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***Official Soccer Discussion Thread*** (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Ramsay Hunt Experience
- Start date
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
When has Lukaku not missed chances? He's never been an elite finisher. The rest of his game has always compensated so he gets lots of chances. He'll score around 25 league goals again.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
20K more than Christian Ericksen! I realize that I marvel about this every 2 months or so, but I continue to be mystified by this.
He has no "rest of his game"Zlatan says to Lukaku: "No starts for you! One year!"
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
Of course he does. He wins headers. He plays well with his back to goal. He's strong as an ox. And his attacking movement and positioning is very good. Mediocre finishers don't score 20 league goals every year without doing other stuff well. It's not as if Everton was chock full of elite chance creators. Ross Barkley was about as good as they got.
Zlatan says to Lukaku: "No starts for you! One year!"
So, he is a wealthier Giroud?
Lukaku: 15, 10, 18, 25, 7 - not exactly scoring 20 league goals every year....
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
I like Giroud fine, but Lukaku isn't just wealthier. He's objectively better. Giroud came to Arsenal the same season as Lukaku's loan to West Brom. So we have a nice even comparison since. Giroud has scored a very respectable 70 league goals in 170 league appearances. Lukaku has scored 68 league goals in 131 league appearances in the same time frame. Two Premiere League strikers have been better over that period. Kane and Aguero. Nobody else.
I mean, Lukaku has 7 goals in 11 appearances this year. He's right on pace for 20-25 goals. We all agree that Kane has been on fire and he has one more goal in one less appearance.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Interesting viewpoints all around. Is the dissatisfaction on TSO's end or the board's? Will spit hit the fan if City runs them out of the stadium in the derbies?
Right now it just feels like nobody is keeping City off the board in a match. And we might not be at Peak DeBruyne and Peak Sane yet.
Right now it just feels like nobody is keeping City off the board in a match. And we might not be at Peak DeBruyne and Peak Sane yet.
Giroud:
Since 12/13: 10,081 minutes played, 70 goals. 1 goal every 144 minutes - plus one Scorpion Goal
Lukaku:
Since 12/13: 14,881 minutes played, 92 goals, 1 goal every 161.8 minutes
Objectively speaking, Giroud has been the better striker over the same period...Lukaku is over-rated.
I think its both. I think the board are hearing the fans frustration at the playing style, and pushing back on Mourinho. Mourinho is pushing back on the board saying he wants to spend like a drunken sailor. And, I think Mourinho is a bit miffed that Pep has got the jump on him this season. Season 2 is supposed to be Mou's year.
To be fair to Mourinho - I think he is doing pretty well with what he has (we are talking about a team that are second in the league). And, despite costing too much, missing Pogba is a big deal. How did City fare last year without De Bruyne?
prefontaine
Footballguy
Sane is young and I certainly wouldn't say he can't get better - especially from a consistency standpoint, but De Bruyne is right in his prime and seems to completely understand his role in Pep's system. If he can be better, the rest of the EPL might as well just shut shop for a few years.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
My favorite stat from last year (no idea if true) was that if you take away all of Lukaku's 20+ league goals, Everton still finish in the same spot in the table (7th). I know its probably BS, but he seems to be the guy who scores a hat trick in a 4-0 win, then disappears in the big games. The same seems to be true for Belgium - he puts up big numbers overall, but never seems to play big when all the world is watching. I don't hide my bias with Lukaku though. Didn't like the way he left Chelsea and was even more disgusted with the way he left Everton. No integrity, no fight, excuse-maker imo.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
I went back and actually checked some conversion percentages. Seems that Lukaku actually isn't a bad finisher at all. He was at 21% in 2015/16 and 29% in 2016/17. Kane was 20% and 33% respectively. Giroud's super sub role had him at 35% last year. Didn't find his rate the year before. FWIW, Zlatan's conversion rate last year was 14.7%.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
I don't think anyone can claim Jose parked the bus at Chelsea on Sunday. I was expecting a boring game but it was end to end. They had their chances, but gave Chelsea more. In the end, Chelsea were better and deserved all three, but Jose probably could have taken a point home if he'd played his normal away-game-against-top-6 tactics.
prefontaine
Footballguy
I was thinking this some Sunday and the media criticism he got may be affecting him. Or the fact that Citeh look to be separating. Or maybe just to get one over on Conte. But he seems to be reacting to external things and it makes me believe some of the PSG rumors since he doesn't seem to be comfortable at United.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
Looks like Zlatan was actually at 20% in the league. He was profligate in other comps.
yeah, Kane has a reputation for being a strong finisher, and he is not bad, but he takes a lot of shots.
