*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (5 Viewers)

[fatness]

'Those were our planes' — Belgorod resident says Russian warplane bombed civilian area, alleged intercept shows

A resident of Russia's Belgorod Oblast expressed outrage after a Russian warplane purportedly dropped a bomb on civilian property, according to an alleged intercepted phone call released by Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) on Aug. 10. "It's terrible. At five o'clock, there was a huge explosion," a woman is heard saying in the recording. "And those were our planes. They were spotted on radar, and to avoid getting hit, they dropped it (a bomb) on a vegetable garden. Why are they flying over populated areas?" The woman does not mention any injuries as a result of the incident. The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify the authenticity of the audio.

Incidents of Russian munitions falling on Russian territory have occurred repeatedly during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Washington Post reported last year that Russian aircraft dropped glide bombs on domestic targets nearly 40 times between April 2023 and April 2024. One of the most notable incidents occurred in April 2023, when a Russian bomb misfired and created a massive crater in downtown Belgorod.

 

[fatness]

EU to channel $1.7 billion from frozen Russian assets to repay Ukraine's loans

The EU has received a third 1.6-billion-euro ($1.9 billion) tranche in windfall profits from frozen Russian central bank assets and will allocate 95% of it, over 1.5 billion euro ($1.7 billion), to repay Ukraine’s loans. Ukraine receives funds from frozen Russian assets under the Group of Seven's (G7) Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) mechanism. Within the ERA initiative, Ukraine is expected to get $50 billion in loans that will be repaid using future profits from frozen Russian assets.

The EU received 1.6 billion euros ($1.9 billion) in windfall profits on Aug. 8 from frozen Russian central bank assets held in the bloc's central securities depositories, according to European Pravda. This marks the third such transfer, covering income generated in the first half of 2025. Previous tranches were disbursed in July 2024 and April 2025.

 

[Orange&Blue]

Ukraine’s Drones Prove America’s $175B Golden Dome Isn’t Enough. Here’s Why — UNITED24 Media https://share.google/JCOGz7X9PdsbCvXAj


Except as part of the Golden Dome there is already work beginning on a dubbed "under dome" which would be to protect high value areas from drone attacks like we saw. The future of air defense is layers.

Golden dome is impossible, impractical, and a waste of $$$.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine’s Drones Prove America’s $175B Golden Dome Isn’t Enough. Here’s Why — UNITED24 Media https://share.google/JCOGz7X9PdsbCvXAj


Except as part of the Golden Dome there is already work beginning on a dubbed "under dome" which would be to protect high value areas from drone attacks like we saw. The future of air defense is layers.

Golden dome is impossible, impractical, and a waste of $$$.

Disagreed. A lot of the technology that would be needed is already in use in Aegis, THAAD, Patriot, and C-RAM if not using these systems as part of the system. The technology is not a huge blind leap. I recall that same arguments about Patriot and THAAD all along their development cycles.

SpaceX lowers what would previously have made space based systems cost prohibitive.

In order to keep deterrence edge that the US has- a comprehensive air defense system that protects the homeland is needed.

 

[beer 30]

SpaceX lowers what would previously have made space based systems cost prohibitive.

Well it did in the before time.

 

[Chadstroma]

SpaceX lowers what would previously have made space based systems cost prohibitive.

Well it did in the before time.

I read that 10 times and I am still confused on what you are saying.

 

[beer 30]

SpaceX lowers what would previously have made space based systems cost prohibitive.

Well it did in the before time.

I read that 10 times and I am still confused on what you are saying.

The relationship with SpaceX has changed over the last few months, no?

 

[Chadstroma]

SpaceX lowers what would previously have made space based systems cost prohibitive.

Well it did in the before time.

I read that 10 times and I am still confused on what you are saying.

The relationship with SpaceX has changed over the last few months, no?

SpaceX has slashed the cost of launching things to space by about 70%. A huge reduction in cost for any space based missile defense application

 

[beer 30]

SpaceX lowers what would previously have made space based systems cost prohibitive.

Well it did in the before time.

I read that 10 times and I am still confused on what you are saying.

The relationship with SpaceX has changed over the last few months, no?

SpaceX has slashed the cost of launching things to space by about 70%. A huge reduction in cost for any space based missile defense application

Yea you're missing my point. My comments are relating to Mr. Musk's current relationship with the current administration.

:whoosh emoji:

 

[Dezbelief]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/57920

Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) launched a precision drone strike on Russia’s Arzamas Instrument-Building Plant in Nizhny Novgorod, a key military-industrial facility supplying components for cruise missiles used against Ukrainian cities.

Nizhny Novgorod Oblast is located in central Russia, northeast of Moscow and lies about 760 kilometers (471 miles) from Ukraine’s border.

According to preliminary reports, at least four SBU drones hit the facility, which belongs to the Tactical Missiles Corporation, a key state-owned enterprise supplying Russia’s missile program.

Earlier on Monday, Kyiv Post reported that on Sunday, Aug. 10, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (HUR) carried out a long-range drone attack on the Lukoil-Ukhtaneftepererabotka oil refinery in Russia’s Komi Republic — more than 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles) from the Ukrainian border.

According to HUR, the strike hit an oil products reservoir, causing a spill, and damaged a gas and gas condensate processing unit used to produce propane-butane and gasoline.

 

[Chadstroma]

SpaceX lowers what would previously have made space based systems cost prohibitive.

Well it did in the before time.

I read that 10 times and I am still confused on what you are saying.

The relationship with SpaceX has changed over the last few months, no?

SpaceX has slashed the cost of launching things to space by about 70%. A huge reduction in cost for any space based missile defense application

Yea you're missing my point. My comments are relating to Mr. Musk's current relationship with the current administration.

:whoosh emoji:

I got it.. but it has no bearing on what I am talking about so I chose to ignore it and educate you instead on the actual subject matter.

 

[beer 30]

SpaceX lowers what would previously have made space based systems cost prohibitive.

Well it did in the before time.

I read that 10 times and I am still confused on what you are saying.

The relationship with SpaceX has changed over the last few months, no?

SpaceX has slashed the cost of launching things to space by about 70%. A huge reduction in cost for any space based missile defense application

Yea you're missing my point. My comments are relating to Mr. Musk's current relationship with the current administration.

:whoosh emoji:

I got it.. but it has no bearing on what I am talking about so I chose to ignore it and educate you instead on the actual subject matter.

Whatever you say man, you own the thread. Moving on

 

[Orange&Blue]

Ukraine’s Drones Prove America’s $175B Golden Dome Isn’t Enough. Here’s Why — UNITED24 Media https://share.google/JCOGz7X9PdsbCvXAj


Except as part of the Golden Dome there is already work beginning on a dubbed "under dome" which would be to protect high value areas from drone attacks like we saw. The future of air defense is layers.

Golden dome is impossible, impractical, and a waste of $$$.

Disagreed. A lot of the technology that would be needed is already in use in Aegis, THAAD, Patriot, and C-RAM if not using these systems as part of the system. The technology is not a huge blind leap. I recall that same arguments about Patriot and THAAD all along their development cycles.

SpaceX lowers what would previously have made space based systems cost prohibitive.

In order to keep deterrence edge that the US has- a comprehensive air defense system that protects the homeland is needed.

Sorry, you are wrong.

Any system fielded or in development will be overcome with a focused attack with the speed of today's systems. True hypersonic weapons are not your ballistic missiles of predictable paths. Once you breach one spot the entire countryside is at risk.

Look at the typical carrier strike group by the US. It consists of 5 ships with Aegis systems. Powerful, yes. but even they are expected to overwhelmed and destroyed. If 5 billion dollar systems of the best technology we have can be overwhelmed defending one singular target you can guarantee an entire shield trying to cover the US will as well.

Want further proof, look at Israel. Thankfully Iran missile attacks where ballistic, few, and inaccurate. Still, Israel with THAAD, patriot, homegrown, numerous warnings, hundreds of defending aircraft and a relatively small area to defend had areas that were overwhelmed.

I don't think people realize the speed of these missiles. It doesn't just impact your response time, it also impacts your ability to support areas of focus.

Not only is speed an issue, defending requires you to have at least a 2x missile advantage. Hell, even the GBD requires four interceptors to get it's lofty 95% interception rate. The amount of space to defend, the speed of attack systems, the ability of systems to avoid strong points and focus on overwhelming weak spots, and need to have 2x number of defending missiles means that the amount of money required to build a competent system will be in the trillions.

And I'm not even addressing the ISR aspect of trying to find these before they launch. The fact that China can have 20+ launchers on a cargo ship and have literally hundreds on the Pacific at even given moment. It's a simple math game that we can't afford.

 

[fatness]

I got it.. but it has no bearing on what I am talking about so I chose to ignore it and educate you instead on the actual subject matter.

What the hell does the hypothetical Golden Dome have to do with Russia's invasion of Ukraine?
What the hell does SpaceX have to do with Russia's invasion of Ukraine?
And in case that comes across like I'm asking for more information/promotion on those 2 topics, I'm not. I'm asking for less.

 

[fatness]

Trump Says He’s Going to Alaska to See What Putin ‘Has in Mind’

President Trump set the lowest possible bar for his meeting with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Friday, declaring that “probably in the first two minutes I’ll know exactly whether or not a deal can get done,” and insisting he was ready to walk away from the talks and let the two sides continue to fight it out. In a rambling news conference, Mr. Trump reiterated that he planned to negotiate what he called “land swaps” and batted away the statements over the weekend by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, that his country’s Constitution prohibited him from giving away land to an invader. In describing the meeting, Mr. Trump told reporters that “I’m going to Russia on Friday,” and repeated a version of the same statement several minutes later. In fact, the meeting is set to take place in Alaska, which has not been part of Russia since 1867, when it was sold to the United States for $7.2 million.

I have absolutely no idea what will happen Friday, if the summit actually happens.

 

[Chadstroma]

I got it.. but it has no bearing on what I am talking about so I chose to ignore it and educate you instead on the actual subject matter.

What the hell does the hypothetical Golden Dome have to do with Russia's invasion of Ukraine?
What the hell does SpaceX have to do with Russia's invasion of Ukraine?
And in case that comes across like I'm asking for more information/promotion on those 2 topics, I'm not. I'm asking for less.

