*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (6 Viewers)

[The Z Machine]

That was the strategy toward China in the 1990s and has come back to bite us.

It has? How?

 

[Dickies]

I'd be up for a group PM discussion so some of you can vent, and some of us struggling to keep quiet can go there. I think there's plenty to flesh out.

There is a discord group of FBGs discussing things like this.

Can I get a link?

Would be interested as well.

Same

 

[ghostguy123]

I'd be up for a group PM discussion so some of you can vent, and some of us struggling to keep quiet can go there. I think there's plenty to flesh out.

There is a discord group of FBGs discussing things like this.

Can I get a link?

Would be interested as well.

Same

Also interested. It would be nice to hear real conversation about this

 

[Zeppelin]

I'd be up for a group PM discussion so some of you can vent, and some of us struggling to keep quiet can go there. I think there's plenty to flesh out.

There is a discord group of FBGs discussing things like this.

Can I get a link?

Would be interested as well.

Same

Also interested. It would be nice to hear real conversation about this

Me as well.

 

[Chaos34]

I'd be up for a group PM discussion so some of you can vent, and some of us struggling to keep quiet can go there. I think there's plenty to flesh out.

There is a discord group of FBGs discussing things like this.

Can I get a link?

Would be interested as well.

Same

Also interested. It would be nice to hear real conversation about this

Me as well.

I was invited to the Discord for a best ball league two seasons ago. I found the thread and the link in my pms, but it no longer works for me. I guess you can get uninvited with inactivity. There was at least 30 threads as I recall, and definitely politics being discussed in more than one. Guess we all need invites not a link.

 

[zoobird]

I'd be up for a group PM discussion so some of you can vent, and some of us struggling to keep quiet can go there. I think there's plenty to flesh out.

There is a discord group of FBGs discussing things like this.

Can I get a link?

Would be interested as well.

Same

Also interested. It would be nice to hear real conversation about this

Me as well.

Me too

 

[Joe Bryant]

I'd be up for a group PM discussion so some of you can vent, and some of us struggling to keep quiet can go there. I think there's plenty to flesh out.

There is a discord group of FBGs discussing things like this.

Hi @Dezbelief - can you please share the link here?

 

[Don't Toews Me]

US continues to share intelligence with Ukraine despite withholding military aid as of Tuesday morning

The United States continues to share intelligence information with Ukraine as of Tuesday morning, a source familiar with the situation told CNN.

US military aid pause is a blow to Ukraine, but not fatal for now

The move suspends any further drawdown from $3.85 billion of military aid approved by Congress that Trump inherited from his predecessor, Joe Biden. It also appears to halt deliveries of military equipment already approved by Biden.
"It's pretty significant, but not nearly as impactful as it would have been earlier in the war because Ukraine is far less dependent on direct U.S. military assistance now than it was previously," said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment.
"But it will definitely affect Ukraine, and the effect will become more pronounced after a couple of months as inventories become depleted," he told Reuters on Monday, shortly before the aid cut was announced.
In particular, Kyiv may now struggle to source replacements for sophisticated air defence systems used to repel regular Russian missile attacks, and precision weapons like the HIMARS missile system, which is one of Ukraine's main strike systems, with a range of 70-85 km (45-55 miles).

Ukraine also now uses domestically made drones for a majority of battlefield strikes, defence experts said.
"Artillery has not lost its place on the field of battle, but we see that the war has changed and it is now based on drones. Artillery needs to be there, it changes the enemy’s intentions, but the base is drones," said Roman Kostenko, secretary of Ukraine's parliamentary committee on national security, defence and intelligence.
He said that in 2024, 65% of Russian soldiers killed or wounded by Ukraine were hit by drones, while only 20% were hit with artillery, and only 10% with American artillery.
But the loss of 155mm artillery shells, of which the United States was the largest supplier, looks to be a problem.
"I know that at the moment we have some reserves, and I think that, with the current intensity of fighting they should last until about the middle of summer," he told Reuters.

Military briefing: Ukraine to run out of US weapons by summer

A senior Ukrainian intelligence official said that Ukraine will probably run out of the last American military supplies in “two or three months”.
“After that, it will be very difficult for us,” the official told the Financial Times. “It will not be a total collapse, but we will be forced to withdraw from areas more quickly.”

Crucially for Ukraine, that support includes intelligence-sharing, which has reportedly not so far been suspended.
“The impact is generally hard to gauge, because there’s a fair amount of US support that isn’t publicly discussed,” says Michael Kofman, a military analyst and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a US think-tank.

If the country’s military was forced to stop using the most sophisticated air defence system in its arsenal, “eventually, Ukraine would need to do a difficult prioritisation,” says Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst monitoring the war for the Finland-based Black Bird Group. “Do you defend an airfield, or a power plant, or a factory making weapons?”

Ukraine weapons stockpile will last half a year, says MP

Ukraine has a weapons stockpile that would last six months, a member of the Ukrainian parliament's defence committee has said.

