But his popular appeal also had to do with his ability to exploit the street swagger and the language of his days as a kid who played and fought in the poorer courtyards of his home town. Putin was not afraid to make cutting jokes or use profanity in public appearances. He promised to kill enemies in their “outhouses.” This distinguished him, back then, as a man close to ground, close to the narod, the people. But, as Putin has grown more distant and preposterously wealthy, Prigozhin, often dressed in full battle gear and strutting before the cameras next to his troops in front-line Ukrainian cities like Bakhmut, has taken on the populist mantle.

The confrontation between Putin and Prigozhin is also a clash of propagandists. Putin has the full-throated support of such well-known TV commentators as Dmitry Kiselyov and Margarita Simonyan, who have grown rich and famous as the President’s mouthpieces. Prigozhin has at least the tacit support of a new breed. “The most important propagandists now are not the propagandists on state TV,” Zygar told me, “they are the so-called war correspondents on Telegram, former military officers turned bloggers. They pose themselves as representatives of some ‘true Russia.’ They are careful, but they do not denounce Prigozhin.”

There is every possibility that Putin will, at least in the short term, muster the loyalties he needs to eliminate Prigozhin from the picture. However, that does not mean that Putin can be serene about his position in the long term: “Before this rebellion, there were a lot of rumors and theories about different clans supporting Prigozhin. There were rumors that he was supported by siloviki [security-service figures] in business like Igor Sechin [the C.E.O. of the energy conglomerate Rosneft and a former Deputy Prime Minister] and Sergey Chemezov [the C.E.O. of the state-owned defense conglomerate, Rostec].”

Zygar went on, “The F.S.B. [a successor to the K.G.B.] and G.R.U. [military intelligence] is not a single clan; it is a mixture of different clans, and we will see how they are going to react. For years, Putin has selected his inner circle with only one criterion: a lack of ambition. They are not the best of the best. They are the worst of the worst. So how will such mediocrities face up to one desperately brave person, or a desperately brave group of terrorists? We will see.”

Another analysis here from a different Russian observer: https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/1672991911538196482

Another thread: https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1672999622032195584

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Another analysis here from a different Russian observer: https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/1672991911538196482

Another thread: https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1672999622032195584

Thanks for posting these.

 

[themeistersinger]

This is a good descriptive post by Khodakovsky. The rift that occurred in Russia after the invasion failed to achieve its main goal has formalised yesterday and the tensions between the two camps will continue. Prigozhin, who has been posting comments and audio messages several times a day for the past few months has gone completely silent since he announced the withdrawal of Wagner. As Khodakovsky says, things will never be the same again.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672916642601349121?cxt=HHwWgsC90dW0srcuAAAA

 

[themeistersinger]

It was rather curious following the opinions of public Russian personas yesterday while the events around Wagner unfolded. Those who are naturally close to Kremlin - various military reporters with millions of followers who recently attended a meeting with Putin, they rallied around the president.

But others appeared much more emotional. Many had wild mood swings, they genuinely believed something was about to happen, and in one way or another put their bets on Prigozhin. With the ending being so anticlimactic, I wonder how many are now finding themselves in a battle to recover their image.

This is the first time I've seen so many calls and prayers to God to help Russians in this situation. They were on the edge. It could have ended very, very badly. My impression is that Lukashenka literally saved Putin's life by convincing Prigozhin that going after him would lead to a disaster for both Kremlin and Minsk regimes.

I think that many will be left with an unpleasant aftertaste. The situation around the shot-down aircraft will be a heavy anchor going forward. And the lack of public statements is indicative of the struggles each side is facing.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672911437679796224?cxt=HHwWgIC9-dmFsLcuAAAA

 

[themeistersinger]

Convicts from Storm Z unit who voiced support for Prigozhin's march yesterday recorded another address to Prigozhin accusing him of backing down. While they use a lot of convict speak and look convincing, it may not be sensible to reveal themselves like that.Regardless, such sentiment is not uncommon in the Russian forces after Prigozhin stopped without reaching Moscow.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672898587414482944?cxt=HHwWgMC-gdyZqrcuAAAA

 

[themeistersinger]

Civilians chanting "Shame!" and "Traitors!" at the police units which arrived back in Rostov after Wagner units withdrew.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672737054973739010?cxt=HHwWhIC-xaXf4LYuAAAA

 

[themeistersinger]

1/ QUICK THREAD highlighting the questions raised by many in Russia about the events of the past 48 hours. Clearly, lots of confusion and "wtf"-type comments about the state, the military and Wagner. A few highlights below from "Two Majors" pro-Kremlin Telegram channel.

