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***Official Week 6 NFL Wagering Thread*** (1 Viewer)

TheWick

Footballguy
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total

10/12 1:00 ET At New Orleans -8 Oakland 47.5

10/12 1:00 ET At Indianapolis -4.5 Baltimore 39

10/12 1:00 ET At NY Jets -6 Cincinnati 45

10/12 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay -1.5 Carolina 36.5

10/12 1:00 ET At Minnesota -13.5 Detroit 46

10/12 1:00 ET Chicago -2.5 At Atlanta 43.5

10/12 1:00 ET At Houston -3 Miami 45

10/12 1:00 ET At Washington -13.5 St. Louis 44

10/12 4:05 ET At Denver -3.5 Jacksonville 48.5

10/12 4:15 ET Philadelphia -4.5 At San Francisco 42.5

10/12 4:15 ET Dallas -5 At Arizona 50

10/12 4:15 ET At Seattle -2 Green Bay 46.5

10/12 8:15 ET At San Diego -6 New England 44.5

Monday Night Football Line

10/13 8:35 ET NY Giants -8 At Cleveland 43

 
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Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total 10/12 1:00 ET At New Orleans -7 Oakland Off 10/12 1:00 ET At Indianapolis -4 Baltimore 39 10/12 1:00 ET At NY Jets -6 Cincinnati 45.5 10/12 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay -1.5 Carolina 36.5 10/12 1:00 ET At Minnesota -13 Detroit Off 10/12 1:00 ET Chicago -2.5 At Atlanta 43 10/12 1:00 ET At Houston -3 Miami 45 10/12 1:00 ET At Washington -13.5 St. Louis 44.5 10/12 4:05 ET At Denver -3.5 Jacksonville 48 10/12 4:15 ET Philadelphia -4.5 At San Francisco 42.5 10/12 4:15 ET Dallas -5.5 At Arizona 49 10/12 4:15 ET At Seattle -3 Green Bay 47 10/12 8:15 ET At San Diego -6 New England 45 Monday Night Football Line 10/13 8:35 ET NY Giants -8 At Cleveland 43
Was fortunate enough to get the following early before the lines moved:Balt +7 (-120)NYG -7STL +14SD -5'I think this is an important thing to learn - predicting how the lines are going to move and gobbling things up early while there is still an edge there. STL and SD have only moved half of a point, although both are important half points and I'll certainly take it. But Balt moving 3 points and NYG moving 2 points are both huge moves. This is something I'm just learning and I feel that I'm improving at, but still have a long way to go. Any advice/thoughts in this area would be very welcome. Also have GB +2 (missed the line move here, it opened +3 or 3' at some places) and Miami +3 (opened 3', missed it here, too)
 
I wasn't as quick as you Jeff, but I did manage to get Baltimore at +5 before it dropped to +4.5 in most places. Still some good value, I think. Will be posting more impressions after I update all of the stats from last week and come up with my own spreads.

 
3-3 last week - Indy comeback spoiled the Hou pick by a pt. :hey: However, the Detroit and KC picks were horrific.

Initial thoughts, complete with wacky, nonsensical blurbs.

Cincy +6 @ Jets- like the way the Bengals are starting to play. Palmer looked OK to me and Housh is starting to haul them in.

Philly -4.5 @ 49ers - O'Sullivan has only completed 49% of his passes the last 2 weeks with 5 picks. And now he gets (arguably) an even better defense in the Eagles. 49er's 2 wins vs Sea and Det w/ combined 1-7 records. The 3 losses vs better teams all by double-digits.

Balt +4.5 @ Indy - The Ravens have an OT loss by 3 and a last minute loss by 3. Indy has had to pull rabbits out of their hats for their 2 come from behind wins by just 3 and 4 pts.

Oak +7.5 @ NO - Short week for NO off of that demoralizing Monday Night loss. Oakland has had 2 weeks to prepare and fresh.

Chi -2.5 @ Atl - The Bears defense should give the Falcons fits, unlike Green Bay last week.

Cle +8 vs NYG - Cleveland and Cincinnati are both starting to get better. I've just got a hunch they keep this one at least this close.

