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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (6 Viewers)

Not sure whom exactly Girkin is quoting in this telegram post, perhaps his friend, but the friend adds that the Russian airforce was too scared to attack Wagners even after they took down several aircraft. He also says that in at least one area in Rogachevka there was a proper battle between Rus. army and Wagners (there is some video evidence of that from 1-2 days ago). Overall a very damning account of Wagner.
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Ministry of Pain said:
And just like magic there's a potential overthrow by a highly trained mercenary group and in a matter of hours there is a plan by an outside country to take them in
(That sounds likely and reasonable, sure)

So now this highly trained specialized group is going to be welcomed into Belarus which runs right along the northern border of Ukraine
I'd be very leery to listen to much coming out of the major news networks on this story, would seem to be very flimsy without a lot of concrete intelligence behind it.
Click to expand...
Sometimes a duck is just a duck and not a swan trying to look like a duck.
 
Details start emerging about Prigozhin and his true nature from his enemies. Now Khodakovsky is carefully criticising Prigozhin for calling the Russian army the "Pig Army" and giving the general corresponding chevrons. Prigo apparently also demanded 1000 convicts per day to replenish his forces at the peak, where only 300 was possible, and had a Russian officer unable to provide this beaten severely. I think everyone remembers the kidnapped commander of the 72nd Brigade, too?https://t.me/aleksandr_skif/2748
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Russian terrorist Guzenko "13th" says the Russian company that was pulled from the area of Antonovsky Bridge (where Ukrainians are getting a foothold now) was destroyed by a Ukrainian surprise attack in another location. He says the company lost most of its equipment in the flood and was not prepared for combat. Result: 24 people remained alive from the whole company.Guzenko's words should be taken with a grain of salt, however.
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themeistersinger said:
www.thedailybeast.com

Russian State TV Anchors Aghast That Putin Didn’t Kill Prigozhin

The Kremlin’s propagandists praised Putin but were dumbfounded that he allowed the Wagner boss and his mercenaries to escape punishment.
www.thedailybeast.com www.thedailybeast.com
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I think it is hard for most Americans to understand the Russian worldview. I am far from an expert but spent some significant time studying Russia starting in High School to preparing for a trip to Moscow and afterwards as a history nerd with special interest in military history.

Russian value strength. Pure, raw strength. They are perfectly ok with the chance of randomly dying tomorrow in some communist purge from a deranged leader as long as that leader is strong.

Putin is coming off extremely weak in all of this. Not only because this happened in the first place but preceding that the failure in Ukraine and then in the aftermath of agreeing to a deal that let's the leader go to Belarus and the troops to have no consequences at all. Furthermore is that Putin seems to continue to appear weak and in hiding. Unless I missed on, he has done one appearance from when this started to even now. Though the Kremlin denies it, it is widely believed that he fled Moscow. If the Russian populace believes he left Moscow amongst all of this- he might as well resign today, collect all his hidden wealth and go live in exile because he may very well end up dead in the not too distant future in another armed revolt.
 
Chadstroma said:
Ministry of Pain said:
And just like magic there's a potential overthrow by a highly trained mercenary group and in a matter of hours there is a plan by an outside country to take them in
(That sounds likely and reasonable, sure)

So now this highly trained specialized group is going to be welcomed into Belarus which runs right along the northern border of Ukraine
I'd be very leery to listen to much coming out of the major news networks on this story, would seem to be very flimsy without a lot of concrete intelligence behind it.
Click to expand...
Sometimes a duck is just a duck and not a swan trying to look like a duck.
Click to expand...
One can always just say the opposite could happen but this isn't a normal duck, you can understand that right?
If it were one of the 143 Million citizens in Russia I might understand where you are coming from but to put such a high figure and say "Duck is a Duck"
Really? If you are trying to be funny, the laugh is on me I guess.

And I like you Chad, it's not personal but it's unfathomable to make that analogy when you are dealing with Russia and Putin IMHO...again maybe you were just trying to lighten things up
🤷‍♂️

-Just to be transparent with you, I have accepted that Russia is going to detonate a nuclear weapon of some size in the Ukraine. I know many will think that's bizarre but you don't have to take my word for it, POTUS himself said the threat was "REAL" on NBC a couple days back. People can continue to deny the threat or just pretend it won't happen but when or if it does, it's the respons by the international community that has me shaking my head because I think just like the commercial airplanes Russia has shot down with no consequences in the last many decades, it will go largely without any punishment or consequences other than maybe sanctions. I just don't see Russia being wiped off the map just because they go thru with unleashing a nuke in the Ukraine, and spare us the word "tactical" because it just sugarcoats what is taking place.

I'm in the minority on this, probably for the best, but I have accepted that I am going to witness one being detonated in combat by a foreign country in my lifetime.
A lot of folks think any country that launches or detonates a nuclear weapon will be bombed off the face of the earth by the next day, I find that hard to believe with the leaders we see not just here but abroad. I think they would just shake their fists and threaten some action but nothing major would happen. And it's not a GOP/DNC thing, it's just the leaders as a whole in this country, collectively, ALL of THEM

Cheers Chad!
 
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themeistersinger said:
Maybe the most unexpected development since 24 Feb 2022 has been that it has been European states that are driving the course of aid to Ukraine. Be it MBTs, Longer range missiles and now F-16s, its been Europeans pushing and the US (sometimes reluctantly) forced to pay catch up.
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Click to expand...
Not that unexpected. The EU has the most to lose if Russia starts absorbing former USSR republics on its borders. Estonia has had remarkable growth since the early 90s. Poland is a vibrant and thriving democracy with a strong economy. They do not want to go to that side of the curtain again.
 
