Official Scorers' Effect on IDP (1 Viewer)

[JaxBill]

A lot of IDP scoring is dependent on the awarding of tackles/assists by the scorer. Much like hitters'/pitchers' parks in baseball, are there any stadiums where the scorer is more liberal with the tackles/ assists?

I've noticed the last couple of years, for instance that Zach Thomas seems to get awarded fewer solo tackles but more assists at home.

Last year, Jeremiah Trotter had 60 tackles in 9 road games vs. 40 tackles in 9 home games.

I also quickly looked at a couple of Patriots like Bruschi and Vrabel and they score better at home than on the road.

Obviously, it can be a small difference that it shouldn't matter at draft time but it might be something to keep in mind when toying with starting lineups between two equal players. Another contributing factor for the first two examples could possibly be an offense that doesn't play well on the road, thus the defense is on the field more.

Anybody else notice this or am I just outta my mind?

 

[Jene Bramel]

You aren't out of your mind at all.

Every home stadium's stat crew is different. The percentage of solo and assisted tackles and passes defended vary widely from venue to venue and can be exploited if you know where to look.

Aaron Rudnicki is formulating a database and may be planning a yearly article on this topic (particularly assists and PD) for subscribers. And we spent a good deal of time discussing this, and how to exploit it, during the IDP 301 show on the Audible, which was posted last night.

 

[JaxBill]

OK, thanks. I'll hang up and take a listen.

I just listened to 101 yesterday.

 

[tex]

This may have been covered before but I know that IDP stats are dependent on the stats men. At least that's what it seems like. How are we to know which teams view stats a certain way and others view them another way? Also I have always wondered how a pass defensed is scored? Does the defender have to knock the ball down or does he just have to cover the receiver who doesn't catch the ball? Any insight is appreciated.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I'm going to merge this with the other thread that discussed differences in official/unofficial stats yesterday.

The short answer is...there is clearly no consensus about what a solo/assisted tackle or pass defended is among the statkeepers. Some list two players and give both assisted tackles in the boxscore, some give a solo and an assist. Some give only the first player to hit the ballcarrier credit, others tend to give two players credit whenever possible. Some appear to give credit for a PD for a closely covered incomplete pass, some only when the ball is knocked free.

 

[obxlegends]

I'm going to merge this with the other thread that discussed differences in official/unofficial stats yesterday.The short answer is...there is clearly no consensus about what a solo/assisted tackle or pass defended is among the statkeepers. Some list two players and give both assisted tackles in the boxscore, some give a solo and an assist. Some give only the first player to hit the ballcarrier credit, others tend to give two players credit whenever possible. Some appear to give credit for a PD for a closely covered incomplete pass, some only when the ball is knocked free.

I have not done any scientific research on the subject, but over the years I've always found that players on the Dolphins and Jets seem to get more assists in my mind. In other teams box scores you will see some solo tackles, but more often than not in games involving these 2 teams then assists are usually given. In retrospect being a Bronco or Seahawk seems to hurt. Like I said before, nothing scientific, just what I've noticed.

 

[Biabreakable]

Adding up and comparing total team solo tackles and assisted tackles over a few years might show some trends.

Also some crews award passes defensed more liberaly than others and that could be useful information.

Breaking these totals up by position might show more.

I do think there is somthing to this. I am uncertain how big of a difference it actualy is or not.

 

[Rozelle]

I really don’t know why the NFL hasn’t made tackles/assist an official stat.

Knowing who the individual/s are who do the scoring would be cool.

More so … for starting lineups and bye week FA’s then on who you draft. I’m guessing there is one for each stadium. Is it a local sportswriter, someone from Elias, team personnel, or what?

Knowing who these individuals are and their style/track record would be a nice little bit of info. This is right up their alley for our IDP friends at FBG’s, in terms of leaving no stone unturned to gain an edge.

Some years back I did a breakdown of this with every team. Man … was it time consuming, enough so that I would never ever think of doing it again. After I finished, actually before I finished, I thought … what if the person who did the scoring last year is different than the person doing it this year? This data would be a waste!