Fairly simple... lessons learned in Ukraine have a direct impact on US military decisions and shaping heading forward as does the rearming of Europe. It does not take a lot of effort to see that. That is the hell.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia makes sudden advance in Ukraine before Trump-Putin summit, maps show

Russian forces have made a sudden thrust into eastern Ukraine near the coal mining town of Dobropillia, a move that may be designed to increase the pressure on Kyiv to give up land as the U.S. and Russian presidents prepare to meet.
Ukraine's authoritative DeepState war map showed on Tuesday that Russian forces had advanced by at least 10 km (six miles) north in two prongs in recent days, part of their drive to take full control of Ukraine's Donetsk region.
The advance is one of the most dramatic in the last year. DeepState said the Russians had surged forward near three villages on a section of the frontline associated with the Ukrainian towns of Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk, which Moscow is trying to encircle by exploiting Kyiv's lack of manpower.
"The situation is quite chaotic, as the enemy, having found gaps in the defence, is infiltrating deeper, trying to quickly consolidate and accumulate forces for further advancement," DeepState said on its Telegram channel.

Pasi Paroinen, a military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group, said the situation had escalated rapidly, with Russian forces infiltrating past Ukrainian lines to a depth of roughly 17 km (10 miles) during the past three days.
"Forwardmost Russian units have reportedly reached the Dobropillia – Kramatorsk road T0514 and Russian infiltration groups have also been reported near Dobropillia proper," he wrote on X.

Russian breach sparks alarm on Ukraine’s eastern front

Ukrainian and western military analysts said that Russian forces had advanced nearly 15km over the past few days along a narrow corridor parallel to Dobropillia, a coal mining town turned key logistical hub north of the stronghold of Pokrovsk that Russian troops have nearly encircled.

“Russia’s recent tactical breakthrough north of Pokrovsk is unsurprising given the lack of cohesive defensive lines, and could further develop negatively,” said Mike Kofman, a military analyst and senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The Russian advance has triggered a wave of criticism online from Ukrainian military figures and volunteers.
They have been warning about a gradual weakening of defensive lines caused by months of incessant Russian assaults and the increasing use of strike drones to target Ukrainian logistics behind the frontline. They add that this has been exacerbated by a manpower shortage that has left depleted holdouts.
“The situation unfolding in the Donetsk region is the result of actions or inaction that has been constantly warned about . . . for a year and a half,” said Taras Chmut, founder of Come Back Alive, one of the largest Ukrainian charities providing weapons to the military.
Bohdan Krotevych, former chief of staff of the Azov brigade and a National Guard lieutenant colonel, made a public appeal to Zelenskyy.
“Mr President, I sincerely don’t know what exactly is being reported to you, but I’m informing you: on the Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka line, without exaggeration, it’s complete chaos,” he wrote on social media. “And this chaos has been growing for a long time, worsening with each passing day.”
Warning of the penetration of Ukraine’s defences on the eastern front, he added: “A stable line of combat contact, as such, effectively doesn’t exist.”

The Centre For Defence Strategies (CDS), a Ukrainian security think-tank, said in a note on Monday that the situation around Dobropillia was of “particular concern” because a Russian advance northwards would also make it harder to defend the towns of Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka.
Some observers said the situation could be explained by Ukraine’s thinly manned defensive lines rather than new Russian tactics.
Stanislav Bunyatov, a Ukrainian serviceman and military blogger, said on Telegram “the entire defence line is like a sieve”.

Russian Military Makes Surprise Push in Ukraine Ahead of Trump Talks

An officer serving in Ukraine’s Azov Brigade in the area said the Russians found a gap in Ukrainian lines this week after weeks of probing attacks, and then used their vast reserves of manpower to break through the lines.

The officer described Kyiv’s forces detecting around 150 Russian infantry soldiers daily, but said that a lack of skilled drone pilots meant they were only able to kill a fraction of them.

News of the Russian advance led to swift condemnations of Ukrainian command among some soldiers and activists.

Ukrainian soldiers say military leaders waste men on risky assaults, with little strategic value and less chance of success. Requests to retreat from exhausted or surrounded units are often denied, leading to unnecessary losses. Decisions are centralized, soldiers say, leaving low-level officers reluctant to take steps that might save their men for fear of punishment.

The result is a growing shortage of men, especially infantry, which Russia is now exploiting.

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1955056055203008576

A few more notes on Pokrovsk. Penetrations and developing envelopments rarely begin with a local commander’s decision. They stem from deeper problems on strategic level - starting with a shortage of manpower, itself the result of ineffective recruitment and a lack of trust:
2/ If units are only 25% manned but spread out as if they were fully staffed, and if there aren’t enough drones or trained pilots, then blaming a battalion or brigade commander is nothing more than scapegoating.
3/ Holding drills near the border or front lines under enemy drone surveillance, resulting in missile strikes, digging trenches in open fields, and similar acts of negligence all erode trust in leadership and, ultimately, weaken mobilization.

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1955135535900659856

Please refer to my note from four days ago - this is critical. In both 2014 and 2015, Russia launched major offensives ahead of negotiations to gain leverage. The current situation is serious, but far from the collapse some suggest. So, what is actually happening on the ground?
2/ A collapse, in military terms, means a loss of command and control, a breakdown in battlefield awareness, and an inability to regroup, withdraw in an organized fashion, or coordinate with units. To the best of my knowledge, none of these conditions are currently present.
3/ The situation more closely resembles events of May 2024, when Russian forces slipped through unprepared Ukrainian defenses along the border and advanced nearly 10 kilometers. That incursion was eventually contained and remained a localized pocket.
4/ At this moment, there is insufficient information to determine whether Ukrainian forces have the resources to contain Russian forces. The Russian grouping assembled in the Pokrovsk direction reportedly numbers more than 100,000 troops, raising the risk of further expansion.
5/ The sequence is simple: identify a weak point in the enemy’s defenses, penetrate it, widen the breach, and then deploy exploitation forces into the operational space to achieve operational goals via manoeuvre. Currently, the Russians have located and penetrated a weak point.
6/ They must still expand the breach and commit their exploitation forces. Only then would this qualify as an operational breakthrough and, if subsequent manoeuvres succeed and evolve into a collapse of defences, resulting in chaos and loss of unit cohesion.
7/ To summarize, the situation could undeniably deteriorate to a catastrophic level, with far worse consequences, a plausible scenario given the lead-up to negotiations. That said, we are not there yet, and the coming days will show whether this penetration can be contained.

Foreign Recruits in Ukraine Are Killed in a Strike on a Training Camp

At least a dozen foreign volunteers in Ukraine’s military were killed late last month when a Russian missile struck a training camp’s mess hall during lunchtime, in one of the deadliest attacks on foreign fighters of the war, according to soldiers with knowledge of the incident.
The Ukrainian Army, which only occasionally acknowledges missile strikes on military sites, confirmed that the attack had killed and wounded soldiers but declined to disclose details. Three soldiers, including one who witnessed the strike, described a harrowing assault that hit fresh recruits from the United States, Colombia, Taiwan, Denmark and other places.
The attack showed the risks that Ukraine has faced throughout the war when it has assembled soldiers at places like military academies, barracks and parade grounds, making them targets for Russian attacks.

https://x.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1955245761953685989

It could be a coincidence, but anecdotal evidence from conversations with Ukrainian soldiers suggests that Russian intelligence collection and dynamic targeting have improved over the past several months.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine Deals Major Blow to Russian Missile Industry, Hitting Helium Plant https://share.google/fY6ZcynPTAZvrCMCe

 

[Chadstroma]

Germany’s Rheinmetall to Boost 155mm Shell Production to 300,000 Per Year in Ukraine — UNITED24 Media https://share.google/tKZyJyGP77kcmLL6p

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/KofmanMichael/status/1955290392909255000

Russia’s advance near Dobropillia reflects the broader problematic dynamic, characterized by a lack of cohesive defensive lines, and undermanned units holding terrain, which can result in gradual then seemingly sudden shifts. Thread /1 (DeepStateMap)
The situation is still developing and hopefully will not result in a larger operational breakthrough, but this is a symptom of challenges and problems that many have been speaking to. I sought to cover them in this lengthy thread two weeks ago. /2
Advances around Pokrovsk had been blamed on RF diversionary-reconnaissance groups. But these are often just small assault infantry groups of 2/4/6 men, or motorcycle/buggy groups, which can bypass the porous defensive line if they can get past the drone coverage. 3/
The line is more of a series of pickets, often 2-3 man positions. Much of it is a gray area of overlapping defeat zones covering forward and behind these initial positions. Enemy assault groups seek to get through these positions and keep advancing. 4/
Ukraine has been holding the front with a deficit of infantry, and lack of reserves by depending on drone units. This has bought time, but is not sufficient to stabilize the front, or compensate for more fundamental challenges with force management and force generation. 5/
This recent advance appears to be made by dismounted infantry, and lightly motorized groups. Russian forces have progressed this year, and done so faster, with much lower use of armored fighting vehicles. This is the issue with treating armor availability as a key metric. 6/
This advance cut through a defensive line on the map, which in practice can now mean little, because this is not a war of trenches held by infantry, but of well masked positions for vehicles and small groups of infantry with large gaps in between. 7/
Prepared defenses, mines, still canalize the advance and mapping them is useful, but these lines on a map can also set the wrong expectations given battlefield dynamics. 8/
Hence numerous groups of 2-3 men can walk through a porous line, along with buggy or motorcycle assaults, if they are not intercepted by established defeat zones around those positions or AFU drone teams are being suppressed. 9/
Russian forces also used UMPK glide bombs extensively in this direction to help set the conditions for this breakthrough. Contrary to rumors that occasionally crop up here, there has not been a significant reduction in their efficacy. 10/
There are other accounts who do a better job of daily tracking and updates. Suffice it to say information is delayed, there are rumors flying around, but expect the situation to be worse than what is on DeepStateMap. 11/
Its important to also point to a broader problem which is the ‘not one step back’ policy, even when lacking the resources, in disadvantageous terrain, and near envelopment - rather than trading space for attrition or enabling commanders to conduct a mobile defense. 12/
Too often AFU units are forced to maintain untenable positions where the elastic defense is behind their picket positions rather than in front of them. It also leads to false reporting of positions, distrust, and creates perverse incentives that misinform the system. 13/
Another issue is costly counter attacks to regain lost positions, including those which were untenable in the first place, rather than focusing on stabilizing the front. This has led to losses among a steadily shrinking infantry component of the force. 14/
As @Tatarigami_UA writes, a collapse of the front is different in kind from a tactical breakthrough or breach. Could this advance lead to a collapse if mishandled? Yes, it could deteriorate further. But equally, it is too early to make that assessment. 15/
The defense of existing salients will prove even more difficult and this breakthrough can lead to an accelerated withdrawal from those positions. AFU is shifting units to counter the advance, but this is a sign of potentially worse things to come. 16/
From this point it is not difficult to see how this could further affect the defense of Donetsk, endangering Druzhkivka, then Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, especially considering the axis slowly pushing north of Lyman. 17/
Bottom line, its not clear yet how the situation will develop. The next few days will prove telling. But this advance is another indicator that drone units, while critical to the defense, can't fully compensate for observed challenges, or stabilize the front on their own.