The Z Machine said:
themeistersinger said:
Maybe the most unexpected development since 24 Feb 2022 has been that it has been European states that are driving the course of aid to Ukraine. Be it MBTs, Longer range missiles and now F-16s, its been Europeans pushing and the US (sometimes reluctantly) forced to pay catch up.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Not that unexpected. The EU has the most to lose if Russia starts absorbing former USSR republics on its borders. Estonia has had remarkable growth since the early 90s. Poland is a vibrant and thriving democracy with a strong economy. They do not want to go to that side of the curtain again.
Click to expand...
The countries bordering Russia like Poland and the Baltics have been all-in from the beginning. It's the Western Europeans who were looking at their shoes in the early part of the war. But lately, UK (missiles), Netherlands (F-16), Germany (tanks and anti-aircraft) have been sending a lot more, while the US is very reluctant to send anything more powerful than the HIMARS already sent.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Chadstroma said:
Ministry of Pain said:
And just like magic there's a potential overthrow by a highly trained mercenary group and in a matter of hours there is a plan by an outside country to take them in
(That sounds likely and reasonable, sure)

So now this highly trained specialized group is going to be welcomed into Belarus which runs right along the northern border of Ukraine
I'd be very leery to listen to much coming out of the major news networks on this story, would seem to be very flimsy without a lot of concrete intelligence behind it.
Click to expand...
Sometimes a duck is just a duck and not a swan trying to look like a duck.
Click to expand...
One can always just say the opposite could happen but this isn't a normal duck, you can understand that right?
If it were one of the 143 Million citizens in Russia I might understand where you are coming from but to put such a high figure and say "Duck is a Duck"
Really? Can you not see how shortsighted that kind of statement is? If you are trying to be funny, the laugh is on me I guess.

And I like you Chad, it's not personal but it's unfathomable to make that analogy when you are dealing with Russia and Putin IMHO...again maybe you were just trying to lighten things up
🤷‍♂️

-Just to be transparent with you, I have accepted that Russia is going to detonate a nuclear weapon of some size in the Ukraine. I know many will think that's bizarre but you don't have to take my word for it, POTUS himself said the threat was "REAL" on NBC a couple days back. People can continue to deny the threat or just pretend it won't happen but when or if it does, it's the respons by the international community that has me shaking my head because I think just like the commercial airplanes Russia has shot down with no consequences in the last many decades, it will go largely without any punishment or consequences other than maybe sanctions. I just don't see Russia being wiped off the map just because they go thru with unleashing a nuke in the Ukraine, and spare us the word "tactical" because it just sugarcoats what is taking place.

I'm in the minority on this, probably for the best, but I have accepted that I am going to witness one being detonated in combat by a foreign country in my lifetime.
A lot of folks think any country that launches or detonates a nuclear weapon will be bombed off the face of the earth by the next day, I find that hard to believe with the leaders we see not just here but abroad. I think they would just shake their fists and threaten some action but nothing major would happen. And it's not a GOP/DNC thing, it's just the leaders as a whole in this country, collectively, ALL of THEM

Cheers Chad!
Click to expand...
I am not sure where you are taking such big swings at things and then reply that any other perspective is being shortsighted.

Putin using any nuclear weapons would be absolutely moronic.
1st- He would lose the only real support right now that matter which is China. Where China goes, so does N. Korea. Sure, Iran and some lesser countries would likely stick by him but the only real country that matters is China. It will not support China if they used nukes.
2nd- NATO would launch a conventional assault on all of Russian military worldwide, included PMC's like Wagner. It would wipe any conventional threat off the table within a matter of weeks and completely destroy Russia's ability to make war.
3rd- Russia would lose it's perm seat on the UN security council forever, severely limiting Russia's diplomatic muscle forever.
4th- It would achieve absolutely nothing in terms of military objectives. Russian forces in Ukraine are barely adequately equipped as is. They are not equipped or trained to operate in a nuclear warzone. If they use it then there is no way to take advantage of that use. If they attempted to do so, the units used would quickly become combat ineffective and wasted.
5th- Putin, even more now, has to wonder how much control he really has. Is ordering a nuclear strike going to be the last straw for the military for them to turn on him?

Any 'use' of nukes would be a false flag operation of sabotaging a nuclear plant and blaming it on Ukraine similar to the recent dam destruction. I place the chances of this happening as being very unlikely. Actual use of nuclear weapons is only slightly more risk than there was previous to the Ukrainian invasion.

Nothing personal taken or given.
 
themeistersinger said:
The Z Machine said:
themeistersinger said:
Maybe the most unexpected development since 24 Feb 2022 has been that it has been European states that are driving the course of aid to Ukraine. Be it MBTs, Longer range missiles and now F-16s, its been Europeans pushing and the US (sometimes reluctantly) forced to pay catch up.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Not that unexpected. The EU has the most to lose if Russia starts absorbing former USSR republics on its borders. Estonia has had remarkable growth since the early 90s. Poland is a vibrant and thriving democracy with a strong economy. They do not want to go to that side of the curtain again.
Click to expand...
The countries bordering Russia like Poland and the Baltics have been all-in from the beginning. It's the Western Europeans who were looking at their shoes in the early part of the war. But lately, UK (missiles), Netherlands (F-16), Germany (tanks and anti-aircraft) have been sending a lot more, while the US is very reluctant to send anything more powerful than the HIMARS already sent.
Click to expand...
UK has and is been a leading supporter of Ukraine since the start. Poland and the Baltics have the most fear of Russia (understandably in perspective of history and geography). The UK has supported Ukraine more than any other single nation except the US. I would venture a guess that as part of GDP percentage, UK's commitment outstrips the US (but I don't know that for sure.... I would do the math later but don't feel like it).

Germany and France, by size of economies, have not been as committed.However, under the EU, there has been massive support which amounts to roughly half of that of the US. That would largely be driven by French and German economic might. France, particularly is lacking in support among it's peers as shown by Norway has provided more support than they have. Even though the German military has been under weight for decades- it has provided the 4th most direct military support, roughly equal to that of the EU as a whole and only surpased by the US and UK.

