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***Official Week 13 NFL Wagering Thread*** (1 Viewer)

K

kroyrunner89

Footballguy
Week 13 Lines:

Jets -3 @ Bills 36.5

Broncos -4.5 @ Chiefs 38

Raiders +13.5 @ Steelers 37.5

Texans PK @ Jaguars 46.5

Titans +6.5 @ Colts 47

Eagles -5.5 @ Falcons 44

Lions +13 @ Bengals 42

Saints -9.5 @ Redskins 48

Bucs +6.5 @ Panthers 40

Rams +9 @ Bears 41

Chargers -13 @ Browns 43

49ers PK @ Seahawks 41.5

Vikings -4 @ Cardinals 48.5

Cowboys -2 @ Giants 45.5

Patriots -5 @ Dolphins 46.5

Ravens +3 @ Packers 43.5

Good luck this week everyone!

 
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BAL is actually +3 @ GB

I like:

San Diego -13 @ Cleveland - The Chargers out of their element (should be freezing), but they are playing very well on both sides of the ball right now. Cleveland has been held to 7 pts or less 7 times this year, and have now lost 2 more defensive starters.

New Orleans -9.5 @ Washington - 10 of 11 Saint wins have been by double-digits. Saints coming off of huge Monday Night win, but Redskins also coming off of 2 very tough divisional losses.

Tennessee +7 @ Indianapolis - You should be able to get +7. Titans playing great right now and riding 5 game win streak, and Colts have division sewn up.

Baltimore +3 @ Green Bay - The Ravens looked much better last week and may be ready for a little run.

New England -5 @ Miami - I like the Pats to bounce back over familiar foe. They have handled Miami with both Brown/Williams last 2 meetings by double-digits. Bellichek should be able to handle just Ricky.

 
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I like the Bills (getting 3) as home (kinda) dogs over the struggling offense of the Jets. If the Bills go up early, the Jets won't be able to catch up.

the Texans on the road to beat Jacksonville with the passing game. Jacksonville D only has 11 sacks for the year, Schaub should have a great day

the Eagles -5.5 over an Atlanta team without their QB and RB

and quality teams on the road: Vikings -4 over the Cards especially if Warner is out, Dallas -2 over a reeling Giants team and, the Pats -5 over Miami.

If there is such a thing, the Vikings -4 is the safest play on the board.

 
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Jets (-3), Bengals (-13), Broncos (-4.5), Eagles (-6), Panthers (-6.5), Steelers (-13.5), and the Chargers (-13). Best bets in bold.

 
Chase Stuart said:
Jets (-3), Bengals (-13), Broncos (-4.5), Eagles (-6), Panthers (-6.5), Steelers (-13.5), and the Chargers (-13). Best bets in bold.
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it would appear that you believe the Chargers are better than the 28th best fantasy D this weeki like your choices in general, but i would be surprised if all those big numbers got covered

 
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' said:
Chase Stuart said:
Jets (-3), Bengals (-13), Broncos (-4.5), Eagles (-6), Panthers (-6.5), Steelers (-13.5), and the Chargers (-13). Best bets in bold.
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it would appear that you believe the Chargers are better than the 28th best fantasy D this weeki like your choices in general, but i would be surprised if all those big numbers got covered
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I don't like that the Chargers are traveling east to a cold-weather stadium for a 4:00 game where it should be below freezing and maybe snowing by the time the game ends. But they're so much better than Cleveland that I'm willing to put up with those facotrs, and say they'll only win by 20 instead of 28 if this was a home game. Cleveland has been held to single digits in 7 of 11 games this year, while San Diego is averaging 28 PPG. And Cleveland's defense stinks, too.
 
wonder how the Carolina line will move, TB -6 right now, and Delhomme is out, rumors swirling about DW3 and JStew being banged up asw ell this week

 
Tat said:
wonder how the Carolina line will move, TB -6 right now, and Delhomme is out, rumors swirling about DW3 and JStew being banged up asw ell this week
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I think you mean TB+6Stewart practiced Thursday, Williams did notno rumors out there about Stewart being banged up (any more than normal), but Williams hurt his ankle in the last game (then returned to the game after the injury, but has not practiced this week yet)
 