North Koreans tell BBC they are being sent to work 'like slaves' in Russia

Thousands of North Koreans are being sent to work in slave-like conditions in Russia to fill a huge labour shortage exacerbated by Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, the BBC has learned.

Moscow has repeatedly turned to Pyongyang to help it fight the war, using its missiles, artillery shells and its soldiers.

Now, with many of Russia's men either killed or tied up fighting - or having fled the country - South Korean intelligence officials have told the BBC that Moscow is increasingly relying on North Korean labourers.

We interviewed six North Korean workers who have fled Russia since the start of the war, along with South Korean government officials, researchers and those helping to rescue the labourers.

They detailed how the men are subjected to "abysmal" working conditions, and how the North Korean authorities are tightening their control over the workers to stop them escaping.

One of the workers, Jin, told the BBC that when he landed in Russia's Far East, he was chaperoned from the airport to a construction site by a North Korean security agent, who ordered him not to talk to anyone or look at anything.

"The outside world is our enemy," the agent told him. He was put straight to work building high-rise apartment blocks for more than 18 hours a day, he said.

All six workers we spoke to described the same punishing workdays – waking at 6am and being forced to build high-rise apartments until 2am the next morning, with just two days off a year.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia to hold emergency talks with oil firms as fuel prices surge, media reports

The Russian government will convene an emergency meeting with top oil companies on Aug. 14 to address soaring fuel prices, Russian pro-government outlet Interfax reported on Aug. 12.

The move comes as gasoline prices in Russia have jumped nearly 50% since the start of the year, with Ai-95 setting record highs for five consecutive days.

Officials are reportedly weighing measures to keep retail gasoline prices from outpacing inflation, including increasing fuel sales quotas on the exchange. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who oversees energy policy, will lead the talks.

Sources told Russian pro-government media outlet Kommersant that shrinking reserves on the independent market have pushed prices to levels that cause losses for small gas stations, which must buy fuel on the exchange.

Gasoline prices have increased by 7% since early August, 32% since the start of summer, and 47% since January, according to the Saint Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange. Ai-92 gasoline is up 34% since late December, reaching its highest level since autumn 2023.

The price hike comes after Russia imposed a sweeping ban on gasoline exports, in effect until the end of August. According to Reuters, the ban aimed to stabilize the domestic market.

The surge in prices also comes as Ukraine continues long-range drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, key sources of revenue for Moscow's war. An oil refinery in Russia's Saratov Oblast owned by the energy giant Rosneft halted oil intake after an Aug. 10 strike sparked a fire.

Earlier this month, Ukrainian drones forced the Ryazan refinery to halve production and shut down the Novokuibyshevsk facility entirely, according to Reuters.

Why Russia's economy is beginning to falter

Another troubling sign: The budget deficit has exploded, reaching, according to the Finance Ministry, 4.9 trillion rubles (about €56 billion) at the end of July – a surge of 30% compared to the annual target set by the government. The economic slowdown, the drop in oil and gas revenues, as well as the depletion of reserve funds – practically exhausted after three years of war – make up a new reality: Cuts are coming. The Finance Ministry will find it difficult to slash spending on defense and security, which account for just over 40% of expenditures. The government will therefore have to reduce social contributions as well as support for civilian industries.

While overall budget spending has increased (20.8% in one year), revenues have dwindled. Oil and gas sales, which make up about one third of federal revenues, fell by 18.5% during the first seven months of the year. The main reason is the falling price of oil on the global market ($66.40 per barrel at the start of August, or about €51.80), with Russian crude falling even further due to its price cap at $47.60, imposed as part of the 18th package of sanctions recently adopted by the European Union. With the West refusing to buy its oil, Russia has redirected sales to China, India and Turkey, but it is exporting at rock-bottom prices. Circumventing sanctions is also costly for producers, who are forced to use multiple intermediaries.
For now, life in Moscow and other medium-sized cities in the Russian Federation still appears vibrant, with crowded restaurants, theaters and luxury shops. But the combination of several factors – declining revenues, high interest rates, persistent inflation – suggests the economy is in a tailspin. While the defense industry, well-fed by state orders, "runs like clockwork," according to Sergei Aleksashenko, a former vice president of the Central Bank of Russia (1995-1998), the civilian sector is struggling.
During the first seven months of 2025, entire segments of the civilian economy – metallurgy, mining, construction and the automotive industry – saw production decline. In the steel sector, MMK, the plant of Magnitogorsk, one of the world's largest steel producers and a leader in Russian ferrous metallurgy, reduced its output by 18% in the second quarter. For the period from January to June, its net profit plummeted by 88.8% compared to the same period in 2024.

Moreover, China, Moscow's main trade partner, increased its imports by 14% in 2024 but reduced its purchases from Russia by 7%. Finally, sanctions have made it difficult for Russian companies to access equipment and components from Europe, the United States and Japan, which they traditionally relied on. Having failed to overcome their dependence on Western equipment, companies have had to resort to "cannibalization" – dismantling several units in order to assemble a single working one.

Banks have also grown concerned about the rapid rise in unpaid loans. Between the beginning of 2022 and May 2025, corporate debt to banks nearly doubled. At the end of June, Bloomberg, citing sources in the banking sector, warned of the growing risks of a systemic banking crisis. Banks granted loans at reduced rates to support the Kremlin's war effort and are now threatened by "bad debts." Nearly half – 48 out of the 100 largest Russian banks – saw their financial results worsen in the first half of the year compared to 2024. Fifteen of them posted losses.
"With full access to the data of the banking system, I can confidently state that fears of a banking crisis are unfounded," said Elvira Nabioullina, governor of the Russian Central Bank, on July 3. But other officials are more worried. For example, Sberbank CEO German Gref sounded the alarm in June, warning that the toxic mix of soaring interest rates and an overvalued ruble was creating a "perfect storm" likely to stifle investment and drag the Russian economy into long-term decline.
A return to growth will not happen anytime soon. "Any future growth is only possible if labor productivity increases. But over the past 10 years, it has grown by just over 1% per year on average. Investment is needed, and that is difficult in wartime and with a key interest rate of 18%," said Dmitri Nekrasov, an expert at the Center for Analysis and Strategies in Europe.

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia may have breached Ukraine front lines ahead of Trump-Putin summit https://share.google/KfzaZK5v7NEMzVv76

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

In describing the meeting, Mr. Trump told reporters that “I’m going to Russia on Friday,” and repeated a version of the same statement several minutes later. In fact, the meeting is set to take place in Alaska, which has not been part of Russia since 1867, when it was sold to the United States for $7.2 million.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine’s Once Nimble Army Is Mired in Soviet Decision-Making

In the first year of Russia’s all-out invasion, Ukraine’s defenders repeatedly outmaneuvered a lumbering Russian army, relying on improvisation and the judgment of men in the field.

Three years on, Ukraine’s military has slipped back into a more rigid, top-down mode of fighting with roots in the Soviet era, creating mounting frustration about unnecessary casualties while hurting civilian morale and army recruitment. Without overhauls, the Soviet-style habits could undermine Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defense against Russia, which shows no sign of relenting in its quest to conquer the country.

Ukrainian officers and infantrymen complain of a centralized command culture that often punishes initiative and wastes men’s lives. Generals order repetitive frontal assaults that have little hope of success, and deny requests from beleaguered units to carry out tactical retreats and save their men. Casualties accumulate on operations with little strategic value.

“Our army is holding mainly thanks to the initiative of people up to the level of battalion commander,” said Maj. Oleksiy Pasternak, a veteran officer who argues the higher echelons need urgent change.

Privately, many Ukrainian soldiers repeat a bitter refrain: “Big Soviet army beats little Soviet army.”

Capt. Oleksandr Shyrshyn, a battalion commander in Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade, took his frustrations public. In May he denounced the army’s top brass on Facebook. Railing against “stupid” orders and losses, he spoke of pervasive fear in the army of generals who are “only capable of reprimands, investigations, imposing penalties.” Addressing the General Staff of Ukraine’s armed forces, he said: “I hope your children will also be in the infantry and will carry out your tasks.”

He told the Journal he was driven to speak out after his battalion was repeatedly ordered by senior commanders to launch assaults that were unrealistic for the unit’s limited means.

The final straw, said Shyrshyn, was an order for his men to go back into Kursk—a Russian region that Ukrainian forces had partly captured a year ago but ultimately had to withdraw from. The direction of the ordered attack was predictable and the Russians were prepared for it, he said. Wave after wave of Russian infantry counterattacks forced a retreat. Many men were killed, said Shyrshyn, including fresh, well-trained recruits, who are hard to come by. “They were young and motivated. I had hopes for them. Instead we just lost them.”

“We need to change our methods from quantity to quality,” Shyrshyn said. “We can’t beat Russia with our resources. They are bigger—we need to be better.”

Up and down the 750-mile front line, many Ukrainian troops tell stories similar to Shyrshyn’s. One common experience: senior commanders have on a number of occasions refused to authorize a timely tactical retreat, leaving men in danger of encirclement and destruction. Front-line officers say such refusals show a wasteful attitude to men’s lives by senior ranks who don’t want to take the blame for losing ground.

Late last year, Lt. Col. Serhiy Kostyshyn wanted to withdraw his battalion of Ukraine’s Presidential Brigade from a badly exposed position in the southern part of the Donetsk region. He had intercepted Russian plans to surround the battalion, but staff headquarters kept telling him to stay put, even as larger Russian forces were outflanking the unit, he said. So Kostyshyn made his own decision.
Over three rain-sodden days, he conducted a fighting withdrawal. Most of the battalion escaped from the trap, but a platoon that stayed behind to cover the retreat was nearly wiped out.

For months afterward, Kostyshyn was investigated by military police and the SBU, Ukraine’s counterespionage service, for abandoning a position. Eventually the interrogations petered out, he said.

“If you’re dumb and obedient, they leave you alone,” Kostyshyn said. “It’s the Soviet tradition.”

Kostyshyn later won a promotion to deputy brigade commander. “Somebody high up probably saw the logic of my actions,” he said.

