Official Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

[H8fulHuck]

Congrats to everyone still alive. You've beat out over half the field!

Very thankful to have weathered the storm with a rough start from Brady, Parker and Royal. Now comes my biggest test to survive weeks 7 and 8. Only 3 players haven't contributed through 5 weeks. Wells, Edge and Feely.

8 Tom Brady - 37

7 Matthew Stafford - 11

Major dice roll here. It worked out so far as Leftwich would have been the 3rd man here, but having the same bye as Brady edged me towards going with 2. Wanted to be different from most teams and I like Stafford's matchup vs. the Rams in Week 8. The fact that Brady had a slow start and Stafford's injury has really helped weed out many of the other owners here. I just hope Stafford comes back strong in week 8.

x - DeAngelo Williams - 37

8 - Willie Parker - 16

x - Chris Wells - 15

10 - Ahmad Bradshaw - 8

x - Glen Coffee - 2

7 - Edgerrin James - 1

RB is looking rough, but things change FAST in the NFL. I'm the first to admit that was wrong about Mendenhall. Credit goes to Tomlin for finding a way to motivate the kid. Wells looked like a man among boys in the preseason, patiently waiting for him to step up. Bradshaw was a must have in every version of my lineup. Coffee being a popular guy to own was a surprise to me, but he has already been worth the $2.

x - Anquan Boldin - 31

7 - Eddie Royal - 26

8 - Chris Henry - 12

7 - Derrick Mason - 9

7 - Nate Burleson - 5

9 - Percy Harvin - 5

Can't explain exactly what I was thinking here with 3 guys off week 7 and only rostering 6 WR. I shifted more toward RB to get Wells in the last few days, but failed to compensate for week 7 byes. OUCH! Mason and Burleson screamed value along with Boldin and Royal in this format. All the Boldin injury scuttlebut made him especially attractive projecting a low ownership % and a healthy season. Royal could be key down the stretch if the team can squeak by the next two weeks. Chris Henry's disappearance in the regular season fooled many of us.

x - Dallas Clark - 18

x - Jermichael Finley - 3

8 - Chris Baker - 1

Planned to get two higher priced TE, but at least one of Finley or Baker seemed primed for a big season. No brainer taking Clark who was my #1 ranked TE. Flex has come from this position 3 of the first 5 weeks.

7 - Olindo Mare - 1

9 - Jay Feely - 1

x - Dan Carpenter - 1

7 - Steve Hauschka - 1

Didn't plan on 4 k, but the way the roster shook out, I didn't like any other $1 RB or WR. The next best roster for me was to drop Stafford for Sanchez and add another WR, but keeping Stafford vs. the Rams week 8 just felt right. The diminished return of the 4th kicker still held more value than anyone else I could roster including an extra $ for a $2 kicker and a 23 man roster.

x - Chicago Bears - 5

x - Green Bay Packers - 3

9 - Cleveland Browns - 1

Took two great Ds and the Browns for their under-rated return game. The other $1 D combos didn't feel right.

Be gentle next week Turk!!!

Thank you for the pass this week Mr. Turk sir!Maybe having 7 players off on week 7 is lucky.

3305. Team 100641 | 100.0 | 139 |

 

[ctriopelle]

I think for some players you could mark them out on a week by week basis, even if they aren't yet guaranteed to be out for the season.That way the weekly "dead wood" numbers would be accurate.

I would like to do that, and I think this would be simple for me to implement as long as someone wants to feed me this list during the week. Again, it would need to be players forecast truly as zeros, not just players felt to be generally irrelevant since they can still end up having impact.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

I went with a 23 man roster now im down to 21.

OUT: Leon & J.Davis (14.00 bux im out of thus far)

My rb's are so thin now cause i went with the cheap 3rd type of rb's.

 

[datonn]

I came up about 7-8 FPs short this week. Best of luck to the 4,000 moving on! It's been fun.

 

[Raleigh Engineers]

According to the Turk's simulation, I had a 3.3% chance of advancing heading into MNF...but it appears, according to FantasyStar, that I may have made the cut! If true,thanks to DeSean Jackson and the Eagles Defense (-6) for pushing me from about 91 points to 132.8 tonight!

 

[ctriopelle]

I'm getting 130.4 for the final cut, but depending on how things adjust, it may end up as low as 130.2 from what I'd guess. Lots of teams at 130.2 so I doubt it could fall below that. Looks like this is your list of staffers biting the dust this week too...

