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***Official Super Bowl LII Thread*** - Eagles vs Patriots (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter East Coast Bias
- Start date
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Crazy that Nick Foles is going to be a Super Bowl winning QB...
I know a guy collecting all the Super Bowl champion QB signatures on full size helmets. Dilfer was next to impossible to find, but he was able to get it. Can't imagine Nick Foles will be much easier, on an Eagles helmet at that!
I know a guy collecting all the Super Bowl champion QB signatures on full size helmets. Dilfer was next to impossible to find, but he was able to get it. Can't imagine Nick Foles will be much easier, on an Eagles helmet at that!
Bossman
Footballguy
Ah HA ... there's where your wrong!
You missed one major factor in all of your research.
PHI's played AWAY in 3 out of 6 common opponent games.
NE played AWAY 1 out of 6 vs common opponents (1 neutral site)
This obviously tips the scale in PHI favor.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
People who gamble know the #1 rule is leave emotion at the door. So your theory is incorrect. Eagles are a great pick because everyone expects the Patriots to win, and the Eagles are scary good, even with Foles at QB.
I'm putting money on this as well, and the last thing I am going to do is let emotion run the show. It's not like I have money I'm just dying to throw out the window.
babydemon90
Footballguy
They're also getting the points. They aren't betting the Eagles will win - they're betting the Pat's won't win by more then 5.
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Insoxicated
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Work buddy asked me this morning “what’s today, Wednesday?”. I smacked him pretty good.
Not really a soap opera. The guy was concussed. Reports are that he's good to go now that he's out of the protocol. If PHI is developing a game plan assuming Gronk won't be playing...that's stupid.
As far as Brady...he said that he was a no go two days right before the game. Guy likes to practice and usually only takes certain maintenance days off. Media needs stories. Pats aren't doing anything they haven't done for the last 18 years as far as reporting injuries.
Boston
Footballguy
That is bull...they are tight-lipped and let the media speculate but they don't get involved with this type of nonsense...
You lost me at...NE is doomed on defense. You make it sound like PHI is the best offense ever to step on the field and lowly NE and their scrub defense will get crushed.
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Insoxicated
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Insoxicated
OFFENSIVE RANKINGS:
DVOA: Defense-adjusted Value Over Average of Offense:
NE: 27.3% (2nd in NFL)
PHI: 10.0% (20th in NFL)
WEIGHTED DVOA OFFENSE: (Gradually weights later season more than earlier in the season):
NE: 28.1% (1st in NFL)
PHI: 7.1% (9th in NFL)
Surprising that NE is 4x more efficient (over average) with only an 8 slot gap)
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Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Thunderlips
Footballguy
I don't think for a sec PHI is planning to play this game under the idea that Gronk isn't playing.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
It's hyperbole, pointing out how ridiculous looking at "balance" on defense was/is using a metric like passer rating. Oakland had a much more balanced defense than Philly. Would you want their 102.6 passer rating against RB/TE and 105.5 against WR? Conversely, the LA Rams were one of the most unbalanced defenses. But wouldn't you want their 92.4 rating against RB/TE and 72.4 against WR. Philly was so good against WRs (4th in the league) that it skews their "balance" numbers. Conversely, NE was just average at both.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
Yeah, I chuckled a bit at the thought of the Eagles being caught off-guard when its announced Gronk's playing.
"That would be a genius move by Bill! They'll never see it coming!!!11!"
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Insoxicated
I don't think you get it. If you'd quit being so defensive you'd realize the article wasn't trying to say Philly's defense is bad. They're saying they have a weakness, and that weakness happens to be New England's strength, offensively. Not sure why you're so butthurt about the discrepancy, and there IS a discrepancy, being pointed out.
