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***OFFICIAL*** Washington Nationals ongoing thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JZilla
- Start date
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
1. That's not really how baseball works, my friend. It's not basketball or football, you don't just roll to an .833 win percentage if you're playing lesser teams. The Mets went just 11-8 against both teams during the regular season last year and were good enough to win the pennant.
2. The Marlins are a decent club this year as long as Stanton is healthy, so I'm not sure why you included them anyway. I bet they compete for the wild card if Stanton plays 140+ games.
3. Is this the new posty alias?
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I think my favorite part of the whole thing (and posty's not the only one to point it out) is that a large part of the reason the Braves are 0-7 is that they've played the Nationals 5 times and haven't beaten them yet. Maybe they're actually not that bad and they've just had the misfortune of running into a buzzsaw in the early season.
That said, the Braves do look pretty awful this year. However I think the Phils might be surprisingly non-disastrous, maybe 70-75 wins. I'll start getting unreasonably excited if we leave Philly 9-2 on Sunday afternoon. And I kinda like that Marlins team if they stay healthy. I'd put the top half of their lineup up against anyone in the NL.
No, the Braves are that bad this year. They should easily lose 95+ game this season.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I want to make sure everyone understands that I didn't enjoy Bryce Harper hitting a grand slam for his 100th career home run at all even though it came off Julio Teheran, because he plays for the Braves and they are terrible.
Probably shouldn't even count TBH.
Probably shouldn't even count TBH.
But, but, but:
http://www.cheatsheet.com/sports/mlb-winless-atlanta-braves-are-worse-than-you-think.html/?a=viewall
Can you overestimate a 0-9 team with absolutely no hope in sight? With this season’s Atlanta Braves, it’s more than possible. Despite an All-Star first baseman, emerging young talent, and a manager once considered the National League’s best, we thought they’d bumble their way to a few wins. Even this modest hope seems unfounded in the opening weeks of the season. The 2016 Braves club is worse than anyone imagined, coaching staff included.
Opponents have outscored Atlanta 55-24 through those nine games, giving the club the worst run differential (-31) in the game, and the ship is taking on water from all sides. Only the Mets and also-winless Twins have scored fewer runs than the Braves, though New York has only played eight games at press time. As a team, Atlanta is batting .196 with 3 HR and a hideous .560 OPS.
The early returns from the pitching staff are equally bad. Only the Colorado Rockies have a worse ERA (7.20) than Braves pitchers have posted (5.88), with the club’s train-wreck bullpen (7.01) doing the team the most harm. Julio Teheran, who took the ball on Opening Day, ended an April 14 bashing at the hands of Bryce Harper and the Nationals with a 6.35 ERA through three starts.
Freddie Freeman, a two-time All Star and MVP candidate two seasons ago, has not been the bright spot by any stretch of the imagination. At 2-25 (.080) with 2 RBI, Freeman has been a part of the problem. Manager Fredi Gonzalez actually dumped the star 1B on the bench for the series finale against Washington, making it an especially sad day in Bravesville. Indeed, Gonzalez has become another one of Atlanta’s issues.
Gonzalez has a case for resting Freeman in his free fall up against Stephen Strasburg. Other decisions are worthy of second guessing, beginning with the April 12 debacle against the Nats. Jhoulys Chacin had struck out eight and allowed just five baserunners through 6.0 IP (69 pitches) when Gonzalez yanked him for a pinch-hitter in the top of the seventh following a leadoff double.
The Braves skipper called on Jace Peterson — we’ll give you time to Google him now — to replace Chacin and the results were as bad as you would expect: a strikeout, no advance, and Atlanta didn’t score. In the bottom of the eighth, the Nationals scored two off the Braves ‘pen and it was chalked up as another loss. Instead of going with the hottest start he had to date and seeing what happened, Gonzalez pulled Chacin and watched helplessly as his offense wilted again.
Bad teams put pressure on everyone, including the manager, and Gonzalez is clearly rattled, as is Freeman. Luck isn’t going Atlanta’s way, either. Ender Inciarte, acquired from Arizona in the Shelby Miller trade, got shipped to the disabled list on April 10 following a hamstring strain.
