Official Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

[GloryDaze]

Now would you have one stud at this point, or two average guys? I would rather have one stud.

In this contest, I'd much rather have two 'average' guys.

 

[CalBear]

We were debating having a Stud post bye week versus having two average QB's. So no it was not wrong. I am not advocating one QB. I have three. Shaun Hill worked fine covering the bye, but now is worthless. I also have Leinart as a flyer. But at this point it is down to one stud effectively. Now would you have one stud at this point, or two average guys? I would rather have one stud.

Let's look at that. Tom Brady hasn't had a bye yet; if you have him, you scored (FBG scoring, maybe slightly different than contest scoring):27.89.018.825.020.649.026.9Average 25.3 per week. Now, you could have gotten much more than this level of production if you had Matt Schaub and Ben Roethlisberger for a lot less money, but I'm even going to leave them out for the purposes of this discussion. Let's say instead of any of these guys, you have Carson Palmer and Joe Flacco (combined cost $35 to Brady's $37). So far you scored:30.226.422.621.518.429.239.6Average 26.8 per week, and that includes Flacco's bye.So with the non-studs, you saved $2, reduced your risk, and got more production. This is why 24-team rosters are killing 20-team rosters.(Just for fun, the Roethlisberger/Schaub combo cost $39 to Brady's $37, and has averaged 28.8 per week).

 

[tomarken]

So you would you buy with the $5? You said yourself there was no QB value at that price range this year.Ryan/Garrard is a better strategy than Manning. They've scored more points in five of the seven weeks so far. I'm not sure anything is more important than that.

Why does the $5 have to be spent on a QB?IMO, looking at this strictly from a QB perspective is a mistake. The correct comparison is Manning + $5 upgrade/new player(s) vs. Ryan/Garrard. And since we have the luxury of hindsight, identifying the $5 upgrade/new player(s) isnt particularly helpful.

Because no one would advocate taking just one QB as a viable strategy. At the very least you want your bye week covered. Therefore saying Manning at $32 is better value than Ryan/Garrard at $37 not only completely disregards (a) that Ryan/Garrard have actually out performed Manning most of the year and (b) Manning was handpicked in hindsight anyway, but you still need to get a backup for Manning's bye week. Everything about the argument is wrong.

We were debating having a Stud post bye week versus having two average QB's. So no it was not wrong. I am not advocating one QB. I have three. Shaun Hill worked fine covering the bye, but now is worthless. I also have Leinart as a flyer. But at this point it is down to one stud effectively. Now would you have one stud at this point, or two average guys? I would rather have one stud.

Well, if we're allowed to make up whatever rules we want, I want eight stud QBs. Clearly that's better than one. Unfortunately the rules effectively prohibit this, just like they prohibit changing your roster after week 7, so I still don't get your point. Contest strategy encompasses the entire length of the contest, not just post-bye weeks. If I could use a QBBC to get to the final 250, and then switch to Manning, I might consider it (although I still probably wouldn't).

 

[Volleydog]

#78 in the Cumulative (175.53 Avg)

93.1% chance of survival - week 8

629 in the power rankings, but only 2926 UQ

 

[jon_mx]

Well, if we're allowed to make up whatever rules we want, I want eight stud QBs. Clearly that's better than one. Unfortunately the rules effectively prohibit this, just like they prohibit changing your roster after week 7, so I still don't get your point. Contest strategy encompasses the entire length of the contest, not just post-bye weeks. If I could use a QBBC to get to the final 250, and then switch to Manning, I might consider it (although I still probably wouldn't).

The point is the debate of quality vs. quantity. Certainly you can after the fact pick a couple of guys who were projected to be average and turned into a studs, and say hey quantity is better. But the real question is are you better off spending big bucks to get a guy who should have many bigs week, or couple of good players who score decent each week but will have fewer big weeks. One true stud vs. two true average players. If you are some kind of psycho-genius with a crystal ball and knows Schaub is going to lead the league in passing and Benson is going to lead the league in rushing, who can compete with you? I thought the Manning versus Garrad and Ryan was a decent example of how it worked out based on players playing to their expected levels.

 

[GloryDaze]

I thought the Manning versus Garrad and Ryan was a decent example of how it worked out based on players playing to their expected levels.

It is because Manning is the only stud QB that hasn't thrown up a clunker or two yet.

 

[tomarken]

Well, if we're allowed to make up whatever rules we want, I want eight stud QBs. Clearly that's better than one.

Unfortunately the rules effectively prohibit this, just like they prohibit changing your roster after week 7, so I still don't get your point. Contest strategy encompasses the entire length of the contest, not just post-bye weeks. If I could use a QBBC to get to the final 250, and then switch to Manning, I might consider it (although I still probably wouldn't).