 

[RommelDAK]

I don't have the raw data any more, but I made this for myself from what was posted here last year:

Assisted Tackles/Solo Tackles By Stadium in Standard Deviations Above the Mean (2005 data)

PIT 2.69

GB 1.40

MIA 1.29

TEN 1.19

SD 1.17

NE 1.05

NYG 0.92

IND 0.53

CIN 0.53

BUF 0.50

SEA 0.48

TB 0.24

NO 0.12

SF 0.02

DEN -0.01

CLE -0.11

NYJ -0.15

DAL -0.18

HOU -0.18

DET -0.20

CAR -0.27

BAL -0.38

WAS -0.43

PHI -0.60

MIN -0.80

OAK -0.91

CHI -0.93

ARI -0.93

KC -1.08

JAX -1.55

STL -1.74

ATL -2.00

As you can see, I broke them into groups for myself and used this as one of many inputs into deciding which defensive players to use (particularly linebackers). For example, I had Witherspoon and because of the above avoided using him at home. In his eight home games last year he had a grand total of 1 assist. In the eight road games, he had 13! Meanwhile, his solos were almost identical (48 on the road and 50 at home). All other things being equal, this is a very useful piece of info.I am dying to see updated numbers from last year!

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

this is still on my to-do list...just haven't had the time. hope to run the numbers from last season and see how they compare with 2005.

 

[RommelDAK]

I couldn’t help myself–I had to give this a shot myself!

Please bear in mind the following caveats:

1. These are linebacker numbers only! For me, that’s the position where it’s most relevant, though I would assume it would not vary for dbs or dls.

2. The data are for five years from (2002 through 2006).

3. They are based on team totals and do not distinguish between home and away. Obviously, this is the biggest weakness of this analysis, but a) I was hoping that the five-year window would cause the home-field trends to jump out (each team would have 80 games represented, with 40 at home and 40 at various other stadiums) and b) this only took me about 15 minutes, while splitting home and away would take hours (at least the way I have the data set up).

Given those limitations, I take the fact that they come out remarkably similar to the trends posted here last year as encouraging:

Assisted Tackles/Solo Tackles By Team (NOT stadium) Linebackers in Standard Deviations Above the Mean (2002-2006 data)

Miami 2.75

Buffalo 2.30

New England 1.60

Cincinnati 1.29

New York (A) 0.98

Cleveland 0.73

Detroit 0.69

Pittsburgh 0.47

Green Bay 0.43

Tampa Bay 0.41

New Orleans 0.26

Tennessee 0.21

Baltimore 0.21

Houston 0.19

Indianapolis 0.08

New York (N) -0.05

Minnesota -0.21

San Diego -0.41

San Francisco -0.46

Dallas -0.49

Carolina -0.51

Oakland -0.57

Washington -0.66

Denver -0.68

Jacksonville -0.70

Chicago -0.72

Seattle -0.82

Arizona -0.87

Atlanta -1.14

Philadelphia -1.24

Kansas City -1.52

Saint Louis -1.55

I look forward to seeing Aaron's numbers, but in the meantime I am in the middle of my draft and thinking of taking a linebacker in the next round!

 

[flooredyas]

I couldn’t help myself–I had to give this a shot myself!

Please bear in mind the following caveats:

1. These are linebacker numbers only! For me, that’s the position where it’s most relevant, though I would assume it would not vary for dbs or dls.

2. The data are for five years from (2002 through 2006).

3. They are based on team totals and do not distinguish between home and away. Obviously, this is the biggest weakness of this analysis, but a) I was hoping that the five-year window would cause the home-field trends to jump out (each team would have 80 games represented, with 40 at home and 40 at various other stadiums) and b) this only took me about 15 minutes, while splitting home and away would take hours (at least the way I have the data set up).

Given those limitations, I take the fact that they come out remarkably similar to the trends posted here last year as encouraging:

Assisted Tackles/Solo Tackles By Team (NOT stadium) Linebackers in Standard Deviations Above the Mean (2002-2006 data)

Miami 2.75

Buffalo 2.30

New England 1.60

Cincinnati 1.29

New York (A) 0.98

Cleveland 0.73

Detroit 0.69

Pittsburgh 0.47

Green Bay 0.43

Tampa Bay 0.41

New Orleans 0.26

Tennessee 0.21

Baltimore 0.21

Houston 0.19

Indianapolis 0.08

New York (N) -0.05

Minnesota -0.21

San Diego -0.41

San Francisco -0.46

Dallas -0.49

Carolina -0.51

Oakland -0.57

Washington -0.66

Denver -0.68

Jacksonville -0.70

Chicago -0.72

Seattle -0.82

Arizona -0.87

Atlanta -1.14

Philadelphia -1.24

Kansas City -1.52

Saint Louis -1.55

I look forward to seeing Aaron's numbers, but in the meantime I am in the middle of my draft and thinking of taking a linebacker in the next round!