For now, Gonzalez can only pencil in Adonis Garcia, Nick Markakis, and the error-prone Erick Aybar and hope for the best. The farm system looks years away from bearing fruit. Maybe the weekend in Miami will be just what the Braves need, but we can’t see a light at the end of the tunnel for Atlanta. This club makes Minnesota seem worth the price of admission.
http://www.cheatsheet.com/sports/mlb-winless-atlanta-braves-are-worse-than-you-think.html/?a=viewall
Can you overestimate a 0-9 team with absolutely no hope in sight? With this season’s Atlanta Braves, it’s more than possible. Despite an All-Star first baseman, emerging young talent, and a manager once considered the National League’s best, we thought they’d bumble their way to a few wins. Even this modest hope seems unfounded in the opening weeks of the season. The 2016 Braves club is worse than anyone imagined, coaching staff included.
Opponents have outscored Atlanta 55-24 through those nine games, giving the club the worst run differential (-31) in the game, and the ship is taking on water from all sides. Only the Mets and also-winless Twins have scored fewer runs than the Braves, though New York has only played eight games at press time. As a team, Atlanta is batting .196 with 3 HR and a hideous .560 OPS.
The early returns from the pitching staff are equally bad. Only the Colorado Rockies have a worse ERA (7.20) than Braves pitchers have posted (5.88), with the club’s train-wreck bullpen (7.01) doing the team the most harm. Julio Teheran, who took the ball on Opening Day, ended an April 14 bashing at the hands of Bryce Harper and the Nationals with a 6.35 ERA through three starts.
Freddie Freeman, a two-time All Star and MVP candidate two seasons ago, has not been the bright spot by any stretch of the imagination. At 2-25 (.080) with 2 RBI, Freeman has been a part of the problem. Manager Fredi Gonzalez actually dumped the star 1B on the bench for the series finale against Washington, making it an especially sad day in Bravesville. Indeed, Gonzalez has become another one of Atlanta’s issues.
Gonzalez has a case for resting Freeman in his free fall up against Stephen Strasburg. Other decisions are worthy of second guessing, beginning with the April 12 debacle against the Nats. Jhoulys Chacin had struck out eight and allowed just five baserunners through 6.0 IP (69 pitches) when Gonzalez yanked him for a pinch-hitter in the top of the seventh following a leadoff double.
The Braves skipper called on Jace Peterson — we’ll give you time to Google him now — to replace Chacin and the results were as bad as you would expect: a strikeout, no advance, and Atlanta didn’t score. In the bottom of the eighth, the Nationals scored two off the Braves ‘pen and it was chalked up as another loss. Instead of going with the hottest start he had to date and seeing what happened, Gonzalez pulled Chacin and watched helplessly as his offense wilted again.
Bad teams put pressure on everyone, including the manager, and Gonzalez is clearly rattled, as is Freeman. Luck isn’t going Atlanta’s way, either. Ender Inciarte, acquired from Arizona in the Shelby Miller trade, got shipped to the disabled list on April 10 following a hamstring strain.
For now, Gonzalez can only pencil in Adonis Garcia, Nick Markakis, and the error-prone Erick Aybar and hope for the best. The farm system looks years away from bearing fruit. Maybe the weekend in Miami will be just what the Braves need, but we can’t see a light at the end of the tunnel for Atlanta. This club makes Minnesota seem worth the price of admission.
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
The Braves are a really bad team. The Phillies are pretty bad too. The Nationals are 9-2 while playing some of the worst teams in baseball.
But on the flip side, they can only play the games that are on their schedule. They played them. And they won them. Going 9-2 even against bad teams is hard.
It will be good to see the Nats play some good teams. But it will be a while before that happens. It looks like the Nats don't play a decent team until go to St. Louis on April 29. Their schedule is going to look easy with 54 games against the Braves, Phillies, and Marlins.
But on the flip side, they can only play the games that are on their schedule. They played them. And they won them. Going 9-2 even against bad teams is hard.