I've decided on releasing two Thursday Night plays for the first time this season, but with good reason. I'm very confident in both of these plays, as long as the Jets show up these should win no problem. Here's what I'm thinking for tonight:

* New York Jets -3

* Jets/Bills UNDER 37

To begin, let's note that this game is in Canada and not Buffalo's true home stadium. The past two weeks, the Bills have looked like a different team as Fitzpatrick has thrown for 583 yards (291.5 y/gm). However, there are some factors that need to be taken into account. First of all, these games have been against the Jaguars and Dolphins, the 3rd and 9th worst pass defenses in the NFL. Secondly, this week the Bills find themselves against the Jets, the #1 ranked pass defense in the NFL. Over those two games, Terrell Owens has experienced a resurgence, as he has accounted for 293 yards receiving, over half of Fitzpatrick's total yardage. This week, he faces Revis, who we've all become familiar with as the best corner in the NFL. After shutting down Steve Smith last week (1 catch for 5 yards), Revis should have no problem with the slower Owens. Sure Owens has size, but so did Randy Moss and Andre Johnson, and Revis took care of them as well. Not to mention that in their first meeting Revis held him to just 13 yards receiving. When you also consider that Buffalo's rush offense is 19th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and that they're going against the 6th best rushing defense in the NFL, I just can't see how this offense will move the ball at all. Their best offense might be their defense, as they'll have to hope that Mark Sanchez turns the ball over multiple times as he did in their first meeting, which is always a possibility. I don't think that this will happen though, as the Jets will take advantage of the fact that the Bills have the 2nd worst rushing defense in the NFL, and keep the majority of their offense to the ground. I think the Jets will have some time consuming drives, while the Bills will simply not get many opportunities and struggle when they do. I'd be shocked if the Bills topped 13 points in this one, as the Jets might even flirt with shutting their offense out. I see the Jets winning comfortably, along the lines of 20-6.

Good luck to those of you who decide to make a wager tonight!

 
kroyrunner89 said:
I've decided on releasing two Thursday Night plays for the first time this season, but with good reason. I'm very confident in both of these plays, as long as the Jets show up these should win no problem. Here's what I'm thinking for tonight: * New York Jets -3 * Jets/Bills UNDER 37To begin, let's note that this game is in Canada and not Buffalo's true home stadium. The past two weeks, the Bills have looked like a different team as Fitzpatrick has thrown for 583 yards (291.5 y/gm). However, there are some factors that need to be taken into account. First of all, these games have been against the Jaguars and Dolphins, the 3rd and 9th worst pass defenses in the NFL. Secondly, this week the Bills find themselves against the Jets, the #1 ranked pass defense in the NFL. Over those two games, Terrell Owens has experienced a resurgence, as he has accounted for 293 yards receiving, over half of Fitzpatrick's total yardage. This week, he faces Revis, who we've all become familiar with as the best corner in the NFL. After shutting down Steve Smith last week (1 catch for 5 yards), Revis should have no problem with the slower Owens. Sure Owens has size, but so did Randy Moss and Andre Johnson, and Revis took care of them as well. Not to mention that in their first meeting Revis held him to just 13 yards receiving. When you also consider that Buffalo's rush offense is 19th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and that they're going against the 6th best rushing defense in the NFL, I just can't see how this offense will move the ball at all. Their best offense might be their defense, as they'll have to hope that Mark Sanchez turns the ball over multiple times as he did in their first meeting, which is always a possibility. I don't think that this will happen though, as the Jets will take advantage of the fact that the Bills have the 2nd worst rushing defense in the NFL, and keep the majority of their offense to the ground. I think the Jets will have some time consuming drives, while the Bills will simply not get many opportunities and struggle when they do. I'd be shocked if the Bills topped 13 points in this one, as the Jets might even flirt with shutting their offense out. I see the Jets winning comfortably, along the lines of 20-6.Good luck to those of you who decide to make a wager tonight!
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This is pretty much how I see it. The Jets rushed for over 300 yards last time they played. The only reason that game was even close was that Sanchez had one of the worst games a QB has had in NFL history. I'll assume that won't happen again, and even if he's just regular old bad, the Jets will still run over the Bills and shut down the Bills offense.
 