Fire away :tinfoilhat:

 
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Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total 10/12 1:00 ET At New Orleans -7 Oakland Off 10/12 1:00 ET At Indianapolis -4 Baltimore 39 10/12 1:00 ET At NY Jets -6 Cincinnati 45.5 10/12 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay -1.5 Carolina 36.5 10/12 1:00 ET At Minnesota -13 Detroit Off 10/12 1:00 ET Chicago -2.5 At Atlanta 43 10/12 1:00 ET At Houston -3 Miami 45 10/12 1:00 ET At Washington -13.5 St. Louis 44.5 10/12 4:05 ET At Denver -3.5 Jacksonville 48 10/12 4:15 ET Philadelphia -4.5 At San Francisco 42.5 10/12 4:15 ET Dallas -5.5 At Arizona 49 10/12 4:15 ET At Seattle -3 Green Bay 47 10/12 8:15 ET At San Diego -6 New England 45 Monday Night Football Line 10/13 8:35 ET NY Giants -8 At Cleveland 43
Was fortunate enough to get the following early before the lines moved:Balt +7 (-120)NYG -7STL +14SD -5'I think this is an important thing to learn - predicting how the lines are going to move and gobbling things up early while there is still an edge there. STL and SD have only moved half of a point, although both are important half points and I'll certainly take it. But Balt moving 3 points and NYG moving 2 points are both huge moves. This is something I'm just learning and I feel that I'm improving at, but still have a long way to go. Any advice/thoughts in this area would be very welcome. Also have GB +2 (missed the line move here, it opened +3 or 3' at some places) and Miami +3 (opened 3', missed it here, too)
it is something to look at, but it depends on why the lines move. Sometimes it is based on injuries, but the basic premise i have heard is that if you like the favorite, bet it early in the week, and if you like the underdog wait. i believe that many line movements (not based on injuries or something substantial) go higher, for whatever reason. i guess most people tend to bet the favorites. the Balt and NYG move is strange, but i think you can only look so much into it. i also think most "pro's" bet early in the week and the layman bets at game time. My experience though is you can't trust someone because they are a "pro", so following those line shifts doesn't always help
 
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total 10/12 1:00 ET At New Orleans -8 Oakland 47.5 10/12 1:00 ET At Indianapolis -4.5 Baltimore 39 10/12 1:00 ET At NY Jets -6 Cincinnati 45 10/12 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay -1.5 Carolina 36.5 10/12 1:00 ET At Minnesota -13.5 Detroit 46 10/12 1:00 ET Chicago -2.5 At Atlanta 43.5 10/12 1:00 ET At Houston -3 Miami 45 10/12 1:00 ET At Washington -13.5 St. Louis 44 10/12 4:05 ET At Denver -3.5 Jacksonville 48.5 10/12 4:15 ET Philadelphia -4.5 At San Francisco 42.5 10/12 4:15 ET Dallas -5 At Arizona 50 10/12 4:15 ET At Seattle -2 Green Bay 46.5 10/12 8:15 ET At San Diego -6 New England 44.5 Monday Night Football Line 10/13 8:35 ET NY Giants -8 At Cleveland 43
i like DET +13.5 :hifive: minny comin off a rphysical MNF game @ NODAL -5 G-men and skins gettin all the love in the NFC East. the Cowboys win by a couple TDs.SDC -6 this team is due for a big gameCLE +8 this could be a bad pick, but my gut tells me giants are due for a let down, and CLE is due for rebound.
 
last week the sorta system said

Bet against =

BUF +1 - Winner

TB +3 - Draw

Bet For =

CIN +17 - Winner

DETx2 +3.5 - loser

IND -3 - winner

JAC -4 - losser

so 3-2-1 on the week

This week

Due Downs = ARI, BAL, CAR, CHI, WAS

Due Ups = DETx3, HOU, JAC, SEA, STLx3

Of these I would be most likely to play

against ARI +5, WAS -13.5, BAL +4.5

for DET +13.5 , STL +13.5

Right now I'm liking

NO -7.5

SD -5

Dal -5

Det +13.5

STL +13.5

for this week but have not placed a bet yet...not in love with any of it

 
I was going to make this its own thread but figured it'd be best in here -- enjoy/critique if you will:

Quick summary: I've come up with a way to make my own point spreads to spot value. What follows are the Week Six lines along with the actual AVERAGE lines -- enjoy.

Last week: 3-1-1 (For the system -- it was a tad worse than that for what I actually bet on -- I'm not going against the system at all this week, though)

This week?: The stars!!

Alright, here we go. Presentation is self-explanatory. I’ve put little stars next to the lines that are different and that I think offer some value. Get it? Got it? Good!

Note: The lines listed are the home teams line. As if you needed to know...

