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Official Week 2 Wagering Thread (1 Viewer)

K

kroyrunner89

Footballguy
Here's an early look at the lines this week, I'll edit and update them Thursday or Friday.

Week 2 Lines:

Raiders +3 @ Chiefs 38

Texans +6.5 @ Titans 41

Patriots -3.5 @ Jets 45.5

Bengals +9 @ Packers 42

Vikings -10 @ Lions 45

Saints -1 @ Eagles 46

Panthers +6 @ Falcons 42.5

Rams +10 @ Redskins 36.5

Cardinals +3 @ Jaguars 42

Seahawks +1.5 @ 49ers 39.5

Bucs +4.5 @ Bills 42

Browns +3 @ Broncos 38.5

Ravens +3 @ Chargers 40

Steelers -3 @ Bears 37.5

Giants +3 @ Cowboys 44.5

Colts -3 @ Dolphins 42

Good luck this week everyone!

 
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This is actually a really ugly week for suicide pools as well. Best two bets have to be Packers and Redskins, after that there isn't much though!

 
I know it's the Rams, but should the Skins being laying 10 against anyone? Of course, said the same thing about Seattle last week .......

Surprised the Pats line is so high after Pats looked blah on national TV and Jets, Ryan & Sanchez were toast of Week 1. I'd think a lot of people will pounding the Jets. Will be interesting to see if there is any line movement ...

 
my early picks..

Week 2 Lines:

Raiders +3 @ Chiefs 39.5

Texans +6.5 @ Titans 40.5

Patriots -5 @ Jets 47

Bengals +9 @ Packers 42

Vikings -9.5 @ Lions 46.5

Saints ??? @ Eagles ???

Panthers +6 @ Falcons 43

Rams +10 @ Redskins 37

Cardinals +3 @ Jaguars 42.5

Seahawks +1.5 @ 49ers 39.5

Bucs +4 @ Bills 42

Browns +3 @ Broncos 37.5

Ravens +3 @ Chargers 40.5

Steelers -3 @ Bears 38

Giants +3 @ Cowboys 44

Colts -3 @ Dolphins 42

 
Thanks Brother for the advice, I'll be looking forward to your post. For the first time ever I joined a site {BODOG} and put $300 on the RAVENS to cover and they barely did cover, on the last touchdown as the clock ran out...against the Kansas City Chiefs..wow..that felt great. I thought I was going to lose.. I have used a local bookie in the past but he's no longer taking book so I decided to go this route to the internet. Here's the question sir:

You sound like a PRO at this and I will seek your'e advice. Please tell me, is this BODOG a good reliable site, as they are an off shore site out of Dubai, [scary?] even my own bank called me on sunday morning.., and asked me if it was "ok" for the transaction..$300 deposit..

Am I making the right choice here and will they.. pay up?

Secondly BODOG doesn't have the numbers up early in the week as the other sites do [sBRLINES.COM], so it looks like BODOG waits until the line..moves before they post the numbers, so we cannot get an early advantage and jump on something..early in the week...

Second question:

Don't the BEST Pro bettors mostly bet as soon as the line hits, to take the advantage..or do some of them wait until right before kickoff to make their choice or both?

Question for everyone:

Who are the best sites that you have had good luck with and who are the one's that are honest? Thanks beginners luck is worth gold..lol..

Ltrain

 
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SALEEN786 said:
Thanks Brother for the advice, I'll be looking forward to your post. For the first time ever I joined a site {BODOG} and put $300 on the RAVENS to cover and they barely did cover, on the last touchdown as the clock ran out...against the Kansas City Chiefs..wow..that felt great. I thought I was going to lose.. I have used a local bookie in the past but he's no longer taking book so I decided to go this route to the internet. here's the question sir:

You sound like a PRO at this and I will seek your'e advice. Please tell me, is this BODOG a good reliable site, as they are an off shore site out of Dubai, even my own bank called me, and asked me if it was "ok" for the transaction..$300 deposit..am I making the right choice here and will they pay up? Secondly BODOG doesn't have the numbers up early in the week as the others do [sBRLINES.COM], so it looks like BODOG waits until the line..moves before they post the numbers, so we cannot get an early advantage and jump on something..early in the week...don't the BEST Pro's mostly bet as soon as the line hits, or do some of them wait until right before kickoff?