(support being financial, humanitarian and military expressed in Euros)
 
Chadstroma said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Chadstroma said:
Ministry of Pain said:
And just like magic there's a potential overthrow by a highly trained mercenary group and in a matter of hours there is a plan by an outside country to take them in
(That sounds likely and reasonable, sure)

So now this highly trained specialized group is going to be welcomed into Belarus which runs right along the northern border of Ukraine
I'd be very leery to listen to much coming out of the major news networks on this story, would seem to be very flimsy without a lot of concrete intelligence behind it.
Click to expand...
Sometimes a duck is just a duck and not a swan trying to look like a duck.
Click to expand...
One can always just say the opposite could happen but this isn't a normal duck, you can understand that right?
If it were one of the 143 Million citizens in Russia I might understand where you are coming from but to put such a high figure and say "Duck is a Duck"
Really? Can you not see how shortsighted that kind of statement is? If you are trying to be funny, the laugh is on me I guess.

And I like you Chad, it's not personal but it's unfathomable to make that analogy when you are dealing with Russia and Putin IMHO...again maybe you were just trying to lighten things up
🤷‍♂️

-Just to be transparent with you, I have accepted that Russia is going to detonate a nuclear weapon of some size in the Ukraine. I know many will think that's bizarre but you don't have to take my word for it, POTUS himself said the threat was "REAL" on NBC a couple days back. People can continue to deny the threat or just pretend it won't happen but when or if it does, it's the respons by the international community that has me shaking my head because I think just like the commercial airplanes Russia has shot down with no consequences in the last many decades, it will go largely without any punishment or consequences other than maybe sanctions. I just don't see Russia being wiped off the map just because they go thru with unleashing a nuke in the Ukraine, and spare us the word "tactical" because it just sugarcoats what is taking place.

I'm in the minority on this, probably for the best, but I have accepted that I am going to witness one being detonated in combat by a foreign country in my lifetime.
A lot of folks think any country that launches or detonates a nuclear weapon will be bombed off the face of the earth by the next day, I find that hard to believe with the leaders we see not just here but abroad. I think they would just shake their fists and threaten some action but nothing major would happen. And it's not a GOP/DNC thing, it's just the leaders as a whole in this country, collectively, ALL of THEM

Cheers Chad!
Click to expand...
I am not sure where you are taking such big swings at things and then reply that any other perspective is being shortsighted.

Putin using any nuclear weapons would be absolutely moronic.
1st- He would lose the only real support right now that matter which is China. Where China goes, so does N. Korea. Sure, Iran and some lesser countries would likely stick by him but the only real country that matters is China. It will not support China if they used nukes.
2nd- NATO would launch a conventional assault on all of Russian military worldwide, included PMC's like Wagner. It would wipe any conventional threat off the table within a matter of weeks and completely destroy Russia's ability to make war.
3rd- Russia would lose it's perm seat on the UN security council forever, severely limiting Russia's diplomatic muscle forever.
4th- It would achieve absolutely nothing in terms of military objectives. Russian forces in Ukraine are barely adequately equipped as is. They are not equipped or trained to operate in a nuclear warzone. If they use it then there is no way to take advantage of that use. If they attempted to do so, the units used would quickly become combat ineffective and wasted.
5th- Putin, even more now, has to wonder how much control he really has. Is ordering a nuclear strike going to be the last straw for the military for them to turn on him?

Any 'use' of nukes would be a false flag operation of sabotaging a nuclear plant and blaming it on Ukraine similar to the recent dam destruction. I place the chances of this happening as being very unlikely. Actual use of nuclear weapons is only slightly more risk than there was previous to the Ukrainian invasion.

Nothing personal taken or given.
Click to expand...
Again, the post is full of put downs about the poster rather than the content,

Did I make a specific post at you when I was taking "big swings"
NO I DID NOT, you jumped into it and had to post at me instead of just stating your POV,
I never said all opposing views were shortsighted, I said comparing Wagner to a Duck is shortsighted Chad, there's a big difference so take some ownership over your comment.

"Putin using any weapons absolutely moronic" is just a quick way to shut down opposing POV,
I don't care to play word games, I was very clear in my POV and my platform, little disappointed in how you choose to keep posting with me.
 
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Subscribe to read | Financial Times

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
www.ft.com www.ft.com

Interesting note here from UK defense secretary:

But Ben Wallace, UK defence secretary, played down the impact on Putin’s authority, maintaining that “we shouldn’t necessarily over-credit the destabilisation, that somehow this is a massive derailment of the Kremlin”.
Speaking to the Royal United Services Institute think-tank, Wallace emphasised that the war in Ukraine was still being prosecuted by Valery Gerasimov, chief of staff, and Sergei Shoigu, defence minister, Prigozhin’s main hate figures within the Russian system.
However the UK defence minister added that Prigozhin’s ability to advance on Saturday with “only about 2,500 people”, had exposed how “threadbare” and “stretched” Russia’s reserves were.
Click to expand...

Previous estimates were closer to the 10,000 mark despite Prigozhin's insistence of 25,000. The UK defense secretary seems to think it's more like 2500. Prigozhin is hilariously bad at math and often exaggerates numbers, so this is not a surprise.

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
www.ft.com www.ft.com

On Sunday evening, locals in Voronezh saw Wagner fighters shopping in a supermarket, even though officials had said they left the city that morning.
As the Wagner fighters left, shawarmas in hand from a nearby stand, one “young guy had a rapturous, impudent look. As if everything was fine and nothing really happened, and they’re all going home,” said Vladimir, a teacher in Voronezh.
Several Wagner hotlines across Russia, reached by phone on Monday, told the Financial Times they were still recruiting new fighters.
“Recruitment is ongoing,” one of them said. “Nobody has put a stop to the recruitment.”
Click to expand...