BAL @ IND *

My line: -1.5

Actual line: -4

DET @ MIN *

My line: -11.5

Actual line: -13

OAK @ NO

My line: -4.5

Actual line: -7.5

CIN @ NYJ

My line: -5.5

Actual line: -5.5

CHI @ ATL

My line: +3

Actual line: +3

CAR @ TB

My line: -2.5

Actual line: -1.5/EV

STL @ WAS

My line: -16

Actual line: -13.5

MIA @ HOU

My line: +1.5

Actual line: +3

JAC @ DEN*

My line: -8

Actual line: -3.5

PHI @ SF *

My line: EV

Actual line: +5

GB @ SEA ***

My line: +8

Actual line: -3

DAL @ ARI

My line: -2.5

Actual line: +5

NE @ SD

My line: -3.5

Actual line: -5.5

NYG @ CLE *

My line: +6.5

Actual line: +8

Week Six plays:

BAL +5 (Jumped on that earlier in the week)

GB +3 (Should be GIVING points, not GETTING them!)

CLE +8 (Big home underdog on Monday night? Yes please!)

DET +13 (Playing a division rival, getting 13 points and bound to break out offensively very, very soon)

 
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So your lines are saying that DAL should be an underdog to ARI?

You see value in the 1.5 point line difference with DET but not the 4.5 in the DEN game?

 
So your lines are saying that DAL should be an underdog to ARI?
Actually, yes. Dallas is incredibly overrated. You haven't realized that yet?
You see value in the 1.5 point line difference with DET but not the 4.5 in the DEN game?
Accidentally overlooked that one. I starred it, but won't be betting it.
I agree they are overrated but I'm not too sure on ARI yet either...other than last week of course they haven't been very impressive at all.
 
So your lines are saying that DAL should be an underdog to ARI?
Actually, yes. Dallas is incredibly overrated. You haven't realized that yet?
You see value in the 1.5 point line difference with DET but not the 4.5 in the DEN game?
Accidentally overlooked that one. I starred it, but won't be betting it.
I agree they are overrated but I'm not too sure on ARI yet either...other than last week of course they haven't been very impressive at all.
Yeah I agree. My little formula system isn't fool proof that's for sure -- but I'm just staying far, far away from that game.. anything that happens wouldn't be much of a surprise! :lmao:
 
Plays I'm close to making

Jags +3.5

Pack +2.5

I might tease Jags, pack, saints

whats everyone looking at?

 
Seattle +8 is a joke line. There's no way anyone can get that if they know what they're talking about. If you come up with an 11-point difference in lines and it's not the biggest bet of your life, you're a fraud.

GL.

 
My 4 team parlay is:

CHI -3 @ ATL

DAL/AZ over 50

NYG/CLE over 43

DEN/JAC under 48

$10 to win $137, I'm in!

 
So your lines are saying that DAL should be an underdog to ARI?
Actually, yes. Dallas is incredibly overrated. You haven't realized that yet?
You see value in the 1.5 point line difference with DET but not the 4.5 in the DEN game?
Accidentally overlooked that one. I starred it, but won't be betting it.
:shrug: you are high, my friend!
Lemme guess, your a Cowboys fan?
good guess. i thought my handle would give that away.i think you miss the boat on the Cowboys. the expectations are too high. they are expected to blow teams out. this is a very solid team that has been playing OK football. they SHOULD beat ARZ by a couple TDs. not sayin thats where the spread should be. but come on, if you think ARZ should be favored you are high! if a team is overrated right now, i'd go with the G-men.
 
So your lines are saying that DAL should be an underdog to ARI?
Actually, yes. Dallas is incredibly overrated. You haven't realized that yet?
You see value in the 1.5 point line difference with DET but not the 4.5 in the DEN game?
Accidentally overlooked that one. I starred it, but won't be betting it.
:confused: you are high, my friend!
Lemme guess, your a Cowboys fan?
good guess. i thought my handle would give that away.i think you miss the boat on the Cowboys. the expectations are too high. they are expected to blow teams out. this is a very solid team that has been playing OK football. they SHOULD beat ARZ by a couple TDs. not sayin thats where the spread should be. but come on, if you think ARZ should be favored you are high! if a team is overrated right now, i'd go with the G-men.
I hear ya. But it's the system I'm using, not necessarily me. I absolutely would not be surprised if the Cowboys won by 40 and I would absolutely not be surprised if the Cardinals won by 40. Either way, I'm not betting either team but figured I'd highlight everything so people could discuss. The system is definitely favoring the Cardinals a tad too highly, but part of the system is PF - PA so it doesn't really penalize them TOO much because they score a lot of points against the amount they give up. I guess we'll have to see.And I wish I was high right now... :confused: Maybe later tonight! :confused:
 
Palmer out

Westbrook out

bet accordingly
thing is, the injuries do not matter. the lines (at least for Palmer) has adjusted from 6 to 7.5.surprised no real move in the PHI game considering: Eagles RB Brian Westbrook (ribs), G Shawn Andrews (back) and WR Reggie Brown (groin) have all been ruled OUT for Sunday's game against the 49ers.