Soon, however, a more old-school command structure emerged. It made a controversial decision that had a lasting impact on morale: to defend the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine for nine months, feeding many experienced army brigades into a meat grinder. The battle for Bakhmut continued for long after it was clear that Ukrainian forces would have to withdraw from the shattered city, which they finally did in May 2023. It remains the deadliest battle of the war.

Gen. Syrskiy, then the head of ground forces, directed the grim attritional slugfest, earning him the nickname “the butcher” from the rank and file. Bakhmut began a worrying pattern for Ukraine’s army: It was choosing battles its limited manpower couldn’t afford, even though it was killing more Russians.

The 60-year-old Syrskiy, who became chief commander of the military in 2024, remains widely unpopular with Ukrainian soldiers, many of whom see him as the epitome of the Soviet syndrome: a Moscow-trained career officer who micromanages units on the ground, delaying retreats or ordering assaults that lead to morale-sapping casualties for tree lines or other objectives with little strategic value.

But many Ukrainian officers say the problems run deeper than Syrskiy. Staff headquarters still include many officers who trained in a Soviet-style military many years before the war. Because of the rapid expansion of the army, many were pulled out of retirement and don’t understand the fast-evolving, high-tech drone war on the ground, say veterans of the fighting since 2022.

Some officers say the situation is now improving as men with front-line experience rise to senior positions. “The change is not gigantic, but it’s happening,” said Lt. Col. Yehor Derevianko, who is commanding a battalion of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade, another battle-hardened unit fighting on the eastern front.

For years before Russia’s full-scale invasion, countries from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization arranged training for Ukrainian officers to help modernize the country’s military.

In 2022, Pasternak attended a course in the U.K. to study NATO concepts such as mission command, an approach to warfare where senior commanders set a goal but subordinates on the ground figure out how best to achieve it. It’s the antithesis of the top-down Soviet tradition.
Pasternak resigned earlier this year from the 108th Territorial Defense Brigade in frustration at commanders’ failure to follow the Western military methods.

“The NATO doctrine of mission command is absent from the whole army, except maybe for a few brigades,” he said. “They’re using the Soviet principles. They don’t trust the people under them.”

During Ukraine’s failed 2023 counteroffensive in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, generals from higher-level headquarters were shouting over the radio at brigade commanders, and even at sergeants on the battlefield, to attack again and again, even as units’ casualties were making them incapable of combat, Pasternak said.

He recalled a battle last year in which 14 Ukrainian infantrymen, supported by artillery and drone units in their rear, were defending buildings in the Zaporizhzhia region against attack by several hundred Russians with armor and drones. Senior commanders insisted that the position be held, he said.
What they didn’t realize was that another brigade had lost the area on their right flank, but hadn’t told anyone. The Russians came in from the side and killed all 14 infantrymen, he said.

Fear of being sacked often leads to brigade commanders not reporting that they’ve lost a position, said Pasternak and other officers.

But Kursk soon turned into another attritional battle. Russia brought in reinforcements, including its best drone units and some 10,000 North Korean troops.

“They started to cut off our logistics,” said Shyrshyn, whose 47th Mechanized Brigade took part in the incursion. “By winter we couldn’t continue the operation effectively.” He said he wrote reports describing the problems and proposing solutions, but commanders didn’t want to make hard decisions. “We needed to either change the situation on the battlefield, or withdraw. But we just waited, until everything started falling apart.”

Fear of making decisions led to a growing paralysis. Two men from the 41st Mechanized Brigade said their unit spotted a group of Russian soldiers out in the open and asked a commander for a mortar strike. But he refused until he had permission from higher up.
“If it doesn’t work, I’ll get blamed,” the commander said. By the time he got approval, the Russians had disappeared. The commander’s comment became a punchline among his men.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

For China, the Ukraine War Is a Laboratory

By serving as the essential economic and industrial enabler for Russia, China has gained a unique vantage point. It can assess how the components of military systems it is providing in huge numbers perform in combat, gather intelligence on the effectiveness of Ukrainian and Western weapons, and refine the concepts it will use to guide its own weapons development, military training, and organizational structures. All of these efforts will serve to ready the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) should it one day engage in a conflict with the United States.

The material facts on the ground are now too clear to ignore: Chinese motors are powering the drones that devastate Ukrainian positions, Chinese microelectronics are guiding Russian missiles, and Chinese machine tools are rebuilding Russia’s war machine. China’s hand in this conflict is now far too substantial for the United States to overlook.

For the PLA, which has not fought a major war in more than four decades, the conflict is an unparalleled source of insight. The PLA is gaining critical knowledge about modern warfare—from drone employment to electronic countermeasures—all without putting a single Chinese soldier in harm’s way. This torrent of information flows back to a centralized system designed to exploit it systematically—a system that can respond much more rapidly than the industrial-age procurement bureaucracy in the United States.

There are multiple reasons for this war’s enormous value to China. First, the battlefield is saturated with advanced Western military hardware and software. PLA intelligence is meticulously studying the performance of key US-made systems, from the Patriot air defense system to the HIMARS rocket artillery. They are also analyzing Ukraine’s diabolically clever employment of its own innovations, such as in “Operation Spiderweb,” a recent coordinated drone attack that used swarms of low-cost drones to damage or destroy nearly $7 billion in Russian strategic aircraft at airfields thousands of miles apart in the Russian Federation.

By observing how Russian forces—often equipped with Chinese components—respond to Ukrainian and Western systems and tactics, the PLA gains critical insights into how to counter them. This is particularly evident in the electronic warfare domain, where China can assess the effectiveness of Western jamming against its own hardware embedded in Russian systems, and vice versa, as Russia has long deployed advanced electronic warfare systems. Evidence suggests China’s learning is also not passive; in fact, Chinese state-backed hacking groups have aggressively targeted Russian defense institutes to exfiltrate battlefield data that Moscow had been unwilling to share.

Second, the war enables China to observe and adapt to new military concepts. This is not an isolated strategy; Beijing has used partner conflicts as proving grounds before, as seen in the May 2025 India-Pakistan skirmish, where Pakistan reportedly used Chinese-made J-10C jets and PL-15 missiles with considerable effect.

In Ukraine, the widespread use of drone swarms and asymmetric naval tactics provides a rich data set for PLA war planners. They are also closely analyzing Ukraine’s success with naval drones as a potential template for how Taiwan could resist a PLA invasion. And the stakes of a conflict to forcibly reunify with Taiwan would be immense, as Taiwan manufactures over 90 percent of the world’s most advanced logic chips. The loss of this production would trigger a global economic crisis estimated at as much as $10 trillion.

Third, China is closely observing the West’s use of unprecedented economic sanctions against Russia to guide its efforts to “sanction-proof” its own economy. By watching Russia adapt, Beijing is learning how to insulate its own financial systems and supply chains from similar pressure. It has, partly in response to what it has learned, dramatically increased the use of the yuan in bilateral trade, and it is building up its Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) as an alternative to SWIFT.

Russia says its demands are unchanged: full Ukrainian withdrawal from regions that Moscow claims

Russia said on Wednesday that its stance on ending the war in Ukraine has not changed since President Vladimir Putin set out his conditions last year: the full withdrawal of Kyiv's forces from key Ukrainian regions and the abandonment of its NATO ambitions.

After reports by some media that Washington understood Putin was ready to compromise on his territorial demands, the Russian Foreign Ministry's deputy spokesperson, Alexei Fadeev, was asked by reporters if Russia's position had changed or not.
"Russia's position remains unchanged, and it was voiced in this very hall just over a year ago, on June 14, 2024," Fadeev said, referring to a speech Putin delivered then at the foreign ministry.
At that time, in his fullest public remarks so far about the shape of a possible settlement, the Kremlin chief set out demands including the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the parts of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson that they still control.
Putin also said that Kyiv would have to officially notify Moscow that it was abandoning its plans to join the U.S.-led NATO military alliance, and that it intended to remain neutral and non-aligned.
In addition, Putin said that the rights and freedoms of Russian-speakers in Ukraine would have to be ensured, and the "realities" that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson were now part of Russia.
Putin has said his conditions would also have to be reflected in international agreements. At the time of his 2024 speech, Ukraine rejected his demands as tantamount to an absurd ultimatum.

https://x.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1955345969282723909

Russians have recently advanced deep in the area east of Dobropillia. The situation has concerning elements which can escalate it into a serious crisis, but at this stage we’re still not witnessing a disaster – and by definition, not even a breakthrough. I’ll explain. 1/
The situation had been deteriorating for some time. The Russians had been attempting to advance in the Dobropillia direction earlier this month. A gray zone had formed in the area, as the Ukrainians struggled to maintain a firm defence against the infiltrating enemy. 2/
Russia has an advantage in expendable manpower – once it finds a weak spot, it can aggressively try to exploit it by pushing more infantry into the area. Small infiltration groups will try to advance as far as possible, which is enabled by the porous Ukrainian defences. 3/
Dealing with Russian infiltration tactics can be challenging for the already attrited and understaffed defenders. Ukrainians have been relatively good at preventing crises from emerging this summer, but it was to be expected that at some point the problems would accumulate. 4/
The Russians managed to advance up to 10-15 km deep, but this can’t be described as a breakthrough yet. I’m not underestimating the situation or saying it isn’t still very difficult, but it’s important to put the known developments and details into the right context. 5/
A breakthrough would require armor. Russians are currently advancing in a relatively narrow area, and I have not seen any heavier armored vehicles operating in the salient. Bringing armor forward is difficult because of the drone-dominated dynamics on the battlefield. 6/
To break through and actually cause a more serious collapse in Ukrainian defenses, Russia would need to commit a mechanized echelon to exploit the initial success. As long as Ukraine prevents this, the AFU has a good chance of regaining control of the situation. 7/
Russia needs to solidify captured positions and widen the flanks of the current breach in order to bring heavier equipment and support weapons in. As the “spearhead” operates relatively deep, supporting and supplying the infiltration groups can soon become an issue. 8/
The situation should be resolvable with a successful counterattack, if the Ukrainians manage to gather enough reserves in the area before the Russians gain a stronger hold on the newly gained positions. It is, however, uncertain if the Ukrainians can actually do it. 9/
In the worst-case scenario, small Russian infantry groups supported with drones continue advancing all around the salient causing chaos within the Ukrainian defenses, making concentrated and well-directed counterattacks considerably more difficult. 10/
The situation near Dobropillia needs a solution soon in a way or another. If counterattacks and stabilization measures fail, tactical withdrawals from some endangered positions may need to be considered to shorten the frontline. 11/
Ukraine’s rapid and forced deployment of units from a limited reserve base may open up new possibilities for the Russians, as they’re likely seeking to exploit Ukraine's reactive state in other sectors of the front. An autumn full of difficult decisions may lie ahead. 12/

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1955559387726250364

GUR Deputy Chief Vadym Skibitskyi said Russia plans "to produce 79,000 Shahed-type unmanned aerial vehicles in 2025. If broken down by type, that’s 40,000 Geran-2 units, 5,700 Harpiya-1 units, and about 34,000 Gerbera and other decoy targets,"
"According to Skibitskyi, the situation with missiles in Russia is different — all missiles produced are immediately used. This trend is seen with the Kh-101, Kalibr, and Kinzhal missiles.