thanks

Ltrain
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Although I've had no personal experience with BODOG, they do have a pretty good reputation and a B+ rating on SBR. As long as you aren't from Canada I foresee no problems for you. I'm glad you already know about SBR, that's where I go for a lot of sportsbook related advice. Here is their page on Bodog: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/sbr/bodog_sportsbook/. In the future if you happen to cash out all your money off of Bodog or lose it, I'd suggest you go through SBR's Sportsbook selector to choose where you deposit next. http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Match+your...ok/default.aspx. They do a good job of matching you with the book best for you. I personally use BetPhoenix, because getting money quickly is important to me and they payout by moneygram, usually a two or three day process. As far as when to bet the line, there really is no right answer. If you truly are good at identifying value in a line, a half a point or a point of movement as the week goes on really shouldn't affect your picks. Some people do choose to bet early in the week, personally I prefer to wait on injury news late in the week and get a clearer picture if weather is going to impact any of the games. I'd do whatever you're comfortable with, but personally I prefer waiting. Good luck with your Week 2 wagers, glad Baltimore pulled off the miracle for you! Green Bay did similar for me!

 
kroyrunner89 said:
SALEEN786 said:
Thanks Brother for the advice, I'll be looking forward to your post. For the first time ever I joined a site {BODOG} and put $300 on the RAVENS to cover and they barely did cover, on the last touchdown as the clock ran out...against the Kansas City Chiefs..wow..that felt great. I thought I was going to lose.. I have used a local bookie in the past but he's no longer taking book so I decided to go this route to the internet. here's the question sir:

You sound like a PRO at this and I will seek your'e advice. Please tell me, is this BODOG a good reliable site, as they are an off shore site out of Dubai, even my own bank called me, and asked me if it was "ok" for the transaction..$300 deposit..am I making the right choice here and will they pay up? Secondly BODOG doesn't have the numbers up early in the week as the others do [sBRLINES.COM], so it looks like BODOG waits until the line..moves before they post the numbers, so we cannot get an early advantage and jump on something..early in the week...don't the BEST Pro's mostly bet as soon as the line hits, or do some of them wait until right before kickoff?

thanks

Ltrain
Click to expand...
Although I've had no personal experience with BODOG, they do have a pretty good reputation and a B+ rating on SBR. As long as you aren't from Canada I foresee no problems for you. I'm glad you already know about SBR, that's where I go for a lot of sportsbook related advice. Here is their page on Bodog: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/sbr/bodog_sportsbook/. In the future if you happen to cash out all your money off of Bodog or lose it, I'd suggest you go through SBR's Sportsbook selector to choose where you deposit next. http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Match+your...ok/default.aspx. They do a good job of matching you with the book best for you. I personally use BetPhoenix, because getting money quickly is important to me and they payout by moneygram, usually a two or three day process. As far as when to bet the line, there really is no right answer. If you truly are good at identifying value in a line, a half a point or a point of movement as the week goes on really shouldn't affect your picks. Some people do choose to bet early in the week, personally I prefer to wait on injury news late in the week and get a clearer picture if weather is going to impact any of the games. I'd do whatever you're comfortable with, but personally I prefer waiting. Good luck with your Week 2 wagers, glad Baltimore pulled off the miracle for you! Green Bay did similar for me!
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Week 2 Lines:

Raiders +3 @ Chiefs 39.5

Texans +6.5 @ Titans 40.5

Patriots -5 @ Jets 47

Bengals +9 @ Packers 42

Vikings -9.5 @ Lions 46.5

Saints ??? @ Eagles ???

Panthers +6 @ Falcons 43

Rams +10 @ Redskins 37

Cardinals +3 @ Jaguars 42.5

Seahawks +1.5 @ 49ers 39.5

Bucs +4 @ Bills 42

Browns +3 @ Broncos 37.5

Ravens +3 @ Chargers 40.5

Steelers -3 @ Bears 38

Giants +3 @ Cowboys 44

Colts -3 @ Dolphins 42

 
mt99808 said:
Bodog actually has a terrible reputation. You need to do more research than just SBR.
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I originally thought that as well but it looks like they've improved lately. Like I said, I have no personal experience with them. Would you mind giving us a source that says it is terrible?
 