 
Palmer out

Westbrook out

bet accordingly
thing is, the injuries do not matter. the lines (at least for Palmer) has adjusted from 6 to 7.5.surprised no real move in the PHI game considering: Eagles RB Brian Westbrook (ribs), G Shawn Andrews (back) and WR Reggie Brown (groin) have all been ruled OUT for Sunday's game against the 49ers.
It went from 6 to 7 on thegreekI personally think Palmer is worth more than a point on the road for sure.

Interesting on the Eagles game also...tough to bet on SF in my opinion. Martz makes me nervous. The game should remain close though

 
Palmer out

Westbrook out

bet accordingly
thing is, the injuries do not matter. the lines (at least for Palmer) has adjusted from 6 to 7.5.surprised no real move in the PHI game considering: Eagles RB Brian Westbrook (ribs), G Shawn Andrews (back) and WR Reggie Brown (groin) have all been ruled OUT for Sunday's game against the 49ers.
It went from 6 to 7 on thegreekI personally think Palmer is worth more than a point on the road for sure.

Interesting on the Eagles game also...tough to bet on SF in my opinion. Martz makes me nervous. The game should remain close though
agreed on the PHI game. actually it is a 7.5 at the Greek. 7 -115 is his way of not having to lay the flat 7.5 yet. Jazz is already at an 8.
 
Spreads from proline.ca

Code:
DATE	 TIME	  V	 H	  V	  H12-Oct   1:00 PM   OAK   NOS		  -8.512-Oct   1:00 PM   BAL   IND		  -5.512-Oct   1:00 PM   CIN   NYJ		  -712-Oct   1:00 PM   CAR   TBB		  -1.512-Oct   1:00 PM   DET   MIN		  -13.512-Oct   1:00 PM   CHI   ATL   -3.5   12-Oct   1:00 PM   MIA   HOU		  -312-Oct   1:00 PM   STL   WAS		  -14.512-Oct   4:05 PM   JAX   DEN		  -3.512-Oct   4:15 PM   PHI   SFO   -6.5   12-Oct   4:15 PM   DAL   ARZ   -6.5   12-Oct   4:15 PM   GBP   SEA		  -1.512-Oct   8:15 PM   NEP   SDC		  -4.513-Oct   8:35 PM   NYG   CLE   -9.5
 
Spreads from proline.ca

Code:
DATE	 TIME	  V	 H	  V	  H12-Oct   1:00 PM   OAK   NOS		  -8.512-Oct   1:00 PM   BAL   IND		  -5.512-Oct   1:00 PM   CIN   NYJ		  -712-Oct   1:00 PM   CAR   TBB		  -1.512-Oct   1:00 PM   DET   MIN		  -13.512-Oct   1:00 PM   CHI   ATL   -3.5   12-Oct   1:00 PM   MIA   HOU		  -312-Oct   1:00 PM   STL   WAS		  -14.512-Oct   4:05 PM   JAX   DEN		  -3.512-Oct   4:15 PM   PHI   SFO   -6.5   12-Oct   4:15 PM   DAL   ARZ   -6.5   12-Oct   4:15 PM   GBP   SEA		  -1.512-Oct   8:15 PM   NEP   SDC		  -4.513-Oct   8:35 PM   NYG   CLE   -9.5
So what are my good bets here?I'm looking at BAL, SFO, ARZ so far...
 
SuperJohn96 said:
SuperJohn96 said:
Spreads from proline.ca

Code:
DATE	 TIME	  V	 H	  V	  H12-Oct   1:00 PM   OAK   NOS		  -8.512-Oct   1:00 PM   BAL   IND		  -5.512-Oct   1:00 PM   CIN   NYJ		  -712-Oct   1:00 PM   CAR   TBB		  -1.512-Oct   1:00 PM   DET   MIN		  -13.512-Oct   1:00 PM   CHI   ATL   -3.5   12-Oct   1:00 PM   MIA   HOU		  -312-Oct   1:00 PM   STL   WAS		  -14.512-Oct   4:05 PM   JAX   DEN		  -3.512-Oct   4:15 PM   PHI   SFO   -6.5   12-Oct   4:15 PM   DAL   ARZ   -6.5   12-Oct   4:15 PM   GBP   SEA		  -1.512-Oct   8:15 PM   NEP   SDC		  -4.513-Oct   8:35 PM   NYG   CLE   -9.5
So what are my good bets here?I'm looking at BAL, SFO, ARZ so far...
Green Bay all day.EDITED TO NOTE: Wait a second, I'd try and find GB +2 elsewhere. I believe Bookmaker, SI, and a couple others still have it at +2.
 