Ukrainian MP Fedir Venislavsky tells Ukrainian news agency RBC: "I think we've definitely got enough resources to last about half a year even without consistent help from the US, but of course it will be much more difficult."

How Trump’s arms suspension could affect Ukraine on the front line

The Ukrainians “cannot hold the line” without US support, British government sources believe, with the Americans providing “the cream” of the weapons sent to the country.
About 20 per cent of the military hardware that is in Ukraine at the moment comes from the US, according to western officials. Some 25 per cent comes from Europe, including the UK, and other nations. About 55 per cent is funded by Ukraine and comes from Ukrainian production, officials said.
Yet “there is a difference in quality and that 20 per cent from America literally is the cream and is the most lethal aspects and the most important aspects,” said one official. They spoke before President Trump paused military aid to Ukraine on Monday night — a policy that is effective immediately — after a the shouting match with President Zelensky in the White House on Friday.

At the end of the Biden administration, the US managed to send in a lot of kit before Trump’s inauguration. Yet how long that will last remains unclear. One senior UK government source said they feared Zelensky’s current position “may be becoming untenable”.
“The Ukrainians cannot hold the line without US support,” they said.
Ukrainian military sources are more optimistic, however. “I think we can hold the line,” said one senior source, adding: “We have our stuff as well.”

Matthew Savill, the director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, said that Storm Shadow relied on dummy missiles provided by the US to interfere with Russian air defences. “The Russians waste their ground-based air defence trying to shoot the decoy,” he explained. How many of these remain in Ukraine is unclear.

Savill said that overall suspension of US military aid would be a “big problem”, “because the Europeans probably can’t immediately fill the gap, so you’d have a big drop in materiel lasting months”.
He said the US was able to provide equipment in vast quantities, compared with European allies.
The volume of armoured vehicles and Himars (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) rocket launchers the US provides far exceeds that of other international partners. “The question is can Europe double their output — and the answer is not in the short-term,” he said.
He said that Europe could not both rearm itself and provide aid to Ukraine in large quantities. “It is constantly having to choose between the two,” he added.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Seems strange, strategically, for Ukraine to broadcast so loudly how weak its position is. That seems like pretty important Intel.

 

[Redwes25]

Seems strange, strategically, for Ukraine to broadcast so loudly how weak its position is. That seems like pretty important Intel.

I don’t think any of this is not already fully public info. They are heavy reliant on us for certain ammunition for artillery and HIMARS.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Seems strange, strategically, for Ukraine to broadcast so loudly how weak its position is. That seems like pretty important Intel.

I don’t think any of this is not already fully public info. They are heavy reliant on us for certain ammunition for artillery and HIMARS.

True, but announcing a timeline for it seems weird. If you say you'll be out of ammo in two to three months then it seems like Putin can tell people, "We'll have won in two to three more months."

 

[ghostguy123]

Seems strange, strategically, for Ukraine to broadcast so loudly how weak its position is. That seems like pretty important Intel.

I don’t think any of this is not already fully public info. They are heavy reliant on us for certain ammunition for artillery and HIMARS.

True, but announcing a timeline for it seems weird. If you say you'll be out of ammo in two to three months then it seems like Putin can tell people, "We'll have won in two to three more months."

Perhaps announcing that alerts the potential helpers. I dont know, but they do seem a bit desperate, and rightfully so.

 

[quick-hands]

As Europe mobilizes behind Ukraine, it's sitting on a $218 billion ace card — and it's being urged to play it​

• European leaders held emergency talks to discuss support for Ukraine on Sunday.
• It came amid souring relations between the US and Ukraine, raising pressure on Europe to step up.
• One quick way to raise "game-changing" cash would be to seize $218 billion in frozen Russian assets.

Amid growing tensions between Washington and Kyiv, calls are growing for Europe to take an unprecedented step that could unlock billions in funding for Ukraine.

Some world leaders and politicians, including former UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, are urging European countries to seize the roughly $218 billion in frozen Russian central bank assets — now largely held in Brussels — and hand them to Ukraine.

"It is only fair that Russia should pay for the damage its war has caused," Sunak wrote in an opinion piece for The Economist on Friday.

But such a move comes with risks.

The question of funding was a hot topic on Sunday as EU and UK leaders met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for emergency talks in London to discuss support for Kyiv — just days after the latter's unprecedented Oval Office clash with President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance.

Trump and Vance berated the Ukrainian leader on Friday in front of reporters and cameras. Zelenskyy ultimately left the White House without finalizing a minerals deal that would give the United States access to Kyiv's mineral wealth in exchange for investment and what Zelenskyy hoped would be security guarantees.

The situation has fueled questions over how Europe can step up to help aid Ukraine's defense efforts should the United States reduce, or cut altogether, its support for the war-torn nation.

For Europe to make up the difference would be an expensive prospect and one that could come with political repercussions — which makes the potential to unlock $218 billion in non-taxpayer money all the more attractive.

