What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

***Official Super Bowl LII Thread*** - Eagles vs Patriots (1 Viewer)

Anarchy99 said:
You may not be due for tails on the 10th flip, but you are due for 9 more tails at some point than heads.

Using similar logic, Foles would be expected to perform worse this game than last game as his performance was very close to having a perfect passer rating. We know Foles is not a perfect QB in term's of passer rating, so he is far more likely to revert to normal than he is to do as well or greater this game.

Getting back to the turnover situation, NE averaged 1.3 forced turnovers per game through 14 games. There are two ways to look at it. The first is that they that is there baseline average that they will maintain (in reality, this year was a down year for forcing turnovers for the Pats). If we set the standard that that's what NE will continue to average, then they are "due" to make up 5 turnovers at some point to keep that average. The other way to look at it is that their average should be re-calibrated to a lower level due to having 0 turnovers in 4 games . . . which would be an average of 1 turnover forced per game.

Given that in the prior 6 season NE forced 29, 23, 31, 33, 42, and 36 turnovers (roughly an average of 2 per game) and they have averaged less than that this year, it is not unreasonable to expect them to have a run of games where they force more turnovers. If the longer data set indicates NE averages 2 turnovers forced a game, then they at some point will make up the 8 turnovers they missed in the past 4 games.

As you said, it may not be this particular game, but the expectation is that they will return at some point to their established baseline level and make up the difference. Certainly there is no guarantee that that would happen, but IMO that would be a logical conclusion to make.
Click to expand...


Yeah i agree.  This is of course is a one game scenario so I thought my coin flip analogy was relevant.  Also, I was only referring to ints (not total turnovers).  I do expect New England to force at least one turnover in this game.  

 
Snotbubbles said:
Against common opponents:

Alex Smith vs Philly (vs. NE): 113.8 (148.6)

Cam Newton vs. Philly: 48.5 (130.8)

Phillip Rivers vs. Philly: 105.9 (76.0)

Derek Carr vs. Philly: 48.1 (68.2)

Matt Ryan vs. Philly: 86.6 (99.7)
Click to expand...
Except my point was that in the groupings I mentioned, the PHI defense did not do anywhere near as well in the 10+ year starting QB group compared to the younger starting QB group. Brady is at the top of the list of established veterans. Foles would fall in the younger / less experienced group . . . which NE did much better (relatively speaking) compared to when they faced the long term franchise QB guys. When the Eagles gave up in the mid-20's or more for points, it was usually against the long term QB's.

 
Amused to Death said:
:shrug:  Me either, it was Anarchy that brought it up.
Click to expand...
I brought it up because the timeline in this situation seems a little off to me. NE announced that Gronk returned to practice and has been practicing in pads. I always thought you couldn't return to team practice until you were phased out of the concussion protocol (although admittedly I haven't followed the rules that closely). That's why I mentioned that maybe Gronk had already been green lighted and the Pats may not have disclosed that he was fully reinstated. I have no idea what the official rules are and when a team has to disclose that a player has completed all phases of the concussion protocol. Multiple places are reporting that Gronk is going to play, yet I have not seen that an independent doctor has signed off on him yet. Like I said, it is a little odd that they are so confident he will play but have not offered up when he will be reinstated.

 
JuniorNB said:
Lol. That's what I was thinking. They're wasting their time with the Gronk drama. Sorry Bill 
Click to expand...
Not saying PHI isn't preparing for Gronk to play...

... but you know it's in the back of the PHI coaches and players minds ... maybe Gronk doesn't play.

Wouldn't it be good if Gronk can't play.

I hope Gronk is out.

Wouldn't it be much easier without Gronk to worry about.

BB will let PHI have those thoughts. Let them have them all last week and all of this week to prey he can't go. Then BLAMMO ... Gronk clears protocol on Saturday.

PHI coaches and players hopes are crushed. BB / NE already winning the psychological battle before the game even starts.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Faust said:
Barnwell's Super Bowl LII preview: Do Wentz-less Eagles have a shot?
Click to expand...
Nice takeaway:

SPLIT PRE-VIKINGS VS. VIKINGS
Versus blitz 87.9 142.3
Versus pressure 39.3 128.3
Third down 71.3 158.3
15+ yd throws 23.8 141.4



There are seven instances since 2001 of a quarterback posting a passer rating better than Foles' 141.4 in a playoff win. (Chad Pennington, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Peyton Manning (2x), and Kurt Warner (2x). Those passers went 3-4 the following week with an average passer rating of 82.6.

The 10 quarterbacks just behind Foles posted an average passer rating of 137.1 in their wins and then went 4-6 the following week while generating an average passer rating of just 61.9. Not a single player topped a passer rating of 100!