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Week 1: 4-3

Week 2: 5-1-1

Week 3: 3-2

Week 4: 5-1

Week 5: 2-1-2

TOTAL: 19-8-3

====================================

This week, I'm playing both 0-4 SU/ATS teams drawing large lines. Ive been riding the Skins, but I think this is a good play against coming of four wins and two straight in division.

Detroit +13.5

Saint Louis +13.5

Only two others this week:

SEATTLE -2. I'm having a hard time seeing why people are so enthralled with GB, a team who has lost three in a row and has defensive issues and can't run the ball. We know that the Seahawks have struggled recently on the East Coast, and they did again last week. When returning home the week after playing in the Eastern Time Zone, the Hawks are 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS since 2002, when they moved into Qwest Field.

INDY -4.5

 
So your lines are saying that DAL should be an underdog to ARI?
Actually, yes. Dallas is incredibly overrated. You haven't realized that yet?
You see value in the 1.5 point line difference with DET but not the 4.5 in the DEN game?
Accidentally overlooked that one. I starred it, but won't be betting it.
:lmao: you are high, my friend!
Lemme guess, your a Cowboys fan?
good guess. i thought my handle would give that away.i think you miss the boat on the Cowboys. the expectations are too high. they are expected to blow teams out. this is a very solid team that has been playing OK football. they SHOULD beat ARZ by a couple TDs. not sayin thats where the spread should be. but come on, if you think ARZ should be favored you are high! if a team is overrated right now, i'd go with the G-men.
I hear ya. But it's the system I'm using, not necessarily me. I absolutely would not be surprised if the Cowboys won by 40 and I would absolutely not be surprised if the Cardinals won by 40. Either way, I'm not betting either team but figured I'd highlight everything so people could discuss. The system is definitely favoring the Cardinals a tad too highly, but part of the system is PF - PA so it doesn't really penalize them TOO much because they score a lot of points against the amount they give up. I guess we'll have to see.And I wish I was high right now... :P Maybe later tonight! :thumbup:
ahh, i get it. thanks for the clarification.games i'm lockin in on:NO/OAK overDAL/ARZ overJETSPACKERSBEARS PHINSgood luck everyone!
 
JKL said:
Week 1: 4-3Week 2: 5-1-1Week 3: 3-2Week 4: 5-1Week 5: 2-1-2TOTAL: 19-8-3====================================This week, I'm playing both 0-4 SU/ATS teams drawing large lines. Ive been riding the Skins, but I think this is a good play against coming of four wins and two straight in division.Detroit +13.5Saint Louis +13.5Only two others this week:SEATTLE -2. I'm having a hard time seeing why people are so enthralled with GB, a team who has lost three in a row and has defensive issues and can't run the ball. We know that the Seahawks have struggled recently on the East Coast, and they did again last week. When returning home the week after playing in the Eastern Time Zone, the Hawks are 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS since 2002, when they moved into Qwest Field. INDY -4.5
i know SEA is tough at home normally but, they got annihilated by a giants team that went to OT with the bungles the prev week. i think the wheels are falling off in SEA.
 
I cant believe nobody likes the Texans, they should win this game by 14+ points. I am unloading 3/4 of my season winnings on them.

Texans - 31

Dolphins - 13

 
I came home from the bar last night and got a little "teaser crazy"

NO -1.5

DAL +1

NO -1

CAR +7

JAC +9.5

NO -1

MIN -7

CHI +3

NO -1

NYJ -1

SF +10.5

man I sure hope NO shows up tomorrow :goodposting:

 
I cant believe nobody likes the Texans, they should win this game by 14+ points. I am unloading 3/4 of my season winnings on them.Texans - 31Dolphins - 13
i dont see it. the phins are playing pretty good ball right now. their defense is no joke.
The Dolphins are getting to much credit for beating two overrated teams in the Pats and Chargers over the last three weeks. The Texans are not getting enough credit because they are 0-4. A healthy LT punches in that 1 yard TD last week, and the Dolphins are 1-3. The Texans outplayed the Jaguars all game in a loss at Jacksonville two games ago, and Rosenfels gave the game away last week against Indy. This spread should be 7+ points, and the Texans would still likely cover.This is free money, pass on this game if you dont like extra cash in your pocket.
 
I already made my picks for my poll at the beginning of the week before the QB news, but just found out I am still able to change them. Took Cincy and Seattle...lines are still locked in at 6 1/2 and 2 1/2...should I switch over to New York and Green Bay???