The first big issue is whether Prigozhin — who has yet to confirm his whereabouts — will indeed go into exile in Belarus, as the Kremlin suggested.
One person who has known the warlord since the early 1990s, when Putin visited a restaurant Prigozhin owned, said Belarus was probably a jump-off point for him to return to running Wagner’s longstanding mercenary activities in Africa.
“Alexander Grigorevich [Lukashenko, the Belarus president] doesn’t need him there under any circumstances . . . and doesn’t have the kind of money to keep him there,” the person said. Instead, Prigozhin “will keep going [all the way to] Africa”.
Click to expand...

Wagner’s complex financial and logistical ties with the security apparatus also raised suspicions that Prigozhin’s plot ran deeper.
“This is just the tip of the iceberg. The inter-elite, inter-agency fight for a place in Putinism without Putin, for power in postwar Russia, is getting fiercer,” said Pavel Luzin, a visiting scholar at Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.
The ease with which Wagner marched across Russia with just a few thousand men suggested Prigozhin’s allies in the security services could have been involved in the uprising, Luzin added. “If the security forces were waiting for an order that never came, what was the air force doing up there? There are so many strange moments that create the sense that the secret services thought they had the situation under control, and they didn’t,” he said.
Click to expand...

The future of Wagner fighters remains uncertain. The Kremlin forgave them and said those who had not taken part would sign contracts with the army. According to an intelligence assessment shared between EU officials and seen by the FT, that number could amount to about 20,000 of Wagner’s 25,000-strong force. But on Monday, Prigozhin said his men would remain independent. “We were marching to demonstrate our protest, not to unseat the government,” he said.
Click to expand...
 
Ministry of Pain said:
And just like magic there's a potential overthrow by a highly trained mercenary group and in a matter of hours there is a plan by an outside country to take them in
(That sounds likely and reasonable, sure)

So now this highly trained specialized group is going to be welcomed into Belarus which runs right along the northern border of Ukraine
I'd be very leery to listen to much coming out of the major news networks on this story, would seem to be very flimsy without a lot of concrete intelligence behind it.
Click to expand...
@Chadstroma
Do you see my post that you decided to jump on? Does it have your name or any other FBG name attached to it or listed?
Does it say that anyone is dumb or stupid or short sighted OR in any way sound like MoP was a victim of any other poster prior to this entry?
But you found fault with it and wanted to make sure and try to tear it down or discredit it in some way when it didn't need to be.

And MoP still loves you Chad but I fail to understand why you want to argue with me in here, seems like there are other softer targets than the guy who wants to believe Putin and the POTUS

www.nbcnews.com

Threat of Putin's using tactical nuclear weapons is ‘real,’ Biden warns

Ukraine pressed on with its counteroffensive just days after the Kremlin began deploying the weapons to Belarus.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com

-It's not MOP, it's the POTUS and Putin that are pushing the narrative
🤷‍♂️


Who we taking on the 2/3 turn in Redraft, anyone got that down yet?
 
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www.theguardian.com

Wagner fighters said to be returning to Ukraine bases as recruitment continues

Mercenaries are ‘recovering, eating and repairing gear’, says source, as some Russian officials call for them to be disarmed
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

There has been no visual confirmation of Wagner units’ movements but a source with direct knowledge of the situation said some had returned to their bases in the Russian-occupied area of eastern Ukraine, as was announced by Prigozhin on Saturday.

“They are recovering, eating and repairing their gear after the military march,” the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “They do not appear to know what will happen to them either. But they are still fully armed.”
Click to expand...

In Novosibirsk, Russia’s third biggest city, advertising posters were again hung at the entrance to the Wagner recruitment centre, having been taken down during Prigozhin’s rebellion, according to the Russian news agency Tass.

“Everything is as usual, work continues,” a Wagner representative from Samara told the Guardian over the phone. The representative stressed that the prospective fighters would sign their contracts with Wagner and not the ministry of defence.

Rybar, a well-connected pro-Kremlin military analysis channel on Telegram, said that “everything was going on as normal in Molkino”, referring to Wagner’s training facility in the southern Krasnodar region. “Wagner’s recruiting campaigns throughout the country continue … despite all the commotion,” Rybar added.
Click to expand...

The fact that Wagner has not been immediately disbanded after an unprecedented weekend in which its fighters marched on Moscow, shooting at least six army helicopters in the process, appears to suggest that the Kremlin has not made up its mind about the group’s future.

“Everything points to the fact that that they don’t know what to do with all of Prigozhin’s operations,” said Denis Korotkov, a leading Russian expert on the Wagner group.

Korotkov said Prigozhin had over the years built Wagner into a vast force that has been active on several continents, making it “tricky” to dismantle in a day. “Events unfolded so quickly that there wasn’t a plan in place for what to do with Prigozhin and Wagner,” Korotkov said.
Click to expand...

Marat Gabidullin, a former Wagner commander, doubted that the group could exist without the leadership of Prigozhin, who is believed to be extremely popular among his fighters.

“If they remove Prigozhin from Wagner then that’s no longer Wagner as we know it but a pathetic imitation,” said Gabidullin, who has written a memoir about his time in the paramilitary organisation. “Very few Wagner soldiers will sign up for a Wagner without him.”
Click to expand...

Shoigu’s appearance on state television did not bode well for Prigozhin’s future, said a former high-ranking defence ministry official who frequently met Prigozhin.

Describing Prigozhin as an ambitious, ruthless and risk-taking figure, the former official believed Prigozhin overstepped by going against Putin.

“Prigozhin is addicted to risk,” the former official said. “But like most addicts, he did not have his addiction under control.”
Click to expand...
 
Jimmy Rushton@JimmySecUK

Putin claims the "organisers of the rebellion will be brought to justice"... So no pardon for Prigozhin, as was promised.

Calls on Wagner fighters to go back to their homes.

The big headline from Putin's speech - no immunity for Prigozhin (and presumably Utkin) - they're going to be "brought to justice".
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He had his fingers crossed behind his back.
 
Dmitri@wartranslated

As always, anticlimactic from Putin:

- Any attempts to start a mutiny will fail.