The point is the debate of quality vs. quantity. Certainly you can after the fact pick a couple of guys who were projected to be average and turned into a studs, and say hey quantity is better. But the real question is are you better off spending big bucks to get a guy who should have many bigs week, or couple of good players who score decent each week but will have fewer big weeks. One true stud vs. two true average players. If you are some kind of psycho-genius with a crystal ball and knows Schaub is going to lead the league in passing and Benson is going to lead the league in rushing, who can compete with you? I thought the Manning versus Garrad and Ryan was a decent example of how it worked out based on players playing to their expected levels.

You're the one cherrypicking players and trying to ignore half the season. And the ones you picked don't even support your point, which is why you continue to make no sense - Manning has been outscored by the Ryan/Garrard combo most of the year.

 

[jon_mx]

I thought the Manning versus Garrad and Ryan was a decent example of how it worked out based on players playing to their expected levels.

It is because Manning is the only stud QB that hasn't thrown up a clunker or two yet.

At this point it does not matter. What matters is who puts up big numbers weeks 14-16. And I would still be rather sitting with one of the top QB at that point..... Manning/Brady/Brees/Schaub

 

[GloryDaze]

I thought the Manning versus Garrad and Ryan was a decent example of how it worked out based on players playing to their expected levels.

It is because Manning is the only stud QB that hasn't thrown up a clunker or two yet.

At this point it does not matter. What matters is who puts up big numbers weeks 14-16. And I would still be rather sitting with one of the top QB at that point..... Manning/Brady/Brees/Schaub

So if Ryan and Garrard have consistently put up a better number than the studs, magically in weeks 14-16 this is not going to be the case?

 

[Sinn Fein]

I think I started this last discussion, but never followed up.

My observation of the power rankings was based on looking at my team - I have Hasselbeck (not a stud QB BTW), Hill and Leinart as my QBs.

Obviously Hill and, presumably, Leinart are worthless in the power rankings - literally worthless - probably have no projected stats to count.

Now, if someone has Hasselbeck, Delhomme, and Russell they would score higher in the power rating by virtue of being able to add a percentage of the stats for Delhomme and Russell. I do understand that it is possible for Delhomme and Russell to outscore Hasselbeck - so they have some value - but not enough to add 50% of the second, and 25% of the third.

Lets say Hasselbeck is projected to score 100 points, Delhomme 60, and Russell 40, Hill and Leinart 0

My team would get 100 points, the other team 140 points. Is the Hasselbeck/Delhomme/Russel team really 40% better?

For a power ranking, I would take the best projected score each week for the listed positions. I suspect the projections are numbers (objective) driven, meaning you could probably identify the projections each week based on the opponent (i.e they would score higher against teams with weak defense, and lower against strong defenses).

Early in the season, breaking out the season-long projection by game might be hard, but by now you have enough data to take the season-long projection and tweak it up or down based on the opponent. Then simply take the top QB, top-2 RBs, etc. to identify the power ranking. That would give you a better sense of how a team is likely to fare for the rest of the season.

 

[ctriopelle]

I think I started this last discussion, but never followed up.My observation of the power rankings was based on looking at my team - I have Hasselbeck (not a stud QB BTW), Hill and Leinart as my QBs.Obviously Hill and, presumably, Leinart are worthless in the power rankings - literally worthless - probably have no projected stats to count. Now, if someone has Hasselbeck, Delhomme, and Russell they would score higher in the power rating by virtue of being able to add a percentage of the stats for Delhomme and Russell. I do understand that it is possible for Delhomme and Russell to outscore Hasselbeck - so they have some value - but not enough to add 50% of the second, and 25% of the third.Lets say Hasselbeck is projected to score 100 points, Delhomme 60, and Russell 40, Hill and Leinart 0My team would get 100 points, the other team 140 points. Is the Hasselbeck/Delhomme/Russel team really 40% better?For a power ranking, I would take the best projected score each week for the listed positions. I suspect the projections are numbers (objective) driven, meaning you could probably identify the projections each week based on the opponent (i.e they would score higher against teams with weak defense, and lower against strong defenses). Early in the season, breaking out the season-long projection by game might be hard, but by now you have enough data to take the season-long projection and tweak it up or down based on the opponent. Then simply take the top QB, top-2 RBs, etc. to identify the power ranking. That would give you a better sense of how a team is likely to fare for the rest of the season.