 
3-1 last week (Lost GB giving only 3 and only bet it because I got the "good" spread)

I just bet the Giants -1/2 and over 29.5 in the Carolina / TB game.

This was a 7 point teaser where I gave a little more vig to bring teh Giants down. I believe this bet will win more than 75% of the time as both events are more than 85% covers

 
So your lines are saying that DAL should be an underdog to ARI?
Actually, yes. Dallas is incredibly overrated. You haven't realized that yet?
You see value in the 1.5 point line difference with DET but not the 4.5 in the DEN game?
Accidentally overlooked that one. I starred it, but won't be betting it.
I agree they are overrated but I'm not too sure on ARI yet either...other than last week of course they haven't been very impressive at all.
Arizona plays WAY better at home than on the road. Arizona crushed the Dolphins at home BTW.
 
I cant believe nobody likes the Texans, they should win this game by 14+ points. I am unloading 3/4 of my season winnings on them.Texans - 31Dolphins - 13
i dont see it. the phins are playing pretty good ball right now. their defense is no joke.
The Dolphins are getting to much credit for beating two overrated teams in the Pats and Chargers over the last three weeks. The Texans are not getting enough credit because they are 0-4. A healthy LT punches in that 1 yard TD last week, and the Dolphins are 1-3. The Texans outplayed the Jaguars all game in a loss at Jacksonville two games ago, and Rosenfels gave the game away last week against Indy. This spread should be 7+ points, and the Texans would still likely cover.This is free money, pass on this game if you dont like extra cash in your pocket.
Can we stop saying things like "free money" and "lock of the year?" Those things don't exist and really, when you say them, you lose any credibility that you may have had prior to that. I'll say in advance also that if the Texans do cover, that does not mean that you were right when you said it was free money so please don't come back in here and post that you told me so or something. Unloading 3/4th of your season winnings on one game is not exactly a sharp move, either.
 
Week 1: 1-1

Week 2: 2-1-1

Week 3: 1-2

Week 4: 2-1

Week 5: 3-0

Total to date: 9-5-1

I wasn't too hot about the linelup this week but I have found a couple worth my time.

Balti +5.5

Philly -5.5

No reasoning this week as I am very pressed for time. sorry.

 
I cant believe nobody likes the Texans, they should win this game by 14+ points. I am unloading 3/4 of my season winnings on them.

Texans - 31

Dolphins - 13
i dont see it. the phins are playing pretty good ball right now. their defense is no joke.
The Dolphins are getting to much credit for beating two overrated teams in the Pats and Chargers over the last three weeks. The Texans are not getting enough credit because they are 0-4. A healthy LT punches in that 1 yard TD last week, and the Dolphins are 1-3. The Texans outplayed the Jaguars all game in a loss at Jacksonville two games ago, and Rosenfels gave the game away last week against Indy. This spread should be 7+ points, and the Texans would still likely cover.This is free money, pass on this game if you dont like extra cash in your pocket.
good point. they stopped LT on the 1. i'm tellin you this team is not last yrs phins. they have some momentum and confidence, and Ronnie Brown. HOU may win and cover, but i dont see it as a "lock".
 
3-1 last week (Lost GB giving only 3 and only bet it because I got the "good" spread)

I just bet the Giants -1/2 and over 29.5 in the Carolina / TB game.

This was a 7 point teaser where I gave a little more vig to bring teh Giants down. I believe this bet will win more than 75% of the time as both events are more than 85% covers
Nope.
 
Week 6 Plays:

TB/Car O 36.5

Phi -4.5

Week 6 Writeups:

TB/Car O 36.5

* Since Gruden took over TB and Fox took over Car (both in 2002), the Over between the two teams has gone a mere 5-7 on an average line of 36.

* However, games in Tampa have gone 4-2 to the over, including 4 straight overs. (Since 2004)

* Not only has this game gone over in TB the last 4 straight years, it has destroyed the over. On an average line of 36.5, the final score has been 52. Carolina has eclipsed 30 points in 3 of the 4, while TB has eclipsed 20 in 3 of the 4. On average, 12 first quarter points have been scored and 26 first half points have been scored. Needing only 11 more to eclipse the average total in the 2nd half. On average, by the end of the 3rd quarter, 40 points have been scored, well exceeding the posted total.

* Tampa Bay's Overs have gone 8-1 in the last 3 seasons in home divisional games. On an average total of 37.5, the average final scores have totaled 44 points.