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1672962911243730946?cxt=HHwWhICw8e25x7cuAAAA

 

[themeistersinger]

After heroically doing nothing to suppress Prigozhin's mutiny yesterday, Kadyrov's Chechen special forces are going back to heroically not fight in the invasion of Ukraine

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672898376457768961?cxt=HHwWgsC-obiNqrcuAAAA

 

[themeistersinger]

My thoughts, and brief summary on the situation:

The recent events have sparked contemplation on whether Prigozhin will endure the aftermath or succumb to its consequences. However, there is no doubt that this rebellion carries far-reaching implications.

From both external and internal perspectives, Putin's image has weakened, reminiscent of the Japanese emperor during the Sengoku period. Similar to a symbolic figure, the emperor held nominal power while warring samurai clans vied for control over Japan.

Though Putin still wields undeniable power, it is evident that he has lost control over the situation, resulting in a significant crack in his perceived ability to exert authority and manage internal affairs. Additionally, Putin had to rely on the intervention of a foreign leader (Belarus) to resolve the internal conflict.

These events highlight the potential use of military force against Putin's government as a means to coerce acceptance of terms, although the details of the arrangement between Prigozhin and Putin-Lukashenko remain undisclosed. If a replacement occurs within the top military command, it would only reinforce such behavior.

Furthermore, this upheaval exposes the inherent weakness within the system itself. Numerous senior officers responsible for decision-making chose to abstain from issuing orders or making decisive moves, opting to wait for the outcome.

The relatively swift movement of Wagner forces from Ukraine to Moscow within a span of less than a day, coupled with the chaotic attempts to destroy bridges and hastily dig ditches near Moscow, have laid bare the unpreparedness of the system to face a genuine threat.

It has been intriguing to witness the involvement of various groups, including the Club of Angered Patriots led by Strelkov, the Rusich neo-Nazi military unit, and the Kadyrovites, aligning themselves with different factions within the conflict. This development reveals a landscape that hints at the potential for a future civil war,

While the immediate repercussions of the current events will become apparent in the coming weeks, it is crucial to recognize that we are merely at the inception of something far more significant. The unfolding situation carries profound implications that extend beyond the present moment.

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1672682134341861376

 

[themeistersinger]

Switching back to eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian counterbattery fire continues to be extremely effective.In the center of Donetsk city, Ukrainian forces from the 110th Mechanized Brigade hit a trio of Russian Bm-21 Grads with drone-spotted counterbattery fire.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672769200325107728?cxt=HHwWoIC9ibOu77YuAAAA

 

[themeistersinger]

Some thoughts on the last couple of days in Russia and Ukraine

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1672944693896781825?cxt=HHwWgoC9ibyVv7cuAAAA

 

[themeistersinger]

To show there are no hard feels, have asked Lukashenka to give Prigozhin an office with a view and a large window.

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1672908792315486211

 

[themeistersinger]

Russian propagandist is rattled by Russia's vulnerabilities exposed by Prigozhin's attempted coup

www.youtube.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Top Russian propagandist talks about the mutiny

www.youtube.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Putin Is Caught in His Own Trap

After spending years cultivating public apathy, the Russian president found his people indifferent to his fate.

www.theatlantic.com

I have to believe that residents of Rostov will be seeing many visits from the FSB

 

[themeistersinger]

Weekend Update #34

Prigozhin's Mutiny and Putin's Weakness, Ukrainians Return to What they Do Best

phillipspobrien.substack.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Tonight on Vladimir Solovyov’s show, Russian MP Andrei Gurulyov says Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin should be executed"There’s no other option," he adds

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1673025924512481281?cxt=HHwWgoCwqduN5LcuAAAA

 

[themeistersinger]

Andrey Kartapolov claiming that Wagner "didn't offend anyone" and "didn't break anything" - despite the fact they just shot down six RuAF helicopters and one aircraft - killing 13 aircrew.

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1673019580845895681?cxt=HHwWgsC9qbuc4bcuAAAA

“They didn’t offend anyone, they didn’t break anything,” Andrey Kartapolov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense. However, he emphasized the need for regulation of PMCs 1/

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1672993177437913089

 

[themeistersinger]

Imagine if the CEO of Blackwater publicly declared his intention to march on Washington D.C., shot down multiple USAF aircraft and killed an unknown number of American soldiers, and then was given legal immunity and allowed to maintain his huge private army by the President.

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1672672550005145600?cxt=HHwWgIDUic60w7YuAAAA