I wouldn't get too jacked up about power ranking theory, it's no different than college ranking polls. Nice to give you an idea of who is good, but won't tell you squat of who will win it all (except in the case of the BCS, which is a crock anyway). I was ranked #1 or #2 at some point last season and didn't even make the finals. I believe the years I did make top 250 there were rankings then also, and I was never ranked high at all. One year I was in the top 5 during the finals and then crashed the last week. No matter how Turk tweaks them, someone will be unhappy with the method, but it's all a matter of bragging rights anyway.

 

[Marauder]

I think I started this last discussion, but never followed up.My observation of the power rankings was based on looking at my team - I have Hasselbeck (not a stud QB BTW), Hill and Leinart as my QBs.Obviously Hill and, presumably, Leinart are worthless in the power rankings - literally worthless - probably have no projected stats to count. Now, if someone has Hasselbeck, Delhomme, and Russell they would score higher in the power rating by virtue of being able to add a percentage of the stats for Delhomme and Russell. I do understand that it is possible for Delhomme and Russell to outscore Hasselbeck - so they have some value - but not enough to add 50% of the second, and 25% of the third.Lets say Hasselbeck is projected to score 100 points, Delhomme 60, and Russell 40, Hill and Leinart 0My team would get 100 points, the other team 140 points. Is the Hasselbeck/Delhomme/Russel team really 40% better?For a power ranking, I would take the best projected score each week for the listed positions. I suspect the projections are numbers (objective) driven, meaning you could probably identify the projections each week based on the opponent (i.e they would score higher against teams with weak defense, and lower against strong defenses). Early in the season, breaking out the season-long projection by game might be hard, but by now you have enough data to take the season-long projection and tweak it up or down based on the opponent. Then simply take the top QB, top-2 RBs, etc. to identify the power ranking. That would give you a better sense of how a team is likely to fare for the rest of the season.

I disagree with this. Your way would overrate the teams that are top-heavy. The problem is that NFL players are inconsistent which causes projections to have a high margin for error. If you look at your own roster, I bet most of your players have counted for you at least once and many times it was not the ones who were projected to score the most. That's why a 24 man roster is better than a 20 man roster and why 2 good QB's is better than one. Doug's way gives a team credit for having good depth, a very important trait in this contest even late in the season.That said, his method is not perfect. I haven't looked at it this week but last week most of the teams at the top had 3 QB's, 3 TE's and 3 kickers. I think that 25% for the third guy at these positions overstates their value relative to the 10% of the extra RB or WR. I think his percentages could use some tweaking by position.

 

[Alberta Clipper]

I'm just catching up on this thread and saw the ryan/garrard debate.

These are my 2 QB so if anyone is wondering what they have done in the contest so far:

Ryan/Garrard $37 total salary, 184 total QB pts, average 26 ppg, min 20 and byes complete.

There's prob similar combos out there that are middle of pack QB but work well together.

 

[Bad_Mo]

Kinda liking my 898 power ranking...but not my 78.4% chance of survival this week. My team is smoke and mirrors.

 

[smackdaddies]

Or, you go with Rogers at 27 (and no backup) , and spend the other money on other positions.

 

[Das Boot]

Or, you go with Rogers at 27 (and no backup) , and spend the other money on other positions.

Is this what you did?... if you don't mind, what is your team #, I'd like to follow how it works out.The one QB idea tempts me every year, but it's a true riverboat gambler strategy.An injury knocks you out... the bye week is a gamble... and every QB has at least a couple really bad FF scoring weeks, usually more.But it would be a flippin' sweet advantage to have another $15 or $20 WR.

 

[Doug Drinen]

For the record

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

low scoring thus far by everyone...

 

[gianmarco]

Does Josh Brown get the pts for the passing TD??

 

[Das Boot]

Does Josh Brown get the pts for the passing TD??

Doesn't look like it per the rules:Scoring:Scoring will be calculated to two decimal places (no rounding).Player Scoring (QB, RB, WR, TE)Passing TDs = 6 pointsInterceptions Thrown = -1 pointsRushing TD = 6 pointsReceiving TD = 6 pointsPassing Yardage = .05 points per yardRushing Yardage = .10 points per yardReceiving Yardage = .10 points per yardReceptions for RB = 0.5 pointsReceptions for WR = 1.0 pointsReceptions for TE = 1.5 pointsNo points scored for 2 point conversionsKicker Scoring (PK)Field Goal Made (0-29 yards) = 3 pointsField Goal Made (30-39 yards) = 4 pointsField Goal Made (40-49 yards) = 5 pointsField Goal Made (50+ yards) = 6 pointsExtra Point Made = 1 pointDef/ST Scoring (Def/ST)Sack = 1 pointInterception = 2 pointsFumble Recovery = 2 pointsSafety = 2 pointsDefensive/ST TD = 6 points (Kickoff return, punt return, blocked FG return, blocked punt return, interception return, fumble recovery return, etc. Note: ALL fumble recoveries and non-offensive TDs will count)All scoring is determined final at 11:59pm on Tuesday regardless if the NFL later changes the data. Preliminary weekly results will be published on Tuesday morning following the completion of all games.