* In Tampa Bay's last 9 home divisional games, the fewest points TB have scored was 23, save the 2 games started by Gradkowski as QB (6 and 14). On average, they scored 28 points.

* In Tampa Bay's last 10 home divisional games, on average they allowed 24 ppg, ignoring the last 2 w/ Atlanta (where Atlanta scored only 3 and 9 points).

* Thus, an average final score of 28+24 = 52 points

* In Carolina's last 12 road divisional games, on average they scored 32 points, ignoring two road starts by Weinke and Carr (10 and 16 respectively).

* Ignoring those same two contests, Carolina allowed an average of 19 points.

* Thus, an average final score of 32+19 = 51 points

* Under Fox, Carolina is 9-3 for Overs in road divisional games. On an average line of 39.5, the net finals have been 47 points.

* In any of these 12 games where the total was set at 40 or fewer points, the over has hit 6-0, eclipsing the total by an average of 15 points. Granted, 4 of the 6 featured TB, which we mentioned earlier, but the other two, NO and ATL, both went over the posted total by 15 and 10.5 points respectively.

Another angle is previously playing in a low scoring game in Denver the week before:

* Teams who played their last game in Denver w/ a total of 38 or above and the game went under are 14-4-1 to the Over back at home since 2001, on average exceeding a 41 point total by 7 points.

* The 4 losses were the result of vastly 1 sided games: 26-7, 29-3, 19-3 and 28-3.

* If the total in the prior game in Denver was over 41 points, their next game went over 9-1-1 since 2001.

* Since 2003, the over is 10-1 in those games, exceeding a 41 point total by an avg of 12 points.

* Since 1990, if a team played in Denver on a total over 41 points and both team combined for only 34 or fewer points, the over in that team's next game at home is 8-0 ATS.

This line is dead on to what you would expect from these two teams. Especially when you see that TB was just off of a 13-16 loss in Denver, and Carolina is 1-3-1 for Overs so far this season. It makes anyone who is looking at "what have you done for me lately" to hesitate on the Over. Not to mention the average posted totals between these teams in their last 10 meetings is dead on with 36.5. But let's investigate more:

TB's total has gone over 8-1 in 9 home divisional games the last 3 seasons, but they did go Under in their one game so far this season, week 2 vs. Atl. So looking at that game:

* ATL started a rookie QB in his first road game ever, against the infamous Tampa 2.

* Ryan's first 6 drives resulted in two turnovers and 4 punts, almost all drives 3 and outs and advancing no closer than the TB 36.

* ATL made many halftime adjustments, and conducted two sustained drives in the 2nd half, taking the ball to the TB 9 and TB 6 yard lines before settling for 2 FGs.

* In total, ATL had 3 trips inside the TB 15 yard line and came away with only 3 FGs, not surprising for a rookie in his first road game.

* Meanwhile, TB was able to put up 24 points themselves, though 10 were off of turnovers.

In addition, as stated above, the Overs in these two teams last 4 meetings in Tampa Bay have all hit. But let's investigate the QBs of those two teams during that time:

* Wk 17, 2007: Total 36, M. Moore (Car) vs L. McCown (TB) - both throw 2 TDs, final score totaled 54 points

* Wk 3, 2006: Total 34.5, J. Delhomme (Car) vs. C. Simms (TB) - both throw 1 TD, final score totaled 50 points

* Wk 9, 2005: Total 36.5, J. Delhomme (Car) vs. C. Simms (TB) - both throw 1 TD, final score totaled 48 points

* Wk 16, 2004: Total 39, J. Delhomme (Car) vs. B. Griese (TB) - 7 combined passing TDs, final score totaled 57 points

The games in Carolina featured even spottier QBs: two years ago Tampa started Gradkowski, and last year Carolina started Carr.

The point of this analysis is that these games in Tampa went well over the posted total, and none of the four featured Delhomme vs. Garcia. The two best QBs on either team (need to see the health of Garcia to validate).

I believe that if weather does not impact this game too much, we will see an over. Please use your own best judgement and money management given all of the information I have shared with you and make and informed and well thought out play on the game.

A quick note about the final score landing on 36, 37 or 38:

You definitely want to get 36.5 on this game. As I've said in past e-mails regarding the number 37:

In games where the total is lined between 34 and 39 (all games played where the total was equal to or between those numbers), the final score which was landed on more than any other was 37. Both teams combined to score 37 points roughly 4.9% of the time. Now you may look at that number and consider it to be small. However, think of this:

Both teams combined to score 39 points 1.2% of the time

Both teams combined to score 38 points 2.6% of the time

Both teams combined to score 36 points 2.1% of the time

Both teams combined to score 35 points 2.2% of the time

Therefore, having Over 36.5 would allow you to win on 37, a number that occurs twice as often as 36, 38 or 39.