Looking at the last 4 years:
Lukaku: 10,311 minutes, 371 shots, 60 goals = 1 shot every 28 minutes, 16.1% conversion (1 goal every 172 minutes)
Kane: 9,359 minutes, 440 shots, 83 goals = 1 shot every 21 minutes, 18.9% conversion (1 goal every 112 minutes)
Kafka
Footballguy
Aguero same time period (14/15 - 17/18)
Aguero: 7,927 minutes, 435 shots, 78 goals = 1 shot every 18 minutes, 17.9% conversion* (1 goal every 102 minutes)
*this year he has 8 goals on 29 shots - 27.6% conversion rate
Kafka
Footballguy
Kafka
Footballguy
B Maverick
Footballguy
Bailley is their best defender but Jones has been good. Smalling and Lindlof have been bad.
Lingard is english, home grown and useful in cup games. He should not start any epl games (except maybe vs the bottom of the table, like over the christmas schedule) or CL games (unless United has clinched rd of 16 and there is 1 group game left). The salary isn't much relatively speaking. He isn't a sell for me like a certain other... but he isn't a starter. Purely squad guy.
B Maverick
Footballguy
Lukaku has struggled of late. Missing when you expect a goal. However his movement and speed does provide value when he isnt scoring. Defenders need to pay attention to him so when he does open space for others it is very beneficial. Providing someone gets there and scores. BUT if his drought continues then there may be some issue. Losing Pogba hurts him to.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
I was taking a look at some advanced team statistics earlier today. It really seems that United and Chelsea are creating comparatively fewer chances compared to the rest of the big clubs. And that's by just about any proxy method you want to look at. "Chances created", "goals per game in the penalty area", and even raw shots (both total and in the penalty area). Chelsea is overcoming that somewhat by having a pretty high conversion rate (just over 20%).
Finding chance conceded numbers is more difficult, but we can look at the goals given up inside the 18 as a proxy. There, as your eyes might tell you, Liverpool and Arsenal are really struggling. You can make an argument that City have been lucky in some ways. They have an insane 26% conversion percentage. They're averaging nearly .5 goals/game from outside the box. But they're also creating the most chances in the box and are averaging nearly 70% of possession. On a scary note, despite averaging over 3 goals a game, City has, by far, the most blown big chances. Missing big chances, is actually a pretty good indicator of a high-quality player. Salah, Aguero, Jesus, Lacazette, Lukaku and even Kane show up in the top 10 to 15 or so.
I make fun, but United seem to be doing well defensively. It's probably why they're in second. Arsenal and Liverpool have identifiable issues, but have also probably been a hair unlucky It's still early enough that numbers can be a bit skewed. I don't know if certain teams have had more away games against other big teams. But in a lot of ways, the numbers confirm what our eyes are telling us. City looks a cut above. Tottenham are probably the most well-rounded team of the remaining competitors. Conte and Mourinho keep it relatively tighter than Klopp and Wenger.
Finding chance conceded numbers is more difficult, but we can look at the goals given up inside the 18 as a proxy. There, as your eyes might tell you, Liverpool and Arsenal are really struggling. You can make an argument that City have been lucky in some ways. They have an insane 26% conversion percentage. They're averaging nearly .5 goals/game from outside the box. But they're also creating the most chances in the box and are averaging nearly 70% of possession. On a scary note, despite averaging over 3 goals a game, City has, by far, the most blown big chances. Missing big chances, is actually a pretty good indicator of a high-quality player. Salah, Aguero, Jesus, Lacazette, Lukaku and even Kane show up in the top 10 to 15 or so.
I make fun, but United seem to be doing well defensively. It's probably why they're in second. Arsenal and Liverpool have identifiable issues, but have also probably been a hair unlucky It's still early enough that numbers can be a bit skewed. I don't know if certain teams have had more away games against other big teams. But in a lot of ways, the numbers confirm what our eyes are telling us. City looks a cut above. Tottenham are probably the most well-rounded team of the remaining competitors. Conte and Mourinho keep it relatively tighter than Klopp and Wenger.
B Maverick
Footballguy
United had a relatively easy schedule up until Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea with Tott being the only one at Old Trafford. United havent conceded at home outside the EFL cup vs Burton. Their struggles have been on the road giving up 2 to stoke, 1 to Moscow, 2 to Huddersfield, 1 to Chelsea (1-1-2 record). Also have a +18 gd in the EPL (23 scored, 5 against). All of those mean 2nd place, level with Tottenham but better on gd. Top 3 are only teams with double digit gd (chelsea at +9).