It will be good to see the Nats play some good teams. But it will be a while before that happens. It looks like the Nats don't play a decent team until go to St. Louis on April 29. Their schedule is going to look easy with 54 games against the Braves, Phillies, and Marlins.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Four HR inning. Not bad
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Agree with this. Marlins are going to be ok IMO, but the Phils and Braves are really bad teams that should struggle to get close to 70 wins. I think it's a must to make the playoffs, as a lot of contracts are expiring in the next couple of years. Win now, buy a veteran or two, ride the very good farm system, and save up to offer Harper whatever he wants.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Here's a fun Bryce Harper note I just saw on twitter- his BABIP for 2016 is currently .235. So while all the caveats about small sample sizes apply when it comes to his power so far, his average and OBP may actually get better than this.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Trea Turner with a .960 OPS through 19 games at AAA and the Nats still running Espinosa out there every day. Turner's clock has already started, and we know what Espinosa is and is going to be. I really don't see any reason at all Turner is not playing every day in DC.
E-Z Glider
Footballguy
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
For purposes of player control the clock doesn't start and run once you appear in an MLB game- it runs any time you're on a major league roster during the season. So that stupid move of calling him up to ride the pine last year when the meltdown was already well underway means that they have to keep him in the minors that much longer if they want to retain that extra year of player control. That was when the mistake was made; they're paying the price for it now.
That said, if I ran the team I'd go ahead and call him up now anyway. The value of controlling Turner in the 2023 season is IMO signficantly outweighed by the cost of crapping away Strasburg's final season in DC and potentially one of Harper's final three seasons by running Espinosa out there every day. He's awful, and you can't even point to his defense this year to justify his role because that's been mediocre.
I'm not too worried yet- this offense will look a lot better once you swap Ramos back in for Lobaton, Turner for Espinosa and Revere for Taylor/Werth. Rendon should get much better- his peripheral stats suggest he's just getting unlucky since his batted ball profile is the same as its always been and his K/BB rates are actually better than normal. So that should make up for the inevitable Murphy correction. But the lack of depth looks like a HUGE problem considering what we've seen from guys like Lobaton, Espinosa, Robinson, Taylor and Drew so far.
E-Z Glider
Footballguy
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
He was up for 45 days last season. 172 days constitutes a full service year, so 172-45=127. That means if they want that extra year they can't call him up until there's less than 127 days left in the season. I'm too lazy to count back but this beat writer put the date at around June 1. If things continue along this path for Espi I suspect they'll call him up on the first day they possibly can, like the Cubs did with Bryant last year (assuming they don't come around to my view and sacrifice 2023 control so they don't end up sacrificing the 2016 season).
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dparker713
Footballguy
They are still 14 and 7. That's a 108 win pace.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Yeah but that's after six games with the Braves, six with the (suprisingly frisky) Phils, six with the Marlins and three with the Twins. Starting today they play seven against the Cardinals, six against the Mets, and a combined ten against Royals/Cubs/Tigers. If they're still seven games over .500 a month from now I'd be delighted.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I am no expert on the details of how these contracts work, but there is also Super 2 status if he plays so much his first year. So for many star players, they wait until mid or late May before bringing them up for good their first year. If the Nats do that, Turner's call up date could be delayed another 45 to 60 days.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Yup, the article I linked talks about that a bit. But I can't imagine they'd hold out for that unless 2016 Danny Espinosa suddenly turns into 2012 Danny Espinosa, which seems unlikely.
dparker713
Footballguy
Super Two is determined a couple of years down the line. For players with between 2 and 3 years of service in MLB, the top 22% by service time are eligible for arbitration.
Having a defensive player that does not hit on a team with 7 good hitters (and the pitcher) looks ok. Having a defensive player on a team with few hitters looks really bad.
Curently, Taylor, Den Decker, Werth, Danny, Lobaton, Drew, and Robinson are all hitting under 0.200. Heisey, Zimmerman, and Rendon are batting under 0.250. Murphy, Harper, and Ramos are the only position players batting over 0.250.
That is good enough for winning 2 out of 3 against some of the worst teams in baseball. It probably won't hold up against the better teams they play in May. They need a number of bats to heat up really soon.
Curently, Taylor, Den Decker, Werth, Danny, Lobaton, Drew, and Robinson are all hitting under 0.200. Heisey, Zimmerman, and Rendon are batting under 0.250. Murphy, Harper, and Ramos are the only position players batting over 0.250.
That is good enough for winning 2 out of 3 against some of the worst teams in baseball. It probably won't hold up against the better teams they play in May. They need a number of bats to heat up really soon.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Just saw this about pitching matchups on espn.com, didn't realize it before. This is exactly the kind of thing that seemed to always go against the Nats last year:
RUSF18
Footballguy
Thanks. I think in a few more months you may be begging for "adequate". It's entertaining at least.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
He's got a positive baserunning runs above average for his career according to fangraphs. Was a bit on the negative side last year, maybe he just had a few more brain farts than usual.