I am curious as well as to which site is the best and which site has the best cash bonus when you sign up. I just took money out of oddsmaker.com thay had some free money bullcrap that you use somehow. Anyway thanks for the help.

 
I am unloading on Jacksonville (at home vs. the Cards) as one of my best bets of the year.

First, I think the Jags are much improved from last year -- they took the Colts to the wire at Indy last weekend. But more than that is what complete garbage Arizona is on the road, espcecially when playing 1 p.m. East Coast games. Last year, the Cards won 3 road games -- all vs. the NFC West.

When they came east, they were 0-5, losing to Washington, the Jets (56-35), Carolina, Philly (43-20) and New England (47-7). I pounded away on the Cards on the road late last season and will contine to ride this trend until they prove me wrong.

 
The_Man said:
I am unloading on Jacksonville (at home vs. the Cards) as one of my best bets of the year. First, I think the Jags are much improved from last year -- they took the Colts to the wire at Indy last weekend. But more than that is what complete garbage Arizona is on the road, espcecially when playing 1 p.m. East Coast games. Last year, the Cards won 3 road games -- all vs. the NFC West.When they came east, they were 0-5, losing to Washington, the Jets (56-35), Carolina, Philly (43-20) and New England (47-7). I pounded away on the Cards on the road late last season and will contine to ride this trend until they prove me wrong.
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Definitely a play that's on my radar, there's a decent chance I wind up picking this one. I'd like to know the status of Breaston and Boldin first, and also look into the matchups a little bit more first
 
kroyrunner89 said:
swifty said:
I am curious as well as to which site is the best and which site has the best cash bonus when you sign up. I just took money out of oddsmaker.com thay had some free money bullcrap that you use somehow. Anyway thanks for the help.
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Use this site to help you pick a good book, although cash bonuses are nice it does you no good if you can't get your money. http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Match+your...ok/default.aspx
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My friend recommended sportsbook.com to me. He's used it for years and hasnt had any issues. That site gives it a horrible rating though. Now I'm a little worried.
 
Panthers +6 @ Falcons 43--I think I like the Panthers a lot here.

Seahawks +1.5 @ 49ers 39.5--Man, I think Seattle is one of those teams bettors will catch up with later, but love them here.

Bucs +4.5 @ Bills 42--Let down for Bills after Monday night game, loss of Poz helps the Bucs run game.

Browns +3 @ Broncos 37.5--Like Denver at home.

Colts -3 @ Dolphins 42--I might like to tease the Fins here, but their D is legit. If the running game gets going, Colts could have problems.

Should be said that I am a casual bettor, and no one should take my opinions with anything resembling respect, but that's who I like.

 
massraider said:
Panthers +6 @ Falcons 43--I think I like the Panthers a lot here.

Seahawks +1.5 @ 49ers 39.5--Man, I think Seattle is one of those teams bettors will catch up with later, but love them here.

Bucs +4.5 @ Bills 42--Let down for Bills after Monday night game, loss of Poz helps the Bucs run game.

Browns +3 @ Broncos 37.5--Like Denver at home.

Colts -3 @ Dolphins 42--I might like to tease the Fins here, but their D is legit. If the running game gets going, Colts could have problems.

Should be said that I am a casual bettor, and no one should take my opinions with anything resembling respect, but that's who I like.
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I'd like to hear your thoughts about the Panthers, I was leaning Falcons earlier in the week but have backed off of that position a bit since. I'd like to hear what angle you're coming from
 
I like:

IND -3 - I have no confidence in Chad Pennington. Certainly I would not expect them to turn the ball over as much as they did in Week 1, but if they turn it over twice, Peyton Manning is going to make them pay.

NYG +3 - Romo seems to be ok, but I am impressed with NY. I expect a low scoring game, which should favor NY. I think the line will shrink before kickoff.