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Insoxicated
Great post in the AFCCG thread, regarding the faulty perception that New England's low penalty totals are a result of favoritism... rather than league-best practice of studying each ref/crew's tendencies toward what they consider to be a penalty:
https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/nfl/2018/2/1/16958718/super-bowl-new-england-patriots-bill-belichick-rules-penalties-study?__twitter_impression=true
https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/nfl/2018/2/1/16958718/super-bowl-new-england-patriots-bill-belichick-rules-penalties-study?__twitter_impression=true
It's just the opposite. Team is young. Our best player isn't even playing. The team and the fans couldn't possibly be less nervous. Whatever happens, happens. If we win our first ring with 4 pro bowlers out and with our backup quarterback, then we'll all be unbelievably ecstatic. If we lose, oh well. What a ####### run. Best is yet to come.
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Lol. That's what I was thinking. They're wasting their time with the Gronk drama. Sorry Bill
Insein
Footballguy
Your team is definitely better with Wentz running things.
However, the NFL is pretty bizarre. It seems (and I haven't really delved into it) that those who make the SB usually have a set back the next year which may, or may not, last for a few years. All teams who make the SB other than NE, that is. The constants on the field (Brady) and the sidelines (Belichick) for NE are the biggest reasons why there hasn't been a prolonged rebuild.
With Wentz, and some other key pro bowl level guys, the Eagles future does look bright though.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
And using those numbers, NE's entire pass defense is a weakness. I'm sorry, a balanced weakness.
dhockster
Footballguy
Foles has thrown 4 pick 6's in his career. 1 in his very first game, 1 in 2014, and 2 in his awful year under the QB killer Jeff Fisher. So there really is no reverting to when it comes to pick 6's. Also his interception % rate of 2.1% in the regular season is tied for 7th lowest all time. In 3 playoff games he has yet to throw an interception.
That doesn't mean he won't throw any interceptions against the Patriots. It just means historically he does not throw many interceptions.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Not really, man. I'm nowhere near as nervous as I was in '04-'05 when we last faced you guys. I'm as calm as a cucumber. Its actually freaking me out and I've had this convo with a lot of my friends and co-workers. Like, no one is nervous. No one has the ubiquitous agita that usually follows fans of this team. No one is creating excuses that they can use later to assuage the anguish of another painful loss. The eagles are going to win. They are going to win by 10+. I have literally no fear that this is not the case. Its a strange feeling. But its f ucking awesome. And its going to be f ucking awesomer Monday morning.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
I was just curious how often New England loses by 10+. In the past 4 years, it's happened 5 times. Twice against Miami (
), twice against KC (not sure if Pederson was there the first time it happened) and once against Buffalo. It's a very rare feat but anything is possible.
Bossman
Footballguy
Ah, yes ... so you're saying his is "over-due".
That one that the ATL DB jumped up (for no reason) to catch ... and kicked to an Eagle. That should have been his one INT for the playoffs.
Now we'll just have to expect water to seek it's own level Sunday. Maybe 2 to make up for lost time.
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fred_1_15301
Footballguy
The Patriots last interception was the final play of the Steelers game. The Eagles have been near the best in the league at not throwing interceptions. Foles historically has a low int %. What makes you think New England is going to get an interception or 2 (other than they're due)? If the Patriots get a turnover, I think it will be more likely to come on a sack/fumble or some special teams play.
Bossman
Footballguy
Down by 14 points, Foles will need to try to "force a few in there".The Patriots last interception was the final play of the Steelers game. The Eagles have been near the best in the league at not throwing interceptions. Foles historically has a low int %. What makes you think New England is going to get an interception or 2 (other than they're due)? If the Patriots get a turnover, I think it will be more likely to come on a sack/fumble or some special teams play.
Sorry, completely trollin'
This was started by me saying "I hope Foles doesn't make mud in his boxer-briefs" Sunday ... I'd rather not watch a blowout.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
One other thing I noticed looking at the Eagles box scores. They beat up and abused young QBs. But the established, multi-year starters at QB?