Bruce Henderson

Jeff Haseley

Doug Drinen

Jeff Pasquino

Keith Overton

Chase Stuart

 

[kevzilla]

Pretty sure I'm toast. I had Betts as well as Cooley, and they both came up craps. I'm going to wait for the Turk to knock on my door tomorrow morning...but I'll be dressed and ready to leave.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

.....and this staffer is OUT. So much for my roster with Shaun Hill getting benched and LWash breaking his leg. Oh well.

Good luck guys.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm getting 130.4 for the final cut, but depending on how things adjust, it may end up as low as 130.2 from what I'd guess. Lots of teams at 130.2 so I doubt it could fall below that. Looks like this is your list of staffers biting the dust this week too...Bruce HendersonJeff HaseleyDoug DrinenJeff PasquinoKeith OvertonChase Stuart

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

still alive, but down to Ryan Grant and Chester Taylor as healthy RB next week. Schaub to Daniels 3x over would help a lot...

 

[jdoggydogg]

I'm getting 130.4 for the final cut, but depending on how things adjust, it may end up as low as 130.2 from what I'd guess.

I have 130.90!

 

[Deuceman]

Help me out here............Where can I see updates of the scores of everyone before they are final?

 

[nashua55]

I'm getting 130.4 for the final cut, but depending on how things adjust, it may end up as low as 130.2 from what I'd guess.

I have 130.90!

Another close call. I have 131.15. I hope it is enough.

 

[Das Boot]

Larry Johnson's tweets and big mouth might add up to more playing time for Jamaal Charles.

 

[Caveman_Nick]

Help me out here............Where can I see updates of the scores of everyone before they are final?

If you are looking for the sim, posted before games are played and after Sunday's games, look for posts by Doug Drinen.If you are looking for scores of players, look here.

 

[bostonfred]

Thank you, Philly D.

 

[Fennis]

Pre-MNF sim

21.6% survival chance? Last week going into MNF I was at 3.9% and made it. 21.6% should be cake.

Came up a bit short at 125.20. 3.80 for my RBs was my week 7 problem (Betts and W. Parker)It was fun, good luck to all that are left.

 

[fantasysharkctb]

Got 132.6 on the week with F Jones, R Rice, Bradshaw, B Scott and Kevin Smith remaining at RB and Calvin, Ocho, Nate Washington, Harvin, and Chaz Schillins there at WR.

Thank you NO Defense!

 

[jon_mx]

Larry Johnson's tweets and big mouth might add up to more playing time for Jamaal Charles.

Jamal Charles should have been given a chance by now. I think his role keeps increasing, but the coach is still reluctant to give him a start.

 

[Doug Drinen]

Week 7 results

Contest querier

Updated ownership stats

Simulator accuracy report:

survprob	 tot  surv	 pct---------------------------95--99   681   658	96.690--94  1024   949	92.785--89   811   708	87.380--84   625   508	81.375--79   473   387	81.870--74   332   239	72.065--69   283   177	62.560--64   180   115	63.955--59   153	89	58.250--54   124	69	55.645--49	90	46	51.140--44	53	23	43.435--39	45	15	33.330--34	41	 9	22.025--29	36	12	33.320--24	28	 2	 7.115--19	18	 4	22.210--14	 9	 0	 0.0 5-- 9	 6	 1	16.7 0-- 4	 8	 0	 0.0

Roster size report

+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+| roster_size | number | alive | pct_alive |+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+|		  20 |   5181 |  1131 |	0.2183 ||		  21 |   2032 |   511 |	0.2515 ||		  22 |   1445 |   484 |	0.3349 ||		  23 |   1291 |   471 |	0.3648 ||		  24 |   3328 |  1414 |	0.4249 ||	   TOTAL |  13277 |  4011 |	0.3021 |+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+

 

[fsufan]

cut off 130.29

i scored 130.70

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Elimination rates for the week:

+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+	 | roster_size | number | alive | pct_alive |	Elimination Rates	 +-------------+--------+-------+-----------+	 |		  20 |   5181 |  1131 |	0.2183 |	   27.94%	 |		  21 |   2032 |   511 |	0.2515 |	   20.16%	 |		  22 |   1445 |   484 |	0.3349 |	   20.92%	 |		  23 |   1291 |   471 |	0.3648 |	   17.94%	 |		  24 |   3328 |  1414 |	0.4249 |	   18.92%	 |	   TOTAL |  13277 |  4011 |	0.3021 |	 +-------------+--------+-------+-----------+

 

[Balance]

I can see all the pay content, but it is asking me to login (I'm already logged in) to see my results. Then tells me my login is incorrect.