(unwelcomed)GUEST said:
I like the Bills (getting 3) as home (kinda) dogs over the struggling offense of the Jets. If the Bills go up early, the Jets won't be able to catch up.

the Texans on the road to beat Jacksonville with the passing game. Jacksonville D only has 11 sacks for the year, Schaub should have a great day

the Eagles -5.5 over an Atlanta team without their QB and RB

and quality teams on the road: Vikings -4 over the Cards especially if Warner is out, Dallas -2 over a reeling Giants team and, the Pats -5 over Miami.

If there is such a thing, the Vikings -4 is the safest play on the board.
Click to expand...
Chase Stuart said:
Jets (-3), Bengals (-13), Broncos (-4.5), Eagles (-6), Panthers (-6.5), Steelers (-13.5), and the Chargers (-13). Best bets in bold.
Click to expand...
You two are gonna get smoked this weekend, with all that road chalk.Buyer beware.

 
kroyrunner89 said:
I've decided on releasing two Thursday Night plays for the first time this season, but with good reason. I'm very confident in both of these plays, as long as the Jets show up these should win no problem. Here's what I'm thinking for tonight: * New York Jets -3 * Jets/Bills UNDER 37To begin, let's note that this game is in Canada and not Buffalo's true home stadium. The past two weeks, the Bills have looked like a different team as Fitzpatrick has thrown for 583 yards (291.5 y/gm). However, there are some factors that need to be taken into account. First of all, these games have been against the Jaguars and Dolphins, the 3rd and 9th worst pass defenses in the NFL. Secondly, this week the Bills find themselves against the Jets, the #1 ranked pass defense in the NFL. Over those two games, Terrell Owens has experienced a resurgence, as he has accounted for 293 yards receiving, over half of Fitzpatrick's total yardage. This week, he faces Revis, who we've all become familiar with as the best corner in the NFL. After shutting down Steve Smith last week (1 catch for 5 yards), Revis should have no problem with the slower Owens. Sure Owens has size, but so did Randy Moss and Andre Johnson, and Revis took care of them as well. Not to mention that in their first meeting Revis held him to just 13 yards receiving. When you also consider that Buffalo's rush offense is 19th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and that they're going against the 6th best rushing defense in the NFL, I just can't see how this offense will move the ball at all. Their best offense might be their defense, as they'll have to hope that Mark Sanchez turns the ball over multiple times as he did in their first meeting, which is always a possibility. I don't think that this will happen though, as the Jets will take advantage of the fact that the Bills have the 2nd worst rushing defense in the NFL, and keep the majority of their offense to the ground. I think the Jets will have some time consuming drives, while the Bills will simply not get many opportunities and struggle when they do. I'd be shocked if the Bills topped 13 points in this one, as the Jets might even flirt with shutting their offense out. I see the Jets winning comfortably, along the lines of 20-6.Good luck to those of you who decide to make a wager tonight!
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I'm not a fan of this one, but the trend is strong for the Under - 5-0 on Thursdays this year.GL.
 
Jeff Pasquino said:
kroyrunner89 said:
I've decided on releasing two Thursday Night plays for the first time this season, but with good reason. I'm very confident in both of these plays, as long as the Jets show up these should win no problem. Here's what I'm thinking for tonight: * New York Jets -3 * Jets/Bills UNDER 37To begin, let's note that this game is in Canada and not Buffalo's true home stadium. The past two weeks, the Bills have looked like a different team as Fitzpatrick has thrown for 583 yards (291.5 y/gm). However, there are some factors that need to be taken into account. First of all, these games have been against the Jaguars and Dolphins, the 3rd and 9th worst pass defenses in the NFL. Secondly, this week the Bills find themselves against the Jets, the #1 ranked pass defense in the NFL. Over those two games, Terrell Owens has experienced a resurgence, as he has accounted for 293 yards receiving, over half of Fitzpatrick's total yardage. This week, he faces Revis, who we've all become familiar with as the best corner in the NFL. After shutting down Steve Smith last week (1 catch for 5 yards), Revis should have no problem with the slower Owens. Sure Owens has size, but so did Randy Moss and Andre Johnson, and Revis took care of them as well. Not to mention that in their first meeting Revis held him to just 13 yards receiving. When you also consider that Buffalo's rush offense is 19th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and that they're going against the 6th best rushing defense in the NFL, I just can't see how this offense will move the ball at all. Their best offense might be their defense, as they'll have to hope that Mark Sanchez turns the ball over multiple times as he did in their first meeting, which is always a possibility. I don't think that this will happen though, as the Jets will take advantage of the fact that the Bills have the 2nd worst rushing defense in the NFL, and keep the majority of their offense to the ground. I think the Jets will have some time consuming drives, while the Bills will simply not get many opportunities and struggle when they do. I'd be shocked if the Bills topped 13 points in this one, as the Jets might even flirt with shutting their offense out. I see the Jets winning comfortably, along the lines of 20-6.Good luck to those of you who decide to make a wager tonight!
Click to expand...
I'm not a fan of this one, but the trend is strong for the Under - 5-0 on Thursdays this year.GL.
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Yeah, i took the under and Jets money line, but already having second thoughts. I never like betting on a crappiest team contest.
 