But to your point, chances have lessened with the loss of Pogba. Without him Mkhi, Lukaku have both looked off their marks. Oddly, also means less Mata on the pitch and less creativity. I like Herrera but he isnt a creative and is more defensive. Add in the increased use of Fellaini and well, you see the pattern....
Keep in mind Pogba was among the league leaders in chances created last season. And was looking better already this season.
El Floppo
Footballguy
I remember state/regional team action with kids from Hawaii coming over to the west coast.... what we'd think of as perfect soccer weather in the 50s- they were in leggings, gloves and hats.CletiusMaximus said:
also remember college team-mates from Jamaica having to play end of season games in places like hanover new hampshire in november... freshly snow-plowed fields and pure misery on their faces. my last college game was up there was on a field kind of like a slurpee... couldn't feel my feet after the first couple minutes. they were mangled by the end... but thawed out nicely in the shower for a fun surprise of pain.
B Maverick said:
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Not much other than not being as good as City. The biggest problem for any United manager for the next 20-30 years is they won't be SAF. The guy won and most of the time won with flair. Jose has done a really nice job IMO shoring up the defense without having any elite defenders (too early to tell how good Bailiy will be). Giving up only 5 goals in 11 games and all on the road is pretty damn good. Second in goals in the league while missing Pogba is pretty good in my book too. Honestly, City are just too good and despite the joking about a reverse jinx I really don't see any way they don't win the league running away.roadkill1292 said:
B Maverick
Footballguy
I think Pogba closes the gap a bit but overall I agree with this. The sad part is SAF could be very pragmatic at times but the memory of those is minimal due to the winning. And winning in every way you can imagine (blowouts, late goals, counters, fergie time). I believe he beat Arsenal with 7 defenders on the pitch (yes the final straw that made Pogba leave).
But City looks too dominant right now. Can they keep it up?
El Floppo
Footballguy
watching that Arsenal City game, pep has the players committing to pressing defensively and understanding their roles... it's just lethal. arsenal has guys like ozil who just refuse or are disinterested. but it'll be interesting to see United get back into full swing with pogba and mata. for that matter, chelsea will still have something to say about things... and liverpool if they can keep the backline from immolating weekly.
El Floppo
Footballguy
December will determine if we have a race or not.
From November 29 to January 2 - 35 days - City play 11 matches. (They have played 18 matches in the last 87 days)
That will test their depth, and ability to play with such a high intensity over an extended period. I think they are fine on the attacking end, but I think they are fairly thin on the defensive side, including defensive MFers.
If they are still sitting on an 8 point lead after January 2 - its over.
From November 29 to January 2 - 35 days - City play 11 matches. (They have played 18 matches in the last 87 days)
That will test their depth, and ability to play with such a high intensity over an extended period. I think they are fine on the attacking end, but I think they are fairly thin on the defensive side, including defensive MFers.
If they are still sitting on an 8 point lead after January 2 - its over.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Some fantastic quotes from Gattuso here about Pirlo
====================
Gennaro Gattuso says watching Milan teammate Andrea Pirlo made him want to “change profession”.
The pair played together for Carlo Ancelotti’s Rossoneri, with Ringhio doing the leg work while his more creative teammate supplied the fantasy.
Following the latter’s retirement yesterday, Gattuso was asked on Radio 24 whether his work had made Pirlo better, and he scoffed at the suggestion.
“Don’t talk nonsense, let’s not confuse Nutella with ****,” the Milan Primavera boss replied.
“When I saw him play it made me think I had to change profession. Nobody knows that better than me, because I started playing with him at Italy Under-15 level and then all the youth teams after that."
“It wasn’t only about his quality, but he was an animal covering 1000 metres, he had this athletic quality which is why he played until this age [38]."
“He was someone who ran so much."
“I played with him for about 20 years when you consider the national youth teams, in difficult moments I just gave it to him, I always felt assured when I was next to him."
“I understood what I had to do, and he was taking care of the rest. He helped me much more in my career than I did him."
“In the dressing room? He’s a big son of a… with all due respect to his mother! He teased me for months, he was very funny. I punched him more times than Bud Spencer did Terrence Hill!”
Pirlo left the Rossoneri for Juventus in 2011, something some Milanisti have never forgiven him for."
“He was incredibly lucky to find a Juventus who weren’t in Europe and worked so hard with [Antonio] Conte."
“You know how Conte is, he’s a bad guy for a week but after that you start to feel good. He [Pirlo] needed that, this work but strength in his legs and he got that desire back.
“In my opinion that was the secret.”