 

[Go Pack]

Missed the cut by a few points. Bad week for Finley & Westbrook to leave the games very early since my lineup was thin this week to begin with.

 

[ceo3west]

Knocked out because Harvin's kick return doesn't count

 

[jon_mx]

Knocked out because Harvin's kick return doesn't count

Knocked out because you don't know the rules.

 

[jon_mx]

cut off 130.29i scored 130.70

130.70 is just as good as 173. This is pass-fail right now.

 

[smackdaddies]

Pretty sure I'm toast. I had Betts as well as Cooley, and they both came up craps. I'm going to wait for the Turk to knock on my door tomorrow morning...but I'll be dressed and ready to leave.

Betts saved me - his 3.6points was enough to bring me over the line (and yes, my team does have some problems - but I am still in it)

 

[Bayhawks]

cut off 130.29

Damn it-129.30!!!

 

[smackdaddies]

Knocked out because Harvin's kick return doesn't count

Knocked out because you don't know the rules.

 

[Short Corner]

cut off 130.29i scored 130.70

130.70 is just as good as 173. This is pass-fail right now.

I would rather squeek by as teams similar to yours are more likely to be eliminated.

 

[Short Corner]

130.1

Needed another catch from Cooley. Even had I advanced I was in trouble as the loss of Cooley would have made it 4 guys on my roster out for the year.

 

[nzranger]

.....and this staffer is OUT. So much for my roster with Shaun Hill getting benched and LWash breaking his leg. Oh well.Good luck guys.

6 of 16 staffers eliminated this week..

 

[kevzilla]

Oh, well. I'm only good in even-numbered years anyway.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Elimination rates for the week:

+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+	 | roster_size | number | alive | pct_alive |	Elimination Rates	 +-------------+--------+-------+-----------+	 |		  20 |   5181 |  1131 |	0.2183 |	   27.94%	 |		  21 |   2032 |   511 |	0.2515 |	   20.16%	 |		  22 |   1445 |   484 |	0.3349 |	   20.92%	 |		  23 |   1291 |   471 |	0.3648 |	   17.94%	 |		  24 |   3328 |  1414 |	0.4249 |	   18.92%	 |	   TOTAL |  13277 |  4011 |	0.3021 |	 +-------------+--------+-------+-----------+

23 player teams were more likely to advance than 24 this week. Proof that smaller rosters win!!

 

[stlrams]

Moving on with ease for past 7 weeks averaging 160pts but I'm may down to one RB (R Grant) due to bye weeks and Westbrook going down. Really enjoying the contest.

 

[kface]

another week of 180...only got 5pts from my 3 kickers as two of them were involved in shut outs...thank you owen daniels and matt shaub

 

[Bankerguy]

Could all 4000 current survivors please check in-I want to size up my competiton.

:joking:

 

[Anthony Borbely]

.....and this staffer is OUT. So much for my roster with Shaun Hill getting benched and LWash breaking his leg. Oh well.Good luck guys.

6 of 16 staffers eliminated this week..

I'm probably joining them this week. Brady is on a bye and Shaun Hill was my backup, so no QB. I lost Cooley and Leon Washington. Maroney is on a bye. I have one kicker, only Celek at TE, and 3 of my RBs are Parker, Edge and Chris Brown...so it is basically S Jax and pray like hell at RB. at WR, I have DeSean, Boldin, Royal, Henderson, Britt, and possibly Schilens. I think I'm doomed unless someone like S Jax or one of my WRs lights up the scoreboard.

 

[jon_mx]

I'm probably joining them this week. Brady is on a bye and Shaun Hill was my backup, so no QB. I lost Cooley and Leon Washington. Maroney is on a bye. I have one kicker, only Celek at TE, and 3 of my RBs are Parker, Edge and Chris Brown...so it is basically S Jax and pray like hell at RB.

That is a tough week, losing three players. You were one of eight teams that had those three who were still alive. $38 worth of players too. I lost shaun hill too, but it wasn't so bad since Rivers has had his bye week. So Shaun did his job for me already assuming Rivers stays healthy.

 

[Barry Jive and The Uptown Five]

Interesting thing I was able to check today. Reviewing the rosters for bye week allocations here's how the current 6101 teams have their byes spread out (and % of total players on bye):Week 4: 13603 Byes (10.1%)Week 5: 24486 byes (18.2%)Week 6: 15446 byes (11.5%)Week 7: 25606 byes (19.0%)Week 8: 20623 byes (15.3%)Week 9: 24436 byes (18.2%)Week 10: 10233 byes (7.6%)Basically, this week is higher scoring in part because a relatively low percentage of players are off. Next week should have much lower scoring with nearly 2x the players on bye. Week 9 should have similarly reduced scoring compared to what would be expected (although the cut % is pretty high my then). I'll look at things again after each week to see how things look with the survivors.