CLE +3 - I watched DEN closely last week. They are not good at all. Of course, Cleveland is not exactly good either but something tells me CLE is going to create a few turnovers in this one and win outright.

Oddly enough, all road teams. That does not bode well. I really would have thought the Steelers would be laying more than 3.

 
I've used 3 different ones:

Sportsbook

Bodog

5Dimes

I've never had any major issues with any of them. Sportsbook pi$$ed me off so I stopped using them. They sent out a re-load offer one night. They sent the offer early and 45 minutes before you could actually get it and based on it I deposited money like 5 minutes before the official offer time and they refused to give me the bonus. The one major benefit of sportsbook is that my credit card company would let me deposit directly to them. But, that is the only one. They deny charges for all other offshore betting charges.

I use 5Dimes now, but, that is just because I'm boxing obsessed and they offer the most boxing lines of anyone I've seen. And, they offer them early so you can take advantage of line changes.

I'm taking the Pats this week. Got them at -3. I think the line should be higher. Belichek is going to eat up Sanchez.

I may also take the Raiders, but, I'll wait on that one.

 
Being an Aussie with heaps of online betting options available to us from here and abroad, just wondering if you guys are able to use Betfair over there?

While I use others for my horse racing & sports parlays, Betfair is absolutely unbelievable as odds are higher, heaps more selections than others on a heap of sports and it has in-play live betting.

Best part is that you are betting against other people, rather than the tote, so you can set your own odds.

Here's their website FWIW...

They are UK owned I believe but have dozens of regional agencies worldwide (eg the Aus one runs close by out of Melbourne)

 
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I love the Chargers/Ravens over 40.5 this week. This will probably be my biggest bet of the year. I normally would never bet a Ravens game over but they have talked all off season about opening up the offense and so far thru the pre season and week one they have done just that. The Ravens are banged up in the secondary and are strong against the run plus I think LT will miss this game which tells me the passing game will be the chargers main way of moving the ball. The Chargers give up big plays in the pasing game and their defense is just not as strong as it was 2-3 years ago. I'm on the over big this week. G/L

 
Never done any sports betting (besides fantasy football), and dont plan to unless I have money to burn, but I have to say Kroyrunner you do a real good job, I checked out your website a little and its very well thought out and well written. Good luck everyone and make big bucks :shrug:

 
joetrow said:
Never done any sports betting (besides fantasy football), and dont plan to unless I have money to burn, but I have to say Kroyrunner you do a real good job, I checked out your website a little and its very well thought out and well written. Good luck everyone and make big bucks :shrug:
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Thanks for the kind words Joetrow, I really appreciate it. Since footballguys is the first football forum I belonged to, I'll throw a play I've already decided on up early for all you guys (As if you guys were hanging off my every word, hah!) The first play I'm liking this week is Eagles PK. The general public perception right now is that no Mcnabb = No win for the Eagles, plus that Drew Brees has entered beast mode and will throw big points on the board as usual. With no Mcnabb, how could the Eagles possibly keep up? Well, there are a few skeletons in the Saints' closet that I'm not willing to ignore, making Philly the clear pick for me. For one, the Saints were just a 2-6 road team last year. Their two wins? Against the 2-14 Chiefs and the 0-16 Lions. A big reason for this was a fall in Brees' numbers when he played on the road. Although his yardage was fairly similar to when he played at home, he threw 11 tds to 10 ints. Compared to his 23 tds to 5 ints at home, not so great.One game I remember getting burned on last year was betting on the Saints in Week 2. They had just stomped a solid Tampa Bay defense at home, and went on the road to play the Redskins who had struggled mightily on offense in Week 1. The Saints were only 3 point favorites, and everyone and their mother seemed to love them to cover and win handily. After 4 quarters of football, the Saints found themselves losers 29-25. After an average to below average defensive performance against Detroit (I'm not holding the returned fumble for a td against them), I've seen nothing to indicate that this defensive unit is greatly improved. Kolb has been in this league for a while and should be ready to play, not to mention the outside chance Mcnabb plays still.Maybe the Saints have really turned over a new leaf this year, but until I see something to prove it I have to go against them in this spot. The Eagles are one of the favorites in the NFC with or without Mcnabb, and you can bet that their defense will do it's job and apply the pressure to Brees, forcing some mistakes. It'll probably be a close one, but in the end I see the Eagles coming out on top.
 