Alex Smith 251-1-0 with a 113.8 rating
Eli Manning 366-3-2 with a 100.1 rating
Philip Rivers 347-2-0 with a 105.9 rating
Carson Palmer 291-1-0 with a 90.2 rating
Russell Wilson 227-3-0 with a 118.6 rating
Eli Manning 434-3-1 with a 98.1 rating
Matt Ryan 210-1-0 with an 86.6 rating
Looking at NE in games not started by seasoned veterans (they saw plenty of those this year in Brees, Big Ben, Ryan, Cutler, Rivers, Smith, etc.) and against younger QBs:
Deshaun Watson 301-2-2 with a 90.6 rating
Jameis Winston 334-1-0 with an 86.7 rating
Brock Osweiler 221-1-1 with a 72.9 rating
Derek Carr 237-1-1 with a 68.2 rating
Tyrod Taylor 65-0-1 with a 35.6 rating knocked out and replaced by
Nathan Peterman 50-0-0 with a 49.3 rating
Tyrod Taylor 281-0-0 with a 78.9 rating
Byrce Petty 232-0-0 with a 72.9 rating
Marcus Mariota 254-2-0 with a 98.3 rating
Blake Bortles 293-1-0 with a 98.5 rating
NE did not allow a younger QB a rating of 100 plus or more than 2 TD's. Granted, some of those QB's are not ground breakers and their teams are not the Eagles.
But the overall point remains that NE fared way better against guys that weren't 10 year vets and the Eagles defense was nowhere near as good against long term starting QBs.
Who knows if that will play out the same in the SB . . .
Alex Smith 251-1-0 with a 113.8 rating
Eli Manning 366-3-2 with a 100.1 rating
Philip Rivers 347-2-0 with a 105.9 rating
Carson Palmer 291-1-0 with a 90.2 rating
Russell Wilson 227-3-0 with a 118.6 rating
Eli Manning 434-3-1 with a 98.1 rating
Matt Ryan 210-1-0 with an 86.6 rating
Looking at NE in games not started by seasoned veterans (they saw plenty of those this year in Brees, Big Ben, Ryan, Cutler, Rivers, Smith, etc.) and against younger QBs:
Deshaun Watson 301-2-2 with a 90.6 rating
Jameis Winston 334-1-0 with an 86.7 rating
Brock Osweiler 221-1-1 with a 72.9 rating
Derek Carr 237-1-1 with a 68.2 rating
Tyrod Taylor 65-0-1 with a 35.6 rating knocked out and replaced by
Nathan Peterman 50-0-0 with a 49.3 rating
Tyrod Taylor 281-0-0 with a 78.9 rating
Byrce Petty 232-0-0 with a 72.9 rating
Marcus Mariota 254-2-0 with a 98.3 rating
Blake Bortles 293-1-0 with a 98.5 rating
NE did not allow a younger QB a rating of 100 plus or more than 2 TD's. Granted, some of those QB's are not ground breakers and their teams are not the Eagles.
But the overall point remains that NE fared way better against guys that weren't 10 year vets and the Eagles defense was nowhere near as good against long term starting QBs.
Who knows if that will play out the same in the SB . . .
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I touched upon this exact concept pages and pages ago. The Patriots are on their longest stretch of games without forcing a turnover (4 games). IIRC, they only had one stretch with 3 games without forcing a turnover since 2001. So yes, whatever mathematical term or layman's phrase you want to apply here (regression to the mean, law of averages, probability, they're due, etc.) should come into play.The Patriots last interception was the final play of the Steelers game. The Eagles have been near the best in the league at not throwing interceptions. Foles historically has a low int %. What makes you think New England is going to get an interception or 2 (other than they're due)? If the Patriots get a turnover, I think it will be more likely to come on a sack/fumble or some special teams play.
dhockster
Footballguy
Yes, we will just have to expect that, because that is what you want. Keep up the in-depth analysis.
Bossman
Footballguy
So law of averages says Pats will win the turnover battle +2 or +3.