I commonly wager on 3-4-maybe5 games per month. Let's see NYJ score 21+ tonight.

12031337-1 12/3/2009 6:08 PM Team Total 110.00 100.00 Football - 301 New York Jets team total over 20 -110 for Game

12031670-1 12/3/2009 6:27 PM Team Total 60.00 54.55 Football - 301 New York Jets team total over 20 -110 for Game

 
kroyrunner89 said:
Jeff Pasquino said:
I'm not a fan of this one, but the trend is strong for the Under - 5-0 on Thursdays this year.GL.
Click to expand...
Damn well the under isn't looking too good at halftime, but there's still hope I guess. Give me a couple more quarters like the first one.
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Done. Good call here.
 
I know this is mostly NFL, but I feel a great opportunity is the Cincinnati-Pitt game Saturday. Take the under at 58. The field in PA is a mess, and I just see this as a 24-20 ballgame, favor of UC. It'll be cold, with flurries, just good old fashioned December football

Apologies if not welcomed in the NFL thread :goodposting:

 
domvin said:
I know this is mostly NFL, but I feel a great opportunity is the Cincinnati-Pitt game Saturday. Take the under at 58. The field in PA is a mess, and I just see this as a 24-20 ballgame, favor of UC. It'll be cold, with flurries, just good old fashioned December football

Apologies if not welcomed in the NFL thread :unsure:
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Please.If I think it could make me money, I'd bet on the next episode of Bridezilla.

 
kroyrunner89 said:
massraider said:
kroyrunner89 said:
Jeff Pasquino said:
I'm not a fan of this one, but the trend is strong for the Under - 5-0 on Thursdays this year.GL.
Click to expand...
Damn well the under isn't looking too good at halftime, but there's still hope I guess. Give me a couple more quarters like the first one.
Click to expand...
Done. Good call here.
Click to expand...
Thanks! It sure made me nervous at times, but it all worked out! :banned:
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I worked both angles of this one last night, thanks! Made a couple bucks! I read all of Kroyrunners picks weekly from Premium Football Picks, he's putting together a nice season!
 
We've benefited from winning Thursdays a few weeks in a row now, and like previous weeks I'm hoping to continue the momentum. I feel like this weekend is a bit tougher than most, but I've still come up with a few plays that I feel pretty good about. Here's what I like this weekend:

* Tennessee Titans +6.5

It feels like almost everybody is on this play already, which as I mentioned last week in my Dolphins play always worries me a bit. However, I simply can't ignore the recent level of play by the Titans. Vince Young has revitalized the offense, Tennessee is throwing for 7.39 yards/pass attempt and rushing for 5.5 yards/carry, 4th and 1st best in the NFL. On defense, their rushing defense has been a bit of a problem, however the Colts have the 9th worst rushing offense in the NFL so I expect that this won't be a huge issue. The key I see here is the Titans' pass defense. They've played much better of late, as the unit is starting to get healthy and they've been the 5th best defense in the NFL in terms of passing yards per attempt allowed.

This is a much different Titans team than the Colts saw earlier this season, and I don't think that Tennessee will repeat the mistake of giving Johnson the ball only 9 times. I don't think the Colts' defense will be able to shut Tennessee's offense down, and that the Titans will be able to slow the Indy offense just enough to give themselves a chance to win this game. I'll take the points and hope the Titans get the job done.