 
Anarchy99 said:
Except my point was that in the groupings I mentioned, the PHI defense did not do anywhere near as well in the 10+ year starting QB group compared to the younger starting QB group. Brady is at the top of the list of established veterans. Foles would fall in the younger / less experienced group . . . which NE did much better (relatively speaking) compared to when they faced the long term franchise QB guys. When the Eagles gave up in the mid-20's or more for points, it was usually against the long term QB's.
Click to expand...
But NE gave up:

33 to Houston (Watson)

33 to Carolina (Newton)

27 to Miami (Cutler)

Those aren't a who's who of great QBs.

The Eagles gave up 30+ once all year long to LA Rams, the #1 offense in the league.  I fully expect NE to score between 20-24 points.  I expect the Eagles to get 28-35.

 
Highly unlikely Foles plays at the level he did vs. the Vikings.  However, people still seem to forget he had no training camp.  No preseason games.  No work with the 1's until he came off the bench to beat the Rams.  So yes, his earlier games SHOULD be worse than his last couple.  Those games against the Raiders and Cowboys (I'll skip the Giants because they didn't have an NFL caliber defense) were his preseason.

 
Snotbubbles said:
The Eagles gave up 30+ once all year long to LA Rams, the #1 offense in the league.  I fully expect NE to score between 20-24 points. 
Click to expand...
Wat?   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:  

Points Scored: 
New England: 458
Los Angeles Rams: 355

Nobody's this wrong in every....single....post. Who's alias is this? No trolling in the Shark Pool :lol:  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Snotbubbles said:
But NE gave up:

33 to Houston (Watson)

33 to Carolina (Newton)

27 to Miami (Cutler)

Those aren't a who's who of great QBs.

The Eagles gave up 30+ once all year long to LA Rams, the #1 offense in the league.  I fully expect NE to score between 20-24 points.  I expect the Eagles to get 28-35.
Click to expand...
Other than the first month of the season when the NE defense was not on the same page, what leads you to believe that NE will allow 28-35 points? They gave up 20 or fewer points in 12 of their 14 games from October on. They did not allow 28 points to anyone past September. They led the league in fewest points allowed from Week 5 on. NE has only allowed 30+ points once in their past 18 post season games (since the 2009 season).

 
[icon] said:
Wat?   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:  

Points Scored: 
New England: 458
Los Angeles Rams: 355

Nobody's this wrong in every....single....post. Who's alias is this? No trolling in the Shark Pool :lol:  
Click to expand...
You were looking at the LA Chargers.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Other than the first month of the season when the NE defense was not on the same page, what leads you to believe that NE will allow 28-35 points? They gave up 20 or fewer points in 12 of their 14 games from October on. They did not allow 28 points to anyone past September. They led the league in fewest points allowed from Week 5 on. NE has only allowed 30+ points once in their past 18 post season games (since the 2009 season).
Click to expand...
Against what might be some of the worst scoring offenses in the league:

Miami x2 (28th)

Denver (27th)

New York x2 (24th)

Buffalo x2 (22nd)

Tampa (18th)

So 7 of those 12 games came against the bottom 1/3 of teams in scoring offense.  And 8 of the 12 came against the bottom 1/2.  Atlanta (15th) and Chargers (13th) were middle of the road offenses.  Not really impressed.  Pittsburgh (8th) was the only team in the top 1/3 of scoring offenses that NE faced.

 
Snotbubbles said:
Against what might be some of the worst scoring offenses in the league:

Miami x2 (28th)

Denver (27th)

New York x2 (24th)

Buffalo x2 (22nd)

Tampa (18th)

So 7 of those 12 games came against the bottom 1/3 of teams in scoring offense.  And 8 of the 12 came against the bottom 1/2.  Atlanta (15th) and Chargers (13th) were middle of the road offenses.  Not really impressed.  Pittsburgh (8th) was the only team in the top 1/3 of scoring offenses that NE faced.
Click to expand...
They played NOS, JAX, KCC, and PIT who all were in the Top 8 in scoring. They also played LAC, ATL, and CAR who were in the Top 15 in scoring.

 
Anarchy99 said:
They played NOS, JAX, KCC, and PIT who all were in the Top 8 in scoring. They also played LAC, ATL, and CAR who were in the Top 15 in scoring.
Click to expand...
It cuts both ways. The Eagles had games against SFO, OAK, ARI, DEN, CHI, and NYG (x2) . . . all ranked 20th or worse in scoring. They gave up 29 and 24 points to the 31st ranked Giants.