"We've got all of these different countries with their own internal political battles, and their own internal budgets, all trying to find more cash — and we're sitting on a game-changing amount of funding," Heather Buchanan, the chair of the Athena Foundation, an economic policy advisory nonprofit that supports the move, told Business Insider.

Europe's ace card​

The EU holds the majority of the roughly $300 billion in Russian funds frozen by the United States and international allies after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. The funds have been earmarked for rebuilding Ukraine in peacetime.

Some of the interest earned on those funds has been transferred to Ukraine as loans. The UK's chancellor of the exchequer, Rachel Reeves, and Ukraine's finance minister, Sergii Marchenko, signed a deal on Saturday to deliver another £2.26 billion, or about $2.8 billion, to Ukraine from the accrued interest, also as a loan.

But there's now growing support for a long-considered option: seizing those frozen funds, which would allow them to be transferred directly to Ukraine for use in its defense.

In December, Kaja Kallas, the EU's top diplomat, called for the move — and it's seen support in the past week from leaders in the UK, Estonia, Poland, and Finland.


On Saturday, a coalition of campaign groups and UK MPs brought together by the Athena Foundation called on the UK to get the ball rolling with the seizure of £25 billion, or about $31.4 billion, of Russian state assets now frozen in the UK financial system.

Adrian Karatnycky, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, wrote in Foreign Policy magazine in January that the full $300 billion in frozen assets could replace the US contribution to Ukraine for the next six or seven years if Trump were to cut support to Kyiv.

A nervous gambit​

"The key blocker is that nobody wants to move alone," Buchanan said.

But the White House's recent moves have provided a "perfect storm" that is focusing minds, she added.

While many politicians are pushing for the move, some analysts warn that it should be a last resort because of the impact it could have on global economies.


For example, permanently confiscating Russian assets held in countries that aren't at war with Russia could also "increase the risk perceived by several other countries," Creon Butler, the director of Chatham House's global economy and finance program, wrote last year.

Other countries — such as China, India, and Saudi Arabia — may "fear that at some point they could be subject to similar measures," he wrote.

Sunak, writing for The Economist, has argued that those concerns are "overstated" and that this risk "can be contained."

There's also a debate among analysts over whether the assets should be kept available as a bargaining chip for any future peace talks.

Legal complications must also be considered, as the assets of a foreign nation are normally protected against seizure by a host country.

But the leading lawyer Paul Reichler previously argued to Congress that such protection falls apart when a host state carries out "egregiously wrongful conduct," as he said Russia had.


"If Congress has the power to authorize the executive to freeze a foreign state's assets, it must also have the power to authorize the executive to transfer them," he said.

Buchanan told BI that such a move does require legislation but that "that's what lawmakers are for," adding that meeting a satisfactory legal standard could be brought about "quite quickly."

A further worry is the prospect of retaliation by the Kremlin, whose State Duma is discussing a draft bill allowing it to confiscate foreign property in response to similar moves from "unfriendly countries," Reuters reported.

Striking a psychological blow​

Buchanan said passing the cash to Ukraine would send a "crystal clear" signal to Russia that this money isn't coming back — potentially dealing a strong psychological blow to a country whose economy and labor market are already deeply strained by the war.

The question is whether Western leaders will take the leap.

"It's just political will at this point," she added.

That's a serious move.

I could see Russia moving into further aggression if this happens.

or it works and russia fumes about it for about 10 years and then starts another war

 

[ghostguy123]

As Europe mobilizes behind Ukraine, it's sitting on a $218 billion ace card — and it's being urged to play it​

• European leaders held emergency talks to discuss support for Ukraine on Sunday.
• It came amid souring relations between the US and Ukraine, raising pressure on Europe to step up.
• One quick way to raise "game-changing" cash would be to seize $218 billion in frozen Russian assets.

Amid growing tensions between Washington and Kyiv, calls are growing for Europe to take an unprecedented step that could unlock billions in funding for Ukraine.

Some world leaders and politicians, including former UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, are urging European countries to seize the roughly $218 billion in frozen Russian central bank assets — now largely held in Brussels — and hand them to Ukraine.

"It is only fair that Russia should pay for the damage its war has caused," Sunak wrote in an opinion piece for The Economist on Friday.

But such a move comes with risks.

The question of funding was a hot topic on Sunday as EU and UK leaders met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for emergency talks in London to discuss support for Kyiv — just days after the latter's unprecedented Oval Office clash with President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance.

Trump and Vance berated the Ukrainian leader on Friday in front of reporters and cameras. Zelenskyy ultimately left the White House without finalizing a minerals deal that would give the United States access to Kyiv's mineral wealth in exchange for investment and what Zelenskyy hoped would be security guarantees.

The situation has fueled questions over how Europe can step up to help aid Ukraine's defense efforts should the United States reduce, or cut altogether, its support for the war-torn nation.

For Europe to make up the difference would be an expensive prospect and one that could come with political repercussions — which makes the potential to unlock $218 billion in non-taxpayer money all the more attractive.