Here's how the 5001 remaining teams have their byes allocated (week/% of total players remaining on bye/total players on bye):wk 4 10.1% 11160wk 5 18.7% 20613wk 6 10.7% 11819wk 7 19.0% 21018wk 8 15.3% 16952wk 9 18.4% 20282wk 10 7.9% 8678

OK - ut on nerd glasses:Here's my prediction for WK 7 BYE Distributionswk 4 10.1%....9038wk 5 18.8%..16693wk 6 10.8%....9571wk 7 17.4%..15445 ... Lose 5573 rostered players from WK7 BYESwk 8 15.5%..13278wk 9 18.5%..16425wk 10 7.9%....7028

Update? Were the Week 7 predictions anywhere near close?

 

[rzrback77]

Still in, but sinking from top echelon with injuries....

Only three RBs left - K Smith, Ryan Grant and yikes Willie Parker

WR corps several ineffective - not one score from Schilens or Engram, K Britt disappearing along with the Titans passing game and now AJ injured

TE - lost Cooley and Finley also injured

total roster reduced down from 24 to 21 with three players lost for the year - J Davis, L Washington, and C Cooley

 

[Bankerguy]

I would be interested to see the Bye week stats for this coming week. Here are the byes: Bengals, Chiefs, Patriots, Steelers, Buccaneers, Redskins. I'm hoping there are tons of Moss/Brady owners. I'll be missing Roethlisberger and need Hasselback to put up decent numbers agaisnt the Cowboys.

 

[jon_mx]

Bye weeks......Cincinnati, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Washington, New England.....

Could be some Palmer and Brady folks in trouble this week if they don't have backups. Benson owners will be missing him a lot. Randy Moss, Ocho, S. Holmes owners may be hurting a bit too.

I am missing Randy Moss and Chris Henry...well and Betts and C. Baker. At WR, still have Colston, Mason, Nicks and Meachem.....I think I can get two good scores and one ok score out of them. Going to have to get my flex from RB...... DeAngelo, Grant, and Rice. So far those three have been very dependable, so I should be in OK shape relative to some other teams.

 

[jon_mx]

I would be interested to see the Bye week stats for this coming week. Here are the byes: Bengals, Chiefs, Patriots, Steelers, Buccaneers, Redskins. I'm hoping there are tons of Moss/Brady owners. I'll be missing Roethlisberger and need Hasselback to put up decent numbers agaisnt the Cowboys.

There were 425 Moss AND Brady owners to begin with, but 75% of them are gone already. But there are still 104 left. Brady and Moss represents 1/3rd of their salary cap. Have to imagine most of those 104 will not be around next week.

 

[gianmarco]

Still in with Bradshaw/Felix as my RB's this past week

Welcome back Ray Rice and Kevin Smith.

ETA -- There were 123 of us owners with Rice/K. Smith that missed both on bye this week. 44 got the axe (1/3rd).

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

closest week for me toward elimination yet, made the cut by 19.

My Rbs are making me nervous

 

[proninja]

cut off 130.29i scored 130.70

130.70 is just as good as 173. This is pass-fail right now.

The extra points I've scored over the cut in past weeks don't comfort me at all right now

 

[The Big Guy]

I am still alive, but having only Sanchez and Stafford left standing as QBs is telling me how short my lifespan is. My all-useless team:

Hill

Leftwich

Willie Parker

Felix Jones

Chris Brown

Edge

Chansi Stuckey

Surviving in spite of using Chris Henry's stats in 5 out of 7 weeks so far. Too many flier on potential guys, looking for value and missing.

 

[ctriopelle]

Here's the breakdown of "true roster size" adjusted for season ending injuries. This does not include benchings or short term injuries...

1 1 19 149 484 937 674 774 659 303

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

As you can see, not many teams are still at the full 24, with about 750 teams below 20. Accounting for byes this week, we have teams as low as 10 players this week (4 of them) and the possibility of just 9 players in week 9 (I think just 1). here's the bye adjusted breakdown for this week, and this again does not account for possible short term injuries or assumed benchings....

4 10 27 78 174 309 506 697 720 644 446 254 105 24 3

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24