 
Anarchy99 said:
They played NOS, JAX, KCC, and PIT who all were in the Top 8 in scoring. They also played LAC, ATL, and CAR who were in the Top 15 in scoring.
Click to expand...
You said other than the 1st month.  I'm more than happy to discuss the 42 KC dropped on NE.  But it seems like stat boys in this thread want to remove bad games.

 
unckeyherb said:
Not really, man.  I'm nowhere near as nervous as I was in '04-'05 when we last faced you guys.  I'm as calm as a cucumber.  Its actually freaking me out and I've had this convo with a lot of my friends and co-workers.  Like, no one is nervous.  No one has the ubiquitous agita that usually follows fans of this team.  No one is creating excuses that they can use later to assuage the anguish of another painful loss.  The eagles are going to win.  They are going to win by 10+.  I have literally no fear that this is not the case.  Its a strange feeling.  But its f ucking awesome.  And its going to be f ucking awesomer Monday morning.
Click to expand...
Does "awesome Monday morning" mean going back to being nervous wrecks and filled with disappointment?

:P

 
Snotbubbles said:
You said other than the 1st month.  I'm more than happy to discuss the 42 KC dropped on NE.  But it seems like stat boys in this thread want to remove bad games.
Click to expand...
If Eli was good for 800/6 in his two games against the Eagles (one without any of their best WRs), why would Brady and NE do appreciably worse?

 
Damn it. Gronks playing now  Back to the drawing board now for the Peterson. He has to start all over again with the game plan. That damn Bill Belichick. So sneaky with his injuries.

 
Anyone else find it very weird that Pederson has asked Favre to speak to the team?

I mean, is Favre going to explain to Foles how he should feel when he throws a pick-6 to lose the game or something? 

Seriously...this is bugging the **** outta me.  Its like asking Bill Buckner to talk to the Patriots about how not to make plays when they matter most.

 
Bad_Mo said:
Anyone else find it very weird that Pederson has asked Favre to speak to the team?

I mean, is Favre going to explain to Foles how he should feel when he throws a pick-6 to lose the game or something? 

Seriously...this is bugging the **** outta me.  Its like asking Bill Buckner to talk to the Patriots about how not to make plays when they matter most.
Click to expand...
Most people think favre was a pretty decent qb

 
Bad_Mo said:
Anyone else find it very weird that Pederson has asked Favre to speak to the team?

I mean, is Favre going to explain to Foles how he should feel when he throws a pick-6 to lose the game or something? 

Seriously...this is bugging the **** outta me.  Its like asking Bill Buckner to talk to the Patriots about how not to make plays when they matter most.
Click to expand...
I've heard some callers on talk radio bring it up.  I think Pederson and Favre are still friends from their GB days.  He also had Kobe Bryant talk to the team when they were in LA.

 
Honestly lads I'm getting a headache scrolling through this wanking off number crunching. Numbers can't quantify the intangibles and I can't remember a game that had so much of that. The intangible and mystique of the greatest coach/QB combo ever (cheaters or not) versus a team that looks like it's meant to win by biblical adversity and divine intervention. It seems a waste of time to predict this through numbers. I mean no offense.

 
Bad_Mo said:
Anyone else find it very weird that Pederson has asked Favre to speak to the team?

I mean, is Favre going to explain to Foles how he should feel when he throws a pick-6 to lose the game or something? 

Seriously...this is bugging the **** outta me.  Its like asking Bill Buckner to talk to the Patriots about how not to make plays when they matter most.
Click to expand...
Favre beat the Patriots in Super Bowl 31. 

Granted, it was pre-Brady/Bill... but I get the point here. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
You may not be due for tails on the 10th flip, but you are due for 9 more tails at some point than heads.

Using similar logic, Foles would be expected to perform worse this game than last game as his performance was very close to having a perfect passer rating. We know Foles is not a perfect QB in term's of passer rating, so he is far more likely to revert to normal than he is to do as well or greater this game.

Getting back to the turnover situation, NE averaged 1.3 forced turnovers per game through 14 games. There are two ways to look at it. The first is that they that is there baseline average that they will maintain (in reality, this year was a down year for forcing turnovers for the Pats). If we set the standard that that's what NE will continue to average, then they are "due" to make up 5 turnovers at some point to keep that average. The other way to look at it is that their average should be re-calibrated to a lower level due to having 0 turnovers in 4 games . . . which would be an average of 1 turnover forced per game.

Given that in the prior 6 season NE forced 29, 23, 31, 33, 42, and 36 turnovers (roughly an average of 2 per game) and they have averaged less than that this year, it is not unreasonable to expect them to have a run of games where they force more turnovers. If the longer data set indicates NE averages 2 turnovers forced a game, then they at some point will make up the 8 turnovers they missed in the past 4 games.

As you said, it may not be this particular game, but the expectation is that they will return at some point to their established baseline level and make up the difference. Certainly there is no guarantee that that would happen, but IMO that would be a logical conclusion to make.
Click to expand...
You're usually very good with the math/stats, so maybe you are trolling here, but the bolded parts are not actually correct, assuming a truly random event like a flip of a fair coin.  