"We've got all of these different countries with their own internal political battles, and their own internal budgets, all trying to find more cash — and we're sitting on a game-changing amount of funding," Heather Buchanan, the chair of the Athena Foundation, an economic policy advisory nonprofit that supports the move, told Business Insider.

Europe's ace card​

The EU holds the majority of the roughly $300 billion in Russian funds frozen by the United States and international allies after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. The funds have been earmarked for rebuilding Ukraine in peacetime.

Some of the interest earned on those funds has been transferred to Ukraine as loans. The UK's chancellor of the exchequer, Rachel Reeves, and Ukraine's finance minister, Sergii Marchenko, signed a deal on Saturday to deliver another £2.26 billion, or about $2.8 billion, to Ukraine from the accrued interest, also as a loan.

But there's now growing support for a long-considered option: seizing those frozen funds, which would allow them to be transferred directly to Ukraine for use in its defense.

In December, Kaja Kallas, the EU's top diplomat, called for the move — and it's seen support in the past week from leaders in the UK, Estonia, Poland, and Finland.


On Saturday, a coalition of campaign groups and UK MPs brought together by the Athena Foundation called on the UK to get the ball rolling with the seizure of £25 billion, or about $31.4 billion, of Russian state assets now frozen in the UK financial system.

Adrian Karatnycky, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, wrote in Foreign Policy magazine in January that the full $300 billion in frozen assets could replace the US contribution to Ukraine for the next six or seven years if Trump were to cut support to Kyiv.

A nervous gambit​

"The key blocker is that nobody wants to move alone," Buchanan said.

But the White House's recent moves have provided a "perfect storm" that is focusing minds, she added.

While many politicians are pushing for the move, some analysts warn that it should be a last resort because of the impact it could have on global economies.


For example, permanently confiscating Russian assets held in countries that aren't at war with Russia could also "increase the risk perceived by several other countries," Creon Butler, the director of Chatham House's global economy and finance program, wrote last year.

Other countries — such as China, India, and Saudi Arabia — may "fear that at some point they could be subject to similar measures," he wrote.

Sunak, writing for The Economist, has argued that those concerns are "overstated" and that this risk "can be contained."

There's also a debate among analysts over whether the assets should be kept available as a bargaining chip for any future peace talks.

Legal complications must also be considered, as the assets of a foreign nation are normally protected against seizure by a host country.

But the leading lawyer Paul Reichler previously argued to Congress that such protection falls apart when a host state carries out "egregiously wrongful conduct," as he said Russia had.


"If Congress has the power to authorize the executive to freeze a foreign state's assets, it must also have the power to authorize the executive to transfer them," he said.

Buchanan told BI that such a move does require legislation but that "that's what lawmakers are for," adding that meeting a satisfactory legal standard could be brought about "quite quickly."

A further worry is the prospect of retaliation by the Kremlin, whose State Duma is discussing a draft bill allowing it to confiscate foreign property in response to similar moves from "unfriendly countries," Reuters reported.

Striking a psychological blow​

Buchanan said passing the cash to Ukraine would send a "crystal clear" signal to Russia that this money isn't coming back — potentially dealing a strong psychological blow to a country whose economy and labor market are already deeply strained by the war.

The question is whether Western leaders will take the leap.

"It's just political will at this point," she added.

That's a serious move.

I could see Russia moving into further aggression if this happens.

or it works and russia fumes about it for about 10 years and then starts another war

Reminds me of the Norm Mcdonald bit.......

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Would love the discord as well.

 

[the moops]

Seems strange, strategically, for Ukraine to broadcast so loudly how weak its position is. That seems like pretty important Intel.

It's all mind games and misdirection. Nobody should take anything anyone says as truth

 

[thecatch]

That was the strategy toward China in the 1990s and has come back to bite us.

It has? How?

Really? If your reaction is that China hasn't increasingly become a huge threat to the U.S. over the last 25 years, I'd suggest doing some outside reading. I'm not really interested in engaging in a back and forth on that.

 

[beer 30]

That was the strategy toward China in the 1990s and has come back to bite us.

It has? How?

Really? If your reaction is that China hasn't increasingly become a huge threat to the U.S. over the last 25 years, I'd suggest doing some outside reading. I'm not really interested in engaging in a back and forth on that.

I'm thinking we are at or close to the apex of Chinese influence and threat to the US. Their economy is propped up with government subsidies and their population is aging out quickly. These factors are pushing anxiety and urgency for them to be more bold on the world stage while they still have the teeth to do it. Could/might be wrong, it's all kind of subjective guess work since they are a little tight lipped about their government

 

[Stoneworker]

Looks like a courageous leader has bent the knee. These statements appear carefully constructed to meet U.S. demands for reconciliation and will hopefully restart the process

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday expressed regret for his Oval Office spat with President Trump last week and said he's ready to sign a U.S. minerals deal "any time and in any convenient format."

"Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the way it was supposed to be. It is regrettable that it happened this way. It is time to make things right. We would like future cooperation and communication to be constructive," Zelensky wrote on X.