In addition, in games lined 36, 36.5 or 37:

37 occurs 4.4% of the time, which is 2.4 times as often as 36 occurs (1.8%). The whole key is to win and not to push, so try to get that 36.5.

Phi -4.5

* Philadelphia under Andy Reid is 4-0 SU and ATS as road favorites on the West Coast

* Under Andy Reid, Philly is 6-1 ATS vs. a non-divisional opponent after a loss to a divisional opponent, including 5-1 ATS on the road

* Under Andy Reid, Philly is 5-1 ATS following a loss as a home favorite in their last game, including 3-0 ATS as a favorite.

* Since 2000, the Eagles are 18-5 ATS following a loss

* If favored, they are 10-2 ATS

* I won't mention the specific system, but the Eagles qualify for a 16-4-1 subset of a system since 1990, including 9-0 ATS since 2000, covering an average -4 line by 8 points and winning by an avg of 11 points.

* As a larger subset, they are 33-10-2 ATS since 1990 and in non-divisional games since 2000, they are 14-0 SU and 11-2-1 ATS, covering a -6 point line by an average of 8 points.

Short and simple as time is short. This is a play that I have had on my radar, and though not the strongest of my plays, it was one that I could not find good reasons to remove. I will take Philly and hope for a 5 point cover.

 
I cant believe nobody likes the Texans, they should win this game by 14+ points. I am unloading 3/4 of my season winnings on them.Texans - 31Dolphins - 13
i dont see it. the phins are playing pretty good ball right now. their defense is no joke.
The Dolphins are getting to much credit for beating two overrated teams in the Pats and Chargers over the last three weeks. The Texans are not getting enough credit because they are 0-4. A healthy LT punches in that 1 yard TD last week, and the Dolphins are 1-3. The Texans outplayed the Jaguars all game in a loss at Jacksonville two games ago, and Rosenfels gave the game away last week against Indy. This spread should be 7+ points, and the Texans would still likely cover.This is free money, pass on this game if you dont like extra cash in your pocket.
Can we stop saying things like "free money" and "lock of the year?" Those things don't exist and really, when you say them, you lose any credibility that you may have had prior to that. I'll say in advance also that if the Texans do cover, that does not mean that you were right when you said it was free money so please don't come back in here and post that you told me so or something. Unloading 3/4th of your season winnings on one game is not exactly a sharp move, either.
Do you really think by "free money" I, or anyone else means the bet is actually 100%? You know, you dont have to use words like "sharp" or "square" to know what you are talking about. You and others only use terms like that to act like you know what you are talking about for board cred, something i could care less about.Also, betting 3/4 of seasons winnings is a good play if you are confident in the game. Look at it like a hand in hold em, you get your money in the pot when you have the best hand. Well, the Texans are pocket Aces.
 
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I cant believe nobody likes the Texans, they should win this game by 14+ points. I am unloading 3/4 of my season winnings on them.Texans - 31Dolphins - 13
i dont see it. the phins are playing pretty good ball right now. their defense is no joke.
The Dolphins are getting to much credit for beating two overrated teams in the Pats and Chargers over the last three weeks. The Texans are not getting enough credit because they are 0-4. A healthy LT punches in that 1 yard TD last week, and the Dolphins are 1-3. The Texans outplayed the Jaguars all game in a loss at Jacksonville two games ago, and Rosenfels gave the game away last week against Indy. This spread should be 7+ points, and the Texans would still likely cover.This is free money, pass on this game if you dont like extra cash in your pocket.
Can we stop saying things like "free money" and "lock of the year?" Those things don't exist and really, when you say them, you lose any credibility that you may have had prior to that. I'll say in advance also that if the Texans do cover, that does not mean that you were right when you said it was free money so please don't come back in here and post that you told me so or something. Unloading 3/4th of your season winnings on one game is not exactly a sharp move, either.
Do you really think by "free money" I, or anyone else means the bet is actually 100%? You know, you dont have to use words like "sharp" or "square" to know what you are talking about. You and others only use terms like that to act like you know what you are talking about for board cred, something i could care less about.Also, betting 3/4 of seasons winnings is a good play if you are confident in the game. Look at it like a hand in hold em, you get your money in the pot when you have the best hand. Well, the Texans are pocket Aces.
1. Aces are a hell of a lot bigger favorite than any team in the NFL vs. a point spread will ever be.2. Saying that you could care less means that you do in fact care. You want to say "couldn't care less." 3. How'd this work out for you? :confused:
 

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