The accuracy of Russian missiles has improved. Previously, when attempting to strike the airfield in Starokostiantyniv, Khmelnytskyi region, Kinzhal missiles deviated by 3 to 15 kilometers. This was partly due to international sanctions as well as Russia’s inability to create its own navigation system.

'That’s why cruise missiles hit our civilian buildings. If you remember, even in 2022, when they struck the Artem plant in the Tatarka area of Kyiv, two or three times, a cruise missile hit a large civilian building instead. This is because, back in Soviet times, that building did not exist — they planned the strikes using maps from those old days,' Skibitskyi said.

Now, according to him, the situation has changed — Iskander missiles have become more accurate and maneuverable." 2/
"One of the strengths of the Russian Federation's armed forces is that they have operational reserves. They use them to carry out rotations and reinforce the most critical areas of the front. And, accordingly, to replenish the losses they suffer on the battlefield...

the Russian Federation's monthly recruitment plans are being fulfilled by at least 105-110%. To date, about 67% of the 343,000 they planned to recruit this year have already been recruited. And there is preliminary data that they have already decided to increase this figure by at least 15-17%...

In general, they currently have no problems with recruitment. They offer a generous social package and large payments for signing the first contract...

Look, they announced a partial mobilization only once – in the fall of 2022. They recruited 300,000. The rest they are recruiting without mobilization. That is, people are leaving, they are also being lured with benefits – for example, free education for children in higher education institutions, attractive mortgage terms, and so on.

And, importantly, families in the Russian Federation support this."

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 12, 2025

Russian forces continued to infiltrate Ukrainian defenses east and northeast of Dobropillya (northwest of Pokrovsk) using limited sabotage and reconnaissance groups on August 12. Russian forces have yet to be able to deploy reinforcements to hold and exploit this tactical penetration and will likely face obstacles in trying to do so. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on August 12 that Russian sabotage groups infiltrated Vesele, Rubizhne, Kucheriv Yar (all three northeast of Dobropillya), and Vilne (east of Dobropillya) and that Ukrainian forces had already destroyed some of these groups. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that several small Russian groups bypassed Ukrainian positions and tried to advance toward Zolotyi Kolodyaz (northeast of Dobropillya). The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Ukrainian military command allocated additional forces and means to the area. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on August 12 that the situation is most complicated near Dobropillya and that Russian forces operating without mechanized equipment advanced about 10 kilometers deep. The Ukrainian General Staff's report indicates that Russian forces recently advanced east of Dobropillya to Nove Shakhove and Stepy. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces also seized Nove Shakhove, Rubizhne, Ivanivka (both east of Dobropillya), and Dorozhie (southeast of Dobropillya) and advanced near Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Shakhove, Toretske (both east of Dobropillya), and Bilytske (southeast of Dobropillya) and in eastern Novyi Donbas (east of Dobropillya).
Ukrainian and Russian sources characterized the Russian forces operating east and northeast of Dobropillya as limited sabotage and reconnaissance groups that are hiding in basements, windbreaks, and forests in the area. Russian forces have been using tactics that rely on small fireteams that infiltrate the Ukrainian near rear by finding weak points in Ukrainian defenses, at which point the fireteams wait for more forces to accumulate and then attack to try to gain a foothold and consolidate. The Ukrainian Dnipro Grouping of Forces recently reported that Russian forces are constantly changing tactics and methods of deploying troops in the Pokrovsk direction and are leveraging numerical manpower superiority to infiltrate Ukrainian defenses with small infantry groups despite sustaining high casualties in these assaults. The Dnipro Grouping of Forces clarified that small group infiltrations are not an indicator of Russian forces establishing control over a given area and noted that such inaccurate conclusions lead to a misunderstanding of the situation in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces will likely attempt to employ this infiltration and accumulation tactic east and northeast of Dobropillya as well. The Russian penetration near Dobropillya is notably a deeper and faster tactical push than those that Russian forces have recently achieved, but Russia's ability to mature these tactical advances into an operational-level breakthrough in the near future is not certain. Ukrainian drone operations had been largely successful at holding back significant Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction since late 2024 and will likely continue to be an obstacle to Russia's deployment of reinforcements and ability to hold its positions. Russian forces will also have to contend with newly arrived Ukrainian reinforcements in the area.

Russian milbloggers, who often overinflate Russian advances, questioned Russia's ability to exploit the tactical penetration. Several Russian milbloggers urged caution on August 12, noting that Russian forces have yet to consolidate their positions and that the penetration is not a full-scale breakthrough yet.[8] A Russian milblogger and former Storm-Z instructor claimed that Russian forces infiltrated Ukrainian defenses in a "splayed" manner and that the depth of the penetration threatens Russia's ability to secure its flanks. The milblogger expressed concern about Russia's ability to close the pocket in the area, given Russia's high losses. The milblogger complained that Russian forces had not adequately integrated strike drone units and assault groups and that the Russian groups infiltrated gaps in Ukrainian defenses, mostly using Russia's "usual" highly attritional, infantry-led assaults. Another milblogger claimed that the penetration has significantly stretched the frontline and that Russian forces will only be able to turn the penetration into a "success" if Russian forces have enough manpower to introduce operational reserves and advance "correctly and in time." A Russian source claimed that infiltration missions have serious risks, as the infantry far from the front can only receive supplies via drones, and the main forces cannot support isolated infiltration groups. The source claimed that Russian forces will likely soon try to launch a subsequent attack with a larger group of forces to prevent Ukrainian forces from gaining the tactical initiative. A Ukrainian source stated that Ukrainian forces destroyed several Russian groups that had infiltrated the area and are gradually pushing back Russian forces that were trying to gain a foothold.

 

[fatness]

Why Surrendering a Key Eastern Region Would Be Hard for Ukraine

The Donbas region shaped some of the most brutal battles of World War II and continues to define the fiercely contested front today. In the current war, in places like Bakhmut and Avdiivka, Ukrainians held the line for years, forcing the Russians to pay a high price for every mile they moved forward. The two cities are the only major ones that Russia has taken since the first year of the war.

The cities still under Ukrainian control are connected by one road running north to south, forming a defensive line that prevents Russian forces from sweeping across the country. Giving up any of those cities “would effectively mean the collapse of this entire defensive line,” said Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center. Handing over the region would also give Moscow control of fortifications that Ukraine spent tens of millions of dollars constructing, as well as vital railway infrastructure and land rich in minerals and coal.

Beyond the dense industrial cities lies wide, open terrain that is a gateway to Ukraine’s heartland. Surrendering the Donbas without a fight would position Russian forces to renew their attacks and push to the west, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research group.

 

[fatness]

Trump and Putin Could Decide Others’ Fates, Echoing Yalta Summit

The world’s superpowers met in 1945 in the Black Sea port of Yalta to divide up Europe after the defeat of Nazi Germany. They drew lines on the map that tore apart countries, effectively delivered Eastern Europe to Soviet occupation and dismembered Poland. And none of those countries were represented or had a say.

As President Trump prepares to meet President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Friday in Alaska, there is more talk — and anxiety — among Ukrainians and Europeans about a second Yalta. They are not scheduled to be present, and Mr. Trump has said he plans to negotiate “land swaps” with Mr. Putin over Ukrainian territory.

“Yalta is a symbol of everything we fear,” said Peter Schneider, a German novelist who wrote “The Wall Jumper,” about the division of Berlin. At Yalta, the world itself was divided and “countries were handed to Stalin,” he said. “Now we see that Putin wants to reconstruct the world as it was at Yalta. For him, it begins with Ukraine, but that’s not his ending.”

Yalta, itself in Russian-annexed Crimea, has become a symbol for how superpowers can decide the fates of other nations and peoples. “It’s a linchpin moment, when the European world is divided in two and the fate of Europeans in the East is locked in without any possible say,” said Ivan Vejvoda, a Serb political scientist with the Institute for Human Sciences, a research institution in Vienna.

“Of course today’s world is different, but decisions are being made on behalf of third countries for whom this is an existential issue,” Mr. Vejvoda said.

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia tries to make sudden advance in Ukraine before Trump-Putin summit | Reuters https://share.google/rOtXUzOMHDIhKA7M9

 

[fatness]

Trump told Zelenskyy and allies he won't discuss territory divisions with Putin this week, sources say

President Donald Trump told European leaders during a call on Wednesday that he does not intend to discuss any possible divisions of territory when he meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska this week, according to two European officials and three other people briefed on the call. Trump said on the call, which also included Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, that he is going into the meeting with Putin with the goal of securing a ceasefire in Ukraine, those sources said. Trump and European leaders agreed that a ceasefire in Ukraine has to be implemented before peace negotiations can begin, the European officials and two other people briefed on the call said. Some of the European leaders were left with the impression from the call that Trump is not optimistic about the results of his meeting with Putin, they added.

With Putin being Putin, his reply is likely to be his usual "these conditions must be met for us to agree to a ceasefire". Where it goes after that, I can only guess. I hope it's increased sanctions and increased weapons supply.

 

[The Z Machine]

Trump told Zelenskyy and allies he won't discuss territory divisions with Putin this week, sources say

President Donald Trump told European leaders during a call on Wednesday that he does not intend to discuss any possible divisions of territory when he meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska this week, according to two European officials and three other people briefed on the call. Trump said on the call, which also included Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, that he is going into the meeting with Putin with the goal of securing a ceasefire in Ukraine, those sources said. Trump and European leaders agreed that a ceasefire in Ukraine has to be implemented before peace negotiations can begin, the European officials and two other people briefed on the call said. Some of the European leaders were left with the impression from the call that Trump is not optimistic about the results of his meeting with Putin, they added.

With Putin being Putin, his reply is likely to be his usual "these conditions must be met for us to agree to a ceasefire". Where it goes after that, I can only guess. I hope it's increased sanctions and increased weapons supply.

I think the opposite is more likely. Putin will charm Trump and Ukraine will get less support.