Given the coin is fair, a long-term expectation is that it will approach 50-50, but in relative senses only.  At 10-0, the most likely outcome for the next 100 flips is still 50/50, not something like 45/55 to "make up the difference,"  The regression comes from the fact that, after those next 100 after the 10-streak, you are sitting at 60/50 which is much closer to 50% heads than you were at 10/0.

Of course, there's also the flaw all statisticians are making in assuming that QB performance is a series of independent random outcomes,  It's not a bad starting place, but statistics are always designed to tell you longterm trends rather than predict the next outcome or two...

 
I am so happy that Gronk is playing. I'm happy that Brady had his stitches removed and healing well. 

I wouldn't want this Eagles Superbowl victory to come against a wounded Patriots team. 

I believe to the very fabric of my bones that this Eagles team is the best we have ever had in franchise history.

It's going to be one hell of ride on Sunday, but we all will see a new undisputed World Champion.

Enjoy Eagles fans. I don't even want this season to end. I can't believe we only have one more game remaining.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
jon007 said:
I am so happy that Gronk is playing. I'm happy that Brady had his stitches removed and healing well. 

I wouldn't want this Eagles Superbowl victory to come against a wounded Patriots team. 

I believe to the very fabric of my bones that this Eagles team is the best we have ever had in franchise history.

It's going to be one hell of ride on Sunday, but we all will see a new undisputed World Champion.

Enjoy Eagles fans. I don't even want this season to end. I can't believe we only have one more game remaining.
Click to expand...
:thumbup:  no excuses on our end. Just make sure nobody mentions Wentz on Monday if you guys lose. ;)  

 
Arodin said:
You're usually very good with the math/stats, so maybe you are trolling here, but the bolded parts are not actually correct, assuming a truly random event like a flip of a fair coin.  

Given the coin is fair, a long-term expectation is that it will approach 50-50, but in relative senses only.  At 10-0, the most likely outcome for the next 100 flips is still 50/50, not something like 45/55 to "make up the difference,"  The regression comes from the fact that, after those next 100 after the 10-streak, you are sitting at 60/50 which is much closer to 50% heads than you were at 10/0.

Of course, there's also the flaw all statisticians are making in assuming that QB performance is a series of independent random outcomes,  It's not a bad starting place, but statistics are always designed to tell you longterm trends rather than predict the next outcome or two...
Click to expand...
:goodposting:      I was a little surprised that post came from him but didn’t want to dwell on it too much.  Figured he was being a little facetious.

 
Anarchy99 said:
One other thing I noticed looking at the Eagles box scores. They beat up and abused young QBs. But the established, multi-year starters at QB?

Alex Smith 251-1-0 with a 113.8 rating       Eagles' loss
Eli Manning 366-3-2 with a 100.1 rating     Eagles' win
Philip Rivers 347-2-0 with a 105.9 rating    Eagles' win
Carson Palmer 291-1-0 with a 90.2 rating  Eagles' win
Russell Wilson 227-3-0 with a 118.6 rating Eagles' loss
Eli Manning 434-3-1 with a 98.1 rating        Eagles' win
Matt Ryan 210-1-0 with an 86.6 rating        Eagles' win



 
Click to expand...
Cam Newton 239-1-3 with a 58.1 rating     Eagles' win

The only stat that matters is the final score

 
unckeyherb said:
Not really, man.  I'm nowhere near as nervous as I was in '04-'05 when we last faced you guys.  I'm as calm as a cucumber.  Its actually freaking me out and I've had this convo with a lot of my friends and co-workers.  Like, no one is nervous.  No one has the ubiquitous agita that usually follows fans of this team.  No one is creating excuses that they can use later to assuage the anguish of another painful loss.  The eagles are going to win.  They are going to win by 10+.  I have literally no fear that this is not the case.  Its a strange feeling.  But its f ucking awesome.  And its going to be f ucking awesomer Monday morning.
Click to expand...
i really think the difference is the context. that '04-'05 was surrounded by multiple NFCCG losses, end was closer. 

 
Kwai Chang Caine said:
Honestly lads I'm getting a headache scrolling through this wanking off number crunching. Numbers can't quantify the intangibles and I can't remember a game that had so much of that. The intangible and mystique of the greatest coach/QB combo ever (cheaters or not) versus a team that looks like it's meant to win by biblical adversity and divine intervention. It seems a waste of time to predict this through numbers. I mean no offense.
Click to expand...
Agree.  Screw the stats.  I know what my eyes are telling me.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

The Noid
2025 Philadelphia Eagles - Bleak Friday
76 77 78
Replies
4K
Views
481K
rschroeder1
R
Yogibear
The Road to Super Bowl LX
Replies
0
Views
432
Yogibear
Yogibear
Terpman22
  • Locked
The Philadelphia Eagles are the most popular team on FBGs - why?
3 4 5
Replies
201
Views
6K
Joe Bryant
Joe Bryant

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top