- An armed mutiny would have been suppressed anyway. Perpetrators must've known about this.

- By betraying their country, they also lied and forced others to kill their own soldiers.

- All the enemies abroad and national traitors wanted us to fight each other. They failed.

- The majority of Wagner commanders and fighters are patriots. They were used covertly against their brothers-in-arms.

- I made steps to avoid large bloodshed. This needed time including letting those who made a mistake change their mind and see the consequences this will lead to.

- Stability was possible thanks to the enormous support of civil society who united during the difficult time.

- Putin will keep his word regarding PMC employees (possibly regarding no prosecution. Some can go to Belarus, rest can sign contracts with MoD. The choice is theirs.
Click to expand...

tl;dr - I want to keep your army, Yev, I just don't want you.
 
Is all very interesting but we’re only hearing
Chadstroma said:
themeistersinger said:
www.themoscowtimes.com

Threats to Wagner Leaders' Families Preceded Mutiny Stand-Down – Telegraph - The Moscow Times

Russian intelligence agencies made threats to harm the families of Wagner mercenary group leaders as the group marched on Moscow, Britain’s The Telegraph daily reported Monday, citing anonymous U.K. security sources.
www.themoscowtimes.com www.themoscowtimes.com

Click to expand...
That rings true and explains the sudden stand down.
Click to expand...

I believe I had that.
 
Another quick take:

Oliver Carroll@olliecarroll
For all Kremlin hype that was a very short message from Putin there. The headlines was that a) he’s pretty angry b) Prigozhin remains a traitor and c) Wagner fighters will have the a choice to join Russian army or leave for Belarus
Click to expand...
 
themeistersinger said:
newlinesmag.com

What the Hell Just Happened in Russia?

A perceptive Estonian military analyst breaks down Yevgeny Prigozhin’s abortive coup
newlinesmag.com newlinesmag.com
Click to expand...
It's hard to focus or keep track of it all but I liked this article you linked, thank you

Very hard to gauge the temperature based on US News Networks, all of them seem to have the same narrative with very little insight and the print seemed like spin from the bigger news outlets around the World as well as here at home.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
themeistersinger said:
newlinesmag.com

What the Hell Just Happened in Russia?

A perceptive Estonian military analyst breaks down Yevgeny Prigozhin’s abortive coup
newlinesmag.com newlinesmag.com
Click to expand...
It's hard to focus or keep track of it all but I liked this article you linked, thank you

Very hard to gauge the temperature based on US News Networks, all of them seem to have the same narrative with very little insight and the print seemed like spin from the bigger news outlets around the World as well as here at home.
Click to expand...
I try to post anything that appears well reasoned, whether pro-Russia or pro Ukraine (and I am definitely a pro-Ukraine person). But you can't make any kind of reasoned analysis if you only post stuff that you agree with already.
 

So Rybar suggests there will be a reshuffle in the MoD, but instead of Shoigu and Gerasimov, it will be Rudskoy (Main Operational Directorate), Buvatlsev (Main Combat Training Directorate), and Burdinskiy (Main Organizational Mobilizational Directorate).
Click to expand...


The Chief of Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff is a very important position, so this would be significant. But Prigozhin's anger was focused at Shoigu and Gerasimov, and Shoigu's position seems safe for the moment.
Click to expand...


I think the options for Wagner as laid out in the released statement seem to be exile to Belarus, demobilization, or absorption into the regular armed forces via signing contracts. So this all seems far from over.
Click to expand...


Immediately after Putin's abrupt and surprisingly empty TV address -- state news agencies report that Putin is meeting with his security service leaders
Click to expand...
"Putin is holding a meeting with the heads of security agencies- Prosecutor General Krasnov, Interior Minister Kolokoltsev, Defense Minister Shoigu, FSB Director Bortnikov, Rosgvardia Head Zolotov, FSO Director Kochnev, IC Head Bastrykin, and Kremlin Administration Head Vaino."
Click to expand...
 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Jimmy Rushton@JimmySecUK

Putin claims the "organisers of the rebellion will be brought to justice"... So no pardon for Prigozhin, as was promised.

Calls on Wagner fighters to go back to their homes.

The big headline from Putin's speech - no immunity for Prigozhin (and presumably Utkin) - they're going to be "brought to justice".
Click to expand...
He had his fingers crossed behind his back.
Click to expand...

Peskov (who now claims his "will determine the fate of Russia" quote was fake) definitely had me on my toes there. I'll give him that.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Chadstroma said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Chadstroma said:
Ministry of Pain said:
And just like magic there's a potential overthrow by a highly trained mercenary group and in a matter of hours there is a plan by an outside country to take them in
(That sounds likely and reasonable, sure)

So now this highly trained specialized group is going to be welcomed into Belarus which runs right along the northern border of Ukraine
I'd be very leery to listen to much coming out of the major news networks on this story, would seem to be very flimsy without a lot of concrete intelligence behind it.
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Sometimes a duck is just a duck and not a swan trying to look like a duck.
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One can always just say the opposite could happen but this isn't a normal duck, you can understand that right?
If it were one of the 143 Million citizens in Russia I might understand where you are coming from but to put such a high figure and say "Duck is a Duck"
Really? Can you not see how shortsighted that kind of statement is? If you are trying to be funny, the laugh is on me I guess.

And I like you Chad, it's not personal but it's unfathomable to make that analogy when you are dealing with Russia and Putin IMHO...again maybe you were just trying to lighten things up
🤷‍♂️

-Just to be transparent with you, I have accepted that Russia is going to detonate a nuclear weapon of some size in the Ukraine. I know many will think that's bizarre but you don't have to take my word for it, POTUS himself said the threat was "REAL" on NBC a couple days back. People can continue to deny the threat or just pretend it won't happen but when or if it does, it's the respons by the international community that has me shaking my head because I think just like the commercial airplanes Russia has shot down with no consequences in the last many decades, it will go largely without any punishment or consequences other than maybe sanctions. I just don't see Russia being wiped off the map just because they go thru with unleashing a nuke in the Ukraine, and spare us the word "tactical" because it just sugarcoats what is taking place.