 

[Das Boot]

FantasyStar scoring is missing for at least a few players, e.g. DeSean Jackson, Dan Carpenter...

 

[jonm8]

Doesn't seem like all the scoring on Fantasy Star is updated...Ray Rice is way behind for instance..not sure about others..

 

[smackdaddies]

Does Josh Brown get the pts for the passing TD??

Doesn't look like it per the rules:Scoring:Scoring will be calculated to two decimal places (no rounding).Player Scoring (QB, RB, WR, TE)Passing TDs = 6 pointsInterceptions Thrown = -1 pointsRushing TD = 6 pointsReceiving TD = 6 pointsPassing Yardage = .05 points per yardRushing Yardage = .10 points per yardReceiving Yardage = .10 points per yardReceptions for RB = 0.5 pointsReceptions for WR = 1.0 pointsReceptions for TE = 1.5 pointsNo points scored for 2 point conversionsKicker Scoring (PK)Field Goal Made (0-29 yards) = 3 pointsField Goal Made (30-39 yards) = 4 pointsField Goal Made (40-49 yards) = 5 pointsField Goal Made (50+ yards) = 6 pointsExtra Point Made = 1 pointDef/ST Scoring (Def/ST)Sack = 1 pointInterception = 2 pointsFumble Recovery = 2 pointsSafety = 2 pointsDefensive/ST TD = 6 points (Kickoff return, punt return, blocked FG return, blocked punt return, interception return, fumble recovery return, etc. Note: ALL fumble recoveries and non-offensive TDs will count)All scoring is determined final at 11:59pm on Tuesday regardless if the NFL later changes the data. Preliminary weekly results will be published on Tuesday morning following the completion of all games.

Why wouldnt he? Passing TD scores are not limited to QB. You kill it you keep it. Punt and Kick returns are explicitly not scored by the player, only by the D/ST team. Not so for TD passes.

 

[smackdaddies]

Or, you go with Rogers at 27 (and no backup) , and spend the other money on other positions.

Is this what you did?... if you don't mind, what is your team #, I'd like to follow how it works out.The one QB idea tempts me every year, but it's a true riverboat gambler strategy.An injury knocks you out... the bye week is a gamble... and every QB has at least a couple really bad FF scoring weeks, usually more.But it would be a flippin' sweet advantage to have another $15 or $20 WR.

Chickened out - went with leftwich also, but as soon as they were locked, i kicked myself. Rodgers was a week 5 bye, I counted on my other players making it work, they did100823 is the team - still kicking (87% chance this week), but I don't think I will make much further.

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

Why wouldnt he? Passing TD scores are not limited to QB. You kill it you keep it. Punt and Kick returns are explicitly not scored by the player, only by the D/ST team. Not so for TD passes.

Look at the groupings. First grouping is for QB, RB, WR, TE. Second is for PK. Third is D/ST. Passing TDs are only listed in the first grouping.

 

[smackdaddies]

Why wouldnt he? Passing TD scores are not limited to QB. You kill it you keep it. Punt and Kick returns are explicitly not scored by the player, only by the D/ST team. Not so for TD passes.

Look at the groupings. First grouping is for QB, RB, WR, TE. Second is for PK. Third is D/ST. Passing TDs are only listed in the first grouping.

You could well be correct.

 

[ctriopelle]

Doesn't seem like all the scoring on Fantasy Star is updated...Ray Rice is way behind for instance..not sure about others..

Not sure what his happening. I sent a PM to OC...

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Does Josh Brown get the pts for the passing TD??

Doesn't look like it per the rules:Scoring:Scoring will be calculated to two decimal places (no rounding).Player Scoring (QB, RB, WR, TE)Passing TDs = 6 pointsInterceptions Thrown = -1 pointsRushing TD = 6 pointsReceiving TD = 6 pointsPassing Yardage = .05 points per yardRushing Yardage = .10 points per yardReceiving Yardage = .10 points per yardReceptions for RB = 0.5 pointsReceptions for WR = 1.0 pointsReceptions for TE = 1.5 pointsNo points scored for 2 point conversionsKicker Scoring (PK)Field Goal Made (0-29 yards) = 3 pointsField Goal Made (30-39 yards) = 4 pointsField Goal Made (40-49 yards) = 5 pointsField Goal Made (50+ yards) = 6 pointsExtra Point Made = 1 pointDef/ST Scoring (Def/ST)Sack = 1 pointInterception = 2 pointsFumble Recovery = 2 pointsSafety = 2 pointsDefensive/ST TD = 6 points (Kickoff return, punt return, blocked FG return, blocked punt return, interception return, fumble recovery return, etc. Note: ALL fumble recoveries and non-offensive TDs will count)All scoring is determined final at 11:59pm on Tuesday regardless if the NFL later changes the data. Preliminary weekly results will be published on Tuesday morning following the completion of all games.