 

[FarFromHome]

Russia tries to make sudden advance in Ukraine before Trump-Putin summit | Reuters https://share.google/rOtXUzOMHDIhKA7M9

Surprising absolutely no one. Putin is bad to his core.

 

[fatness]

Here’s what Putin really wants from Trump – and it’s not peace in Ukraine

It was, after all, the Kremlin who solicited the summit, according to the White House – possibly as a way of heading off a threat of US tariffs and secondary sanctions that Trump said would kick in last week. Keeping Trump talking may be an effective way of pushing back that deadline indefinitely. More broadly, Putin sees a unique opportunity with Trump to fundamentally reset relations with Washington, and separate Russian ties with the US from the fate of Ukraine, a scenario that would also divide the Western allies.

For months, Kremlin officials have been talking up possibilities for economic, technological and space cooperation with the US, as well as lucrative deals on infrastructure and energy in the Arctic and elsewhere. The fact the Kremlin’s top economic envoy, Kirill Dmitriev – a key interlocutor with the Trump administration – is part of the Russian delegation to Alaska suggests that more talk of US-Russian deal-making will be on the agenda. And, if Putin gets his way in this summit, the “Ukraine question” may find itself relegated to just one of many talking points between the powerful leaders of two great powers – and not even the most pressing one.

article archived: https://archive.ph/q3wZT#selection-2909.13-2929.70

 

[fatness]

Ukraine, left out in Trump-Putin summit, fears setbacks on key peace issues

Ukrainian expectations for the summit in Alaska are low, amid fears in Kyiv that the American and Russian leaders will seek to dictate Ukraine's future without its participation. Zelenskyy's talks with European leaders and Trump on Wednesday, though, did appear to find consensus on key Ukrainian demands according to subsequent statements from Zelenskyy and his European counterparts, including that Kyiv will be the one to decide on any territorial concessions and that no such concessions can occur without binding security guarantees

 

[fatness]

Germany to Fund $500M Military Aid Package for Ukraine Under PURL Initiative

As reported by Ukrinform, on July 14, U.S. President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced a new agreement enabling Alliance countries to purchase American weapons. The deal includes provisions for transferring military aid worth billions of U.S. dollars to Ukraine. The PURL initiative—is a newly established mechanism aimed at delivering weapons to Ukraine based on its most pressing defense needs. It allows NATO member states to fund the supply of American arms and technologies through voluntary contributions.

Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans stated on August 4 that the Netherlands would provide Ukraine with a $500 million military aid package, which includes components and missiles for the U.S.-made Patriot air defense system. On August 5, NATO allies Denmark, Norway, and Sweden also announced a joint allocation of $500 million in military aid for Ukraine under the PURL initiative.

 

[fatness]

Pokrovsk Sector Burns Hot: 56 Attacks Repelled, Russians Suffer Heavy Casualties

Ukraine’s forces in the Kramatorsk sector are holding Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region despite Russian claims of its capture, repelling 56 attacks in the Pokrovsk sector over the past 24 hours, according to military officials on Thursday.

The Azov Corps reported 151 Russian troops killed over the last two days in that sector. Senior Sergeant Yuriy Syrotyuk of the 5th Assault Brigade’s Fire Support Company said during a national telethon that Russian troops have been “unsuccessfully trying to capture this small town since 2023. We are now in the Chasiv Yar sector, where Putin personally claimed the town was taken. In reality, the enemy has been unsuccessfully trying to capture this small town since 2023, when fewer than 10,000 people lived here,” he said.

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia is on the Verge of ‘Operational-level Breakthrough’ in Ukraine War​

Just days before the Trump-Putin summit, Russian forces have ramped up their offensive in eastern Ukraine, pushing toward the vital Dobropillia–Kramatorsk highway in Donetsk.

-According to open-source intelligence, Russian troops have captured several nearby settlements in their deepest penetration of Ukrainian lines in a year.

-While Ukraine's elite 1st Azov Corps has been redeployed to halt the advance, analysts suggest the timing is a deliberate Kremlin strategy to seize a stronger negotiating position ahead of the high-stakes talks in Alaska, where a "land swap" deal is expected to be discussed.

Russia Close to Taking Vital Donetsk Highway​

Russian troops have ramped up their eastern Ukraine assault, pushing on towards the Dobropillia–Kramatorsk highway in Donetsk.

The route, until recently a vital artery for both civilians and the military, now sits on the edge of the conflict’s shifting front line.

Key ‘Artery’ Under Threat​

Open-source analysts from Ukraine’s DeepState project told EuroNews that Moscow’s forces have likely taken several nearby settlements.

This move is designed to shore up their position ahead of further planned pushes westward. The project’s mapping now shows contested territory touching the strategic highway.

Dobropillia sits some 94 kilometres northwest of the city of Donetsk, which remains occupied by Russia.

It is also close to Pokrovsk, which has faced near-constant Russian attacks in recent months, with its units obviously attempting to wedge themselves between it and Kostiantynivka. Such efforts, as the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has documented, have accelerated in recent weeks.

‘Breakthrough’ Not Foregone Conclusion​

The ISW cautions against declaring an “operational-level breakthrough” just yet however.

Although the think tank does warn that Moscow appears intent on turning these tactical gains into something far more decisive.

ISW notes that Russia used a similar breach in April 2024 to seize strategically important land northwest of Avdiivka.

Russian Pushes On, But At A Cost​

Ukraine’s elite 1st Azov Corps has redeployed to the Pokrovsk sector to counter the advancing forces. The unit described the situation as “complex and dynamic,” with Russian troops advancing but sustaining losses in both personnel and equipment.

This offensive’s timeline may not be coincidental. ISW suggests the Kremlin could be aiming to project momentum ahead of Friday’s summit in Alaska, where US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet face-to-face.

The talks will mark Putin’s first visit to the U.S. in over a decade, and he will surely be hoping for fresh gains on the battlefield to strengthen his profile.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dismissed any suggestion that Moscow is ready to negotiate in good faith. Citing intelligence and military assessments, he said Russia is redeploying forces in a way that signals preparations for new large-scale attacks.

“Putin is definitely not preparing for a ceasefire,” Zelenskyy publicly warned.

“He wants to frame a meeting with America as a personal victory and continue exactly as before.”

But if Russia does break through towards Dobropillia, Kyiv’s diplomatic and military arsenal will be stretched yet further.

 

[Chadstroma]

Trump demands Putin end war, promises Ukraine security guarantees – Barrow​

At the Alaska summit, US President Donald Trump will demand that Russian President Vladimir Putin implement a ceasefire and has promised security guarantees for Ukraine in coordination with other partners, according to France’s Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noël Barrot.

The French minister noted that US President Donald Trump made it clear to Ukraine and its allies that he will demand an unconditional ceasefire from Vladimir Putin.

The American leader also emphasized that any negotiations on territorial issues will take place only with Volodymyr Zelenskyy present at future meetings.

“Trump also stated that the US will join the security guarantees developed by the coalition of willing countries, led by France, the UK, and Germany,” Barrot added.

Trump–Putin summit

On Friday, August 15, US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska.

The talks are expected to focus on securing a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

However, EU officials are concerned that the American and Russian presidents could decide Ukraine’s future and Europe’s security at the Alaska meeting.

As a precaution, on August 13, European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a video conference with Trump to discuss key positions.

French President Emmanuel Macron said that Trump aims to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine with Putin.

Zelenskyy noted that, ahead of the Alaska summit, Putin is trying to show that sanctions are ineffective and is leveraging battlefield successes for pressure.

During the dialogue, Ukraine and its European allies also agreed with Trump on five joint principles for ending the war.

 

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Putin to offer financial incentives to Trump at Ukraine summit

When Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump meet in Alaska, the Russian president will set out to woo his US counterpart and dangle financial incentives for siding with Moscow over Ukraine. The hastily arranged summit, organised at Putin’s request, will be his first invitation to meet a US president on American soil since he visited George W Bush in 2007. The surprise announcement caught Kyiv and its European allies off guard but for Putin it signals a preliminary diplomatic victory: a face to face with Trump requiring no concessions, and a step towards his goal of deciding Ukraine’s future at the table with Washington.

Key to Putin’s message on Friday will be an appeal to Trump’s business instincts. On Thursday, the Russian president’s adviser Yuri Ushakov said the leaders would discuss the “huge untapped potential” in Russia–US economic relations. “An exchange of views is expected on further developing bilateral cooperation, including in the trade and economic sphere,” Ushakov said. “This cooperation has huge and, unfortunately so far, untapped potential.”

Notably, alongside a cadre of veteran diplomats, Putin is bringing two prominent economic advisers. The inclusion of the finance minister, Anton Siluanov, is particularly notable: he has led Russia’s response to western sanctions, the removal of which the Kremlin has consistently set as a key condition for any peace deal. “Putin sees this as a chance to show Trump that he is more than ready to agree to peace if the conditions are right. He wants to portray [President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy as the one prolonging the war,” said a former high-ranking Kremlin official who, like several other sources, spoke on condition of anonymity. “Putin knows Trump sees the world through a business lens, and will pitch a peace on his terms as the gateway to lucrative opportunities,” the former official added.

 

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The Trump-Putin Alaska Summit is a Dangerous Gamble

Three and a half years into the war, a wide gulf of issues continue to separate Ukraine and Russia.

-The territorial problems are simultaneously the most and least tractable issues. Russia has refused to relent in its demand to retain the territory that it has occupied as well as some terrain that Ukraine continues to defend.

Ukraine has refused to consent to the permanent loss of its eastern oblasts, although Kyiv has moderated somewhat, especially regarding territories lost in 2014. The Ukrainian constitution prohibits the cession of territories under duress, but negotiating teams are evidently building out a legal work-around.

-Russia began the war with a lunge for Kyiv that was expected to seize the city and depose the existing government. Although that lunge failed, Moscow has maintained its demand to impose limitations on Ukrainian domestic politics, especially regarding rights of native Russian speakers and limits on the participation of anti-Russian political entities.

Russia has also sought limitations on Ukraine’s ability to conclude security arrangements with its supporters. Most notably, Moscow has sought guarantees from both Kyiv and Brussels that Ukraine will neither seek nor be allowed to join NATO.

-Russia has demanded limitations on the size and sophistication of Ukraine’s armed forces, officially from a motive of self-defense but also so that Moscow can leverage the possibility of a renewed invasion.

-European and American financial institutions have frozen hundreds billions of dollars of Russian money in private and state-owned accounts, billions that Russia would like to see repatriated. Russia has also demanded the relaxation of the sanctions regime imposed at the beginning of the war.