I'm in the minority on this, probably for the best, but I have accepted that I am going to witness one being detonated in combat by a foreign country in my lifetime.
A lot of folks think any country that launches or detonates a nuclear weapon will be bombed off the face of the earth by the next day, I find that hard to believe with the leaders we see not just here but abroad. I think they would just shake their fists and threaten some action but nothing major would happen. And it's not a GOP/DNC thing, it's just the leaders as a whole in this country, collectively, ALL of THEM

Cheers Chad!
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I am not sure where you are taking such big swings at things and then reply that any other perspective is being shortsighted.

Putin using any nuclear weapons would be absolutely moronic.
1st- He would lose the only real support right now that matter which is China. Where China goes, so does N. Korea. Sure, Iran and some lesser countries would likely stick by him but the only real country that matters is China. It will not support China if they used nukes.
2nd- NATO would launch a conventional assault on all of Russian military worldwide, included PMC's like Wagner. It would wipe any conventional threat off the table within a matter of weeks and completely destroy Russia's ability to make war.
3rd- Russia would lose it's perm seat on the UN security council forever, severely limiting Russia's diplomatic muscle forever.
4th- It would achieve absolutely nothing in terms of military objectives. Russian forces in Ukraine are barely adequately equipped as is. They are not equipped or trained to operate in a nuclear warzone. If they use it then there is no way to take advantage of that use. If they attempted to do so, the units used would quickly become combat ineffective and wasted.
5th- Putin, even more now, has to wonder how much control he really has. Is ordering a nuclear strike going to be the last straw for the military for them to turn on him?

Any 'use' of nukes would be a false flag operation of sabotaging a nuclear plant and blaming it on Ukraine similar to the recent dam destruction. I place the chances of this happening as being very unlikely. Actual use of nuclear weapons is only slightly more risk than there was previous to the Ukrainian invasion.

Nothing personal taken or given.
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Again, the post is full of put downs about the poster rather than the content,

Did I make a specific post at you when I was taking "big swings"
NO I DID NOT, you jumped into it and had to post at me instead of just stating your POV,
I never said all opposing views were shortsighted, I said comparing Wagner to a Duck is shortsighted Chad, there's a big difference so take some ownership over your comment.

"Putin using any weapons absolutely moronic" is just a quick way to shut down opposing POV,
I don't care to play word games, I was very clear in my POV and my platform, little disappointed in how you choose to keep posting with me.
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I have no idea how you are taking what I am saying as directed at you or put downs.

I said sometimes a duck is just a duck.... meaning, I don't think there is much more to this whole oddball coup attempt by Wagner and stand down than what it is. Prigozhin felt the walls closing in and felt that was his best route out. When the officers families started to get threatened they lost their desire to keep at it and Prigozhin was given an out by Belarus. Could there be more to it? Sure. I don't think there is. It seems you are reading more into the whole duck analogy. There is no special hidden meaning. I was simply saying that I don't see it as any differently than it appears.

Putin using a nuclear weapon about be a moronic mistake by him. Again, I don't understand why you take that as some personal offense. There are real reasons why it would be a massive mistake and I outlined the biggest of them in my reply since you brought it up. I made my argument and outlined it. I don't feel that that is shutting anyone down.

I honestly feel like you are reading and replying to someone else almost. I am completely dumbfounded by how you are taking my posts and twisting them into some form of attack or something personal to you. I don't get it.
 
until Putin is removed, i will continue to think that these Putin doomsday statements are just wishful thinking.

what I'm more worried about is Wagner opening up another front thru Belarus.
 
Orange&Blue said:
until Putin is removed, i will continue to think that these Putin doomsday statements are just wishful thinking.

what I'm more worried about is Wagner opening up another front thru Belarus.
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I don't find it something likely and then on top of that if they did it actually might prove useful for the Ukrainians.

I doubt the Russian logistics can handle it anymore. They were inadequate to begin with at the start of the invasion and Ukraine destroyed a large number of their military vehicles for logistics so the Russians have pressed civilian trucks into service. Further, Wagner showed that the Russians really have almost nothing in reserve. A few thousand Wagner troops made it to about 100 miles from Moscow with essentially police waiving them through. Moscow had an unknown amount of troops that started to barricade themselves in (but from what I saw, it was hardly a large presence but usually like two trucks from the videos we saw) and they called in Chechens to come up to Rostov.

If they did attempt it, then I think the Ukrainians would maul the troops that attempted it. The big thing right now that is a benefit and hinderous for both sides is the others anti-aircraft umbrellas. This favors defensive positions and puts offensive operations at a great disadvantage. We have seen throughout the war that the Russians are reluctant to use their airpower outside of their own umbrella. Any offensive would then be open to Ukrainian combined arms action with the use of their own airpower. I think they would suffer significantly larger losses than their grueling efforts to take Bakhmut. Now... is that something the Russians would be happy with? That is an interesting question. They were certainly happy to use Wagner as cannon fodder in the battle of Bakhmut and likely saw it as a way to kill two enemies in one attempt but I think that an attempt at this stage would end in a decisive victory for the Ukrainians. And don't forget, the Ukrainians have several brigades essentially in reserve right now.
 
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Chadstroma said:
themeistersinger said:
www.themoscowtimes.com

Threats to Wagner Leaders' Families Preceded Mutiny Stand-Down – Telegraph - The Moscow Times

Russian intelligence agencies made threats to harm the families of Wagner mercenary group leaders as the group marched on Moscow, Britain’s The Telegraph daily reported Monday, citing anonymous U.K. security sources.
www.themoscowtimes.com www.themoscowtimes.com

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That rings true and explains the sudden stand down.
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I find it difficult to believe that Prigozhin didn't take into account that his actions would put his family or his leadership's families in jeopardy. Then again, nothing in the last 3 days makes any sense to me.
 