Why is it that the AFC holds a clear advantage in this study?Suggest you take Zack with your pick.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Saint Louis -1.55

You can plainly see that the StL scorekeeper does not give out many assists in '06.As such, it was no surprise to me when you had them listed last.

 

[Rozelle]

 

[massraider]

Well, this is real interesting.

 

[Musesboy]

This would make for a great article.

I would like to see the effect on passes defended as well.

Do the Eagles' statisticians still award them whenever they feel like it for example?

 

[RommelDAK]

Museboy, I gave a shot at something to analyze PDs.

Again, the caveats:

1. These are these are defensive back numbers only! The way FootballSmarts (the software I use) organizes data, it was easier to pick out one position. I figured dbs were the most relevant, and I doubt that it would vary for lbs and dls.

2. The data are for five years from (2002 through 2006).

3. Like my assisted tackle numbers, they are based on team totals and do not distinguish between home and away (for the same reasons).

4. Bear in mind that both these numbers and the assisted tackle data are ratios. For assisted tackles, it was assists/solos. For this table, it’s passes defensed/incompletions (where the latter is obviously the other team’s incompletions). My thinking was that just taking the raw number “passes defensed” wasn’t a good idea if a particular team just gets passed on more (because they tend to play with a lead or have a poor pass defense). What I wanted to get at was this: when an official scorer sees an incompletion, how often does he credit a defensive player with it?

Passes Defensed/Incompletions By Team (NOT stadium) Defensive Backss in Standard Deviations Above the Mean (2002-2006 data)

Philadelphia 3.68

Houston 1.32

San Francisco 1.05

Baltimore 1.03

Cincinnati 0.95

Arizona 0.65

Tampa Bay 0.60

Denver 0.45

Pittsburgh 0.45

Detroit 0.33

Green Bay 0.22

New York (A) 0.20

New York (N) 0.11

Tennessee 0.05

Oakland 0.04

New Orleans 0.04

Indianapolis -0.04

Dallas -0.05

Carolina -0.08

Seattle -0.12

Cleveland -0.36

Washington -0.45

Jacksonville -0.51

Saint Louis -0.55

San Diego -0.73

Atlanta -0.80

Kansas City -0.85

Miami -0.96

Buffalo -0.99

Minnesota -1.41

New England -1.45

Chicago -1.84

Again, I don’t know how well this does since it’s by team and not stadium, but, boy, oh, boy, Museboy, does it ever show the Eagle’s scorers tendencies!!!!

 

[RommelDAK]

Why is it that the AFC holds a clear advantage in this study?Suggest you take Zack with your pick.

It also makes Posluszny even more attractive! He'll play 11 of 16 games in a stadium that awards assists in the top five.Dang, that tempts me to take him early, but I don't know if the other members of my league have even heard of him.

 

[bcr8f]

Why is it that the AFC holds a clear advantage in this study?Suggest you take Zack with your pick.

It also makes Posluszny even more attractive! He'll play 11 of 16 games in a stadium that awards assists in the top five.Dang, that tempts me to take him early, but I don't know if the other members of my league have even heard of him.

I may keep Ellison and Crowell for the same reason.Yesterday I watched Sean Jones get one unassisted(I thought) tackle. Player bounced off a defender and Jones tackled him at his ankles and wasn't give any points. After bouncing off the one defender he wasn't going down. It should have been unassisted but wasn't even an assist. These stats need to be fixed.

 

[Lash]

just drafted Poz for the "assist" over Beason and wouldve picked him over PWill for this reason

 

[Lash]

 

[Rushmore]

The two that come to mind first is St. Louis and Denver, who have been notorious for being stingy on tackle numbers. It's a shame, because DJ Williams is primed for big things this year imo. I still think he's underrated despite that. Some guys are just talented enough to offset it, such as Witherspoon last season. If you have reservations for their home scoring, then use that as a possible deciding factor in your lineup decisions.

 

[RommelDAK]

just drafted Poz for the "assist" over Beason and wouldve picked him over PWill for this reason

I drafted Poz waaay too early, but all the top guys were off the board. I think he was the next best guy, but I suspect that I could have waited a few more rounds.BUT I WANTED HIM!Fantasy football is supposed to be fun, too, right?

 

[kurtrudder]

this is a great thread and hope to see an article on this topic in the subscriber section sometime.

Something that stands out for me here is the effect this will have on London Fletcher Baker moving to Washington.....it's unlikely he will end up with close to 45 assists looking at the differences between the Buffalo and Washington stats men.