A more interesting development- he seems to have changed his approach at the plate a bit, seems a little more patient and is swinging a little harder when he does pull the trigger. He's not turning into Adam Dunn or something, but I'm betting his K, BB and HR numbers all end up higher than they've been in recent years. Only two dingers so far but he's had some bad luck, had two huge blasts get knocked down by the rain and wind yesterday.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I loved the Jim Leyland-inspired Thursday lineup yesterday. Espinosa batting second, no Rendon, no Murphy, no Taylor. :X
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Werth is the pits
Encyclopedia Brown
Footballguy
It's been a rough road-trip for Bryce.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Can't believe they're gonna move to 5-1 on this road trip if this early lead 6-0 holds, with four in Chicago coming up. I would have taken 4-6 if you'd offered it to me a week ago.
Werth still looks like he's a bit of a mess at the plate- looks like he has to cheat a bit. But Rendon and Zimmerman are coming around as expected, which is good news. Heisey looks good as a bench bat and Robinson is hopefully transitioning from horrible to mediocre. Once they get Turner up, move Espi to the bench/utility/defensive sub role and jettison Drew this will be a nice looking roster.
Werth still looks like he's a bit of a mess at the plate- looks like he has to cheat a bit. But Rendon and Zimmerman are coming around as expected, which is good news. Heisey looks good as a bench bat and Robinson is hopefully transitioning from horrible to mediocre. Once they get Turner up, move Espi to the bench/utility/defensive sub role and jettison Drew this will be a nice looking roster.
JZilla
Footballguy
Werth does this every season, looks COMPLETELY lost.. I think he just doesn't even bother to try to fake it when he's slumping. He may as well walk up there holding the bat by the barrel. I should go back and find every time I've cursed his name then taken it back a month or two later. One of these years he won't bounce back.. not getting any younger but he is getting richer by the day so he has that going for him which is nice
Swing 51
Footballguy
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
What's the scoop on Roark? Can he continue to be a quality fantasy starter? Other than that 15 k game, he hasn't had high strikeouts but he's been consistently good. Are these early starts just outliers and should I expect regression in the future?
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Swing 51 said:
1-3 sounds acceptable, and 2-2 would be a huge win in my book. Should've yanked Stras yesterday after the top of the 1st and saved the big guns for this epic series (not really but that would have been pretty cool).
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I'm a Roark skeptic but there's reason to think this might be somewhat sustainable. His K numbers are way up from 2015 when he was a reliever but he hated pitching in relief, his career numbers are closer to his current number. And while he'd due for a massive correction on his HR rate and to a lesser degree his BABIP, he might be able to compensate by bringing his BB numbers more in line with his career average (he's at 3.52/9 this year, career number is 2.04). In other words he's due to give up some dingers but hopefully they'll be solo ones.fred_1_15301 said:
He's also locked in to the rotation for the long haul because Lucas Giolito is strug-a-ling at AA Harrisburg so far, which is reassuring for him but incredibly disconcerting for us Nats fans.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Joe Ross is a hoss, great outing tonight. 
Don't worry too much about Giolito, the walks are a bit concerning but the scouting reports are saying the stuff is there and he's had some bad luck with batted balls in play. If he's ready to pitch in the majors, they'll make room for him. He's 21 though and they've slowly promoted him, there really isn't any rush.
Don't worry too much about Giolito, the walks are a bit concerning but the scouting reports are saying the stuff is there and he's had some bad luck with batted balls in play. If he's ready to pitch in the majors, they'll make room for him. He's 21 though and they've slowly promoted him, there really isn't any rush.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Nice catch Werth you POS.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I'm kinda down on Werth too, but a month in I think it's fairly clear who Revere should be replacing today and it ain't Werth. Not if this club plans to push it chips in this year, anyway. Taylor's been a pretty big disappointment at the plate but also hasn't been all that great in the field (last night included), which has been the bigger bummer.
Anyway, the whole team had been playing way over their heads defensively, they were due for a disaster like last night. Big one today, if they lose they're staring down the barrel of a four game sweep because the pitching matchups turn ugly.