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I have a 3 team 6 pt teaser I really like also.

Panthers +12

Texans +12.5

Seahawks + 7.5

I think these lines are a bit of a over reaction from week 1. I think the Panthers will have a much better game this week and I don't feel the Falcons def is as good as the Eagles. I think the Texans took the Jets lightly and got stunned so I expect a much better effort there also. The play on the Hawks is more of a play against Mike Singletary. I feel like he coaches not to lose instead of winning a game. I think his coaching style keeps games close and ugly so i will look to back Dogs all year against the Niners. I may play these 3 games straight up also but most of my roll will be on the Chargers over this week.

 
kroyrunner89 said:
joetrow said:
Never done any sports betting (besides fantasy football), and dont plan to unless I have money to burn, but I have to say Kroyrunner you do a real good job, I checked out your website a little and its very well thought out and well written. Good luck everyone and make big bucks :goodposting:
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Thanks for the kind words Joetrow, I really appreciate it. Since footballguys is the first football forum I belonged to, I'll throw a play I've already decided on up early for all you guys (As if you guys were hanging off my every word, hah!) The first play I'm liking this week is Eagles PK. The general public perception right now is that no Mcnabb = No win for the Eagles, plus that Drew Brees has entered beast mode and will throw big points on the board as usual. With no Mcnabb, how could the Eagles possibly keep up? Well, there are a few skeletons in the Saints' closet that I'm not willing to ignore, making Philly the clear pick for me. For one, the Saints were just a 2-6 road team last year. Their two wins? Against the 2-14 Chiefs and the 0-16 Lions. A big reason for this was a fall in Brees' numbers when he played on the road. Although his yardage was fairly similar to when he played at home, he threw 11 tds to 10 ints. Compared to his 23 tds to 5 ints at home, not so great.One game I remember getting burned on last year was betting on the Saints in Week 2. They had just stomped a solid Tampa Bay defense at home, and went on the road to play the Redskins who had struggled mightily on offense in Week 1. The Saints were only 3 point favorites, and everyone and their mother seemed to love them to cover and win handily. After 4 quarters of football, the Saints found themselves losers 29-25. After an average to below average defensive performance against Detroit (I'm not holding the returned fumble for a td against them), I've seen nothing to indicate that this defensive unit is greatly improved. Kolb has been in this league for a while and should be ready to play, not to mention the outside chance Mcnabb plays still.Maybe the Saints have really turned over a new leaf this year, but until I see something to prove it I have to go against them in this spot. The Eagles are one of the favorites in the NFC with or without Mcnabb, and you can bet that their defense will do it's job and apply the pressure to Brees, forcing some mistakes. It'll probably be a close one, but in the end I see the Eagles coming out on top.
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looks like KOY RUNNER [who is amazing at this by the way] is being watched by VEGAS too, they musta saw his thread and removed the Saints/ Philly game from the wire..lol..
 