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
www.ft.com www.ft.com

As always, we'll wait and see on this:

Russia dropped charges against participants in the Wagner paramilitary force’s armed insurrection and said the group had agreed to hand over its weaponry.
The announcements on Tuesday came in the wake of the deal between the Kremlin and its founder Yevgeny Prigozhin and appeared to mark progress towards resolving the stand-off.
The FSB, Russia’s main security service, said it had closed its investigation into the weekend rebellion because “it has been determined that its participants ceased the activities directly aimed at committing the crime”, according to state newswire Ria Novosti.
While in the immediate aftermath of the failed insurrection the Kremlin had said the charges would be dropped, they had remained in force, in an apparent bid to put pressure on Wagner to abide by the terms of the deal.
The Russian defence ministry also said Wagner was preparing to hand over weaponry to the army.
Prigozhin claimed on Monday that Wagner had previously planned to hand over its equipment to the defence ministry — until Russia’s army hit one of the group’s bases in an air strike last week. The ministry said Prigozhin’s claims were groundless and no strike was carried out.
On Monday evening, Putin delivered an angry television address in his first public appearance since the Kremlin agreed to a truce to end Prigozhin’s march on Moscow on Saturday.
In his comments, Putin said Wagner’s leaders had “betrayed the country and those who were with them”, adding that most of the group’s fighters were “patriots of Russia” who had been “used” by their command.
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www.bloomberg.com

Putin Faces Historic Threat to Absolute Grip on Power in Russia

The Russian leader defused an armed mutiny but doubts about his rule are growing.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com

Tensions within the Russian elite over the stumbling war effort have been on the rise for months, according to people familiar with the situation. Rival camps have emerged, they said, with some pushing for a far more aggressive pursuit of the campaign, while others hope for a quick settlement to limit the damage to Russia. Putin’s efforts to balance between the two are getting more difficult, the people said.
The Russian president had been confident that he could manage the ambitions of a man who once served him soup, according to people close to the leadership. Prigozhin’s combat-hardened troops could deliver on battlefields where Putin’s army failed and his expletive-laced public attacks on top commanders kept up the pressure on the underperforming military brass.
But as the war effort struggled, Prigozhin’s reach grew thanks to a flood of funding and support from the Kremlin. His seemingly straight talk in social media won over many ordinary Russians tired of official propaganda. More importantly, he tapped into a deep vein of support among influential hardliners in the security and government elite. They worried Putin and many other top officials weren’t committed enough to achieving victory in Ukraine and might settle for a cease-fire, the people said.
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Members of the Moscow elite were grappling with how it had been possible for the renegade force of Wagner mercenaries to so easily seize control of the main command center for the Russian Army’s war in Ukraine in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don without facing resistance, and then progress hundreds of miles along the road to Moscow before Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, eventually decided to turn his troops back.

“How is it possible for them to drive tanks hundreds of kilometers north toward Moscow and not be stopped,” said an associate of a Moscow billionaire. “There was no resistance.”

“When you have columns of thousands of people marching and no one can stop it, the loss of control is evident,” said one Russian billionaire who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity because of fears of retribution.
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But questions persisted about how Putin could have allowed Prigozhin, a close associate since the 1990s, to escape charges for mounting an armed insurrection — in particular since his forces shot down helicopters and a military plane, and killed at least 13 Russian servicemen, according to Russian military bloggers. After halting his troops, Prighozin moved to Belarus from where, judging by an audio message he released on Monday, he intends to continue to operate his Wagner private mercenary group.

“This should be a terrorism case. These were very serious crimes,” said the first Moscow businessman. “But again, nothing has been done.”
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Two Moscow business executives suggested Prigozhin’s mercenaries would not have been able to progress so far unhindered on the road to Moscow if part of the Russian security services had not been backing them. Chechen fighters dispatched to Rostov-on-Don did not appear to do anything, one of the Moscow businessmen said, while other forces sent to counter the Wagner forces blew up only one fuel station in Rostov while leaving another, much bigger one in Voronezh, further along the route to Moscow, intact. Those regular Russian forces only blew up one bridge, in an attempt to slow the insurrection’s progress.
“It was as if they were only acting to show the president they were doing something, but actually they were doing nothing, and the Russian president didn’t control anything,” this businessman said. Prigozhin’s battle over the leadership of the Russian armed forces could represent a deeper struggle within the Russia security services over the future Russian presidency, he suggested.
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Putin needs to figure out how deep this actually goes, which remains an interesting question to ponder. Previous articles spoke about rumors of siloviki in business supporting Prigozhin. Admittedly, these are unconfirmed rumors and speculation, they cannot be taken as fact. But it makes one wonder how deep this goes. Was there support from elements in the security services?

This article is pretty well written and covers how Prigozhin was out maneuvered politically. I had a longer post written up about this and Prigozhin's poor political acumen being one of the clear things to draw from this.
 
www.understandingwar.org

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 26, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech on June 26 seeking to persuade as many Wagner fighters and leaders as possible to join the Russian military and continue fighting against Ukraine and to cause individuals most loyal to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin to self-identify. Putin...
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org

The future of the Wagner Group is unclear, but it will likely not include Yevgeny Prigozhin and may not continue to exist as a distinct or unitary entity. Putin’s appeal to Wagner commanders and servicemen indicates that the Kremlin aims to lure Wagner forces to the Russian MoD, but it is unclear how the Kremlin will organize Wagner into its military structure. The Kremlin may break up Wagner forces operating in Ukraine to reinforce existing military formations, or get Wagner forces to sign up for Russian MoD-affiliated PMCs.[20] The Russian MoD has previously lied to volunteers about keeping their formations together to ensure that recruits sign military contracts, after which the Russian military command dissolved the units.[21] The Kremlin may choose to keep the Wagner entity solely to sustain operations in Africa or the Middle East and break up Wagner’s group of forces in Ukraine. Such scenarios may impact Wagner forces’ morale and combat effectiveness. Prigozhin claimed that Wagner commanders and personnel categorically opposed Wagner’s subordination under the Russian MoD and noted that the Russian military command would misuse experienced Wagner fighters as cannon fodder.[22] Wagner forces, who had previously enjoyed their autonomy, will likely face hostility from Russian military commanders in retaliation for Wagner’s efforts to undermine regular forces. The Telegraph, citing British special services, reported that Russian special forces threatened to harm the families of Wagner commanders during the armed rebellion, which may further trigger tensions and low morale.[23]