-Ukraine also has a wide range of demands, from the repatriation of Ukrainian children to the payment of reparations to the prosecution of the Russian political leadership and the perpetrators of heavily documented war crimes. For better or worse, none of these issues will be considered in Alaska.

Given the breadth of the differences between Kyiv and Moscow, many worry that the talks will go nowhere. Novices to diplomacy often assert that there is “no danger to talking,” but in fact, premature and poorly structured negotiations can push peace farther away rather than drawing it closer. Diplomats are not necessarily peacemakers; they are servants of the national interest, and if peace is not in the interest of the nation, then it cannot be imposed.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

UK ready to put ‘boots on ground’ in Ukraine if ceasefire reached, says minister

Defence secretary John Healey has said the government is “ready to put UK boots on the ground” in Ukraine if a ceasefire is secured, as US President Donald Trump prepares to meet Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Anchorage.
Healey, who was on Friday attending an event to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the allied victory over Japan in the second world war, said the so-called “Coalition of the Willing” was ready to go on “day one” of a ceasefire to help secure peace in Ukraine.
“In the circumstances of a ceasefire we’re ready to put UK boots on the ground in Ukraine,” Healey told the BBC.
“They are ready to go, they’re ready to act from day one.”
Healey said that questions over what UK forces in Ukraine would do in the event of a renewed Russian attack were “hypotheticals” but that it was a principle that “any British forces have the right to defend themselves if attacked”.
He emphasised, however, that the main objective of the Coalition of the Willing alliance that the UK and France have tried to assemble was to help provide reassurance to Ukraine while helping rebuild their armed forces to provide future deterrence to Russia.

Ukraine vows to continue drone attacks until there's a peace deal

We met in an undisclosed location in woods outside Kyiv. Brigadier General Yuriy Shchygol is a wanted man.

There is a quiet, understated but steely resolve about this man hunted by Russia. His eyes are piercing and he speaks with precision and determination.
His drone units have done billions of dollars of damage to Russia's economy and their range and potency is increasing exponentially.

"Operations", he said euphemistically, "will develop if Russia refuses a just peace and stays on Ukrainian territory".

"Initially, we had a few drones a month, capable of striking targets 100 to 250 kilometres away. Today, we have drones capable of flying 3,000 to 4,000 kilometres, and that's not the limit, it's constrained only by fuel supply, which can be increased".
His teams had just carried off one of their most complicated and most devastating strikes yet. A massive fire was raging in an oil refinery in Volgograd, or Stalingrad as it was once called.

"If the refinery is completely destroyed, it will be one of the largest operations conducted," Brigadier General Shchygol said. "There have been other major targets too, in Saratov and Akhtubinsk. Those refineries are now either non-operational or functioning at only 5% of capacity."

General Yuriy says Ukraine picks targets that hurt Russia's war effort, and it is constantly honing its capability.

"Each operation", he says, "uses multiple types of drones simultaneously, some fly higher, others lower. That is our technical edge."

How satisfying, I asked, was it to watch so much enemy infrastructure go up in smoke? He answered with detached professionalism.

"It does not bring me pleasure, war can never be a source of enjoyment. Each of us has tasks we could fulfil in peacetime. But this is war; it doesn't bring satisfaction. However, it benefits the state and harms our enemy."

Whatever happens in Alaska, General Yuriy and his teams will continue pioneering drone warfare, hitting Vladimir Putin's economy where it hurts most.

Ukraine’s Patriots Now Struggling To Intercept Enhanced Russian Ballistic Missiles

However, “the UAF [Ukrainian Air Force] struggled to consistently use Patriot air defense systems to protect against Russian ballistic missiles due to recent Russian tactical improvements, including enhancements that enable their missiles to change trajectory and perform maneuvers rather than flying in a traditional ballistic trajectory,” according to a Special Inspector General report released this week.

This particular passage is cited to “DIA, response to DoD OIG request for information.” The entire report, which was jointly put together by the Offices of the Inspector General at the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Department of State, and U.S. Agency for International Development, discusses U.S. government activities related to Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe between April 1 and June 30.

“For example, [a] June 28 attack included seven ballistic missiles, of which the UAF shot down only one,” the report adds. “A massed attack on July 9 – the largest air attack since the start of the war – included 13 missiles, of which the UAF shot down or suppressed 7.”

The Special Inspector General report does not offer any further details about what specific types of ballistic missiles are at the source of the issue, nor about the “enhancements” that have been made to them. Whether any specific Patriot interceptors have struggled more than others is also unknown.

However, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat did mention Russia’s domestically developed Iskander-M and North Korean-supplied KN-23s in passing when talking publicly about this issue back in May. The Iskander-M and KN-23 are both short-range ballistic missiles. These are also understood to be, by far, the ballistic missiles that Russia most commonly employs in strikes on Ukraine.

July saw highest civilian casualties in Ukraine since 2022, UN says ahead of Trump-Putin summit

At least 1,674 civilian casualties were recorded in Ukraine in July, setting a new record since the first year of Russia's full-scale invasion, U.N. human rights monitors said on Aug. 13.

"For the second month in a row, the number of civilian casualties in Ukraine hits a new three-year high," said Danielle Bell, head of the U.N. human rights monitoring mission in Ukraine.

"Only the first three months after the Russian Federation launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine saw more killed and injured than in this past month."

Russia's use of long-range weapons like missiles and loitering munitions accounted for almost 40% of the casualties, the U.N. said in its report. Short-range drones were the second most common cause of civilian losses, amounting to 24%.

The surge in casualty figures took place mainly in Ukrainian front-line areas, a trend the monitors connected to Russia's intensified offensive operations.

Japan says Russian military obtained banned machine tools via Chinese firms

Japan's Economy Ministry has uncovered a sanctions-evasion scheme in which high-precision manufacturing equipment was sold to Russia via Chinese companies, Ukrainian sanctions coordinator Vladyslav Vlasiuk said on Aug. 14.

Russian defense manufacturers rely heavily on foreign components from U.S., European, and Asian producers, which they acquire through a network of Chinese and Hong Kong suppliers to circumvent Western restrictions.

In July, President Volodymyr Zelensky sanctioned five Chinese firms for supplying components used in Russian Shahed-type drones that have been used to attack Ukraine.

Japanese authorities launched an investigation earlier this year after Ukraine warned that Russian forces were using Japanese-made machine tools, the Economy Ministry said.

The probe found that over 300 precision machine tools produced by Japan’s Tsugami Corp. had gone missing after being sold to seven Chinese companies. The equipment is critical for manufacturing weapons components.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1956306286519230683

Yesterday, Ukrainian SOF struck the Russian seaport of Olya on the Caspian Sea, heavily damaging and partially sinking the Port Olya-4, a vessel responsible for transporting key munitions and Shahed drone parts from Iran.

https://x.com/bradyafr/status/1956076148930306305

Russia is launching so many one-way attack drones at Ukraine that they have built dedicated launch sites for them.

Here's a closer look at one located at Primorsko-Akhtarsk air base in southwestern Russia.

Imagery from @Maxar via @SkyfiApp

 

[Chadstroma]

How Ukraine's Soldiers Are Trained by UK Soldiers Who Haven't Seen Real War - Business Insider https://share.google/IvgJH4nu8Ek4jJ4d9

 

[Chadstroma]

Russian breakthrough blocked: Ukraine's Forces begin clearing operations in Dobropillia area​

Over the past three days, in the defense sector in the Pokrovsk direction, the Azov 1st Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine, together with adjacent and subordinate units, has stopped the enemy’s advance. As a result of search-and-strike operations, the following settlements have been cleared: Hruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodiane, Petrivka, Vesele, and Zolotyi Kolodiaz, the report states.

Due to active combat operations, Russian forces have suffered heavy losses in personnel and equipment:

"Stabilization operations on the Dobropillia direction continue. Success has been achieved thanks to coordinated and well-organized actions. The corps command thanks all units actively participating in this direction," the statement adds.

Situation near Dobropillia

Recently, information appeared online suggesting that Russian forces had made significant advances in the Dobropillia area, as indicated by an interactive map from DeepStateMap.

Following this, Viktor Trehubov, a representative of the Dnipro operational-strategic group, clarified that only small enemy groups of a few individuals had advanced. By August 14, the General Staff reported that the situation had stabilized.

On August 15, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote that Russian attempts to "show force" near Dobropillia resulted in heavy losses for the Russian troops. He also announced the strengthening of defenses in the Dobropillia area to prevent similar situations in the future.

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia cuts troop payments, ranks regions by life value – Ukraine Intel​

Against the backdrop of a record budget deficit, the Russian authorities are cutting one-time bonuses for army contracts in a number of regions, while increasing them in others, according to the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR).

Bonuses for contracts being reduced, but not everywhere
Several regions of Russia have sharply reduced one-time payments for those who sign contracts with the army.

・In Bashkiria, the bonus fell from 1.6 million to 1 million rubles.

・In the Yamalo-Nenets District, it fell from 3.1 million to 1.9 million.

・In the Belgorod Region, it fell from 3 million to 800,000.

・In the Nizhny Novgorod Region, it fell from 3 million to 1.5 million.

Tatarstan and Ryazan increase payments

At the same time, the amounts are increasing in a number of regions. In Tatarstan, the bonus has been raised to 3.1 million rubles, in the Ryazan region, they promise a million more than before, and in Kabardino-Balkaria, the payment has been increased from 1.5 to 1.8 million.

Caste system in Russia

HUR notes that a system is being formed in Russia in which the lives of soldiers from different regions are valued differently.

At the same time, the main reasons for the redistribution of funds are cited as the budget deficit and the priority financing of certain territories.

Record deficit and military spending in Russia

Under the pressure of military spending and sanctions, Russia's economy is heading for a sharp decline. The main reasons are a decline in oil and gas revenues, a shortfall in tax revenues, and a rapid increase in the budget deficit. Banks are warning of an impending financial crisis.

At the same time, the lives of Russians are rapidly deteriorating. In the second quarter of 2025, overdue mortgage payments in Russia increased by 97% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching 95 billion rubles ($1.19 billion). Car loan debt rose by 85% to 32 billion rubles ($400 million).

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukrainian strikes cut Russian profits by tens of billions - General Staff reveals details​

Strikes by Ukrainian Defense Forces on Russian enterprises and infrastructure have reduced the enemy’s revenues by $74 billion, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports.