Why wouldnt he? Passing TD scores are not limited to QB. You kill it you keep it. Punt and Kick returns are explicitly not scored by the player, only by the D/ST team. Not so for TD passes.

The rules look pretty clear.

Player Scoring (QB, RB, WR, TE)

Kicker Scoring (PK)

 

[Organized Chaos]

Doesn't seem like all the scoring on Fantasy Star is updated...Ray Rice is way behind for instance..not sure about others..

Not sure what his happening. I sent a PM to OC...

I apologize, the stat service provider is off and a ticket in in to resolve it. I am updating in a support thread at TFS..

 

[Verbal Kint]

I may be done if Owen Daniels is out for the year. He was one of my most consistent performers. poop.

 

[Titans_fan]

The 20 or 24 point may be moot very soon....I'm in the process of losing players every week....so far, I'm down Leon Washington, Owen Daniels, James Davis for the season. On top of that, McFadden, Norwood, Cooley for week 8 at least.

that puts me at 18 for week 9 if none play plus the byes (Harvin, MINN DEF)....not good...of course I've gotta get through this week first....*SIGH*

 

[Dolfan]

I'm pretty sure Josh Brown won't get the points for the TD pass, but could someone from the site please confirm this?

 

[BassNBrew]

I'm pretty sure Josh Brown won't get the points for the TD pass, but could someone from the site please confirm this?

What's to confirm? It's in print. They're not going to change the scoring rules mid-stream.

 

[Das Boot]

I'm pretty sure Josh Brown won't get the points for the TD pass, but could someone from the site please confirm this?

I'm 100% sure per the rules.There would be (rightful) complaints from bubble teams that got bumped if he did get the points.

 

[LHUCKS]

should be alive

Hassel

Deangelo

McCoy

Bradshaw

V-Jax

D-Jax

Mason

Carlson

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

Team PDG is turning out the lights.

 

[davper]

Uh-oh!!

134.9 with just Colston(-9.6).

 

[jonm8]

The cutoff going into Monday Night is 113.55.....seems like the cutoff maybe in the low 120's. A little bit nervouse sitting at 120.15 with Coleston and Meachem still left and with one open spot at WR and Flex at 6.60. Should squeeze by assume Coleston catches some balls.

 

[jonm8]

Uh-oh!! 134.9 with just Colston(-9.6).

You are safe...there is no way the cutoff goes abobe 130.

 

[Project Mayhem]

Sitting at 128 with Turner still to go. Cautiously optimistic...

 

[redaddy25]

Had a pretty big week, around 188... Rodgers, DWill, Rice, DJax, VJax, Mason, Harvin, DalClark...

I would think the cut would be low with the scoring this week.

 

[bryhamm]

Gonna be close for me.

134.05 with Henderson and Meachum (-6.4 and -6.9 for my 2 lowest) and the Saints D (-6)

 

[davper]

Uh-oh!! 134.9 with just Colston(-9.6).

You are safe...there is no way the cutoff goes abobe 130.

 

[Twilight]

For the record

Average score predicted this morning:156Actual score (just NO D-8 to go) :157

 

[bryhamm]

Uh-oh!! 134.9 with just Colston(-9.6).

You are safe...there is no way the cutoff goes abobe 130.

I hope you are right

 

[ctriopelle]

Uh-oh!! 134.9 with just Colston(-9.6).

You are safe...there is no way the cutoff goes abobe 130.

Guessing the Turk's pregame estimate may end up high as well. I'll work on doing an estimate based on Dodds' stats to see about where that would put us.

 

[Barry Jive and The Uptown Five]

should be aliveHasselDeangeloMcCoyBradshawV-JaxD-JaxMasonCarlson

~127.75 without PK & DEF

 

[Fantasy Man]

Gonna be a somewhat tense Monday night for me. At 108 plus all the points from Brees and the Falcons D.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

I wont be around to much longer with my guys thats dropping.

But right now im at 137 + what ever Roddy gives me.

Down to slim pickings at rb and only 1 te now.

 

[Anthony Borbely]