Putin’s June 26 speech likely signaled a decisive break between Prigozhin and Putin, and it is likely that the Kremlin will attempt to replace the Wagner leader to distance the PMC from Prigozhin’s betrayal – if the Kremlin decides to keep Wagner as a distinct entity. The Kremlin has not yet made any announcements regarding Wagner’s fate at the time of this publication. Some Russian sources began to mention Wagner founder Dmitry Utkin even though Utkin has remained out of the public eye throughout Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[24] Commander of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) “Vostok” Battalion Alexander Khodakovsky, for example, recalled a time when Utkin saved a Wagner employee from Prigozhin and his henchmen’s beatings.[25]
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I assume this means Utkin was not involved in the mutiny.

www.thetimes.co.uk

How Kremlin told media to report mutiny — don’t say ‘coup’ and ignore Prigozhin

First, confusion. Then urgent demands not to broadcast the destruction
www.thetimes.co.uk www.thetimes.co.uk

As Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion unfolded, the Kremlin issued a series of instructions to Russian television channels on how to cover it. Yet the recommendations changed over the weekend, throwing the broadcasters into disarray. The authorities simply could not understand how best to manage this situation in the media in a way that minimised the risks of reputational harm to the authorities, Putin and the ministry of defence.
By Monday, these recommendations, which are often binding, had finally taken shape. They included a ban on the use of the words “coup”, “putsch” and “mutiny” — it was better to use “attempted rebellion”, a source in the Moscow studio of a Russian channel told The Times. The media were also urged to avoid criticising Prigozhin and Wagner, and not to show the destruction that occurred during the fighting.

On channels such as NTV and Channel One it was also recommended not to mention the military pilots who died as a result of the aerial attack on Prigozhin’s mercenaries.
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As another employee of a big TV channel told The Times, the most challenging aspect of covering the news was organising expert discussion of what had happened. “[The pundits] can’t say much right now. We can’t ask them. It is very difficult to analyse what happened and its consequences in this mode,” the interlocutor said. “On the one hand, we try not to call in expert propagandists; on the other hand, we cannot talk about anything with others when it comes to Wagner.”
When Prigozhin broke his silence and finally commented on the incident on Monday, Russian media journalists were advised to “ignore” it, another source said. One exasperated employee added: “At first they said that we would cover the topic in agreement with the leadership. Then we don’t do it at all. Then we still do it, but without a picture of the destruction. Because we do not show news from Prigozhin himself and his structures! And all this in one day!”
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US intelligence officials were able to gather an extremely detailed and accurate picture of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plans leading up to his short-lived rebellion, including where and how Wagner was planning to advance, sources familiar with the matter told CNN.

But the intelligence was so closely held that it was shared only with select allies, including senior British officials, and not at the broader NATO level, these sources said.

It was not clear exactly when Prigozhin would act, the sources said. But he appears to have decided to move forward with his plan following a June 10 declaration by Russia’s Ministry of Defense that all private military companies, including Wagner, would be forced to sign contracts with Russia’s military beginning in July and essentially be absorbed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
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The secrecy surrounding the intelligence was why some senior European officials and even senior officials across the US government were caught off guard by Prigozhin’s attack on Friday, and the speed with which Wagner forces marched into Rostov-on-Don and up toward Moscow into Saturday morning, the sources said.

“It was an extremely tight hold,” said one person familiar with the intelligence.

Some NATO officials expressed frustration that the intelligence was not shared. But doing so would have risked compromising extremely sensitive sources and methods, sources explained. Ukrainian officials were not told about the intelligence in advance, either, officials said, due primarily to fears that conversations between US and Ukrainian officials might be intercepted by adversaries.
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Multiple sources told CNN that US and Western officials believe that Putin was simply caught off guard by Prigozhin’s actions and did not have time to array his forces against the Wagner mercenaries before they managed to seize control of the military headquarters in Rostov. Putin also likely did not want to divert significant resources away from Ukraine, officials said.
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That's interesting because elsewhere it has been said before that "One person close to the FSB said Russia’s security forces had spent the past several days preparing for some kind of assault...."

It was also said elsewhere a few days ago, "U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Putin also was informed that Prigozhin was plotting something. And though it is not clear precisely when he was told, it was “definitely more than 24 hours ago,” the first U.S. official said."

Still elsewhere, it was said per people familiar with the situation that Bloomberg spoke with, "Inside the Kremlin, fears about Prigozhin’s expanding influence grew, but Putin dismissed the warnings that he was preparing to mount an armed challenge, the people said."

This gets back to the discussion: was this a Russian intelligence failure or a Russian policy failure? My money is on a policy failure.

Officials do believe, however, that had Prigozhin tried to seize Moscow or the Kremlin, he would have lost – decisively. That is likely why Prigozhin agreed to strike a deal with Belarus and ultimately turned his troops around, the officials said.

One former administration official told CNN that while there was “constant stress and tension between Prigozhin and the [Russian Ministry of Defense], there were moments when the US would not have been surprised if it spilled over into violent – but localized – skirmishes.” But something on this scale was not something US intelligence had anticipated prior to a few weeks ago.
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^Ukrainian intelligence reportedly do not seem to have been confident in Prigozhin's chances either. ISW previously did not seem confident in Prigozhin's chances as well.
 
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