kroyrunner89 said:
joetrow said:
Never done any sports betting (besides fantasy football), and dont plan to unless I have money to burn, but I have to say Kroyrunner you do a real good job, I checked out your website a little and its very well thought out and well written. Good luck everyone and make big bucks :drive:
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Thanks for the kind words Joetrow, I really appreciate it. Since footballguys is the first football forum I belonged to, I'll throw a play I've already decided on up early for all you guys (As if you guys were hanging off my every word, hah!) The first play I'm liking this week is Eagles PK. The general public perception right now is that no Mcnabb = No win for the Eagles, plus that Drew Brees has entered beast mode and will throw big points on the board as usual. With no Mcnabb, how could the Eagles possibly keep up? Well, there are a few skeletons in the Saints' closet that I'm not willing to ignore, making Philly the clear pick for me. For one, the Saints were just a 2-6 road team last year. Their two wins? Against the 2-14 Chiefs and the 0-16 Lions. A big reason for this was a fall in Brees' numbers when he played on the road. Although his yardage was fairly similar to when he played at home, he threw 11 tds to 10 ints. Compared to his 23 tds to 5 ints at home, not so great.One game I remember getting burned on last year was betting on the Saints in Week 2. They had just stomped a solid Tampa Bay defense at home, and went on the road to play the Redskins who had struggled mightily on offense in Week 1. The Saints were only 3 point favorites, and everyone and their mother seemed to love them to cover and win handily. After 4 quarters of football, the Saints found themselves losers 29-25. After an average to below average defensive performance against Detroit (I'm not holding the returned fumble for a td against them), I've seen nothing to indicate that this defensive unit is greatly improved. Kolb has been in this league for a while and should be ready to play, not to mention the outside chance Mcnabb plays still.Maybe the Saints have really turned over a new leaf this year, but until I see something to prove it I have to go against them in this spot. The Eagles are one of the favorites in the NFC with or without Mcnabb, and you can bet that their defense will do it's job and apply the pressure to Brees, forcing some mistakes. It'll probably be a close one, but in the end I see the Eagles coming out on top.
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looks like KOY RUNNER [who is amazing at this by the way] is being watched by VEGAS too, they musta saw his thread and removed the Saints/ Philly game from the wire..lol..I'm not a big bettor but I read something from Jim Feist the Pro yesterday that made sense, and he said "The defenses in the first week are way ahead of the offenses in the NFL, so as Mr. Black stated and I agree the DOGS..need to be let out this week..
 
Here is what I'm doing. $5 on 5 special (wins $115)

TEN (-7)

GB (-10)

MIN (-10)

Tampa (+7)

BLT (+7)

Some ramdom notes per sporting news:

OAK has covered @ KC in 5 of past 6

HOU has won only 2 of last 11 road games

NE has covered in 7 of past 10 games vs JET

CIN haven't covered in past 5 games vs GB

DET has covered once in past 9 home games

ATL has won 9 of past 10 @ home

WASH has covered once in past 6 home games

JAX has covered once in past 8 home games

SEA has covered in 4 of past 5 games

BUF has failed to cover in past 5 home games

CLE has failed to cover in past 5 games

BLT has covered in 5 of past 6 games

CHI has won 6 of past 7 home games

DAL has covered in 4 of past 5 home games

 
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kroyrunner89 said:
joetrow said:
Never done any sports betting (besides fantasy football), and dont plan to unless I have money to burn, but I have to say Kroyrunner you do a real good job, I checked out your website a little and its very well thought out and well written. Good luck everyone and make big bucks :hophead:
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Thanks for the kind words Joetrow, I really appreciate it. Since footballguys is the first football forum I belonged to, I'll throw a play I've already decided on up early for all you guys (As if you guys were hanging off my every word, hah!) The first play I'm liking this week is Eagles PK. The general public perception right now is that no Mcnabb = No win for the Eagles, plus that Drew Brees has entered beast mode and will throw big points on the board as usual. With no Mcnabb, how could the Eagles possibly keep up? Well, there are a few skeletons in the Saints' closet that I'm not willing to ignore, making Philly the clear pick for me. For one, the Saints were just a 2-6 road team last year. Their two wins? Against the 2-14 Chiefs and the 0-16 Lions. A big reason for this was a fall in Brees' numbers when he played on the road. Although his yardage was fairly similar to when he played at home, he threw 11 tds to 10 ints. Compared to his 23 tds to 5 ints at home, not so great.One game I remember getting burned on last year was betting on the Saints in Week 2. They had just stomped a solid Tampa Bay defense at home, and went on the road to play the Redskins who had struggled mightily on offense in Week 1. The Saints were only 3 point favorites, and everyone and their mother seemed to love them to cover and win handily. After 4 quarters of football, the Saints found themselves losers 29-25. After an average to below average defensive performance against Detroit (I'm not holding the returned fumble for a td against them), I've seen nothing to indicate that this defensive unit is greatly improved. Kolb has been in this league for a while and should be ready to play, not to mention the outside chance Mcnabb plays still.Maybe the Saints have really turned over a new leaf this year, but until I see something to prove it I have to go against them in this spot. The Eagles are one of the favorites in the NFC with or without Mcnabb, and you can bet that their defense will do it's job and apply the pressure to Brees, forcing some mistakes. It'll probably be a close one, but in the end I see the Eagles coming out on top.
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A lot of what you posted is why I am just not touching this game. I feel like there is a lot of uncertainty here. You cannot really judge NO against Detroit in my opinion, but you're right that they are over inflated at this point. However, while Kevil Kolb has been in the league, he hasnt impressed me in the little time that he played. I'd rather just not mess with the game.I'm looking at:Jax -3Bal +3Mia +3Was considering 49ers at -1.5 but the moving around the o-line scares me some. They almost choked away last week, so I kind of want to see how they react. Although i generally like them. Seattle pitched a shut out last week, but it was STL . . . so again, I feel like I cant really judge them just yet. They may be far better this year though. So kind of staying away from this game as well, unless somebody can talk me into either team . . . .
 