* Washington Redskins +9.5

After an impressive Monday Night win over the Patriots, I think this is an obvious letdown spot for the Saints. After their last Monday Night victory over the Panthers they showed some signs of letting down, before the Panthers handed them the game and they won by 10. I think that they'll struggle even a little more in this spot, especially because the game is on the road. Another factor to take into consideration in this one is that Washington has the 4th best pass defense in the NFL, allowing just 5.48 yards/pass attempt. The only other opponent that the Saints have played that was ranked top 8 in pass defense was the Jets, and they held the Saints to 10 offensive points. Buffalo, the 9th ranked pass defense, also held Brees in check and limited the Saints to 27 points, their second lowest point total of the year. So, given the facts that Washington is strong against the pass and this is a letdown spot, I think the Saints will likely be held under 30 points.

So, given that I feel the Saints' offense may struggle a bit, the question becomes how effectively the Redskins can keep up on the scoreboard. Two of Washington's last three games they've topped 21 points, and I'm starting to think that their offense may be coming together. The Saints will also be without 4 defensive players on Sunday, and I think the letdown from Monday Night will be even more apparent on the defensive side of the ball. The Redskins should be able to put some solid drives together and make a game of this one, as they'll probably try to attack the Saints on the ground all game, and succeed. Again, I'll take the points and hope that the Redskins come ready to play.

That's all I'm going to release for now, I'm strongly considering Panthers -5, but I need to wait to hear if DeAngelo Williams is playing, and if Tampa's cornerback Aqib Talib is playing. Each of these factors will go a long way in my decision, I'll update tomorrow if I can! If I can't make it to the forums in time, just assume it's a play if Williams plays and Talib doesn't!

 
domvin said:
I know this is mostly NFL, but I feel a great opportunity is the Cincinnati-Pitt game Saturday. Take the under at 58. The field in PA is a mess, and I just see this as a 24-20 ballgame, favor of UC. It'll be cold, with flurries, just good old fashioned December footballApologies if not welcomed in the NFL thread :thumbdown:
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The under call was a clunker here, apologies if anyone heeded my terrible adviceUC covered though, if you got in on the Pick em early in the week
 
Really impressive take on the Redskins. I wasn't confident in them really. I did like the Titans, tough luck on that one.

Any lean on the Vikings-Cardinals? MIN-3, total 49.

 
The Jacket said:
Really impressive take on the Redskins. I wasn't confident in them really. I did like the Titans, tough luck on that one. Any lean on the Vikings-Cardinals? MIN-3, total 49.
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I like the under...Vikes D should be able to hold Arizona.
 
From ESPN's Chad Millman: LINK

It's safe to say we all learned a valuable lesson this weekend: Money always finds its way back to the house (except mine, that is).

In case you're one of those people not paying attention, the dogs went 10-4 this past weekend, one of the biggest winning Sundays The Strip has had all year. That record included three home dogs covering in the Jags, Seahawks and Cards. And it included three of this season's favorite whipping teams -- the Lions, the Rams and the Browns -- all covering. And it included the Raiders, the freaking Raiders, showing a real commitment to excellence by not only beating the Steelers on the road, but pulling their record against the spread to 6-6. Point is, you can make money betting on the Raiders.

The books were especially tickled by the Titans-Colts game. That one opened with the Colts as touchdown favorites and was bet down. The power of the Titans' streak was too much for folks to ignore, even though the Colts had a 20-game win streak of their own going into the game. Silly recency bias (I'm guilty). This one was never close and the books cleaned up.

Same was true with the NFL's other undefeated team, the Saints. This was a classic sharp vs. public matchup. All season, squares have been putting money on the Saints, ignoring the fact they've had a hard time covering against weak link teams. Meanwhile, the Redskins' D has made them a wise guy favorite this year (I've written that sentence about seven times since Thanksgiving) and they've covered the past several weeks. So, come Sunday, the books made bank from the loads of public money on the Saints, which far outweighed the sharp money won on the Redskins.

Actually, it's safe to say we learned two things this weekend: Money always finds its way back to the house. And at least some people will be sad when Jim Zorn gets fired.
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The Sports Guy went 2-12 against the spread on Sunday. Looks like a rough week for the betting public.
 
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