According to an infographic from the General Staff, almost 80% of the air targets hit in Russia were related to oil and gas infrastructure. In particular, 42% were oil refineries and another 37% were oil storage facilities. The rest were logistics objects involved in transporting and exporting petroleum products, such as pumping stations and oil terminals.

The General Staff also noted that, according to Ukrainian estimates, these strikes have already caused a loss of approximately 4% of Russia’s GDP.

Strike range

Most strikes, according to the official infographic, targeted objects at distances of 500–1,000 km (39%). A roughly equal share of strikes hit targets within 500 km. Around 10% of attacks were carried out at depths of over 1,000 km. The General Staff did not specify which types of weapons were used.

Economic impact estimate

The estimated value of losses is about $74.11 billion, roughly equivalent to 4% of Russia’s GDP. According to the World Bank, Russia’s total gross domestic product in 2024 was around $2.2 trillion, with growth projected at 1.6% in 2025.

Strikes on Russia

The Armed Forces of Ukraine regularly strike strategic enterprises in Russia that support the enemy’s defense industry. For example, on the night of August 15, the Defense Forces struck the Syzran oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region with drones.

Earlier, the Ukrainian troops struck the largest oil refinery in Volgograd, causing large fires, with details of the damage still being clarified.

Ukrainian kamikaze drones also attacked a pumping station on the Transneft Druzhba pipeline in Unecha, Bryansk region.

 

[Chadstroma]

Polish president shows off military hardware, sees Russia 'floundering' in Ukraine​

WARSAW (Reuters) -Russian forces have floundered in Ukraine and history shows Russia's army can be beaten in combat, Poland's president told a military parade on Friday marking the 105th anniversary of a victory over the Red Army by Polish defenders.

Polish President Karol Nawrocki, an ally of Donald Trump's MAGA movement, spoke as the eyes of the world were focused on Alaska, where the U.S. president will meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin for talks on the war in Ukraine.

The parade marked the 105th anniversary of the Battle of Warsaw during which Poland defeated the invading Red Army and prevented Soviet forces pushing towards western Europe.

"Russia is not invincible," Nawrocki said in a speech before the parade.

"It lost to Japan at the beginning of the 20th century, it was defeated by the Poles in 1920, and today, for over three years... it has been floundering after its attack on Ukraine thanks to the support of allies and the solidarity of free nations, including, and at times especially, Poland."

Already tense relations between Warsaw and Moscow have hit new lows since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. NATO member Poland says its own role as a hub for aid for Kyiv has made it a target of Russian sabotage, cyberattacks and disinformation.

Nawrocki joined a Ukraine teleconference with Europe an leaders and Trump on Wednesday that discussed the U.S. president's forthcoming summit with Putin.

Warsaw, NATO's leading spender on defence as a percentage of GDP, has ramped up its military spending since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. It plans to spend 5% of GDP on defence in 2026 to repel what it says is a renewed threat from the east.

Around 50 military aircraft, including F-16 fighter jets, flew overhead as 4,000 Polish soldiers accompanied by around 200 troops from NATO allies marched alongside the Vistula river beside Leopard, K2 and Abrams tanks, Borsuk and Rosomak armoured vehicles as well as Patriot and HIMARS artillery systems.

A naval parade featuring around 20 vessels also took place in the Baltic sea.

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia's long-range bombers kept up attack tempo, showing fleet's 'resilience' despite Ukraine's Spiderweb attack: UK MOD​

• Russia's bombers are still attacking Ukraine steadily despite Operation Spiderweb, the UK MOD said.
• It observed over 70 cruise missiles fired in July, saying it shows the "resilience" of Russia's fleet.
• Still, Ukrainian media previously reported that Russia is having to cram missiles on its bombers.

Russia's long-range bombers are still assailing Ukraine at a steady pace despite June's daring drone attack against the fleet, the UK's defense ministry said in a recent assessment.

In an intelligence update on Wednesday, the British ministry wrote that it had observed seven long-range attack packages launched against Ukraine in July, involving at least 70 "premier munitions" — powerful cruise missiles.

"Russian Long Range Aviation bombers have maintained their offensive tempo, continuing to demonstrate the resilience and retained capability of the fleet following Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb on June 1, 2025," the ministry wrote.

The assessment comes six weeks after Ukraine launched a surprise drone attack on four airbases deep inside Russia that housed the Kremlin's strategic bombers and early warning aircraft.

Using first-person-view drones transported via truck, Ukraine damaged what it said was at least a third of Russia's bomber fleet.

Dubbed Operation Spiderweb, the attack was hailed as one of the starkest examples of how asymmetric warfare can endanger high-level military assets like the $150 million Tu-95MS bomber. Ukrainian officials have said that the attack inflicted $7 billion worth of damage.

Before the attack, Russia was believed to field roughly 67 strategic bombers in its active inventory, and videos released by Ukraine show that at least nine of them were heavily damaged in Operation Spiderweb. Ukraine reported that the attack damaged or destroyed at least 41 total aircraft, but independent analysts have said it's difficult to affirm that claim.

Crucially, these aircraft can't be easily replaced. Russia is believed to have ceased production of the Tu-95 and Tu-22M, and while it's still making the newer Tu-160, only two have been reported manufactured in the last three years. Notably, long-range bombers are also one of the three key pillars of Russia's nuclear triad.

Still, Russia has continued to bombard Ukraine after the June attack with a combination of one-way attack drones and missiles.

Russia typically relies on its strategic bombers to fire cruise missiles, most commonly munitions from the Kh air-to-surface missile family.

After Operation Spiderweb, one of Russia's biggest strategic bomber attacks unfolded on June 6, when Ukraine reported that Moscow launched at least 36 Kh-101 cruise missiles in one night.

Ukrainian media, however, at the time cited unnamed sources saying that Russian forces had to compensate for a reduced fleet during the attack by loading each bomber to full capacity.

Either way, Russia has continued using its bomber fleet in high-profile attacks. On July 12, Ukraine's air force reported another wave of 26 Kh-101 cruise missiles fired into Ukrainian airspace.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that in July alone, Russia had fired over 3,800 Shahed explosive drones and 260 missiles. However, he did not specify which of the latter were launched by strategic bombers.

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia improved its missiles. Now, Ukraine's Patriots are struggling to consistently shoot them down, defense intel says.​

• Russia has upgraded its ballistic missiles with more maneuverability, the US said this week.
• The improvements have made the missiles more challenging for Ukraine's inventory of Patriot systems.
• The American-made Patriot has long been Ukraine's best defense against Russian ballistic missiles.

Russia has been upgrading its ballistic missiles, giving them more maneuverability and creating new challenges for Ukraine's vaunted American-made Patriot air defense systems, according to a US defense intelligence assessment.

A special report published this week by the Department of Defense Office of Inspector General said that the Ukrainian Air Force has struggled to consistently use its Patriot systems to intercept Russian ballistic missiles due to recent "tactical improvements" that Moscow made to the weapons.

These improvements to the weapons include "enhancements that enable their missiles to change trajectory and perform maneuvers rather than flying in a traditional ballistic trajectory," said the report, which covers US assistance to Ukraine during the spring and early summer and was first reported by The War Zone.

The special report, which relied on information provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency, noted two Russian attacks: one on June 28, during which Russia launched seven ballistic missiles and Ukraine shot down one; and another on July 9, when Kyiv intercepted seven of 13 missiles.

Ukraine has previously acknowledged improvements that Russia has made to increase the maneuverability of its ballistic missiles, but the report marks a concerning assessment for the Patriot air defenses that the US and many of its allies and partners also rely on for missile defense.

The US military is closely watching how Ukraine is using its coveted Patriots to defend against Russian missiles. The developments outlined in the new report also have implications beyond this war as America considers air defense demands in potential future fights.

The American-made MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missile system is the top tier of Ukraine's air defense network and is considered its best defense against Russian ballistic missiles, which include the domestically produced 9K720 Iskander, the air-launched Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, and North Korea's KN-23, among other weapons, but Ukraine has been seeing more of these weapons break through its integrated air defense network.

Ukraine is thought to have at least six operational Patriot batteries, which were transferred to Kyiv by a small number of NATO countries, including the US. Washington and its allies have also sent interceptor missiles, though there are regular concerns that stockpiles are quickly being depleted.

Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have routinely pressed NATO for more Patriot batteries and additional ammunition. Amid worsening Russian missile attacks, the White House said last month that it would transfer more systems to Ukraine through its European partners — a sidestep for President Donald Trump, who has taken a less enthusiastic approach to arming Kyiv than the previous administration.

Earlier this month, Germany announced that it would send two more Patriot systems to Ukraine imminently and then ship more in the coming months. The US, meanwhile, agreed to backfill Berlin's arsenal with new batteries amid broader efforts by NATO to ramp up the delivery of American-made weaponry to Kyiv as it faces Russian advances in key sectors of the battlefield.

 

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Trump Says There Is ‘No Deal’ on Ukraine After Summit With Putin

President Trump and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia concluded their summit in Alaska on Friday without declaring agreement on any issue, much less the one Mr. Trump said was at the top of his agenda, ending the war in Ukraine. At a joint appearance after their nearly three-hour meeting at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Mr. Trump gave vague but positive assessment that progress had been made, saying, “Many points were agreed to, and there are just a very few that are left.” But he did not describe those points, or even specify that they had to do with Ukraine. “We’ve made some headway,” he added. “So there’s no deal until there’s a deal.”

Moments earlier, Mr. Putin had signaled no change in his hard-line position on Ukraine, claiming that it “has to do with fundamental threats to our security.” “We’re convinced that in order to make the settlement lasting and long-term, we need to eliminate all of the primary causes of the conflict,” he said, repeating the phrasing he and other Russian officials have used to refer to a list of Kremlin positions that Ukraine — and, for the most part, the West — have called unacceptable.

 

[fatness]

Putin flatters Trump by echoing his claims about the war in Ukraine.

But, after the meeting, Mr. Putin made a point of echoing Mr. Trump’s claim that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine in 2022 if he had still been president, a striking bit of flattery as the two men put on a show of warmth and friendship even as they walked away without a deal. “Today we hear President Trump say, ‘If I were president, there would be no war,’” Mr. Putin said. “I think that would actually happen. I confirm this. I think that overall, me and President Trump have built a very good businesslike and trustworthy contact,” he added, “and have every reason to believe that moving down this path, we can come — and the sooner the better — to the end of the conflict in Ukraine.”

Obvious negotiating ploys are obvious.

Trump is saying that during the summit, Putin conveyed his support for his conspiracy theories around the 2020 election being rigged. “He said ‘your election was rigged because you have mail-in voting,’” Trump said.