I also took washington +19.5 over USC. Two weeks in a row on the road . . . tough game last week . . . QB first start of the season . . . coaching staff are all USCers . . . .

 
Bills_Fan11 said:
I'm liking more games (and road teams) than usual this week:Detroit +10NYG +3NE -3.5Chicago +3Carolina +6.5Oakland +3
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Funny that you like so many, I'm sitting on two picks I'm on for sure right now only. I have a few more I'm considering, but I personally think this is a tough week. I'm definitely considering Chicago, I've got a hunch they take that game outright, but I need to decide if there's enough value in the pick to go ahead and recommend it. Nothing wrong with going with road teams this week though, home field advantage sure has been hard to find lately. I'd caution you against Carolina, just because they're one team that was especially bad on the road last year, against one of the few teams that appeared to have a true homefield advantage. Good luck with your plays
 
kroyrunner89 said:
Bills_Fan11 said:
I'm liking more games (and road teams) than usual this week:

Detroit +10

NYG +3

NE -3.5

Chicago +3

Carolina +6.5

Oakland +3
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Funny that you like so many, I'm sitting on two picks I'm on for sure right now only. I have a few more I'm considering, but I personally think this is a tough week. I'm definitely considering Chicago, I've got a hunch they take that game outright, but I need to decide if there's enough value in the pick to go ahead and recommend it. Nothing wrong with going with road teams this week though, home field advantage sure has been hard to find lately. I'd caution you against Carolina, just because they're one team that was especially bad on the road last year, against one of the few teams that appeared to have a true homefield advantage. Good luck with your plays
Click to expand...
The thing is 1 year is way too small of a sample to measure HFA imo. Up until last year's reg. season they've always been a much better road team in the Fox/Delhomme era. The '06 Steelers were a little like that too - very outlier home/away splits. I think when you look at multiple years of data it's safe to say the the NFC South homecooking was a bit of a fluke last year. The Pats/Jets otoh has been a road series for 10+ years. I also think in Delhomme's case right now, leaving home is the best thing for him.

 
Bills_Fan11 said:
kroyrunner89 said:
Bills_Fan11 said:
I'm liking more games (and road teams) than usual this week:

Detroit +10

NYG +3

NE -3.5

Chicago +3

Carolina +6.5

Oakland +3
Click to expand...
Funny that you like so many, I'm sitting on two picks I'm on for sure right now only. I have a few more I'm considering, but I personally think this is a tough week. I'm definitely considering Chicago, I've got a hunch they take that game outright, but I need to decide if there's enough value in the pick to go ahead and recommend it. Nothing wrong with going with road teams this week though, home field advantage sure has been hard to find lately. I'd caution you against Carolina, just because they're one team that was especially bad on the road last year, against one of the few teams that appeared to have a true homefield advantage. Good luck with your plays
Click to expand...
The thing is 1 year is way too small of a sample to measure HFA imo. Up until last year's reg. season they've always been a much better road team in the Fox/Delhomme era. The '06 Steelers were a little like that too - very outlier home/away splits. I think when you look at multiple years of data it's safe to say the the NFC South homecooking was a bit of a fluke last year. The Pats/Jets otoh has been a road series for 10+ years. I also think in Delhomme's case right now, leaving home is the best thing for him.
Click to expand...
I agree with you to a certain extent. Although it's only one year, which probably was a bit more pronounced of a HFA than usual, I still think there is a lot of value in looking at it. I prefer to take an approach of looking at this stuff in terms of "What have you done for me lately". The teams are composed of similar players and the same coach (In most cases), so comparing to how things went last year seems pretty reasonable. When you start trying to look at the bigger picture, you're looking at years or data that are with completely different teams. I'm not going to spend all season looking at last year obviously, but right now it's all I have to go off of. I think that overall, it's best to just look at the small picture and ignore what the teams from long ago have done.
 