Sorry PHI fans ... it's the law.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
You're better than this
If you flip a fair coin 9 times and hit 9 straight heads, it doesn't mean that you're "due" for a tail on the 10th flip. On the year, New England is averaging 0.67 ints per game. The Eagles are giving up 0.5 ints per game (In the games that Foles played it's ~ 0.44 ints per game). Statistically this doesn't appear to be favorable matchup for New England to get an int.
babydemon90
Footballguy
Yea, I fully expect Brady to be 90+ QB rating. The best hope for the Eagles is to get a lead, then be able to sustain long drives to keep the Pats offense on the sideline so they never have a shot to come back. A key stop or two in the 2nd half can make the difference.
babydemon90
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
You may not be due for tails on the 10th flip, but you are due for 9 more tails at some point than heads.You're better than this
Using similar logic, Foles would be expected to perform worse this game than last game as his performance was very close to having a perfect passer rating. We know Foles is not a perfect QB in term's of passer rating, so he is far more likely to revert to normal than he is to do as well or greater this game.
Getting back to the turnover situation, NE averaged 1.3 forced turnovers per game through 14 games. There are two ways to look at it. The first is that they that is there baseline average that they will maintain (in reality, this year was a down year for forcing turnovers for the Pats). If we set the standard that that's what NE will continue to average, then they are "due" to make up 5 turnovers at some point to keep that average. The other way to look at it is that their average should be re-calibrated to a lower level due to having 0 turnovers in 4 games . . . which would be an average of 1 turnover forced per game.
Given that in the prior 6 season NE forced 29, 23, 31, 33, 42, and 36 turnovers (roughly an average of 2 per game) and they have averaged less than that this year, it is not unreasonable to expect them to have a run of games where they force more turnovers. If the longer data set indicates NE averages 2 turnovers forced a game, then they at some point will make up the 8 turnovers they missed in the past 4 games.
As you said, it may not be this particular game, but the expectation is that they will return at some point to their established baseline level and make up the difference. Certainly there is no guarantee that that would happen, but IMO that would be a logical conclusion to make.
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Insoxicated
I don't understand your obsession with this as "drama".... what exactly are the patriots doing? Gronkowski is in a league-mandated concussion protocol... until the league clears him by an independent physician. He's at the stage where he can practice with the team (to verify no returning effects). Then he will be inspected by the league. Then cleared. Then will be a full participant in practice.
This literally has NOTHING to do with the Patriots... nor have they done ANYTHING other than to say they hope he'll be ready. You're not surprised by the Patriots not issuing detailed updates on a process they don't control, are you?
Please clarify specific actions behind this "drama" you're seeing through your emerald lenses? Can't tell if you actually just don't understand the process or if you're trolling. So bizarre.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
I forgot about Cam. He doesn't really fit either category. Technically speaking, Russell Wilson doesn't really fit either. I was shooting for a data set of 10+ years as a starter and under 4 years as a starter. Both Cam and Wilson are in that middle zone.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Against common opponents:
Alex Smith vs Philly (vs. NE): 113.8 (148.6)
Cam Newton vs. Philly: 48.5 (130.8)
Phillip Rivers vs. Philly: 105.9 (76.0)
Derek Carr vs. Philly: 48.1 (68.2)
Matt Ryan vs. Philly: 86.6 (99.7)
Amused to Death
Footballguy
It would not totally shock me if / when Gronk got out of the concussion protocol that the Patriots sat on the information to get in the heads of the Eagles that he might not play only to spring it on them at the last second. That would be something BB would do.I don't understand your obsession with this as "drama".... what exactly are the patriots doing? Gronkowski is in a league-mandated concussion protocol... until the league clears him by an independent physician. He's at the stage where he can practice with the team (to verify no returning effects). Then he will be inspected by the league. Then cleared. Then will be a full participant in practice.
This literally has NOTHING to do with the Patriots... nor have they done ANYTHING other than to say they hope he'll be ready. You're not surprised by the Patriots not issuing detailed updates on a process they don't control, are you?
Please clarify specific actions behind this "drama" you're seeing through your emerald lenses? Can't tell if you actually just don't understand the process or if you're trolling. So bizarre.
Pretty sure the Eagles are preparing for Grong to play. Not sure how it would get in their heads to withhold the info.
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Insoxicated
Except, the Pats can't (nor are they trying to) "sit on the info". I'm pretty sure his status / release from the protocol is publicly available information.
I'm still seeing zero evidence of any of this "Gronk Drama" that JuniorNB is seeing.