Zelensky also wrote that Ukrainians "really value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence," and explicitly thanked Trump for providing Ukraine with Javelin weapon systems in his first term.

On the minerals deal, Zelensky said he sees the agreement "as a step toward greater security and solid security guarantees, and I truly hope it will work effectively."

Zelensky expresses regret for Oval Office spat

 

[Stoneworker]

Initial proposal from Ukraine on cease fire...

As part of the "first stages" of a deal, Zelensky proposed moving forward with the release of prisoners by both Russia and Ukraine, a "truce in the sky" that will freeze missile and long-range drone attacks, and no strikes on energy and other civilian infrastructure. He said the initial deal could also include a "truce in the sea."

 

[Joe Schmo]

I find this part of Zelensky's statement informative of is starting point:
"We are ready to work fast to end the war, and the first stages could be the release of prisoners and truce in the sky — ban on missiles, long-ranged drones, bombs on energy and other civilian infrastructure — and truce in the sea immediately, if Russia will do the same. Then we want to move very fast through all next stages and to work with the US to agree a strong final deal."

 

[ghostguy123]

If all that happens, then great.
As BB would say, "we're on to Russia"

 

[Joe Schmo]

It's up to the Russians and their mediator to take the next step to a temporary cease fire that may lead to a final peace agreement.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

That seems positive.

 

[Stoneworker]

It's up to the Russians and their mediator to take the next step to a temporary cease fire that may lead to a final peace agreement.

IMO the Zelensky cease fire comment was more about showing the US they were "serious" than any type of direct overture to Russia looking for a response. Could be wrong

There's still a couple of steps in between. The minerals deal needs to be signed to bind Ukraine and the U.S. Then the US and EU need to get back on the same page to demonstrate solidarity.

 

[Joe Schmo]

It's up to the Russians and their mediator to take the next step to a temporary cease fire that may lead to a final peace agreement.

IMO the Zelensky cease fire comment was more about showing the US they were "serious" than any type of direct overture to Russia looking for a response. Could be wrong

There's still a couple of steps in between. The minerals deal needs to be signed to bind Ukraine and the U.S. Then the US and EU need to get back on the same page to demonstrate solidarity.

Agree with all of that, however, this message lays out to the US admin what Ukraine is looking for in order for negotiations to go further. Security guarantees gets Zelensky to the table re: the mineral rights agreement.

 

[ghostguy123]

It's up to the Russians and their mediator to take the next step to a temporary cease fire that may lead to a final peace agreement.

IMO the Zelensky cease fire comment was more about showing the US they were "serious" than any type of direct overture to Russia looking for a response. Could be wrong

There's still a couple of steps in between. The minerals deal needs to be signed to bind Ukraine and the U.S. Then the US and EU need to get back on the same page to demonstrate solidarity.

Agree with all of that, however, this message lays out to the US admin what Ukraine is looking for in order for negotiations to go further. Security guarantees gets Zelensky to the table re: the mineral rights agreement.

That wouldnt make much sense considering the Oval Office meltdown was in direct response to Z asking for those securities.
At least that's how it all appears to me.

I'm under the impression the minerals deal needs to be signed before the US even bothers to take this any further.

 

[thecatch]

That was the strategy toward China in the 1990s and has come back to bite us.

It has? How?

Really? If your reaction is that China hasn't increasingly become a huge threat to the U.S. over the last 25 years, I'd suggest doing some outside reading. I'm not really interested in engaging in a back and forth on that.

I'm thinking we are at or close to the apex of Chinese influence and threat to the US. Their economy is propped up with government subsidies and their population is aging out quickly. These factors are pushing anxiety and urgency for them to be more bold on the world stage while they still have the teeth to do it. Could/might be wrong, it's all kind of subjective guess work since they are a little tight lipped about their government

Could be - I certainly hope so. It would be a bad idea for us to anticipate them collapsing in our strategic and economic planning, though.

 

[Joe Schmo]

It's up to the Russians and their mediator to take the next step to a temporary cease fire that may lead to a final peace agreement.

IMO the Zelensky cease fire comment was more about showing the US they were "serious" than any type of direct overture to Russia looking for a response. Could be wrong

There's still a couple of steps in between. The minerals deal needs to be signed to bind Ukraine and the U.S. Then the US and EU need to get back on the same page to demonstrate solidarity.

Agree with all of that, however, this message lays out to the US admin what Ukraine is looking for in order for negotiations to go further. Security guarantees gets Zelensky to the table re: the mineral rights agreement.

That wouldnt make much sense considering the Oval Office meltdown was in direct response to Z asking for those securities.
At least that's how it all appears to me.

I'm under the impression the minerals deal needs to be signed before the US even bothers to take this any further.

Then no deal is imminent. Zelensky would be foolish to sign over his country's rights without those guarantees.

 

[Stoneworker]

It's up to the Russians and their mediator to take the next step to a temporary cease fire that may lead to a final peace agreement.