kroyrunner89 said:
Bills_Fan11 said:
kroyrunner89 said:
Bills_Fan11 said:
I'm liking more games (and road teams) than usual this week:

Detroit +10

NYG +3

NE -3.5

Chicago +3

Carolina +6.5

Oakland +3
Click to expand...
Funny that you like so many, I'm sitting on two picks I'm on for sure right now only. I have a few more I'm considering, but I personally think this is a tough week. I'm definitely considering Chicago, I've got a hunch they take that game outright, but I need to decide if there's enough value in the pick to go ahead and recommend it. Nothing wrong with going with road teams this week though, home field advantage sure has been hard to find lately. I'd caution you against Carolina, just because they're one team that was especially bad on the road last year, against one of the few teams that appeared to have a true homefield advantage. Good luck with your plays
Click to expand...
The thing is 1 year is way too small of a sample to measure HFA imo. Up until last year's reg. season they've always been a much better road team in the Fox/Delhomme era. The '06 Steelers were a little like that too - very outlier home/away splits. I think when you look at multiple years of data it's safe to say the the NFC South homecooking was a bit of a fluke last year. The Pats/Jets otoh has been a road series for 10+ years. I also think in Delhomme's case right now, leaving home is the best thing for him.
Click to expand...
I agree with you to a certain extent. Although it's only one year, which probably was a bit more pronounced of a HFA than usual, I still think there is a lot of value in looking at it. I prefer to take an approach of looking at this stuff in terms of "What have you done for me lately". The teams are composed of similar players and the same coach (In most cases), so comparing to how things went last year seems pretty reasonable. When you start trying to look at the bigger picture, you're looking at years or data that are with completely different teams. I'm not going to spend all season looking at last year obviously, but right now it's all I have to go off of. I think that overall, it's best to just look at the small picture and ignore what the teams from long ago have done.
Click to expand...
Agree to disagree I guess. Carolina has had the same core for a while now; as did the Giants (who are probably the best example) when they went from 8-0 to 3-5 at home a couple yrs ago.
 
The_Man said:
I am unloading on Jacksonville (at home vs. the Cards) as one of my best bets of the year. First, I think the Jags are much improved from last year -- they took the Colts to the wire at Indy last weekend. But more than that is what complete garbage Arizona is on the road, espcecially when playing 1 p.m. East Coast games. Last year, the Cards won 3 road games -- all vs. the NFC West.When they came east, they were 0-5, losing to Washington, the Jets (56-35), Carolina, Philly (43-20) and New England (47-7). I pounded away on the Cards on the road late last season and will contine to ride this trend until they prove me wrong.
Click to expand...
This is the game I've been liking all week for all of your same reasons, count me in.
 
Markus P Dub said:
Here is what I'm doing. $5 on 5 special (wins $115)

TEN (-7)

GB (-10)

MIN (-10)

Tampa (+7)

BLT (+7)

Some ramdom notes per sporting news:

OAK has covered @ KC in 5 of past 6

HOU has won only 2 of last 11 road games

NE has covered in 7 of past 10 games vs JET

CIN haven't covered in past 5 games vs GB

DET has covered once in past 9 home gamesATL has won 9 of past 10 @ home

WASH has covered once in past 6 home games

JAX has covered once in past 8 home games

SEA has covered in 4 of past 5 games

BUF has failed to cover in past 5 home games

CLE has failed to cover in past 5 games

BLT has covered in 5 of past 6 games

CHI has won 6 of past 7 home games

DAL has covered in 4 of past 5 home games
Click to expand...
Yeah and guess against who that was...
 
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