====================
Gennaro Gattuso says watching Milan teammate Andrea Pirlo made him want to “change profession”.
The pair played together for Carlo Ancelotti’s Rossoneri, with Ringhio doing the leg work while his more creative teammate supplied the fantasy.
Following the latter’s retirement yesterday, Gattuso was asked on Radio 24 whether his work had made Pirlo better, and he scoffed at the suggestion.
“Don’t talk nonsense, let’s not confuse Nutella with ****,” the Milan Primavera boss replied.
“When I saw him play it made me think I had to change profession. Nobody knows that better than me, because I started playing with him at Italy Under-15 level and then all the youth teams after that."
“It wasn’t only about his quality, but he was an animal covering 1000 metres, he had this athletic quality which is why he played until this age [38]."
“He was someone who ran so much."
“I played with him for about 20 years when you consider the national youth teams, in difficult moments I just gave it to him, I always felt assured when I was next to him."
“I understood what I had to do, and he was taking care of the rest. He helped me much more in my career than I did him."
“In the dressing room? He’s a big son of a… with all due respect to his mother! He teased me for months, he was very funny. I punched him more times than Bud Spencer did Terrence Hill!”
Pirlo left the Rossoneri for Juventus in 2011, something some Milanisti have never forgiven him for."
“He was incredibly lucky to find a Juventus who weren’t in Europe and worked so hard with [Antonio] Conte."
“You know how Conte is, he’s a bad guy for a week but after that you start to feel good. He [Pirlo] needed that, this work but strength in his legs and he got that desire back.
“In my opinion that was the secret.”
Last edited by a moderator:
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
I am following the big vote in Memphis tonight. The overall tenor is very positive but what is strange is that all the negatives have nothing to do with the stadium itself. The hold up seems to be 10 extra acres that are being thrown into the deal which allows for more development beyond the stadium needs.
If they can come to some sort of mediated ground on this, it looks like the vote could go through tonight (and this is the very last hurdle as I understand it).
If they can come to some sort of mediated ground on this, it looks like the vote could go through tonight (and this is the very last hurdle as I understand it).
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Welcome to MLS!!!
=====================
Steve CavendishVerified account @scavendish 2m
#BREAKING: Resolution in support of the stadium passes 31-6. Nashville commits to $250 million plan with team covering $225 million. Team will develop 10 acres on Fairgrounds property, subject to Metro Council negotiation over lease.
=====================
Steve CavendishVerified account @scavendish 2m
#BREAKING: Resolution in support of the stadium passes 31-6. Nashville commits to $250 million plan with team covering $225 million. Team will develop 10 acres on Fairgrounds property, subject to Metro Council negotiation over lease.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
I am going to go out on a limb and suggest that MLS is actually going to let in 3 teams in December with the note that Miami is simply no where close to ready.
I think it is going to be Nashville and then 2 out of Sacramento, Detroit and Cincy.
I think it is going to be Nashville and then 2 out of Sacramento, Detroit and Cincy.
Sammy3469
Footballguy
Looks like Messi is building his own national team for Argentina...
http://www.sport-english.com/en/news/lionel-messi-and-antonela-will-keep-going-until-they-get-a-girl-6410573
http://www.sport-english.com/en/news/lionel-messi-and-antonela-will-keep-going-until-they-get-a-girl-6410573
SwampDawg
Footballguy
Yep looks brutal in the northeast this weekend. I actually just asked my son this morning if he wanted a pair of the compression tights since he has a game Saturday morning and tryouts Sunday evening. He said no, he doesn't like to play with anything but shorts. He will be wearing an under armor top under his jersey, team knit cap and gloves however. I always say when we see a kid show up wearing regular sweatpants you can just not worry about them 99 rimes out of 100. We have a pretty great group of parents, the moms will complain but everyone will be out there rooting them on all 70 minutes, might be a few runs at halftime for coffee and hot chocolate.CletiusMaximus said:
We still have a tournament the following weekend, hopefully it gets back up to the normal low 50's for that.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
There's someone's 2018 WC avatar waiting to happen.I think we can all agree that Olivier is the prettiest damned striker in the EPL
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
I saw this on twitter today and thought of you guys talking about conversion rates. Sounds like CRo is having a nightmare year
AccaTracker AppVerified account @AccaTrackerTM
If Lionel Messi misses his next 507 shots in La Liga, he'll have the same conversion rate as Cristiano Ronaldo (2.08%)
AccaTracker AppVerified account @AccaTrackerTM
If Lionel Messi misses his next 507 shots in La Liga, he'll have the same conversion rate as Cristiano Ronaldo (2.08%)