IMO the Zelensky cease fire comment was more about showing the US they were "serious" than any type of direct overture to Russia looking for a response. Could be wrong

There's still a couple of steps in between. The minerals deal needs to be signed to bind Ukraine and the U.S. Then the US and EU need to get back on the same page to demonstrate solidarity.

Agree with all of that, however, this message lays out to the US admin what Ukraine is looking for in order for negotiations to go further. Security guarantees gets Zelensky to the table re: the mineral rights agreement.

That wouldnt make much sense considering the Oval Office meltdown was in direct response to Z asking for those securities.
At least that's how it all appears to me.

I'm under the impression the minerals deal needs to be signed before the US even bothers to take this any further.

Then no deal is imminent. Zelensky would be foolish to sign over his country's rights without those guarantees.

Foolish or not, that is how the statement reads.

 

[ghostguy123]

It's up to the Russians and their mediator to take the next step to a temporary cease fire that may lead to a final peace agreement.

IMO the Zelensky cease fire comment was more about showing the US they were "serious" than any type of direct overture to Russia looking for a response. Could be wrong

There's still a couple of steps in between. The minerals deal needs to be signed to bind Ukraine and the U.S. Then the US and EU need to get back on the same page to demonstrate solidarity.

Agree with all of that, however, this message lays out to the US admin what Ukraine is looking for in order for negotiations to go further. Security guarantees gets Zelensky to the table re: the mineral rights agreement.

That wouldnt make much sense considering the Oval Office meltdown was in direct response to Z asking for those securities.
At least that's how it all appears to me.

I'm under the impression the minerals deal needs to be signed before the US even bothers to take this any further.

Then no deal is imminent. Zelensky would be foolish to sign over his country's rights without those guarantees.

No he wouldn't. If anything, giving the US a stake in part of the economic plan there would give us great incentive to help make sure we get to actually set workers on that part of their land, which won't be done if it's occupied by Russia.

Exactly what kind of guarantees is he expecting? It's not like we are gonna fly in, dig everything up, and leave next week. That operation will take years.

 

[CGRdrJoe]

That was the strategy toward China in the 1990s and has come back to bite us.

It has? How?

Really? If your reaction is that China hasn't increasingly become a huge threat to the U.S. over the last 25 years, I'd suggest doing some outside reading. I'm not really interested in engaging in a back and forth on that.

I'm thinking we are at or close to the apex of Chinese influence and threat to the US. Their economy is propped up with government subsidies and their population is aging out quickly. These factors are pushing anxiety and urgency for them to be more bold on the world stage while they still have the teeth to do it. Could/might be wrong, it's all kind of subjective guess work since they are a little tight lipped about their government

I think our leaders agree, 2028 is the date our leadership has put on China to either initiated war or for them to head's toward irrelevance for a while. That said their capabilities aren't quite there yet.

 

[beer 30]

That was the strategy toward China in the 1990s and has come back to bite us.

It has? How?

Really? If your reaction is that China hasn't increasingly become a huge threat to the U.S. over the last 25 years, I'd suggest doing some outside reading. I'm not really interested in engaging in a back and forth on that.

I'm thinking we are at or close to the apex of Chinese influence and threat to the US. Their economy is propped up with government subsidies and their population is aging out quickly. These factors are pushing anxiety and urgency for them to be more bold on the world stage while they still have the teeth to do it. Could/might be wrong, it's all kind of subjective guess work since they are a little tight lipped about their government

I think our leaders agree, 2028 is the date our leadership has put on China to either initiated war or for them to head's toward irrelevance for a while. That said their capabilities aren't quite there yet.

Even with their seemingly herculean ability to move masses of people toward a singular goal, they simply can't **** their way out of the fast approaching decline in population. I suppose they could be growing people since they don't seem to have a hesitancy when it comes to genetically altering folks/things but I kinda doubt it. And from the cursory knowledge I have on the subject, they have about decade to **** or get off the pot. And they are about 3-4 years into that decade depending on who you listen to.

Most all of the Asian countries are in the same boat, some better than China, some worse.

Why Women in Asia Are Having Fewer Babies

The number of babies born in Japan, South Korea and China is plummeting. Here's why it's so hard to reverse the trend.

time.com

For those of you who like visuals

 

[bcat01]

Sounds like mineral deal could be signed before 9pm. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-ukraine-prepare-sign-minerals-deal-tuesday-sources-say-2025-03-04/

 

[Stoneworker]

Sounds like mineral deal could be signed before 9pm. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-ukraine-prepare-sign-minerals-deal-tuesday-sources-say-2025-03-04/

There is lots of significance to having it signed by 9pm. Just saying

And to further speculate, I'd say there's a good chance the pause on military aid will be lifted as well

 

[Joe Bryant]

Initial proposal from Ukraine on cease fire...

As part of the "first stages" of a deal, Zelensky proposed moving forward with the release of prisoners by both Russia and Ukraine, a "truce in the sky" that will freeze missile and long-range drone attacks, and no strikes on energy and other civilian infrastructure. He said the initial deal could also include a "truce in the sea."

Please post links for all news.

 

[Stoneworker]

Initial proposal from Ukraine on cease fire...

As part of the "first stages" of a deal, Zelensky proposed moving forward with the release of prisoners by both Russia and Ukraine, a "truce in the sky" that will freeze missile and long-range drone attacks, and no strikes on energy and other civilian infrastructure. He said the initial deal could also include a "truce in the sea."

Please post links for all news.

It was in the previous post. I separated for clarity

 

[the moops]

There is lots of significance to having it signed by 9pm. Just saying

What is the 9 PM significance?

 

[Stoneworker]

There is lots of significance to having it signed by 9pm. Just saying

What is the 9 PM significance?

Speech tonight

 

[[icon]]

Sounds like mineral deal could be signed before 9pm. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-ukraine-prepare-sign-minerals-deal-tuesday-sources-say-2025-03-04/

Odds this is like the other “deal” that was simply a deal to make a deal, with zero teeth to it?

This reads more like Trump campaigning publicly to get something done, but Zelensky likely isn’t signing anything binding without some level of security guaranteed which Trump seems unwilling to give (for reasons obvious to most but are being discussed on the discord not here).

 

[sho nuff]

Sounds like mineral deal could be signed before 9pm. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-ukraine-prepare-sign-minerals-deal-tuesday-sources-say-2025-03-04/

There is lots of significance to having it signed by 9pm. Just saying

And to further speculate, I'd say there's a good chance the pause on military aid will be lifted as well

Id speculate that is part if it yes. Got some security guarantees from Europe…ensure he gets the financial and weapons backing from the US as needed to secure a ceasefire with Russia.

 

[Joe Schmo]

Full text of the minerals deal as of 02.26.25

Not sure if already posted

 

[Joe Bryant]

Initial proposal from Ukraine on cease fire...

As part of the "first stages" of a deal, Zelensky proposed moving forward with the release of prisoners by both Russia and Ukraine, a "truce in the sky" that will freeze missile and long-range drone attacks, and no strikes on energy and other civilian infrastructure. He said the initial deal could also include a "truce in the sea."

Please post links for all news.

It was in the previous post. I separated for clarity

In every post with a news blurb, please post the link.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Hi @Dezbelief - can you please share the link for the discord here?

 

[Ben & Jerry's]

There is lots of significance to having it signed by 9pm. Just saying

What is the 9 PM significance?

Trumps speech tonight where he gets to tout the deal and his ssupporters get to continue touting him for the nobel peace prize he wants so badly.

I ssee what you did there.

 

[Stoneworker]

Full text of the minerals deal as of 02.26.25

Not sure if already posted

The following were notable...

This one acknowledges Russia as the aggressor (contrary to the recent U.N. squabble)

* WHEREAS the United States of America has provided significant financial and material support to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022;​

​

This one at least nods to future security agreement in a manner that should be acceptable to U.S. at the present time

* The Government of the United States of America supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace. Participants will seek to identify any necessary steps to protect mutual investments, as defined in the Fund Agreement.​

 

[Captain Cranks]

Hi @Dezbelief - can you please share the link for the discord here?

Link It stays active for 7 days. Those who try it after that will need a new link.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine 'will be impacted by the non-supply of Patriot missiles'

Ben Barry, a senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, has been speaking to our colleagues on BBC Radio 4's World at One programme about the possible impact on Ukraine of the pause in military aid.

"I think, in terms of military capability, the thing that will worry Ukraine most is the non-supply of Patriot missiles, which have this unique capability to intercept incoming ballistic missiles and have more capability in this, than anything that Europe’s got."

The other two capabilities are long-range artillery and the short-range ballistic missiles which again, Europe doesn’t supply, he says.

Ukraine ramps up efforts to reduce reliance on US support

Government sources say 40% of the weapons being used on the frontline are now produced in Ukraine. They hope last year’s US$9bn in defence output will double in the coming years.

They hail drone production as a major success. A senior Ukrainian defence official tells the BBC that 95% of reconnaissance, strike, and FPV drones are now assembled domestically, instead of being imported from China or the US.

Ukraine now fully meets its needs for armoured vehicles, mortars, and artillery systems, according to Vladyslav Belbas, the head of leading private defence firm, Ukraine Armour. Domestic factories also supply much of the country’s Soviet-calibre ammunition.

Despite these advances, Ukrainian sources acknowledge that they don’t have an alternative to certain high-tech American systems like Patriot air defences.

“We are working on a replacement. But there are only about five countries in the world that produce their own air defence systems, so replacing the American ones will be quite difficult,” a Ukrainian military source tells the BBC.

https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1896983838967918841

Eutelsat, the owner of OneWeb, a rival to Starlink, said on Tuesday that it was “actively collaborating with European institutions and business partners”, adding that it had equipment that could be “deployed swiftly in Ukraine to connect the most critical missions and infrastructures”.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1896669775343829071

"General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has ordered the suspension of the head of a training centre and the commander of a military unit in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, whose training ground was struck by Russian forces on 1 March, resulting in fatalities and casualties among Ukrainian servicemen."

 

[Don't Toews Me]

A New and More Deadly Drone on Russia’s Battlefields

“There’s been a huge surge in their drone numbers lately, and so many different ‘birds’ in the air, including a lot of fiber-optic drones that you can’t jam,” said Anatoliy, the commander of a mortar battery from Ukraine’s 92nd Separate Assault Brigade, who was transferred from Kharkiv to Kursk to help counter relentless Russian assaults.

“We’ve already lost a lot of equipment,” he said. “They’re constantly dropping KABs [guided aerial bombs] and launching a ton of first-person view (FPV) drones.”

Amid intense fighting, the battle for Russia’s Kursk Oblast has become a proving ground for new technologies and a center for drone warfare innovation. Ukraine’s General Staff has reported nearly 40,000 Russian casualties in six months, including more than 16,000 killed, along with the capture of over 900 enemy combatants.

Alongside the drones, “they’re throwing waves of meat at us,” Anatoliy said. Kursk is also where Moscow deployed troops lent by North Korea, showing how desperate Russian President Vladimir Putin is to reclaim Ukrainian-occupied territory.

Russia started using fiber-optic drones in Ukraine in the spring of 2024. At first, Kyiv did not see them as necessary for the battlefield but, as technology became increasingly effective at disrupting standard drone communications, they realized the need to adapt. Now Ukraine is aggressively developing its own to counter the enemy’s growing use of them.

Initially, drones relied on wireless signals, prompting both sides to deploy electronic warfare systems to jam them. Now, the shift to fiber-optic has become the latest front in the ongoing battle for superiority.

Unlike traditional drones, fiber-optic FPVs are linked to their operators through cables. “The main advantage is their immunity to electronic warfare and jamming, while also providing excellent video quality,” said Samuel Bendett, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

But this advantage comes with trade-offs. “Since these tactical drones must carry a fiber-optic spool, they become larger, heavier, and slower, making them vulnerable to countermeasures such as short-range firearms, kinetic attacks, and physical defenses,” he said.

As well as being unjammable, the drones are hard to detect as they emit no radio signals. The cables can also stretch up to 10km (6.2 miles), with newer models reaching even further. But this also poses a risk to the drone unit, as the cables can reveal your location. In one instance, a Ukrainian drone unit traced fiber optic cables back to a Russian drone base and successfully targeted it.

They carry similarly lethal munitions to radio-controlled drones, including warheads from RPG rockets, and are typically larger, using 10-inch rather than 7-inch propellers so they can carry heavier payloads and larger batteries.

“While fiber-optic FPVs are bigger and more expensive, they are designed to go after bigger targets, including very valuable self-propelled artillery,” said Roy Gardiner , an open source weapons researcher. “Since electronic warfare jammers cannot counter fiber-optic FPVs, artillery will likely have to move farther back to stay protected.”

Zelensky offers partial ceasefire with Russia to restart peace talks

A Ukrainian security official said it remains unclear what the U.S. pause would mean exactly, since there have not been any official statements explaining it. But he agreed that in the immediate term, air defense systems would be hardest hit.
Ukrainian troops would be able to hold the front line for several more months if Europe is not immediately able to fill gaps left by the United States, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. “In terms of our ability to keep fighting in Donbas and in the south, it’s not nice, but it’s not like we are going to collapse because of that.”
He said what was most critical for the ability of Ukraine’s armed forces to fight is the provision of satellite intelligence, and that if it isn’t impacted, the fallout for now would be minimal.
Also of concern is the possibility that the United States could revoke its permissions to use missiles and fighter jets to strike targets inside Russia.

Ukraine willing to sign minerals deal days after Trump-Zelenskyy agreement fell apart

Ukrainian officials have indicated to their U.S. counterparts they are willing to sign a key minerals agreement, days after the original plan to sign the deal at the White House imploded in an acrimonious Oval Office meeting between President Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vice President JD Vance.

Multiple sources said a deal is not finalized. And the parameters of the agreement could change because the president is now holding out for a "bigger, better deal," said a person familiar with the talks, granted anonymity to speak frankly about the details of the back-and-forth.

Administration officials told CBS there was no plan Tuesday afternoon for Mr. Trump or his top advisers to sign a deal.

Germany moves to rewrite debt rules to unleash defense spending

Europe’s most powerful economy is poised to take a major step to bolster its defense capabilities, with Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz announcing a plan to partly exempt defense spending from the country’s constitutional fiscal restraints.

“In view of the threats to our freedom and peace on our continent,” Merz said Tuesday evening in Berlin, the motto “whatever it takes” must now apply to the country’s defense.

Merz proposed that defense spending above 1 percent of gross domestic product be exempted from the restrictions of Germany’s constitutional debt brake, which limits the structural budget deficit to 0.35 percent of gross domestic product, except in emergencies. He did not provide details on how additional defense spending capacity would be used.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Just to say thank you to @Don't Toews Me for keeping this news focused so long. It's why it's been able to survive this long.